®

WISE MONEY2013: Issue 366, Week: 15th - 18th April

A Weekly Update from SMC(For private circulation only)

Bra

nd

sm

c 1

90

(Saurabh Jain)

Contents

Equity 4-7

Derivatives 8-9

Commodity 10-13

Currency 14

IPO 15

Fixed Deposit 16

Mutual Fund 17-18

EDITORIAL STAFF

Editor Saurabh Jain

Executive Editor Jagannadham Thunuguntla

+Editorial Team

Dr. R.P. Singh Nitin Murarka

Vandana Bharti Tejas Seth

Sandeep Joon Dinesh Joshi

Vineet Sood Shitij Gandhi

Dhirender Singh Bisht Subhranil Dey

Parminder Chauhan Ajay Lakra

Mudit Goyal

Content Editor Kamla Devi

Graphic Designer Pramod Chhimwal

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lobal stock markets in the week gone by traded in a narrow range. The

U.S. Federal Reserve Chief Ben S. Bernanke in a speech said that the Grecovery so far has been far away from the desired levels indicating the

continuation of the bond purchases. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has

revised its annual growth forecast for U.S. to 1.7% from 2% in its draft report on

the back of the automatic budget cuts for the year 2013. In Germany, the largest

economy of Euro Area, exports tumbled nearly 1.5% in the month of February as

the region is still struggling to overcome recession.

Chinese stocks also traded mix after the outcome of trade data for the month of

March 2013 and it suggested that the imports are growing ahead of the

expectations but at the same time the exports are falling short on the back of

weak global macro environment and demand. Japanese currency, Yen's

deceleration of nearly 22% in the last six months or so, poses a threat to the

Chinese exports. Japan's new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's efforts along with the

recent Bank of Japan's (BOJ) huge qualitative and quantitative monetary easing

to fight deflation and spur growth has so far added meaningful depreciation in

the local currency. In the latest policy meeting, BOJ have decided to purchase

bonds worth 7.5 trillion yen ($76 billion) a month for the next two years as it is

targeting a 2% inflation.

Back at home, Indian markets largely traded on a negative note on the domestic

concerns like political instability, and selling by Foreign Institutional Investors.

The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data for the month of February came at

0.6% higher than the consensus estimates that indicated for contraction after

2.4% expansion in the prior month (January). The cumulative growth in the fiscal

year 2013 till February stands at 0.9% against 3.5% in the corresponding period

last year.

IT giant, Infosys Technologies disappointed the markets with a weak set of numbers

and lower guidance for the current fiscal and the stock got hammered down heavily

on the bourses. It has been seen in the past also that markets tend to be very harsh if

the results outcome tend to mismatch the estimates. The markets would be closely

watching the trade policy slated to be announced next week on 18th April to get the

sense of the government initiatives to boost exports and alleviate the concerns

pertaining to the widening current account deficit and growth.

On the commodities front, the U.S. economic recovery is gaining momentum,

which has spurred speculation that the Federal Reserve may pare stimulus. It

injected negative sentiments towards gold. Even the latest data from the SPDR

Gold Trust showed that the holdings fell. It may trade down in the coming days.

Some better than expected data raised optimism in the market, which assisted

commodities to trade with some marginal gain overall though, we got some

bearish indication as well at the same time. The International Energy Agency cut

its global oil-demand forecast. Even OPEC cut its demand outlook and now as per

OPEC, global consumption will rise by 800,000 barrels a day this year, less than

the 840,000 estimate last month. It may cap the upside of crude oil. The expiry of

the April contracts of agri commodities in NCDEX may add some volatility

throughout the week. GDP of China, CPI of euro zone, UK, Newzealand, Canada

and US, German Zew survey, interest rate decision by Canada are a few important

economic releases and events, which will impact the commodities prices.

From The Desk Of Editor

Due to Good Friday, Week under consideration is from 25th to 26th March, 2013

4

NOTES:

1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of "Morning Mantra ".

2) S1 & S2 indicate first support & second support respectively & R1 & R2 indicate first resistance and second resistance respectively.

3) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the stock. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.

TREND SHEET

STOCKS CLOSING TREND DATE RATE S1 R1 S2 R2 CL.

PRICE TREND TREND S/L

CHANGEDCHANGED

SENSEX 18542 DOWN 26.03.13 18705 19300 19500 19730

S&P NIFTY 5594 DOWN 26.03.13 5642 5850 5900 5950

CNX IT 7200 UP 17.01.13 6869 7050 6850 6750

CNX BANK 11307 DOWN 21.03.13 11238 11600 11800 12000

ACC 1143 DOWN 17.01.13 1359 1230 1260 1300

BHARTIAIRTEL 275 DOWN 14.02.13 311 300 310 320

BHEL 178 DOWN 01.11.12 227 195 205 210

CIPLA 406 UP 11.04.13 406 385 375 370

DLF 247 DOWN 21.03.13 239 255 260 265

HINDALCO 90 DOWN 07.02.13 113 100 105 110

ICICI BANK 1040 DOWN 28.02.13 1040 1080 1100 1120

INFOSYS 2917 UP 17.01.13 2798 2850 2750 2700

ITC 285 UP 04.03.11 172 290 285 280

L&T 1380 DOWN 07.02.13 1496 1450 1480 1500

MARUTI 1428 DOWN 14.02.13 1485 1380 1420 1450

NTPC 143 DOWN 13.12.12 151 - 150 - 155 160

ONGC 307 DOWN 21.03.13 298 315 320 325

RELIANCE 771 DOWN 28.02.13 814 840 860 870

TATASTEEL 299 DOWN 07.02.13 390 340 350 360

NEWS

MEETING DATE SYMBOL PURPOSE

16-APR-13 RELIANCE RESULTS/DIVIDEND

17-APR-13 HCLTECH RESULTS/DIVIDEND

17-APR-13 YESBANK RESULTS/DIVIDEND

17-APR-13 TCS RESULTS/DIVIDEND

18-APR-13 TINPLATE RESULTS/DIVIDEND

18-APR-13 MRF RESULTS

18-APR-13 MINDTREE RESULTS/DIVIDEND

18-APR-13 INDUSINDBK RESULTS/DIVIDEND

18-APR-13 CRISIL RESULTS/DIVIDEND

19-APR-13 WIPRO RESULTS/DIVIDEND

22-APR-13 ULTRACEMCO RESULTS/DIVIDEND

22-APR-13 PERSISTENT RESULTS/DIVIDEND

22-APR-13 CAIRN RESULTS

23-APR-13 M&MFIN RESULTS/DIVIDEND

23-APR-13 HDFCBANK RESULTS/DIVIDEND

24-APR-13 AXISBANK RESULTS/DIVIDEND

25-APR-13 BIOCON RESULTS/DIVIDEND

EX-DATE SYMBOL PURPOSE

16-APR-13 ABBOTINDIA DIVIDEND `17 PER SHARE

16-APR-13 RAINCOM DIVIDEND OF 1.10 PER SHARE

18-APR-13 ESABINDIA DIVIDEND 7.50 PER SHARE

18-APR-13 SKFINDIA DIVIDEND 7.50 PER SHARE

22-APR-13 HCLTECH THIRD INTERIM DIVIDEND

25-APR-13 CRISIL INTERIM DIVIDEND

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FORTHCOMING EVENTS

DOMESTIC NEWSEconomy·India's industrial output growth slipped to 0.6 percent in February as

compared to 4.3 percent in the same month last year and 2.4 percent in January 2013 due to a contraction in the infrastructure industry output and flagging demand.

·The Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) forecasts that the sales of Indian-made passenger vehicles would grow 5-7 percent during the year ending March 2014. Sales of trucks and buses are expected to increase 7-9 percent, while sales of motorcycles are seen rising in the 6-8 percent range.

Capital Goods·Siemens Ltd has bagged a 104.4 crore contract from the Bangladesh Steels

Re-Rolling Mills (BSRM) to build a gas insulated switchgear substation.Engineering·IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd has emerged as the lowest bidder for

six-laning a section of the national highway 2. The estimated cost of the project is ̀ 1,665 crore.

Pharmaceuticals·Elder Pharmaceuticals will be investing `15-20 crore over the next two-

three years for its foray into cosmetics manufacturing. The company plans to manufacture cosmetics at its existing plant in Paonta Sahib in Himachal Pardesh, which is making pharmaceutical products.

·Shasun Pharmaceuticals has entered into a licensing agreement with Switzerland-based Debiopharm for the manufacturing and commercialisation of Huperzine-A, a drug used in the treatment of the Alzheimer's disease.

Gems & Jewellery·PC Jeweller has announced that the company is opening its 31st showroom,

located at 1365-69, Pandit Bhawani Prasad Tiwari Ward, Jabalpur in the state of Madhya Pradesh.

Metal·Jindal Stainless has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with

POSCO on 10 April 2013, to mutually cooperate with each other for long-term joint business opportunities. This MoU is applicable for 3 years, which can be extended by mutual agreement.

Media & Entertainment·Eros International Media has announced a strategic tie-up with Sony Music

Entertainment, a global music giant for the music of its forthcoming film Go Goa Gone. The music of Go Goa Gone will be distributed under the co-branding of Sony Music and Eros Music labels.

Food & Dairy Products·Jubilant FoodWorks launched its commissary in Mohali to cater to the

region. The commissary will cater to all the Domino's Pizza and Dunkin' Donuts outlets in five states apart from Chandigarh, namely: Punjab, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Himachal and Jammu & Kashmir.

Information Technology·Tata Consultancy Services has signed definitive agreements for the

acquisition of 100% equity shares in Alti SA, an IT services company in France, for a value of € 75 million in an all-cash transaction. The acquisition will strengthen TCS' ability and footprint to service its customers in France and other regions in Europe.

·Educomp Solutions has announced that it has sold its entire 50% stake in the vocational training business IndiaCan, to its joint venture partner Pearson, one of the world's largest publishing and education services company.

INTERNATIONAL NEWS·US wholesale inventories dipped by 0.3 percent in February following a

downwardly revised 0.8 percent increase in January. The drop came as a surprise to economists, who had expected the inventories to rise by 0.5 percent compared to the 1.2 percent jump originally reported for the previous month.

·US initial jobless claims fell to 346,000, a decrease of 42,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 388,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to drop to 365,000 from the 385,000 originally reported for the previous week.

·US import prices fell by 0.5 percent in March following a revised 0.6 percent increase in February. The decrease in prices matched economists' estimates. The report also showed that the export prices dropped by 0.4 percent in March after rising by a revised 0.7 percent in the previous month. Economists had expected the export prices to edge up by 0.1 percent.

·House prices in the Euro area decreased at a weaker pace in the fourth quarter after recording a faster fall in the previous quarter. The House Price Index dropped 0.5 percent from the third quarter, when prices fell 0.7 percent. In the second quarter of 2012, house prices decreased by 0.2 percent.

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5

BSE SENSEX GAINERS & LOSERS TOP (% Change) NSE NIFTY GAINERS TOP & LOSERS (% Change)

SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)

SMC Trend

SMC Trend

FMCGHealthcare

FTSE 100CAC 40

Auto BankRealty

Cap GoodsCons Durable

Oil & GasPower

NasdaqDow jonesS&P 500

NikkeiStrait times

Hang SengShanghai

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY (Equity) (` Crore)

ITMetal

Down SidewaysUp

SMC Trend

Nifty BSE Midcap Nifty JuniorSensex BSE Smallcap S&P CNX 500

GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)

INDIAN INDICES (% Change)

®

0.73

0.50

-0.59

-0.33

0.75

0.49

-0.80

-0.60

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

Nifty Sensex BSE Midcap

BSE Smallcap

Nifty Junior

S&P CNX 500

2.27

1.63

0.990.89

-0.74

1.24

0.94

-1.36-1.27

-0.63

2.26

-2.00

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

Auto Index Bankex Cap Goods Index

Cons Durable Index

FMCG Index

Healthcare Index

IT Index Metal Index

Oil & Gas Index

Power Index

Realty Index

3.01

2.06

2.58

5.58

0.27

1.72

-0.26

2.66

3.06

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

Nasdaq Comp.

Dow Jones S&P 500 Nikkei Strait Times Hang Seng Shanghai Comp.

FTSE 100 CAC 40

8.99

6.015.23 4.89

4.50

-4.47

-3.46-2.71

-2.24 -2.06

-6.00

-4.00

-2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

Tata Motors

DLF JP Associates

Cipla Lupin Asian Paints

Tata Steel

BPCL ONGC ITC

8.95

4.784.19

2.79 2.42

-11.53

-3.18-2.47 -2.13 -1.83

-15.00

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

Tata Motors

Cipla ICICI Bank

HDFC Bank

TCS Wipro Tata Steel

O N G C ITCHero

Motocorp

-122.70 -104.20

72.90

-37.20

147.70

--700.00700.00

--600.00600.00

--500.00500.00

--400.00400.00

--300.00300.00

--200.00200.00

--100.00100.00

0.000.00

100.00100.00

200.00200.00

-618.90

Friday Monday Tuesday

FII Activity MF Activity

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1 year.

Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis

6®

Source: Company Website Reuters Capitaline

Face Value (`) 1.00

52 Week High/Low 138.50 / 73.25

M.Cap ( Cr.) 2567.78

EPS ( ) 7.30

P/E Ratio (times) 10.64

P/B Ratio (times) 1.74

Stock Exchange BSE

`

`

` in cr

Particular Mar 2012 Mar 2013E Mar 2014E

Revenue 5,175.02 5,558.61 5,884.84

EBITDA 336.47 271.98 359.87

EBIT 302.51 274.81 362.22

Net Profit 162.06 242.13 269.93

EPS 4.90 7.44 7.90

BVPS 44.66 50.12 55.87

ROE 2.53 13.67 15.20

VALUE PARAMETERS

% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale in one year time. ·Order book of the company stands at ̀ 4210 crores ·At present, it has around 6,000 distributors across

( 4137 crore as of end of Sept 2012). A bulk of the the country. It aims to cross 7,500 of such touch order book is from the domestic markets, and points in the near term. The company would spend primarily from the IT & ITES segments. Out of the about three per cent of its revenue on marketing total order book, 2261 crore is from the domestic during the summer.market (53.7% of total) and the rest 1949 is from ·Voltas has an internal target bid margin of 7-8%,

but it has been able to bid only at 4-5% rate in the the international market (46.3% of the total). current environment in the international market. ·On the back of its successful entry into Mozambique, With cost escalation claims, the company plans to the company has observed good traction in the reach at the target 7-8% margin level, if the bids mining machinery business.are won at 4-5% rate.·The Engineering Products & Services (EPS) segment

has performed better than the company's Valuationexpectations. The EPS segment has a potential to grow The company has multiple business opportunities within better, but is seen impacted due to the continuing ban each segment and is therefore in a position to get on the mining sector in various states of India. Also the benefit at each position of Economic cycles. Considering textile machinery was impacted due to a high the improving prospects and a consistent growth in volatility of Cotton Prices and the interest rate earnings, we expect the stock to see a price target of 97 environment. However, it expects the New Year to be in one year time frame on a two year average P/E of stable for the EPS segment. 12.25x on FY14 (E) EPS of 7.90.

·Unitary Cooling Products (UCC) segment also performed better than the company's expectations. Since May 2012, Voltas has managed to sustain the market leadership position and its current market share stands at 18.5%. New products will be launched in a run-up to the summer season.

·During the last two quarters the company has been in the process of re-organizing businesses, not seeking an increase in the turnover at the expense of margins. The company's order of priority in bidding for new business is Cash flow, Margins and then the turnover of top-line.

·The International Electro-Mechanical Projects (EMPS) segment is going through a cyclical phase and would work its way back to 8-10% margin level

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P/E Chart

VOLTAS LIMITED CMP: 77.60 Upside: 25%Target Price: 97

Face Value (`) 10.00

52 Week High/Low 367.50 / 207.50

M.Cap ( Cr.) 6793.63

EPS ( ) 44.04

P/E Ratio (times) 5.29

P/B Ratio (times) 0.61

Stock Exchange BSE

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VALUE PARAMETERS

% OF SHARE HOLDING

ORIENTAL BANK OF COMMERCE CMP: 232.85 Upside: 20%Target Price: 279

Investment Rationale outstanding restructured assets to 11798 crore at end December 2012. ·Business mix grew by 9% YoY to `292118 crore in

the quarter ended December 2012, driven by 12% ·Capital Adequacy ratio increased to 12.25% with Tier I growth in advances to 123626 crore at the end of 9.14% in quarter ended December 2012 against December 2012, while the deposits increased by 12.12% with Tier I of 9.51% at end December 2011. 8% to 168492 crore. ·Provision coverage ratio has declined to 70% at the

·Current Account Savings Account (CASA) deposits end December 2012 from 71% at the end grew 16% to 40229 crore on the back of 23% September 2012.growth in the CA deposits at 10505 crore. CASA ·The bank plans to add 100-125 branches more. The ratio improved to 23.9% at end December 2012 bank had added 375 branches in the last two compared to 22.3% at end December 2011. years. Currently, it has a network of around 2,000

branches.·Net Interest Margin (NIM) improved to 2.84% in Q3FY2013 compared to 2.79% in Q2FY2013. NIM is Valuationexpected to increase to 2.95% in Q4FY2013 with The bank is expected to improve its earnings going the overall NIM for FY2013 expected increase to forward considering the business growth and 2.85% from 2.79% in FY2012. Bank intends to improvement in Asset Quality. Management expects improve NIM above 3.0% for FY2014. to achieve 15 per cent growth in bottom-line this

·The fresh slippages from restructured book to NPA fiscal. On the estimated book value of 457.69 for stood at 305.92 crore for the quarter ended FY14E and current P/BV of 0.61, we expect the stock December 2012, contributed by textile account to see a price target of 279 in one year time frame.with the exposure of Rs.100 crore. The cumulative slippages from restructured asset book stood at 806 crore at end December 2012.

·Gross Non-Performing Assets (NPA) increased 14% YoY to 3689.96 crore at end December 2012. %GNPA was highest at 2.98% at end December 2012 against 2.92% a year ago as well as a quarter ago. Net NPA increased 27% YoY to 2610.55 crore in quarter ended December 2012. %NNPA stood at 2.14% against 1.89% a year ago and 2.04% a quarter ago.

·The bank has restructured 741 crore of advances in the quarter under review taking the total

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` in cr

Particular Mar 2012 Mar 2013E Mar 2014E

Net Total Income 5456.04 6391.52 7307.31

Pre-Tax Profit 1425.76 1901.65 2376.08

Net Profit 1141.56 1435.08 1743.06

EPS 39.13 49.26 59.86

BYPS 409.33 411.09 457.69

ROE 9.91 12.36 14.03

P/BV Chart

Charts by Spider Software India Ltd

7

EQUITY

The stock closed at 712.25 on 11th April 2013. It made a 52-week low at 551.55

on 14th May 2012 and a 52-week high of 1221.90 on 13th November 2012. The

200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly chart is

currently at ̀ 978.59.

After falling drastically, it finally paused at its lower levels and from there it took

its upward journey (in the third quarter of 2012). It also traded on a positive note

in the last week with good volumes, which indicates that in coming days it may

extend the upward moment and reach our desired targets. One can Buy in the

range of 708-712 levels with closing below stop loss of 685 levels for the target of

740-750 levels.

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Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months

The stock closed at 62.55 on 11th April 2013. It made a 52-week low at 49.70

on 22th March 2013 and 52-week high of 140.25 on 06th July 2012. The 200 days

Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly chart is currently

at 136.42.

It could be seen on the chart that there was tremendous selling in this counter,

and it ended near to its yearly low of 2009. In the last few weeks, there was

marginal gain in this scrip with rise in price and volumes indicating that it may

have bottomed out and will be looking further for upward moment in near term.

One can Buy in the range of 59-61 levels with closing below stop loss of 53 levels

for the target of 72-75 levels.

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The stock closed at 31.00 on 11th April 2013. It made a 52-week low at 26.10

on 28st March 2013 and 52-week high of 53.15 on 05th October 2012. The 200

days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly chart is

currently at 20.53.

After a significant fall till 26 levels, finally it bounced back with a sharp rise in

the price and volumes, indicating fresh buying. Also, it negated the negative

sentiment of the major index last week and traded in a range, which justifies its

inclination to continue its upward journey in the coming weeks. One can Buy in

the range of 29-30 levels with closing below stop loss of 27 levels for the target

of 36-38 levels.

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FINANTECH

JYOTI STRUCUTRE

HINDOIL EXP

®

RELCAPITALBuy APR.330 CALL 8.70Buy APR.310 PUT 6.00

Lot size: 1000Upside BEP: 344.70Downside BEP: 295.30Max. Profit: UnlimitedMax. Loss: 14700.00 (14.70*1000)`

HINDUNILVR

Buy APR.490. CALL 4.95

Lot size: 500

BEP: 494.95

Max. Profit: Unlimited

Max. Loss: `2475.00 (4.95*500)

DERIVATIVES

BASIS GAP IN NIFTY

GODREJIND (APR FUTURE)

Buy: Above 313

Target:

Stop loss: 310

`

`320

`

FEDERALBNK (APR FUTURE)

441

Target: `432

Stop loss: `445

Sell: Below `

OPTIONSTRATEGY

FUTURESTRATEGY

HINDPETRO

Buy APR.300. CALL 6.00

Sell APR.310. CALL 3.80

Lot size: 1000

BEP: 302.20

Max. Profit: 7800.00 (7.80*1000)

Max. Loss: 2200.00 (2.20*1000)

`

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DISHTV (APR FUTURE)

Sell: Below 67

Target: 63

Stop loss: 69

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Nifty VIX is trading around current year high level of 17%. The market expects further rise in volatility. If the Index slips below the 5500 level, it could gradually slide to 5300 levels. Conversely, a sustained move beyond 5650 levels should see Nifty climbing 5800 levels. Technically, the Index continues to trade below all its moving averages, of 200-day and 100-day EMAs, indicating a bearish scenario. On the flip side, sustaining 5500 levels is extremely crucial. Nifty basis remained in the premium throughout the week. However, the basis decreased to a premium of 10.00 points from 25.00 points premium over the week. For the May series, the premium fell to 30.00 points from 45.00 points. The PCR OI for the current series fell from 1.00 to 0.90 levels, on account of heavy addition in OTM calls. Among Nifty options, the 5700-strike call has the highest open interest of 75 lacs shares and 5600-strike put which have OI of over 60 lakh shares .The options build-up in the 5700 strike indicates a stiff resistance in the medium term. The implied volatility (IV) of calls closed at 16.47% while that for put options rose to close at 17.50%. Overall market cost-of-carry decreased last week on the back of addition in open interest indicating short buildup. The Nifty VIX rose for the week to close at 16.90. It has seen a strong base around 15.00 in the last few weeks. On the technical front, Nifty is trading below its 200-EMA and is likely to head towards it next crucial support zone of 5400-5450. It is likely to face selling pressure on every bounce to 5600-5650 zones, above which one can expect a short term reversal in trend. It can come under intense selling pressure if global markets start their correction which is overdue.

WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

NIFTY TOTAL OPEN INTEREST (in share)

FIIs ACTIVITY IN F&O IN LAST TEN SESSIONS

(Derivative segment) `(Cr)

FIIs ACTIVITY IN F&O IN LAST WEEK

(Derivative segment)

BULLISH STRATEGY VOLATILITY STRATEGY

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

®

267450621450

1004950

2761350

5814550

7445800

69725007307300

5066700

2009900

1604350

4551850

5074200

70881507368300

6293450

2679800

1335800

787300 809350

418000688600

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

8000000

5200 5300 5400 5500 5600 5700 5800 5900 6000 6100 6200

Call Put

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

26-Mar 28-Mar 01-Apr 02-Apr 03-Apr 04-Apr 05-Apr 08-Apr 09-Apr 10-Apr 11-Apr

BUY

88.2%

SELL

11.8%

724.09

158.80

1585.97

586.47

167.01

-516.81

-14.04

1706.67

95.07

2163.38

-1000.00

-500.00

0.00

500.00

1000.00

1500.00

2000.00

2500.00

28-Mar 01-Apr 02-Apr 03-Apr 04-Apr 05-Apr 08-Apr 09-Apr 10-Apr 11-Apr

8

9

BHARTIARTL 6070000 6890000 13.51 0.71 1.09 0.38 33.31 29.39 -3.92

DLF 12438000 12454000 0.13 0.44 0.74 0.30 40.13 30.70 -9.43

HINDALCO 36474000 34692000 -4.89 0.53 0.61 0.08 31.31 25.71 -5.60

HINDUNILVR 4762000 5866500 23.19 1.15 0.93 -0.22 21.11 18.02 -3.09

ICICIBANK 7724750 8473250 9.69 0.53 0.72 0.19 26.61 21.43 -5.18

IDEA 11164000 13404000 20.06 0.41 0.69 0.28 30.94 29.41 -1.53

INFY 2127125 2824000 32.76 0.76 1.08 0.32 32.92 40.94 8.02

ITC 15282000 19393000 26.90 0.49 0.47 -0.02 19.08 20.33 1.25

JPASSOCIAT 57752000 56160000 -2.76 0.58 0.65 0.07 41.71 34.00 -7.71

NTPC 12752000 13296000 4.27 0.24 0.26 0.02 19.45 17.31 -2.14

ONGC 7141000 8557000 19.83 0.70 0.50 -0.20 24.15 19.80 -4.35

RANBAXY 2958500 3165000 6.98 0.94 0.81 -0.13 24.74 21.38 -3.36

RCOM 35320000 39056000 10.58 0.56 0.90 0.34 51.98 44.12 -7.86

RELIANCE 8783000 8978750 2.23 0.62 0.60 -0.02 23.27 22.75 -0.52

NIFTY 16649650 19832000 19.11 0.77 0.94 0.17 14.88 16.07 1.19

SAIL 15016000 14988000 -0.19 0.44 0.37 -0.07 32.65 26.29 -6.36

SBIN 4372750 4680750 7.04 0.65 0.65 0.00 24.94 39.39 14.45

TATASTEEL 15717000 18112000 15.24 0.52 0.45 -0.07 30.79 27.86 -2.93

UNITECH 49170000 50700000 3.11 0.39 0.38 -0.01 51.80 44.98 -6.82

IMPORTANT INDICATORS OF NIFTY AND OTHER ACTIVE FUTURE CONTRACTS

OPEN INTEREST PCR RATIO IMPLIED VOLATILITY

SCRIPTS PREV. CURRENT % PREV. CURRENT PREV. CURRENT WEEK WEEK CHANGE WEEK WEEK CHANGE WEEK WEEK CHANGE

DERIVATIVES

Put Call Ratio Analysis : The Put-Call open interest ratio of Nifty has increased to

0.94 from 0.77. At the end of the week, the maximum stocks had a negative of

change in put call open interest ratio.

Implied Volatility Analysis : The Implied Volatility (IV) for Nifty futures this week

has increased to 16.07% from 14.88%. The IV of the stock futures has changed this

week ranging from -9.43% to 14.45%.

Open Interest Analysis : The open interest for the index at the end of this week

has increased by 19.11% as compared to the previous week. All future stocks saw

changes in their open interest ranging from -4.89% to 32.76%. INFY has the

maximum increase in open interest as compared to other stocks.

Statistical Analysis·

Open 5586.00 High 5622.40

Low 5480.30 Close 5594.80

NIFTY & IV CHART NIFTY ANALYSIS

®

14

15

16

17

18

5400

5500

5600

5700

05-Apr 08-Apr 09-Apr 10-Apr 11-Apr

Nifty Close IV

10

Lack of safe haven demand and growing signs of U.S. economic recovery gaining momentum spurred the speculation that the Federal Reserve may pare stimulus, which is keeping the bullion counter under selling pressure. Gold is near the key support of $1530-1550 in COMEX. It can trade in the range of 28700-29600 in MCX. The movement of the local currency rupee will also affect the direction of bullions as it can trade in the range of 54-55 levels in MCX. White metal silver can trade in the range of 49500-53500. Gold-silver ratio has recently declined from 57.8 to nearly 56.3 as gold fell at faster pace than silver. The investors will also be watching the ongoing tensions in the Korean Peninsula, which can lead to the safe haven demand in Gold. The Korean peninsula is rife with tensions over the belligerent threats issued by Pyongyang. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange traded product backed by bullion, shrank to 1,181.42 metric tonnes last week, which is the lowest since May 2010. Assets have declined by 12.5 percent in 2013 as the prospects for recovery sent U.S. stocks to record highs. Meanwhile, the investors in Europe are losing their appetite for gold bars as a shield against the region's debt woes, with even the crisis in Cyprus last month failing to reignite major buying. Hedge funds and money managers have increased their bearish bets on silver futures and options, switching to a net short position on the market for the first time since 2006.

BULLIONS

ENERGY COMPLEX

Crude oil counter is expected to trade with a sideways bias on mixed fundamentals. The IEA trimmed its forecasts for demand in 2013 for a third month, predicting the weakest consumption in Europe in almost three decades. Investors should keep a close eye on the growing tensions in North and South Korea as any escalation in tension will push the oil markets higher. Crude oil prices can trade in the range of 4900-5200 in MCX and $91-95 in NYMEX. Brent crude oil premium to the WTI narrowed to the smallest in more than 14 months last week to nearly $11 as Brent fell at faster pace than WTI. The IEA cut its estimate by 45,000 barrels a day, predicting that the daily world consumption will increase by a “subdued” 795,000 barrels, or 0.9 percent, to 90.58 million this year. Natural gas prices can continue their upside momentum as it can test 235-240 in MCX. Lower than normal temperatures will boost heating demand in the Midwest through this week, according to a daily forecast from the Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Maryland. Recently, natural gas rose to a 20 month high in New York after a government report showed that U.S. stockpiles fell more than expected last week. The Energy Information Administration stated that supplies dropped 14 billion cubic feet to 1.673 trillion. Inventories were 3.8 percent below the five year average in the week ended April 5, compared with 2.1 percent a week earlier. A deficit to year-earlier levels widened to 32.46 percent from 31.59 percent a week earlier, a record in the EIA data going back to 2005.

In the days to come, a word of caution might get linked up with soybean futures, as the counter may show some volatile movements with profit booking from higher levels. The exporters are shying away as the recent rise has made the Indian soymeal about 5,000 rupees ($91.7) per tonne more expensive than global levels. Indian soymeal prices are now around 38,000 rupees per tonne ($670 per tonne), a premium of $180/tonne over the South American supplies. There are reports that the export orders for a further two shiploads of soymeal of about 50,000 metric tonnes each have been cancelled. The forward month contract (May) is likely to consolidate in the range of 3800-4130 levels. In the international markets, the U.S soybean futures may continue to show some bounce back supported by the tightness in the global supplies. The concerns of a port strike in Brazil might delay the soybean shipments & help the counter to move higher. The soy basis in U.S mid-west is the highest ever for this time of the year at many processing plants as the growers hold tightly to the supplies remaining from the last year's harvest in the hope of prices rising during the summer months. Mustard futures (May) is expected to show some recovery taking support above 3540 levels. Sustained demand from millers & lower arrivals may check the downside. Refined soy oil futures (May) is likely to trade sideways in the range of 685-710 levels. There is a steady demand from the stockists in an expectation of higher enquiries for the marriage season.

OIL AND OILSEEDS

Base metals complex may remain on volatile note amid mixed fundamentals. Red metal Copper may move in the range of 403-425. Copper prices are under pressure as the demand from China is not able to absorb rising global supplies. Recently China copper imports rebounded, with unwrought copper jumping 7.2 percent to 319,603 tonnes in March. Last week the copper LME inventories climbed to 590,175 tonnes, highest since September 2003 and the Chinese imports of unwrought copper and products fell 29 percent to 967,632 tonnes in the first quarter from a year ago. Lead can trade in the range of 108-116. Premiums to secure the spot lead deliveries in Europe have dropped by close to 30 percent as the panic buying seen late last year has subsided. Nickel prices can trade in the range of 850-905 in MCX. Nickel's fortunes are inextricably tied to the stainless steel sector because it accounts for around 65 percent of the global nickel usage. Aluminum prices may move in the range of 99-104 levels in MCX. Recently China's state stockpilers have issued the long awaited tenders to buy 300,000 tonnes of primary aluminum. The domestic price of aluminium in China has fallen to their lowest since July 2010. Zinc prices can hover in the range of 99-105 in MCX. China is lacking appetir of zinc metal and this has led to heavy inventories pile up. Though on a year to date basis the inventories have come down in LME but the proportion of the decline is much less.

BASE METALS

Turmeric futures (May) will possibly extend its upside trend surpassing the 7200 levels. Bullish sentiments prevailing at the spot markets for the demand from Assam, Bihar, Delhi, Odisha and Punjab may lend support to the counter on the national bourse. In the recent days, spot prices for the hybrid variety topped Rs 10,000/qtl. The arrivals are also witnessing a slower pace due to the hot weather, which is preventing the growers from bringing their produce to the markets. The Nizamabad market is closed and it will open on 15th April. Pepper futures (May) is expected to witness a downfall towards 35200 levels, facing resistance near 36000 levels. In the current scenario, there is a selling pressure over the counter as fresh harvest is coming from Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. On the international platform, Indian black pepper quoted at $6,900/ tonne CNF New York & the May shipment is being offered at $6,750 per tonne C&F, while Vietnam Asta is quoted at $6,625 a tonne (C&F) US April-May first half shipments. Jeera futures (May) is likely to consolidate in the range of 13500-14150 levels. The counter is getting buying support from the retailers, exporters and the wholesale kirana markets. Market participants are showing interest for lower level buying in anticipation that the export demand may increase after June – July month. Chilli futures may remain in the bearish zone owing to a lack of demand due to the onset of peak summer season. Besides, arrivals coming at the spot market are of inferior quality.

SPICES

OTHER COMMODITIES

Wheat futures (May) is likely to stay in a consolidation in the range of 1380-1420 levels. According to the latest report of the USDA, weak export demand has resulted in several tenders being cancelled or only partially allocated in the recent months. The exporters are not getting export parity from Rajasthan and Gujarat as FoB kandla is around Rs 1570/qtl ($287.91/MT), whereas Russia and Ukraine are offering wheat at $265-275/MT. Spot Prices at Lawrence Road, Delhi are witnessing a downside trend pressurized by new crop arrivals. Kapas futures (Apr) will possibly trade in the range of 900-945 levels. As reported by the U.S Dept. of Agriculture, the 2012/13 world cotton estimates showed higher beginning and ending stocks. Also, India's 2013/14 cotton production is forecast at 34.5 million 170 kg bales & exports are forecasted at 7.5 million 170 kg bales, down 15% from the revised 2012/13 estimate. In news, the Commission for Agriculture Cost and Price proposed to increase the minimum support prices of kapas by Rs 100/qtl. Sugar futures (May) is expected to remain stable, taking support above 2940 levels. In the current scenario, market participants are getting interested to make a lower level buying ahead of the peak summer season, eyeing the demand during festivities such as Vishu & Ram Navami. A “Sell on rise” scenario may continue to prevail over mentha oil futures owing to higher supplies at the spot market. The bearish trend in the forward month contract (May) will possibly get extended breaching the 970 levels.

®

Closing as on 11.04.13

11

NOTES : 1) Buy / Sell 25% of Commodity at S1/R1 respectively & rest 75% at S2/R2 respectively.2) S1 & S2 indicate first support & second support & R1 & R 2 indicate first resistance & second resistance. 3) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the commodity. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly

basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.4) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of Daily report- commodities.

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

EXCHANGE CONTRACT CLOSING DATE TREND

CHANGED

SOYABEAN (MAY) 3966.00 07.03.13 UP 3421.50 3700.00 - 3600.00 - 3500.00

JEERA (MAY) 13795.00 11.04.13 UP 13795.00 12000.00 - 11500.00 - 11000.00

PEPPER(MAY) 35635.00 27.03.13 SIDEWAYS - - - - - -

RED CHILLI (JUNE) 6594.00 11.04.13 SIDEWAYS - - - - - -

RM SEEDS (MAY) 3586.00 11.04.13 UP 3586.00 3200.00 - 3100.00 - 3000.00

MENTHA OIL (APRIL) 1023.00 21.03.13 DOWN 1141.30 - 1140.00 - 1180.00 1220.00

CARDAMOM (MAY) 870.10 28.02.13 DOWN 965.00 - 920.00 - 950.00 990.00

SILVER (MAY) 51674.00 20.12.12 DOWN 57351.00 - 54000.00 - 55000.00 56000.00

GOLD (JUNE ) 29184.00 14.02.13 DOWN 30463.00 - 29800.00 - 30200.00 30400.00

COPPER (APRIL) 411.90 20.12.12 DOWN 432.95 - 420.00 - 430.00 440.00

LEAD (APRIL) 112.65 21.03.13 DOWN 118.45 - 118.00 - 121.00 124.00

ZINC (APRIL) 102.40 21.03.13 DOWN 105.65 - 108.00 - 110.00 112.00

NICKEL(APRIL) 881.20 21.02.13 DOWN 920.30 - 925.00 - 940.00 960.00

ALUMINUM(APRIL) 102.00 21.02.13 DOWN 112.95 - 107.00 - 110.00 114.00

CRUDE OIL (MAY) 5129.00 27.03.13 UP 5261.00 5050.00 - 4950.00 - 4900.00

NATURAL GAS (APRIL) 224.80 28.02.13 UP 191.10 212.00 - 206.00 - 200.00

TREND RATE TREND S1 R1 S2 R2 CLOSING

PRICE CHANGED STOP/LOSS*

TREND SHEET

COMMODITY

SOYABEAN NCDEX (MAY) contract closed at `3966.00 on 11th April '13. The contract made its high of

4136.00 on 11th April '13 and a low of 3044.00 on 29th January '13. The 18-day Exponential Moving

Average of the commodity is currently at 3809. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 65. One can Sell in the

range 3950-3970 with the stop loss of 4010 for a target of 3850.

` `

`

` `

NICKEL MCX (APRIL) contract closed at 881.20 on 11th April '13. The contract made its high of 1003.8

on 15th February '13 and a low of 845.30 on 6th April '13.The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the

Commodity is currently at 895.

On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 36.One can Buy in the

range 875-865 with the stop loss of 835 for target of 950.

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NATURAL GAS MCX (APRIL) contract closed at 224.80 on 11th April '13.The contract made its high of Rs

234.80 on 6th April '13 and a low of 212.60 on 18th March '13.The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of

the Commodity is currently at 220.

On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 63. One can Sell in the

range 228-230 with the stop loss of 233 for a target of 222.

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®

SOYABEAN NCDEX (MAY)

NICKEL MCX (APRIL)

NATURAL GAS MCX (APRIL)

12

COMMODITY

NEWS DIGEST

Overall commodities performed well as compared to last week on lower level buying. CRB also

recovered to some extent. Optimism returned after the Fed statements and equity market doing well.

Hence, we saw some selling pressure in the bullion counter, especially in gold as its safe haven appeal

eroded. The speculators offloaded their positions in silver in tandem with a weak global trend.

However, it traded in a range. Industrial metals traded mix. Copper and lead saw some jump in the

prices whereas the rest of the metals viz zinc, nickel and aluminum closed the week on a negative

note. Besides strong domestic demand from battery-makers, a firm trend at the LME influenced lead

prices last week. In the energy counter, crude was up whereas natural gas prices were down on profit

booking at higher side. After a nonstop rally of seven weeks, natural gas looked exhausted. Crude oil

showed some upside on firm movements in the equity market. Although International Energy Agency

forecast on last Thursday that global demand for oil would grow by 795,000 barrels per day to a total of

90.6 million barrels (mb/d), an estimate that was just slightly lower than its previous outlook, a

decline in Europe partially offset growth elsewhere. It was the third month running that the IEA revised

its 2013 demand estimate to a lower level from a forecast in January of 90.8 mb/d. On Thursday, crude

saw a steep decline and gave a negative closing.

Most of the agri commodities traded up. In the oil seeds and edible oil counter, it was only soyabean in

which buying stimulated on fresh buying by vanaspati millers amid a firm global trend. Crude palm oil

traded down in both the domestic and the international markets whereas refined soy oil traded flat.

Smooth availability and new crop arrivals pressurized the mustard prices in the domestic market.

Spices complex traded mix. Pepper, turmeric, jeera and coriander gave some buying opportunities to

the traders whereas chilly and cardamom traded with weak sentiments. Cardamom was down on

adequate stocks on increased arrivals from producing regions against subdued demand in the spot

market. Jeera prices rose after participants built up fresh speculative positions on the back of export

demand. Pick up in overseas demand helped jeera prices to rise at futures trade but the expectations

of higher production and supplies from the new season crop, kept gains limited. Sugar traded firm in

the domestic market on summer demand and technical support.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)

COMMODITY UNIT DIFFERENCE

QTY. QTY.

BARLEY MT 100 577 477

CASTOR SEED MT 126812 123546 -3266

CHANA MT 3209 6714 3505

CHILLI MT 7034 8803 1769

COTTONSEED OILCAKE MT 147661 149368 1707

MAIZE MT 5310 2949 -2361

RAPE MUSTARD SEED MT 1807 7013 5206

SOYA BEAN SEEDS MT 10711 10402 -309

SUGAR S KOL MT 2901 1411 -1490

SUGAR M MT 14581 18418 3837

WHEAT MT 4348 3494 -854

03.04.13 10.04.13 COMMODITY UNIT DIFFERENCE

QTY. QTY.

CARDAMOM MT 47.20 52.40 5.20

COTTON BALES 129500.00 142300.00 12800.00

GOLD KGS 1095.00 466.00 -629.00

GOLD MINI KGS 115.20 327.60 212.40

GOLD GUINEA KGS 279.41 283.71 4.30

MENTHA OIL KGS 763815.90 692161.45 -71654.45

MILD STEEL MT 4809.56 4809.56 0.00

SILVER (30 KG Bar) KGS 89499.82 73590.95 -15908.87

04.04.13 11.04.13

·Euro zone sentiment fell for a second consecutive

month in April due to concerns over the Cyprus

bailout.

·Nickel stocks held in the London Metal Exchange

(LME) warehouse system hit a fresh all-time high

of 167,700 tonnes last week.

·China aims to shut down 7.8 million tonnes of

outdated steel capacity this year.

·China Crude oil imports totalled 23.05 million

tonnes in March, up 10.9 percent from February's

20.78 million.

·The Government of India has permitted export of

8,587 tonne raw sugar under its tariff-rate quota

to the U.S.

·As on 1 April 2013, Government of India has

242.07 Lakh tonnes of wheat in its Central Pool

Stock.

·Cotton Export from India, in the month of March-

13 stood around 13.07 lakh bales with Import

around 0.55 lakh bales.

·According to the Solvent Extractors' Association

(SEA), oilmeal export was down 32% in March at

430,407 tonnes against 628,337 tonnes in the

same period last year.

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)

®

NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change) MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

2.52

1.561.39

0.820.73

-2.18

-1.77

-1.01

-0.78-0.63

-3.00

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

POTATO KAPASKHALI COPPER SILVER 1000

STEEL RPR

CARDAMOM GOLD BR. CRUDE OIL

ALUMINIUM COTTON

6.83

2.67 2.612.22 2.14

-3.58 -3.48

-1.84

-1.32-0.99

-6.00

-4.00

-2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

TURMERIC MAIZE RABI SOYAMEAL SOYABEAN CORIANDER BARLEY RED CHILLI GOLD NEW SHANKAR KAPAS OIL

SUGAR…….FINALLY GOT FREEDOM

13

SPOT PRICES (% change)

COMMODITY

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)

COMMODITY STOCK POSITION STOCK POSITION DIFFERENCE

ALUMINIUM 5212075 5202900 -9175

COPPER 572325 587925 15600

NICKEL 166038 167700 1662

LEAD 261425 260250 -1175

ZINC 1162025 1133650 -28375

04.04.13 11.04.13

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT UNIT 05.04.13 11.04.13 CHANGE (%)

Soya CBOT MAY Cent per Bushel 1361.75 1402.00 2.96

Maize CBOT MAY Cent per Bushel 629.00 651.25 3.54

CPO BMD JUNE MYR per MT 2359.00 2353.00 -0.25

Sugar LIFFE MAY 10 cents per MT 504.50 517.50 2.58

COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT CHANGE%

ALUMINIUM LME 3 MONTHS 1887.00 1898.00 0.58

COPPER LME 3 MONTHS 7407.00 7610.00 2.74

LEAD LME 3 MONTHS 2045.00 2084.00 1.91

NICKEL LME 3 MONTHS 15950.00 16270.00 2.01

ZINC LME 3 MONTHS 1884.00 1914.00 1.59

GOLD COMEX JUNE 1575.90 1564.90 -0.70

SILVER COMEX MAY 2722.00 2769.70 1.75

LIGHT CRUDE OIL NYMEX MAY 92.70 93.51 0.87

NATURAL GAS NYMEX MAY 4.13 4.14 0.34

05.04.13 11.04.13

PRICES OF METALS IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)

The Central government has finally decontrolled the `80,000 crore sugar

industries. Sugar mills are now free from their obligation to supply sugar at cheap

rates to the states for the public distribution system, or PDS (known as levy sugar).

But freedom is still partial and the new arrangement will be valid for only two years

and also that the reimbursement will be capped at a purchase price of 32 a kg.

The sugar sector was highly regulated as sugar is a politically sensitive commodity.

The sector was brought under strict regulations 50 years ago in 1963. Through the

release mechanism, the Centre fixes the sugar quota that can be sold in the open

market. Under the levy system, it asks mills to contribute 10 per cent of their

output to run ration shops costing the industry 3,000 crore a year. Currently, the

Centre buys sugar from mills at about 20 per kg and sells it to ration card holders

at 13.50 per kg that has not been revised since 2001-02.

In October 2012, the expert panel headed by PMEAC chairman, C Rangarajan, had

recommended an immediate removal of the two major controls—regulated release

mechanism and levy sugar obligation.

Some facts about decontrolling sugar industry

·The removal of release mechanism would help mills manage inventories and

cash-flows better.

·The abolition of levy sugar system would result in liquidity of around of

3,000 crore annually to more than 500 sugar mills that it currently incurs on

selling cheaper sugar to the Centre for running PDS.

·The move is also going to lead to an additional subsidy burden of 3,100 crore

on the government, leading to an overall bill of 5,300 crore annually at

present rates and volumes of supply.

·According to a mechanism approved by CCEA, states will now purchase sugar

from the open market through a transparent bidding process and sell it cheap

through ration shops. The difference between the two prices will be borne by

the Centre.

·The government will bear the difference between the ex-mill price of 32 per

kg and retail sugar price of PDS at 13.50 per kg.

·If the difference between market price and ration price increases in thetwo

years (up to September 2014), the extra burden would have to be borne by

the states.

·But the states may refuse to pay more than this price, as they will have to pick

up the tab, even if market prices trend higher.

·CCEA also did not take a decision on raising the import duty to compensate for

the increased subsidy.

·Before the decontrol, mills had to sell 10% of their total production to the

government at 19.01 per kg, a fraction of the wholesale market price of 34

per kg, for public distribution through ration shops.

·The sugar mills would be free to make commercial decisions about when to

sell, how much to sell and the prices of sales as well.

·As a result of a competitive industry, bulk buyers like cola makers, chocolate

and sweetmeat makers who account for 70 per cent of the Indian demand,

will get better prices and quality.

·The farmers will also benefit by getting a good cane price once the industry

benefits.

·According to Crisil, the rating agency, the profitability of sugar firms may

increase by 50 percent if the sector is decontrolled.

·Decontrol will reduce their working capital requirement.

·It will help the sugar mills to settle their dues with farmers on time.

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-6.01

-3.79

-2.79

-0.30

-0.30

-0.21

0.00

0.25

0.28

1.66

1.68

1.68

1.98

2.27

2.35

2.41

2.45

2.56

4.65

5.21

5.69

-8.00 -6.00 -4.00 -2.00 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00

WHEAT (DELHI)

CHILLI (GUNTUR)

CARDAMOM (VANDANMEDU)

BARLEY (JAIPUR)

MENTHA OIL (CHANDAUSI)

RUBBER (KOCHI)

MILD STEEL INGOTS (GHAZIABAD)

GOLD KG (MUMBAI)

PEPPER MALABAR GAR (KOCHI)

REFINED SOYA OIL (INDORE)

RAW JUTE (KOLKATA)

SILVER (DELHI)

CRUDE PALM OIL (KANDLA)

CHANA (DELHI)

JEERA (UNJHA)

MUSTARD (JAIPUR)

TURMERIC (NIZAMABAD)

GUR (MUZAFFARNGR.)

MASOOR (INDORE)

SOYABEAN (INDORE)

CORIANDER (KOTA)

14

CURRENCY

Currency Table

Currency Pair Open High Low Close

USD/INR 54.80 54.90 54.25 54.30

EUR/INR 70.95 71.51 70.68 71.15

GBP/INR 83.59 84.26 83.04 83.52

JPY/INR 56.93 57.24 54.27 54.44

(Source: Thomson Reuters, Open: Friday (Prior) 9.00 AM IST, Close: Thursday 5.00 PM IST)

News Flows of last week

09th Apr: Cold weather slowed UK retail sales growth

09th Apr: Pick-up in UK industry signaled fragile economic recovery

10th Apr: White House cut long-run economic growth forecast

10th Apr: U.S March budget deficit shrank to $107 billion

11th Apr: Strong start to 2013 not going to last for U.S. economy: Reuters poll

11th Apr: The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment

benefits fell more than expected last week

USD/INR (APRIL) contract closed at ̀ 54.65 on 10th April'13. The contract made its high of 55.09 on 08th April'13 and a low of 54.51 on 10th April'13 (Weekly Basis).The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at 54.76.

On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 43.27. One can Sell around 55.00 for a target of 54.00 with the stop loss of 55.50.

` ``

EUR/INR (APRIL) contract closed at 71.54 on 10th April. The contract made its high of 71.58 on 10th April'13 and a low of 71.11 on 09th April'13 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at 71.08.

On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 53.11. One can Buy around 71.00 for a target of 72.00 with the stop loss of 70.50.

`` `

`

GBP/INR JPY/INR

JPY/INR (APRIL) contract closed at 54.95 on 10th April'13. The contract made its

high of 56.58 on 08th April'13 and a low of 54.55 on 10th April'13 (Weekly Basis).The

14-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at 56.71.

On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 26.34.

One can Sell around 56.00 for a target of 55.00 with the stop loss of 56.50.

`

` `

`

` `

GBP/INR (APRIL) contract closed at 83.62 on 10th April'13. The contract made its

high of 84.39 on 08th April'13 and a low of 83.29 on 09th April'13 (Weekly Basis).

The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at 83.33.

On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 56.65.

One can Buy around 83.45 for a target of 84.45 with the stop loss of 82.95.

`

` `

`

` `

USD/INR EUR/INR

Market Stance

Rupee rose last week as domestic shares recovered from a five-day slump, though

concerns about recent heavy foreign outflows and dollar demand from oil importers

kept gains in the local currency in check. However, In the international markets the

euro also hit a more than three-year high against the yen on Thursday, extending

gains as the Japanese currency came under broad pressure from the Bank of Japan's

radical easing programme. Moreover, the Reserve Bank of India has cut interest

rates twice already so far this year, but investors are split on whether the central

bank will ease again next month. The cues are mixed as headwinds are from the

lack of confidence in macro fundamentals and risk of FIIs pull-out from the equity

market. Foreign investors have now sold a net total of $156 million in Indian shares

in the five trading sessions to Tuesday and a net total of $1 billion in domestic debt

over the same period, according to regulatory data.

Economic gauge for the next week

Date Currency Event PREVIOUS

16th Apr: GBP GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) 2.80%

16th Apr: GBP GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) 2.30%

16th Apr: EUR EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY)

16th Apr: EUR EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) 1.30%

16th Apr: EUR EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) 48.5

16th Apr: USD USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) 2.00%

16th Apr: USD USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) 2.00%

17th Apr: GBP GBP Bank of England Minutes

17th Apr: USD USD U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book

Technical Recommendation

®

IPOIPO

INDIAN IPO NEWS

Companies garner ̀ 6,000 crore through IPOs in 2012-13

Indian companies mopped-up over ̀ 6,000 crore during the fiscal 2012-13 through initial public offerings (IPOs), a marginal rise of four per cent from

the past year. A total of ten companies collectively managed to garner ̀ 6,059 crore through their IPOs during the fiscal year ended March 31, 2013,

shows an analysis of data available with the stock exchanges. This marks a slight increase of four per cent from the total funds raised through IPOs

during the previous fiscal, 2011-12, when 33 companies had together mopped-up ̀ 5,808 crore. In 2010-11, a total of ̀ 33,183 crore worth of capital

was raised by 52 firms through their IPOs.

NCML Industries files IPO papers with SEBI

NCML Industries has filed a DRHP with SEBI for a public issue of 60 lakh equity shares of a face value of `10 each. The company is one of the

leading edible oil importing, manufacturing and marketing Companies of India with international presence, dealing in various edible oils such

as Soya bean oil, Cottonseed oil, Palm oil (Palmolein), Mustard oil, Rapeseed Oil etc. The objects of the Offer are to carry out the sale of

60,00,000 Equity Shares by the selling shareholders and to achieve the benefits of listing the Equity Shares on the Stock Exchanges. Corporate

Strategic Allianz Limited is the book running lead manager and Satellite Corporate Services Private Limited is registrar to the issue.

Advanced Enzyme Technologies files DRHP with SEBI

Advanced Enzyme Technologies has filed a DRHP with SEBI for a public issue of ̀ 200 crore. The company is one of the largest Indian enzyme company

engaged in the research & development, manufacturing and marketing of more than 400 proprietary enzyme products developed from 55 enzymes

operating in two primary business verticals namely Healthcare & Nutrition and Bio-Processing. Advanced Enzyme Technologies offer these products

to their global clientele of more than 700 customers spanning presence across 45 countries worldwide. ICICI Securities Limited, SBI Capital Markets

Limited are the book running lead manager and Link Intime India Private Limited is a registrar to the issue.

Aastha Minmet India files IPO papers with SEBI

Aastha Minmet India has filed a DRHP with SEBI for a public issue of `42 crore. The company is mainly engaged in domestic and international

trading of coal, steel, scrap metal, iron ore, chrome ore, manganese ore and other metals and minerals. Aastha Minmet has tied up with

National Spot Exchange Limited to sell the imported coal through exchange platform. Issue proceeds will be used for acquisition of Chrome Ore

Mine in Turkey; working capital requirements; and general corporate purposes. Aryaman Financial Services Limited is the book running lead

manager and Cameo Corporate Services Limited is registrar to the issue.

Just Dial gets Sebi nod for initial public offering

Leading local search engine Just Dial Ltd has received the go-ahead from market regulator Sebi for its proposed IPO. The company had re-filed

its DRHP with Sebi in August last year for the proposed public offer. The regulator's observations are necessary for the companies to launch any

public offer.The regulator had received the draft offer documents on August 14 through its merchant banker Citigroup Global Markets India.

Besides, Morgan Stanley India is the other book running lead managers to the issue. The company plans to sell 95.54 lakh equity shares of face

value of `10 each. However, Just Dial itself would not receive any money out of the issue as funds garnered would go to selling shareholders

including Sequoia, SAIF and Tiger Global.

1415

IPO TRACKER

V-Mart Retail Trading 287.36 123.00 20-Feb-13 210.00 216.00 160 -23.81

Bharti Infra. Telecom 33326.82 4533.60 28-Dec-12 220.00 200.00 176.45 -19.80

PC Jeweller Jewellary 1964.73 609.30 27-Dec-12 135.00 135.50 109.7 -18.74

CARE Rating Agency 2175.94 540.00 26-Dec-12 750.00 949.00 762.15 1.62

Tara Jewels Jewellary 412.94 179.50 6-Dec-12 230.00 242.00 168 -26.96

VKS Projects EPC 229.5 55.00 18-Jul-12 55.00 55.80 12.75 -76.82

Speciality Restaruants Restaurants 829.08 181.96 30-May-12 150.00 153.00 176.55 17.70

T B Z Jewellary 1455.07 210.00 9-May-12 120.00 115.00 218.25 81.88

Company Sector M.Cap(In Cr.) Issue Size(in Cr.) List Date Issue Price List Price Last Price %Gain/Loss(from Issue price)

*

®

Closing as on 11.04.13

16®

MUTUAL FUND

NEWS

Mutual Fund investor accounts dip by over 34 lakhThe mutual fund industry lost more than 34 lakh investors, measured in terms of individual accounts or folios, in the first 11 months of fiscal 2012-13. The number of folios, have fallen to 4.30 crore at the end of February from 4.64 crore in the previous fiscal (2011-12), translating into a decline of 34.34 lakh new investor accounts. Folios are numbers designated to individual investor accounts, although one investor can have multiple folios. The number of investor folios for equity schemes fell by 42.5 lakh, while the debt funds recorded an increase of over eight lakh in the number of their new investor accounts. The total number of folios in equity funds plunged to 3.34 crore at the end of February 2013 from 3.76 crore in the previous financial year. Equity folios form over 70 per cent of the industry's total new investor accounts.

LIC Nomura Mutual Fund eyes 2-fold rise in AUM in FY14LIC Nomura Mutual Fund targets over two-fold increase in its average assets under management (AUM) in the current fiscal by launching a host of new schemes in the debt and equity segments. The fund house, which had posted losses in FY2011 and FY2012, also hopes to report profit in 2012-13. LIC Nomura MF is a joint venture between insurance major LIC and Japanese Nomura Group with LIC holding 65 per cent stake in the joint venture.

Birla Sun Life MF introduces Fixed Term PlanBirla Sun Life Mutual Fund launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of Birla Sun Life Fixed Term Plan - Series GT (366 days), a close ended income scheme. The NFO opens for subscription on April 10, 2013 and closes on April 15,2013. No entry load or exit load will be applicable for the scheme. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate income by investing in a portfolio of fixed income securities maturing on or before the duration of the scheme.

DSP BlackRock MF introduces Dual Advantage FundDSP BlackRock Mutual Fund launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of DSP BlackRock Dual Advantage Fund - Series 14 - 33M, a close ended income scheme. The NFO opens for subscription on April 8, 2013 and closes on April 22, 2013. No entry load or exit load will be applicable for the scheme. The investment objective of the Schemes is to generate returns and seek capital appreciation by investing in a portfolio of debt and money market securities. The schemes also seek to invest a portion of the portfolio in equity & equity related securities to achieve capital appreciation. As far as investments in debt and money market securities are concerned, the Schemes will invest only in securities which mature on or before the date of maturity of the Schemes. There is no assurance.

IDBI Mutual Fund files offer document with SEBI for Fixed Maturity Plan - Series IIIIDBI Mutual Fund files offer document with SEBI to launch IDBI Fixed Maturity Plan - Series III, a close-ended debt scheme offering 5 Plans (Plan F to J) of tenor from 30 Days to 60 Months (inclusive). The New Fund Offer price is Rs 10 per unit. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate income through investments in debt and money market instruments. In accordance with SEBI circular each plan shall invest only in such securities which mature on or before the maturity date of the respective plan.

17®

NFOs WATCH

Fund Name NFO NFO Scheme Objective Fund Type Fund Class Fund Manager MinimumOpens on Closes on Amount

12-Apr-2013 17-Apr-2013 Close-Ended Growth `5000/-HDFC Fixed Maturity Plan - 370D - Apr 2013 Series 26 (2) (G)

Anil BamboliTo generate income through investments in Debt / Money Market Instruments and Government Securities maturing on or before the maturity date of the respective Plan.

15-Apr-2013 15-Apr-2013 Open-Ended Growth `5000/-Reliance Yearly Interval Fund - Series 7 (G)

Amit TripathiTo seek to generate returns and growth of capital by investing in a diversified portfolio of the following securities which are maturing on or before the next specified transaction date of the scheme with the objective of limiting interest rate volatility Central and State Government securities and Other fixed income/ debt securities.

10-Apr-2013 15-Apr-2013 Close-Ended Growth `5000/-Birla Sun Life Fixed Term Plan - Series GT (366 Days) (G)

Kaustubh GuptaTo generate income by investing in a portfolio of fixed income securities maturing on or before the duration of the Scheme.

08-Apr-2013 22-Apr-2013 Close-Ended Growth `5000/-DSP BlackRock Dual Advantage Fund - Series 14 (33M) - Direct Plan (G)

Dhawal Dalal / Vinit Sambre

To generate returns and seek capital appreciation by investing in a portfolio of debt and money market securities. The scheme also seeks to invest a portion of the portfolio in equity & equity related securities to achieve capital appreciation. As far as investments in debt and money market securities are concerned, the Schemes will invest only in securities which mature on or before the date of maturity of the Schemes.

16-Apr-2013 30-Apr-2013 Close-Ended Dividend `5000/-ICICI Prudential Multiple Yield Fund - Series 3 - Plan B - Direct Plan (D)

Rajat Chandak / Rahul Goswami

To seek to generate income by investing in a portfolio of fixed income securities/ debt instruments. The secondary objective of the Scheme is to generate long term capital appreciation by investing a portion of the Scheme\'s assets in equity and equity related instruments.

18

MUTUAL FUND Performance Charts

Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)

Scheme Name NAV Launch AUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Beta Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &

(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER

Axis Equity Fund - Growth 12.09 05-Jan-2010 531.80 -1.31 5.41 18.53 4.51 5.98 1.65 0.86 0.18 73.86 7.12 3.54 15.49

ICICI Prudential Service Industries F-G 19.62 30-Nov-2005 151.67 0.41 9.98 17.41 5.37 9.58 1.71 0.81 0.20 55.60 30.08 1.69 12.63

SBI Emerg Buss Fund - Growth 53.63 17-Sep-2004 1231.10 -12.44 0.54 17.30 13.37 21.65 1.97 0.74 0.27 16.89 58.37 10.38 14.36

Birla Sun Life India GenNext Fund-G 29.35 05-Aug-2005 128.25 -7.50 1.56 16.93 11.23 15.03 1.62 0.72 0.19 50.12 39.98 2.93 6.97

SBI Magnum Bluechip Fund - Growth 15.95 14-Feb-2006 856.35 -4.54 2.32 16.60 3.66 6.74 1.59 0.81 0.16 77.09 8.85 -- 14.06

Religare Equity Fund - Growth 13.57 04-Oct-2007 16.06 -2.65 1.88 16.58 4.15 5.68 1.29 0.58 0.16 66.88 8.56 -- 24.56

Sundaram Media & Entert Opp F-Reg-G 12.78 16-Jun-2008 36.20 -11.25 5.75 15.80 -6.87 5.22 2.92 1.11 0.23 N.A N.A N.A N.A

EQUITY (Diversified)

BALANCED

INCOME FUND

Note: Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option. The above mentioned data is on the basis of 11/04/2013Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 7%

ULTRA SHORT TERM

SHORT TERM FUND

Due to their inherent long term nature, the following 3 categories have been sorted on the basis of 1 year returns

Due to their inherent short term nature, the following 2 categories have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns

Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)

Scheme Name NAV Launch AUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &

(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER

SBI Magnum Balanced Fund - Growth 54.25 09-Oct-1995 374.07 -5.66 2.93 14.97 3.23 15.47 1.15 0.15 27.76 31.34 4.83 36.07

ICICI Prudential Balanced - Growth 53.83 03-Nov-1999 447.50 -5.21 1.93 9.86 8.74 13.34 1.22 0.08 44.91 16.17 1.08 37.85

Kotak Balance 18.28 25-Nov-1999 114.23 -2.61 1.46 9.86 5.31 15.31 1.24 0.05 57.88 7.89 0.48 33.74

Tata Balanced Fund - Plan A - Growth 93.39 08-Oct-1995 508.47 -5.74 -1.55 9.56 6.62 15.62 1.41 0.07 46.42 21.85 3.31 28.43

Reliance RSF - Balanced - Growth 23.96 08-Jun-2005 547.51 -7.96 -2.15 9.32 4.50 11.78 1.50 0.05 47.73 11.27 4.85 36.15

Birla Sun Life 95 - Growth 330.94 10-Feb-1995 575.99 -5.62 -0.10 9.25 5.36 21.23 1.36 0.03 53.18 11.51 0.33 34.98

Principal Balanced Fund - Growth 32.12 14-Jan-2000 15.52 -6.71 0.03 8.81 2.01 9.21 1.33 0.04 39.79 20.87 2.39 36.95

Returns (%) RiskAverage Yield till

Scheme Name NAV Launch AUM Since Std. SharpeMaturity (Days) Maturity

1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.

IDFC SSIF - Invt. Plan - Plan F - Growth 12.88 16-Jul-2010 1238.43 13.91 19.55 14.70 13.63 13.51 N.A 9.70 14.68 0.37 N.A 8.27

SBI Magnum Income Fund - Growth 29.27 25-Nov-1998 3018.90 12.35 16.42 10.75 12.32 13.41 9.23 7.71 14.65 0.37 N.A 8.29

IDFC SSIF - Invt Plan - Reg - Growth 28.62 14-Jul-2000 1238.43 13.04 18.72 13.91 13.40 13.10 8.86 8.60 14.33 0.35 N.A 8.27

IDFC D B F- Plan A - Growth 23.90 25-Jun-2002 3993.68 12.52 18.86 14.00 13.42 13.09 9.73 8.40 14.28 0.36 730.00 8.30

ICICI Prudential Income Opp. F-G 16.26 18-Aug-2008 2345.64 20.27 23.46 14.46 9.78 12.64 8.24 11.03 14.53 0.32 N.A 8.96

UTI Bond Fund - Growth 35.29 04-May-1998 1776.96 19.54 19.61 12.86 13.21 12.59 9.81 8.80 14.64 0.29 705.00 N.A

Reliance Dynamic Bond Fund - Growth 15.82 16-Nov-2004 4182.45 32.04 23.29 7.81 10.99 11.95 9.33 5.58 14.34 0.28 N.A 7.38

Annualised

Returns (%) Risk Average Yield tillScheme Name NAV Launch AUM Since Std. Sharpe Maturity (Days) Maturity

1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.

Sundaram Select Debt-STAP-Reg-Appreciation 20.17 04-Sep-2002 20.85 10.76 14.24 14.73 10.97 11.27 9.85 6.84 4.89 0.76 N.A 9.42

Escorts Short Term Debt Fund-Growth 17.77 29-Dec-2005 12.54 8.99 9.94 10.54 10.91 11.13 9.77 8.21 2.87 1.12 N.A N.A

ICICI Prudential Blended-Plan B-Option I-G 17.63 31-May-2005 948.67 20.95 19.90 10.47 10.85 9.89 8.49 7.48 6.27 0.36 N.A 8.49

UTI Short Term Income F-Ret-Growth 20.51 23-Jun-2003 2280.04 14.03 14.77 13.72 10.51 11.33 9.18 7.60 6.24 0.58 610.00 N.A

Birla Sun Life Short Term Opp. F- G 18.74 24-Apr-2003 401.53 9.39 13.46 15.75 10.05 11.67 9.40 6.50 5.33 0.78 N.A 10.38

Taurus Short Term Income F-Growth 2036.74 23-Aug-2001 373.43 8.88 12.16 10.89 9.89 10.34 9.28 6.30 1.24 2.38 47.00 N.A

Templeton India STIP - Growth 2368.02 31-Jan-2002 5744.78 11.60 16.20 15.10 9.54 10.49 8.53 8.00 4.80 0.66 N.A 10.85

Annualised

Returns (%) Risk Average Yield tillScheme Name NAV Launch AUM Since Std. Sharpe Maturity (Days) Maturity

1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.

Indiabulls Ultra Short Term F-Growth 1129.34 06-Jan-2012 615.57 8.58 13.82 12.11 9.43 9.96 N.A 10.13 1.94 1.39 123.00 9.78

Templeton India Low Duration F-G 12.76 26-Jul-2010 2803.69 8.73 14.44 13.25 9.26 9.97 N.A 9.42 2.31 1.15 N.A 10.10

JM Money Manager Fund - Reg - Growth 16.35 27-Sep-2006 207.59 8.75 9.65 9.30 9.13 9.80 9.07 7.81 0.75 3.24 N.A 9.31

Kotak Floater - LT - Growth 18.75 13-Aug-2004 4289.57 4.94 12.03 12.13 9.06 9.64 8.60 7.52 1.75 1.35 193.00 9.20

DWS Cash Opportunities Fund-Reg-G 15.69 22-Jun-2007 375.67 7.02 14.01 12.52 8.97 9.72 8.39 8.07 2.20 1.08 N.A 9.50

IDFC Ultra Short Term Fund-Reg-Growth 16.36 17-Jan-2006 1157.07 7.75 12.21 10.57 8.96 9.96 8.93 7.04 2.32 1.09 N.A 8.60

Principal Debt Opp. F- Conservative-G 1868.62 14-Sep-2004 417.49 8.45 12.13 10.95 8.94 9.60 8.58 7.56 1.38 1.60 75.00 9.92

Annualised

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SMC Celebrating 7th Anniversary of Wise Money