A Micro-Level Analysis of Violent Conflict Synthesis and Reflections

Patricia JustinoDirector, MICROCON IDS, 30 June 2011www.microconflict.eu

Twitter: @microconflict#microconflict

Key lessons

Ordinary people matter People are more than victims: the importance of agency People build resilience in the face of conflict

It is about understanding the conflict Length and structure of conflict Nature of violence Institutional change

Agency and resilience shape conflict processes and outcomes

MICROCON

Main purpose

Advance the field of conflict analysis through micro level approach

understand individual and group interactions leading to and resulting from violent conflicts (full conflict cycle)

violent conflicts: systematic breakdown of the social contract resulting from and/or leading to changes in social norms, which involve mass violence instigated through collective action

Better informed domestic, regional and international conflict policy – placing individuals and groups at the centre of interventions

MICROCON Consortium

Rest of the WorldCanada: University of British Columbia

South Africa: University of Cape Town

Colombia: Universidad de Los Andes

India: Institute for Human Development

Uganda: Makerere University

Kyrgyzstan: Centre for Economic and Social Research

United States: Tufts UniversityYale University

EuropeBelgium: Centre for European Policy StudiesUniversité Catholique du LouvainGhent UniversityFree University of Brussels (VUB)

Norway: Fafo Institute for Applied International Studies

Bulgaria: International Collaboration Institute Affiliated to the German Public Universities Association – Sofia Branch

Portugal: University Nova of Lisboa

France:University of Rouen

Romania: Institute of Agricultural Economics

Germany: German Institute for Economic ResearchUnited Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security

Spain: University of Alicante

Italy: Institute of International Affairs

UK: Institute of Development StudiesPoverty Research Unit, SussexUniversity of Oxford

The Netherlands: Institute of Social Studies

Evidence and data

New Data Existing Data

Facts and motivations Until recently conflict and violence not mainstreamed in development policy

Concern with state security and state capacity

What about the people? 1.5 billion people affected by conflict and violence One third of those living in extreme poverty Over 1/2 of all child mortality in the world Over 40% of all out of school children No conflict-affected country will achieve the MDGs

Limited knowledge and evidence of how people live in contexts of violent conflict

Knowledge gaps

At a fundamental level, conflict originates from people’s behaviourand how they interact with society and their environment

Who are the people affected by violent conflict? How do they live? What do they do to secure lives and livelihoods? What options do they have?

What choices do they make? Why are they get affected by violence? In what way? How does violence

change options and choices? Are they part of the conflict? What led them into it?

What have we learned?

Framework

Ordinary people matter

Important macro causes of violent conflict military, financial, technological, ideological beliefs, mobilisation capacity,

strength of state presence

Processes of violent conflict also related to: what happens to people during violent conflicts what people do in areas of violence – adapt to secure lives and livelihoods

micro foundations of violent conflict

Adaptation affects conflict

Welfare effects: Direct: killings, injuries, disability, assets, displacement Indirect:

local institutions: markets, social relations, political institutions national economy: economic growth, distribution

But people adapt to survive take on available opportunities adapt forms of livelihoods to survival needs join in informal exchange and employment markets form social and political alliances negotiate with local actors

Adaptation shapes and is shaped by conflict outcomes and processes

It is about understanding the conflict

The conflict

People’s behaviour, choices, attitudes and preferences shape conflict processes on the ground Where to fight, with whom, for how long

Conflict is not a shock Lasts across generations and people adapt accordingly

Long-term legacies Some negative; some positive Conflict alters people’s behaviour, choices, attitudes and preferences

Transformation and change; not short-term effects

The violence

Contexts where conflict managed through violent means

People’s behaviour, choices, attitudes and preferences enable (or constrain) strategic use of violence

Beyond destruction: violence used to force transformation some of it may create more certain and secure environments

Interactions between types of violence:

violent riots, organised crime, communal violence, domestic violence armed fighting

Institutional transformation

People resort to local institutions to protect economic status and lives

Policy focus on the importance of building institutions – but what institutions and how?

Focus still on solving violent conflict through peace agreements between selected leaders, followed by the panacea of DDR, SSR, elections

What about the mechanisms that govern the effective implementation of

these policies on the ground?

Social interactions and local governance structures

Social interactions

Social norms of trust and cooperation Development and peace-building focus on community-level Support new investments (physical and human capital) DDR and reconstruction programmes?

Forms of social organisation Management of property rights Dispute resolution over land and common resources Distribution of public goods and common resources Regulation of access to public goods, basic services and markets

Local governance

Close link between violent conflict and the absence of the state

Absence of state does not mean absence of governance – local order determined by who holds the gun

These institutions can be persistent and efficient – provision of basic sense of security

Long term process: no short answers to peace and state-building change behaviour, norms and organisations

From research to policy

How to improve conflict policy

Defusing mechanisms: entry points to break long-term negative legacies and build on positive changes

This allows:

Development policies: incentives to halt use of violence as strategy to influence allocation of power

Institution building: what institutions and how?

Defusing mechanisms Key channels linking interventions and outcomes

Exercise of agency in conflict settings (not always positive) Structure of the conflict Close links between people and conflict processes

Which entry points?

Development: focus on supporting resilience It is not enough to just look at the ‘poor’; vulnerable to violence Violence and conflict as constant factors in people’s lives Vulnerability is everywhere; not just among those that we can see

Institutions: engagement with new/emerging power structures New development actors? From ordinary people to non-state armed actors

Development policies Current international policy: (our) security as major goal; development aid as means to

support stability

Beyond ‘hearts and minds’: (re)establish social contract (broken or contested, sometimes for good reasons) It is about helping to provide opportunities and equality

Development should be priority in itself Security is priority for people but for whom, how and what the trade-offs Health, education and economic security beyond emergency aid If states does not provide then someone else will

Not just aid: building structures and guaranteeing equitable access to them Humanitarian aid useful but limited to short-term intervention

Building institutions

Need to get institutions right: Which institutions? How?

More attention paid to the other side of the story – what do we do about the institutions that emerge from conflict? Violence instrumental role beyond destruction Emergence of social and political order

Implications: Explaining why conflict persists, mutates, and how peace may emerge Survival and security of ordinary people Negotiate with, engage and understand complex distributions of power within

populations in conflict-affected contexts

Looking ahead

Ongoing/Recent Conflicts

Recent Revolts / Major Protests

Recent Internal Conflicts / Uprisings

Ongoing Internal Conflicts

Intergroup Violence

Drug Related / Gang Violence