Application of Extended Range Forecast for Climate Risk Management

on crops in Coastal and Western Agro-ecosystems of Tamil Nadu

Dr. V. GeethalakshmiProfessor

Agro Climate Research CentreTamil Nadu Agricultural University

Coimbatore

Objectives

• To assess past climate anomalies, pattern and their impacts on agriculture with reference to extreme weather events.

• To establish a system to provide climate information on time to selected locations for climate risk management in agriculture.

• To train the target groups on the application of extended range weather forecast on farm decision making to reduce the climatic risks

• Feed back analysis for refinement and improvement of the forecast and application of forecast information on decision making

• Development of decision support system

Location Map of Study area

Normal Rainfall & Temperature of Study region

Western Zone

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Tem

per

atu

re i

n °

C

Maximum Temperature Minimum Temperature

Cauvery Delta Zone

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Tem

pera

ture

in

°C

Maximum Temperature Minimum Temperature

NWZ

NEZ

CDZ

WZ

HRZ

HZSZ

Extreme weather events – 2007 & 2008

Rf : Oct 23rd, 2007: 107.5 mm Drought : SWM, 2008: -32 % of LPA

Excess rainfallOctober 07 : 178 % of LPA (358 mm against 200 mm)December 07 : 231 % LPA (371 mm against 160 mm)March 08, : 220 % of LPA (160 mm against 50 mm)

DroughtApril 08: - 83% of LPA (8.4 mm against 50 mm)July 08: - 96 % of LPA (4.4 against 109 mm)

Choice of CropsUpland Irrigated cotton

- Coimbatore

Lowland Rice - Nagapattinam

Irrigated Groundnut – Nagapattinam

Rainfed maize - Coimbatore

Crop Season Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Rice short duration                        

 medium duration                        

Maize Purattasi pattam                      

cotton Winter                        

groundnut

Thai pattam                       

  Adi pattam                        

Cropping calendar

Sowing/Establishment Vegetative Flowering Maturity Harvest

         

Progress made so far

• Village Selected:– Cotton : Avinashi, Coimbatore– Maize : Pollachi, Coimbatore– Rice : P.R.Puram, Nagapattinam– Groundnut : Vettaikaran iruppu, Nagapattinam

• Farmers selection : in progress.• Collection of weather data & Crop Yield data

(1970 – 2000)• Assessing the past climate anomalies, pattern and

their impacts on agriculture : In Progress

Past Experience

• ENSO based SCF and Farm Decision making

• Economic Impact Analysis Project

• Experimental Agromet Advisory Services

• Weather based forewarning of Downy Mildew – ICAR funded project

Weather Summary (Observed and Predicted)– Banana (2005)

Stage Operation Weather Prediction Impact

Establishment(March)

Fertilizer application

Rainfall 45mm forecasted2.0 mm received

Low nutrient use efficiency

Vegetative(April – May)

Intercultural operation

Rainfall 60 mm forecasted77.2 mm received

Helped in planning intercultural operations

Flowering(July-August)

Propping Wind speed

July : 10.2 KMPH -10.6 KMPHAug : 10.1 KMPH

- 9.3 KMPH

Correct wind speed forecast helped in giving propping recommendation and saved the crops from lodging.

Weather Summary (Observed and Predicted)– Tomato 2005

Stage Operation Weather Prediction Impact

Entire crop growth period(June - October)

Irrigation Rainfall August and October well predicted. June, July, September – Under predicted

Helped in saving irrigation water.Interfered with irrigation planning

Vegetative(July-August)

Plant protection

Rainfall Occurrence predicted well

Helped in plant protection decision making

Temperature Increase in temperature well predicted.

Correct temperature forecasts helped in controlling the sucking pest.

Wind speed Correctly predicted

Helped in scheduling the spraying operation

Maturity (September-October)

Drainage Rainfall Heavy rainfall well predicted

Helped in reducing the yield loss.

Harvesting Rainfall Heavy rainfall well predicted

Harvest of even half ripped fruits were recommended to avoid fruit damage

Economic Impact of AAS on manures and fertilizers

AAS farmers used lesser FYM in 2004 and 2005 (4.5 %)But more in 2006 (10 %)

AAS- used less fertilizer 2004 – 13.6 % - Rs. 4662005 – 15 % - Rs. 77

AAS- used more fertilizer2006 – 9 % - Rs. 247

No difference in FYM usage

AAS- used more fertilizer

2004 – 26.5 % - Rs. 1673

2005 – 29.1 % - Rs. 2106

2006 – 15.2 % - Rs. 1210

AAS farmers used lesser FYM (7.5 %)

AAS- used less fertilizer 2004 – 11.7 % - Rs. 2562005 – 14 % - Rs. 72

AAS- used more fertilizer2006 – 4.3 % - Rs. 68

Tomato & Cotton - Well Distributed rainfall during flowering and fruiting in 2006

Economic Impact of AAS on Pesticide usage

AAS farmers used lesser plant protection chemical

Saving2004 – Rs. 762005 – Rs. 922006 – Rs. 71

AAS- spent more on plant protection chemicals

2004 – Rs. 44

2006 – Rs. 145

AAS farmers used lesser plant protection chemicals

Saving2004 – Rs. 942005 – Rs. 1682006 – Rs. 297

Weather based pest and disease management

Furadon sucker treatment

Economic Impact of AAS on Labour usage

Saving of 2 Men labour on irrigation

One labour more for fertilizer application

Four labour more for intercultural operation

Saving of 2 men labours on irrigation

Saving of 1 labour on fertilizer application

Saving of 5 – 8 labours on intercultural operations

More labour for harvest

Weather based operations and labour management

Saving of 1- 2 men labours on irrigation

Saving of 1 men labour on fertilizer application

Saving of 2 men & 2 women labours on pesticide application

More labour for harvest

Irrigation water saving - 2004

Crop AAS Non-AAS No. of irrigations saved

Quantity of irrigation water saved

Saving in terms of money

Banana 7 – 8 irrigationsSaving of one irrigation on 03.08.2004Saving of one irrigation on 14.09.2004Saving of one irrigation on 24.09. 2004.

9 – 10 irrigations were given

2-3 irrigation saved.

450 m3 Rs. 7440(6750 + 240 + 450)

Tomato 7 – 8 irrigationsSaving of one irrigation on 03.08.2004Saving of one irrigation on 14.09.2004Saving of one irrigation on 24.09. 2004.

9 – 10 irrigations were given

2-3 irrigation saved.

450 m3 Rs. 7440(6750 + 240 + 450)

Cotton 8 irrigationsSaving of one irrigation on 03.08.2004Saving of one irrigation on 14.09.2004Saving of one irrigation on 24.09. 2004.

10 irrigations were given

2 irrigation saved.

300 m3 Rs. 4960(Water cost :4500 + Labour : 160 + Fuel: 300)

1. Marginal saving on seed material

2. No difference in FYM usage

3. AAS farmers used more fertilizers (15.2 % to 29.7%)

4. AAS farmers spent more on plant protection chemicals

5. Saving of 2 Men labour on irrigation

6. One labour more for fertilizer application

7. Four labour more for intercultural operation

Input Usage by farmers - Banana

1. AAS farmers used more seed materials

2. AAS farmers used lesser FYM (7.5 %)

3. AAS- used less fertilizer : 2004 – 11.7 % - Rs. 256

2005 – 14 % - Rs. 72

AAS- used more fertilizer : 2006 – 4.3 % - Rs. 68

4. AAS farmers used lesser plant protection chemical

5. Saving of 2 men labours on irrigation

Saving of 1 labour on fertilizer application

Saving of 5 – 8 labours on intercultural operations

More labour for harvest

Input Usage by farmers - Tomato

Input Usage by farmers - Cotton

1. Marginal saving on seed material

2. AAS farmers used lesser FYM (7.5 %)

AAS- used less fertilizer : 2004 – 11.7 % - Rs. 256 2005 – 14 % - Rs. 72

AAS- used more fertilizer : 2006 – 4.3 % - Rs. 68

3. AAS farmers used lesser plant protection chemicals

4. Saving of 1- 2 men labours on irrigation

Saving of 1 men labour on fertilizer application

Saving of 2 men & 2 women labours on pesticide application.

More labour for harvest

Use of AAS bulletin on increase in yield (Qts/ac) - Banana

Farmercategory

2004 2005

AAS Non % Diff AAS Non % Diff

Marginal* 194 * * 155 *

Small 217 18631

(16.9%)175 152

23.2(15.3%)

Medium 213 20112.1

(6.0%)172 161

11.7(7.3%)

Large 204 2013.1

(1.5%)165 161

4.3(2.7%)

Overall 212 19516.9

(8.7%)172 158

14.2(9.0%)

Use of AAS bulletin on increase in yield (Qts/ac) - Tomato

Farmercategory

2004 2005 2006

AAS Non % Diff AAS Non % Diff AAS Non % Diff

Marginal 123 1184.4

(1.2%)112 100

12(12%)

123 10617

(16%)

Small 127 10125.5

(25.7%)112 99

13(13%)

124

1195

(4%)

Medium 136 11818

(15.2%)

122

10122

(22%)

136

11323

(20.3%)

Large 111 9417

(21.9%)104 81

23(29%)

112 1102

(2%)

Overall 129 11019

(17.2%)111 99

12(12%)

123 11213

(10.4%)

Use of AAS bulletin on increase in yield (Qts/ac) - Cotton

Farmercategory

2004 2005

AAS Non % Diff AAS Non % Diff

Marginal 6.9 6.40.5

(7.8%)8.3 7.9

0.4(5.2%)

Small 7.5 6.21.3

(20.9%)8.2 7.6

0.6(8.5%)

Medium 6.6 6.00.6

(10%)8.5 7.8

0.7(8.7%)

Large * 7.0 * * 7.8 *

Overall 7.2 6.21.0

(16.1%)8.3 7.7

0.6(7.8%)

Gross Return - Banana

Farmercategory

2004 2005

AAS Non % Diff AAS Non % Diff

Marginal * 126175 * * 72835 *

Small 140816 11879022026

(18.5%)82090 76956

5134(6.7%)

Medium 123455 11312010335(9.1%)

85024 817423282

(4.0%)

Large 118495 10289215602

(15.2%)80187 74865

5322(7.1%)

Overall 127549 11422713322

(11.6%)82434 76000

5834(7.6%)

Gross Return - Tomato

Farmercategory

2004 2005 2006

AAS Non % Diff AAS Non % Diff AAS Non % Diff

Marginal 79845 84320-4475

(-5.3%)74160 67100

7060(10.5%)

85562 6196523597(%)

Small 85105 6913815967

(23.1%)75084 62544

12540(20%)

76907 5796218944(%)

Medium 90717 816269091

(11.1%)73909 70159

3750(5.3%)

81043 7039910644(%)

Large 66800 5640010400

(18.4%)65625 58629

6996(11.9%)

54083 83170-29086

(%)

Overall 85781 7398211799

(15.9%)74214 68078

6136(9.0%)

78610 69280 (%)

Gross Return - Cotton

Farmercategory

2004 2005

AAS Non % Diff AAS Non % Diff

Marginal 14776 172212445

(-14.1%)15990 15107

883(8.9%)

Small 16146 16417-271

(-1.6%)16010 14212

1798(13%)

Medium 14526 15735-1209

(-7.6%)16287 14639

1648(11.3%)

Large * 18900 * * 12467 *

Overall 15543 16352-809

(-4.9%)16028 14359

1669(11.6%)

Cost of Cultivation - Banana

Farmer

category

2004 2005

AAS Non % Diff AAS Non % Diff

Marginal * 12311 * * 29704 *

Small 15979 15196783(%)

32410 31728682

(2.1%)

Medium 16100 14760

1339(%)

33884 305153369

(9.9%)

Large 17846 124805005(%)

33410 32476933

(2.8%)

Overall 16641 13686

6468(%)

33361 311312230

(6.7%)

Cost of Cultivation - Tomato

Farmercategory

2004 2005 2006

AAS Non % Diff AAS Non % Diff AAS Non % Diff

Marginal 12852 14346-1495(-10.4)

16028 17219-1191

(-6.9%)19400 20520

-1120(-5.4%)

Small 12985 13899-915

(-6.5%)14901 16428

-1526(%)

18204 19053-849

(-4.4%)

Medium 14542 134071135

(8.4%)15336 16587

-1251(-7.5%)

18357 172121145

10.9-%)

Large 13577 115552022

(17.4%)14924 15851

-927(5.8%)

17650 159101740

(10.9%)

Overall 13472 13331142

(1.1%)15238 16508

-1270(-7.7)

18402 18173229

(1.3%)

Cost of Cultivation - Cotton

Farmercategory

2004 2005

AAS Non % Diff AAS Non % Diff

Marginal 10415 12762-2347

(-18.3%)8742 8843

-102(-11%)

Small 10786 12476-1690

(-13.5%)8478 9166

-688(-7.5%)

Medium 10359 11785-1426

(-12.1%)9190 9319

-129(-1.3%)

Large * 12234 * * 9667 *

Overall 10624 12275-1651

(-13.5%)8629 9202

-573(-15%)

Net Return - Banana

Farmercategory

2004 2005

AAS Non % Diff AAS Non % Diff

Marginal * 113864 * * 43131 *

Small 124867 10359421243

(20.5%)49680 45228

4452(9.8%)

Medium 107355 983598996

(9.1%)51140 51228

-88(3.5%)

Large 101009 9041310597

(11.7%)46777 42389

4388(10.4%)

Overall 111212 1043586854

(6.6%)49199 47861

3705(8.1%)

Net Return - Tomato

Farmercategory

2004 2005 2006

AAS Non % Diff AAS Non % Diff AAS Non % Diff

Marginal 66993 699747622

(-4.2%)58132 49881

8251(16.5%)

66162 4144524718(%)

Small 72121 5523916882

(30.5%)60182 47646

12536(26.3%)

58702 41091217611(%)

Medium 76175 682207955

(11.6%)58573 53572

5001(9.3%)

62686 531879499(%)

Large 53223 448458378

(18.7%)50701 42778

7923(18.5%)

36433 4672608251

(16.5%)

Overall 72309 6065111658

(19.2%)58975 51569

7406(14.4%)

60216 510199196(%)

Net Return - Cotton

Farmercategory

2004 2005

AAS Non % Diff AAS Non % Diff

Marginal 4362 4460-98

(-2.9%)7026 6597

429(6.5%)

Small 5360 39401420(36%)

7315 6529786

(12%)

Medium 4168 3950218

(5.5%)5524 5158

365(7.0%)

Large * 6666 * * 6100 *

Overall 4919 4077842

(20.6%)7059 6102

957(15.6%)

Banana (More investment – More return)

Additional cost

(Rs./ac)

Yield increase (q/ac)

Additional income

(Rs./ac)

Monitory benefit

(Rs./ac)

1699 16.9 10140 8441

Cotton (More investment – More return)

Farmers Category

Added cost

(Rs./ac)

Yield increase

(q/ac)

Additional income

(Rs./ac)

Monitory benefit

(Rs./ac)

Marginal 281 0.5 1100 819

Small 171 1.3 2860 2689

Saving cost

(Rs./ac)

Yield Increase (q/ac)

Increased income

(Rs./ac)

Monitory gain

(Rs./ac)

386 0.7 1540 1926

Tomato (Less investment – More return)

Farmers Category

Reduced cost

(Rs./ac)

Yield increase

(q/ac)

Additional income

(Rs./ac)

Monitory benefit

(Rs./ac)

Marginal 393 14.6 9636 10029

Small 40 21.9 14454 14494

Medium 415 9.9 6534 6949

Average 283 15.5 10208 10491

Cotton -Medium farmers (Less investment – More return)

Tomato -large farmers (More investment – Less return)

Additional cost

(Rs./ac)

Yield reduction

(q/ac)

Reduced income

(Rs./ac)

Monitory loss

(Rs./ac)

1739 6.0 3600 5339

Conclusion

Tomato – More sensitive to weather

Weather forecast helped in monitory gain up to Rs. 15000 /ac