AfDB Work programme in NATIONAL ACCOUNTS 9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011

AfDB Work programme in

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011

African Development Bank Group Statistics Department, ESTA

Adalbert NshimyumuremyiChief Statistician, ESTA.2


I. Historical background: From 2005 ICP-Africa … to … AGNA

II. ICP Sustainability in Africa: One of the pillars of 2008 SNA Implementation Strategy in Africa

III. 2011 ICP Round National Accounts Activities

IV. Way Forward: Provide TA to Countries and coordinate 2008 SNA Implementation Strategy in Africa

Outline


From

2005 ICP-Africa….

to

…. AGNA


Overview of the International Comparison Program (ICP)


Purpose

Approach

Generate Purchasing Power Parities (PPP) for cross country comparisons of GDP and related aggregates

Collection of prices for well-defined basket of goods & services

Compilation of harmonized National Accounts (GDP breakdown according to basic headings)

Use of internationally accepted statistical methods and processes

2005 ICP-Africa Challenges


In 2003, an assessment of 49 countries statistical systems allowed to identify challenges for the implementation of ICP 2005 in Africa.

Different level of statistical development in National accounts and price statistics at country level:

-Lack of qualified staff-Lack of equipment-Lack of financial resources-Few of countries implementing the 1993 SNA

2005 ICP-Africa Challenges(Cont’d)


Hence a sound regional program was design with following objectives:

Overall Objective: Determination of PPPs to facilitate cross-country comparisons of GDP expenditures and meet the demand for reliable and timely data

Specific Objective 1: Strengthen national statistical capacity in price and national accounts

Specific Objective 2: Make ICP an integral part of national statistical systems

Specific Objective 3: Facilitate cross-country comparisons of price levels, and economic aggregates in real terms


Help countries produce required expenditure weight data

•Assess country capacity•Develop a general framework•Step-by-step guidelines

Increased reliability of national accounts

•Consistency with official estimates•Great detail of expenditures•200 basic categories

Broad base partnership

•Country level•Sub-regional & regional support•International partnership

Long-term quality improvement objectives

•Meta data questionnaire;•Exchange of best practices;•Participatory process

ICP-Africa:

A Capacity Building Exercise

AfDB contributionto ICP-Africa 2005


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Financial Contributions

Millions US $ 1 28.17 3.48 1 0.1 0.665 3

ACBFADB

Group

African Countrie

s

DFID-UK

India JapanWorld Bank

Historical ICP Participation (Global & Africa: 1970-2005)


1016

34

60 64

117

147

1 1 415

23 22

48

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1970 1973 1975 1980 1985 1993 2005

Total Countries

African Countries

ICP-Africa 2005 Objectives relating to GDP expenditures estimates


Produce GDP estimates broken down by broad expenditure categories over the past 10 years;

Have GDP expenditure broken down by 200 basic headings for the reference year 2005;

Strengthen capacity to allow for mainstreaming ICP activities into the regular activities of the National Statistical Offices (NSO) and the curricula of statistical training centers.

Relevant activities were carried out or initiated in compliance with the 1993 SNA framework.

2005 ICP-Africa contribution to 1993 SNA Implementation in Africa


Independent Evaluation of 2005 ICP-Africa: to evaluate the performance of the program against the goals, objectives and targets set

Before ICP During ICP After ICP

Our country meets UN Minimum Requirements related to the implementation of the 1993 SNA

68% 91% 91%

The production boundary has been revised in compliance with the 1993 SNA

60% 81% 86%

GDP related tables and accounts are compiled using 1993 SNA requirements on supply and use tables

37% 70% 71%

Our methodologies for GDP computation comply with international standards and norms

77% 91% 96%

Our methods to analyze benchmark survey data are consistent with the 1993 SNA requirements

68% 83% 88%

Our country has shifted from 1968 SNA to 1993 SNA 60% 80% 83%

Our country includes GDP breakdown into detailed expenditure categories, in the publication of national accounts

21% 45% 68%

From 2005 ICP-Africa …

to … AGNA


Success of 2005 ICP-Africa

Round

2008 Accra Resolution on ICP Africa:-ICP Sustanabiliy: Mainstreaming ICP in NSO work program-AfDB to lead the ICP-Africa process towards Computation of PPP on annual basis starting from 2009

AGNA Meetings

- AGNA 1: Lusaka, 07-11 April 2008- AGNA 2: Tunis, 02-04 July 2008- AGNA 3: Durban, 12-13 August 2008- AGNA 4: Addis-Ababa, 21-23 October 2009- AGNA 5: Dakar, 20-22 November 2009- AGNA 6: East London, 7-12 December 2009- STATCOM-Africa II, January 2010- AGNA 8: Yaoundé, 13-15 December 2010- AGNA 9: Addis-Ababa, 11-15 April 2011


ICP Sustainability in Africa through 2008 SNA Implementation Strategy


2009 & 2010 ICP- Africa Exercises


• Challenges: Compute PPPs on yearly basis (ICP sustainability)

• Reduced ICP ressources provided to countries

• Inclusion of the price component of ICP-Africa within the NSOs’ routine price activities. Having an intersection with a good number of CPI products is one of the conditions of ICP-Africa sustainability since it allows countries to optimize their resources in undetaking both activities

• Change in ICP teams in countries (retrain NSO staff)• Detailed GDP breackdown series (2005-2009)• PPP computation for 2009 underway – First results espected in

September 2011• Price data collected for ICP 2010 exercise & GDP breackdown for

2010 under preparation

Adopting SUT for ICP: Objectives & Strategy

To ensure consistency and comparability of GDP Expenditures and detailed expenditure weights for ICP-Africa PPP compilation needs


• A framework has been designed in 2004 for ICP 2005 but was not properly implemented• Implementation of SUT compilation by phases• Developed prototype supply and use matrix (nxm) • Conduct of data review workshops• Provision of technical advice countries• Constant monitoring of the status of compilation

Objectives

Strategy

ICP-Africa & 2008 SNA Implementation Strategy


Line 2. Strengthening ICP-Africa assets in the field of National Accounts work

Strategic Objective 2.1: Increasing the ability of African countries to master ICP-Africa, so as to make itthe basis for routine national accounts work

2.1.1. Integration of the GDP breakdown into the 1993 SNA national accounts routine work2.1.2. Publication and popularization of the GDP breakdown methodology2.1.3. Development and publication of an African annual report on GDP breakdown into basic headings2.1.4. Technical Assistance to ICP-Africa non participants countries2.1.5. Assistance to fragile States and small island developing countries

ICP-Africa & 2008 SNA Implementation Strategy


Line 2. Strengthening ICP-Africa assets in the field of National Accounts work

Strategic Objective 2.2: Developing an African System for the annual production of macro-economic aggregates andPrice statistics for the calculation of purchasing power parities

2.2.1. Elaboration of product lists for each Regional Economic Community (REC)2.2.2. Enhance the validation of GDP expenditures and national accounts for each REC member countries2.2.3. Compute, on an yearly basis, purchasing power parities for each REC and at the regional level


2011 ICP Round

National Accounts Activities


National accounts Framework for the 2011 ICP


The purpose of the Framework is to ensure optimal consistency between ICP surveys and processing and the System of National Accounts

Therefore, national accountants will work together with price statisticians to cross check their respective products and prices

20

2010

Major aggregates for latest year possible JJ

2011 20132012

NN

BH details for final cons. aggregates for latest year possible

Values for all BHs NN

JJ

JJ NN

Preliminary data for 2010

JJ

Major aggregates for 2011

BH values for 2011

JJ OO MM

JJ

JJ OO MM

M= May; J= July; O= October; N=November M= May; J= July; O= October; N=November

ICP 2011 National Accounts Global Timetable

ICP 2011 National Accounts Global Timetable - Milestones

DATE / MILESTONE ACTIVITY / OUTPUTSJuly 2010

Major aggregates for 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009Basic heading details for final consumption aggregates (for 2008 or the latest possible year)

November 2010

Major aggregates (revised) for 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009Values for all basic headings for 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009

July 2011

Major aggregates (revised data for 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009), preliminary data for 2010All basic headings for 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 (preliminary)

July 2012 – preliminary data for 2011 for initial results for 2011

Major aggregates for 2011All basic headings for 2011 (best possible estimate)

October 2012 – data for preliminary ICP results

Major aggregates for 2011 (any revisions since July 2012)All basic headings for 2011 (any revisions since July 2012)

December 2012 Data review workshop in each region to consider the full set of ICP results based on the semi-final national accounts data

May 2013 – final data for published ICP results

Major aggregates for 2011 (any revisions since October 2012)All basic headings for 2011 (any revisions since October 2012)

October 2013 2011 ICP results released

ICP 2011 National Accounts Timetable - Workshops (Cont’d)

DATE VENUE WORKSHOP

14-25 June 2010

Nairobi, Kenya

1st ICP 2011 Regional Workshop: 2009 GDP Breakdown, Validation & 2011 GDP Breakdown guidelines

30 August-3September 2010

Hammamet, Tunisia

2nd ICP 2011 Regional Workshop: 2009 GDP Breakdown, Validation & 2011 GDP Breakdown guidelines

9-12 May 2011

Tunis, Tunisia

5 National Accounts Sub-Regional Workshops (AMU, COMESA, ECCAS, ECOWAS, SADC): Preliminary data for 2010

13-17 June 2011 Accra, Ghana or Rabat, Morocco

3rd ICP 2011 Regional Workshop: 2010 GDP Breakdown: Preliminary data 2010, SUT approach, Specific Surveys

November 2011 Dakar, Senegal

4th ICP 2011 Regional Workshop: 2010 GDP Breakdown: Revised data & ICP 2011 Specific Surveys data validation

ICP 2011 National Accounts Timetable - Workshops (Cont’d)

DATE VENUE WORKSHOP

April 2012 TBD by REC/SRO 5 National Accounts Sub-Regional Workshops (AMU, COMESA, ECCAS, ECOWAS, SADC): Preliminary data for 2011 & ICP 2011 Specific Surveys data validation

June 2012 Marakesh, Morocco 5th ICP 2011 Regional Workshop: 2011 GDP Breakdown: Preliminary data

September 2012 TBD by REC/SRO 5 National Accounts Sub-Regional Workshops (AMU, COMESA, ECCAS, ECOWAS, SADC): Revised data for 2011 & ICP 2012 Specific Surveys data validation

December 2012 Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire

6th ICP 2011 Regional Workshop: 2011 GDP Breakdown: Revised data

February 2013 TBD by REC/SRO 5 National Accounts Sub-Regional Workshops (AMU, COMESA, ECCAS, ECOWAS, SADC): Preliminary data for 2012 & ICP 2011 Final Results

May 2013 Yaoundé, Cameroon

7th ICP 2011 Regional Workshop: 2011 GDP Breakdown: Final data & Preliminary data for 2012

August 2013 TBD by REC/SRO 5 National Accounts Sub-Regional Workshops (AMU, COMESA, ECCAS, ECOWAS, SADC): Revised data for 2012 & ICP 2013 Specific Surveys data validation

October 2013 Kigali, Rwanda 8th ICP 2011 Regional Workshop: 2012 GDP Breakdown: Final data & ICP 2013 Specific Surveys data validation


The Way Forward


The Way Forward


Implementation of ICP-Africa

Programme

Provide Technical Assistance to

Countries

Contribute to 2008 SNA

Implementation Strategy Coordination

in Africa


Asante Choukran…

Merci…Thank you…

Documents

AfDB Work programme in NATIONAL ACCOUNTS 9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011