Aluminum Content in European Cars · 2019 vs. 2025 Car Production by Segment (Million units) 0 100 200 300 400 500 Fiat 500 Fiat New Panda C3 Aircross VW Up! Smart Fortwo Ford Fiesta

© 2019 DuckerFrontier. All rights reserved | www.duckerfrontier.com 1© 2019 DuckerFrontier. All rights reserved | www.duckerfrontier.com 1

A L U M I N U M C O N T E N T I N E U R O P E A N PA S S E N G E R C A R S

- Public Summary -

10.10.2019

Prepared for


TA B L E O F C O N T E N T

Assessment Scope 3

European Car Production 5

European Electric Vehicle Production 7

Aluminum Content in Cars 9

Aluminum Content by Vehicle Segment 11

Aluminum Content by Vehicle Brand 13

Aluminum Content by Vehicle Model 14

Aluminum Content by Component Group 15

Aluminum Content by Forming Process 19

Aluminum Content Evolution 2016-2028 20

Comparison of Aluminum Content by Powertrain Type 21


A S S E S S M E N T S C O P E

Application scope: Passenger cars

Geographic scope: EU 28 (production location in EU 28 - CKD not included)

Vehicle sample: accounts for 94.3% of total EU 28 production • Vehicle models have been jointly selected with EA

• 11 pure BEV models included in the sample:

Product scope: aluminum components • 11 components groups• 38 components in focus (see following page)

⁻ BMW 3 Series EV⁻ Mercedes Benz EQC⁻ Mercedes Benz EQE Sedan⁻ Ford C EV⁻ Peugeot 208 EV⁻ Renault Zoe ZE⁻ Jaguar I-Pace⁻ Audi e-tron GT⁻ Audi e-tron⁻ Porsche Taycan⁻ Volkswagen ID.3 (previously called Neo)

Scope Deliverables

CURRENT ALUMINUM CONTENT IN CARS1 (2019)• Aluminium content by vehicle

Component net weight (for components in focus) Forming process / Product form (sheet vs. extruded vs.

cast vs. forged) Estimated additional aluminum content by vehicle

(subcategories “Other”) [For engine blocks, cylinder heads and steering

knuckles only] Share of primary vs. secondary aluminum

• Average aluminium content per vehicle (after extrapolation to whole EU28 production)

Average component net weight (for components in focus) by vehicle segment

Average net weight of consolidated components in focus segmented by product form

Average additional aluminium content per component group

ALUMINUM CONTENT FORECASTS (2025, 20282)• Total• By component group• By forming process• By component

[1] Total market exploration for conventional/hybrid-versions only; only selected EV sample analyzed[2] 2028 forecasts are modelled based on 2025 aluminum content data and projected 2028 vehicle production using same CAGR as from 2019 to 2025

This assessment of the Aluminum Content in European Passenger Cars encompasses all aluminum applications in a car, includes electric vehicles, and is based on the analysis of a car sample covering nearly 95% of total EU28 production


A S S E S S M E N T S C O P E

Component Group Component Approach

Engine

Blocks Research

Heads Research

Head Covers Research

Pistons Research

Powertrain Mounts Research

Oil Pans Research

Other Engine Modelling

Steering Research

Chassis & Suspension

Suspension Arms Research

Steering Knuckles (Front) Research

Wheel Carriers (Rear) Research

Front & Rear Subframes Research

Other Chassis & Suspension Modelling

Wheels Research

Brakes Research

Trim & Interior

External Trim Research

Roof Rails Research

Interior Trims Modelling

Sun roofs Modelling

Pans & Tracks Modelling

Heat Transfer

Heat Exchangers Modelling

Heat Shields Modelling

Other Heat Transfer Modelling

Component Group Component Approach

Transmission

Transmission Case Research

Differential Case Research

Transfer Case Research

Driveshaft Research

Other Transmission Modelling

Body Structure

Complete Body Structures Research

Shock Towers Research

Rails Research

Radiator Supports Research

Structural Parts Research

IP Structures Research

Floor Group Research

Body Side Panels Research

Other Body Structure Modelling

Closures

Hoods Research

Fenders Research

Liftgates, Decklids & Tailgates Research

Front & Rear Doors Research

Roofs Research

Other Closures Modelling

Crash Management Bumpers & Crash Boxes Research

ElectrificationBattery Boxes Research

Electric Motor Housing Research

Aluminum applications are classified into 12 component groups. Within a component group, the focus has been set on select main AL components; remaining applications have been considered in the each sub-category “Other”


16.917.0

16.816.7

17.2

17.4

17.717.8

18.0

18.3

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2019 2025

E U R O P E A N C A R P R O D U C T I O N

Car production forecasts expect steady growth, with a CAGR of 1.54% from 2019 to 2025.The Volkswagen brand leads the European market, accounting alone for approx. 2 million cars produced in the EU28

Car Production by Brand 2016-2025 (EU 28)(Thousand units)

10-year European Car Production 2016-2025 (EU 28)(Million Units)

CAGR: 1.54%

Source: LMCA Database Q1 2019 + Ducker Frontier estimates


6%

26%

43%

15%

10%

A - BASIC

B - SUB-COMPACT

C - COMPACT

D - MIDSIZE

E - LARGE

1.09 1.03

4.33 5.09

7.127.57

2.472.74

1.68

1.86

2019 2025

E U R O P E A N C A R P R O D U C T I O N

C-Compact vehicles (e.g. VW Golf, Ford Focus, etc.) make up the majority of the car production (43%). Segment split is expected to remain similar till 2025, though with stronger growth from B-segment and a decrease of A-segment


2019 Car Production by Segment

16.7M

Highest Production Programs by Segment (2019, Thousand Units)

2019 vs. 2025 Car Production by Segment(Million units)

0 100 200 300 400 500

Fiat 500Fiat New Panda

C3 AircrossVW Up!

Smart Fortwo

Ford FiestaVW Polo

Dacia DusterCitroen C3Opel Corsa

VW GolfFord Focus

Nissan QashqaiVW Tiguan

Peugeot 3008

BMW 3-SeriesAudi A4

Mercedes-Benz GLCVW Passat

Volvo XC60

Mercedes-Benz E-ClassBMW 5-Series

Audi A6Audi Q7

Range Rover Sport


E U R O P E A N E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E P R O D U C T I O N

Electric vehicle production (BEV and PHEV combined) is expected to rapidly ramp-up, with a CAGR of over 30% between 2019 and 2025


10-year EV Production (EU 28) – PHEV & BEVUnits

5% 4% 4% 5% 4%13% 10% 11%14%

19%19% 20%

42% 35% 38% 33%

44%

46%

43%

41%

40%

42%

19%24%

23%

22%

22%

21%

21%

21%

26%26%

27%

19%

16%

16%

15%

15%

14%

193,543 278,357

383,927

597,420

1,085,810

1,528,240

1,969,863

2,407,040

2,875,726

3,324,607

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

A - Basic B - Sub-Compact C - Compact D - Midsize E - Large

CAGR: 33.1%


E U R O P E A N E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E P R O D U C T I O N

BEVs are forecasted to grow faster than PHEVs. C-segment will continue to be predominant. Smaller PHEVs will be introduced (B-segment) and C-segment to gain shares

10% 9% 7% 6% 7% 6%30% 29% 20%17%

20%27%

26%27%

59% 56% 55% 37%38%

42%

39%

36%

37%

39%

17%

21%

20%

21%

19%

18%

18%

11%

11%

13%

12%

12%

11%

84

,23

3

10

2,6

33

18

2,4

90

27

0,5

18

49

1,2

57

84

8,5

94

1,2

22

,05

7 1

,59

6,9

34

1,9

46

,98

4 2,2

77

,19

9

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

10-year BEV Production 2016-2025 (EU 28)

4% 4% 4% 4%28% 23% 22%30%

49%51%

50% 49% 46%49%

39% 36% 30%

29%

24%

24%25%

25%

28%

27%

34%41% 48%

40%

25%

23%

21%21%

21%

20%

10

9,3

10

17

5,7

24

20

1,4

37

32

6,9

02

59

4,5

53

67

9,6

46

74

7,8

06

81

0,1

06

92

8,7

42

1,0

47

,40

8

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

10-year PHEV Production 2016-2025 (EU 28)


A - Basic B - Sub-Compact C - Compact D - Midsize E - Large

CAGR: 42.6% CAGR: 21.4%


A L U M I N U M C O N T E N T I N C A R S ( 2 0 1 9 )

Average Aluminum Content per Vehicle currently amounts to nearly 179kg and Total Aluminum Content for the whole car market (including electric vehicles) is estimated at 2,989 KT – most of which being aluminum castings

* Extrusions exclude forging stock

Aluminum Content in Cars (2019)Net weight

Average Al Content Per Vehicle

Total Al Content

179.2 kg 2,989 KT

Cast 116.0 kg 1,936 KT

Sheet 34.0 kg 567 KT

Extrusions* 19.0 kg 317 KT

Forged 10.2 kg 169 KT


A L U M I N U M C O N T E N T I N C A R S ( 2 0 2 5 )

Average AL Content per Vehicle is expected to increase by approx. 20kg to 198.8kg by 2025, bringing the Total AL Content in European cars to 3,635 KT. AL casting is expected to remain the predominant forming process

Aluminum Content in Cars (2025)Net weight

Average Al Content Per Vehicle

Total Al Content

198.8 kg 3,635 KT

Cast 118.1 kg 2,161 KT

Sheet 43.2 kg 789 KT

Extrusions* 26.7 kg 489 KT

Forged 10.7 kg 196 KT

* Extrusions exclude forging stock


D - MidsizeC - CompactB - Sub-Compact

A L U M I N U M C O N T E N T B Y V E H I C L E S E G M E N T

While E-segment vehicles have the highest Average AL Content per Vehicle (442kg), C-segment vehicles capture the largest share (36%) of Total AL demand due to the overall volume of C-segment vehicle production

Total: 2,989 KT

Total AL Content by Vehicle Segment (2019, Net Weight in KT) Average AL Content by Vehicle Segment (2019, Net Weight in kg)

Vehicle Programs with the Highest Average AL Content (Net Weight 2019) per Segment

A - Basic E - Large

2019 Production: ~27K unitsTotal AL Content 2019: 2.6 KTAvg. AL Content 2019: 110kg

Opel Adam


Audi e-tron


Jaguar I-Pace


BMW i3


Audi Q2

7798

152

266

442

A - BASIC B - SUB-COMPACT

C - COMPACT D - MIDSIZE E - LARGEA - BASIC; 84

B - SUB-COMPACT; 423

C - COMPACT; 1,085

D - MIDSIZE; 656

E - LARGE; 742 A 3%

B 14%

C 36%D 22%

E 25%


179.2

76.897.7

152.4

265.9

442.1

198.8

79.8

110.9

170.8

303.9

464.2

Avg. ALContent

A B C D E Avg. ALContent

A B C D E

2019 2025

+19.6

A L U M I N U M C O N T E N T B Y V E H I C L E S E G M E N T

The Average AL Content per Vehicle is forecasted to increase by 19.6kg between 2019 to 2025 - only 2.9kg in A-segment vehicles, but up to 38kg in D-segment vehicles. Growth will come from sheet and extrusions

Average Aluminum Content per Vehicle between 2019-2025 by Segment Net Weight in kg

+2.9

+13.1

+18.3

+38.0

+22.2

Average additional AL content per vehicle (kg) in 2025 as compared with 2019

+xx.x


Below Market AverageAbove Market Average532

479

416

378

294276 273 273 267

188 179

148 144129 129 129 128 125 123 123 121 115 115 110 109 102 96 91 87

72

164

A L U M I N U M C O N T E N T B Y V E H I C L E B R A N D

However, on a per vehicle level, Jaguar Land Rover models have the highest aluminum content. All premium brands are above market average, reversely all volume brands are below average

Average AL Content per Vehicle by Brand 2019, Net Weight in KG


804 794

746704

679649 641 633

614 613 600 586562 549 543 533 532 530 516 511

179

A L U M I N U M C O N T E N T B Y V E H I C L E M O D E L

8 out of the 20 most aluminum-intensive vehicle models belong to the JLR group. The model with the highest AL content however is the Audi e-tron with 804kg AL content (nearly 4.5 times the market average)

Top 20 Vehicle Models with the Highest Average AL Content per Vehicle2019, Net Weight in kg


A L U M I N U M C O N T E N T B Y C O M P O N E N T G R O U P

Engine and Wheels together represent almost half of Total Aluminum Content in cars (~45%)

Engine702

Wheels642

Transmission323

Chassis314

Heat Transfer310

Body Closures200

Body Structure235

Crash Management 74

Steering 61

Brakes 52

Trims & Interior 25

Other small parts 8

Electrification* 44

*Electrification components includes Battery Box, Battery Cooling and Electric Motor Housing

Total: 2,989 KT

Total Aluminum Content by Component Group 2019, Net Weight in KT



Engine components and Wheels are by far the largest aluminum contributors. Average AL Content per Vehicle related to Battery Box and Electric Motor Housing will grow fast with the expected accelerated production of EVs

2019 Average Aluminum Content per Vehicle by Component Group Incl. all powertrain types, Net Weight in kg

179.2

42

38

19

19

19

12

14

4

4

3

2

1

1

2

TOTAL

Engine

Wheels

Transmission

Chassis

Heat Transfer + Battery Cooling

Body Closures

Body Structure

Crash Management

Steering

Brakes

Trims & Interior

Battery Box

Electric Motor Housing

Other small parts


41.6 42.1 39.7

27.038.5 39.3

17.8

19.4 18.815.6

18.8 19.816.9

18.6 17.610.4

12.0 16.5

8.1

14.1 15.0

3.8

4.44.5

2.9

3.63.7

4.3

3.13.3

2016 2019 2025

Other small parts

Trims & Interior

Brakes

Steering

Crash Management

Body Structure

Body Closures

Heat Transfer

Chassis

Transmission

Wheels

Engine


Electrification components will be the main growth area by 2025, together with Body Closures.Alone Battery Boxes account for nearly 2/3 of the Average AL Content increase to come

* 2016 numbers do not include Electrification components (i.e. Battery Boxes, Battery Cooling and Electric Motor Housings), and are based on a limited sample of 60 vehicles that has beenextrapolated to the whole market. 2016 numbers do also not include the second set of OE wheels that is purchased at the same time as the vehicle

Avg. Aluminum Content Evolution 2016-2025 by Component Group Net Weight in kg

150.5*

179.2198.8+28.7 kg

+19.6 kg



By 2025, Battery Box and Body Closures appear to be the component groups that will most benefit from the Average Aluminum Content growth. On the contrary, aluminum demand for traditional powertrain components will decrease

Expected AL Gains & Losses within Average AL Content per VehicleFor the time period 2019 to 2025 (Net Weight in kg)

BatteryBox

12.38

BodyClosures

4.52 ElectricMotor

Housing2.69

Chassis0.98

BodyStructure

0.97Wheels

0.79 Brakes0.17

CrashManagement

0.09Steering

0.02

HeatTransfer

+BatteryCooling

0.01

Othersmallparts0.00

Trims&

Interior-0.04

Transmission-0.58

Engine-2.43

AL

Gai

ns

AL

Loss

es

179.2 kg 198.8 kg

2019 2025

+19.6 kg


65%6%

19%

11%

66%5%

18%

11%

65%6%

19%

11%

59%

5%

22%

13%

A L U M I N U M C O N T E N T B Y F O R M I N G P R O C E S S

Cast aluminum represents the large majority of the Total Aluminum Content (in 2016, 2019 as well as in 2025).Extrusions and Sheet will win shares by 2025, mainly driven by demand for Electrification components and Closures

Total:2,989 KT

2019 Evolution 2016, 2019, 2025

Cast Forged Sheet Extrusion

Forming Process Split of Total AL Content (Net Weight in KT)

Innermost ring: 2016 (2,620 KT)

Middle Ring: 2019 (2,989 KT)

Outer Ring: 2025 (3,635 KT)


A L U M I N U M C O N T E N T E V O L U T I O N ( 2 0 1 6 - 2 0 2 8 )

The evolution of Total AL Content is expected to continue on a positive trajectory, with further dynamic growth. The 2028 demand is currently forecasted at approximately 4,160 KT (net weight)

2,612

2,989

3,635

4,163

2016 2019 2025 2028

E - Large

D - Midsize

C - Compact

B - Sub-Compact

A - Basic

Total Aluminum Content Evolution 2016-2028 (Net Weight in KT)by Vehicle Segment

CAGR: 4.61%

CAGR: 3.31%

CAGR: 4.62%


308.0

-51.0

+201.8

458.8

90.2

-27.7

+63.7

126.2

ICV Powertrain ALLosses

AL Gains BEV ICV Powertrain ALLosses

AL Gains BEV

C O M PA R I S O N O F A L U M I N U M C O N T E N T B Y P O W E R T R A I N T Y P E

BEVs have significantly higher AL Content than their ICE variant, primarily due to the aluminum used for the Battery Box. Overall, the higher the car segment, the larger the difference in AL Content between BEV and ICE variants

Avg. AL Content per Vehicle for ICE vs. BEV variant2019, Net Weight kg

D-Midsize Vehicle from Premium Brand with ICV and BEV Variants

B-Sub-Compact Vehicle from Volume Brandwith ICV and BEV Variants


C O M PA R I S O N O F A L U M I N U M C O N T E N T B Y P O W E R T R A I N T Y P E

Large batteries for BEV & PHEV, as well as doubled powertrain components for PHEV, are strong drivers for high Average Aluminum Content. Electric vehicle growth will foster a further increase of the Average Aluminum Content per Vehicle

Average Aluminum Content per Vehicle Comparison by Powertrain Variant (2019, Net Weight in kg)

172.1179.2

320.8

360.5

ICV Overall BEV PHEV

+7.1kg

+141.6kg

+39.7kg


T H A N K YO U

This concludes our presentation. Today’s presentation was prepared by DuckerFrontier. To the fullest extent permissible by applicable law, all information contained herein is for informational purposes only and is provided “AS IS”. The information is provided (i) with no guaranty of accuracy, completeness, timeliness or that any defects will be corrected and (ii) without any representations, warranties or other contractual terms of any kind including, without limitation, warranties of title, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. Even if DuckerFrontier was advised, knew or should have known that claims or damages could arise from the use, misuse or delay of use of the information, DuckerFrontier assumes no legal liability for any direct, indirect, consequential, special, punitive or similar claims or damages. The information contained herein does not represent financial, legal, regulatory or other advice and recommendations from DuckerFrontier. Any use of the information is undertaken at your sole risk.

© 2019 DuckerFrontier. All Rights Reserved.

BANGALORE

BERLIN

DETROIT

LONDON

NEW YORK

PARIS

SHANGHAI

SINGAPORE

WASHINGTON, DC

T H A N K YO U

This concludes our presentation. Today’s presentation was prepared by DuckerFrontier. To the fullest extent permissible by applicable law, all information contained herein is for informational purposes only and is provided “AS IS”. The information is provided (i) with no guaranty of accuracy, completeness, timeliness or that any defects will be corrected and (ii) without any representations, warranties or other contractual terms of any kind including, without limitation, warranties of title, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. Even if DuckerFrontier was advised, knew or should have known that claims or damages could arise from the use, misuse or delay of use of the information, DuckerFrontier assumes no legal liability for any direct, indirect, consequential, special, punitive or similar claims or damages. The information contained herein does not represent financial, legal, regulatory or other advice and recommendations from DuckerFrontier. Any use of the information is undertaken at your sole risk.

© 2019 DuckerFrontier. All Rights Reserved.

BANGALORE

BERLIN

DETROIT

LONDON

NEW YORK

PARIS

SHANGHAI

SINGAPORE

WASHINGTON, DC

Documents

Aluminum Content in European Cars · 2019 vs. 2025 Car Production by Segment (Million units) 0 100 200 300 400 500 Fiat 500 Fiat New Panda C3 Aircross VW Up! Smart Fortwo Ford Fiesta