14
Application of Decision Calculus in Allocation of Marketing Budgets Based on Markov Chains H.R. Koosha & A. Albadvi * Hamidreza Koosha Assistant Professor, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Iran, [email protected] Amir Albadvi, Professor, Tarbiat Modares University, Iran, [email protected] Keywords 1 ABSTRACT Decision Calculus (DC) is a judgment-based approach which considers managers’ opinion in formulation of real world situations. In DC, manager’ mind and the model are aggregated to each other. Little in 1970 introduced the philosophy of decision calculus and it has been used widely in formulation of problems in marketing. The main purpose of this paper is to provide an application for DC in allocation of marketing budgets as a critical activity in marketing. In case of data availability and environmental complexity, researchers suggest the use of mixed models to face such situations to allocate marketing budgets. Mixed models are models which use all the data from the past and managers’ judgment altogether to provide more effective models. In this paper we suggest a simple mixed model. Then we provide a more complex model based on DC and Markov Chains Models (MCM). The suggested models are predicted to be effective in better decision making on allocation of customer relationship budgets. © 2014 IUST Publication, IJIEPM. Vol. 25, No. 1, All Rights Reserved * Corresponding author. Amir Albadvi Email: [email protected] May 2014, Volume 25, Number 1 pp. 109-122 http://IJIEPM.iust.ac.ir/ International Journal of Industrial Engineering & Production Management (2014) Decision Calculus (DC), Customer relationship budgets, Management judgment, Markov chain, Transition matrix, [ Downloaded from ijiepm.iust.ac.ir on 2022-05-03 ] 1 / 14

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Page 1: Application of Decision Calculus in Allocation of

Application of Decision Calculus in Allocation of

Marketing Budgets Based on Markov Chains

H.R. Koosha & A. Albadvi

**

Hamidreza Koosha Assistant Professor, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Iran, [email protected]

Amir Albadvi, Professor, Tarbiat Modares University, Iran, [email protected]

Keywords 1 ABSTRACT

Decision Calculus (DC) is a judgment-based approach which

considers managers’ opinion in formulation of real world situations.

In DC, manager’ mind and the model are aggregated to each other.

Little in 1970 introduced the philosophy of decision calculus and it

has been used widely in formulation of problems in marketing. The

main purpose of this paper is to provide an application for DC in

allocation of marketing budgets as a critical activity in marketing. In

case of data availability and environmental complexity, researchers

suggest the use of mixed models to face such situations to allocate

marketing budgets. Mixed models are models which use all the data

from the past and managers’ judgment altogether to provide more

effective models. In this paper we suggest a simple mixed model.

Then we provide a more complex model based on DC and Markov

Chains Models (MCM). The suggested models are predicted to be

effective in better decision making on allocation of customer

relationship budgets.

© 2014 IUST Publication, IJIEPM. Vol. 25, No. 1, All Rights Reserved

**

Corresponding author. Amir Albadvi Email: [email protected]

May 2014, Volume 25, Number 1

pppp.. 110099--112222

hhttttpp::////IIJJIIEEPPMM..iiuusstt..aacc..iirr//

IInntteerrnnaattiioonnaall JJoouurrnnaall ooff IInndduussttrriiaall EEnnggiinneeeerriinngg && PPrroodduuccttiioonn MMaannaaggeemmeenntt ((22001144))

Decision Calculus (DC),

Customer relationship budgets,

Management judgment,

Markov chain,

Transition matrix,

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Page 2: Application of Decision Calculus in Allocation of

‌‌حميدرضا‌کوشا‌و‌امير‌البدوي‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌هاي‌ماركوف‌متكي‌بر‌زنجيره‌هاي‌بازاريابي‌ص‌بودجهكارگيري‌رياضيات‌تصميم‌در‌تخصي‌به 715

1شماره‌‌-27د‌جل‌-‌1313خــردادنشريه‌بين‌المللي‌مهندسي‌صنايع‌و‌مديريت‌توليد،‌‌

‌‌هاي‌بازاريابي‌متكي‌بر‌‌كارگيري‌رياضيات‌تصميم‌در‌تخصيص‌بودجه‌به

‌هاي‌ماركوف‌زنجيره‌**امير‌البدوي‌وحميدرضا‌کوشا‌

‌‌چکيده:‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌يکلمات‌کليد

DC

‌1.‌مقدمه1

‌33/6/13تاريخ‌وصول:‌‌15/4/11تاريخ‌تصويب:‌

‌کوشا، حميدرضا[email protected]

‌مسئول‌ دکتر‌مقاله:نويسنده[email protected]

1. Decision Calculus

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2 Decision Maker

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1313 خــرداد، 25، جلــد 1شمــاره

111111--121222صفحـــه صفحـــه

hhttttpp::////IIJJIIEEPPMM..iiuusstt..aacc..iirr//

ISSN: 2008-4870

DC

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Page 3: Application of Decision Calculus in Allocation of

‌‌حميدرضا‌کوشا‌و‌امير‌البدوي‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌هاي‌ماركوف‌متكي‌بر‌زنجيره‌هاي‌بازاريابي‌ص‌بودجهكارگيري‌رياضيات‌تصميم‌در‌تخصي‌به 111

1شماره‌‌-27د‌جل‌-‌1313خــردادنشريه‌بين‌المللي‌مهندسي‌صنايع‌و‌مديريت‌توليد،‌‌

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1 Decision Analysis 2 Systems Dynamics 3 Relationship Marketing

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Page 4: Application of Decision Calculus in Allocation of

112 حميدرضا‌کوشا‌و‌امير‌البدوي‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌هاي‌ماركوف‌متكي‌بر‌زنجيره‌هاي‌بازاريابي‌كارگيري‌رياضيات‌تصميم‌در‌تخصيص‌بودجه‌به

‌‌1شماره‌‌-27جلد‌‌-‌1313خــردادنشريه‌بين‌المللي‌مهندسي‌صنايع‌و‌مديريت‌توليد،‌‌

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Page 5: Application of Decision Calculus in Allocation of

‌‌حميدرضا‌کوشا‌و‌امير‌البدوي‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌هاي‌ماركوف‌متكي‌بر‌زنجيره‌هاي‌بازاريابي‌ص‌بودجهكارگيري‌رياضيات‌تصميم‌در‌تخصي‌به 113

1شماره‌‌-27د‌جل‌-‌1313خــردادنشريه‌بين‌المللي‌مهندسي‌صنايع‌و‌مديريت‌توليد،‌‌

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Page 6: Application of Decision Calculus in Allocation of

114 حميدرضا‌کوشا‌و‌امير‌البدوي‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌هاي‌ماركوف‌متكي‌بر‌زنجيره‌هاي‌بازاريابي‌كارگيري‌رياضيات‌تصميم‌در‌تخصيص‌بودجه‌به

‌‌1شماره‌‌-27جلد‌‌-‌1313خــردادنشريه‌بين‌المللي‌مهندسي‌صنايع‌و‌مديريت‌توليد،‌‌

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Page 7: Application of Decision Calculus in Allocation of

‌‌حميدرضا‌کوشا‌و‌امير‌البدوي‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌هاي‌ماركوف‌متكي‌بر‌زنجيره‌هاي‌بازاريابي‌ص‌بودجهكارگيري‌رياضيات‌تصميم‌در‌تخصي‌به 117

1شماره‌‌-27د‌جل‌-‌1313خــردادنشريه‌بين‌المللي‌مهندسي‌صنايع‌و‌مديريت‌توليد،‌‌

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Page 8: Application of Decision Calculus in Allocation of

116 حميدرضا‌کوشا‌و‌امير‌البدوي‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌هاي‌ماركوف‌متكي‌بر‌زنجيره‌هاي‌بازاريابي‌كارگيري‌رياضيات‌تصميم‌در‌تخصيص‌بودجه‌به

‌‌1شماره‌‌-27جلد‌‌-‌1313خــردادنشريه‌بين‌المللي‌مهندسي‌صنايع‌و‌مديريت‌توليد،‌‌

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Page 9: Application of Decision Calculus in Allocation of

‌‌حميدرضا‌کوشا‌و‌امير‌البدوي‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌هاي‌ماركوف‌متكي‌بر‌زنجيره‌هاي‌بازاريابي‌ص‌بودجهكارگيري‌رياضيات‌تصميم‌در‌تخصي‌به 115

1شماره‌‌-27د‌جل‌-‌1313خــردادنشريه‌بين‌المللي‌مهندسي‌صنايع‌و‌مديريت‌توليد،‌‌

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Page 10: Application of Decision Calculus in Allocation of

111 حميدرضا‌کوشا‌و‌امير‌البدوي‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌هاي‌ماركوف‌متكي‌بر‌زنجيره‌هاي‌بازاريابي‌كارگيري‌رياضيات‌تصميم‌در‌تخصيص‌بودجه‌به

‌‌1شماره‌‌-27جلد‌‌-‌1313خــردادنشريه‌بين‌المللي‌مهندسي‌صنايع‌و‌مديريت‌توليد،‌‌

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‌‌حميدرضا‌کوشا‌و‌امير‌البدوي‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌هاي‌ماركوف‌متكي‌بر‌زنجيره‌هاي‌بازاريابي‌ص‌بودجهكارگيري‌رياضيات‌تصميم‌در‌تخصي‌به 111

1شماره‌‌-27د‌جل‌-‌1313خــردادنشريه‌بين‌المللي‌مهندسي‌صنايع‌و‌مديريت‌توليد،‌‌

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Page 12: Application of Decision Calculus in Allocation of

123 حميدرضا‌کوشا‌و‌امير‌البدوي‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌هاي‌ماركوف‌متكي‌بر‌زنجيره‌هاي‌بازاريابي‌كارگيري‌رياضيات‌تصميم‌در‌تخصيص‌بودجه‌به

‌‌1شماره‌‌-27جلد‌‌-‌1313خــردادنشريه‌بين‌المللي‌مهندسي‌صنايع‌و‌مديريت‌توليد،‌‌

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Page 13: Application of Decision Calculus in Allocation of

‌‌حميدرضا‌کوشا‌و‌امير‌البدوي‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌هاي‌ماركوف‌متكي‌بر‌زنجيره‌هاي‌بازاريابي‌ص‌بودجهكارگيري‌رياضيات‌تصميم‌در‌تخصي‌به 121

1شماره‌‌-27د‌جل‌-‌1313خــردادنشريه‌بين‌المللي‌مهندسي‌صنايع‌و‌مديريت‌توليد،‌‌

-

] [

] [

‌مراجعMcIntyre, S.H., An Experimental Study of the

Impact of Judgement-Based Marketing Models.

Management Science: Vol. 28, No. 1: 1982, pp. 17-

33.

[1]

http://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/well-

structured-problem.html (2010-11-16).

[2]

Little, J.D.C., Lodish, L.M., Commentary on

"Judgement Based Marketing Decision Models.

Journal of Marketing: Vol. 45, Fall: pp. 24-29.

[3]

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