Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
© OECD/IEA 2014 © OECD/IEA 2014
Oslo, 18 June 2014
Antoine Halff
Toril Bosoni
© OECD/IEA 2014
The oil market at a junction
• Balances loosen up on paper but must be seen in perspective
• The unconventional supply revolution enters a new stage - matures into an increasingly global phenomenon, not just a US success story
• Political and social change in the MENA raises OPEC supply risk, partly offsetting the impact of higher non-OPEC supply
• The economic recovery buoys demand, but the dynamics of demand growth undergo a structural shift - efficiency gains and fuel switching increasingly balance income and population impacts
• Asia is by far the largest magnet for global crude exports as North America grows into a net oil exporter
• The refining industry faces a new round of restructuring and a potential glut of light products
© OECD/IEA 2014
Demand
© OECD/IEA 2014
Oil demand nears 100 mb/d by 2019, but growth seen slowing down post-2015
+1.3% per annum, 2013-19, as macroeconomic momentum builds
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
mb/
d
Non-OECD Europe
Africa
FSU
Latin America
Middle East
Non-OECD Asia
OECD Asia Oceania
OECD Europe
OECD Americas
Global oil demand
© OECD/IEA 2014
Asia and the Middle East are forecast to dominate growth
Strong gains are also foreseen in Africa, the FSU and the Americas
2001-07 Average Global Oil Demand Growth 2004-2009/2009-2014/2014-2019 2007-13 thousand barrels per day
2013-19
2001-07 1 102 1.3%
2007-13 727 0.8%
2013-19 1 272 1.3% Source: IEA, Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2014
This map is w ithout prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.
Average global demand growth
(kb/d)
28
-327
-30 39 82100
71
-91
70
127262 307
58101
170
Americas
Africa
Middle East
Europe FSU
779
700
655
Asia/Pacific
© OECD/IEA 2014
Transport demand keeps growing despite increasing inter-fuel competition
Road transport accounting for 4 in every 10 barrels in 2014
54.6%
54.8%
55.0%
55.2%
55.4%
55.6%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
mb/
d
Shipping
Jet
Rail
Road diesel
Gasoline
Transport (rhs)
Relative share of transport use is global oil demand
© OECD/IEA 2014
Petrochemicals also underpin global LPG demand growth
Underpinned by relatively low-cost LPG (+ ethane) from the US
2001-07 Average Global Oil Demand Growth 2004-2009/2009-2014/2014-2019 2007-13 thousand barrels per day
2013-19
2001-07 195 2.4%
2007-13 225 2.4%
2013-19 291 2.7% Source: IEA, Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2014
This map is w ithout prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.
Average global LPG and Ethane
demand growth
(kb/d)
19
4
23 117
11
24
74
115
20
65 55
8 7
15
Americas
Africa
Middle East
Europe FSU
113
67 73
Asia/Pacific
© OECD/IEA 2014
Oil use extends decline in the power generation and residential sectors
Power sector oil-use falls everywhere bar Middle East
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Africa Non-OECD Asia China FSU/non-OECD
Europe
Latin America Middle East Americas Europe Asia Oceania
Renewable
energy
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Power generation mix by region, 2019
© OECD/IEA 2014
US gasoline demand is forecast to lead the OECD downtrend
Ongoing vehicle efficiency gains outweigh US population growth
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Litres of gasolin
e pe
r 10
0km Average vehicle
efficiency (lhs)
Gasoline
demand, growth
(rhs)
© OECD/IEA 2014
Demand’s dominant market share to be taken by non-OECD
Traditional OECD/non-OECD split will lose relevance
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
mb/
d
Middle East
Former Soviet Union
Non-OECD Europe
China
Asia
Non-OECD Americas
Africa
OECD Asia Oceania
OECD Europe
OECD Americas
OECD share
© OECD/IEA 2014
Supply
© OECD/IEA 2014
World oil supply capacity continues to expand, led by non-OPEC
Total oil supply capacity grows by 9 mb/d to 105 mb/d
Exceptionally strong non-OPEC growth, but slowing later in the forecast period
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
mb/d
OPEC Crude capacity OPEC NGLsGlobal Biofuels Non-OPEC (excl. Biofuels)World
Global oil supply capacity growth
© OECD/IEA 2014
World trends in capex
Global capital expenditure (including exploration capex) is increasingly targeted at non-conventional/difficult resources
Source: IEA analysis of Rystad Energy data.
*NB: That which excludes the other four non-conventional categories.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
billion
USD
Oil shale (kerogen) Oil sandsExtra heavy oil Tight oilDeepwater and ultra-DW* Conventional share
© OECD/IEA 2014
OPEC production capacity grows 2.1 mb/d
Reaches 37.1 mb/d by 2019 with Iraq to supply 60% of growth
Worsening political stability and security issues add downside risk in Iraq as well as Libya
Incremental OPEC crude production capacity 2013-19 (mb/d)
OPEC crude production capacity
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
mb/d
Current data May 2013 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4
1
Iraq
UAE
Angola
Venezuela
Ecuador
Saudi Arabia
Iran
Qatar
Libya
Nigeria
Algeria
Kuwait
© OECD/IEA 2014
Iraq faces formidable challenges in meeting ambitious production targets
Iraq production capacity to rise by 1.28 mb/d to 4.54 mb/d by 2019
Weak institutions have lead to delays in contract awards for infrastructure plans that anchor projects
Iraq crude production capacity growth
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
mb/d
Southern area Central and northern KRG
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
mb/d
Current data May 2013
Iraq crude oil production by region
© OECD/IEA 2014
Saudi Arabia maintains capacity around 12.5 mb/d
Gross capacity increase of 1.45 mb/d offset natural decline rates and allows mature field capacity reductions
Could notionally increase capacity beyond target if needed, with plans on the back burner to add a further 1.9 mb/d
Saudi Arabia crude oil production capacity
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
mb/d
Current data May 2013
© OECD/IEA 2014
Natural gas developments lift OPEC NGLs
OPEC NGLS rise by 810 kb/d to 7.12 mb/d
Iran provides the majority of increase, with further gains from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar
OPEC NGL production capacity
5.25
5.50
5.75
6.00
6.25
6.50
6.75
7.00
7.25
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
mb/d
Current data May 2013
© OECD/IEA 2014
North America continues to lead non-OPEC supply growth
Growth diversifies later in the period
Non-OPEC supply grows by 6.2 mb/d to 60.9 mb/d
Annual non-OPEC supply growth
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
mb/d
PG and
biofuelsOther Asia
China
Middle
EastAfrica
Latin
AmericaFSU
OECD
Pacif icOECD
EuropeOECD
AmericasTotal
© OECD/IEA 2014
US oil production driven by LTO and NGLs
By the end of the decade, the majority of US liquids output consists of LTO and NGLs, and total production exceeds 13 mb/d.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
mb/d
LTO Gulf of Mexico NGLs Other liquids Other crude & cond
US total oil production
© OECD/IEA 2014
Canadian oil production driven by oil sands
Bitumen and synthetics lead growth, while core Alberta light and medium production continues to decline.
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
kb/dmb/d
NGLs Alberta L&M Bitumen
Synthetics Other Growth (RHS)
Canada total oil production
© OECD/IEA 2014
Mexican reform to lift production
In a change from the last Report’s forecast, production forecast to increase in 2018
Some of this is long-planned Pemex projects, but the reform process is seen to affect production in 2019 and beyond
2.65
2.70
2.75
2.80
2.85
2.90
2.95
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
mb/d
Current data May 2013
Mexico total oil production
© OECD/IEA 2014
North Sea oil production flattens out
Growth set to resume in 2015 for the first time since 2000, as numerous new fields are brought online, though declines marginally again in 2018-2019
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Thou
sand
s
mb/d
UK Norway Other Ann. Growth (rhs)
North Sea total oil production
© OECD/IEA 2014
Brazil turnaround in sight
Despite challenges, including an indebted and overstretched Petrobras and high decline rates on mature offshore
Increases to average about 160 kb/d per year given major project start ups in the Santos basin
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
mb/d
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
kb/d
Campos Santos Other Brazil crude
Total oil production Production by basin
© OECD/IEA 2014
Russia crude oil steady but on a higher baseline
Russia is expected to maintain the highest crude oil production capacity in the world after Saudi Arabia.
9.2
9.4
9.6
9.8
10.0
10.2
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
mb/d
Current data May 2013
Russia crude oil production
© OECD/IEA 2014
NGLs gain share of global supply
NGL capacity grows by 1.6 mb/d to 10.7 mb/d in 2019;
NGLs, field condensate grow to 17% of global supply, from 16%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
mb/d
Pentanes
LPG
Ethane
World NGLs production
© OECD/IEA 2014
The world gas supply getting wetter
Driven by liquids-rich plays in North America, tempered by dry gas increases in Asia later in the period
1.40
1.45
1.50
1.55
1.60
1.65
1.70
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
barrels pe
r 1
000
cubic
metres
Barrels of NGLs and condensates per tcm of gas production
© OECD/IEA 2014
Biofuels growth shift away from OECD and Brazil
Policy support is waning in OECD countries, while their demand growth is already weak. Gasoline subsidies and a weak sugar market are impacting Brazil
Can be advantageous in countries with large product import bills and extant subsidies
World biofuel production
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
mb/d
US Brazil OECD EUROther 2013 MTOMR
1.2%
1.3%
1.4%
1.5%
1.6%
1.7%
1.8%
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
mbo
e/d
Biof. supply (adj. for energy cont.) As % of global oil demand
World biofuel production adj. for energy content as a % of global oil demand
© OECD/IEA 2014
Crude trade
© OECD/IEA 2014
Crude trade shifts east
Asia imports increase by 2.6 mb/d to 22.1 mb, or 65% of the international crude market
Crude Exports in 2019 and Growth in 2013-19 for Key Trade Routes1
(million barrels per day)
0.2 0.3
(0) 2.0 (0.2)
(-0.6) 4.1(-0.6)
0.1(-0.7)
3.1
1.2 (0.3)
1.0 (+0.1)
-0.6
2.2
1.8 (+0.8)
(-0.6)
1.1(+0.3)
Red number in brackets denotes growth in period 2013-19 1.21Excludes Intra-Regional Trade (+0.6)2 Includes Chile3 Includes Israel
5.2
(+0.3)
Other Asia
China
OECD Europe
1.6(-0.2)
1.3 (+0.6)
OECD Asia
Oceania3
0.5 (-0.0)
0.7(+0.4)
3.6 (-0.5)
OECDAmericas2
© OECD/IEA 2014
Middle East to remain key crude exporting region throughout the forecast
BUT its exports are forecast to decline to 16.1 mb/d (-900 kb/d) as regional producers refine more oil close to the wellhead Regional refinery capacity growth set to outstrip production growth
Decrease in crude shipments will be offset by an anticipated increase in product exports
Exports projected to be redirected eastwards to non-OECD Asia
-0.60 -0.40 -0.20 0.00 0.20 0.40
China
Oth Asia
Oth Eur
L. America
FSU
Africa
OECD Eur
OECD AO
OECD AM
mb/d
Middle East export growth 2013-19
© OECD/IEA 2014
FSU to continue to diversify exports eastwards
Shipments to Asia will hit 2.6 mb/d by 2019
Exports to Europe to fall by over 500 kb/d to 3.9 mb/d by 2019 Europe will remain the region’s largest customer, but its share of FSU
exports will fall to 54% in 2019 from 65% in 2013
-0.60 -0.30 0.00 0.30 0.60 0.90
China
Oth Asia
Oth Eur
LATAM
Middle East
OECD AO
Africa
OECD AM
OECD Eur
mb/d
FSU export growth 2013-19
© OECD/IEA 2014
Americas to become a net crude exporter by 2019
In response to soaring supplies from US, Canada and Brazil Which will outstrip regional refinery capacity growth
OECD Americas still to import 3.1 mb/d of mainly heavy sour crudes in 2019, 2.2 mb/d lower than in 2013
Middle East will account for 57% of regional imports But absolute volumes will drop by 600 kb/d
Middle East
45%
Latin America
30%
Africa
15%
FSU
5%
Others
5%
Middle East
57%Latin America
32%
Africa
3%
FSU
5%
Others
3%
OECD American crude imports, 2013 OECD American crude imports, 2019
© OECD/IEA 2014
China to consolidate its position as the world’s largest importing country
China to import 7.1 mb/d in 2019
China to continue diversifying its crude imports Imports from the FSU to reach 1.3 mb/d
Most of the growth will be long-haul trade
Africa
21%
FSU
13%
Latin America
10%
Middle East
52%
Others
4% Africa
17%
FSU
19%
Latin America
16%
Middle East
44%
Others
4%
Chinese crude imports, 2013 Chinese crude imports, 2019
© OECD/IEA 2014
Refining
© OECD/IEA 2014
Refinery capacity expansions continue…
95% of new capacity comes from the non-OECD, of which Asia accounts for half
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
mb/d
OECD North America OECD Europe OECD Pacific FSU China Other Asia Latin America Middle East Africa
CDU Expansions 2013-2019 by Region
Crude Distillation Expansions
© OECD/IEA 2014
…but plans are getting scaled back in the face of rising over-capacity
Projects slip in Latin America; China stalls new projects on looming surplus capacity, corruption scandals, pollution concerns
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
mb/d
OECD Americas Other OECD China Other Asia
Middle East Latin America Other non-OECD
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
kb/d
Current data May-13
Chinese CDU expansions vs . previous
Revisions to capacity expansion plans since 2013 MTOMR
© OECD/IEA 2014
Chinese product output to balance demand as projects scaled back
Apparent slowdown in gasoil demand growth sees product surpluses emerging. Indeed, China turned net gasoil exporter in 2013
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
1Q06 1Q09 1Q12 1Q15 1Q18
mb/d
Reported output Modelled output Demand
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
1Q06 1Q09 1Q12 1Q15 1Q18
mb/d
Reported output Modelled output Demand
Chinese total refinery output vs demand Chinese gasoil refinery output vs demand
© OECD/IEA 2014
Diverging trends in OECD refining: Europe & Asia versus North America
OECD Refinery Shutdowns
4.5 mb/d of OECD crude distillation capacity shut since 2008
Surging US LTO, condensate supplies lead to 750 kb/d expansion in US in 2015-2017
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
mb/d
OECD Americas OECD Europe OECD Asia Oceania
- 100
0
100
200
300
400
500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
kb/d
Crude distillation Upgrading Desulphurisation
North America Capacity Additions
© OECD/IEA 2014
Europe’s middle distillate deficit balloons to 1.6 mb/d by 2019
Increased supplies are coming from Middle East, North America and Russia
Product Supply Balances - Gasoil/Kerosene
Regional Balances in 2013 and 20191
Thousand barrels per day
897 1167
FSU
-1057 -1592
Europe
9841377
OECD Americas
-559 -548
Latin America
3581094
Middle East
1280801
Asia
-657-998
Africa
Refinery production and supplies from other sources vs. end-user demand. Regional total does not add to zero due to feedstock trade and differences in product classifications.
1. Positive number indicates net-export potential, negative number net-import requirement
© OECD/IEA 2014
North American gasoline glut emerging
North America faces excess light distillate supply of 1.3 mb/d in 2019, in search of export outlets
Product Supply Balances - Gasoline/Naphtha
Regional Balances in 2013 and 20191
Thousand barrels per day
469 528
FSU
718652
Europe
-205
1320
OECD Americas
154 138
Latin America
7021023
Middle East
-974 -1490
Asia
-143-332
Africa
Refinery Production and supplies from other sources vs. end-user demand. regional total do not add to zero due to feedstock trade and differences in product classifications.
Positive number indicates net-export potential, negative number indicate net-import requirement
© OECD/IEA 2014
Atlantic Basin product trade to increase
European middle distillate deficit balloons to 1.6 mb/d by 2019,but region struggle to rid itself of surplus gasoline supplies
US refinery industry renaissance, coinciding with sharp drop in demand, takes US to top global naphtha/gasoline supplier
-1 000
- 500
0
500
1 000
1 500
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018kb
/d
Naphtha/gasoline Jet/gasoil
Imports
-2 000
-1 500
-1 000
- 500
0
500
1 000
1 500
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
kb/d
Naphtha/gasoline Jet/gasoil
Imports
Exports
OECD America’s key product balances Europe’s key product balances
© OECD/IEA 2014
FSU fuel oil supplies cut back as refiners upgrade and export duties changed
Equalization of Russian fuel oil export duties with crude oil from Jan 2015, has led to refinery upgrading investments
New duties make simple refiners, with high fuel oil yield, uneconomical to run
Fuel oil demand stays unchanged through 2019,as non-OECD offset improvement in OECD
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
kb/d
Jet/gasoil Fuel oil
FSU key product exports Global fuel oil demand
0
2
4
6
8
10
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
mb/d
North America Europe OECD Asia FSU
Latin America Middle East Africa Non-OECD Asia
© OECD/IEA 2014
Fuel oil markets could tighten
Russian export duty reform, refinery investments curb output while global demand stays flat – unless marine bunker markets shift away from fuel oil ahead of new IMO sulphur standards
Product Supply Balances - Fuel Oil
Regional Balances in 2013 and 20191
Thousand barrels per day
1264636
FSU
-58 -166
Europe
175207
OECD Americas
140 113
Latin America
-192 -153
Middle East
-1129 -782
Asia
-67 -110
Africa
© OECD/IEA 2014
Middle East emerges as large product exporter
New refinery projects coming on stream in the Middle East exceed regional demand growth, resulting in increased product exports – in particular of middle distillates
- 500
0
500
1 000
1 500
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
kb/d
Naphtha/gasoline Jet/gasoil Fuel oil
Imports
Exports
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
1Q06 1Q09 1Q12 1Q15 1Q18
mb/d
Reported output Modelled output Demand
Middle Eastern product balances Middle East refinery output vs demand
© OECD/IEA 2014
Africa and Latin America remain importers
Difficulties in bringing new refinery projects on stream, leaves Africa and Latin America with large product import requirements
Heavy financial burden on governments subsidising fuels
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
1Q06 1Q09 1Q12 1Q15 1Q18
mb/d
Reported output Modelled output Demand
Africa refinery output vs total oil demand
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
1Q06 1Q09 1Q12 1Q15 1Q18
mb/d
Reported output Modelled output Demand
Latin American refinery output vs total oil demand
© OECD/IEA 2014
Refinery margins, utilisation rates remain under pressure amid surplus capacity
To bring utilisation rates up to 2006-2008 levels (when margins were healthy), another 4.8 mb/d of capacity would have to be cut, whether through plant closures, projects delays or cancellations
-7.5
-5.0
-2.5
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14
USD/
bbl
NW Europe Urals NW Europe BrentMED Urals Singapore Dubai
70.0%
75.0%
80.0%
85.0%
90.0%
1Q06 1Q09 1Q12 1Q15 1Q18
World OECD Non-OECD
Benchmark simple refinery margins Refinery utilisation rates
© OECD/IEA 2014
Summary
© OECD/IEA 2014
On paper, oil market balance eases, but risks and challenges abound
Nominal spare OPEC capacity to rise from 2013
But high risk remains
- 1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
mb/d
Implied spare capacity
Effective OPEC spare
capacity
World demand growth
World supply capacity
growth
Medium-term oil market balance
