Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 4-1-AQIM-11

CdW Intelligence to Rent -2016- In Confidence [email protected]

Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 4-1-AQIM-11

In The "War of the Cross, we need a Strategy."They say those who forget history are doomed to repeat it again

The terrorists from Daesh group and al-Qaeda are trying to merge their forces in Northern Africa to launch a major offensive, the CEO of Spain’s major private intelligence and security firm AICS told Sputnik Jan 2016

Emir of al-Shabab Ahmed Omar, He wants the Kenya-Somalia border to be redrawn, with Kenya ceding its Somali region to Mogadishu. He also wants all non-Muslims out of northern Kenya. Every blow, big or small, is amplified and Omar wants to drive his demands home.

It was February 2014, and the current Emir of al-Shabab Ahmed Omar, also known as Abu Ubaydah, was visiting the farming town of Bulo Mareer to settle a bloody dispute between clans in the lower Shabelle region. Omar's star was rising as the group's leader was busy playing hide-and-seek with American drones and planes. The trusted lieutenant ran the day-to-day affairs of the al-Qaeda-affiliated group. Over the years, Omar proved his efficiency and loyalty to the cause, endearing him to the group's feared leader.In his first six months in charge, more Kenyans died in al-Shabab attacks than during Godane's three-and-half-year reign. Unlike Godane, who only called for Kenyan troops to withdraw from Somalia, Omar is known for having bigger war plans and political appetites.

He wants the Kenya-Somalia border to be redrawn, with Kenya ceding its Somali region to Mogadishu. He also wants all non-Muslims out of northern Kenya.

Despite Kenya's government brushing off his demands, many non-Somali Kenyans who have long worked in the country's north have heard Omar's call loud and clear. They have packed up and left.

Long-marginalised, northern Kenya lags far behind the rest of the country and its youth - poor and unemployed - are Omar's next target.

Alongside the promise of paradise and beautiful wives, Omar is willing to offer competitive salaries in return for waging war in Kenya - not in Somalia. Omar's latest venture, the El-Ade base attack, is possibly the worst military disaster Kenya has faced since independence in 1963. He knows Kenyans, exhausted by the continuous corruption scandals of their elite, are growing war weary. Every blow, big or small, is amplified and Omar wants to drive his demands home.

Jan 22, Up to 20 people were killed when al-Shabab suicide bombers and gunmen attacked a seafront hotel and restaurant in the heart of the Somali capital. A car packed with explosives rammed into the Beach View Hotel on Lido beach in Mogadishu on Thursday evening, after which several al-Shabab fighters opened fire at the hotel, witnesses told Al Jazeera. At least six people - and eight attackers - were killed, the intelligence agency told Al Jazeera. Other reports, citing police and officials, said up to 20 people may have been killed in total. A second explosion hit the nearby Lido Seafood restaurant, where several gunmen were reportedly holed up.

Shabaab, al Qaeda’s branch in East Africa, has released several photos showing the “Know your enemy and know yourself and you can fight a hundred battles without disaster”

― Sun Tzu, The Art of WarCdW Intelligence to Rent Page 1 of 7 03/05/2023

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aftermath of last week’s attack on an African Union base in southern Somalia. The photos add credence to the jihadist group’s claim of a high

body count.In the assault last week, Shabaab said its “Saleh al Nabhani Battalion” launched an attack on the base, which hosted Kenyan troops. The coordinated assault began with a suicide bombing, followed by an assault team breaching the perimeter of the base. The strike left at least 60 Kenyan soldiers dead, but Shabaab later claimed killing 100 and the actual number is unknown. In the photos released by the jihadist group, over 65 bodies are shown strewn across the perimeter of the base. LWJ

The African Union Mission in Somalia “can confirm that there was an attack on our troops

in El-Adde” and more details will be released later, it said on Friday, January15, via its Twitter account. Spokesman for the Kenya defence forces, David Obonyo said the militants attacked a Somali National army camp close to a Kenya defence forces camp at 4am on Friday. The number of casualties is unknown, he said. In the attack on Janaale, the group claimed to have killed 80 African Union soldiers. Authorities said at the time it was verifying the number of casualties. The African Union Mission in Somalia (Amisom) is estimated to have lost at least 1100 troops since 2009. C: how the Islamic army gets its hardware

In Friday’s 13 Jan raid, Abu Musab said the militants detonated a vehicle laden with explosives at the fence of the base in El-Adde and fired rocket-propelled grenades at the troops inside. Equipment and ammunition were seized in the raid. The battle lasted for about three hours as Kenya defence forces troops tried to repel the attack, before the base

“Know your enemy and know yourself and you can fight a hundred battles without disaster”― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

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was overrun, Mohamed Isaq, a resident of El-Adde, said by phone from the town.

An attack by al-Qaeda militants at a hotel in the West African nation of Burkina Faso left at least 26 people dead and highlighted the militants’ shift to striking capital cities in the region.Burkina Faso’s military rescued at least 156 hostages from Ouagadougou’s Splendid Hotel, which is popular with foreigners, on Saturday, while 56 people were injured, Prime Minister Paul Kaba Thieba told reporters. It was the second attack claimed by al-Qaeda since gunmen took more than 100 people hostage in November at the Radisson Blu hotel in the capital of neighboring Mali, killing dozens. An attack by al-Qaeda militants at a hotel in the West African nation of Burkina Faso left at least 26 people dead and highlighted the militants’ shift to striking capital cities in the region.Burkina Faso’s military rescued at least 156 hostages from Ouagadougou’s Splendid Hotel, which is popular with foreigners, on Saturday, while 56 people were injured, Prime Minister Paul Kaba Thieba told reporters. It was the second attack claimed by al-Qaeda since gunmen took more than 100 people hostage in November at the Radisson Blu hotel in the capital of neighboring Mali, killing dozens.

Jan 16, In a new video purportedly released by the Islamic State, ISIS militants in “Wilayat al-Barqah,” Libya are shown taking on opposition forces. Wilayat al-Barqah is one of three Islamic State “wilayats,” or “provinces,” announced in Libya on November 13, 2014, along with Wilayat al-Tarabulus and Wilayat al-Fizan. Wilayat al-Barqah contains the city of Benghazi, the site of the September 11, 2012 attack on an American compound that left U.S. Ambassador J. Christopher Stevens and U.S. Foreign Service Information Management Officer Sean Smith dead. In the video, the battle front between ISIS and opposition forces in Libya is shown. The Islamic State has been ramping up its interest in the African nation, which is a cause for concern due to its proximity to Europe. In fact, The New York Times reports that ISIS intends to make Sirte, a Mediterranean city in Libya, a back-up capital for the Islamic State in case Raqqa, Syria falls to the coalition.

Jan 16, A new video, supposedly released by the Islamic State, is urging their 'Somalian brothers' to leave al-Shabaab and join ISIS instead .The video is titled 'A message to our brothers in Somalia', with the scripted speech relayed by both an English fighter and another Somali speaker. The English speaking fighter, known only as Saif al-deen al-Somaal, urges Somalis to join the small ISIS franchise in Somalia, mainly made up of rebellious al-Shabaab fighters.

'O mujahideen (jihadis) in Somalia, o mujahideen who give bayah (allegiance) to the caliphate. Congratulations. We love you for the sake of Allah.' 'We call upon you to be steadfast, to be firm, to always be strong and know that Allah is with you. 'To the mujahideens in al-Shabaab, we call upon you to put aside your pride and arrogance and your blind following of your leaders who lack wisdom,' he says.

He then threatens al-Shabaab fighters, asking them what they will say on the day of judgement when questioned by Allah. 'Fear Allah in dealing with the Muslims. Fear Allah for spilling the blood of the Muslims who have given Bayah (allegiance). 'Remember that fathers fought against the Crusaders. You are in the same ranks as the Crusaders, killing mujahideen who have given bayah. Fear Allah for spilling the blood of Muslims for it is the greatest injustice,' he claims. A small group of al-Shabaab fighters released a propaganda video several months ago, declaring they had defected to ISIS. The al-Qaeda





affiliated group al-Shabaab reacted aggressively, hunting down the ISIS dissenters in a series of ambushes and attacks. Despite ISIS's territorial gains

in Iraq, Syria and parts of Afghanistan and Libya, it holds no real territory in Somalia. It remains keen to expand in the Horn of Africa, looking to form a new franchise, made up of rebellious fighters formerly with al-Shabaab. It is not the first time ISIS have released propaganda videos showing African fighters calling for jihadis to turn their back on al-Shabaab and join ISIS. The jihadi group have previously tried to encourage al-Shabaab fighters to turn against al-Qaeda and join ISIS with videos of Somali fighters in Syria and Iraq. C Comment, ISIS calling first to joint and than threatening if not, dos not reflect strength its desperate weakness.

25 Jan Libya parliament rejects UN-backed unity governmentTobruk-based parliament votes against unity government with rivals in Tripoli, and demands cabinet reshuffle.25 Jan 2016 Libya's internationally recognised parliament based in Tobruk has voted against the UN-backed unity government with rival authorities based in Tripoli, Libyan news agencies reported. House of Representatives member Abu Bakr Beira said 89 out of 104 members who attended Monday's session rejected the cabinet formed by the UN-sponsored unity Presidential Council (PC).He said the council would be dissolved if it failed to meet a 10-day deadline to form a new, smaller cabinet. The unity government, which was announced on January 19, aimed at bridging a political divide that has undermined the fight against armed groups.Libya currently has two rival administrations and parliaments; the internationally recognised authorities based in Tobruk and a rebel-backed authority holding power in the capital, Tripoli.The Tobruk parliament also approved the Skhirat agreement as a political deal provided that article number 8 - related to sovereign posts in the government, including military occupations - is deleted, giving the presidential council ten days to reshuffle the cabinet or replace the PC with another.The Skhirat agreement was signed on December 17, 2015 in Skhirat, Morocco. The agreement was meant to lead to the establishment of a single Government of National Accord (GNA) and national institutions that will ensure broad representation.The agreement calls for a 17-member cabinet, headed by businessman Fayez el-Sarraj as prime minister, based in the Libyan capital. Under the agreement, a nine-member PC was named and tasked with selecting the national unity government. However, the Tobruk parliament called for the boycotting of two PC members, Ali al-Gotrani and Omar al-Aswad. It suggests that they resume their positions once article 8 is deleted.Al-Gotrani and al-Aswad suspended their membership from the PC of the UN-imposed government over demands and selection of cabinet members.Many members of Libya's competing parliaments did not back the agreement, and critics say that the plan does not evenly represent all the country's groups and factions.Some critics cite reports that the UN representative who helped broker the agreement, Bernardino Leon, was secretly negotiating a high-paying job with the United Arab Emirates, which backs the Tobruk parliament.Since the 2011 overthrow and killing of longtime dictator Muammar Gaddafi, Libya has slid into chaos.

Jan 2016, Even as Islamic State (ISIS) is suffering greater losses in Syria and Iraq it is increasing the pace of its attacks worldwide in a troubling trend, according to a top US





general.General Lloyd Austin, head of the Central Command (CENTCOM)

overseeing Middle East operations, Claimed ISIS attacks this week in Istanbul and Jakarta are signs the group is

weakening, reports AFP on Friday. “ISIL has assumed a defensive posture in Iraq and Syria,” Austin said at a news

conference in Florida, using an alternate acronym for the jihadist group. Even as Islamic State (ISIS) is suffering greater losses in Syria and Iraq it is increasing the pace of its attacks worldwide in a troubling trend, according to a top US general.

21 Jan At least six people - and eight attackers - were killed when al-Shabab suicide bombers and gunmen attacked a seafront hotel and restaurant in the Somali capital, the intelligence agency said. A car laden with explosives rammed into the Beach View Hotel on Lido beach on Thursday evening, after which several al-Shabab fighters opened fire at the hotel, witnesses told Al Jazeera. "After the blast, I saw at least four armed men run into the hotel, shooting everyone inside and around the hotel," Mustafa Elmi, a Lido beach visitor, told DPA news agency. "I managed to escape with minor wounds, but there were people who were shot dead on the spot," he added.Locals said the death toll was likely to rise because some families had earlier collected bodies for burial. A second explosion hit the nearby Lido Seafood restaurant, where several gunmen were reportedly holed up. "The lights at Lido Seafood have just been switched off. Heavy gunfire is now ongoing," Abdirizak Mohamud, a freelance journalist at the scene, told Al Jazeera. "More and more security forces are now going into the restaurant. They have pulled out three injured people so far," Mohamud added.

Regards Cees***

Al Qaeda's attack on Burkina Faso proves that "decapitating" a terror group doesn't always change it for the better.Three years ago this month, a previously unknown Islamist group, the Mourabitoun, launched an unprecedented attack on a natural gas facility near the eastern Algerian town of In Amenas. But after its dramatic opening salvo, the group went strangely quiet. Some argued the In Amenas attack was as irreproducible as it was unprecedented — and those voices gained strength after Mokhtar Belmokhtar, the Mourabitoun’s leader and founder, was reported to have been killed by a U.S. drone strike last summer.The doubters have now been quieted. After three years of inactivity, the Mourabitoun has abruptly reappeared. The Jan. 15 attack on a restaurant and hotel in Ouagadougou, the capital of Burkina Faso, which left at least 28 people dead, was the second deadly incident involving Belmokhtar’s group in less than two months. The first, some 500 miles away in neighboring Mali on Nov. 20, was a joint operation with al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). It involved three assailants, armed with AK-47s and grenades, who rampaged through the Radisson Blu hotel in downtown Bamako, sparking an hours-long siege during which 27 people were killed. It remains unclear whether the assailants were trained and equipped by AQIM or by the Mourabitoun — or even whether the distinction is still valid.But the Bamako and Ouagadougou attacks, though nearly identical, represent a marked departure from the In Amenas attack. The differences underscore how much the Mourabitoun’s capabilities, tactics, strategy, and even its geographical focus have shifted over the last 36 months. They also offer plenty of reasons to reconsider the





strategy, developed by proponents of the U.S. drone war, of neutralizing terrorist groups by “decapitating” their leaders.

The most obvious difference between the earlier and later attacks is simple geography. To the extent that the Mourabitoun had a traditional safe haven, it was on the border of Algeria, in northwestern Mali. That’s more than 700 miles from both Ouagadougou and Bamako, the capitals of Mali and Burkina Faso, where the group now seems to have put down roots. Those two states are significantly weaker and less stable than Algeria, which has the largest military in Africa. That fact helps explain another significant difference: Unlike Algeria, both Mali and Burkina Faso host significant numbers of U.S. and French troops battling jihadi groups across the Sahel and Sahara.The most recent attacks also reveal that the Mourabitoun has begun selecting different kinds of targets and has adjusted its tactics accordingly. The In Amenas facility was highly secure, with perimeter fencing and a dedicated company of Algerian gendarmes (not to mention the Algerian military patrolling the surrounding desert). Breaching it required a hardened team of 30 terrorists laden with assault rifles, rocket-propelled grenades, and explosives. The hotels in Bamako and Ouagadougou, by contrast, had only minimal security measures and could be successfully attacked with only a handful of lightly armed assailants.

Why did the Mourabitoun undergo this dramatic shift from North Africa to the Sahel, from stable states to fragile ones, from hard targets to soft ones, and from complex to simple attacks? The answer lies in Belmokhtar’s leadership — and now, the lack thereof.Belmokhtar had been a smuggler and small-time AQIM commander in the deserts of Mali since 2007, but he was not considered a major international threat until after the spectacular In Amenas attack. He founded his own group, the Mourabitoun, in 2012 after clashing with AQIM leader Abdelmalek Droukdel over the group’s tactics and onerous bureaucratic procedures. But while he broke with AQIM, he nonetheless declared his continued allegiance to al Qaeda’s central command in Pakistan.But Belmokhtar’s leadership was always erratic, and his ideological commitments uncertain. He swung freely between waging ideological warfare in northern Mali and running a baldly criminal organization involved in smuggling cigarettes and other illicit goods. The In Amenas attack he planned was a case in point: It’s not clear whether the attackers were hoping to take hostages for ransom or destroy the gas facility and undermine the country’s hydrocarbon-based economy. Either way, the attack was a tactical failure. Of the 32 attackers, 29 were killed and three were captured (Belmokhtar was not killed or captured, since he was not on-site to see his plan go into action). No ransoms were paid, and the facility — while damaged — was not destroyed. It is still operating today.

The attack seemed designed to achieve only one thing: to catapult Belmokhtar and his new group onto the international stage and signal that he was still allied with al Qaeda, just not with AQIM. What better way to do so than to launch the first large-scale attack on a hydrocarbon installation in North Africa?But just when the Mourabitoun had announced itself as a new and potent threat, the group went underground. Maybe Belmokhtar was hiding from the stepped-up manhunt and was unable to plan further attacks. Maybe the group’s morale was suffering after it took 29 casualties at In Amenas and Belmokhtar was struggling to recruit new followers. Or maybe the Mourabitoun had used up most of its arsenal and needed time to rearm. Whatever the reason, after its inaugural attack, the Mourabitoun disappeared from the limelight.





Then in June 2015, Belmokhtar was targeted in a U.S. drone strike in northern Libya. He was rumored to have been in the region to broker a

rapprochement between competing jihadi groups, some of which were allied with al Qaeda and some of which supported the Islamic State. If true, this would have been yet another example of Belmokhtar’s pushing the jihadi envelope, alone and without the support of his superiors. But the terrorist leader is thought to have died in the strike, and there have been no communiqués from him since, whether in writing, audio, or video. Yet the Mourabitoun has never officially acknowledged Belmokhtar’s death (though an al Qaeda communiqué may have inadvertently referred to it), and rumors persist that he is still alive.If in fact Belmokhtar died in the strike, his group has lived on without him. But it has also changed in important ways. Five months and some 2,100 miles away from the site of the drone strike that reportedly killed its leader, the group announced a rapprochement of sorts with AQIM. In a statement claiming the Bamako attack, Droukdel claimed that the Mourabitoun had rejoined AQIM. The AQIM leader made no mention of Belmokhtar, which suggests two, not mutually exclusive, possibilities: that the two terrorist leaders have resolved their differences and buried the hatchet or that Belmokhtar is in fact dead. The Ouagadougou attack, which was also claimed by both groups, provides additional evidence for the rapprochement, though a subsequent communiqué no longer mentions the Mourabitoun by name, suggesting that the group may be in the process of reintegrating into AQIM, from whence it came.Assuming Belmokhtar is dead, what the case of the Mourabitoun demonstrates is that leadership decapitation does not necessarily result in the demise — or even the weakening — of a terrorist group. Rather, it can precipitate the group’s evolution in unexpected ways. Belmokhtar’s elimination may have inadvertently paved the way for the Mourabitoun’s return to the AQIM fold and facilitated the consolidation of al Qaeda-allied jihadi groups in North Africa and the Sahel. Fighting under the more risk-averse al Qaeda leadership, former Mourabitoun terrorists are carrying out less ambitious — but ultimately deadlier — attacks on targets that are more permissive and more easily linked to the jihadi narrative. As a result, AQIM may now be able to sustain a faster tempo of attacks than it could when Droukdel and Belmokhtar were at odds. This does not augur well for safety and security in the Sahel. Nor does it bode well for America’s ongoing drone war.




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Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 4-1-AQIM-11