A Green Vision for 2020/30

Claude Turmes, MEPVice President of the Green/EFA group in the European Parliament

Ossiach, 2007

Source: Malte Meinshausen, Swiss Technical University

More we wait,more deeper the cuts!

The end of resource intensive economies

• Climate change problem is only one indicator of a more GENERAL SYSTEM CRISES

• Extrapolating the resource intensive economic model of US – Japan – EU to the rest of the world will create extreme resource stress and risks of disruption of major ecological systems

The role for the EU in a “resource constraint world”

• develop a “new” economic model which creates high quality of life within the “ecological footprint”

• Establish a “rules based” international system(Kyoto, access and conflict mediation around resources)

• 3 yardsticks for energy policies:– Prevent dangerous climate change– Anticipate oil security of supply problems– Reduce and eliminate the nuclear risk

…and no Harry Potter to help !2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055

The biggest energy « source »: energy efficiency

Source: Green Paper on Energy Efficiency, EC 2005

Organisational Innovation key

• Technological innovationLow energy housing, “A” class appliances, light railway,off shore wind, thermal electricity, CCS

• Organisational innovationPolitical concepts (ecological taxes, ETS)Planning concepts (urban planning)Financing concepts (risk sharing facilities)Social marketing (life style changes)

Ambitious targets: -30% CO2 in 2020 for EU

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Gt C

O2e

CO2

CH4

N2OHFC, PFC & SF6

Nuclear phase-out w/o add'l P&M

Emission reduction

30% reduction (compared to 1990 levels)

50% reduction (compared to 1990 levels)

80% reduction (compared to 1990 levels)

Source: Vision Scenario, Greens in the EP, 2006

Green vision: 30% cut of GHG in 2020 and

nuclear phase out

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mt C

O2e

Reduction of other greenhouse gas emissions

Renewables in transport

Efficiency in aviation

Car efficiency

Modal shift in transport

Renewables in tertiary sectors

Efficient heating & cooling in tertiary sectors

Efficient use of electricity in tertiary sectors

Renewables in households

Efficient heating & cooling in households

Efficient use of electricity in households

Renewables in industry

Efficient fuel use in industry

Efficient use of electricity in industry

Energy use in other energy sectors

Renewables in power production

CHP & fuel switch in the power sector

CCS for new lignite, hard coal and gas*

Other GHG

Transport

Tertiary

Households

Industry

Power& Energy

(*add'l option)

bau versus vision: Transport

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100

200

300

400

500

2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030

1990 2000 Baseline Scenario Vision Scenario

Mto

e

Electricity

Gas

Biofuel

Other petroleumproducts

Kerosenes - Jet Fuels

Motor spirit

Gas/diesel oil

Efficient transport systemBinding Biofuels targets as an alibi to escape from real

mesures!

• „Green cars“ through a long term minimum efficiencystandard for cars (70-80 gr CO2 /km in 2020)

• Promotion of „lower CO2 fuels“ (new „fuel quality“directive)

• early review of EUROVIGNETTE directive• kerosene tax for EU aviation sector• A European ICE/TGV train network• A "green city" program with major cities in Europe like

London, Paris, Berlin,…

bau versus vision:Households

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100

200

300

400

500

2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030

1990 2000 Baseline Scenario Vision Scenario

Mto

e

Heat

Electricity

Others & waste

Geothermal

Solar

Gas

Oil

Hard coal

Lignite

Efficient heating&cooling sectorA European Buildings initiative

40% of all EU energy is used in buildingsMore than 50% of all gas and 75% of Russian gas

• Low energy/plus energy for all new buildings• Ambitious standards for major renovations• Combined heat/cooling&power systems• Transposition of existing „building directive“

(harmonisation of codes, labelling for houses)• Financing instruments: greening structural funds

and the EIB energy investments

Stimulate the technologicalprogress in new buildings

Source: O.Ö. Energiesparverband (http://www.esv.or.at)

deep renovations for the existingbuilding stock

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50

100

150

200

250

300

Before SOLANOVA

kWh/

m2a

Renewable Fossile Ene

-84%

Bau versus vision: electricity

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030

1990 2000 Baseline Scenario Vision Scenario

TWh

Biomass & Waste

Geothermal

Solar

Wind

Hydro

Gas

Oil

Lignite & brown coal

Hard coal

Nuclear

Green Vision: Electricity

• More efficient appliances, office equipment, industrial equipment

• Less electricity for heating and cooling• High amount of CHP and gas• Renewables grow:

– 44% in 2020, 59% in 2030– Most from wind (offshore important) and biomass

(CHP important), some later from solar and geothermal

– Invest in infrastructure and create fair economic framework

21 Renewables for the XXI century

Need of strong European instruments– Continue Existing renew. Electricity directive

(priority dispatching, feed-in versus quotas systems)– Develop large scale biomass, off-shore wind,

solar thermal electricity– Heating&Cooling: new EU directive needed

(promotion of district heating networks key)– Biofuels: sustainability criteria needed; solve

blending versus „stand alone“ biofuels issue

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1976

1980

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1996

2000

cost

($/W

p)

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100

150

200

250

300

MW

shi

pped

Source: Solar Generation (Greenpeace – EPIA)

The costs of renewables are coming down

Concentrating Solar Power CSP

150 MWe in California5 new 30 -80 MWe in Spain

EU summit decisions:

• GHG targets:– -30% mandate for international– at least -20% unilateral

• Mesures:– 20% binding renewables– -20% energy efficiency– nuclear (Low carbon technology target)

defeated

The electricity sectors challengehow to prevent „dash for coal“?

• ambitious programs to curb electricity demand– „greening consumer goods“ program (EuP, low VAT)– Ambitious national energy efficiency action plans

• the new EU renewables directive (33% greenelectricity, in-feed as best system, prioritydispatching) )

• a new European CHP initiative• review of EU ETS

– introduction of 100% auctionning for power sector– a more European attribution for the industry sector

• promote the „CCS ready“ concept

A coherent EU gas strategyGas is crucial for transition to „green electricity

age“ (de-link oil from gas price)

• Reduce gas in heating sector, • Diversify geographically (pipelines,LNG)• Promote Gas Storage and „reversable“ gas

contracts• Unbundbling for intra-EU transport pipelines• Establish a „non shopping list“ for „Gazprom“• Gas Release programs

Monoculture…

More (bio)diversity in thefor electricity and gas market

• full ownership unbundling for all electricityand gas transmission lines

• harmonisation of the powers of national regulators and cartel authorities

• promote smart grids, renewables and CHP • stop undue and prevent new subsidies to

the coal and nuclear sector• Establish fully segregated nuclear

decommission funds and insurance liability

From geopolitics to biosphere-politics

• Ressource efficiency as core of foreignpolicy agreements (global standards forindustry, cars, computers,…)

• Renewables as centerpiece of international cooperation (new EU fund)

• A global CO2 market• „Rimini“ protocol for peacefull accessto

last oil&gas• Nuclear free zones

Next important steps at EU level

• Ongoing: regional electricity markets• July 07: National efficiency action plans• Sept 07: 3rd EU directives gas&elec• Nov 07: new renewables directive• Dec 07: ETS phase 3• March 08:

– Minimum standards for 8 appliances– Strategic Energy Plan (2030-2050)

Time to act is now!

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