Angel Broking Weekly 01022014

8/13/2019 Angel Broking Weekly 01022014

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2/6

February 1, 2014

For Private Circulation Only | Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946 1

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The bears kick-started the week on Monday with a substantial

downside gap on the back of extreme negative sentiments across

the globe. Selling pressure was so intense that the Nifty failed

to hold its important level of 61296129612961296129. Despite an unfavorable

outcome from the RBI Monetary policy, the Nifty somehow

managed to hold the 61006100610061006100 mark until Thursday's session. The

concluding session of the week traded within a narrow range

and eventually ended with negligible gains. On a weekly basis,

all the sectors closed well inside the negative territory with the

Realty, Banking and Metal counters being the major losers. The

Sensex and the Nifty shed 2.93% and 2.83%, respectively, over

the previous week's closing.

Pattern formation:

The '89-day EMA' and the '89-week EMA' are placed at

20634 / 613520634 / 613520634 / 613520634 / 613520634 / 6135 and 19395 / 581319395 / 581319395 / 581319395 / 581319395 / 5813 levels, respectively.

The '20-day EMA' and the '20-week EMA' are placed at

20898 / 620520898 / 620520898 / 620520898 / 620520898 / 6205 and 20582 / 612120582 / 612120582 / 612120582 / 612120582 / 6121 levels, respectively.

The 'Shooting Star' pattern on the weekly chart has now

been confirmed.

The Weekly 'RSI-Smoothened' and the 'ADX (9)' indicator

are now signaling a negative crossover.

Future outlook

A sudden shift in traders' sentiments was influenced by domestic

as well as global developments. In our previous weekly report,

we had clearly mentioned that the bulls were struggling at higher

levels and that the bears had started gaining strength. This was

reflected in Monday's session as the Nifty opened substantially

lower and confirmed the 'Shooting Star' Japanese candlestick

pattern formed during the previous week. In-line with our

expectations, the Nifty slid towards the mentioned targets of

6129 - 60506129 - 60506129 - 60506129 - 60506129 - 6050. In the process, our market has now finally

managed to come out of the congestion zone. A closing below

Source: Falcon

Exhibit 1: Nifty weekly chart

1

Source: Falcon

Exhibit 2: Nifty Daily chart

Market out of the congestion zone

Sensex (20498) / Nifty (6090)

the weekly '20 EMA' coupled with the negative placement of

the weekly 'RSI-Smoothened' and the 'ADX (9)' indicator suggests

higher possibilities of interemediate-term weakness. Considering

these evidences, we expect the Nifty to initially test the crucial

support level of 59705970597059705970 and may even slide towards 5850 - 58205850 - 58205850 - 58205850 - 58205850 - 5820

levels, if it sustains below 59705970597059705970 over the next 3 weeks. On the

other hand, Thursday's 'Bullish Hammer' pattern does not ruleout the possibilities of a near-term bounce towards 6150 - 61806150 - 61806150 - 61806150 - 61806150 - 6180

levels. We expect the Banking, Oil & Gas and Metal counters to

remain under pressure; whereas the IT and Healthcare sectors

may remain to be a safe bet for traders.


3/6

February 1, 2014

For Private Circulation Only | Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP00000154 6 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946 2

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Technical Research Team

Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty 50 Stocks

SCRIPS21,136 20,817 20,580 20,262 20,025

6,258 6,166 6,097 6,004 5,935

11,053 10,603 10,352 9,902 9,651

1,022 1,002 986 967 951

165 161 158 154 151

496 487 475 466 455

1,211 1,160 1,132 1,081 1,054

2,010 1,965 1,924 1,879 1,838

618 575 550 506 482

322 316 308 301 293

185 179 170 164 155

379 366 349 336 319

329 325 322 319 316427 420 414 407 400

260 253 249 242 238

156 145 139 129 123

2,713 2,667 2,640 2,593 2,567

364 357 349 342 333

2,659 2,624 2,590 2,555 2,521

1,474 1,454 1,425 1,406 1,377

863 846 828 811 793

679 655 641 618 604

2,138 2,068 2,024 1,954 1,910

118 113 110 105 103

600 585 570 555 540

1,068 1,021 992 946 917

100 96 93 89 87

427 403 386 362 345

3,818 3,761 3,707 3,651 3,597

334 329 324 319 313

267 258 253 245 239

49 44 41 37 34

697 673 659 636 622

1,019 1,000 987 967 954

944 907 881 844 819

905 886 868 850 832

1,858 1,747 1,644 1,533 1,429

148 145 142 139 137

135 131 129 126 123

285 279 275 268 265

593 555 535 498 478

100 98 97 94 93

350 337 321 307 292

875 850 836 811 797

405 385 371 351 337

1,670 1,593 1,552 1,475 1,434

212 200 191 179 170

630 612 596 578 562

380 371 358 349 336

77 74 73 71 69

381 364 352 335 324

2,292 2,255 2,222 2,185 2,153

1,759 1,723 1,692 1,656 1,625

R2R2R2R2R2 R1R1R1R1R1 PIVPIVPIVPIVPIVOOOOOTTTTT S1S1S1S1S1 S2S2S2S2S2SENSEX

NIFTY

BANKNIFTY

ACC

AMBUJACEM

ASIANPAINT

AXISBANK

BAJAJ-AUTO

BANKBARODA

BHARTIARTL

BHEL

BPCL

CAIRNCIPLA

COALINDIA

DLF

DRREDDY

GAIL

GRASIM

HCLTECH

HDFC

HDFCBANK

HEROMOTOCO

HINDALCO

HINDUNILVR

ICICIBANK

IDFC

INDUSINDBK

INFY

ITC

JINDALSTEL

JPASSOCIAT

KOTAKBANK

LT

LUPIN

M&M

MARUTI

NMDC

NTPC

ONGC

PNB

POWERGRID

RANBAXY

RELIANCE

RELINFRA

SBIN

SESAGOA

SUNPHARMA

TATAMOTORS

TATAPOWER

TATASTEEL

TCS

ULTRACEMCO


4/6

February 1, 2014

For Private Circulation Only | Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946 3

Derivatives Review |Derivatives Review |Derivatives Review |Derivatives Review |Derivatives Review |

Wait and watch, don't short aggressively

Nifty spot closed at 6089.506089.506089.506089.506089.50 this week, against a close of 6261.656261.656261.656261.656261.65 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased from0.990.990.990.990.99 to 1.071.071.071.071.07

levels and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive 5.19%5.19%5.19%5.19%5.19%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures decreased by 18.59%18.59%18.59%18.59%18.59%.

Put-Call Ratio Analysis Implied Volatility Analysis

PCR-OI has increased from 0.99 to 1.07 levels. This ratio has

mainly increased due to significant amount of buildup in put

options in 6000 & 5700 strike, good amount of buildup was

also added by 5800, 5900 & 6100 strikes. In call option

reasonable amount of buildup was seen in 6000 & 6300 strikes

last week. Highest buildup is seen in 6300 call & 6000 put

options.

Implied Volatility (IV) for NIFTY has increased from 13.44%.to

15.37%. Historical volatility (HV) is at 17.39% and that for

BANKNIFTY is trading at 31.88%. Liquid counters having very

high HV are RANBAXY, HDIL, BANKINDIA, JPASSOCIAT and

JPPOWER. Stocks where HV are on lower side are DRREDDY,

HINDUNILVR, CAIRN, GRASIM and COLPAL.

Nifty futures closed at the premium of 22.50 against the

premium of 39.15 points to its spot. Next month future is trading

with premium of 58.85 points. Liquid counters where CoC is

high are JPPOWER, ADANIPOWER, FEDERALBNK, JISLJALEQS

and KTKBANK. Stocks with negative CoC are BHEL, PFC, SAIL,

RECLTD and NMDC.

Total open interest of market has decreased from

`1,44,759/- cr. to`1,08,019/- cr. Stock futures open interest

has decreased from`36,608/- cr. to`32,250/- cr. Some of the

large caps which added open interest are TATAMOTORS,

HEROMOTOCO, RELIANCE and BANKBARODA. Open interest

was shed in large cap names like COALINDIA, MARUTI,

RANBAXY, JPASSOCIAT and BHEL.

Open Interest Analysis Cost-of-Carry Analysis

Scrip :Scrip :Scrip :Scrip :Scrip : BANKNIFTY CMP :CMP :CMP :CMP :CMP :10276.65 LLLLLot Size : 25ot Size : 25ot Size : 25ot Size : 25ot Size : 25 Exercise Date (F & O) : Exercise Date (F & O) : Exercise Date (F & O) : Exercise Date (F & O) : Exercise Date (F & O) :

26th. Feb 2014

Expected PayoffView: Mildly Bearish

8500

8900

9300

9700

10100

10500

UBEP -UBEP -UBEP -UBEP -UBEP - `9945/-

LBEP -LBEP -LBEP -LBEP -LBEP -`

9055/-

Max. Risk:Max. Risk:Max. Risk:Max. Risk:Max. Risk: Unlimited Max. PMax. PMax. PMax. PMax. Profit:rofit:rofit:rofit:rofit:`11,125/-

If BANKNIFTY continues to move below LBEP. If BANKNIFTY closes at 9500 on expiry.

NONONONONOTETETETETE::::: Profit can be booked before expiry if BANKNIFTY moves in favorable directions and time value decays.

Strategy: Ratio Put Spread

Buy/SellBuy/SellBuy/SellBuy/SellBuy/Sell QtyQtyQtyQtyQty ScripScripScripScripScrip StrikeStrikeStrikeStrikeStrike SeriesSeriesSeriesSeriesSeries OptionOptionOptionOptionOption Buy/Sell RateBuy/Sell RateBuy/Sell RateBuy/Sell RateBuy/Sell Rate

PPPPPricericericericerice TTTTTypeypeypeypeype (((((`````)))))

BUY 25 BANKNIFTY 10000 JAN PE 175.00

SELL 50 BANKNIFTY 9500 JAN PE 60.00

Closing PClosing PClosing PClosing PClosing Pricericericericerice ExpectedExpectedExpectedExpectedExpected ( ( ( ( (`````))))) PPPPProfit/Lrofit/Lrofit/Lrofit/Lrofit/Lossossossossoss

(`555.00)

(`155.00)

`245.00

`245.00

(`55.00)

(`55.00)

Derivative Strategy


5/6

Weekly

Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)

Ratings (Returns) :

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6/6

Weekly

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Research Team

Fundamental:

Sarabjit Kour Nangra VP-Research, Pharmaceutical [email protected]

Vaibhav Agrawal VP-Research, Banking [email protected]

Bhavesh Chauhan Sr. Analyst (Metals & Mining) [email protected]

Viral Shah Sr. Analyst (Infrastructure) [email protected]

V Srinivasan Analyst (Cement, FMCG) [email protected]

Yaresh Kothari Analyst (Automobile) [email protected]

Ankita Somani Analyst (IT, Telecom) [email protected]

Sourabh Taparia Analyst (Banking) [email protected]

Bhupali Gursale Economist [email protected]

Vinay Rachh Research Associate [email protected]

Amit Patil Research Associate [email protected]

Twinkle Gosar Research Associate [email protected]

Tejashwini Kumari Research Associate [email protected]

Akshay Narang Research Associate [email protected]

Harshal Patkar Research Associate [email protected]

Nishant Sharma Research Associate [email protected]

Technicals:

Shardul Kulkarni Sr. Technical Analyst [email protected]

Sameet Chavan Technical Analyst [email protected]

Derivatives:

Siddarth Bhamre Head - Derivatives [email protected]

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Mayuresh Joshi VP - Institutional Sales [email protected]

Meenakshi Chavan Dealer [email protected]

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Documents

Angel Broking Weekly 01022014