Adult Social Care Workforce in Greater Manchester...Adult social care workforce Recruitment and retention – Turnover by job role Registered nurses and care workers had higher turnover

Adult Social Care Workforce in Greater Manchester

Workforce estimates of turnover, vacancies and source of recruitment

Career progression

Factors affecting turnover

Prepared by Skills for Care Workforce Intelligence Analysis Team

For more information please contact;

Email: [email protected]

Telephone: 0113 245 1716

Web: www.skillsforcare.org.uk/nmds-sc

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.skillsforcare.org.uk/nmds-sc



Adult social care workforce Clinical Commissioning Group and local authority areas

© Crown copyright

Clinical commissioning groups and local

authority areas across Greater Manchester

share the same boundaries, except for

Tameside and Glossop CCG.

The information in this document refers to

the clinical commissioning group unless

otherwise stated.

Adult social care workforce Estimated number of jobs

Skills for Care estimate there were

around 1.58 million adult social care

jobs in England in 2016. This includes 145,000 personal assistants employed by

individuals employing their own staff via direct payments

and around 90,000 social care jobs in the NHS.

There were around 64,000 adult social

care jobs in Greater Manchester, of

which 56,000 were in local authority and

independent sectors. The remainder of

this presentation focusses on the

56,000 local authority and independent

sector jobs.

Table 1. Estimated adult social care jobs by sector

Source. Workforce estimates 2017

* Estimate refers to local authority area only.

Total jobs

Local

authority Independent

Direct

payments* NHS

England 1,580,000 109,300 1,230,000 145,000 90,000

North West 214,000 18,500 161,000 22,000 12,500

Greater Manchester 64,000 6,100 50,000 7,800 -

Bolton 6,500 700 4,600 1,200 -

Bury 5,300 500 4,200 550 -

Manchester 10,500 1,300 8,400 850 -

Oldham 6,500 225 4,900 1,300 -

Rochdale 5,300 350 4,600 350 -

Salford 5,100 125 4,400 600 -

Stockport 6,800 600 5,500 650 -

Tameside and Glossop 4,800 700 3,600 425 -

Trafford 5,400 375 4,800 225 -

Wigan 8,000 1,100 5,300 1,600 -

Adult social care workforce Recruitment and retention – Turnover by CCG Area

Turnover rate by Clinical Commissioning Group Area

In Greater Manchester, Trafford had the highest

turnover rate at 36.1% (equal to around 1,700 leavers)

and Tameside and Glossop had the lowest at 18.4%

(equal to around 750 leavers).

Across Greater Manchester, around 24.3% of directly employed staff left their role in the previous 12

months. Equal to around 12,500 leavers over the period.

This rate was lower than the North West region

(25.6%) and across England (27.8%).

Source. NMDS-SC Workforce estimates 2017

1. Wigan Borough, 2. Bolton, 3. Bury, 4. Heywood, Middleton

and Rochdale, 5. Oldham, 6. Salford, 7. Manchester, 8.

Tameside and Glossop, 9. Trafford, 10. Stockport

Adult social care workforce Recruitment and retention – Turnover by job role

Registered nurses and care workers had higher turnover rates compared to other job roles. The turnover rate for

both of these roles was also lower in GM than across the North West (2.8% and 2.1% lower respectively).

Chart 1. Turnover by job role

Source. NMDS-SC raw data March 2017 to March 2018

27

.8%

23

.0%

14

.9%

14

.5%

32

.1%

17

.5%

33

.8%

25

.6%

25

.0%

15

.4%

17

.2%

33

.5%

16

.2%

30

.4%

24

.3%

24

.9%

12

.8%

20

.0%

30

.7%

19

.0%

28

.3%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

All job roles Registered manager Social worker Occupationaltherapist

Registered nurse Senior care worker Care worker

England North West Greater Manchester

Turnover rates were generally lower in Greater Manchester than both the wider North West region and England.

Adult social care workforce Recruitment and retention – Turnover by job group and service

Turnover varies by both job group and the service provided.

Turnover was highest for direct care roles (26.9%), which was

also the case across the region and England

Chart 2. Turnover in Greater Manchester by job group

and service


Domiciliary care providers, which are known to have

proportionally more direct care roles in their organisation

structure, also showed high turnover.

24.3% 10.6% 23.5% 26.9% 20.3% 0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

All job roles Managerial Regulatedprofession

Direct care Other

24.3% 24.1% 14.7% 27.0% 17.3% 0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

All services Adultresidential

Adult daycare

Adultdomiciliary

Adultcommunity

care

Adult social care workforce Recruitment and retention – Length of service

The relatively low turnover rates in Greater Manchester are also reflected in the length of service.

Chart 3. Average length of service in role by job group


4.2 7.3 4.5 3.6 5.0 4.6 8.0 4.9 4.0 5.6 4.9 8.5 5.5 4.2 6.1 0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0


Direct care Other


Across all job groups, workers in Greater Manchester had a longer average length of service. Most

notably in regulated professions.

The average length of time in role

was 4.9 years in Greater

Manchester.

Adult social care workforce Recruitment and retention – Turnover vs job density

Job density refers to the ratio of ‘all jobs in an area to the population aged 16 to 64 in that area*’ (i.e

high job density means there are a high number of jobs in the area relative to the population).

Adult social care turnover rates were generally lower in areas where job density was low.

Chart 4. ASC workforce turnover vs job density

Source. Workforce estimates 2017, ONS © Crown copyright

4.

6. 5.

10.

3.

7.

8.

1.

9.

2

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2

AS

C tu

rno

ve

r

Jobs density (higher = more employment)

1. Tameside and Glossop

2. Wigan borough

3. Oldham

4. Bolton

5. Heywood, Middleton and Rochdale

6. Bury

7. Salford

8. Stockport

9. Trafford

10. Manchester

* Job density provided by ONS as at 2016.

Adult social care workforce Recruitment and retention – Turnover vs age group

By tracking an anonymous unique identifier for care workers in the NMDS-SC, we can compare

those that leave adult social care to those that stay.

Younger workers were more likely to leave the sector. The turnover rate falls as the age of the

workforce increases, until age groups 55 and above when workers approach the traditional retirement age.

Chart 5. Turnover by age group


35.2%

20.9%

35.8%

20.2%

31.8%

21.2%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

Under 25 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65+


Adult social care workforce Recruitment and retention – Turnover vs pay

The turnover rate decreases as average hourly rate increases.

Pay rates above, but close to the national living wage (NLW)*, showed little effect on turnover. Turnover

begins to decrease substantially at hourly rates above £8.10.

Chart 6. Turnover by average pay bands

Source. NMDS-SC raw data March 2017 to March 2018 *NLW at the time of data capture was £7.20

25.5% 23.8%

26.4%

14.9%

23.4%

12.3%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

£7.20 andbelow

£7.21 to£7.50

£7.51 to£7.80

£7.81 to£8.10

£8.11 to£8.40

£8.41 andabove


Adult social care workforce Recruitment and retention – Turnover vs zero-hours contract

Care workers on zero-hours contracts were more likely to leave.

In Greater Manchester, 33.6% of workers on a zero-hours contract left within the following year, compared

to 18.7% of those not on a zero-hours contract.

Chart 7. Turnover by zero-hours contract


28.2

%

31.4

%

33.6

%

23.1

%

22.2

%

18.7

%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%


Zero-hours contract Non zero-hours contract

Adult social care workforce Recruitment and retention – Turnover vs managerial post

Turnover was lower in regulated locations with a registered manager in post

The difference in care worker turnover between regulated locations with a registered manager in post and

those with a vacancy was greater in Greater Manchester than either the North West or England as a whole.

Chart 8. Turnover by registered manager vacancy


26.3

%

31.7

%

34.7

%

25.2

%

25.4

%

24.1

%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%


Vacant RM position RM in post

Adult social care workforce Recruitment and retention – Turnover vs qualifications

Care workers with a qualification relevant to social care were less likely to leave.

Turnover was 13.5% lower for care with a relevant social care qualification in Greater Manchester.

Chart 9. Turnover by qualifications held


19.4

%

22.1

%

20.6

%

28.3

%

30.6

%

34.1

%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%


ASC relevant qualification held

No ASC relevant qualifications

Adult social care workforce Recruitment and retention – Turnover vs length of service

Care workers were most likely to leave within their first year in role.

A third of care workers with less than a year of experience their role had left within the following year (33.6%).

After five years in role, the turnover dropped to almost half of this rate.

Chart 10. Turnover by length of time in role

Source. NMDS-SC raw data March 2017 to March 2018 3

2.9

%

24.5

%

19.8

%

17.2

%

15.1

% 10.9

%

11.7

%

33.3

%

26.5

%

21.4

%

18.1

%

15.0

% 10.5

%

10.0

%

33.6

%

25.8

%

24.5

%

16.0

% 1

1.8

%

11.1

%

8.3

%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%L

ess th

an

1 y

ear

1 to

2 y

ea

rs

3 to 4

years

5 to

6 y

ea

rs

7 to

9 y

ea

rs

10 to

19 y

ears

20 y

ears

or

mo

re

Less th

an

1 y

ear

1 to

2 y

ea

rs

3 to

4 y

ea

rs

5 to

6 y

ea

rs

7 to

9 y

ea

rs

10 to

19 y

ears

20 y

ears

or

mo

re

Less th

an

1 y

ear

1 to

2 y

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rs

3 to

4 y

ea

rs

5 to

6 y

ea

rs

7 to

9 y

ea

rs

10 to

19 y

ears

20 y

ears

or

mo

re


Adult social care workforce Recruitment and retention – Source of recruitment

Not all turnover results in workers leaving the sector, the

majority of recruitment is from within adult social care.

This churn within the sector means the skills and knowledge

are retained within the sector.

Chart 14. Recruitment from within adult social care


Heywood, Middleton and Rochdale showed the

greatest proportion of recruitment from within

adult social care (72%), whereas Oldham showed

the least (47%).

1. Wigan Borough, 2. Bolton, 3. Bury, 4. Heywood, Middleton

and Rochdale, 5. Oldham, 6. Salford, 7. Manchester, 8.

Tameside and Glossop, 9. Trafford, 10. Stockport

Adult social care workforce Recruitment and retention – Vacancy rates

Vacancy rate by Clinical Commissioning Group Area


Across England, the vacancy rate was estimated at 6.6%. This was equivalent to around 90,000

vacancies at any given time.

The vacancy rate was lower in the North West region (6.0%) and lower still across Greater Manchester

(5.0%).

In Greater Manchester, Bury had the highest

vacancy rate at 8.1% (equal to around 400

vacancies) and Tameside and Glossop had

the lowest at 2.2% (equal to around 90

vacancies).

1. Wigan Borough

2. Bolton

3. Bury

4. Heywood, Middleton

and Rochdale

5. Oldham

6. Salford

7. Manchester


9. Trafford

10. Stockport


Chart 11. Vacancy rate vs jobs density

Source. Workforce estimates 2017, ONS © Crown copyright

5.

6.

2.

9. 4.

8.

7.

1.

10.

3.

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2

AS

C v

aca

ncy r

ate

Jobs density (higher = more employment)

1. Bolton

2. Heywood, Middleton and Rochdale

3. Wigan borough

4. Oldham


6. Bury

7. Stockport

8. Salford

9. Manchester

10. Trafford

Where jobs density was high, the vacancy rate was also high.

This could indicate that in areas where there is more competition from other

employers; social care vacancies are harder to fill.


Chart 12. Vacancy rate by job group


The vacancy rate varied by both job group and the service

provided.

Regulated professions (social workers, registered nurses)

had the highest vacancy rate in Greater Manchester (9.6%).

Domiciliary care providers (9.6%) had the highest vacancy

rates across England, although in Greater Manchester

community care services were the highest (7.5%)

Number of vacancies by job group:

All job roles – 2,700

Managers – 175

Regulated professions – 275

Direct care – 2,000

Other - 300

5.0%

3.3%

9.6% 5.1% 4.1% 0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%


Direct care Other

5.0% 3.8% 2.8% 6.0% 7.5% 0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

All services Adultresidential

Adult daycare

Adultdomiciliary

Adultcommunity

care


In Greater Manchester, social workers had the highest vacancy rate at 12.1%. Equivalent to 125

vacancies. Whereas occupational therapists had a relatively low vacancy rate.

Direct care roles also had relatively low vacancy rates in Greater Manchester.

Chart 13. Vacancy rate by job role


6.6

%

10

.0%

9.9

%

9.3

%

9.0

%

4.2

%

7.7

%

6.0

%

10

.0%

8.6

%

10

.0%

8.5

% 3

.6%

6.9

%

5.0

%

10

.2%

12

.1%

3.7

%

8.4

% 3

.1%

5.1

%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

All job roles Registered manager Social worker Occupationaltherapist

Registered nurse Senior care worker Care worker


Adult social care workforce Recruitment and retention – Career progression

The adjacent chart shows the range in salary

around the average for adult social care job

roles.

The arrows represent workers progressing

through roles as observed in the NMDS-SC over

time.

In practice there are many career paths that

people take in adult social care. This chart

represents the most common observed routes.

£10,000

£15,000

£20,000

£25,000

£30,000

£35,000

£40,000

£45,000

Ancillary

Care

worker

Senior care

worker/

supervisor

Other

managers

LA senior

manager

Registered

nurse

Key

Direct care roles

Regulated professional roles

Managerial roles

Ancillary

Registered

manager

Social

worker/

occupational

therapist

Documents

Adult Social Care Workforce in Greater Manchester...Adult social care workforce Recruitment and retention – Turnover by job role Registered nurses and care workers had higher turnover