An Impact Analysis of Electrifying Florida’s Public Buses

An Impact An Impact Analysis of Analysis of Electrifying Electrifying Florida’s Public Florida’s Public BusesBuses

AER Group, Tallahassee FLAER Group, Tallahassee FLBuddy Atkins, Vesselka McAlarney, Alicia Queen

Project ScopeProject Scope

Proterra Inc. contracted AER Group to perform an impact analysis of converting Florida public buses from diesel to electric

• Direct cost savings

• Indirect benefits

2

Electric Bus AlternativeElectric Bus Alternative

The Proterra EcoRide• Equivalent lifespan of

a diesel bus (12 years)• Improved fuel

efficiency • Simplified motor• FastFill™ Charging

Station

3

MethodologyMethodology

4

ImpactAnalysis

CostComparison

AdditionalBenefits

Initial Investment

Annual Expenditures

IncreasedEconomic Activity

ReducedExternalities


5

ImpactAnalysis

CostComparison

AdditionalBenefits

Initial Investment

Annual Expenditures


ReducedExternalities

• Purchase Price• Facility

Upgrades

Initial Investment for Initial Investment for Electric Higher than Electric Higher than DieselDiesel

Source: Proterra Inc., American Public Transportation Association Factbook, 2012 6

$790,000

$790,000

$480,000

$480,000

Initial Investment for Initial Investment for Electric Higher than Electric Higher than DieselDiesel

7

$310,000

Source: Proterra Inc., American Public Transportation Association Factbook, 2012

Federal Grants Cover at least 80% Federal Grants Cover at least 80% of Initial Investment for Electric of Initial Investment for Electric and Dieseland Diesel

Source: US Department of Transportation Federal Transit Administration, NTD 8

Tallahassee’s StarMetro received 100% federal funding for electric buses in 2011

Initial Investment for Electric Higher Initial Investment for Electric Higher than Diesel, but Offset by Federal than Diesel, but Offset by Federal GrantsGrants

9

$62,000

Source: Proterra Inc., American Public Transportation Association Factbook 2012


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ImpactAnalysis

CostComparison

AdditionalBenefits

Initial Investment

Annual Expenditures


Reduced Externalities

• Maintenance• Fuel Cost

Electric Bus Has a Simpler Electric Bus Has a Simpler Mechanical SystemMechanical System

11Proterra Inc., 2013

Engine

Engine OilTraction MotorGearbox

Battery

ElectricElectricvsvs..

DieselDiesel

Engine Components

Fuel Systems Exhaust Systems

Belts Alternator

Retarder

Lifetime Maintenance Costs for Lifetime Maintenance Costs for an Electric Bus Are Less than an Electric Bus Are Less than DieselDiesel

12US National Transit Database, 1991 - 2011

Lifetime Maintenance Costs for Lifetime Maintenance Costs for an Electric Bus Are Less than an Electric Bus Are Less than DieselDiesel

13US National Transit Database, 1991 - 2011

$112,000

Electricity and Diesel Price Electricity and Diesel Price Projections Needed to Estimate Projections Needed to Estimate Fuel Costs to 2035Fuel Costs to 2035

14Source: US Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook, 2013

Source: US Energy Information Administration 15

Apply National Diesel Price Apply National Diesel Price Projections to Florida without Projections to Florida without ModificationModification

Source: US Energy Information Administration 16

Apply National Diesel Price Apply National Diesel Price Projections to Florida without Projections to Florida without ModificationModification

Florida Projection

Electricity Prices Vary Due To Electricity Prices Vary Due To Numerous Utilities Throughout Numerous Utilities Throughout FloridaFlorida

17Source: Florida Public Service Commission, Facts and Figures 2013

Buses Concentrated in Buses Concentrated in Densely Populated AreasDensely Populated Areas

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EscambiaSanta Rosa

OkaloosaWalton

HolmesJackson

Washington

Bay

Calhoun

Gulf Franklin

Liberty

Gadsden

Leon

Wakulla

Jefferson Madison

Taylor

Hamilton

Suwannee

Lafayette

Dixie

ColumbiaBaker

UnionBradford Clay

Alachua

LevyMarion

Putnam

St. Johns

Duval

Nassau

Gilchrist

Citrus

Flagler

Volusia

SeminoleLake

SumterHernando

BrevardOrange

Pasco

Hillsborough

Pinellas

Manatee

Sarasota

PolkOsceola

Indian River

OkeechobeeHighlands

Hardee

DeSoto

Charlotte

Lee

Glades

Martin

St. Lucie

Palm BeachHendry

CollierBroward

Monroe

Miami-Dade

Number of BusesNo buses1-5051-200201-500501-1,000

Source: Florida Department of Transportation

Apply National Electricity Price Apply National Electricity Price Projections to Florida, Reduced Projections to Florida, Reduced by 12%by 12%

19Source: EIA, FMEA

Apply National Electricity Price Apply National Electricity Price Projections to Florida, Reduced Projections to Florida, Reduced by 12%by 12%

20Source: EIA, FMEA

Electric Buses Are 5x Electric Buses Are 5x More Fuel Efficient than More Fuel Efficient than DieselDiesel

Source: Penn State Bus Testing and Research Center, NTD 21

Lifetime Fuel Expenditures for Lifetime Fuel Expenditures for Electric $450K less than Diesel Electric $450K less than Diesel

22Source: Penn State, NTD

$445,000

Total Lifetime Cost for Total Lifetime Cost for Electric Bus Lower than Electric Bus Lower than DieselDiesel

23Source: NTD, APTA, Proterra Inc., Penn State, EIA

Total Lifetime Cost for Total Lifetime Cost for Electric Bus Lower than Electric Bus Lower than DieselDiesel

24Source: NTD, APTA, Proterra Inc., Penn State, EIA

$464,000

Conversion Plan – Conversion Plan – Purchase 200 Electric Purchase 200 Electric Buses Each YearBuses Each Year

25

Full Conversion

Annual Total Cost of Annual Total Cost of Diesel Fleet and Diesel Fleet and ConversionConversion

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Initial Investme

nt

Increased Fuel

Efficiency

Battery Purchase

Full Conversi

on

Total Cost Difference

Despite Initial Loss, Total Cost Despite Initial Loss, Total Cost of Electric Fleet is $120M Less of Electric Fleet is $120M Less Per YearPer Year

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Initial Deficit

Recoupment $120

million

Full Conversion

Electric Fleet Continues to Electric Fleet Continues to Generate Savings with Constant Generate Savings with Constant Federal GrantsFederal Grants

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Reference

Constant Grants

$85 M

Electricity and Diesel Prices Electricity and Diesel Prices Stay Constant Until 2035Stay Constant Until 2035

29Source: US Energy Information Administration

Electricity and Diesel Prices Electricity and Diesel Prices Stay Constant Until 2035Stay Constant Until 2035

30Source: US Energy Information Administration

Electric Fleet Continues to Electric Fleet Continues to Generate Savings with Constant Generate Savings with Constant Fuel PricesFuel Prices

31

Constant Fuel Prices

Reference

$80 M


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ImpactAnalysis

CostComparison

AdditionalBenefits

Initial Investment

Annual Expenditures




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ImpactAnalysis

CostComparison

AdditionalBenefits

Initial Investment

Annual Expenditures



Electrifying Public Bus Electrifying Public Bus System May Create New System May Create New JobsJobs

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Additional Electricity Demand Additional Electricity Demand May Require a New Power Plant May Require a New Power Plant in Floridain Florida

Current supply and demand of electricity is in equilibrium

Charging electric buses at peak times will create unplanned demand for electricity

A new electricity plant of 85 MW may be needed

35Source: Florida Public Service Commission

If a New 85 MW Electric Plant Is If a New 85 MW Electric Plant Is Built, It Will Stimulate the Built, It Will Stimulate the Florida EconomyFlorida Economy

Category Estimate

Construction Spending $110 million

Operating Cost $2.5 million/year

Annual Sales $50 million/year

New Jobs (direct & indirect)

100 permanent jobs

Personal Income Increase

$20 million

36Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Florida Public Service Commission

Estimates produced using a regional economic model by REMI, Inc.

Local Governments Can Divert Local Governments Can Divert Transit Cost Savings of $120M to Transit Cost Savings of $120M to Other ServicesOther Services

If cost savings are spent on education:

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Category Estimate

Annual Cost Savings $120 million

New Jobs (direct & indirect)

500 permanent jobs

Personal Income Increase

$40 millionEstimates produced using a regional economic

model by REMI, Inc.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, FMEA, FDOT, Proterra Inc.

Electrifying Public Bus System Electrifying Public Bus System Could Reduce Negative Could Reduce Negative ExternalitiesExternalities Since 2001, “clean diesel” has helped

reduce air pollutants

CO2 emissions have not been reduced

Will conversion aid in the reduction of CO2?Will conversion aid in the reduction of CO2?

Source: USF Center for Urban Transportation Research (2009), US EPA 38

CO2 from Electric Buses Comes CO2 from Electric Buses Comes from Production of Electricity at from Production of Electricity at Power PlantsPower Plants

Source: Public Utilities Commission; EIA

40 metric tons of CO40 metric tons of CO22 per bus per bus annuallyannually

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COCO22 Emissions Are Emissions Are

Significantly Lower for Significantly Lower for Electric BusesElectric Buses

CO2 emissions are 75% lower for an electric

bus!

Source: CUTR, NTD, EIA, Florida Public Services Commission 40

Electrifying Transit Will Electrifying Transit Will Continually Reduce Continually Reduce COCO22 EmissionsEmissions

At full conversion, 300k tons of CO2 can be

saved

41Source: CUTR, NTD, EIA, Florida Public Services Commission

Electrifying Could Reduce Electrifying Could Reduce Externality Cost by as Much as Externality Cost by as Much as $7M Annually$7M Annually

42Source: CUTR, NTD, EIA, Florida Public Services Commission

$4m

$4.5m

$7.5m

ConclusionConclusionImpact of Electrifying Florida’s Public Buses

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44

ImpactAnalysis

CostComparison

AdditionalBenefits

Initial Investment

Annual Expenditures



Florida Would Benefit from Florida Would Benefit from Electrifying the Public Bus Electrifying the Public Bus SystemSystem

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At full conversion:• Annual cost savings of $120M$120M• Creation of up to 600 jobs 600 jobs • Reduced externality effect by $7M $7M

It makes economic sense economic sense for Florida to adopt an electric bus system

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Documents

An Impact Analysis of Electrifying Florida’s Public Buses