Application of Risk Assessment in DRR Planning in Indonesia (Anas Lutfi)

8/3/2019 Application of Risk Assessment in DRR Planning in Indonesia (Anas Lutfi)

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APPLICATION OF RISK ASSESMENTIN RISK REDUCTION PLANNINGN RISK REDUCTION PLANNING

ASEAN REGIONAL RISK ASSESMENT SCOOPINGWORKSHOP 11 13 OCTOBER 2011ORKSHOP , 11 13 OCTOBER 2011


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KONDISIKONDISI TEKTONIK INDONESIATEKTONIK INDONESIA

2

Potensial Earthquacke , Tsunami , Landslide

Active volcanoes : 128 in Indonesia


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ECONOMY LOSSES

No Type Disaster

Direct Not Direct Total

1Tsunami Aceh & Nias, 26 Des

2.92 1.53 4.45

2 Flu Burung (2004 -2005) 0.6 - 0.6

3 Merapi explosion April 06 -TAD- -TAD-20,000 orang

mengungsi

4 Gempa Yogyakarta 27 Mei 06 2.5 0.7 3.1

5 Mud Flow Sidoarjo 29 Mei 06 1.2 1.8 3

sunam angan aran u . . .

7 Flood Jabodetabek 0.7 - 0.7

8 Earth uacke South Jawa --- 0.8

9 Earthquacke West Sumatera -- - 2.2

TOTAL (Des 2004-Oct 2009), especilally large disasaterUS $ 15 Billion

(Rp.150 T)


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Bahaya/

Pemicu/ Trigger

Hazards

Risiko/ BENCANA/disaRisk ster

Vulnerability/Kerentanan


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Gov. Inisiative

Identifikasi Risiko (H/V)

Objective setting

Def.ofTargetRisk

ObjSettingforRiskManagement

Analisis Risiko Dev.Risk Scenario

Risk Planninge ng s r er aan

FormulationofMasterplan

Revision

Risk

Transfer

Risk

Prevention

Risk

ReductionRisk

Acceptance

Monitoring/Re-Examination

VerificationofDM


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Hope#1NoRisk

Hope#3

NoRiskHope#5

RiskStillAcsess HumanPre are

Hope#2

RiskDecrease Hope#4RiskDecrease

Insurrance

DISASTER

RISK


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Istablish mechanism coordination low consept forDRR

Integration consept to Development Planning Increase changing and management information Promote Education and public awarness Partner development with stakeholders and publicpartiscipationartiscipation Advocation


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METHODOLOGY

Compiler Primary and Secondery

Profil ProfilProfil Ca acit

pace ro oc a - conomy n ras ruc ure

Geography

GeologyHidrolo

Historical

DemographySosial Profile

Area Bulited

TransportationEner

Local Goverrnment

NationalGovernment

ClimateEcology

Culture ProfileEconomy

Water flow manageResidu manage

Private SectorCommunity

Threat Map Vulnaribility Map Capacity Map

Risk Map


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USE OFSE OFCOMPILERCOMPILER PROPROCCESESSSCOMPILERCOMPILER PROPROCCESESSSCOMPILERCOMPILER ::COMPILERCOMPILER :: USE OFASSESSMENTRESULTS ANDMAPUSE OFASSESSMENTRESULTS ANDMAP

1.1. Analysis of the level ofdetail

2.Minimum Scale

1.1. Analysis of the level ofdetail

2.Minimum Scale

FREEFREE AKADEMIAKADEMICYCY ,3td,3td,,etcetc ((but should thegovernmentresponsibility)

FREEFREE AKADEMIAKADEMICYCY ,3td,3td,,etcetc ((but should thegovernmentresponsibility)

1:250.000

3. Number of LifeExposed

1:250.000

3. Number of LifeExposed

..

LOCALGOVERNMENTLOCALGOVERNMENT SYNCHRONIZATIONYNCHRONIZATIONGOVERNMENTRESPONSIBILITYGOVERNMENTRESPONSIBILITY


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POTENSIAL DISASTER MAPPING (H)

ANALYSIS OF INTENSITYNALYSIS OFMAINPARAMETER MAPS HAS ON

SNI

PROBABILITY

BASE OF

HISTORICAL DATA

NOTE:MINIMALPARTISIPATORY FROM

ANAL YSISMETHOD

CLASSIFICATION

(3 CLASS)

WEIGHTING PARTICIPATORY

GROUNDCHECK RY FROM

LOCALWISDOM ,PROFF AND

PARAMETEROUTPUT

HAZARD MAP

BASE ON 3td

CLASS

MAP SCALE

1 :250.000 (

PROVINCE MAP

MAP SCALE1:50.000(SUMATERA)

LOCAL GOVTO DISTRIC MAP) 1:25.000 (JAWA &NTT)

MAP SCALE1:10.000(SIMEULUE)


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INDICATOR THREAT MAP NON SNINO THREAT NON SNI INDICATOR1. TSUNAMI 1. ELEVASI (TOPOGRAFI, HIGH INUNDATION)

2. BATHYMETRI

3. COASTAL VEGETASION (SUPPORTING)

(USE TSUNAMI RISK ASSESSMENT GUIDE TRA)

2. COASTAL EROSIAN 1. HIGH WAVE

2. MORFOLOGI PANTAI

3. BATHYMETRIC

4. SEA FLOW

5. COASTAL VEGETASION

3. DROUGHT 1. METEOROLOGY RAINFALL

2. GROUNG WATER BASIN

3. PROSENTASTION COVERED VEGETATION PER RIVER FLOW

REGION

. .

SATELITE)

2. DROUGH INDEX

3. DISTANCE FROM SETTLEMENTS AND ROAD

. .

2. LANDUSE (OPEN SPACE)

3. RAINFALL


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VULNERABILITY MAP (V)

ANALYSIS OF MAINPARAMETER

SOCIAL CULTURE

ECONOMY PHYSICAL

ANAL YSIS METHOD WEIGHTING /SCORING PARTISIPATORY FOR EACHINDICATOR PARAMETER

PARAMETER OUTPUT VULNERABILITY MAP IN VARIOUS CLASSES (3 CLASS)


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INDICATOR VULNERABILITY MAP(V)

No. GROUPS DATA RESOURCEo. DATA RESOURCEI SOCIAL CULTURE

1. Population Density

2. Population Sensitivity:

BPS?

Gender

Head of family base a gender

Defect

Podes (online Simpadu)

Can proxy

Susenas

age groups Susenas

II ECONOMY

1. Rice fields

2. plantation

3. Farmland

4. fish ponds

Contribution of GDP per sector (13 sectors)


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INDIKATOR PETA KERENTANAN(V)

No KELOMPOK SUMBER DATAo. KELOMPOK SUMBER DATAIII. PHYSICAL

1.home

Podes

.

3. critical facilities Survei lapangan

IV. ECOLOGY

1. protected forest

2. natural forests

3. Mangrove forest (mangrove)

.

5. bush

Note: for detailment according with needen local area


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BOBOT UNTUK INDIKATOR PETA

An in Kebakaran E idemi/

V Gempa TsunamiGunung

ApiPuting

Beliung

Keker ingan Banji r Longsor Abras iKebakaran

HutanGedung/

Pemukiman

Gagal

Tehnologi

Konflik

Sosial

Wabah

PenyakitSOCIAL

CULTURE 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 30 40 40 40 40

PHYSICAL 30 25 25 30 0 25 25 25 10 30 25 25 25

LECOLOGY

0 10 10 0 30 10 10 10 40 0 10 10 10

Note:

summaries.


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CAPACITY MAP (C)

ANALYSIS OFMAINPARAMETER

PRIORITY AND INDICATOR HFA

ANAL YSISMETHOD

1. COMPILING DATA SECONDER

2. SCORING PARTISIPATORY (FGD)

PARAMETEROUTPUT

SCORE/LOCAL CAPACITY


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RISK MAP (R)

PARAMETERARAMETERANALISISUTAMA

, ,

METODE OVERLAY GISANALISISPARAMETEROUTPUT

CAPASITY ON

VARIOUS

MAP SCALE

1 :250.000

MAP SCALE

1:50.000

1. ACTION MAPS

FOR LOCAL

CLASS (3

CLASS)

(PROVINCE TO

DISTRICT

SCALE)

MAP SCALE1:25.000

(JAWA & NTT)

2. SYNCRONIZE

NAT-LOCAL

POLICY

Catt: untuk Peta RisikoKabuten/Kota tingkatkedetilannya sampai

1:10.000(SIMEULUE)

Catt: Simelue punya

.

FOR

COMMUNITY

desa Catt: Simelue punyadata dengan skalabesar


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Region Criteria Factor H Factor V Factor CA High risk Every year Number Not yet of

:: Tabular

oo oo

highest 0.7 2.00 m

lon time

person

threatment1.000 pers

losses R .

Not yet of DMRegulation

Not et of

coverred >

10 days

ect

100 M

ecology

damage

hazard map

Not yet of of

socialization

planning

ect


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PROVINSI BENGKULU


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EARTHQUAKE MAP

n ca or:

Skale of MMI

Factor:

Condision soil and

rock Condision fault,

structure geology

Sumber: Kertapati, 1999


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TSUNAMI

n cator:

Tsunami Intensity

,

Factor:

,

Landuse

coastal

Sumber: data MCRMP


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VOLCANO MAP

I dik tndikator: Volcanic Eruption IntencityFactor:

Historical eruption

Sumber: ESDM 2008


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TORNADO

Indicatorndicator Fujita Tornado Damage Scale

Faktor: Kelembapan

Open coverred area

Sumber: BMKG


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DROUGHT

Indicator: SPI Value Scale

Factor: Rainfall

Type soil

Landuse

Sumber: UNEP


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FLOOD

Indictor: Frequency FLood

Factor: Rainfall

Used land

Slope

Wide region rivers

Sumber: Konsep RTRW 2009


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LANDSLIDE

Indikator: Freqeuency Landslide

Factor: Slope

Type soil

Landuse

Canopi

Sumber: ESDM 2008


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FOREST FIRES

I di tndicator:

FrequencyFactor:

Landuse

Factor of fires easily

Sumber: UNEP 2006


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RISK INDEX

KABUPATEN SKOR KELAS RAWAN RANKINGNASIONALKOTA PEKANBARU 70 TINGGI 146

INDRAGIRI HULU 61 TINGGI 201

INDRAGIRI HILIR 57 TINGGI 229

KAMPAR 56 TINGGI 241

PELALAWAN 53 TINGGI 262

ROKAN HULU 50 TINGGI 288

ROKAN HILIR 46 TINGGI 311

KUANTAN SENGINGI 43 TINGGI 346

SIAK 37 TINGGI 385KOTA DUMAI 37 TINGGI 386

BENGKALIS 35 TINGGI 397


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CHALLENGES

NOT ALL LOCAL LEVEL GOV. HAVE

DM Regulation

Hazard ma Socialization Planning


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THANK YOU

Direktorat Pengurangan Risiko Bencana

DEPUTIPENCEGAHANDANKESIAPSIAGAAN

Graha 55,Jl.TanahAbang IINo.55JakartaPusat

www.bnpb.go.id

Documents

Application of Risk Assessment in DRR Planning in Indonesia (Anas Lutfi)