Agri Commodity Reports for the Week (27th - 31st December - 2010)

8/8/2019 Agri Commodity Reports for the Week (27th - 31st December - 2010)

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WEEKLYREPORTS

Global Research Limited

Where Market Can MoveNext Week...

A G R I

Spices Gain onShort Covering !

| 27th Dec 2010 - 01st Jan 2011

Spices Gain onShort Covering !


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Technical Analysis

JEERA

Fundamental Overview

Reasons for MovementJEERA TRADES UP ON REDUCED ARRIVALS

hort coverings by the market participants led prices to end

positively at end of the week. Dull demand from the overseas and

Sdomestic will keep prices range bound with negative bias in the

coming weeks. Any disturbances in weather in Jeera growing areas

particularly Gujarat and Rajasthan will however provide support to the

prices in the short term. Too much cold and rains in the growing areas

will spoil the standing crop. In medium to long term (January onwards),

Jeera prices will depend on the demand from the overseas and

domestic buyers and sowing progress in the major Jeera growing areas

particularly Rajasthan and Gujarat. Jeera prices will also take cues from

the price parity of major origins particularly Syria and Turkey in the

international market. In the short term (till December), trend will depend

on Jeera price parity of various origins in international market and

stocks of Jeera with local stockists. In the medium to long term

(January onwards) prices are likely to take cues from sowing progress

in India and demand from the overseas and domestic buyers.ember

2010 against $2.93 per kg quoted in the same period last year.

Daily Chart

Weekly Pivots

Script Levels

R3 14752

R2 14368R1 14178

PP 13984

S1 13794

S2 13600

S3 13216Figure:1

Jeera

Demand from the overseasSowing progress in India

Jeera remained in consolidation forthe entire previous week and was

neither sustaining at higher levels norat lower and we saw good sellingpressure above the level of 14000.For the next week Jeera hasresistance at 14330 and support at13700.

Market Overview

Jeera is in a consolidation phaseand one should use the strategy of

selling on higher levels. If in thecoming week Jeera sustains belowthe level of 13700 then we canexpect the level of 13500, and if itsustains above 14330 we can seethe level of 14540.

Strategy

7th Dec 2010- 01st Jan 2011


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GUARSEED

3

Technical Analysis


Reasons for MovementGUAR DECLINES ON INCREASED ARRIVALS

rawling demand from the overseas for Guar and its products at

higher levels and improved arrivals weighed on the prices yesterday.

CFurther, increase in the arrivals will cap resist prices from trading

higher. Arrivals, which stands at around 125-130 lakh bags in the current

season is much higher as compared to last year. Exports of Guar and its by

product which stood at around 2.10 lakh tonnes during the previous year is

expected to rise in the current fiscal to around 2.6-2.8 lakh tonnes. A

reviving world economy and a preference shift to eco-friendly substitutes

has seen a surge in demand for Indian Guar gum from oil and gas

companies that could push exports up 22 percent in 2010/11. Spread

between January and February contract is Rs.43/qtl as compared to

Rs.40/qtl the previous day. In the intraday Guar prices are expected to

trade bearish due to improved arrivals and weak demand for Guar and its

products. However, in the short term (1-2 week), prices may be determined

by the arrivals in the domestic market. In the medium term trend would

depend on the pace of arrivals, the demand from the overseas markets andthe movement of Indian Rupee against US dollar.

Daily Chart

Weekly Pivots

Script Levels

R3 2818

R2 2642

R1 2561

PP 2466

S1 2385

S2 2290

S3 2114Figure:1

Jeera

Higher ArrivalsSluggish demand

Last week Guarseed was initiallybullish for the first three days but inthe later part of the week we sawprofit booking coming at higherlevels. For the next week resistancein Guar seed is found at 2625 andsupport at 2365.

Market Overview

For next week in Guar seed tradersshould go for buying at lower levelsstrategy, if Guar seed sustainsabove the level of 2625 we can seethe level of 2675, and below 2365 itcan touch the level of 2320.

Strategy

7th Dec 2010- 01st Jan 2011


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SOYABEAN

4

Technical Analysis


Reasons for MovementSOYBEAN ZOOMS ON GLOBAL CUES

CDEX January Soybean futures closed higher on 3rd

consecutive day, tracking firm global cues on concern of dry

Nweather in Argentina and strike at Soybean plants in Argentinaa l s o a d d e d b u l l i s h m a r k e t s e n t i m e n t s .CBOT March Soybean futures ended higher at $ 13.60/bushels on

Thursday, up 20 cents/bushel as compared to previous close.

CBOT March Soybean meal futures ended at $ 363.40/ton on

Thursday, up $7/tonnes as compared to previous close. Spread

between NCDEX January and February contract is Rs 65.00 against

previous day of Rs 63.50 per 100 Kg. For Intraday, Soybean prices are

expected to trade slightly higher on improved demand from solvent

extractors and lower production estimates in Argentina as dry weather

concern also in favour of bulls.Supply Demand Estimates reportscheduled for release at 7 PM IST.

Daily Chart

Weekly Pivots

Script Levels

R3 2398

R2 2330

R1 2294

PP 2262

S1 2226

S2 2194

S3 2126Figure:1

Jeera

Improved demandL o w e r p r o d u c t i o nestimates

Last week Soybean was in adownward consolidation phase andwas not sustaining at higher levelsbut we saw some short coveringcoming on the last day of the week.For the next week Soybean hasresistance at 2365 and support at2195.

Market Overview

Soybean is in a consolidation phaseon charts and one should look forselling opportunities at higherlevels, if Soybean sustains belowthe level of 2195 we can see thelevel of 2150, and on the up side if itsustains above the level of 2365 wecan see Soybean at 2400 level.

Strategy

7th Dec 2010- 01st Jan 2011


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CHANA

5

Technical Analysis


CHANA TUMBLES ON SUBDUED DEMAND

ong liquidation by the market participants led prices to end

negatively yesterday. Revival of demand from the local stockists

Land reports of crop damage in A.P and Karnataka may provide

support to the prices in the short term. However, positive reports on

sowing progress will cap the upside. Steep decline in Australia chick

pea production has delayed the shipments thereby supporting Chana

prices at the domestic market. Given the current scenario, overall

acreage is still expected higher due to increased MSP and better soil

moisture level. Thus long term trend would depend on the weather

conditions and thereby the production estimates. Spread between

January and February contract is Rs.14/qtl as compared to Rs.1/qtl

yesterday. In the intraday prices may trade with positive bias due to

demand from the local stockists. In the short to medium term (one

month), Price gains may be capped due to rising arrivals of Kharif

pulses. Long term trend in Chana futures may depend on the reports

sowing of Rabi Pulses which is presently expected to be higher due to

increase in MSP of Pulse. Also, weather during the crop development

period may be crucial for the deciding the further trend of Chana

futures.

Daily Chart

Last week in Chana we saw buyingcoming at lower levels in the initialstages of the week but good profitbooking was seen on Saturday and iterased most of the previous gains.For the coming week Chana hasresistance at 2595 and support at2500.

Market Overview

Overall trend of Chana is ofconsolidation and one should go forselling at higher levels strategy in it.For the coming week if Chanasustains below 2500 level we cansee it at 2465 and above 2595 wecan expect the level of 2620.

Strategy

Reasons for Movement

Weekly Pivots

Script Levels

R3 2655

R2 2598

R1 2563

PP 2541

S1 2506

S2 2484

S3 2427Figure:1

Jeera

Positive reports on sowingprogress

Revival of demand

7th Dec 2010- 01st Jan 2011


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Symbol Exch-ange

ExpiryDate

CommodityName

Price Unit PreviousClose

Open LowHigh Close Qty.Traded

Net OpenInterest

WeeklyTurnOver(Rs. in Lakhs)

JEERAUNJHA NCDEX 20-JAN-11 JEERA RS/QUINTAL 14000 14034 1377014235 14030 23070 30 11511 35,306.69

Weekly Market Update

PPRMLGKOC NCDEX 20-JAN-11 PEPPER RS/QUINTAL 22158 22130 2136022192 22025 31595 -133 10837 56,519.45

TMCFGRNZM NCDEX 20-Apr- 11 TURMERIC RS/QUINTAL 9946 9920 992010840 10610 24025 664 5450 18,650.71

GARSEDJDR NCDEX 20-JAN-11 GUARSEED RS/QUINTAL 2480 2467 23812503 2415 844420 -65 168190 151,997.43

GARGUMJDR NCDEX 20-JAN-11 GUARGUM RS/QUINTAL 6419 6381 61306470 6225 66505 16590-194 31,966.17

CHARJDDEL NCDEX 20-JAN-11 CHANA RS/QUINTAL 2532 2528 25132590 2525 395730 -7 111330 82,133.72

SYBEANIDR NCDEX 20-JAN-11 SOYBEAN RS/QUINTAL 2256.5 2260 22382319 2311 379610 54.5 166850 67,909.75

SYOREFIDR NCDEX 20-JAN-11 SOY OILREFINED

RS/10KGS 595 594 590.2608.9 607.9 442150 12.9 123550 253,253.14

RMSEEDJPR NCDEX 20-JAN-11 RAPE MUS-TARD SEED

RS/20KGS 563.15 563 557568 567.7 258380 4.55 122160 54,414.93

COCUDAKL NCDEX 20-JAN-11 COTTONSEEDOILCAKE

RS/QUINTAL 1013 1014 9981026 1001 201240 -12 80290 16,214.48

GURCHMUZR NCDEX 20-JAN-11 GUR RS/40KGS 979 982 977.51002 998 34470 19 11350 6,723.20

POTATO NCDEX 18- Mar -11 POTATO RS/QUINTAL 577.6 581 576.6621.2 613.9 60705 36.3 22005 1,828.01

KAPASSRNR NCDEX 29-Apr- 11 KAPAS RS./20KG 715.9 719 717745.5 730.1 20897 14.2 6288 27,476.43

WHTSMQDELI NCDEX 20-JAN-11 WHEAT RS/QUINTAL 1311.6 1312 13121334 1332.4 14330 20.8 9690 1,625.34

MENTHA OIL MCX 31-DEC-10 MENTHA OIL RS/KG 1079.9 1084.9 1076.21142.5 1116.2 29634 36.3 3537 116937.21

CARDAMOM MCX 15- Jan -11 CARDAMOM RS/KG 1380.2 1384.9 13701547 1525 14336 144.8 1436 20821.22

7th Dec 2010- 01st Jan 2011

*

* Turnover till Thursday


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Weekly Market Update

EXCHANGE COMMODITY CLOSING PRICE % CHANGE

NCDEX JEERA

NCDEX PEPPER

NCDEX TURMERIC

NCDEX GUARSEED

NCDEX GUARGUM

NCDEX CHANA

NCDEX SOYBEAN

NCDEX SOY OIL REFINED

NCDEX RAPE MUSTARD SEED

NCDEX COTTONSEED OILCAKE

NCDEX GUR

NCDEX POTATO

NCDEX KAPAS

NCDEX WHEAT

NCDEX MENTHA OIL

NCDEX CARDAMOM

14030

22025

10610

2415

6225

2525

2311

607.9

567.7

1001

998

613.9

730.1

1332.4

1116.2

1525

0.21

-0.60

6.68

-2.62

-3.02

-0.28

2.42

2.17

0.81

-1.18

1.94

6.28

1.98

1.59

3.36

10.49

Weekly Gainers

COMMODITY EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE % CHANGE

CARDAMOM

TURMERIC

POTATO

15-MAR-11

20-APR- 11

18-MAR-11

1525

10610

613.9

10.49

6.68

6.28

Weekly Losers

COMMODITY EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE % CHANGE

GUARGUM

GUARSEED

20-JAN-11

20-JAN-11

6225

2415

-3.02

-2.62

COTTON SEED OIL CAKE 20-JAN-11 1001 -1.18

7th Dec 2010- 01st Jan 2011


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Weekly Pivots

JEERA(JAN)

Scripts R3

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R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

PEPPER(JAN)

TURMERIC(APR)

GUARSEED(JAN)

GUARSGUM(JAN)

CHANA(JAN)

SOYBEAN(JAN)

REFINED SOYA OIL(JAN)

MUSTARD(JAN)

COTTONSEEDOIL CAKE (JAN)

GUR(JAN)

POTATO(MAR)

KAPAS

(APR)

MENTHA OIL(DEC)

CARDAMOM(JAN)

14941.67 14476.67 14253.33 14011.67 13788.33 13546.67 13081.67

23523.00 22691.00 22358.00 21859.00 21526.00 21027.00 20195.00

12296.67 11376.67 10993.33 10456.67 10073.33 9536.67 8616.67

2918.00 2696.00 2548.00 2474.00 2326.00 2252.00 2030.00

6955.00 6615.00 6420.00 6275.00 6080.00 5935.00 5595.00

2696.67 2619.67 2572.33 2542.67 2495.33 2465.67 2388.67

2451.33 2370.33 2340.67 2289.33 2259.67 2208.33 2127.33

639.73 621.03 614.47 602.33 595.77 583.63 564.93

586.23 575.23 571.47 564.23 560.47 553.23 542.23

1064.33 1036.33 1018.67 1008.33 990.67 980.33 952.33

1041.50 1017.00 1007.50 992.50 983.00 968.00 943.50

693.10 648.50 631.20 603.90 586.60 559.30 514.70

787.87 759.37 744.73 730.87 716.23 702.37 673.87

1244.23 1177.93 1147.07 1111.63 1080.77 1045.33 979.03

1834.67 1657.67 1591.33 1480.67 1414.33 1303.67 1126.67

7th Dec 2010- 01st Jan 2011


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RULES

7th Dec 2010- 01st Jan 2011


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Documents

Agri Commodity Reports for the Week (27th - 31st December - 2010)