2013: Issue 376, Week: 24th - 27th JuneA Weekly Update from SMC(For private circulation only)

WISE M NEY

Bra

nd

sm

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98

®

(Saurabh Jain)

Contents

Equity 4-7

Derivatives 8-9

Commodity 10-13

Currency 14

IPO 15

Fixed Deposit 16

Mutual Fund 17-18

EDITORIAL STAFF

Editor Saurabh Jain

Executive Editor Jagannadham Thunuguntla

+Editorial Team

Dr. R.P. Singh Nitin Murarka

Vandana Bharti Tejas Seth

Sandeep Joon Dinesh Joshi

Vineet Sood Shitij Gandhi

Dhirender Singh Bisht Subhranil Dey

Parminder Chauhan Ajay Lakra

Mudit Goyal

Content Editor Kamla Devi

Graphic Designer Pramod Chhimwal

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lobal stock markets remained in the grip of bear on the back of U.S. Federal

Reserve's indication of trimming bond purchases later this year and to end Gthem by around mid-2014 as it believes that the downside risks for the

economy have diminished. As regard to interest rates, Fed indicated that it would

not be hiked until 2015. Federal Reserve Balance sheet has swollen to a record $3.41

trillion as a result of bond purchases to tackle the crisis situation, and it would take

years for Fed to unwind the program.

Back at home, Indian Rupee nosedived after the U.S. Federal Reserve indication of

curbing bond purchases to a level nearly 60 to a dollar. Liquidity, the primary driver

of the rally in stock and bond markets, especially that of emerging markets got

affected and resulted in redemptions across the equity and debt markets. Putting

up things together, both redemptions by foreign institutions along with the

deceleration in rupee have once again put Indian economy on a back foot. Serious

concerns have risen as regard to financing of balance of payments together with rise

in inflation as a result of dearer imports.

The growth, which was earlier expected to gather some steams soon seem now to

have postponed for at least two-three quarters. Despite anchoring import of gold, it

seems that the government would not be able to take some serious measures before

going in for polling next year. Reserve Bank of India, which has always shown its

apprehensions for suppressed inflation and limited room for the relaxing interest

rates, has kept status-quo in the just concluded policy review meeting on 17th June.

Citing concerns for food inflation, RBI seemed to be very hawkish this time around

and also pointed for measures in case of adverse economic scenario.

On the commodities front, selling was witnessed in the bullion counter; its prices

may try to consolidate in near term with some short covering at lower levels. Heavy

liquidation in the SPDR gold trust fund is also the key factor for the sell off; investors

sold 355.50 tonnes this year from the SPDR Gold Trust, the largest bullion-backed

exchange traded product, erasing $32 billion from the fund's value. Meanwhile, the

recent fall in prices in gold will prop up physical buying especially in Asia. The

movement of dollar index will also be closely watched, which can recover towards

83 in near term. Crude oil counter can trade sideways with upside bias as investors

will closely watch the Middle East tensions and inventory position along with the

outcome of key economic indicators from the US and euro zone. In agro pack,

mustard seed is expected to remain on firm footing on weak arrivals and rise in

demand from consumers, retailers and wholesalers. Strong domestic and increasing

overseas inquiries can support the Jeera prices while higher than expected supplies

and rains can cap the gains.

From The Desk Of Editor

4

NOTES:

1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of "Morning Mantra ".

2) S1 & S2 indicate first support & second support respectively & R1 & R2 indicate first resistance and second resistance respectively.

3) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the stock. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.

TREND SHEET

Stocks Closing Trend Date Rate S1 R1 S2 R2 Cl.

Price Trend Trend S/l

Changed Changed

SENSEX 18719 DOWN 13.06.13 1827 19400 19700 19900

S&P NIFTY 5656 DOWN 13.06.13 5699 5900 5950 6020

CNX IT 6290 DOWN 17.04.13 6236 6550 6700 6850

CNX BANK 11375 DOWN 13.06.13 11687 12100 12400 12700

ACC 1178 DOWN 17.01.13 1359 1230 1260 1300

BHARTIAIRTEL 289 DOWN 13.06.13 288 300 310 320

BHEL 171 DOWN 01.11.12 227 190 195 205

CIPLA 379 DOWN 30.05.13 383 385 395 405

DLF 176 DOWN 21.03.13 239 195 205 210

HINDALCO 98 DOWN 13.06.13 97 103 105 108

ICICI BANK 1046 DOWN 13.06.13 1069 1110 1140 1160

INFOSYS 2369 DOWN 17.04.13 2284 2450 2550 2600

ITC 323 UP 04.03.11 172 315 305 300

L&T 1396 DOWN 23.05.13 1418 1460 1480 1500

MARUTI 1525 DOWN 13.06.13 1457 1530 1560 1600

NTPC 140 DOWN 20.06.13 140 149 154 158

ONGC 299 DOWN 13.06.13 309 320 325 330

RELIANCE 798 DOWN 28.02.13 814 830 850 860

TATASTEEL 273 DOWN 07.02.13 390 290 305 320

NEWS

EX DATE SYMBOL PURPOSE24-JUN-13 INDIANB DIVIDEND RS.6.60 PER SHARE24-JUN-13 ALSTOMT&D DIVIDEND RS 1.80/- PER SHARE25-JUN-13 BIRLACORPN DIVIDEND RS 4.50/- PER SHARE26-JUN-13 KTKBANK DIVIDEND RS.4/- PER SHARE27-JUN-13 TATAGLOBAL DIVIDEND RS 2.15/- PER SHARE27-JUN-13 HDFC DIVIDEND RS 12.50 PER EQUITY SHARE27-JUN-13 EXIDEIND FINAL DIVIDEND RE.0.60 PER SHARE27-JUN-13 SOBHA DIVIDEND RS 7 PER EQUITY SHARE27-JUN-13 WIPRO FINAL DIVIDEND RS.5 PER EQUITY SHARE28-JUN-13 ESSELPACK DIVIDEND - RE.0.75/- PER EQUITY SHARE2-JUL-13 GODREJPROP DIVIDEND - RS.4/- PER SHARE2-JUL-13 TATASPONGE FINAL DIVIDEND RS.8/- PER EQUITY SHARE2-JUL-13 SUNDARMFIN DIVIDEND RS 4.50 PER SHARE3-JUL-13 TTKPRESTIG DIVIDEND RS 17.50/- PER SHARE (BC END

DATE REVISED)4-JUL-13 KOTAKBANK DIVIDEND RE 0.70/- PER SHARE4-JUL-13 SASKEN DIVIDEND RS.4.50 PER SHARE4-JUL-13 CANBK DIVIDEND RS 13/- PER SHARE4-JUL-13 BAJAJ-AUTO DIVIDEND - RS.45/- PER EQUITY SHARE4-JUL-13 ASHOKLEY DIVIDEND - RE.0.60/- PER EQUITY SHARE4-JUL-13 M&MFIN DIVIDEND - FINAL RS.3.40 + SPECIAL RE.0.20

PER SHARE4-JUL-13 MASTEK DIVIDEND RS.3/- PER EQUITY SHARE4-JUL-13 KPIT DIVIDEND RE 0.90/- PER SHARE5-JUL-13 AXISBANK DIVIDEND RS.18/- PER EQUITY SHARE8-JUL-13 CENTURYTEX DIVIDEND RS.5.50 PER SHARE10-JUL-13 CESC DIVIDEND RS.7/- PER SHARE10-JUL-13 CAIRN FINAL DIVIDEND RS.6.50 PER EQUITY SHARE10-JUL-13 HINDUNILVR FINAL DIVIDEND RS.6/- PER EQUITY SHARE

FORTHCOMING EVENTS

DOMESTIC NEWS

Economy

• The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its June mid quarter monetary policy review kept the key interest rates unchanged citing elevated food inflation, rupee depreciation and uncertainty over foreign fund inflows. The repo rate at which the RBI lends to the system has been retained at 7.25%, while the cash reserve ratio will continue to be 4%.

Construction

• Pratibha industry has bagged a contract worth `128.07 crore awarded by Public Health Engineering Department at Jodhpur in Rajasthan. Contract awarded is Barmer- Rawastar – kharantiya drinking water supply project in Barmer District.

• Era Infra Engineering has bagged a contract from Delhi Metro Rail Corporation Ltd worth about ̀ 384 crore.

Power

• Adani Power, a subsidiary of Adani Enterprises, has commissioned the third 660 MW unit of its thermal power plant at Tiroda in Maharashtra. The Tiroda project will help Maharashtra meet its electricity demand.

Automobil

• Tata Motors has launched eight upgraded models of its different passenger vehicles, including the CNG version of its entry level small car Nano.

Pharmaceuticals

• Glenmark Pharmaceuticals has received US health regulator's approval to market Riluzole tablets, used in treating nervous system disorder, in the American market.

• Cipla Ltd has received approval from the authorities of South African and Botswana for the $512 million takeover offer to acquire Cipla Medpro.

Capital Goods

• Va Tech Wabag joint venture with Pratibha Industries has won an ̀ 262 crore order from Melamchi Water Supply Development Board Nepal.

• Siemens has received an order from National Thermal Power Corporation for the renovation and modernization of its Korba stage – II plant in Chhattisgarh.

Coffee

• Tata Coffee Limited commissioned its premium coffee extraction plant at Instant Coffee manufacturing facility at Theni in Tamil Nadu. The new extraction plant, set up with an investment of `80 crore, will help Tata Coffee position its Freeze dried coffee product at premium levels and increase its overall capacity by 30%.

Retail

• V-Mart Retail has opened a new store located at 3/2 Kishan Nagar chowk, Chakrata Road, Dehradun, Uttarakhand - 248001.

Information Technology

• Hinduja Global Solutions has made two significant additions to its senior management team of North America and one major addition to its global leadership team. This is in line with the organizations aggressive growth targets and increased focus on the United States and Canada.

Bank

• Dena Bank has chalked out a plan to expand its presence overseas. The bank is planning to open its branches in the US and African countries.

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

• US consumer price index inched up by 0.1 percent in May after falling by 0.4 percent in April and dipping by 0.2 percent in March. Economists had been expecting the index to edge up by 0.2 percent.

• US housing starts climbed 6.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 914,000 in May from the revised April estimate of 856,000. The increase in housing starts came following a 14.8 percent drop in the previous month.

• US existing home sales rose 4.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.18 million in May from 4.97 million in April. Economists had been expecting existing home sales to edge up to an annual rate of 5.0 million.

• U.K. retail sales volume including automotive fuel grew 2.1 percent in May from a month ago, when it was down 1.1 percent. It was stronger than the expected 0.8 percent increase.

®

5

BSE SENSEX GAINERS & LOSERS TOP (% Change) NSE NIFTY GAINERS TOP & LOSERS (% Change)

SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)

SMC Trend

SMC Trend

FMCGHealthcare

FTSE 100CAC 40

Auto BankRealty

Cap GoodsCons Durable

Oil & GasPower

NasdaqDow jonesS&P 500

NikkeiStrait times

Hang SengShanghai

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY (Equity) (` Crore)

ITMetal

Down SidewaysUp

SMC Trend

Nifty BSE Midcap Nifty JuniorSensex BSE Smallcap S&P CNX 500

GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)

INDIAN INDICES (% Change)

®

-0.80

-4.47

-2.70

-0.63

-1.31

-0.41

-1.11

-2.82

-2.45

-4.04

-4.75-5.00

-4.50

-4.00

-3.50

-3.00

-2.50

-2.00

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

Auto Index Bankex Cap Goods Index

Cons Durable Index

FMCG Index Healthcare Index

IT Index Metal Index Oil & Gas Index

Power Index Realty Index

-1.72

-2.07-2.37

2.59

-0.89

-2.80

-3.61

-2.36

-2.79

-4.00

-3.00

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

Nasdaq Comp. Dow Jones S&P 500 Nikkei Strait Times Hang Seng Shanghai Comp.

FTSE 100 CAC 40

3.07 2.90

1.57

0.710.32

-8.35-7.59

-5.79-5.07

-4.55

-10.00

-8.00

-6.00

-4.00

-2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

Bajaj Auto Wipro Sun Pharma.Inds.

Maruti Suzuki

Cipla Jindal Steel NTPC Hindalco Inds.

ICICI Bank Dr Reddy's Labs

3.34 3.16

1.66

0.730.32

-9.18 -8.98-8.72

-7.76 -7.53

-10.00

-8.00

-6.00

-4.00

-2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

Ambuja Cem. Bajaj Auto Sun Pharma.Inds.

Maruti Suzuki

Cipla Ranbaxy Labs.

Bank of Baroda

Jindal Steel NTPC DLF

-309.90

-562.40

-458.80

66.30

25.40

52.8022.00

-600.00

-500.00

-400.00

-300.00

-200.00

-100.00

0.00

100.00

Friday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday

FII Activity MF Activity

-2.63

-2.34

-1.06

-0.60

-0.33

-2.13

-3.00

-2.50

-2.00

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

Nifty Sensex BSE Midcap BSE Smallcap

Nifty Junior S&P CNX 500

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1 year.

Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis

6

®

Face Value ( ) 10.00

52 Week High/Low 550.00 / 306.00

M.Cap (` Cr.) 15881.55

EPS (`) 64.83

P/E Ratio (times) 5.53

P/B Ratio (times) 0.70

Stock Exchange BSE

`

VALUE PARAMETERS

% OF SHARE HOLDING

CANARA BANK LIMITED CMP: 358.50 Upside: 15.03%Target Price: 412

Investment Rationale crore in Q3FY2013 and ̀ 1120 crore in Q4FY2012.•Global business of the bank grew by 7% YoY •Outstanding restructured advance book widened

rebounding 10% on QoQ to Rs 598033 crore at the to Rs 18113 crore at the end of March 2013 from end March 2013. Advances increased 4% YoY at Rs 14501.4 crore at the end of December 2012. About 242177 crore, while deposits increased by 9% YoY Rs 2213 crore of restructured assets have slipped to Rs 355856 crore at the end March 2013. Bank to NPA category at end March 2013. aims to reach an aggregate business figure of •Capital adequacy ratio stood at 12. 4% with Tier-I more than `7 lakh crore, with approximate of 9.77% at the end March 2013 as compared to deposit growth of 15% and strong advances growth 13.76% with Tier-I of 10.35% at end of March 2012. of 24% in FY2014. The provision coverage ratio stood at 61.35% at

•The bank has reduced the high cost bulk deposit end March 2013 as compared to 67.6% at the end and certificate of deposits share in total deposits March 2012.from 45% at the end March 2012 to 29% at the end ValuationDecember 2012 and further down to 20% at end The bank is focusing on improving its CASA ratio and March 2013. It proposes to reduce the bulk deposit reduce bulk deposit share going forward which would share to 10-15% in FY2014. result into better NIM. Additionally it is targeting

•It has added 128 domestic branches, taking the robust advance growth indicating sustainable total tally under the branch network to 3728 business growth in the time ahead. We expect the including 5 overseas branches. It added 668 ATMs stock to see a price target of `412 in one year time during the year ended March 2013, taking the frame on a target P/B of 0.70x and FY14 (E) book total number of ATMs to 3525 as at March 2013. value per share of ̀ 589.14.Moreover it plans to take the number of branches to 5000 branches and number of ATMs from 10000 by March 2015.

•It is focusing on CASA, retail lending, fee income growth and recovery to improve the performance in FY2014. CASA ratio stood at 25.12% at the end March 2013.

•The %GNPA as well as %NNPA improved sharply by 20 bps to 2.57% and 17 bps to 2.18% during the quarter ended March 2013. It plans to bring down Gross NPA ratio below 2% and Net NPA ratio to approximate 1% in FY2014.

•The fresh slippages were relatively lower at `1086 crore in Q4FY2013 as compared to Rs 1314

` in cr

Particular Mar 2013 Mar 2014 Mar 2015

Net Total Income 11,032.00 12,377.69 14,234.44

EBIT 5,890.01 6,335.41 7,382.09

Pre-Tax Profit 3,672.10 4,495.93 5,284.21

Net Profit 2,872.10 3,449.82 4,099.13

EPS 64.83 78.15 92.10

BVPS 522.42 589.14 664.32

ROE 12.08 13.78 14.36

P/BV Chart

Face Value ( ) 1.00

52 Week High/Low 284.00/118.00

M.Cap (` Cr.) 3689.71

EPS (`) 11.35

P/E Ratio (times) 22.04

P/B Ratio (times) 7.63

Dividend Yield (%) 1.60

Stock Exchange BSE

`

` in cr

Particular Mar 2013 Mar 2014 Mar 2015

Revenue 605.66 749.90 907.45

EBITDA 172.55 213.85 258.54

EBIT 168.57 226.51 272.99

Operating Profit 168.57 484.25 588.40

Pre-Tax Profit 208.54 251.81 297.32

Net Profit 166.16 201.50 234.23

EPS 11.26 13.67 15.87

BVPS 32.72 38.09 44.63

ROE 36.50 37.17 37.37

VALUE PARAMETERS

% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale manufacturer and a national distributor also.

•The company is the 3rd largest player in the •The tax rate are low due to presence of factories overall hair oils segment. The company's product in tax free zone, as a result it only has to pay Value portfolio includes Bajaj Kailash Parbat Thanda Added Tax (VAT). The present level of effective tax Tel, Bajaj Almond Drops Hair Oil, Bajaj Brahmi rate of 20% will be same for next 2 – 3 years.Amla Hair Oil, Bajaj Amla Shikakai Hair Oil and •The net sales for FY13 have gone up by 28% to Bajaj Jasmine Hair Oil. Additionally, it has then 4 `605.66 crore and net profit by 39% to `167.38 new products ready since last 2 - 3 years, which crore. Volume grew by 21% and EBIDTA margin was are now in the various testing phase. up from 24.7% to 28.5% due to rise in gross margin

•The company, over the years, has created a strong which was at 57% against 53% in FY12. distribution network across 2.7 mn. retail outlets, Valuationwhich can be optimally utilized by introducing

The company will seek inorganic growth new products.

opportunities in the FMCG and hair oil market as part •Due to the company's long term contract and of growth strategy. The inorganic growth

negotiation skills, the Light liquid paraffin (LLP) opportunities will focus on targeting niche brands, price has been reduced. It has already locked in which can benefit the company's strong distribution LLP contract for Q1 and Q2 of FY14 at around network. We, thus, expect the stock to see a price current price `74/kg. The management said that target of `301 in one year time frame, based on it doesn't think LLP to come down in future. estimated FY14E EPS of 13.67 on a current P/Ex of

•On the capex front, the company is planning to 22.04.setup a plant at Baroda, which will cater to West and North India. If Goods and Services Tax (GST) comes in, it would benefit the company in terms of the freight because the raw material, packaging material goes from the west right up to the north and the finished goods come back.

•The company's market-share in non-coconut branded hair oil is 21%. The flagship brand Almond Drops Hair Oil (ADHO) volume market share was 52.6% and value market share of 55% at the end of March 2013.

•The company has floated fully owned subsidiary in Bangladesh and has identified 3rd party

P/E Chart

BAJAJ CORP LIMITED CMP: 250.15 Upside: 20%Target Price: 301

Source: Company Website Reuters Capitaline

10.12

0.15

1.31

84.75

3.68 Foreign

Institutions

Non Promoter Corporate Holding

Promoters

Public & Others

12.26

13.35

1.88

67.72

4.79 Foreign

Institutions

Non Promoter Corporate Holding

Promoters

Public & Others

Charts by Spider Software India Ltd

7

The stock closed at 184.00 on 20th June 2013. It made a 52-week low at 162.25

on 05th April 2013 and a 52-week high at `223 on 04th October 2012. The 200

days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly chart is

currently at ̀ 153.83.

After a marginal fall, it again rebounded from the lower levels forming higher

lows, which show its potential to move upwards. One can Buy in the range of 182-

184 levels with closing below stop loss of 175 levels for the target of 193-195

levels.

` `

EQUITY

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months

The stock closed at 237.90 on 20th June 2013. It made a 52-week low at 124.35

on 19rd July 2012 and a 52-week high of `255 on 23th May 2013. The 200 days

Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly chart is currently

at ̀ 119.63.

It is clear from the charts that it is in uptrend and the momentum is intact

despite weakness in all other counters. After retracing a bit, it again went

northwards, which determine its strength. One can Buy in the range of 230-232

levels with closing below stop loss of 220 levels for the target of 245-250 levels.

` `

The stock closed at 92.45 on 20th June 2013. It made a 52-week low at 76.55

on 18th July 2012 and a 52-week high at `104.40 on 24th December 2012. The

200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly chart is

currently at ̀ 80.83.

After a major consolidation between 85-90 levels, it started moving upwards

and remained on a positive note despite weakness in the broader index. The

upward journey has not completed yet. So, it is anticipated that it may further

shoot up in the near term. One can Buy in the range 91-93 levels with closing

below stop loss of 87 levels for the target of 100-105 levels.

` `

Ambuja Cements Limited

FDC Limited

Berger Paints (I) Limited

®

DERIVATIVES

BASIS GAP IN NIFTY

Nifty opened on a positive note last week at around 5800 levels and witnessed selling pressure throughout the week. The index has almost achieved the target of its bearish head and shoulder confirmed on daily charts at around 5900 levels. The overall market added open interest on the back of fall in cost of carry indicating short buildup. Banking, Realty and Metals sectors saw the highest addition in open interest. Nifty June futures premium changed to discount of -12.00 points. Nifty July futures premium decreased to 6.00 points from 18.00 points. Historical volatility rose to 21.30% from 19.10%. Nifty put options Implied Volatility (IV) increased to 19.22% while Nifty call options' Implied Volatility (IV) increased to 18.17%. Nifty Volatility Index (VIX) rose to 19.03%. Among Nifty options, the 5800-strike call has the highest open interest of 1 crore lakh shares followed by the 5600-strike put having open interest of 92 lakh shares. Last week, the 5800-strike call saw the highest addition in open interest of over 30 lakh shares, followed by 5700-strike call. The PCR OI for the week fell from levels of 0.92 to 0.80 levels on account of active writing seen in 5700 and 5800 calls. Also with Volatility Index (VIX) rising steadily, the index is likely to see high volatility in coming weeks. Going forward, Nifty will face selling pressure on every bounce towards 5700. On the downside, traders should watch for breach of 5580 levels, below which selling pressure can resume taking index to 5500 levels.

WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

NIFTY TOTAL OPEN INTEREST (in share)

FIIs ACTIVITY IN F&O IN LAST WEEK

(Derivative segment)

®

FIIs ACTIVITY IN F&O IN LAST TEN SESSIONS

(Derivative segment) `(Cr)

VOLTAS (JUN FUTURE)

Buy: Above `86.5

Target: `90.5

Stop loss: `85.5

HEROMOTOCOBuy JUN 1640 CALL 15.00Buy JUN 1580 PUT 11.00

Lot size: 125Upside BEP: 1666.00Downside BEP: 1554.00Max. Profit: UnlimitedMax. Loss: 3250.00 (26.00*125)

OPTIONSTRATEGY

FUTURESTRATEGY

MARUTI

Buy JUN.1560 CALL 24.00

Sell JUN.1600 CALL 9.00

Lot size: 250

BEP: 1575.00

Max. Profit: 6250.00 (25.00*250)

Max. Loss: 3750.00 ( 15.00*250)

RELCAPITAL (JUN FUTURE)

Sell: Below `312

Target: `303

Stop loss: `317

SBINBuy JUN 2050 CALL 10.00Buy JUN 1950 PUT 12.00

Lot size: 125Upside BEP: 2072.00Downside BEP: 1928.00Max. Profit: UnlimitedMax. Loss: 2750.00 (22.00*125)

VOLATILITY STRATEGY

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

BULLISH STRATEGY

RECLTD (JUN FUTURE)

Sell: Below `188

Target: `182

Stop loss: `191

134650 175100

603200

3164050

6025750

8487250

6546450

7721500

5566900

4188400

3334850

1593850

3257850

6006200

7467400

6674350

4681800

2643100

15702001305050

613850364050

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

8000000

9000000

5300 5400 5500 5600 5700 5800 5900 6000 6100 6200 6300

Call Put

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

06-Jun 07-Jun 10-Jun 11-Jun 12-Jun 13-Jun 14-Jun 17-Jun 18-Jun 19-Jun 20-Jun

892.13

1241.70

-656.77

-2236.41

-426.75

1971.61

-47.98 -33.25

-841.36 -874.28

-2500.00

-2000.00

-1500.00

-1000.00

-500.00

0.00

500.00

1000.00

1500.00

2000.00

2500.00

07-Jun 10-Jun 11-Jun 12-Jun 13-Jun 14-Jun 17-Jun 18-Jun 19-Jun 20-Jun

BUY52.3%

SELL47.7%

8

9

BHARTIARTL 8124000 9263000 14.02 0.92 0.90 -0.04 38.86 33.57 -5.29

DLF 15213000 20773000 36.55 0.50 0.43 -0.18 51.64 47.65 -3.99

HINDALCO 23664000 19622000 -17.08 1.02 0.70 0.05 49.31 30.37 -18.94

HINDUNILVR 9427000 9739000 3.31 0.74 0.66 -0.13 14.85 20.09 5.24

ICICIBANK 7953750 8577750 7.85 0.42 0.37 -0.37 34.61 32.76 -1.85

IDEA 8370000 10122000 20.93 0.44 0.78 0.12 38.74 43.71 4.97

INFY 2537250 2771875 9.25 0.43 0.40 -0.04 34.54 41.81 7.27

ITC 23932000 26586000 11.09 0.56 0.43 0.08 26.29 26.26 -0.03

JPASSOCIAT 61432000 62296000 1.41 0.33 0.30 -0.06 52.76 52.55 -0.21

NTPC 11172000 13892000 24.35 0.38 0.30 0.04 27.35 31.65 4.30

ONGC 7106000 8763000 23.32 0.33 0.27 -0.25 30.88 33.76 2.88

RANBAXY 3286500 3645500 10.92 0.69 0.79 -0.04 44.83 46.83 2.00

RCOM 46084000 43360000 -5.91 0.51 0.97 -0.35 66.95 68.25 1.30

RELIANCE 10729750 11396750 6.22 0.52 0.50 0.02 27.11 28.23 1.12

NIFTY 15641450 21534000 37.67 0.93 0.80 -0.20 17.09 18.17 1.08

SAIL 17884000 17740000 -0.81 0.46 0.42 0.02 35.24 36.72 1.48

SBIN 5565625 5273500 -5.25 0.47 0.47 -0.03 33.60 32.72 -0.88

TATASTEEL 18536000 19590000 5.69 0.39 0.38 -0.15 34.71 37.67 2.96

UNITECH 70930000 65180000 -8.11 0.28 0.32 -0.07 63.54 60.48 -3.06

IMPORTANT INDICATORS OF NIFTY AND OTHER ACTIVE FUTURE CONTRACTS

OPEN INTEREST PCR RATIO IMPLIED VOLATILITY

SCRIPTS PREV. CURRENT % PREV. CURRENT PREV. CURRENT WEEK WEEK CHANGE WEEK WEEK CHANGE WEEK WEEK CHANGE

DERIVATIVES

Put Call Ratio Analysis : The Put-Call open interest ratio of Nifty has decreased

to 0.80 from 0.93. At the end of the week, the maximum stocks had a negative of

change in put call open interest ratio.

Implied Volatility Analysis : The Implied Volatility (IV) for Nifty futures this week

has increased to 18.17% from 17.09%. The IV of the stock futures has changed this

week ranging from -18.94% to 7.27%.

Open Interest Analysis : The open interest for the index at the end of this week

has increased by 37.67% as compared to the previous week. All future stocks saw

changes in their open interest ranging from -17.08% to 37.67%. DLF has the

maximum increase in open interest as compared to other stocks.

Statistical Analysis·

Open 5769.00 High 5867.40

Low 5640.25 Close 5648.45

NIFTY & IV CHART NIFTY ANALYSIS

®

14

15

16

17

18

19

5600

5700

5800

5900

6000

14-Jun 17-Jun 18-Jun 19-Jun 20-Jun

Nifty Close IV

10

®

Bullion counter may witness some short covering after the sharp meltdown seen last week. Recently, weakening local currency rupee is giving cushion to the domestic gold prices, which has tested life time low of 60. Gold may trade in the range of $1240-1360 in COMEX and 26000-27800 in MCX. White metal silver can also trade in wide range of 39500-43000 in near term. COMEX Gold has entered into a bear market in April and has retreated more than 30 percent from its all-time high of $1,921.15 in September 2011 amid low inflation and a global equity rally. CME Group Inc. has increased the margin requirements on gold trading, raising the minimum cash deposit for futures by 25 percent to $8,800 per 100-ounce contract last week. Fed's indications of less downside risks in the economic environment and completion of QE tapering by mid 2014 have lifted the greenback. Meanwhile, benign inflation has reduced the appetite for gold purchases to hedge against inflation. Besides the Fed, a return of risk appetite, ETF outflow and lack of physical demand are key factors that are pressuring the yellow metal. Last week Fed Chairman Bernanke indicated the intention to complete the tapering process by mid-2014. According to him, "if the incoming data are broadly consistent with this forecast, the committee currently anticipates that it would be appropriate to moderate the pace of purchases later this year".

BULLIONS

Crude oil prices may extend the recent gains in MCX but investors have to be cautious at higher levels as prices have gone up at rapid pace in quick span of time. Middle East tensions and movement of dollar index will give further direction to the prices. Overall it can trade in the range of 5600-5900 in MCX and $95-100 in NYMEX. Crude oil prices were supported by Syrian tensions. The US and its allies proposed a no fly zone there but Russia has vowed to ban it. According to Russia's Foreign Ministry “These maneuvers about no-fly zones and humanitarian corridors are a direct consequence of a lack of respect for international law". Russia, along with China, abstained as UNSC permanent members on the votes for the imposition of the no-fly zone over Libya in 2011. Natural gas may move on the volatile path on the mixed fundamentals. Overall it can trade in range of 224-244 in MCX. Energy Information Administration stated that inventories have expanded by 91 billion cubic feet in the week ended June 14 to 2.438 trillion cubic feet. The stockpile increase was bigger than the five year average gain for the week of 80 billion cubic feet. A deficit to the five year average narrowed to 1.9 percent from 2.4 percent the previous week. Supplies were 18.7 percent below year-earlier inventories, down from 20 percent in last week's report. Temperatures across most of the lower 48 states will be above normal from June 25 through July 14, according to MDA Weather Services in Gaithersburg, Maryland.

ENERGY COMPLEX

Base metals complex may remain on weaker side due to rise in greenback and on the signal Fed would end stimulus measures. China's flash HSBC PMI slipped to 48.3, the lowest level since September, in June from 49.2 a month ago. As the reading moved further below the 50 level, contraction in China's manufacturing sector has become more serious. According to the HSBC, the manufacturing sectors "are weighed down by deteriorating external demand, moderating domestic demand and rising destocking pressures. Red metal copper can trade in the range of 390-420. Copper stockpiles monitored by the LME climbed for a fifth day to 643,125 tons, the highest since July 2003. A shortage of cash in China is boosting its imports of copper as a financing tool, resulting in premiums paid for spot refined metal supplies from overseas climbing to near four year highs. Nickel prices can trade in the range of 790-845 in MCX. China's nickel pig iron producers are turning to a new technology that allows them to survive at lower prices, a move that suggests nickel prices, already at four-year lows, could fall further. Aluminum prices may move in the range of 103-108 levels while Zinc prices can hover in range of 105-109 in MCX. While battery metal Lead can move in range of 118-124. Makers of products such as cans and packaging foils faced record high aluminium surcharges in the U.S. Midwest as more of the metal gets sucked into backlogged warehouses in Detroit that are registered by the London Metal Exchange (LME).

BASE METALS

Turmeric futures (July) may witness a consolidation in the range of 5450-5900 levels. Currently, the spot markets are facing the setback of slack sales & arrivals. Market participants are keeping a close watch on the demand-supply situation with the resumption of Erode market after a 5 day closure. Meanwhile, the Federation of All-India Turmeric Farmers Association has urged the Tamil Nadu Government to procure turmeric from growers at `10,000/qtl. Jeera futures (July) is likely to trade higher towards 13700-13800 levels, surpassing 13600 levels. Being an exportable commodity, the counter may take advantage of the weaker rupee, currently it is near life-time low of 60 as against the US dollar. Moreover, cumin seed price at the spot market are quoting up on exporters demand. In Singapore one per cent Indian cumin seed offered at USD 2,490 per tonne FOB Mumbai. Chilli futures are expected to remain in bearish zone as lower buying interest in being reported from the spot markets owing to lean season. Market participants expect that total area of chilli in Madhya Pradesh is likely to augment by 20-30% from the last year on account of favorable monsoon in the current year. Cardamom futures (July) is likely to witness an extended profit booking towards 740-730 levels. The first round picking activity may start at the end of June & new crop is seen comparatively better than that of the previous season.

SPICES

OTHER COMMODITIES

Guar complex is likely to slip further on the expectation of higher acreage this year as farmers in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka are getting interested since its prices are better than other crops. Monsoon would play a crucial role in the upcoming guar sowing, which will also decide the further direction of the counter. As cited by Indian Metrological Department, rainfall over the country as a whole for the month of July 2013 is likely to be 101% of its LPA and that for the month of August is likely to be 96% of LPA both with a model error of ± 9 %. Sugar futures (July) will remain below 3100 levels. The proposal to hike sugar import duty was deferred & no increase is planned until Sept, 2013. At the spot market, the bearish factors such as higher carry-over stocks, 110-115 truckloads of inventories at Vashi wholesale market & selling pressure from crushers in order to ease their inventory burden may keep the sweetener in the bearish zone. Wheat futures (July) is expected to fall further below 1650 levels. In the recent news, India has deferred a decision on allowing additional wheat for overseas sales & on the contrary, it has approved a proposal to sell 10.5 million tonnes of wheat and rice in the open market to ease prices. On the spot market, prices have fallen in past few days as arrivals have increased in mandis as farmers are trying to release wheat stocks ahead of heavy monsoon showers in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. Slack demand from millers and stockist too have pressurized the market prices.

Mustard futures (July) is expected to consolidate in the range of 3500-3560 levels. The seed supplies are consistently much higher as compared to the same period last year. Crushing is at the normal pace across all the major centers in Rajasthan, UP, MP, Haryana and Punjab. The downside may remain capped on the improved buying support across the cash markets in the key producing regions. CPO futures (July) is expected to continue its bull-run, taking support above 495 levels & getting a boost from the Malaysian palm oil futures at three months high alongwith a weaker rupee. On the contrary, the ringgit lost its ground as against the dollar with the greenback stronger, making the Malaysian palm oil cheaper for overseas buyers and improving refiners' margins. On the domestic market, expectation of stock build up by stockist ahead of Muslim festivities is likely to support the market sentiments. Soybean futures (July) will possibly hover in the range of 3800-4000 levels. The crushers are quoting the bean high to meet the soy meal exports commitment followed by the better realization on stronger US dollar. Moreover, the poultry consumption improves with the progress of the monsoon. On the CBOT, U.S soybean futures (July) is seen to remain below the resistance of 1540 levels. Market participants would keep their focus on the weather forecasts & planting progress report. The USDA is scheduled to release updated crop progress on June 24, weekly weather and crop bulletin on June 25 & planting figures on June 28.

OIL AND OILSEEDS

Closing as on 20.06.13

11

NOTES : 1) Buy / Sell 25% of Commodity at S1/R1 respectively & rest 75% at S2/R2 respectively.2) S1 & S2 indicate first support & second support & R1 & R 2 indicate first resistance & second resistance. 3) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the commodity. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly

basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.4) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of Daily report- commodities.

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

EXCHANGE CONTRACT CLOSING DATE TREND

PRICE CHANGED CHANGED STOP/LOSS

NCDEX SOYABEAN (JULY) 3939.50 07.03.13 UP 3421.50 3700.00 - 3600.00 - 3500.00

NCDEX JEERA (JULY) 13412.00 11.04.13 UP 13795.00 12400.00 - 12000.00 - 11500.00

NCDEX RED CHILLI (JULY) 5500.00 17.04.13 DOWN 6362.00 - 6000.00 6200.00 6300.00

NCDEX RM SEEDS (JULY) 3534.00 11.04.13 UP 3586.00 3280.00 - 3200.00 - 3100.00

MCX MENTHA OIL (JUNE) 1000.10 13.06.13 SIDEWAYS

MCX CARDAMOM (JULY) 774.30 28.02.13 DOWN 965.00 - 820.00 850.00 900.00

MCX SILVER (JULY) 41305.00 20.12.12 DOWN 57351.00 - 44000.00 46000.00 48000.00

MCX GOLD (AUGUST ) 26869.00 30.05.13 SIDEWAYS

MCX COPPER (JUNE) 404.75 30.05.13 UP 414.55 390.00 - 380.00 - 370.00

MCX LEAD (JUNE) 120.80 30.05.13 UP 122.90 117.00 - 113.00 - 110.00

MCX ZINC (JUNE) 109.25 30.05.13 UP 107.55 104.00 - 102.00 - 100.00

MCX NICKEL(JUNE) 820.40 21.02.13 DOWN 920.30 - 870.00 900.00 920.00

MCX ALUMINUM(JUNE) 105.70 30.05.13 UP 106.60 104.00 - 102.00 - 100.00

MCX CRUDE OIL (JULY) 5733.00 06.06.13 UP 5404.00 5400.00 - 5300.00 - 5200.00

MCX NATURAL GAS (JULY) 235.30 06.06.13 DOWN 218.60 - 245.00 255.00 265.00

TREND RATE TREND S1 R1 S2 R2 CLOSING

*

TREND SHEET

COMMODITY

MAIZE NCDEX (JULY) contract closed at 1365.00 on 20th June '13. The contract made its high of

`1488.00 on 1ST June '13 and a low of ̀ 1143.00 on 6th May '13. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average

of the commodity is currently at ̀ 1356.10. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 56.55. One can buy the

range 1350-1330 with the stop loss of ̀ 1300 for a target of ̀ 1440.

`

LEAD MCX (JULY) contract closed at 120.80 on 20th June '13. The contract made its high of 128.40 on

5th June '13 and a low of `107.30 on 15th May '13.The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the

Commodity is currently at ̀ 121.41.

On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 38.74.One can sell in

the range 121-123 with the stop loss of ̀ 126 for target of ̀ 115.

` `

WHEAT NCDEX (AUGUST) contract closed at 1609.00 on 20th June '13.The contract made its high of

`1667.00 on 11th June '13 and a low of `1586.00 on 21st June '13.The 18-day Exponential Moving

Average of the Commodity is currently at ̀ 1622.

On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 44. One can sell in the

range 1610-1630 with the stop loss of ̀ 1650 for a target of ̀ 1560.

`

®

MAIZE NCDEX (JULY)

LEAD MCX (JULY)

WHEAT NCDEX (AUGUST)

COMMODITY

NEWS DIGEST

Gold fell sharply lower this week as the fear of tapering of monetary easing as indicated by fed chairman in the recent meeting. Gold and silver fell in COMEX to their lowest levels since September 2010 after the Federal Reserve signaled that it is getting closer to reducing monetary stimulus as the economy recovers. Gold broke the key support of $1300 in COMEX and 27000 in MCX last week while silver slipped below $20 in COMEX and below 41500 in MCX. Bullion has tumbled by 24 percent this year in COMEX, heading for the biggest annual drop since 1981, as some investors lose faith in gold as a protection of wealth amid speculation that the Fed will taper debt buying that helped the metal cap a 12-year bull run last year. Crude oil prices continued its upside momentum as it tested the key level of 5800 in MCX and $98 in NYMEX. Middle East tensions continue to support the crude oil prices as U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry will confront concerns from Middle East and European allies that a U.S. plan to send small arms won't do enough to bolster Syrian rebels battling Bashar al-Assad's regime. Selling pressure was seen in the base metals counter due to rise in greenback and as Federal Reserve signalled end of stimulus measures. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke last week stated that the central bank, which buys $85 billion a month of Treasury and mortgage debt, may begin reducing purchases this year and end the program in 2014 should the economy continue to improve.

The utterances of “Monsoon & Rupee” were the buzzwords among the market participants in the commodity market. The furious rains drenched the farm fields of country in record time, proved beneficial to the plantings of summer crops such as rice, soybean, cane and cotton. The Southwest monsoon covered the whole country by June 16, ahead of its scheduled date for the first time since 1961. On the contrary, Rupee made an all time low at 60 as against U.S. dollar, making imports costlier for agri-commodities like pulses, edible oils & on the contrary boosting exports for grains, spices, oilmeals & mint. On the spot market, mentha oil prices gained supported by some crop loss due to heavy downpour in growing areas such as Rampur, Sambhal and Moradabad. Soybean prices maintained the upbeat backed by fresh buying by millers eyeing the export demand amid a weaker local currency. Edible oil counters witnessed multi-week rally as demand continued to sustain ahead of Ramadan festival & imports became costlier with depreciation in the currency. Among the spices, cardamom & jeera remained stable following good upcountry demand at the spot markets.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)

COMMODITY UNIT 12.06.13 19.06.13 DIFFERENCEQTY.

BARLEY MT 28246 29598 1352

CASTOR SEED MT 136132 150522 14390

CHANA MT 126486 130984 4498

CHILLI MT 15214 13450 -1764

COTTONSEED OILCAKE MT 105767 98781 -6986

JEERA MT 8210 8425 215

MAIZE MT 3877 6590 2713

RAPE MUSTARD SEED MT 82646 91074 8428

SOYA BEAN SEEDS MT 17724 21241 3517

SUGAR M MT 4942 9557 4615

WHEAT MT 13936 16077 2141

COMMODITY UNIT 13.06.13 20.06.13 DIFFERENCE

QTY. QTY.

CARDAMOM MT 55.60 57.90 2.30

COTTON BALES 161400.00 161400.00 0.00

GOLD KGS 487.00 483.00 -4.00

GOLD MINI KGS 442.10 341.10 -101.00

GOLD GUINEA KGS 270.85 268.67 -2.18

MENTHA OIL KGS 261349.55 267826.85 6477.30

MILD STEEL MT 1615.42 1604.09 -11.33

SILVER (30 KG Bar) KGS 13514.22 13483.73 -30.49

•Commodity Transaction Tax (CTT) at 0.01% of the

transaction value will be levied on various non-

agricultural commodities, including gold, sugar, guar

gum, Mentha oil and edible oils, with effect from

July 1.

•The government has allowed units in SEZs zones to

export gold items after a minimum value addition

of 3%.

•Data from the Director General of Commercial

Intelligence and Statistics, Government of India,

showed that guar gum exports rose to Rs.21,287 crore

in 2012-2013 from ̀ 16,523 crore in 2011- 2012.

•National Spot Exchange launched spot contract is of

FAQ grade (Fair Average Quality)/ Farm grade basis of

Jeera having delivery center at Unjha with T+5

settlements with lot size of 3 MT.

•The U.S. Mint reported selling 23,500oz of gold coins

so far in June.

•China produced an average of 2.156 million tonnes of

crude steel a day in the first ten days of June.

•US home resale's hit a 3-1/2-year high in May and

factory activity in the Mid-Atlantic region rebounded

this month.

•Japan's customs-cleared crude oil imports rose 0.7

percent in May from a year earlier, the first annual

rise in eight months.

•South Korea's imports of crude oil from Iran dropped

8.3 percent in May from a year ago.

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)

12

®

NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change) MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

QTY.

7.53

3.64 3.53 3.41 3.36

-5.89

-3.60

-2.02 -1.88 -1.87

-8.00

-6.00

-4.00

-2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

GUAR SEED TURMERIC SOYAMEAL MAIZE RABI GUAR GUM SILVER NEW CASTOR SEED NEW

COTTON 29 MM

CHANALONG

7.68 7.64

3.48

2.80

2.03

-5.67

-3.39

-1.23

-0.76 -0.75

-8.00

-6.00

-4.00

-2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

GUARSEED NATURAL GAS CPO GUAR GUM ZINC SILVER GOLD COTTON NICKEL STEEL RPR

SPDR Gold Trust……...Loosing investor's faith

13

SPOT PRICES (% change)

COMMODITY

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)

COMMODITY STOCK POSITION STOCK POSITION DIFFERENCE

13.06.13 20.06.13

ALUMINIUM 5214150 5414250 200100

COPPER 609550 638325 28775

NICKEL 183720 185688 1968

LEAD 200325 204625 4300

ZINC 1096250 1078025 -18225

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT UNIT 14.06.13 20.06.13 CHANGE(%)

Soya CBOT JULY Cent per Bushel 1516.50 1497.50 -1.25

Maize CBOT JULY Cent per Bushel 655.00 673.25 2.79

CPO BMD AUG MYR per MT 2439.00 2472.00 1.35

Sugar LIFFE AUG 10 cents per MT 484.40 488.10 0.76

COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT 14.06.13 20.06.13 CHANGE%

ALUMINIUM LME 3 MONTHS 1851.00 1797.50 -2.89

COPPER LME 3 MONTHS 7090.00 6770.00 -4.51

LEAD LME 3 MONTHS 2109.00 2018.00 -4.31

NICKEL LME 3 MONTHS 14325.00 13700.00 -4.36

ZINC LME 3 MONTHS 1860.00 1830.00 -1.61

GOLD COMEX AUG 1387.60 1286.20 -7.31

SILVER COMEX JULY 21.95 19.82 -9.71

LIGHT CRUDE OIL NYMEX AUG 98.07 95.14 -2.99

NATURAL GAS NYMEX JULY 3.73 3.88 3.86

PRICES OF METALS IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)

Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest exchange-traded product backed

by the metal, fell below 1,000 metric tonnes on June 19, 2013 for the first time in four

years, erasing more than $29 billion from the fund's value this year. According to SPDR

Gold Trust, in 2013 the Holdings have slumped 351.3 tons, or 26 percent, to 999.56

tons, the lowest since February 2009.

SPDR Gold Trust holdings have hit a record at 1,353.35 tonnes in December 10, 2012

since its inception. Nowadays it has slipped to the world's eighth-largest holder of

gold from sixth largest holder after the United States, Germany, the International

Monetary Fund, Italy, France, china and Switzerland. Billionaire John Paulson is the

biggest investor in the fund.

FACTORS BEHIND DCLINING

The SPDR Gold Trust tracks the performance of the price of gold. Normally, when the

price of gold goes up, the holding of trust also rises. But nowadays gold prices are on

downtrend due to global equity rally and lowering inflation. This year gold slumped

by 18 percent after 12 straight annual gains as investors lost faith on the commodity

as a store of value and as hedge against inflation. The declining trend of gold prices

has forced the investor to sell the gold holding and to park the money in riskier assets.

Recently, gold prices fell

after Federal Reserve

Chairman Ben S.

Bernanke said that the

central bank may

“moderate” the pace of

U.S. bond purchases later

this year. The gold prices

has surged 55 percent

since the end of 2008,

reaching an all-time high

of $1,923.70 in September 2011, as the Fed cut borrowing costs to a record to bolster

the economy.

About SPDR Gold Trust

SPDR Gold Trust is a largest gold ETF, originally listed on the New York Stock Exchange.

It is one of the fastest growing ETFs in the US. Started in November of 2004 and traded

on NYSE Arca since December 13, 2007, the Trust holds physical gold and from time to

time, issues SPDR Gold Shares in Baskets, in exchange for deposits of gold. SPDR Gold

Shares offer investors an innovative, relatively cost efficient and secure way to

access the gold market. A basket equals to a block of 100,000 Shares. It means the

shares may be purchased from the trust only in one or more blocks of 100,000 Shares.

The buying and storage prices of gold have made it expensive and difficult for most

investors to enter into the gold market on their own. SPDR Gold Trust solves this

problem by accepting deposits of gold bullion and distributing shares in return.

The Trustee values the gold according to the most recent London PM Fix. The London

Fix is a widely-recognized benchmark for gold and silver prices.

Many Investors See Gold as a Safe-Haven Investment

Gold is widely perceived as a safe-haven investment. Gold retains its value despite

movements in the stock market. At the time of economic uncertainty, political unrest

and high inflation gold offers investors an attractive opportunity to diversify their

portfolios-potentially reducing overall portfolio risk and ultimately preserving

portfolio wealth. Now time has changed. Due to hope global recovery, especially in

US, safe haven buying of gold is falling as sentiment of investor has changed about

global economic reform.

®

-3.88

-3.69

-3.17

-2.60

-1.81

-1.09

-0.97

-0.31

-0.29

-0.05

0.00

0.26

0.29

0.57

0.70

1.06

1.18

1.24

1.41

3.09

7.60

-6.00 -4.00 -2.00 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00

SILVER (DELHI)

CHILLI (GUNTUR)

RAW JUTE (KOLKATA)

GOLD KG (MUMBAI)

CARDAMOM (VANDANMEDU)

WHEAT (DELHI)

MASOOR (INDORE)

CHANA (DELHI)

BARLEY (JAIPUR)

GUR (MUZAFFARNGR.)

MILD STEEL INGOTS (GHAZIABAD)

CORIANDER (KOTA)

RUBBER (KOCHI)

JEERA (UNJHA)

MUSTARD (JAIPUR)

PEPPER MALABAR GAR (KOCHI)

REFINED SOYA OIL (INDORE)

TURMERIC (NIZAMABAD)

CRUDE PALM OIL (KANDLA)

SOYABEAN (INDORE)

MENTHA OIL (CHANDAUSI)

CURRENCY

Currency Table

Currency Pair Open High Low Close

USD/INR 58.00 60.47 57.95 60.12

EUR/INR 77.15 79.94 77.15 79.26

GBP/INR 90.51 93.15 89.61 92.78

JPY/INR 60.93 62.18 60.89 61.24

(Source: FX Central, Open: Monday 9.00 AM IST, Close: Thursday 5.00 PM IST)

News Flows of last week

17th June: British construction output posted the smallest annual fall in almost

a year and a half in April

18th June: British inflation rebounded more than expected in May

20th June: British retail sales bounced back much more than expected in May

20th June: Bernanke said Fed is likely to reduce bond buying this year

20th June: U.S. activity gauged at five-year high

20th June: U.S Manufacturing activity growth slowed slightly in June

20th June: U.S Home resale hit a 3-1/2-year high in May

EUR/INR (JULY) contract closed at 79.26 on 20th June'13. The contract made its high of ̀ 79.94 on 20th June'13 and a low of ̀ 77.15 on 17thJune'13 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at ̀ 77.27.

On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 73.30. One can buy on around 78.00 for a target of 79.00 with the stop loss of 77.50

`

JPY/INR (JULY) contract closed at 61.24 on 20th June'13. The contract made its

high of ̀ 62.18 on 20thJune'13 and a low of ̀ 60.89 on 17th June'13 (Weekly Basis).

The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at ̀ 60.14.

On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 64.26.

One can buy around 60.25 for a target of 61.25 with the stop loss of ̀ 59.75.

`

Market Stance

The rupee slumped to a record low last week testing psychological level of 60 on

future bourses on back of knee-jerk investor reactions to the US Federal

Reserve's saying the it will slow down bond-buying programme in view of

improving American economy. A possible winding down of the asset purchase

programme of the US Fed and improvement in the health of the US economy will

strengthen the US dollar. Investors will withdraw investments from the emerging

markets such as India in the short term and chase assets in the US. The rupee's

slide comes as another blow at a time when revenue growth is slowing and

margins are being squeezed. The currency has lost 11% since May. This will

adversely impact capital-intensive sectors and firms with foreign borrowings and

those who import raw materials heavily.

EUR/INR

USD/INR (JULY) contract closed at 60.12 on 20th June'13. The contract made its high of ̀ 60.47 on 20th June'13 and a low of ̀ 57.95 on 17th June'13 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at ̀ 58.46.

On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 71.25. One can buy on around 59.00 for a target of 60.00 with the stop loss of 58.45.

`

GBP/INR (JULY) contract closed at 92.78 on 20th June'13. The contract made its

high of ̀ 93.15 on 20th June'13 and a low of ̀ 89.61 on 17th June'13 (Weekly Basis).

The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at ̀ 90.54.

On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 74.56. One

can buy on dips around 91.30 for a target of ̀ 92.30 with the stop loss of ̀ 90.80.

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USD/INRTechnical Recommendation

GBP/INR JPY/INR

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Economic gauge for the next week

Date Currency Event PREVIOUS

26th June GBP Inflation Report Hearings

26th June USD Gross Domestic Product Annualized 2.40%

27th June EUR Unemployment Change 21K

27th June EUR Unemployment Rate s.a. 6.90%

27th June GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) 0.30%

27th June GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 0.60%

27th June JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY) -0.70%

27th June JPY National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) -0.60%

28th June EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY) 1.50%

28th June EUR Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) 1.60%

IPOIPO

INDIAN IPO NEWS

Intas Pharmaceuticals files IPO papers with SEBI

Gujarat-based Intas Pharmaceuticals has filed Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) with the market regulator SEBI to list its public issue on

exchanges. Intas Pharmaceuticals is engaged in the development, manufacture and marketing of pharmaceutical formulations. Healthcare

firm intends to use issue proceeds for marketing authorization expenses; setting up of research and development facility; and general

corporate purposes. Equity shares are proposed to be listed on the NSE and the BSE. Kotak Mahindra Capital Company Limited and Morgan

Stanley India Company Private Limited are the book running lead managers, however Link Intime India Private Limited is the registrar to the

issue.

SAT upholds Sebi order against Link Intime in IPO irregularities scam

The Securities Appellate Tribunal (SAT) has upheld the capital market regulator's order against Link Intime India in a matter related to the

irregularities in public issues — commonly known as the IPO irregularities scam — between 2004 and 2007. The order is significant as it is

believed that the ruling could impact other appeals related to the IPO scam. In early 2007, Sebi conducted an inspection into certain affairs of

Link Intime while managing seven IPOs between 2004 and 2007. The inspection revealed a large number of discrepancies, which, according to

Sebi, were mainly due to deficiencies in the registrar's system.

Just Dial Service provider 4347.66 950.11 5-Jun-13 530.00 590.00 622.25 17.41

Repco Home Fin Finance 1313.75 270.39 1-Apr-13 172.00 165.00 211.35 22.88

V-Mart Retail Trading 251.35 123.00 20-Feb-13 210.00 216.00 139.95 -33.36

Bharti Infra. Telecom 27425.23 4533.60 28-Dec-12 220.00 200.00 145.20 -34.00

PC Jeweller Jewellary 1741.75 609.30 27-Dec-12 135.00 135.50 97.25 -27.96

CARE Rating Agency 1963.53 540.00 26-Dec-12 750.00 949.00 687.75 -8.30

Tara Jewels Jewellary 307.25 179.50 6-Dec-12 230.00 242.00 125.00 -45.65

VKS Projects EPC 204.75 55.00 18-Jul-12 55.00 55.80 3.25 -94.09

Speciality Restaruants Restaurants 739.85 181.96 30-May-12 150.00 153.00 157.55 5.03

T B Z Jewellary 1326.00 210.00 9-May-12 120.00 115.00 198.80 65.67

MT Educare Miscellaneous 374.93 99.00 12-Apr-12 80.00 86.05 94.25 17.81

NBCC Construction 1597.20 124.97 12-Apr-12 106.00 100.00 133.10 25.57

Olympic card. Media 81.79 24.75 28-Mar-12 30.00 29.95 50.15 67.17

Multi Comm. Exc. Exchange 4204.19 663.31 9-Mar-12 1032.00 1387.00 824.35 -20.12

Indo Thai Sec. Finance 12.06 29.60 2-Nov-11 74.00 75.00 12.06 -83.70

Vaswani Inds. Steel 7.94 49.00 24-Oct-11 49.00 33.45 2.91 -94.06

M and B Switch. Capital Goods 411.00 93.00 20-Oct-11 186.00 180.00 20.55 -88.95

Flexituff Intl. Packaging 512.45 104.63 19-Oct-11 155.00 155.00 223.00 43.87

Prakash Constro. Construction 11.69 60.00 4-Oct-11 138.00 145.00 0.93 -99.33

PG Electro. Consumer Durables 118.73 120.65 26-Sep-11 210.00 200.00 72.35 -65.55

SRS Jewellary 452.00 203.00 16-Sep-11 58.00 55.00 32.45 -44.05

TD Power Sys. Capital Goods 778.31 227.00 8-Sep-11 256.00 251.60 234.15 -8.54

Tree House Edu. Miscellaneous 970.92 112.06 26-Aug-11 135.00 132.80 270.00 100.00

L&T Fin.Holdings Finance 13502.95 1245.00 12-Aug-11 52.00 51.00 78.65 51.25

Inventure Grow. Finance 41.92 81.90 4-Aug-11 117.00 119.00 4.99 -95.74

IPO TRACKER

Company Sector M.Cap(In Cr.) Issue Size(in Cr.) List Date Issue Price List Price Last Price %Gain/Loss(from Issue price)

*

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16

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MUTUAL FUND

NEWS

Tata MF introduces Fixed Maturity Plan Series 42- Scheme I (371 days maturity)

Tata Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of Tata Fixed Maturity Plan Series 42- Scheme I (371 days maturity), a Close Ended income scheme. The NFO opens for subscription on June 20, 2013, and closes on June 25, 2013. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate income and / or capital appreciation by investing in wide range of Debt and Money Market instruments having maturity in line with the maturity of the scheme.

IDFC MF introduces Fixed Term Plan Series – 20

IDFC Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of IDFC Fixed Term Plan Series - 20, a Close Ended income scheme. The NFO opens for subscription on June 19, 2013, and closes on June 24, 2013. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate income by investing in a portfolio of debt and money market instruments maturing on or before the maturity of each Plan(s) under the scheme. There is no assurance or guarantee that the objectives of the scheme will be realized.

Reliance MF introduces Dual Advantage Fixed Tenure Fund III - Plan D

Reliance Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of Reliance Dual Advantage Fixed Tenure Fund III - Plan D, a Close Ended income scheme. The NFO opens for subscription on June 17, 2013, and closes on June 28, 2013. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate returns and reduce interest rate volatility, through a portfolio of fixed income securities that are maturing on or before the maturity of the Scheme along with capital appreciation through equity exposure.

Edelweiss MF announces change in exit load Structure

Edelweiss Mutual Fund has announced the change in exit load of Edelweiss Short Term Income Fund, with effect from June 18, 2013. Accordingly, the revised exit load will be nil. Edelweiss Short Term Income Fund is an open ended income scheme with an objective to generate regular income through investments in Debt & Money Market Instruments.

Taurus MF declares dividend under FMP Series-U (369 days close ended debt scheme)

Taurus Mutual Fund has declared dividend under dividend option of Taurus FMP Series-U (369 days close ended debt scheme). The record date for dividend is June 24, 2013. The investment objective of the Scheme is to generate income with minimum volatility through investments in a portfolio of debt and money market instruments maturing on or before the maturity of the Scheme. However, there is no assurance or guarantee that the objectives of the scheme will be realized and the scheme does not assure or guarantee any returns.

Axis Mutual Fund declares dividend under Axis Fixed Term Plan-Series 34 (392 days)

Axis Mutual Fund has declared dividend under dividend and quarterly dividend option of Axis Fixed Term Plan-Series 34 (392 days) under Axis Fixed Term Plan-Series 32-36, a close ended debt scheme. The record date for dividend is June 25, 2013. The quantum of dividend on the face value of ̀ 10 per unit will be 0.20 per unit. `

NFOs WATCH

Fund Name NFO NFO Scheme Objective Fund Type Fund Class Fund Manager MinimumOpens on Closes on Amount

10-Jun-2013 24-Jun-2013 Close-Ended Growth `5000/-DWS Hybrid Fixed Term Fund - Series 14 (3 years) (G)

Akash Singhania / Kumaresh Ramkrishnan

To generate steady returns along with high

liquidity by investing in a portfolio of short-

term, high quality money market and debt

instruments.

13-Jun-2013 27-Jun-2013 Close-Ended Growth `5000/-ICICI Prudential Multiple Yield Fund - Series 4 - Plan B - Direct Plan (G)

Rajat Chandak / Rahul Goswami

To generate income by investing in a

portfolio of fixed income securities/ debt

instruments.The secondary objective of the

Scheme is to generate long term capital

appreciation by investing a portion of the

Scheme\'s assets in equity and equity

related instruments.

17-Jun-2013 28-Jun-2013 Close-Ended Dividend `5000/-Reliance Dual Advantage Fixed Tenure Fund III - Plan D (D)

Krishan Daga / Anju Chajjer

To generate returns and reduce interest

rate volatility, through a portfolio of fixed

income securities that are maturing on or

before the maturity of the Scheme along

with capital appreciation through equity

exposure.

14-Jun-2013 28-Jun-2013 Close-Ended Growth `10000/-Tata Dual Advantage Fund - Scheme A ( 3 year ) (G)

Amit Somani ~ Thomas J Priju

To generate income and / or capital

appreciation by investing predominantly in

portfolio of fixed income instruments

normally matures on or before the date of

the maturity of the scheme .The scheme

will invest small portion of the scheme

assets in equity/equity related instument

including derivative instruments.In case of

investment in equity derivatives, the

derivative contract shall have expiry before

the maturity of the scheme.

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18

MUTUAL FUND Performance Charts

Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)

Scheme Name NAV Launch AUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Beta Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &

(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER

Birla Sun Life India GenNext Fund - G 31.32 05-Aug-2005 128.25 5.95 -1.51 27.42 12.73 15.59 1.76 0.76 0.18 47.62 40.31 4.72 7.35

Franklin India Smaller Companies Fund - G 16.42 13-Jan-2006 322.84 3.91 -2.02 25.10 6.66 6.89 1.80 0.66 0.15 21.65 59.10 8.74 10.51

ICICI Prudential Service Industries Fund - G 19.55 30-Nov-2005 151.67 0.98 3.11 24.84 5.41 9.27 1.62 0.65 0.16 58.69 32.58 1.37 7.36

Franklin India Prima Fund - Growth 315.03 01-Dec-1993 786.10 3.75 -3.19 22.72 6.39 19.28 1.64 0.60 0.13 64.29 27.52 0.92 7.27

SBI Magnum Midcap Fund - Growth 25.19 29-Mar-2005 218.83 1.98 -7.62 21.93 4.21 11.88 1.84 0.64 0.09 3.01 69.97 15.30 11.72

Axis Equity Fund - Growth 12.30 05-Jan-2010 531.80 2.33 1.82 21.06 4.49 6.17 1.71 0.84 0.16 79.01 5.86 3.76 11.37

Morgan Stanley Growth Fund - Growth 64.85 18-Feb-1994 1331.44 2.26 -1.75 20.75 2.74 11.86 1.72 0.81 0.12 71.48 22.41 0.75 5.37

EQUITY (Diversified)

BALANCED

INCOME FUND

Note: Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option. The above mentioned data is on the basis of 20/06/2013Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 7%

ULTRA SHORT TERM

SHORT TERM FUND

Due to their inherent long term nature, the following 3 categories have been sorted on the basis of 1 year returns

Due to their inherent short term nature, the following 2 categories have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns

Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)

Scheme Name NAV Launch AUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &

(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER

SBI Magnum Balanced Fund - Growth 55.58 09-Oct-1995 374.07 1.30 -1.18 19.98 4.19 15.45 1.19 0.11 28.37 31.85 6.56 33.22

ICICI Prudential Balanced - Growth 54.93 03-Nov-1999 447.50 1.03 -1.26 15.04 8.98 13.30 1.22 0.04 42.43 21.77 2.34 33.46

FT India Balanced Fund - Growth 54.28 10-Dec-1999 212.45 2.83 -0.28 13.40 5.36 13.31 1.27 0.03 52.79 18.83 1.26 27.12

Tata Balanced Fund - Plan A - Growth 95.87 08-Oct-1995 508.47 1.91 -3.13 13.38 7.05 15.61 1.41 0.04 51.91 20.01 2.02 26.07

Birla Sun Life 95 - Growth 334.28 10-Feb-1995 575.99 0.78 -3.22 12.22 5.20 21.05 1.42 0.01 52.24 15.86 0.72 31.18

Kotak Balance 18.28 25-Nov-1999 114.23 0.35 -0.53 11.11 5.23 15.08 1.27 0.02 54.87 9.70 0.47 34.96

UTI Balanced Fund - Growth 83.37 20-Jan-1995 943.25 -0.87 -4.58 9.92 2.86 15.85 1.29 -0.02 50.83 21.71 0.80 26.66

Returns (%) RiskAverage Yield till

Scheme Name NAV Launch AUM Since Std. SharpeMaturity (Days) Maturity

1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.

Morgan Stanley Active Bond Fund - Reg - G 12.81 03-Jun-2009 203.36 -16.59 -24.57 -10.30 18.92 14.83 8.27 6.31 23.32 0.28 2838.00 7.95

Birla Sun Life Income Plus - DAP 14.10 06-Mar-2009 2901.32 -13.06 -28.28 -10.49 18.36 14.65 9.63 8.33 21.43 0.31 N.A 7.76

Birla Sun Life Income Plus - Growth 55.89 21-Oct-1995 2901.32 -13.07 -28.27 -10.48 18.29 14.62 9.62 10.22 21.42 0.31 N.A 7.76

SBI Magnum Income Fund - Growth 30.32 25-Nov-1998 3018.90 -15.81 -26.79 -11.16 16.49 14.59 10.16 7.86 19.69 0.37 3427.00 7.86

SBI Dynamic Bond Fund - Growth 15.34 09-Feb-2004 5332.48 -17.61 -28.15 -11.80 16.60 13.92 11.48 4.79 20.31 0.30 3741.00 7.84

UTI Bond Fund - Growth 36.51 04-May-1998 1776.96 -0.77 -20.43 -10.23 16.72 13.91 10.42 8.93 19.45 0.29 4211.00 N.A

IDFC SSIF - Invt. Plan - Plan F - Growth 13.23 16-Jul-2010 1238.43 -6.22 -17.57 -6.38 15.90 13.83 N.A 10.03 16.84 0.37 2135.00 7.92

Annualised

Returns (%) Risk Average Yield tillScheme Name NAV Launch AUM Since Std. Sharpe Maturity (Days) Maturity

1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.

ICICI Prudential Dynamic Bond Fund - Reg - G 13.52 39976.00 428.03 -12.58 -22.22 -8.28 14.57 11.74 9.25 7.77 14.76 0.30 2675.00 7.81

Birla Sun Life Medium Term Plan - G 14.32 39897.00 534.08 4.77 0.64 19.55 13.60 12.27 10.10 8.84 9.35 0.53 N.A 10.50

Birla Sun Life Short Term Opportunities Fund - G 19.31 37735.00 401.53 7.08 2.69 19.00 12.96 12.42 10.11 6.69 8.54 0.58 N.A 10.26

Birla Sun Life Dynamic Bond Fund - Ret - DAP 14.21 39911.00 14660.80 2.46 -6.04 2.60 12.67 11.78 9.39 8.72 8.61 0.47 N.A 8.62

Birla Sun Life Dynamic Bond Fund - Ret - G 20.54 38254.00 14660.80 2.46 -6.04 2.60 12.67 11.78 9.39 8.58 8.61 0.47 N.A 8.62

ICICI Prudential Blended - Plan B - Option I - G 18.07 38503.00 948.67 -0.29 -12.12 -3.52 11.72 10.52 9.03 7.62 9.50 0.33 978.00 8.04

UTI Short Term Income Fund - Ret - G 20.92 37795.00 2280.04 5.41 -4.40 -1.41 11.56 11.25 9.51 7.66 7.93 0.46 1284.00 N.A

Annualised

Returns (%) Risk Average Yield tillScheme Name NAV Launch AUM Since Std. Sharpe Maturity (Days) Maturity

1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.

Templeton India Low Duration Fund - G 12.99 26-Jul-2010 2803.69 8.65 7.63 7.52 9.53 9.74 N.A 9.42 2.02 1.17 117.00 8.81

DWS Treasury Fund - Investment - Reg - G 13.28 09-Oct-2009 240.25 8.42 5.75 6.30 9.41 9.44 8.33 7.97 3.14 0.66 281.00 8.31

Kotak Floater - LT - Growth 19.08 13-Aug-2004 4289.57 9.86 7.54 7.31 9.37 9.48 8.87 7.56 1.85 1.15 255.00 8.45

Indiabulls Ultra Short Term Fund - G 1148.12 06-Jan-2012 615.57 8.17 6.84 7.50 9.34 9.67 N.A 9.96 1.46 1.59 164.00 8.17

DWS Money Plus Fund - Growth 16.49 14-Mar-2006 433.32 6.94 1.33 3.66 9.22 9.18 7.10 7.12 4.41 0.42 551.00 8.40

IDFC Ultra Short Term Fund - Reg - G 16.64 17-Jan-2006 1157.07 9.51 8.20 8.34 9.19 9.48 9.25 7.10 2.25 1.06 91.00 8.50

Kotak Flexi Debt Fund - Growth 18.35 07-Dec-2004 1520.79 8.91 5.91 6.46 9.18 9.07 8.21 7.37 2.11 0.82 248.00 8.55

Annualised

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