Program Requirements• No First-Time Homebuyer Requirement• No Recapture Tax• $353,360 Max Purchase Price• Income Limit $88,340• Primary Homes Only• Homebuyer Education is Required• Homebuyer Education is Required

Eligible Loans• Conforming 30-Year Fixed• 680 Min FICO Score• 45 Max DTI

Example*

*Scenario based on buyer with 740 FICO and may vary based on individual borrower’s situation. Rates subject to change without notice.

Program Requirements• No First-Time Homebuyer Requirement• No Recapture Tax• $353,360 Max Purchase Price• Income Limit $88,340• Primary Homes Only• Homebuyer Education is Required• Homebuyer Education is Required

Eligible Loans• Conforming 30-Year Fixed• 680 Min FICO Score• 45 Max DTI

Example*

*Scenario based on buyer with 740 FICO and may vary based on individual borrower’s situation. Rates subject to change without notice.

A LOOK AT 2015 WITH JIM BELFIORE

POSITIONING FOR SUCCESSFINANCE CORNER

You’re an Arizona Builder, We’re an Arizona Lender.

“As an Arizona based lender we always welcome and

recognize the value of working with builders who are

building Arizona communities. Working with other local

companies helps Arizona to build stronger communities.”

-Bill Rogers, CEO of Homeowners Financial Group

EXPERIENCE THE HFG DIFFERENCE

with local and in-house Processing,

Underwriting & Funding. Call us

today to find out how we can help

you sell more homes and give your

clients better service!

Produced by Desert Lifestyle Publishing • 480.460.0996 • www.DesertLifestyle.net

BILL ROGERSFounder & CEO of Homeowners Financial Group

All loan products and loan amounts may not be available in your area and are subject to credit and property approval pursuant to guidelines. Information is subject to change without prior notice. Other restrictions and limitations may apply. Homeowners Financial Group USA, LLC is licensed in AZ: Mortgage Bankers License No. BK 0906222, NMLS#93718; CA: Department of Business Oversight under the Finance Lenders Law License No. 603 F033; ID: Mortgage Broker/Lender License MBL-5879; NM: New Mexico Mortgage Loan Company License 03068; ND Money Broker License MB102538; OR Mortgage Lending License ML-5229

WA: Consumer Loan Company License CL-93718; MN: Residential Mortgage Originator License MN-MO-93718; MT: Mortgage Broker/Lender License 93718; NE: Mortgage Banker License NE93718 and registered in CO: Mortgage Company Registration.

Arizona HomebuilderF E B R U A R Y | M A R C H 2 0 1 5

Corporate Office | 16427 N. Scottsdale Rd. Suite #145 | Scottsdale, AZ 85254 | www.homeownersfg.com | 480.305.8550

2015 Belfiore Market Vision

Two years ago, following the most significant downturn in housing the Metro Phoenix Area has ever experienced, the housing market showed promise of a strong rebound. In one year, 2012, demand for new homes jumped an astounding 61%. The following year, 2013, demand increased a bit more but disappointed industry proponents who expected more. Last year, was a downer – quite literally – with demand falling below both 2012 and 2013 levels and far short of expectations.

This year will be different. Growth is set to continue and here are the reasons:

• More people are shopping for homes: More people have visited sales offices in the last two years than during any other year since 2006. People want to buy.

• The inhibitors of purchasing are becoming less inhibitive: Mortgage programs are expanding, thus expanding the potential homebuyer pool, and more wanna-be buyers are saving downpayments to get into a new home.

• Housing product is diversifying, as is the market areas where new housing is available: Builders are offering attached and detached housing, infill, suburban, and exurban housing, at price points from slightly more than $100,000 to several million dollars. Product, and the market areas where new product can be purchased, is more diverse today than it has been since 2008.

• Employment and population growth are back: The latest employment and population growth figures published reflect more than 54,000 jobs year-over-year, and nearly 70,000 new people in the last year. Over the next two years, more than 60,000 net new jobs are expected and 200,000 more people, according to Moody’s Analytics.

2015 Market questions posed to Belfiore Real Estate Consulting Founder and President Jim Belfiore:

Q: What is the downside to 2015?

A: The Metro Phoenix Area had a “ho-hum” performance over the last two years, and little appears imminant that will change the course. Homebuilders have overbuilt and are sitting with too much speculative supply (an opportunity for homebuyers!); too much supply has pushed the net price of homes down, which may create appraisal issues for homebuilders and lenders this spring; and buyers have been cash-poor and indecisive. These factors have created doubt within the industry that 2015 is the year the recovery will continue.

Q: What is the upside to 2015?

A: The upside is clear in the data. People are anxious for change, and sales office traffic shows it. They want to buy a new home but they are still working out how they will do it. What is the best way to finance? How much money do I really need to make the jump? How do I sell my existing home? They have been grappling with these matters for the last couple of years and more will figure out how to make the move this year. What about new buyers? Educate them on the 3% down products now available and help them get into their first home!

Nothing has changed about the desirability of Phoenix. There has never been more traffic in the history of the state with Super Bowl hype, and annual big events! Outsiders want out of their dreary, rainy climates – we have sunshine, golf, expansive land – all types of housing for them. The climate is wonderful, geographically the market is well located, and Arizona is a pro-growth state. The housing market is poised for a strong multi-year breakthrough.

Q: What should realtors, builders, and lenders be doing to promote, engage, and “sell” Arizona?

A: Be pro-active. We are at a “place” in time where people need help solving the challenges they have. The downturn didn’t just take the air out of them; it knocked them down. They are now getting up and are preparing for the biggest life commitments since the downturn. Realtors, builders, and lenders need to be pro-active and client centric; help your clients to understand the obstacles they face and to educate and overcome those obstacles to get the market moving. Simply saying, “Come back and see me in six months when you figure it out…” is going to delay the recovery for all of us.

Q: What would you tell an investor to watch for over the next 24 months?

A: I would advise investors to watch for opportunities in the blossoming infill market areas and to watch for opportunities in the exurban areas. Infill is coming alive now and herein, with infrastructure already in place, are ripe areas for development where a buyer base already exists. Those that understand what product is most appropriate where, is the key in infill locations.

Everyone has all but written off places like Maricopa, South Buckeye, and like markets. This is a tremendous mistake. These markets will be home to tremendous growth as demand picks up. Sure, everyone would like to live in Chandler, Gilbert, Peoria, and Scottsdale, but costs are higher in these areas, meaning home prices are out of reach or soon will be for a large percentage of the population. Growth will be pushed back to these established but young market areas in outlying Phoenix.

To contact Jim Belfiore, please view www.belfiore.com

As they say, if the receiver is out of position, there won’t be a TD. This phrase has also become the mantra for most of those that analyze the housing market numbers beyond the headlines, at least here in Metro Phoenix. Most of us realize that we really have little to say about the global economic conditions, the aggregate confidence of consumers,

the demographics of the population, or even the price of land, development costs, or construction materials and labor.

In other words, for the most part housing producers and servicers pretty much have to “go with the flow” of conditions that surround their marketplace.

On the other hand, these producers and servicers do have control over the positioning of their product offerings against the demand for their products that is being generated by the marketplace as it is. While it is true that you might sell a certain amount of “ice cream to Eskimos,” you might just be better off with hot coffee as your product.

In order to know how you can maximize the advantage of product positioning in 2015, you have to be able to understand the product positioning of the market leaders, whether you are seeking the demon-strated demand or a market void. I suspect this holds true whether your product is housing, windows, mortgage loans, or ice cream.

The starting point is to look at the nuts and bolts of the demonstrated demand in your marketplace today. We look at the price distribution, the square footage distribution, and the price per square foot distribution when analyzing demand in a submarket.

First we look at closing prices which typically represent the “net” prices after most discounts, incentives or other builder contributions. Each blue diamond represents one new-home closing that occurred in November, with the price scale on the left side of the graphic.

Next we look at the product size evidenced by the livable square footage of the homes closed, the range of sizes and how the dis-tribution is scattered across the range. Finally, we look at the price per square

foot distribution and associated concentrations. This type of analysis needs to be examined on a very specific geographic or product-type-size basis versus a high-level overview.

We also compare the resale housing demand using this same formula to understand how the builder opportunity might be impacted by lower priced resale inventory. Proof of our original assumption that “positioning is everything” will be found in a careful analysis of the product positioning of the regions’ bestselling communities and Master plans. Paraphrased from The Phoenix Housing Market Letter – an RL Brown Reports monthly publication.

For additional insight and market data call Greg Burger at480-614-0211 or visit our website at www.RLBrownreports.com.

Positioning is Everthing...

FHA reduces mortgage insurance premiums!

Chief Economist at realtor.com®, Jonathan Smoke, recently commented that “In 2015, increases in employment opportunities will empower younger buyers to return to the market and fuel the continued housing recovery. If access to credit improves, we could see substantially larger numbers of young buyers in the market.” Smoke’s comments were made prior to the recent announcement of reduced annual mortgage insurance premiums (MIPs) for single family housing by FHA. I believe these lower MIPs will improve access to

credit for a number of households and will likely be a catalyst to increased activity by first-time homebuyers!

On January 9th, FHA announced that it will be reducing its single family MIPs for FHA case numbers assigned on or after January 26, 2015. This change applies to loans with terms greater than 15 years. For FHA loans with loan-to-values greater than 95% the annual MIP will decrease from

1.35% of the loan balance to 0.85% and for loan-to-values at or below 95% the premium will decrease from 1.30% to .80%.

Since 2010, FHA has progressively increased their MIPs and the National Association of Realtors reports that the percent share of first-time buyers using FHA-backed loans shrank from 56% to 39%. This upcoming reduction in premiums certainly makes FHA more competitive, so I expect to see FHA’s market share to rise in 2015.

I applaud this change by FHA which will significantly expand access to mortgage credit for households and lower the cost of home ownership!

Tim Jorden is the Senior Vice President of Sales at Homeowners Financial Group and oversees the Arizona Builder Division. He can be reached at TJ@homeownersfg.com.

New Home Sales Price Distribution – November Escrow Closings

GREG BURGERRL Brown Reports TIM JORDEN

Senior Vice President of SalesHomeowners Financial Group

AZHB recently sat down with Jim Belfiore, President and Founder of Belfiore Real Estate Consulting, to get his input on 2015.

“Over several years, Jim and his team have earned our respect and trust due to their exceptional performance. Belfiore Real Estate Consulting delivers a valuable and diverse product that the Standard Pacific team utilizes in a variety of ways. We rely heavily on the “New Home Subdivision Database” and BREC is our primary source

for Market Feasibility Studies when analyzing potential land acquisitions. The monthly Knowledgebase publications and Jim’s timely response to urgent questions are also valuable tools when staying abreast of the market. Their service, response and the accuracy of the data is reliable.”

PAT MORONEYStandard Pacific Homes of

Arizona, Inc.

“Our decisions are only as good as the quality of the information we use to make them. Jim is our go-to guy for anything related to residential projects. He is consistently accurate and insightful.”

JOHN GRAHAMPresident and CEOSunbelt Holdings

Source: Vol 361 of Magic Pro – New COE Dataset

725,000

625,000

525,000

425,000

325,000

225,000

125,000

Product positioning is the

make or break deal … and will be so

in 2015

What is 2015 Agents Benefiting Children? Scottsdale’s 2030 local children’s charities fundraiser for the RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE COMMUNITYHow does your Team work? Pick a captain, pick your team, start fundraising and compete to WIN!Team Olympiad Championship: Friday, April 24th at Scottsdale Stadium. A fun, competitive day for participants!

• All Residential Teams come loaded for competition; wear your proudest company logo.• Volleyball, Baggo, Bocce Ball, Quarterback Challenge , Basketball AND MORE!

www.scottsdale2030.org

We care for your home, while you care for your family

2015 Belfiore Market Vision

Two years ago, following the most significant downturn in housing the Metro Phoenix Area has ever experienced, the housing market showed promise of a strong rebound. In one year, 2012, demand for new homes jumped an astounding 61%. The following year, 2013, demand increased a bit more but disappointed industry proponents who expected more. Last year, was a downer – quite literally – with demand falling below both 2012 and 2013 levels and far short of expectations.

This year will be different. Growth is set to continue and here are the reasons:

• More people are shopping for homes: More people have visited sales offices in the last two years than during any other year since 2006. People want to buy.

• The inhibitors of purchasing are becoming less inhibitive: Mortgage programs are expanding, thus expanding the potential homebuyer pool, and more wanna-be buyers are saving downpayments to get into a new home.

• Housing product is diversifying, as is the market areas where new housing is available: Builders are offering attached and detached housing, infill, suburban, and exurban housing, at price points from slightly more than $100,000 to several million dollars. Product, and the market areas where new product can be purchased, is more diverse today than it has been since 2008.

• Employment and population growth are back: The latest employment and population growth figures published reflect more than 54,000 jobs year-over-year, and nearly 70,000 new people in the last year. Over the next two years, more than 60,000 net new jobs are expected and 200,000 more people, according to Moody’s Analytics.

2015 Market questions posed to Belfiore Real Estate Consulting Founder and President Jim Belfiore:

Q: What is the downside to 2015?

A: The Metro Phoenix Area had a “ho-hum” performance over the last two years, and little appears imminant that will change the course. Homebuilders have overbuilt and are sitting with too much speculative supply (an opportunity for homebuyers!); too much supply has pushed the net price of homes down, which may create appraisal issues for homebuilders and lenders this spring; and buyers have been cash-poor and indecisive. These factors have created doubt within the industry that 2015 is the year the recovery will continue.

Q: What is the upside to 2015?

A: The upside is clear in the data. People are anxious for change, and sales office traffic shows it. They want to buy a new home but they are still working out how they will do it. What is the best way to finance? How much money do I really need to make the jump? How do I sell my existing home? They have been grappling with these matters for the last couple of years and more will figure out how to make the move this year. What about new buyers? Educate them on the 3% down products now available and help them get into their first home!

Nothing has changed about the desirability of Phoenix. There has never been more traffic in the history of the state with Super Bowl hype, and annual big events! Outsiders want out of their dreary, rainy climates – we have sunshine, golf, expansive land – all types of housing for them. The climate is wonderful, geographically the market is well located, and Arizona is a pro-growth state. The housing market is poised for a strong multi-year breakthrough.

Q: What should realtors, builders, and lenders be doing to promote, engage, and “sell” Arizona?

A: Be pro-active. We are at a “place” in time where people need help solving the challenges they have. The downturn didn’t just take the air out of them; it knocked them down. They are now getting up and are preparing for the biggest life commitments since the downturn. Realtors, builders, and lenders need to be pro-active and client centric; help your clients to understand the obstacles they face and to educate and overcome those obstacles to get the market moving. Simply saying, “Come back and see me in six months when you figure it out…” is going to delay the recovery for all of us.

Q: What would you tell an investor to watch for over the next 24 months?

A: I would advise investors to watch for opportunities in the blossoming infill market areas and to watch for opportunities in the exurban areas. Infill is coming alive now and herein, with infrastructure already in place, are ripe areas for development where a buyer base already exists. Those that understand what product is most appropriate where, is the key in infill locations.

Everyone has all but written off places like Maricopa, South Buckeye, and like markets. This is a tremendous mistake. These markets will be home to tremendous growth as demand picks up. Sure, everyone would like to live in Chandler, Gilbert, Peoria, and Scottsdale, but costs are higher in these areas, meaning home prices are out of reach or soon will be for a large percentage of the population. Growth will be pushed back to these established but young market areas in outlying Phoenix.

To contact Jim Belfiore, please view www.belfiore.com

As they say, if the receiver is out of position, there won’t be a TD. This phrase has also become the mantra for most of those that analyze the housing market numbers beyond the headlines, at least here in Metro Phoenix. Most of us realize that we really have little to say about the global economic conditions, the aggregate confidence of consumers,

the demographics of the population, or even the price of land, development costs, or construction materials and labor.

In other words, for the most part housing producers and servicers pretty much have to “go with the flow” of conditions that surround their marketplace.

On the other hand, these producers and servicers do have control over the positioning of their product offerings against the demand for their products that is being generated by the marketplace as it is. While it is true that you might sell a certain amount of “ice cream to Eskimos,” you might just be better off with hot coffee as your product.

In order to know how you can maximize the advantage of product positioning in 2015, you have to be able to understand the product positioning of the market leaders, whether you are seeking the demon-strated demand or a market void. I suspect this holds true whether your product is housing, windows, mortgage loans, or ice cream.

The starting point is to look at the nuts and bolts of the demonstrated demand in your marketplace today. We look at the price distribution, the square footage distribution, and the price per square foot distribution when analyzing demand in a submarket.

First we look at closing prices which typically represent the “net” prices after most discounts, incentives or other builder contributions. Each blue diamond represents one new-home closing that occurred in November, with the price scale on the left side of the graphic.

Next we look at the product size evidenced by the livable square footage of the homes closed, the range of sizes and how the dis-tribution is scattered across the range. Finally, we look at the price per square

foot distribution and associated concentrations. This type of analysis needs to be examined on a very specific geographic or product-type-size basis versus a high-level overview.

We also compare the resale housing demand using this same formula to understand how the builder opportunity might be impacted by lower priced resale inventory. Proof of our original assumption that “positioning is everything” will be found in a careful analysis of the product positioning of the regions’ bestselling communities and Master plans. Paraphrased from The Phoenix Housing Market Letter – an RL Brown Reports monthly publication.

For additional insight and market data call Greg Burger at480-614-0211 or visit our website at www.RLBrownreports.com.

Positioning is Everthing...

FHA reduces mortgage insurance premiums!

Chief Economist at realtor.com®, Jonathan Smoke, recently commented that “In 2015, increases in employment opportunities will empower younger buyers to return to the market and fuel the continued housing recovery. If access to credit improves, we could see substantially larger numbers of young buyers in the market.” Smoke’s comments were made prior to the recent announcement of reduced annual mortgage insurance premiums (MIPs) for single family housing by FHA. I believe these lower MIPs will improve access to

credit for a number of households and will likely be a catalyst to increased activity by first-time homebuyers!

On January 9th, FHA announced that it will be reducing its single family MIPs for FHA case numbers assigned on or after January 26, 2015. This change applies to loans with terms greater than 15 years. For FHA loans with loan-to-values greater than 95% the annual MIP will decrease from

1.35% of the loan balance to 0.85% and for loan-to-values at or below 95% the premium will decrease from 1.30% to .80%.

Since 2010, FHA has progressively increased their MIPs and the National Association of Realtors reports that the percent share of first-time buyers using FHA-backed loans shrank from 56% to 39%. This upcoming reduction in premiums certainly makes FHA more competitive, so I expect to see FHA’s market share to rise in 2015.

I applaud this change by FHA which will significantly expand access to mortgage credit for households and lower the cost of home ownership!

Tim Jorden is the Senior Vice President of Sales at Homeowners Financial Group and oversees the Arizona Builder Division. He can be reached at TJ@homeownersfg.com.

New Home Sales Price Distribution – November Escrow Closings

GREG BURGERRL Brown Reports TIM JORDEN

Senior Vice President of SalesHomeowners Financial Group

AZHB recently sat down with Jim Belfiore, President and Founder of Belfiore Real Estate Consulting, to get his input on 2015.

“Over several years, Jim and his team have earned our respect and trust due to their exceptional performance. Belfiore Real Estate Consulting delivers a valuable and diverse product that the Standard Pacific team utilizes in a variety of ways. We rely heavily on the “New Home Subdivision Database” and BREC is our primary source

for Market Feasibility Studies when analyzing potential land acquisitions. The monthly Knowledgebase publications and Jim’s timely response to urgent questions are also valuable tools when staying abreast of the market. Their service, response and the accuracy of the data is reliable.”

PAT MORONEYStandard Pacific Homes of

Arizona, Inc.

“Our decisions are only as good as the quality of the information we use to make them. Jim is our go-to guy for anything related to residential projects. He is consistently accurate and insightful.”

JOHN GRAHAMPresident and CEOSunbelt Holdings

Source: Vol 361 of Magic Pro – New COE Dataset

725,000

625,000

525,000

425,000

325,000

225,000

125,000

Product positioning is the

make or break deal … and will be so

in 2015

What is 2015 Agents Benefiting Children? Scottsdale’s 2030 local children’s charities fundraiser for the RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE COMMUNITYHow does your Team work? Pick a captain, pick your team, start fundraising and compete to WIN!Team Olympiad Championship: Friday, April 24th at Scottsdale Stadium. A fun, competitive day for participants!

• All Residential Teams come loaded for competition; wear your proudest company logo.• Volleyball, Baggo, Bocce Ball, Quarterback Challenge , Basketball AND MORE!

www.scottsdale2030.org

We care for your home, while you care for your family

Program Requirements• No First-Time Homebuyer Requirement• No Recapture Tax• $353,360 Max Purchase Price• Income Limit $88,340• Primary Homes Only• Homebuyer Education is Required• Homebuyer Education is Required

Eligible Loans• Conforming 30-Year Fixed• 680 Min FICO Score• 45 Max DTI

Example*

*Scenario based on buyer with 740 FICO and may vary based on individual borrower’s situation. Rates subject to change without notice.

Program Requirements• No First-Time Homebuyer Requirement• No Recapture Tax• $353,360 Max Purchase Price• Income Limit $88,340• Primary Homes Only• Homebuyer Education is Required• Homebuyer Education is Required

Eligible Loans• Conforming 30-Year Fixed• 680 Min FICO Score• 45 Max DTI

Example*

*Scenario based on buyer with 740 FICO and may vary based on individual borrower’s situation. Rates subject to change without notice.

A LOOK AT 2015 WITH JIM BELFIORE

POSITIONING FOR SUCCESSFINANCE CORNER

You’re an Arizona Builder, We’re an Arizona Lender.

“As an Arizona based lender we always welcome and

recognize the value of working with builders who are

building Arizona communities. Working with other local

companies helps Arizona to build stronger communities.”

-Bill Rogers, CEO of Homeowners Financial Group

EXPERIENCE THE HFG DIFFERENCE

with local and in-house Processing,

Underwriting & Funding. Call us

today to find out how we can help

you sell more homes and give your

clients better service!

Produced by Desert Lifestyle Publishing • 480.460.0996 • www.DesertLifestyle.net

BILL ROGERSFounder & CEO of Homeowners Financial Group

All loan products and loan amounts may not be available in your area and are subject to credit and property approval pursuant to guidelines. Information is subject to change without prior notice. Other restrictions and limitations may apply. Homeowners Financial Group USA, LLC is licensed in AZ: Mortgage Bankers License No. BK 0906222, NMLS#93718; CA: Department of Business Oversight under the Finance Lenders Law License No. 603 F033; ID: Mortgage Broker/Lender License MBL-5879; NM: New Mexico Mortgage Loan Company License 03068; ND Money Broker License MB102538; OR Mortgage Lending License ML-5229

WA: Consumer Loan Company License CL-93718; MN: Residential Mortgage Originator License MN-MO-93718; MT: Mortgage Broker/Lender License 93718; NE: Mortgage Banker License NE93718 and registered in CO: Mortgage Company Registration.

Arizona HomebuilderF E B R U A R Y | M A R C H 2 0 1 5

Corporate Office | 16427 N. Scottsdale Rd. Suite #145 | Scottsdale, AZ 85254 | www.homeownersfg.com | 480.305.8550