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Analyst Meeting 2Q13 21 August 2013 The future begins now creating shared value

Analyst Meeting 2Q13 - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/PRESN/20130822-IRPC...2013/08/22  · Analyst Meeting 2Q13 21 August 2013 The future begins now creating shared value

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Page 1: Analyst Meeting 2Q13 - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/PRESN/20130822-IRPC...2013/08/22  · Analyst Meeting 2Q13 21 August 2013 The future begins now creating shared value

Analyst Meeting 2Q13

21 August 2013

The future begins now creating shared value

Page 2: Analyst Meeting 2Q13 - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/PRESN/20130822-IRPC...2013/08/22  · Analyst Meeting 2Q13 21 August 2013 The future begins now creating shared value

2

Disclaimer

This presentation material has been prepared solely for informational purposes only.

IRPC is furnishing it solely for use by prospective investors / analysts in the proposed

event. IRPC makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness

of such information. By accepting this material each recipient agrees that IRPC shall not

have any liability for any representations (express or implied) contained in, or for any

omissions from this presentation.

The information contained herein does not purport to be all-inclusive or to contain all of

the information that may be material to the recipient’s decision. Each recipient of the

information and data contained herein should perform its own independent investigation

and analysis of the transaction and the creditworthiness of IRPC . Reference in this Disclaimer to this shall include references to the Appendices (if any) hereto.

Page 3: Analyst Meeting 2Q13 - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/PRESN/20130822-IRPC...2013/08/22  · Analyst Meeting 2Q13 21 August 2013 The future begins now creating shared value

I. 2Q13 Highlights

II. Operation & Financial Performance

III. Project Update

IV. Industry Outlook

V. Appendix

3

Agenda

Page 4: Analyst Meeting 2Q13 - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/PRESN/20130822-IRPC...2013/08/22  · Analyst Meeting 2Q13 21 August 2013 The future begins now creating shared value

2Q13 Overview

4

Overview of Business

111 107 107

116

106 106 108 108

101

80 82

56

86

80 83

78

85 88

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

AVG Dubai (LHS)

Crude utilization rate (RHS)

$/bbl %

Dubai Price & Crude Utilization Rate

Net Sales & Net Profit Unit: MB

Net Sales Net Profit

(3,455) 153 (1,159) (2,481) (1,006)

1H12* 1H13

1. The oil price was under pressure because economic growth in US and China was

disappointing and the Euro-zone economic condition deteriorated. However, the

downward price pressure was alleviated by increased geopolitical tensions in the

Middle East.

2. Average Dubai price dropped from $108.2/bbl in 1Q13 to $100.8/bbl in 2Q13.

3. The crude utilization in 2Q13 rose to 189 KBD (88%) from 183 KBD (85%) in

1Q13. In 1H13, the crude utilization was 186 KBD (86%), increasing from 178

KBD (83%) in 1H12.

4. In 2Q13, there were two shutdowns: (i) total wide Rayong power outage, resulting

in expenses and opportunity losses of 356 MB and (ii) a scheduled shutdown in

the EBSM unit incurring opportunity losses of 132 MB.

5. Net sales were 67,150 MB in 2Q13, lower than net sales of 68,964 MB in 1Q13.

In 1H13, net sales declined to 136,114 MB from 146,261 MB in 1H12 due to a

decrease of 11% in the product prices despite an increase of 4% in sales

volume.

6. Market GIM in 2Q13 was $8.02/bbl rising from $7.40/bbl in 1Q13 because of

higher product spreads. Accounting GIM in 2Q13 was at $7.06/bbl, slightly lower

than $7.07/bbl reported in 1Q13. Market GIM in 1H13 was $7.71/bbl rising from

$5.09/bbl in 1H12. Accounting GIM in 1H13 was also higher at $7.06/bbl,

compared to $4.09/bbl in 1H12.

146,261

136,114

Net Sales & Net Profit Unit: MB

Net Sales Net Profit

* Restated

(2,481) (1,006)

1H12* 1H13

72,346 68,964 67,150

146,261 136,114

2Q13 2Q12* 1Q13

* Restated from effective TAS 12 Income Taxes

Page 5: Analyst Meeting 2Q13 - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/PRESN/20130822-IRPC...2013/08/22  · Analyst Meeting 2Q13 21 August 2013 The future begins now creating shared value

2Q13 Highlights

Projects

1. 51% overall progress of Phoenix Projects

2. EBSM Upgrading for ABS specialties: expected EBIT of $12

million/year

- ABS 60 KTA: MC on 10 May 13

- EBSM upgrading 60 KTA: MC on 23 July 13

3. Lube Blending Business Improvement: 93% progress; COD

expected in September 13; expected EBIT of $3 million/year

4. Ethylene Specialty Development: 62% progress; COD expected in

1Q14; expected EBIT of $5 million/year

5. UHV: 45% progress ; Construction phase has started; MC expected

in 1Q15

ABS6

SAN3

Completed

Completed

New Subsidiary

IRPC Clean Power Company Limited

High Value Product HDPE

Registered Capital: 50 MB

Objective: To commercially provide power and steam, and

other industrial utilities

Shareholding: IRPC holds 99.99% 5

As of July 13

Page 6: Analyst Meeting 2Q13 - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/PRESN/20130822-IRPC...2013/08/22  · Analyst Meeting 2Q13 21 August 2013 The future begins now creating shared value

I. 2Q13 Highlights

II. Operation & Financial Performance

III. Project Update

IV. Industry Outlook

V. Appendix

Agenda

6

Page 7: Analyst Meeting 2Q13 - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/PRESN/20130822-IRPC...2013/08/22  · Analyst Meeting 2Q13 21 August 2013 The future begins now creating shared value

-3.3

-8.5 -6.0

-3.9 -1.7

-7.1 -5.9 -4.4

14.3 14.0 15.9

13.4

18.4 14.6 14.1

16.5 18.1 17.6

21.2 19.4 19.6

16.8 17.8 18.2

-0.5 -1.3 -2.4

-9.0 -7.3 -3.6

-0.9

-5.5

116.1 106.4 106.3 107.5 108.2

100.8 111.2

104.5

-10

0

10

20

30

40

-40

0

40

80

120

160

1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 1H12 1H13

NP-DB (RHS) ULG95-DB (RHS) GO-DB (RHS) FO-DB (RHS) Dubai (LHS)

Price $/bbl

Spread $/bbl

Softening Petroleum Prices

Source: Platts, IRPC Analysis Team

• Despite political tension in the Middle East (e.g. Syria), the average oil price declined in 2Q13 predominantly due to a

downward revision in the pace of global economic recovery.

• ULG spread decreased because of the resumption of supply from refineries’ unplanned outage in Asia.

• Gas oil spread softened due to an off peak seasonality effect and weaker demand from Vietnam, Indonesia and

India.

• HSFO spread continued to strengthen because of ongoing demand for fuel oil in Korean power generation industry

combined with limited supply from Saudi Arabia.

** Starting Jan-13 onward Gas oil 0.05%s is used instead of Gas oil 0.5%s,. For comparison purpose, historical data is re-stated based on Gas oil 0.05%

**

7

Page 8: Analyst Meeting 2Q13 - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/PRESN/20130822-IRPC...2013/08/22  · Analyst Meeting 2Q13 21 August 2013 The future begins now creating shared value

697 767

647

556 483 571

732

527 500

621 497 460

421 494

560

458

(99) (32) (40)

15

(19) (7) (65)

(13)

734 667 660

625 640 617 701

629

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 1H12 1H13

150BS-FO 500SN-FO Asphalt-FO FO$/Ton

Improving Lube Base Oil Spreads

Source: Platts, ICIS, IRPC Analysis Team

• Improvement in the lube base oil spread was primarily

attributed to turnarounds in North East Asia despite

ongoing sluggish marine logistic demand.

• Asphalt spread improved due to seasonal regional

demand combined with a substantial drop in the price of

feedstocks. 1Q12 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q13 2Q 1H12 1H13-0.3

0.2 1.2 0.7 1.0 2.0

-0.1 1.5 1.4

2.4 2.1

2.0 1.4

1.5

1.9

1.4 1.1

2.6 3.2

2.7 2.4

3.5

1.8

3.0

Lube Base RefinedMarket GRM

$/bbl

8

Page 9: Analyst Meeting 2Q13 - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/PRESN/20130822-IRPC...2013/08/22  · Analyst Meeting 2Q13 21 August 2013 The future begins now creating shared value

230 291 285

341 434 405

261

420

145 203 143

107

87 179

174

133 374

494 428

449

521

585

434

553

261

391 342 303 345

439 326

392

147

161 187

216 236

175

154

206 408

551 529 519

581 614

480

597

1,021

893 915 944 961

858

957 910

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 1H12 1H13

PP-Propylene Propylene-NP HDPE-ETH ETH-NP Naphtha$/Ton

Continuation of Olefin Spread Improvement

Source: Platts, ICIS, IRPC Analysis Team

• Despite a substantial drop in the naphtha price, olefin prices slightly declined because the demand

for olefins were relatively stable. As result, there was an improvement in the olefin spread.

9

Page 10: Analyst Meeting 2Q13 - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/PRESN/20130822-IRPC...2013/08/22  · Analyst Meeting 2Q13 21 August 2013 The future begins now creating shared value

Modest Drop in Aromatic Spreads

Source: Platts, ICIS, IRPC Analysis Team

178 219 217

335 305 260

198

283

161

222 269

420 426 428

192

427

316 261

326 385 366 334

289 350

1,021

893 915 944 961

858

957 910

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 1H12 1H13

Tol-NP BZ-NP MX-NP Naphtha

$/Ton

• Aromatic spreads came down from the level in the previous quarter, which was relatively high.

• Spreads for toluene and mixed-xylene dropped because of a decline in their demand for ULG

blending.

10

Page 11: Analyst Meeting 2Q13 - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/PRESN/20130822-IRPC...2013/08/22  · Analyst Meeting 2Q13 21 August 2013 The future begins now creating shared value

1Q12 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q13 2Q 1H12 1H13

11 122 88 124 133 168

66 149 51

115 108 122 151 141

83

146 31

138 110

138 158 176

85

166

Aromatic&Styrenics Olefins

428 516 541

692 773

851

472

812

115

121 122

79

186 164

118

175

543

636 664

771

922 976

590

949 1,058 1,081

1,039 995

1,051 1,057 1,069 1,054 1,021

893 915 944 961

858

957

910

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 1H12 1H13

ABS-NP PS-SM SM-NP Naphtha$/Ton

Upturn in Styrenic Spreads

Source: Platts, ICIS, IRPC Analysis Team

PTF $/Ton • Relatively high PS price was sustained due to cost-push

effect from SM price.

• The price of ABS was pressured by weak downstream

demand which was in turn due to stubborn growth in the

global economy.

11

Page 12: Analyst Meeting 2Q13 - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/PRESN/20130822-IRPC...2013/08/22  · Analyst Meeting 2Q13 21 August 2013 The future begins now creating shared value

Increase Domestic Crude Intake

Crude Intake

80% 83% 78% 85% 88% 83% 86%

93% 97% 92% 88% 83% 91% 86%

2Q12 3Q 4Q 1Q13 2Q 1H12 1H13

Refinery Lube

72% 66% 70% 66% 63% 73%

65%

28% 34% 30% 33% 33% 27%

32%

1% 4% 3% 171 178 168 189 186

2Q12 3Q 4Q 1Q13 2Q 1H12 1H13

Domestic Crude

Sweet Crude

Sour Crude

183 178

Petroleum Production Petrochemical Production

88% 97% 102% 107%

100% 95% 104%

63% 85% 89% 85% 89% 74%

88% 89% 88% 93% 92%

78% 94%

85%

2Q12 3Q 4Q 1Q13 2Q 1H12 1H13

Olefin Aromatic Styrenic

6% 8% 8% 5% 5% 4% 5%

6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5%

18% 15% 14% 14% 13% 16% 13%

41% 41% 41% 41% 41% 42% 41%

7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8%

19% 19% 20% 21% 22% 21% 21%

3% 4% 4% 5% 6% 5% 6%

2Q12 3Q 4Q 1Q13 2Q 1H12 1H13

LPG

Naphtha

Gasoline

Diesel

Fuel Oil

Lube Base

Asphalt22% 22% 21% 19% 21% 22% 20%

42% 42% 39% 34%

40% 40% 37%

18% 17% 20% 25%

18% 18% 22%

18% 20% 20% 22% 20% 19% 21%

2Q12 3Q 4Q 1Q13 2Q 1H12 1H13

Aromatic

Olefin

Polyolefin

Polystyrenic

KTon

Unit : KBD

Pe

tro

ch

em

ica

l P

etr

ole

um

Mbbl 273 309 306 324 294 594 619 15.6 16.4 15.5 16.4 17.2 32.4 33.6

12

186

Page 13: Analyst Meeting 2Q13 - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/PRESN/20130822-IRPC...2013/08/22  · Analyst Meeting 2Q13 21 August 2013 The future begins now creating shared value

57% 59% 54% 65%

58% 59% 61%

43% 41% 46% 35%

42% 41% 39%

15.1 13.7 14.2 15.3 29.4 29.5

2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q13 2Q 1H12 1H13

Sales Qty

Export

Domestic

14.5

65% 64% 64% 60% 63% 64% 62%

35% 36% 36% 40% 37% 36% 38%

298 337 323 345 311 623 656

2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q13 2Q 1H12 1H13

Sales Qty

Export

Domestic

88% 87% 86% 84% 86% 87% 85%

12% 13% 14% 16% 14% 13% 15%

17.0 16.8 15.8 17.1 17.7 32.5 34.8

2Q12 3Q 4Q 1Q13 2Q 1H12 1H13

Total Mbbl

Petrochem

Petroleum

Focus on Domestic Market & High Value Products

Petr

ole

um

68% 68% 67% 65% 65% 68% 65%

32% 32% 33% 35% 35% 32% 35%

2Q12 3Q 4Q 1Q13 2Q 1H12 1H13

High Value

Commodity

Polymer Marketing Mix Towards High Value Product

Petr

och

em

ical

Singapore, 60%

Malaysia, 18%

Laos, 7%

Myanmar, 6%

China, 6%

Europe, 2%

Asia, 2% America,

1%

China, 46%

Singapore, 9%

Japan, 4%

Asia, 11%

Turkey, 8%

Europe,10% (German3% France3%, Others4%)

Australia, 4%

Middle East, 2%

America, 2%

Africa, 3%

Y2011

Unit: Mbbl

Unit: KTon

China, 39%

Singapore, 22%

Japan, 6%

Asia, 12%

Turkey, 4%

Europe,10% Middle

East, 4%

Others, 7%

Petroleum Petrochemical

Petroleum Petrochemical 9M12

Unit: Mbbl

1H13: Lower domestic sales proportion QoQ due to PTTGC‟s

shutdown but high proportion of domestic expected to recover in

2H13

13

Page 14: Analyst Meeting 2Q13 - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/PRESN/20130822-IRPC...2013/08/22  · Analyst Meeting 2Q13 21 August 2013 The future begins now creating shared value

41% 44% 46% 46% 50%

44% 44% 40% 41% 37%

15% 13% 14% 13%

13% 7.1 7.1 6.9

7.3 7.8

2Q12 3Q 4Q 1Q13 2Q

36% 40% 40% 39% 44%

39% 39% 36% 37% 33%

25% 21% 24% 24% 24%

27,375 28,487 27,764 28,497 29,476

2Q12 3Q 4Q 1Q13 2Q

QoQ 7%

YoY 10%

QoQ 3%

YoY 8%

43

37 38 35

40

2Q12 3Q 4Q 1Q13 2Q

Inventory Day (Days)

98 113 111 109

102

115 115 117 120

105

223 221 227

242

220

126 127 130 131 118

2Q12 3Q 4Q 1Q13 2Q

Unit Price ($/bbl)

Maintain Efficient Inventory Turnover in 2Q13

Value (MB)

Volume (Mbbl)

Petrochem

Petroleum

Crude

Petrochem

Petroleum

Crude

Total

*End-month unit price

*

14

Page 15: Analyst Meeting 2Q13 - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/PRESN/20130822-IRPC...2013/08/22  · Analyst Meeting 2Q13 21 August 2013 The future begins now creating shared value

Improving Market GIM in 2Q13

2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13

2.97 3.08 3.12 3.88

3.09 3.09 2.77 2.93

1.03 0.88 0.97 1.02

7.09 7.05 6.86 7.83

30 Jun 12 30 Sep 12 31-Dec-12 31-Mar-13 30-Jun-13

98.3 112.7 111.2 101.8

115.0 114.8 116.7 105.0

223.9 220.7 226.7 220.6

126.1 127.4 129.8 118.4

7.2 6.5 6.7 7.4 8.0 5.1

7.7

(7.0)

3.3 0.3

(0.3) (1.0) (1.0) (0.6)

0.2 9.8

7.0 7.1 7.1

4.1

7.1

2Q12 3Q 4Q 1Q13 2Q 1H12 1H13

Market GIM Stock G/(L) net LCM + Hedging

Accounting GIM

8.5 9.8

7.0

11.0

6.3

0

5

10

15

A/C GIM

2.6 3.2 2.7 2.4 3.5 1.8 3.0

2.9 2.4 3.3 4.0

3.8

1.8

3.8 1.8 0.8 0.6 1.0

0.8

1.5

0.9 7.2

6.5 6.7 7.4 8.0

5.1

7.7

80% 83% 78% 85% 88% 83% 86%

2Q12 3Q 4Q 1Q13 2Q 1H12 1H13

Power & Utility Petrochemical Petroleum

Market GIM

Utilization rate

Unit: $/bbl

Unit: $/bbl • 2Q13 VS 1Q13

- An increase in the

Market GRM was

primarily driven by

better spreads of

petroleum products.

- However,

petrochemical

product spreads

were dragged down

by aromatic spread.

• Despite higher Market

GIM in 2Q13,

Accounting GIM in

2Q13 was relatively the

same as the one in

1Q13 due to higher

stock losses.

15

Page 16: Analyst Meeting 2Q13 - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/PRESN/20130822-IRPC...2013/08/22  · Analyst Meeting 2Q13 21 August 2013 The future begins now creating shared value

Consolidated Financial Performance

MB

2Q13 2Q12* 1Q13YoY

%

QoQ

%1H13 1H12*

Net Sales 67,150 72,346 68,964 -7% -3% 136,114 146,261

Market GIM 4,141 3,545 3,642 17% 14% 7,783 5,156

Net Stock Gain/(Loss) (496) (3,438) (160) 86% -210% (656) (1,017)

Accounting GIM 3,645 107 3,482 3,307% 5% 7,127 4,139

Other Income 298 551 254 -46% 17% 552 819

OPEX (2,452) (2,201) (2,176) 11% 13% (4,628) (4,257)

EBITDA 1,180 (1,798) 1,265 166% -7% 2,445 175

Net Financing Cost (434) (426) (456) 2% -5% (890) (810)

Gain/(Loss) from Fx (760) (312) 560 -144% -236% (200) (87)

Net Profit (1,159) (3,454) 153 66% -858% (1,006) (2,481)

Crude Run: Mbbl 17.2 15.6 16.4 10% 5% 33.6 32.4

Sales Volume: Mbbl 17.7 17.0 17.0 4% 4% 34.8 33.5

Avg. Fx 30.0 31.4 29.9 -4% 0.3% 30.0 31.3

Change MB

* Restated from effective TAS 12 Income Taxes

16

Page 17: Analyst Meeting 2Q13 - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/PRESN/20130822-IRPC...2013/08/22  · Analyst Meeting 2Q13 21 August 2013 The future begins now creating shared value

ST Loan 0.2% LT

Loan 37%

Bond (USD) 17%

Bond (THB) 45%

75,021 76,481 81,937 73,771

62,751

23,608

64,439

34,767

6,524

44,207

5,408

43,246

Balance Sheet with Diversified Debt Portfolio

144,296 151,784

Cash & ST Investment

PP&E

Other Assets

IBD

Other Liabilities

Equities

Unit: MB

Float 29 THB 43

Fixed 71 USD 57

Currency (%) Interest Rate (%)

Net Debt = 37,838 MB

USD/THB = 31.27

Debt Structure

“Ba1” Negative outlook

Credit Ratings

“BB+” Stable outlook

“A- (tha)” Stable outlook

Financial Position As of June 30, 2013

2Q12 1Q13 2Q13

Cost of Debt 5.37% p.a. 4.16% p.a. 4.04% p.a.

Net Debt/Equity

2Q12* 3Q 4Q* 1Q13 2Q

0.46 0.47 0.51 0.52 0.51

< 1.0x

2012* 2Q13

ST Loan 66

LT Loan 16,128

Bond (USD) 7,424

Bond (THB) 19,628

Total 43,246

Debt (MB)

Change

(% )

Assets 145,898 141,977 3%

Cash and Mkt. Sec. 4,109 6,524 (37)%

AR 17,106 14,140 21%

Inventory 32,090 31,253 3%

PPE & IP 76,194 75,021 2%

Other assets 16,399 15,039 9%

Liabilities & Equity 145,898 141,977 3%

AP 18,713 15,515 21%

IBD 43,820 44,207 (1)%

Other liabilities 6,746 8,093 (17)%

Equity 76,619 74,162 3%

Unit : MB 31-Dec-1231-Mar-13

*Restated net D/E ratio 2Q12 = 0.44, 4Q12 = 0.49

As of June 30, 2013

17 *Restated from effective TAS 12 Income Taxes

Page 18: Analyst Meeting 2Q13 - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/PRESN/20130822-IRPC...2013/08/22  · Analyst Meeting 2Q13 21 August 2013 The future begins now creating shared value

Recent Credit Rating Actions

• On 18 June, S&P downgraded IRPC's rating to „BB+‟ (Stable Outlook) from „BBB-‟ (Stable Outlook).

• On 2 July, Moody's downgraded IRPC's rating to „Ba1‟ (Negative Outlook) from „Baa3‟ (Stable Outlook).

S&P Rating Action

Standalone Credit Profile

Previous Now

Uplift from Parental Support

Previous Now

BB+ BB-

+1 Notch +2 Notches

Final IRPC Credit Rating

Previous Now

BBB- BB+

Moodys‟ Rating Action

Standalone Credit Profile

Previous Now

Uplift from Parental Support

Previous Now

Ba1 Ba3

+1 Notch +2 Notches

Final IRPC Credit Rating

Previous Now

Baa3 Ba1

Rationales

To reflect expected IRPC

relatively weaker operating

performance for a couple of

years.

To reflect

(i) Synergy from operating

integration with PTT

group

(ii) Increased support from

PTT on working capital

and other funding

requirements

18

Page 19: Analyst Meeting 2Q13 - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/PRESN/20130822-IRPC...2013/08/22  · Analyst Meeting 2Q13 21 August 2013 The future begins now creating shared value

Mitigation for Recent Credit Rating Downgrade

Reduce cash cycle & improve liquidity Sufficiently free up W/C credit lines PTT Group liquidity management collaboration

Discipline on financial metrics Maintain access to domestic capital markets Proactive refinancing plan

Ensure Sufficient Corporate Funding

Long-term

Funding

Liquidity

Management

19

Page 20: Analyst Meeting 2Q13 - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/PRESN/20130822-IRPC...2013/08/22  · Analyst Meeting 2Q13 21 August 2013 The future begins now creating shared value

I. 2Q13 Highlights

II. Operation & Financial Performance

III. Project Update

IV. Industry Outlook

V. Appendix

Agenda

20

Page 21: Analyst Meeting 2Q13 - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/PRESN/20130822-IRPC...2013/08/22  · Analyst Meeting 2Q13 21 August 2013 The future begins now creating shared value

Phoenix Project: #4 EBSM Upgrading for ABS specialties

• To expand EBSM to support ABS specialties production and to produce NANO additive for own use and reduce production costs

Progress : 100%

1. EHIA approval in Jul 11 2. DIW approval in Aug 12 3. EBSM: MC on 23 July 13 4. ABS6: MC on 10 May 13

EBSM 200 KTA EBSM 260 KTA

Project Description: Increase EBSM feed stock for ABS product.

Capacity Expansion: Increase EBSM from 200 KTA to 260 KTA.

Expected EBIT: USD 12 million/year

EBSM Completion 3Q13

SAN3

ABS6

Completed

Completed

21

As of July 13

Page 22: Analyst Meeting 2Q13 - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/PRESN/20130822-IRPC...2013/08/22  · Analyst Meeting 2Q13 21 August 2013 The future begins now creating shared value

Phoenix Project: #16 Lube Blending Business Improvement

Project Description: Increase lube blending capacity 60 ML per year

CAPEX: USD 7.0 million

Expected EBIT: USD 3 million/year

Progress: 93%

1. Filling Machine: Completed

2. MC: End of July 13

3. COD: Expected in Sep 13

12 m.Ltrs./year

(1 m.Ltrs./month)

72 m.Ltrs./year

(6 m.Ltrs./month)

22

As of July 13

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Phoenix Project: #2 Upstream Project for Hygiene & Value Added Product (UHV)

Project Description: Upgrading bottom refinery product to high value added for Petrochem feedstock

Capacity Expansion: Increase propylene from 412 KTA to 732 KTA.

Progress : 45%, now Under construction, piling and foundation. 1. EIA approved in Jan 13 2. MC: 1Q15 3. COD: 3Q15

412 KTA

Existing Propylene

320

KTA

UHV 732

KTA

Total Propylene

23 As of July 13

Page 24: Analyst Meeting 2Q13 - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/PRESN/20130822-IRPC...2013/08/22  · Analyst Meeting 2Q13 21 August 2013 The future begins now creating shared value

After completion of UHV

• Running at full capacity of 215 KBD

• Propylene 320 KTA

• Light Distillate yield

• Crude Selection Flexibility

Sweet : Sour = 30:70 20:80

24

Benefits of UHV Project

Production Yield

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Current Run +40 KBD Crude Run with UHV

20%

43%

8%

11%

10%

35%

35%

38%

11%

10%

19% 20%

21%

4% 2%

5% 6% 2% Ethylene

Propylene

LPG

Naphtha

Gasoline

Diesel/Jet

Lube Base

FO

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Other Projects

Phoenix

BAU

Market GIM

GIM up 50%

Other projects consist of CHP, PRP and ABS6/SAN3

Currently running at full capacity is not optimal.

at 175 KBD

Page 25: Analyst Meeting 2Q13 - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/PRESN/20130822-IRPC...2013/08/22  · Analyst Meeting 2Q13 21 August 2013 The future begins now creating shared value

I. 2Q13 Highlights

II. Operation & Financial Performance

III. Project Update

IV. Industry Outlook

V. Appendix

Agenda

25

Page 26: Analyst Meeting 2Q13 - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/PRESN/20130822-IRPC...2013/08/22  · Analyst Meeting 2Q13 21 August 2013 The future begins now creating shared value

26

Global Oil Demand/Supply

Demand

Strong demand growth, especially from Asian

countries, is expected to rebound in 2H13. As

such, the total demand increase from the lowest

to the highest of 2013 is 4.15 MMB/D.

Middle distillate cracks are expected to

strengthen for the next few months as demand

picks up seasonally.

Import requirements into Latin America are

expected to increase because of lower

inventory coverage.

Supply

In addition to political turmoil, particularly in

Libya, Iraq, Syria and Nigeria, potential supply

outages from North Sea maintenance and

hurricane are expected.

Anticipated solid demand growth and potential

supply losses result in expectation of strong

crude stock draws in July and August 2013.

Data Source: PIRA, Asia-Pacific Oil Market Forecast (July 18, 2013)

Data Source: PIRA, World Oil Market Forecast (June 25, 2013) , IEA report (July 11,2013)

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PE Huge Demand Growth Opportunities in Asia

27

Global PE demand growth continues to increase at

4.6% which is higher than the GDP growth

60% of the incremental demand is from Asia, mainly

from China and India.

Expect high cost producers in Europe will shut down

some plants over the next five years.

Reducing operating rate, moving away from

commodity grade production and focusing on

specialty grade are the key challenges.

Source : IHS APIC Conference2013 Source : IHS APIC Conference2013

Spread

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Asia – The Driving The Global PP Demand

28

Asia will be the global PP demand growth

driver.

Rising economic activity and increasing

purchasing power of the population is

expected to boost the demand for packaging

and appliances.

PP dynamic will continue to change but the

versatility of PP is still expected to support its

demand.

Source : IHS APIC Conference2013

Forecasted Demand Growth Between 2012-2017

Versatility of PP: Inter-Polymer & Inter-Material Shift….

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More Promising prospects of EPS &PS

29

EPS end-uses is expected to grow strongly

because of strong public housing markets in

North East Asia.

The growth of PS capacity in Asia is expected

to be relatively flat and thus over-supply

condition is unlikely.

A gradual improvement in the ABS market will

come back to growth momentum in line with

GDP.

Source : IHS Petrochemical Price forecast June 2013

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30

Lube Base Oil Gradually Recover

Maintenance shutdown schedule is expected in North East Asia

- Declining spot supply

- Stockpiling demand for tem commitment during turnaround

Singapore major refiner increased their term prices of base oil GI & GII to maintain spread from the

rising feedstocks prices. This upward price pressure should positively affect the market sentiment.

The demand for Bright Stock and heavy grade is expected to be relatively solid in China during the

summer season.

But, sluggish demand in finished lubricant market still put pressure on the lube base oil market.

Page 31: Analyst Meeting 2Q13 - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/PRESN/20130822-IRPC...2013/08/22  · Analyst Meeting 2Q13 21 August 2013 The future begins now creating shared value

I. 2Q13 Highlights

II. Operation & Financial Performance

III. Project Update

IV. Industry Outlook

V. Appendix

31

Agenda

Page 32: Analyst Meeting 2Q13 - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/PRESN/20130822-IRPC...2013/08/22  · Analyst Meeting 2Q13 21 August 2013 The future begins now creating shared value

Phoenix Initiatives & Roadmap

Capacity & Products

Expansion

Capacity & Product

Expansion

Operational Efficiency

Improvement Asset Utilization

Enhancement

Product & Services

Improvement

Petrochem Petroleum Port & Tank Real Estate & Services

6. Supply Chain Optimization

(Griffin and Trading)

3. Ethylene Specialty

Development

7. Lube Group 1 Specialty

Products Focus

12. I'M ACE: IRPC Service

Solutions

1. Petrochem Operation &

Energy Efficiency

5. Petroleum Operation &

Energy Efficiency

9 . New Value Added for Port

and Tank Business 2. Capacity Development for

Propylene Growth

11. Build and sustain land for

green industrial

complex

4. EBSM Upgrading for ABS

Specialty

14. Performance Chemical

Business Development

Project

8. Petroleum quality

improvement to clean fuel

and green growth

development

13. Petrochem Catalyst

Commercialization

15. Utilities for

Sustainability

16: Oil Depot and Lube

Blending Business

Improvement

17: Analytical Lab

19: Hydrocarbon Management

20: Intellectual Property

Stewardship

32

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33

Additional Capacity in Phoenix Projects

Nov.

+14 KTA +49 KTA +23 KTA

Sep.

+60 KTA

-

2012

-

2013

-

2014

-

2015

-

2016

-

2017

Sep. TDAE 28 KTA 150BS 25 KTA

Feb.

GHU 15 KBD

Mar.

Co-Invest Diesel 10KBD Kerosene 15KBD

Ethylene

Special

Development

EBSM

Upgrading for

ABS

Lube Group1

Petroleum

Quality

Improvement

HDPE

140/140 KTA

SM

200/260 KTA

TDAE 22/50 KTA

150BS 95/120 KTA

EURO IV

Gasoline 15KBD

Diesel 10KBD

Kerosene 15KBD

Project Total Capacity

Old/New

Oct.

Propylene 100 KTA

Sep.

Propylene

320 KTA

PRP+ Propylene

Growth (UHV) Propylene

312/732 KTA

SAN3/ABS6 Apr.

+60 KTA

ABS/SAN

117/177 KTA

UHMW-PE Sep.

+4 KTA +12 KTA

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Phoenix Project: #3 Ethylene Specialty Development

Commodity Product

HDPE

High Value Product

HDPE

Project Description: High Value Added Product of HDPE Specialty & PE Wax

CAPEX: USD 9 million

Expected EBIT: USD 5 million/year

Progress: 62% Under Construction

1. HDU I: Completed

2. HDU II & Convert Plant: Completion in 1Q14

34 As of July 13

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Refinery & Lube

ADU

Lube Base

Asphalt

Products 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

CDU 215 KBD 215 KBD

150BS 95 KTA 120 KTA

TDAE 22 KTA 50 KTA

Lube Group 1 Specialty Products:

Increase high value added lube specialty products: TDAE & Bright Stock

+28 KTA

Petroleum Quality Improvement to Clean Fuel & Green Growth Development:

Upgrading HSD / Gasoline to be EURO IV standard

Products 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Gasoline 75 M.Ltrs 75 M.Ltrs

Diesel 180 M.Ltrs 180 M.Ltrs

50 KTA

Phoenix by Business Unit

120 KTA +25 KTA

35

Initiative

7

Initiative

8

Page 36: Analyst Meeting 2Q13 - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/PRESN/20130822-IRPC...2013/08/22  · Analyst Meeting 2Q13 21 August 2013 The future begins now creating shared value

Olefins Products 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Ethylene 360 KTA 433 KTA

Propylene 312 KTA 732 KTA

Butadiene 56 KTA 56 KTA

Acetylene 4 KTA 4 KTA

Upstream Project for Hygiene & Value Added Products (UHV):

Upgrading low value product (HS-ATB) to be high value added product for petrochemical feedstock:

Propylene 320 KTA, Ethylene 73 KTA, and Heavy Aromatic Naphtha 250 KTA, etc.

+320 KTA +100 KTA

+73 KTA

412 KTA 732 KTA

433 KTA

Products 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

PP 475 KTA 475 KTA

PP Specialties 100 KTA

HDPE 140 KTA 140 KTA

Performance Chemical Business Development Project:

PP Compound & PP Specialty

To create value added of propylene from UHV by initiating new products shifting from commodity

market to specialty market.

Phoenix by Business Unit (Con‟t)

Polyolefins

36

Initiative

2

Initiative

14 +100 KTA

Page 37: Analyst Meeting 2Q13 - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/PRESN/20130822-IRPC...2013/08/22  · Analyst Meeting 2Q13 21 August 2013 The future begins now creating shared value

Products 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Benzene 114 KTA 114 KTA

Toluene 132 KTA 132 KTA

Mixed Xylene 121 KTA 121 KTA

Products 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

SM 200 KTA 260 KTA

ABS/SAN 117 KTA 177 KTA

PS 100 KTA 100 KTA

EPS 30 KTA 30 KTA

+60 KTA

Performance Chemical Business Development Project:

Increase 60 KTA EBSM for feeding ABS specialty.

To satisfy local demand for ABS/SAN expansion and to produce Nano additive.

260 KTA

Styrene

+60 KTA 177 KTA

ABS/SAN Expansion 6

Increase ABS/SAN from 117 KTA to 177 KTA to support ABS specialties production and Nano

additive production.

Phoenix by Business Unit (Con‟t)

Aromatics

37

Initiative

4

Page 38: Analyst Meeting 2Q13 - listed companyirpc.listedcompany.com/misc/PRESN/20130822-IRPC...2013/08/22  · Analyst Meeting 2Q13 21 August 2013 The future begins now creating shared value

38

Thank You

Investor Relations Contact: [email protected]

Tel. 02-649-7380, Fax. 02-649-7379

Presentation is available at

www.irpc.co.th

Click “Presentations”

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recipient of the information and data contained herein should perform its own independent investigation and analysis of the transaction and the creditworthiness of IRPC . Reference in this Disclaimer to this shall include references to the Appendices (if any) hereto.