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R. Lilieholm, M. Johnson, S. Meyer, R. Boone, R. Reid, J. Worden, D. Nkedianye, M. Said,
S. Kifugo, D. Kaelo & J. Stabach
University of Nairobi, Kenya March 14, 2014
Spatially explicit models that depict future landscapes under various land use policies & “drivers of change” –
From this…
To this…
Anticipates future landscape conditions by modeling a wide range of alternative scenarios
• Socio-demographic • Economic • Biophysical
Baker et al. 2005
2014
Understanding how today’s
decisions affect tomorrow’s outcomes…
Basic & applied research on biophysical & socioeconomic
systems dynamics
Willamette River Basin (Baker et al. 2004)
Urbanization...
Urbanization
Mining…
Urbanization
Mining
Deforestation, Fencing & Agriculture…
Urbanization
Mining
Deforestation, Fencing & Agriculture
Climate Change…
How will future development & climate change affect the sustainability of pastoralists, wildlife & historic migration patterns?
How will future development & climate change affect the sustainability of pastoralists, wildlife & historic migration patterns?
Nairobi National Park
Masai Mara National Reserve
Amboseli National Park
Map from Reid et al. 2008
Map from Reid et al. 2008
Map from Reid et al. 2008
Map from Reid et al. 2008
2 3
4
5
1
Ecotourism pressures (New lodges & increased visitation)
Deforestation
Fencing
Ecotourism pressures (New lodges &
increased visitation)
Agricultural development
Understanding how today’s decisions affect tomorrow’s outcomes…
Modeling wildebeest migration behavior using:
Hourly GPS tracking
Agent-based models
Modeling wildebeest migration behavior using:
Hourly GPS tracking
Agent-based models
Modeling alternative future development scenarios using:
Remote sensing
Logistic regression
Bayesian Belief Networks
Modeling wildebeest migration behavior using:
Hourly GPS tracking
Agent-based models
Modeling wildebeest migration behavior using:
Hourly GPS tracking
Agent-based models
Modeling alternative future development scenarios using:
Remote sensing
Logistic regression
Bayesian Belief Networks
Landsat Thematic Mapper October 17, 1988
Landsat Thematic Mapper August 19, 2010
SPOT October 13, 2010 Land Cover
SPOT 2010 Land Cover with Fencing Locations
Landsat Thematic Mapper October 17, 1988
SPOT 2010 Land Cover with Fencing Locations
2010
2040
Isinya
Isinya
Isinya
Isinya
Isinya
Kitengela 2003
Kitengela 2013
Isinya
Tuala 2002
Tuala 2013
By modeling how wildebeest migrate across the landscape, we can begin to understand how wildlife will react to changing human & natural
systems…
• Develop a range of alternative futures
• Develop a range of alternative futures • Engage stakeholders in model exploration
• Develop a range of alternative futures • Engage stakeholders in model exploration • Identify areas for critical needs
• Develop a range of alternative futures • Engage stakeholders in model exploration • Identify areas for critical needs • Anticipate future conflicts
And how can we achieve it?
Our research is supported by: NSF grant DEB-0919383
The Maine Sustainability Solutions Initiative (SSI) (NSF grant EPS-0904155 )
CSU NREL & CCC
International Livestock Research Research Institute (ILRI)
Kenya Wildlife Service
African Conservation Centre
www.mainelandusefutures.org
Asante sana!
