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1 | U.S. Department of Energy energy.gov
Presentation/Event Title
David Sandalow Assistant Secretary Office of Policy and International Affairs
2 | U.S. Department of Energy energy.gov
Transportation sector depends on oil
Natural Gas 3%
Biomass 3%
Petroleum 94%
U.S. Transportation Fuel Share (2009)
3 | U.S. Department of Energy energy.gov
Oil dependence puts our economy at risk
Oil and Price Economic Growth, 1970-2009
Source: Greene, D.L. and N. I. Tishchishyna, Costs of Oil Dependence: A 2000 Update, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, ORNL/TM-2000/152, Oak Ridge, TN, 2000, and data updates, 2010.
Five of the last five economic downturns have been preceded by oil prices increases
4 | U.S. Department of Energy energy.gov
Production
Consumption
Mill
ion
barr
els
per
day
U.S. became a net oil importer in the 1950s
US imports around half of
its oil
Source: Energy Information Administration (top), CIA World Factbook (bottom)
US is the world’s largest oil importer
2009 Oil Imports (in bbl/day)
0.00
2,000,000.00
4,000,000.00
6,000,000.00
8,000,000.00
10,000,000.00
12,000,000.00
US China South Korea India Germany
5 | U.S. Department of Energy energy.gov
China has a rapidly growing car market Millions passenger vehicles and trucks
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
China 75m
6 | U.S. Department of Energy energy.gov
The President’s Plan for Transportation
7 | U.S. Department of Energy energy.gov
Cars
Trucks
15
20
25
30
35
40
new combined standard 35.5 mpg by 2016
Projected to reduce oil consumption by about 1.8 billion barrels over the
lifetime of vehicles sold in next 5 years
New Fuel Standards 54.5 mpg by 2025
8 | U.S. Department of Energy energy.gov
Recovery Act - Battery and Electric Drive Award Distribution
9 | U.S. Department of Energy energy.gov
Gasoline Hybrid - +40 % Better MPG Diesel Hybrid – Double MPG Plug-In Hybrid – 3 to 4 Times Better MPG Electric Vehicles – Battery Energy Storage
Displaces Oil: 1 Gallon Ethanol Replaces 0.7 gal of Gasoline
DOE’s Vehicle Technologies Program
Advanced Combustion Engines, Emission Controls, and Waste Energy Recovery
Biofuels/Fuel Blends
Electric and Hybrid Electric Vehicle Systems
Advanced Materials Lightweighting – 6% to
8% better MPG per 10% Reduction in Weight (Up to 50%)
PM
NOx
Current Efficiency 28% >45% cars, >55% trucks%
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
500
1500 1000
2000 2500
3000 5.0
3.0 4.0
2.0 1.0
0.0
O2 F
ract
ion
Soot
NOx
10 | U.S. Department of Energy energy.gov
DOE Quadrennial Technology Review (QTR) Report (Sept 2011)
Just released by Secretary Chu
• Rigorous analysis of energy technology
• Recommends priorities in DOE’s energy-technology programs
www.energy.gov/qtr
11 | U.S. Department of Energy energy.gov
“There is significant headroom for DOE to work on increasing conventional vehicle efficiency by improving the internal combustion engine, by lightweighting, and by improving the aerodynamics of heavy-duty vehicles.”
QTR Report - On Improving Vehicle Fuel Efficiency
12 | U.S. Department of Energy energy.gov
“The performance, low cost, and fuel flexibility of ICEs makes it likely that they will continue to dominate the vehicle fleet for at least the next several decades. ICE improvements can also be applied to both hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and vehicles that use alternative hydrocarbon fuels. Within the vehicle efficiency portfolio, ICE improvements will receive the greatest emphasis, both because it contributes to light-duty and heavy-duty vehicle sectors and because DOE’s capabilities are well-aligned with the field’s technical needs.”
QTR Report - On Internal Combustion Engines
13 | U.S. Department of Energy energy.gov
1 Review of the Research Program of the FreedomCAR and Fuel Partnership: Third Report, NRC, 2010
Opportunity for Increased Internal Combustion Engine Efficiency
“…The internal combustion engine will be the dominant prime mover for light-duty vehicles for many years, probably decades …” NRC Report1
Advanced engines in conventional, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) will maintain significant market share for several decades
Medium-duty and heavy-duty commercial vehicles
account for a quarter of the fuel used (mostly diesel fuel)
No obvious alternative to ICE for over-the road trucks in the foreseeable future
Increasing the efficiency of internal combustion engines (ICEs) is one of the most promising and cost-effective approaches to improving the fuel economy
of the U.S. vehicle fleet in the near- to mid-term.
14 | U.S. Department of Energy energy.gov
Realizing Benefits of Vehicle Technology Takes Time
Light-Duty Automotive Technology and Fuel Economy Trends: 1975 Through 2010, EPA420-R-10-023, November 2010, p. 69
U.S. Vehicle Market • About 240 million vehicles
on the road • Approximately 11.5M new
cars & light trucks sold in 2010; the average was 15.7 M/yr from 2002-2007
• Hybrid vehicles at about 3% of sales
Vehicle Technology Penetration Years After Initial Significant Use
It has taken about 15 years for a technology to prove itself and reach 40 to 50% of production, and another 15 years to maximum market penetration.
15 | U.S. Department of Energy energy.gov
•DOE R&D improved thermal efficiency of over-the-road heavy-duty diesel engines by over 4.5% .
• Benefits from heavy-duty vehicles alone (1995 – 2007) represent an over 60:1 return on investment (ROI) of government funds for heavy-duty combustion engine R&D - total savings of over $70B.
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Bra
ke T
herm
al E
ffici
ency
DOE research stretch goal
Current DOE R&D program
Demonstration engine Estimated demonstration engineActual commercial engineEstimated impact w/o DOE R&D*Start of more stringent emission regulations
Progress In Heavy-Duty Diesel Engine Efficiency and Emissions
[Source: Retrospective Benefit-Cost Evaluation of U.S. DOE Vehicle Advanced Combustion Engine R&D Investments: Impacts of a Cluster of Energy Technologies, U.S. DOE, May 2010]
16 | U.S. Department of Energy energy.gov
0
5
10
15
20
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Model Year
Ox
ide
s o
f N
itro
ge
n (
g/b
hp
-hr)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Pa
rticu
late
Ma
tter
PM
Steady StateTest
NOx + HC
Transient TestNOx(Unregulated)
PM (Unregulated)
NOx
NOx + HC
NOx
Urban Bus PM
2002
2007
NOx + NMHC
90%
90%
0
5
10
15
20
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Model Year
Ox
ide
s o
f N
itro
ge
n (
g/b
hp
-hr)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Pa
rticu
late
Ma
tter
PM
Steady StateTest
NOx + HC
Transient TestNOx(Unregulated)
PM (Unregulated)
NOx
NOx + HC
NOx
Urban Bus PM
2002
2007
NOx + NMHC
90%
90%
Historical Trend in Emissions from New Diesel Engines
“We have been working with
DOE on clean engine technology for the past 20 years. In fact, many of the technologies used in our
engines today were developed in partnership with the DOE, our national labs, universities
and other research institutions.“ – Tim Solso
Cummins Chairman and CEO June 2010
Progress In Heavy-Duty Diesel Engine Efficiency and Emissions
17 | U.S. Department of Energy energy.gov
Government funded research
Internet
Teflon
Velcro
18 | U.S. Department of Energy energy.gov