Alternative Growth FuturesStudio

Alternative Growth FuturesStudio

University of Colorado at Denver

Sponsors:Custer Heritage Committee

San Isabel Foundation Sonoran Institute

Alternative Growth Futures Studio

Alternative Growth Futures Studio

The following is a presentation of a growthmodeling study on Custer County, Colorado.The study: Explores historical growth trends. Presents methods for analyzing growth pressures. Models growth based on statistical analysis. Presents alternative visions for future growth. Graphically displays specific growth scenarios utilizing GIS

(Geographic Information Systems).

Alternative Growth Futures Studio

Alternative Growth Futures Studio

Project: explore alternative development scenarios for Custer County

Model: create and analyze digital maps of growth options

Custer CountyThe past…Custer CountyThe past…

In 1870, Custer County had almost no year round residents.

By 1893, over 9,000 people called Custer County their home.

It will happen again ...

Custer CountySince 1990…Custer CountySince 1990…

The county’s population has more than doubled.

88% of all privately held land has been sold.

45% of land buyers purchased 35+ acre parcels.

Over 12,000 acres have been developed.

Custer CountyThe future…Custer CountyThe future…

By the year 2025:

– Population is likely to increase to 8,147

– 4,122 new homes are likely to be built

– The county will be more urban than it is today. There will be a stoplight!

Alternative Growth FuturesObjectivesAlternative Growth FuturesObjectives

To present methods for analyzing growth and development pressures.

To define alternative visions for future development within the county.

To make forecasting tools available to the county.

Alternative Growth FuturesAssumptionsAlternative Growth FuturesAssumptions

The year 2025: Population (currently 3,760 residents) will increase to

8,147 residents There will be 4,122 new households 7,047 of all residents (86%) will live in unincorporated

parts of the county

Statistical ModelStatistical Model

Evaluates historical patterns of development Ranks all parcels according to development

probabilities Projects growth into the future based on

scenarios Basis for policy simulation

Alternative Growth FuturesScenariosAlternative Growth FuturesScenarios Four development scenarios describe anticipated growth

to the year 2025:

– Historical Patterns– Open Space and Agricultural Protection– Cluster – Current Market Trends

ALL SCENARIOS ASSUME THE SAME NUMBER OF NEW HOUSEHOLDS.

Alternative Growth FuturesScenariosAlternative Growth FuturesScenarios

Historical Patterns

13 ac/ du None

Open Space and Agricultural Protection

13 ac/ du Yes

Cluster High Yes

Current Market Trends

35 ac/ du None

Scenarios Density Resource Protection

Historical Patterns ScenarioHistorical Patterns Scenario

Averages historical development patterns across the county

Ranks parcels according to probability of development

Open Space and Agricultural Protection Scenario

Open Space and Agricultural Protection Scenario Development locations constrained by resource values Resource values defined by agricultural lands, natural habitat and water availability

Agriculture Habitat WaterHayfields T&E Habitat YieldRangeland Game Habitat DepthLow Slopes Rare Plants

Cluster ScenarioCluster Scenario

Increases density of new development

Constrains location of growth by resource protection

Cluster Development Cluster Development

A well-planned cluster development concentrates development in suitable areas of a subdivision while preserving surrounding lands with highest resource value.

Cluster DevelopmentCluster Development

Effects of Cluster DevelopmentEffects of Cluster Development

Site Acreage

(AC)Roads (AC)

Developed area (AC)

Open space (AC)

Total dwelling

units35 acre 1695 32.89 1695 0 4010 acre 1695 17.17 400 1288 401 acre 1695 6.77 40 1648 400.25 1695 1.81 10 1683 40

Density Options for a 40-Unit Subdivision

Effects of Cluster DevelopmentEffects of Cluster Development

Development Option (ac)

Number of People

Number of Dwelling Units

Developed Site Acreage Roads (ac)

35 acre 4500 2250 78,750 1850 acre1 acre 4500 2250 2250 3810.25 4500 2250 563 102

Density Options Countywide

Cluster DevelopmentCluster Development

Potential to: Accommodate projected future population Decrease infrastructure requirements. Preserve ranchland and open space.

Current Market Trends ScenarioCurrent Market Trends Scenario

Captures current market preference for larger lot development.

Average density of 35 acres / dwelling unit. Assumes zoning change to permit PUDs

Impacts to Local ResourcesImpacts to Local Resources

Acreage lost to development (based on Current Market Trends Scenario):

Resource Acreage LostHayfields 29,873Rangeland 93,632T&E Species Habitat 17,635Game Species Habitat 10,601

Current Development: 3-D Flythrough of Custer County

Current Development: 3-D Flythrough of Custer County

Current Market Trends Scenario: 3-D Flythrough of Custer County

Current Market Trends Scenario: 3-D Flythrough of Custer County

Alternative Growth FuturesSummaryAlternative Growth FuturesSummary Most of the private land in the county will be

developed by 2025 under current market trends

Current land markets favor development outside of towns at very low density (average lot sizes of between 15 and 40 acres)

Alternative Growth FuturesSummaryAlternative Growth FuturesSummary

It may be impossible to sustain a viable ranching economy in the county without strengthening zoning protections.

Higher density development permits the county to absorb the same number of homes while protecting natural resources.

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