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Asphalt Supply OutlookAsphalt Supply Outlook20092009
Clint RybakClint RybakConocoPhillips CompanyConocoPhillips Company
Crude Oil Supply/DemandCrude Oil Supply/Demand
Crude Oil SupplyCrude Oil Supply2007 World Crude & Gas Oil2007 World Crude & Gas Oil
SuppliedSuppliedMillions of Barrels Per DayMillions of Barrels Per Day
Non-OPEC
OPEC
FSU
36.8
36.2
12.8
Total: 85.8 MMB/DSource: US DOE
Non-OPEC
OPEC
FSU
37.3
37.2
13.0
Total: 87.5 MMB/D
2008 Forecasted World2008 Forecasted WorldCrude & Gas Oil SuppliedCrude & Gas Oil SuppliedMillions of Barrels Per DayMillions of Barrels Per Day
Crude Oil SupplyCrude Oil Supply2008 Actual World Crude &2008 Actual World Crude &
Gas Oil SuppliedGas Oil SuppliedMillions of Barrels Per DayMillions of Barrels Per Day
Non-OPEC
OPEC
FSU
37.1
35.9
12.8
Total: 85.8 MMB/DSource: US DOE
Non-OPEC
OPEC
FSU
37.3
37.2
13.0
Total: 87.5 MMB/D
2008 Forecast World Crude2008 Forecast World Crude& Gas Oil Supplied& Gas Oil Supplied
Millions of Barrels Per DayMillions of Barrels Per Day
Crude Oil SupplyCrude Oil Supply2008 Actual World Crude &2008 Actual World Crude &
Gas Oil SuppliedGas Oil SuppliedMillions of Barrels Per DayMillions of Barrels Per Day
Non-OPEC
OPEC
FSU
37.1
35.9
12.8
Total: 85.8 MMB/DSource: US DOE
Non-OPEC
OPEC
FSU
36.7
36.2
12.9
Total: 85.75 MMB/D
2009 Forecast World Crude2009 Forecast World Crude& Gas Oil Supplied& Gas Oil Supplied
Millions of Barrels Per DayMillions of Barrels Per Day
World Oil Consumption
3540
45505560
65707580
859095
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Million
barrels
per day
-1.5-1.0
-0.50.00.51.0
1.52.02.53.0
3.54.04.5
Million
barrels
per day
China United States Other Countries
Total Consumption
Annual Growth
Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2008
Forecast
OPEC Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Millionbarrelsper day
Forecast
Note: Shaded area represents 1997-2007 average (2.9 million barrels per day)
Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2008
Crude Oil PricesCrude Oil Prices
Light-Heavy Crude PricesLight-Heavy Crude Prices
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1Q 0
2
3Q 0
2
1Q 0
3
3Q 0
3
1Q 0
4
3Q 0
4
1Q 0
5
3Q 0
5
1Q 0
6
3Q 0
6
1Q 0
7
3Q 0
7
1Q 0
8
3Q 0
8
WTI
MAYA
BOW
WTI-BOW
Light / Heavy DifferentialLight / Heavy DifferentialAs A Percentage of WTIAs A Percentage of WTI
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1Q05
1Q06
1Q07
1Q08
RefiningRefining
650-
1000+
650+
1000-
U. S. Refining CapacityU. S. Refining Capacity
14
14.5
15
15.5
16
16.5
17
17.5
18
18.5
1980 1995 2000 2007
# Of Refineries
Crude Dist Cap
Last New U. S. Refinery Built in 1976Source: Oil & Gas Journal
319
175 158131
U. S. Asphalt Refining CapacityU. S. Asphalt Refining Capacity
72
98
60
42
1980 1995 2000 2007
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
# Refiner ies
Asphalt Capacity
Production Range: 600 B/D to 50,000 B/DSource: Oil & Gas Journal
U. S. Refining Coking CapacityU. S. Refining Coking Capacity
50
60
56
1.68
1.96
2.37
44464850525456586062
1995 2000 20080
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5# Refiner ies w/Cokers
Coker Capacity MMBPD
Source: Oil & Gas Journal & EIA
Products PricingProducts Pricing
Crude/Product PricesCrude/Product Prices
0
2040
60
80100
120
140160
1Q '0
21Q
'03
1Q '0
41Q
'05
1Q '0
61Q
'07
1Q '0
8
WTI
Crude/Product PricesCrude/Product Prices
0
2040
60
80100
120
140160
1Q '0
21Q
'03
1Q '0
41Q
'05
1Q '0
61Q
'07
1Q '0
8
WTIGasoline
Crude/Product PricesCrude/Product Prices
0
2040
60
80100
120
140160
1Q '0
21Q
'03
1Q '0
41Q
'05
1Q '0
61Q
'07
1Q '0
8
WTIGasolineDiesel
Crude/Product PricesCrude/Product Prices
0
2040
60
80100
120
140160
1Q '0
21Q
'03
1Q '0
41Q
'05
1Q '0
61Q
'07
1Q '0
8
WTIGasolineDieselGC 3%
Crude/Product PricesCrude/Product Prices
Product MarginsProduct Margins3:2:1 Crack Spread3:2:1 Crack Spread
Product MarginsProduct Margins
Product MarginsProduct Margins
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
1Q'05
1Q'06
1Q'07
1Q'08
Chicago 3:2:1
Gas
Diesel
Asphalt SupplyAsphalt Supply
Historical AsphaltHistorical AsphaltSupply/DemandSupply/Demand
Millions Tons - LiquidMillions Tons - Liquid
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1980 1995 2000 2003 2005 2006 2007
Supply
Demand
Source: Oil & Gas Journal/Asphalt Institute
Asphalt Inventory HistoryAsphalt Inventory HistoryMM BarrelsMM Barrels
Supply Outlook (2009)Supply Outlook (2009)
No reason to believe there will be extendedNo reason to believe there will be extendedshortagesshortages
Will vary by region based on supplier operabilityWill vary by region based on supplier operability Larger light/heavy crude differential will produceLarger light/heavy crude differential will produce
more asphalt, smaller one decreases itmore asphalt, smaller one decreases it Light product refining margins will likely driveLight product refining margins will likely drive
crude runscrude runs Outlook is low gasoline, higher distillate marginsOutlook is low gasoline, higher distillate margins Higher asphalt prices relative to crude willHigher asphalt prices relative to crude will
produce more asphaltproduce more asphalt Asphalt will have to compete with theAsphalt will have to compete with the
hydrocarbon value of coker feedhydrocarbon value of coker feed