Volume 20, Number 231 January 2020

 

“So World Rugby (IRB) know what they're doing? Two of the best 7s outfits ever play off for 9th and 10th place. Never really a fan of Sevens and I think they've just killed it.” – the inimitable Dan Retief in reaction to the Hamilton 7s

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2020 Rugby Season Looks Like a Cracker

We usually dedicate the last page of this newsletter to discussing the rugby action you can look forward to on the weekend but this week there is simply too much of it. As a result, we’re just putting selected tournament schedules on that page for this issue.

As we mentioned in our last newsletter, this weekend is effectively the beginning of the southern hemisphere rugby season with Super Rugby kicking off today and the FNB Varsity Cup beginning on Monday evening.

In this issue we have two Super Rugby stories: one looking at the chances of the four South African teams this year; and another previewing the first round match-ups.

And the second local PRO14 derby takes place in Bloemfontein on Saturday afternoon when Cheetahs entertain Southern Kings. After last week’s last gasp win in Port Elizabeth, the home side will be wanting to milk the home-ground advantage and extend their record against their opponents to 12 wins from 12.

 

The fourth round of the HSBC World Rugby Sevens Series takes place in Sydney this weekend but, based on the disastrous performance put in by the Blitzboks last weekend in Hamilton, we’re expecting the worst.

On top of all that, the Six Nations 2020 also kicks off this weekend along with the second tier European six nations competition, Rugby Europe. The first will see Wales host Italy and Ireland entertain Scotland on Saturday while France will welcome the whingers on Sunday.

In the Rugby Europe tournament, Spain visits Sochi to play Russia and Romania will travel to Tbilisi to face Georgia on Saturday. And then on Sunday Portugal will be hosting Belgium in Lisbon.

On top of that, the second tier English and French competitions (Championship and Pro D2) continue as well. And, across in Japan, the Top League will see a full house of eight matches this weekend – as a reminder, there are a number of South Africans making hay in that league again this year.

KEY TOPICS IN THIS NEWSLETTER

SA’s Super Rugby Prospects in 2020Super Rugby 2020: Round One PreviewPRO14: Close But No Cigar for Kings

 

Disaster in Hamilton for the BlitzboksRekindling the FNB Varsity Cup Flame?Can Lions Rediscover Super Rugby magic?

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SA’s Super Rugby Prospects in 2020

There’s an interesting analysis by Rob Houwing on News24 that assesses the strengths, weaknesses and prospects of South Africa’s Super Rugby franchises in the season that begins today at 8am with the Blues-Chiefs New Zealand derby. The author has highlighted what he calls five strengths and five potential snags for each team.

For instance, one of the strengths he highlights about Bulls prospects involves the coach: “The continuity that comes with Pote Human having a second successive season as head coach: that may not seem anything special to some of the more settled outfits competition-wise when it comes to masterminds, but he will be the only South African franchise coach NOT making his debut at this level in 2020, has been part of the broader Loftus rugby furniture for many years ... and did pretty well last year, when all is said and done.”

On the other side of the ledger he reckons Bulls may be under pressure due to the “quite extraordinary loss of lock personnel since 2019.”

He writes: “This year’s squad will be without the services of three highly-touted internationals in Lood de Jager, RG Snyman (that pair massive lineout and general athletic factors) and Jason Jenkins, plus Zimbabwean-born Eli Snyman who has flown the coop to Benetton. Plenty rests, you’d think, on the expected main combo of Kruger and Andries Ferreira staying healthy.”

About Lions he writes that they “remain fresh in many minds as gutsy bridesmaids of recent Super Rugby campaigns, considering their runners-up status in three years on the trot between 2016 and 2018 … but even that agreeably high status seems a bit beyond them nowadays.”

 

“There are few genuine superstars left on the books in Jo’burg, but the Lions do have a few young figures with the potential to suddenly ‘explode’ in Super Rugby this year: names like Hacjivah Dayimani, Vincent Tshituka, Tyrone Green and Mannie Rass spring to mind.”

Houwing views the schedule as both a potential strength and a snag: a lot of home games up front but the last nine matches will all be in South Africa, most of them at Emirates Airlines Park. But:

“Playing away from the Highveld (and often overseas) so much in the first few weeks could be hazardous to the Lions’ quest to be up among the contenders from relatively early on ... we have seen often enough before the detrimental effect on attendances in SA when a team looks dead in the water too quickly.”

He also worries about the depth of the squad, which has been a perennial problem in Joburg. However, a little bird whispered during the week that Super Rugby teams are going benefit from Saracens’ deserved relegation (mentioned last week) and, it appears, that Lions are at the front of the queue.

It’s still a rumour at this point but we’re told that Vincent Koch, Will Skelton and Brad Barritt are among the players being enticed into a move to Johannesburg. That could make things very interesting indeed.

For those interested in the two also ran franchises, he analysed the chances of Stormers and Sharks – but, we suspect that he was partaking in very large quantities of a recently legal “herb” when he wrote those two reports.

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Super Rugby 2020: Round One Preview

Without a shadow of doubt, the best place to get a comprehensive preview of every Super Rugby match before the kick-off every week is Rugby365.com. The only challenge is that they typically publish the previews the day before each set of matches, hence Friday’s matches are previewed on Thursday and you have to wait for today to see the previews of tomorrow’s matches.

Part one this week deals with the two Australasian derbies today: Blues vs Chiefs and Brumbies vs Reds. It also looks at the match we’re going to zoom into here: Sharks vs Bulls in the fish tank.

The prediction is one hell of a surprise to anybody who actually knows something about rugby: Sharks to win by five points. We doubt that, very much and fully expect to see the Bulls on the rampage down in Durban. But you judge the logic for yourself:

“The Bulls are undefeated in their last nine Super Rugby games against the Sharks; a 16-all draw in March 2016 their only blemish amid that run. The Sharks will begin their Super Rugby campaign at home for the first time since 2015; they’ve won five of their last seven fixtures when beginning the season on home soil...

“Cornal Hendricks (Bulls) has scored five tries in his last six Super Rugby games – including three tries in his last two games – after not having scored in any of his first eight appearances for the Bulls. Not much to choose between these two sides and based on pre-season form the favourites tag goes to the home side – by a very narrow margin.”

We’ll see who has egg on his face next week. Meanwhile, check out Rugby365.com today for previews of Lions’ and Stormers’ fixtures.

PRO14: Close But No Cigar for Kings

We noted last week that Southern Kings had not ever beaten Cheetahs in PRO14, despite having played four times before. What we didn’t know at the time was that the record stretches back to when both teams contested Super Rugby so, in all, it was ten played and ten lost by the PE franchise.

On Saturday they came out the blocks in a rush and were leading 13-0 after 30 minutes. Significantly, all the points were scored by flyhalf, Bader Pretorius, in his first start for the franchise: two penalty kicks, a try and a conversion kick.

But Cheetahs fought back and, even though Kings kept scoring, managed to close the gap to six points with only four minutes left on the clock. The home side hung on until the hooter sounded but then, in Kings’ red zone, Ruan Pienaar launched an up-and-under into space that was gathered by Rhyno Smith and dotted down.

The experienced scrum-half then stepped up to take the conversion and, in so doing, by snatched almost certain victory away from Kings. The result was heartbreak in Port Elizabeth and an extended record: eleven played against Cheetahs and eleven lost.

Kings have another chance this week in Bloemfontein and the team and coaching staff will take a lot of confidence from the 75 minute performance. But they will also fully understand that, the next time they get an opportunity, they need to hold it together for the full 80 AND the extra minutes after the hooter.

Cheetahs, on the other hand, will be looking to assert their dominance over the Kings by racking up their 12th win against the team from PE this Saturday.

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Disaster in Hamilton for the Blitzboks

First, an admission: as a highly partisan bunch in this newsroom, we didn’t watch a single match of this weekend’s disaster in Hamilton, New Zealand. The timing of the first game – just after 2am – prevented us from watching that one and the opponent in the second match had the same effect. [We never watch a match against the whingers live. It’s too aggravating – Ed.]

If Blitzboks win those contests, which they are expected to do every single time, we’ll go back and watch the replay but otherwise? Forget about it. The (21-19) loss to the whingers cost Blitzboks a semi-final place and effectively ended their challenge.

And then, to compound the error in unimaginable fashion, Blitzboks went on to be completely and utterly thrashed (36-14) by the lowly ranked Kenya. That was only the fifth defeat by our African compatriots in 32 meetings and left the Blitzboks with only one match to play: a ninth place play-off against Fiji, who almost had an equally disastrous weekend.

Unfortunately, Blitzboks lost that one too (12-5) and ended the tournament in an abysmal tenth place – out of only 16 teams, we remind you. It was utterly pathetic and the first time in a long time that this team has lost three matches in a row. A complete lack of performance that should really end Stedman Gans’ brief stint as captain. But will it?

This weekend, the teams cross the Tasman to convictland for the Sydney Sevens where the same crappy shortened format is planned. And Blitzboks are drawn in a pool with Argentina, France and Samoa. Let’s see what happens.

Rekindling the FNB Varsity Cup Flame?

Since it began several years ago, there has been a persistent drop-off in interest in the FNB Varsity Cup competition – both at the grounds and with viewership of the live television broadcasts. We’re not surprised because, it had got to the point last season that we were watching with the sound muted.

The reason is simple: the inanity of having some clown playing loud music of dubious quality virtually throughout the game grates the nerves of some of the more “senior” members of the newsroom. To be fair, though, it bothered us all – to the extent that last year we complained that the rugby seemed to be just a backdrop for the party in the stands.

Well, it’s back and, based on the expected changes, probably more obnoxious and mindless than ever. It seems that the sponsors and organisers took note of the declining attendances and opted to – in most rounds – kick-off all games at the same time: 19:00.

This will limit the live broadcasts to only one match per round – except for this week which will apparently see both the Tuks vs NWU (16:45) encounter and the Maties vs Shimlas (18:45) match broadcast on Monday.

Another change is with the second tier competition, FNB Varsity Shield, which will take place on a Friday night with all games also kicking off at 19:00. That competition begins on 14 February and, again, only one match can be broadcast live each week.

The idea, we believe is to get more people to the ground but that assumes that many spectators don't go only for the chance to be seen on television.

Can Lions Rediscover Super Rugby magic?

There’s an interesting take in SA Rugby magazine on the prospects of Joburg’s Lions franchise in Super Rugby 2020. Written by John Goliath, it is typically balanced but we think that he should have waited a week or so before publishing. There are whispers doing the rounds – but more about that later.

According to Goliath, Lions are in a rebuilding phase following the loss of a number of stalwarts. He writes:

“The Lions have essentially pressed the reset button after falling short of the Super Rugby playoffs last year. After making three consecutive finals, they suffered a massive player exodus and long-term injuries and ended the 2019 campaign with eight wins and eight defeats.

"In the last two years they have also lost the two coaches who helped turn the union’s fortunes around, with Johan Ackermann leaving to coach in England and Swys de Bruin quitting because of personal reasons.

Rookie coach Ivan van Rooyen has taken charge of the team for the new campaign, with star flyhalf Elton Jantjies has taken over the captaincy from Warren Whiteley, whose playing future seems uncertain.

“The Lions have acquired the experience of veteran tighthead prop Jannie du Plessis, while the hard-running flank Willem Alberts also returns to Ellis Park... However, they will be without one of their best players – hooker Malcolm Marx, who is currently enjoying a working holiday in Japan.

 

“But the Lions have some exciting rookies in their squad, especially in the backs. Tyrone Green was one of the standout players in last year’s Currie Cup, scoring some fantastic tries with his speed and skill from fullback. Up front, the powerful Carlu Sadie is back with the Joburg team, and will learn a lot from Dr Jannie.”

He then singles out several players for closer inspection but what he missed, probably because it is still a rumour, is that Lions look to be a prime beneficiary of the problems at English club Saracens.

As mentioned on page two, indications are that at least three very experienced players are heading to Johannesburg as a direct result of the looming relegation from England's premier rugby competition.

This could end up being a better year for Lions fans than anyone could reasonably have expected. We can’t wait.

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For your viewing pleasure

(Please view in the PDF)

 

 

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With what promises to be a fantastic year of rugby before us, we look forward to engaging you, our readers, as well as our contributors, many of whom you'll find on our Twitter timeline.

The Rugby Team at Leopard Newsletters.

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