A Strategic Approach to Environmental Prediction: Evolving Perspectives from Canada

Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface WorkshopStuttgart, GermanyMarch 12-13, 2007

Mark Cantwell

Federal Department of the Environment

Environment Canada

Environement Canada Canada

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Presentation Objectives & Outline

Workshop Objective To explore and close the “disconnect” between numerical modelling and policy development

Presentation Premise1. “Disconnect” is a moving target that consists of varying scales and levels:

today’s gap is not tomorrow’s gap2. That policy makers are not interested in “models” per se, they are interested in

(and sometimes afraid of) predictive decision-support tools that help minimise societal risk and maximise opportunities

3. Thus critical to establish a mechanism for continuously evaluating & responding to the changing disconnect: meeting policy needs requires a strategic approach

Presentation ObjectiveTo covey the lessons learned by Environment Canada during development of such a mechanism

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Context for Presentation

“Environmental Prediction is the future of this Department”Deputy Minister, Environment Canada, May 2005

• Summer 2005: Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) began to investigate & promote the benefits of/demands for EP and to formulate a strategic approach that would lead to:

• Widespread appreciation of EP and its potential• Enhanced strategic Departmental investments for policy development & program delivery

• A draft EP Framework has since been developed and endorsed by senior managers responsible for Environment Canada’s MSC Branch, Science & Technology Branch, and Operations & Infrastructure Branch, as well as various other senior regional managers.

• Next phase: initiating discussions concerning implementation of the EP Strategic Framework and potential implications for national policy development in Canada

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What is EP and why is it needed?

Applications to:

Weeks

Foresight

Outlooks

Risk = (probability of Hazard) x (Vulnerability) [i.e., significance of impact]

Opportunity = (probability of Reward) x (significance of Reward)

From: NOAA Leadership Seminar

…It’s about assessing risks/opportunities for sustainable development

Simple Definition“Using knowledge of the natural and socioeconomic sciences to

project likely or conditional states of the natural world over any time frame”

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Know your audience: why do policy-makers need EP?

Generally: EP is a fundamental requirement for sustainable development – EP helps government to fulfil legal and leadership responsibilities not only for the environment, but for human health

and safety and prosperity– EP help industry must maximize Return on Investment

Specifically: EP is a requirement for environmental policy development • Identifies emerging policy issues

• Diagnoses/contextualises policy issues

• Generates policy options

• More than a tool: a policy instrument

• Evidence based policy making: accountability

• Integrates pillars of sustainability

EP that is integrative/contextual and receptor-based is more likely to better inform adaptation and mitigation policies

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Organising Principles that link knowledge to action

First task, first lesson: • Evaluating user needs is complex, requires significant effort• Social sciences advocate “co-production” between users & developers: leads to innovation,

effectiveness, relevancy• Requires “communities of action” and integration

Recommended readings:David Cash, Clark, Alcock, et al (2002). Salience, Credibility, Legitimacy and

Boundaries: Linking Research, Assessment and Decision Making. John F. Kennedy School of Government. Harvard University Faculty Research Working Paper Series. RWP02-046.

David W. Cash, Borck, Patt (2006) Countering the “Loading Dock” Approach to Linking Science and Decision-Making: Comparative Analysis of El Nino Southern Oscillation Forecasting Systems. Journal of Science, Technology & Human Values, Vol. 31, No. 4, 465-494

National Center for Atmospheric Research

Vision :“…to help optimize the use of natural resources, NCAR must create the knowledge and the tools needed to reach a full predictive understanding of the Earth as a system, including its human dimensions….

LegitimacyCredibilityRelevancy

Knowledge/Tool Development

Dissemination & Promotion

User Needs(incl. policy)

Research

Monitoring/Data Collection

EP-Based Decision Making

Evaluation & Adaptation

EP Priorities (EC’s + partners)

Infrastructure/Operations

ConveneTranslateCollaborateMediate

Feedback loops implicit

User needs EP Priority

Setting

Research Monitoring/

Data Collection

Knowledge/ Tool Development

Operations/

Infrastructure

Dissemination & Promotion

Evaluation &

Adaptation

EXAMPLE ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION VISION Canada creates a safe, prosperous and sustainable future for themselves and the global commons by wisely applying environmental prediction knowledge and tools to their decision-making processes.

EXAMPLE MISSIONEnvironment Canada champions development and implementation of an EP Strategy by leading, catalyzing, and/or facilitating actions that create environmental prediction knowledge and tools needed by citizens and their governments to best manage risks and create opportunities in the areas of human health and safety, competitiveness and natural capital.

ENVIRONMENT PREDICTION STRATEGY Founded on EP Creation Cycle

Long Term Management Objective 1

(Health, Safety & Security)By 20xx, Canada is a global leader in applying EP knowledge and tools that minimize human health and safety risks and maximize social and cultural opportunities

Long Term Management Objective 2 (Competitiveness)

By 20xx, Canada is a global leader in applying EP knowledge and tools that minimize risk and maximize opportunity for Canadian productivity and competitiveness.

Long Term Management Objective 3

(Natural Capital)By 20xx, Canada is a global leader in applying EP knowledge and tools that minimizes risk and maximizes opportunities to protect, conserve, and enhance natural capital

Example Goals [targets]•Per capita health and life insurance claims arising from environmental impacts is reduced [by x%]

•Number of Canadians injured or killed by environmental impacts is reduced [by x%]

•Per capita personal property/infrastructure insurance claims are reduced [by x%]

Example Goals [targets]•Per capita industrial infrastructure insurance claims are reduced [by x%]

•GDP sensitive to environmental changed reduced [by x%]

•Demand for novel EP knowledge by public and industry rises [by x%]

• EC understands on an on-going basis the EP needs and requirements of the Canadian public and Industry

Example Goals [targets]• Number and use of EP-related tools and techniques available for Environmental Assessments rises [by x%]

Policy Making

Principles of Co-Production Integration + communities of action Innovation, efficiency, relevancy

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Thematic

Issue

User needs

EP Priority

Setting

Research Knowledge/ Tool Development

Monitoring/

Data Collection

Infrastructure/Operations

Dissemination Evaluation &

Adaptation

Water

Quantity

Energy

Sector

Issue X

Air Quality

EP Framework Function

? ? ??

Relevant

Innovative

Efficient

InnovativeManagement Objectives

En

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enta

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utc

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Matr

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Man

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Characteristics of Framework

Virtues of Framework

• Explicit process: “how” is evident, expectations/responsibilities are clear

• Needs based: not a solution in search of a problem

• Community based: partners coordinated & integrated, synergies captured

• Real strategy: EP components self-manage via operating principles

• Adaptive: fully responsive to policy priorities

Challenges of Framework

• Takes time to grow a community & learn via integration

• Community-based implies power sharing

• Development of new EP knowledge and tools may mean re-allocation or seeking of additional resources

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End