ALTERNATIVE PATHWAYS FOR DOUBLING RENEWABLE ENERGY

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Renewable energy is a dynamic field with flexible options and permutations. Policy makers should be prepared to adapt to changes and recognise new opportunities, such as those that might emerge from a greater focus on renewables for electrification. For example, even if bioenergy is deployed at a lower rate than forecast in REmap 2030, a doubling of the renewable energy share can still be achieved through greater electrification in buildings, transport and industry.

IRENA explored an electrification-focused alternative to rapid biofuel growth, dubbed ‘REmap-E’. In this sce-nario, the contribution of renewable power to total renewable energy use would rise from 35% to 50%, while the share of biomass drops to 42% instead of 60%.

REmap-E posits business-as-usual in biomass for industry and transport (Reference Case), and a decline in demand for biomass in buildings and power generation. Heat pumps replace biomass in buildings and industry, and transport undergoes a modal shift: in which electric trams, buses and trains replace liquid biofuels. Overall demand for bioenergy increases to 65 EJ instead of 108 EJ in 2030.

Additional solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind power (both onshore and offshore) capacity would be needed to meet increased electricity demand in end-use sectors, and electricity-intensive industries – such as primary aluminium smelters, electric arc furnaces and chlor-alkali plants – would need to move to locations with ample renewable energy supply. REmap-E envisages a decrease in the share of biomass for heating and cooking.

An electrification-focused approach to doubling renewable energy would require an increase in total global in-stalled renewable power capacity of 60% above REmap 2030 levels, from 5 000 GW to as much as 8 000 GW. Much higher penetration of renewables would need to be integrated into the energy system, which could present a challenge.

IRENA considered another path to doubling renewable energy, REmap-U, in which all countries reach at least a 30% renewable energy share by 2030, regardless of where they stand today.This would require some countries (the United Arab Emirates) to substantially increase their renewable energy shares from today’s very low levels, while others (Brazil, Denmark, Germany) could meet or surpass this level under business-as-usual.

Under REmap-U, energy demand would be reduced by implementing energy efficiency measures. Potential would vary depending on a country’s growth in energy consumption, and its current energy intensity. For rapidly growing countries, a total energy-saving potential of up to 10% more than business as usual is required.

The involves greater electrification in countries which do not achieve 30% through REmap Options and energy efficiency improvements. These electrification technologies are the same as those used in REmap-E, with the exception of industry relocation, which is not considered.

Finally, if a country has not yet reached a 30% renewable energy share, the last option is to make more use of biomass imported from countries which have already achieved their 30% share. This requires international trade of even higher volumes of biomass.

While some countries will easily reach renewable energy shares higher than 30% by 2030, others will need to make enormous effort to achieve this target.Figure 1 compares the renewable energy share of REmap countries under REmap-E (orange bars) and REmap-U (purple orange bars) with REmap 2030 (green bars) and business-as-usual (red bars). Under REmap-U, all countries reach at least a 30% renewable energy share. Denmark, Brazil, Germany, Canada and several other countries reach even higher shares, as their Reference Case is already above 30%. As a result, the global renewable energy share in REmap-U reaches 32% even before energy access needs are considered.

ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES: ELECTRIFICATION (REmap-E), AND UNIFORM TARGETS (REmap-U)

www.irena.org

ALTERNATIVE PATHWAYS FOR DOUBLING RENEWABLE ENERGY

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The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) is an intergovernmental organisat ion promoting the widespread and increased adoption and sus tainable use of al l forms of renewable energy wor ldwide, including bioenergy, geothermal energy, hydropower, ocean energy, wind energy and solar energy.

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Some countries need to make an enormous effort compared to their current levels and even beyond their na-tional plans – such as Russia, South Korea and Saudi Arabia.

Doubling the share of renewable energy through electrification (REmap-E) or a uniform target for all countries (REmap-U) are estimated to be USD 145-185 billion higher than in REmap 2030.

In REmap-E, the substitution cost of a modal shift in transport, and the relocation of industry, would be much higher than biomass-based technologies. Achieving modal shift in transport would also require the develop-ment of new vehicles and infrastructure. The cost of biofuels and heat pumps are comparable.

REmap-U would entail higher costs due to modal shifts and, more importantly, costs related to increasing the international trade in biomass.

Overview of REmap 2030, REmap-E and REmap-U Worldwide

REmap 2030 REmap-E REmap-UTotal biomass demand (EJ/yr) 108 65 108International biomass trade (EJ/yr) 25-40 5-15 35-50Hydro (GW) 1 600 1 640 1 600Wind onshore/offshore (GW) 1 635 1 900-2 400 1 650-1 800Solar PV (GW) 1 250 2 500-3 600 1 600-1 900CSP (GW) 83 290 83Biomass power (GW) 390 125 390Renewable energy share in TFEC (%) 30% 30% 32%Substitution costs (USD/GJ) 2.5 5-12 3-10Net incremental system costs (bln USD/yr) 133 205-500 180-600

For more details, please visit www.irena.org/remap.

Figure 1: Renewable energy shares by country in the Reference Case, REmap 2030, REmap-E and REmap-U

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