7
A CLOSE LOOK AT THE GLOBAL RETAIL MARKET 2007 INTERNATIONAL R ETAILERS ’ S URVEY Cushman & Wakefield was commissioned by ICSC Europe and REP (Real Estate Publishers) to update its annual survey of International retailers. Some 250 retail companies were interviewed between May and June 2007 by Simpson Carpenter, a specialist market research agency. The survey was designed, analyzed and reported on by Cushman & Wakefield. Telephone interviews were conducted in all the major European languages and all the responses were aggregated to ensure confidentiality. THE HEADLINE IMPLICATIONS A total of 250 retailers from 23 countries operating in some 19 retail sectors, with outlets across Europe took part in the survey. The distribution of retailers by country was more geographically spread than in previous surveys, reflecting the growth of international retailing operations in Central and Eastern Europe. Their responses and opinions on a variety of questions and issues influence the following conclusions on the current and future state of the European retail market. There are clearly still opportunities in Central and Eastern Europe, particularly Russia, on which European and US retailers are still focused. Other regions of the world are also on the radar, particularly the Middle East and parts of Asia. Some of the more mature markets are still of interest. The top five expansion targets are broadly the same as last year, although Budapest has slipped with the ascendancy of Sofia and Bucharest. All the major Central and Eastern European cities where international retailers are not represented are in the top 20 with Split appearing for the first time. Retailers with origins in CEE are now expanding internationally as they have grown in their own domestic markets. There will be increased movement around CEE and increasingly into more mature markets that match their target customers. Multi-channel retailing is increasing across Europe but it has yet to really make its mark in some parts of Europe, notably Central and Eastern Europe. Online retailing, however, is increasing as more people acquire access to the Internet. Online retailers have been highlighted by retailers, particularly from the US and the more mature western, northern and southern markets of Europe, as being the ones to watch in 2008. The coming year will remain challenging for retailers with many factors over which they have limited control working to influence their ultimate performance. Retailing has always been a competitive industry where innovation and cost controls are fundamental. The movement of retailers across international boundaries will help to challenge domestic and foreign retailers alike by providing something new to consumers and retail locations across the continent. By Yvonne Court and Rachel Hillel, Cushman & Wakefield PHOTO: ANP >> A CLOSE LOOK AT THE GLOBAL RETAIL MARKET A CLOSE LOOK AT THE GLOBAL RETAIL MARKET ICSC EUROPE REP CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD ICSC EUROPE REP CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD SURVEY RETAIL SPACE EUROPE 2008 429 SURVEY

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Page 1: A CLOSE REP C 2007 INTERNATIONAL R URVEYstorage0.dms.mpinteractiv.ro/media/401/341/5846/2304491/1/retaile… · represented this year. Home prod-ucts (including electrical goods,

A CLOSE LOOK AT THE GLOBAL RETAIL MARKET

2007 INTERNATIONAL RETAILERS’ SURVEYCushman & Wakefi eld was commissioned by ICSC Europe and

REP (Real Estate Publishers) to update its annual survey of International

retailers. Some 250 retail companies were interviewed between May and

June 2007 by Simpson Carpenter, a specialist market research agency.

The survey was designed, analyzed and reported on by Cushman &

Wakefi eld. Telephone interviews were conducted in all the major

European languages and all the responses were aggregated to ensure

confi dentiality.

THE HEADLINE IMPLICATIONS

A total of 250 retailers from 23 countries operating in some 19 retail sectors, with outlets across Europe took part in the survey. The distribution of retailers by country was more geographically spread than in previous surveys, refl ecting the growth of international retailing operations in Central and Eastern Europe. Their responses and opinions on a variety of questions and issues infl uence the following conclusions on the current and future state of the European retail market.

■ There are clearly still opportunities in Central and Eastern Europe, particularly Russia, on which European and US retailers are still focused. Other regions of the world are also on the radar, particularly the Middle East and parts of Asia. Some of the more mature markets are still of interest.

■ The top fi ve expansion targets are broadly the same as last year, although Budapest has slipped with the ascendancy of Sofi a and Bucharest. All the major Central and Eastern European cities where international retailers are not represented are in the top 20 with Split appearing for the fi rst time.

■ Retailers with origins in CEE are now expanding internationally as they have grown in their own domestic markets. There will be increased movement around CEE and increasingly into more mature markets that match their target customers.

■ Multi-channel retailing is increasing across Europe but it has yet to really make its mark in some parts of Europe, notably Central and Eastern Europe. Online retailing, however, is increasing as more people acquire access to the Internet.

■ Online retailers have been highlighted by retailers, particularly from the US and the more mature western, northern and southern markets of Europe, as being the ones to watch in 2008.

■ The coming year will remain challenging for retailers with many factors over which they have limited control working to infl uence their ultimate performance.

■ Retailing has always been a competitive industry where innovation and cost controls are fundamental. The movement of retailers across international boundaries will help to challenge domestic and foreign retailers alike by providing something new to consumers and retail locations across the continent.

By Yvonne Court and Rachel Hillel, Cushman & Wakefield

PH

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A CLOSE LOOK AT THE GLOBAL RETAIL MARKET A CLOSE LOOK AT THE GLOBAL RETAIL MARKET ICSC EUROPE ■ REP ■ CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD ICSC EUROPE ■ REP ■ CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD

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LRLR

Who was interviewed?

Graph 1 shows that the majority (60%) of retail companies inter-viewed were of Western or Northern European1 origin. A further 16% of respondents were from Southern Europe2, 10% from the US and 8% from Central and Eastern Europe3 (CEE). Relative to last year, the survey respondents are much more geographically spread with greater representation from CEE, (4% of respondents last year). It should be noted that this has a bearing on the results and it is therefore not easy to compare them with last year’s.

Number of fascias

The survey showed that 64% of the retailers only operate one fascia (graph 2); slightly higher than last year’s 59%. A quarter of retailers have two or three fascias, while only 11% operate more than three fascias. Similar to last year, only three retailers operate more than 15 fascias and the highest number of fascias under one parent company is 40.

Retail sector

Many of the retailers interviewed are involved in more than one sector (graph 3). Unsurprisingly, and as was the case last year, the most popular sector was clothing and accessories (38%), similar to last year Food & Drink specialist stores were the second most popular (14%) followed by Foot-wear (11%). These two sectors have switched positions in the ranking from last year. A couple of sectors, namely Health and Beauty services and IT are not represented this year. Home prod-ucts (including electrical goods, household goods, gifts and deco-rative homewares, DIY/garden-ing, household textiles & soft furnishings, furniture and carpets) account for a third of retailers.

Number of stores in home country

Again the size of the retailers’ company (measured in terms of the number of domestic stores) is evenly spread across the size bands (graph 4). 1) Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Fin-land, France, Germany, Norway, Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland, Re-public of Ireland, the UK, 2) Greece, Italy, Spain, Turkey, 3) Pola nd, Russia, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Estonia, Latvia, Slovenia, Romania, Hungary.

GRAPH 2 – NUMBER OF FASCIAS GRAPH 4 – NUMBER OF STORES

Home products account for a third of retailers.

25% retailers 2 or 3 stores

11% retailers with more than 3 stores

64% retailers 1 store

37% 11-100 stores

32% 100+ stores

31% 0-10 stores

GRAPH 1: COUNTRY OF ORIGIN

France

Germany

UK

USA

Italy

Austria

Spain

Belgium

Sweden

Poland

Ireland

Russia

The Netherlands

Czech Republic

Finland

Denmark

Croatia

Switzerland

Turkey

Estonia

Latvia

Greece

Slovenia

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%

12

12

12

10

10

6

5

4

4

4

3

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Clothing and accessories

Food/drink specialist store

Footwear

Electrical goods

Hypermarket/supermarket/grocers

Household goods, gifts and decorative homewares

Jewelry

DIY and gardening

Health and beauty store

Household textiles and soft furnishings

Sporting goods

Furniture and carpets

Music, video and computer games

Department/variety store

Opticians

Books and stationery

Telecommunications e.g. mobile phones

Confectionery

Toys, games and crafts

Health and beauty services e.g. hairdressing

IT/computers

38

14

11

8

8

7

7

6

6

5

4

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

GRAPH 3 – RETAIL SECTOR

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

% Representation by all retailers

PHOTO: AGE/ANP

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Turnover

In common with last year, the majority of retailers recorded €100 million+ turnovers in the preceding 12 months. Some 31% cited turnovers of €21-€60 million while a further 22% recorded turnovers of €61-€100 million (graph 5).

Graph 6 highlights the propor-tion of the total turnover that is attributable to non-domestic operations. Just as last year, a high proportion of companies (27%) said that less than 10% of their sales come from non-domestic sales. Over half (57%) of companies said that between

11% and 50% of their total sales is attributable to non-domestic operations. Only 8% of compa-nies say that 60% or more of their sales are a result of non-domestic operations, which is slightly less than last year.

Reasons for international expansion

The majority of retailers (54%) identifi ed opportunities offered by ‘organic expansion’ as the key driver in their international expansion (graph 7). It was mainly retailers from the US and CEE who cited this as their main reason for expansion. ‘Limited expansion opportunities in the domestic market’ ranked second (42%) followed by ‘iden-tifi ed/offered suitable franchisees to expand business’ (30%).

Cross-border locations

Retailers were asked into which countries outside of their domes-tic markets they had expanded (see graph 8). With 26% each, France and Spain are the most popular desti-nations, followed by Belgium, Germany and UK (25% each), Austria, Italy (20%), the Netherlands, Switzerland (18%), the Czech Republic, Portugal and Russia (17%).

Over the last two years those countries falling in the top 10 preferred locations have been identical. The main difference this year in the countries appearing in the top 10 is the introduction of the Czech Republic and the descent of Ireland from rank 8 to 13.

Types of locations in other markets

Graph 9 shows that like last year, high streets remain the preferred locations. Matching last year’s fi gure, 73% of retailers favor this location type, 46% favor in-town shopping centers and 35% locate in out-of-town shopping centers.

The overall ranking of locations this year is the same as last year with hypermarket/supermarkets, travel termini and factory outlets all represented, but all with less than 15% respectively. Therefore the fact that retailers tend to trade in more than one location prompted a variety of answers.

GRAPH 5 – TURNOVER IN PAST 12 MONTHS

GRAPH 6 – TURNOVER ATTRIBUTABLE TO NON-DOMESTIC OPERATIONS

29% €100+ mln.21% €21-40 mln.17% €61-80 mln.10% €41- 60 mln.

5% €10-20 mln.5% €81-100 mln. 3% Don’t know/refused10% Under €10 mln.

27% 1-10%19% 11-20%18% 21-30%12% 31-40%

8% 41-50% 4% Don’t know4% 51-60%8% 60+%

GRAPH 7– REASONS FOR INTERNATIONAL EXPANSION60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%Identifi ed/off ered

opportunities elsewhere for

organic expansion

Expansion opportunities in domestic market

limited

Identifi ed/off ered suitable franchisees to expand business

Identifi ed/off ered target companies for

acquisition

Identifi ed/off ered opportunities for

joint ventures

Other

54

42

3026

13

0

GRAPH 8 – CURRENT INTERNATIONAL REPRESENTATION (CROSS-BORDER LOCATIONS)30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

111122

55566

77788

9910

111112

14141515

1616171717

1818

2020

2525252626

>20

15-20

5-100-5

GRAPH 9 – TYPES OF LOCATION

Traditional high street/downtown location

Shopping center – in-town/city centers

Shopping center – out-of-town locations

Edge-of-town retail warehouse

Hypermarket or food superstore

Travel termini – airports/railway stations, etc.

Factory outlet centers

Industrial/commercial park

Leisure/holiday park

Other

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

73

46

35

30

14

12

7

2

1

0

Fran

ce

Spai

n Be

lgiu

m

Ger

man

y UK

Au

stri

aIta

lyTh

e N

ethe

rlan

dsSw

itzer

land

Czec

h Re

publ

ic

Port

ugal

Russ

iaIre

land

Swed

enD

enm

ark

Pola

ndH

unga

ryN

orw

ayFi

nlan

dEs

toni

aG

reec

eCr

oatia

Luxe

mbo

urg

Slov

enia

Bulg

aria

Slov

ak R

epub

licLa

tvia

Mal

taTu

rkey

Cypr

usLi

thua

nia

Icel

and

Rom

ania

Ukra

ine

Bosn

iaO

ther

Mon

aco

Ando

rra

Lich

tens

tein

Serb

ia

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10-15

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In m2

Store size

Just as last year, the majority of retailers (21%) have stores between 301 and 500 m2. Some 12% of retailers gave their average store size as 501-1,000 m2, and 11% have stores with fewer than 50 m2 (graph 10). The top three most popular store sizes are the same as last year. The average size of stores in Western/Northern Europe is 1,162 m2 compared to an average

of only 688 m2 in Southern Europe. The average store size among CEE retailers lies in between, but closer to that of Western/Northern Europe.

Preferred method of entry/operation in a new market

There are various factors that help determine where retailers choose to open new stores and how the stores are operated including method of entry into the market, the level of maturity

of the brand, and the extent of the existing store network within the country. When retailers were asked which was their preferred method of entry into a market there was a clear tendency towards a direct/organic approach (82%). A fifth said via a franchise and a further fifth (graph 11) stated that a joint venture with a local partner was their preferred method. These results are largely in line with those for the previous two years.

Direct/organic Franchise Joint venture with local partner

Shop-in-shop/consession

Remote shopping channels, e.g. mail order, direct selling,

internet, etc.

Under licence

Current method of distribution

When expanding abroad it is essential that retailers have the correct and efficient distribution channels in place. The majority of retailers surveyed currently operate their own distribution center in their home country (53%). This is significantly higher than last year where 38% stated this as their main method. Unlike last year, this method was greatly favored by Eastern

European retailers – 75% favored this distribution method. The second most preferred method was distributing via a centralized facility (28%), followed by 17% using their distribution center in the new country (see graph 12).

Countries under consideration for expansion (two and five years)

Russia remains retailers’ pre-ferred location for expansion in the next two years (12%).

Similar to last year, the main focus and consideration for retailers over the coming two years will be CEE. High up on the list of potential expansion opportunities are the Czech Republic (10%), Romania (8%), Slovenia (7%) and Estonia (7%). A number of countries outside Europe have become the focus of attention for European retailers and as such were included in this year’s survey. The United Arab Emirates emerged as a high

Zara stores are franchised to local retailer companies in smaller and culturally different markets.

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

21

12

11

10

9

8

7

7

5

4

2

2

82

53

21 2017

6 5

Use own center in home country

Use centralized distribution center

Use center in new country

Outsource to third party

Combination of the above

Don’t know

28

17

12

9

1

PHOTO: ANP

>>

GRAPH 12 - METHODS OF DISTRIBUTION60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

GRAPH 11 - PREFERRED METHOD OF ENTRY/OPERATION IN INTERNATIONAL MARKETS100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

301-500

501-1,000

<50

151-200

101-150

1,001-2,500

51-80

201-300

5,001-10,000

2,501-5,000

81-100

10,000+

GRAPH 10 – STORE SIZE

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�������������������������������

priority for expansion (12%); the second most popular destination. An additional 12% of retailers said that they had no plans for expansion over the next couple of years.Over the next fi ve years expan-sion in the CEE is likely to con-tinue with 9% of retailers consid-ering Russia, 6% Slovakia, and 5% each for Bulgaria, Slovenia and Hungary (graph 13). However the proportion of retail-

ers considering Russia is signifi -cantly lower than last year (20%) with retailers now considering alternative markets. The distribu-tion of results across the poten-tial countries chosen is much more evenly spread this year. In line with the potential oppor-tunities for the next two years, the United Arab Emirates are identifi ed as an important emerg-ing market over the coming fi ve years, with 9% of retailers

acknowledging its potential and placing it on a par with Russia.

New stores

Retailers expect to open in the order of 2,900 stores in the next fi ve years across their new markets. Whether this happens will clearly be determined by the property opportunities available and other retail operational issues.

The key market identifi ed by the retailers for most expected store openings is unsurprisingly Russia (approximately 580 stores). Slovenia, Slovakia, France, Germany, the Czech Republic, Romania and Poland all had more than 100 store openings each.

Target cities in fi ve years time

Retailers were asked in which European cities where they had no representation they thought that they would be in fi ve years time. Table 1 shows the results in comparison to the previous two years. Again all of the major

CEE cities are represented in the top 20 cities. Moscow, with 44 retailers intending to open a store there, is once again highlighted as the city in which most retail-ers envisage themselves, fol-lowed by St. Petersburg where 37 retailers are seeking expan-sion. The main difference this year is the reduction in the number of Western and Northern European cities in the top 20.

Best value for money

Retailers were asked to identify the cities that offered best value for money relative to retail space. The results again suggest that retailers tend to view their home market as offering the best value for money and therefore are infl uenced by the sample. Cities within CEE were cited as being the best value for retail space; Tallinn has risen from 6th last year to that offering the best value. Moscow and Glasgow were joint-second followed by Budapest (graph 14).

Rank ’05 Rank ’06 Rank ’07

1 Moscow 1 Moscow 1 Moscow2 St. Petersburg 2 Prague 2 St. Petersburg3 Dublin 3 St. Petersburg 3 Prague Bucharest

5 Budapest 4 Bratislava 4 Bratislava Bratislava

7 Ljubljana 5 Budapest 5 Ljubljana Ljubljana

8 Prague 7 Tallinn 6 Sofi a Amsterdam

10 Sofi a 8 Sofi a 7 BucharestParis

Stockholm

13 Copenhagen 9 Bucharest 8 BudapestWarsaw

London

16 Geneva 10 Split 9 TallinnRigaWarsaw

Kyiv

17 Cork 14 Dublin 10 AmsterdamMilan Geneva KyivValetta

Madrid

16 Valetta 12 Berlin Zagreb Warsaw

18 Copenhagen 14 ZagrebVilnius CopenhagenMunich Riga

Vilnius 18 Stockholm

19 SplitParis

Geneva

Over the next five years 9% of retailers are considering to expand into

Russia, such as IKEA.

21

9 9

65 5 5 5

4 4 43 3 3 3 3 3

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 21 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

0 0

>>

Glasgow 2.4

Birmingham 1.6

London 1.6Düsseldorf 1.6

Lyon 1.6

Gdansk 1.6

Warsaw 1.6

Vilnius 1.6

Moscow 2.4

Tallinn 4.0

Budapest 2.0

Ljubljana 2.0

Split 1.6

% of total retailers

No

furt

her

plan

s Un

ited

Arab

Em

irat

esRu

ssia

Slov

ak R

epub

licBu

lgar

iaAs

iaH

unga

rySl

oven

iaCr

oatia

Czec

h Re

publ

icEs

toni

aSo

uth

Afri

caUk

rain

eRo

man

iaG

erm

any

Hon

g Ko

ngTh

e N

ethe

rlan

dsCh

ina

Sout

h Am

eric

aSw

itzer

land

Irela

ndIta

lyLi

thua

nia

Pola

ndSw

eden UK

Turk

ey

Aust

ria

Belg

ium

Cypr

usLa

tvia

Finl

and

Spai

nM

alta

Port

ugal

Fran

ceUS

AD

enm

ark

Oth

erN

orw

ayIn

dia

GRAPH 13 – EXPANSION OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

GRAPH 14 – BEST VALUE FOR RETAIL SPACE

Prague 2.0

TABLE 1: TOP 20 TARGET CITIES 2005-2007

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E-commerce and E-tailing

The number of consumers across Europe with access to the Internet continues to increase and with this the likelihood of them shopping online. Many retailers have adopted multi-channel retailing strate-gies, including transactional websites. There are, however, some parts of Europe where such strategies are less devel-oped, notably in Eastern Europe.

Retailers and websites

Retailers were asked whether they have a website, either for informa-tion or transactional purposes. Almost all retailers (87%) have a website of some description, and 13% do not have a website at all. The majority of those who do have a website have one for information purposes with only 18% having a transactional one. These results differ from those of last year as a consequence of the differences in sample and therefore they will not

be directly comparable. All retail-ers from the US with a European presence have a website of some type, as do the majority of retailers from Western/Northern European and Southern European countries (91% and 90% respectively). A lower proportion of retailers in CEE countries have websites with only 53% of retailers surveyed saying that they had one. While nearly all retailers have a website, the type and capacity of the web-sites varies greatly.

Any website Yes – transactional Yes – for information No website

Variety of websites across sectors

Graph 15 illustrates how web-sites vary across the different sectors. It is the clothing and accessories retailers that tend to have websites (94%) while fewer grocery retailers (69%) have one for any purpose. Of the grocery retailers who do have a website only 2% have one for transac-tional purposes compared to 26% of clothing retailers, 19% foot-wear and 15% household goods. Some grocery retailers already have efficient e-tailing opera-tions in their domestic markets and others are adapting to the shift in e-commerce.

However, of the 45 retailers that claimed to have a transactional website, only 4% said that more than 10% of their turnover goes through the transactional website. The majority of retailers (67%) said that only 1%-5% of turnover goes through the trans-actional website.

Current channels of retail distribution

Respondents were asked how their customers currently pur-chase goods from them.

Not surprisingly the most popular method is through physi-cal stores with all 250 retailers saying that customers come to their stores to buy goods. Telephone ordering was the second most popular method (35%). Mail order from paper catalogues was next (25%), fol-lowed by website purchasing (17%) and then via e-mail (6%). Graph 16 shows the methods of purchase across the sectors. In line with last year, retailers in the grocery sector are less likely to use different methods of sale with all retailers saying that they sell via physical stores. The only other methods of purchase used by grocery retailers were tele-phone ordering (9%) and website (1%); again this is a reflection of the geographic distribution of grocery retailers and, arguably, their stage of evolution. Customers of US retailers can purchase via 2.12 different methods on average followed by 1.89 methods for those of Western/Northern European origin.

Methods of purchase

Unsurprisingly, and as was the case last year, methods of pur-chase generally increased as the

turnovers of the retailers did, suggesting that larger companies have more sales methods available to them. Retailers with less than €20 million in turnover used on average 1.36 methods whereas companies with turn-overs in excess of €100 million used 2.04 methods (which is less than the average 2.22 methods recorded last year). It was, however, retailers with a turnover of €61-€100 million that had the greatest number of methods of purchase available to them (2.14).

Most successful countries

Retailers were asked to think about which were their most suc-cessful markets outside the home countries. Success was measured in terms of sales per square meter and/or profitability. In terms of overall success, whether measured on sales or profit, France leads with 22%, followed closely by the UK and Germany with 21% and 20% respectively. It is these three countries (Germany, followed by France and then the UK) where retailers experience most sales. However, greatest profitability is derived from Russia.

Twenty-six percent of clothing retailers have a website for transactional purposes.

Through physical stores

Via paper catalogues – telephone ordering

Via paper catalogues – mail

order

Via websites Via paper catalogues – e-mail ordering

Other

Grocers

Clothing/accessories

Household

Footwear

Other

69

9489 89

95

2

26

1519 19

67

89 8789 87

31

611 11

5

100 100 100 100 100

9

45

5356

3339

33

41

25

2

22

1519 19

4 26

13

1

Grocers

Clothing/accessories

Household

Footwear

Other

PH

OT

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HO

LLA

ND

SE H

OO

GT

E>>

GRAPH 15 – RETAILERS AND WEBSITES100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

120%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

GRAPH 16 – METHODS OF PURCHASE (CURRENT RETAIL CHANNELS OF DISTRIBUTION)

* will not sum as multiple answers were allowed

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Countries with best business prospects

Eastern Europe is considered to offer the best business prospects by the majority of retailers (39%). Central Europe follows closely behind with 36% (graph 17). Last year these two regions were ranked second and third, respec-tively, but this year they have overtaken Western/Northern Europe pushing it into third place. The increasing and improving economic situation in CEE is having a positive effect on the retail environment and encourag-ing foreign investment. Retailers from the US appear to be relatively confident about countries in CEE, instead they are likely to focus their attention on Western and

Northern Europe. It is the CEE retailers themselves who greatly believe that their region offers the best business prospects over the coming years. And while the Western and Northern European retailers also believe in the potential of CEE countries, they also believe that their own region still has a lot to offer.

Importance of issues impacting on retailing

Retailers were asked on a scale of one (not very likely) to ten (very likely), the likelihood of some issues impacting on retail-ing in the next 12 months. Table 2 shows the average score (like-lihood) of each issue by region (figures in red indicate where the

‘scores’ are above the survey average). As last year, most retailers believe that ‘the performance of the economy’ will be the most likely issue to affect the retailing business over the next year. This is the issue of greatest concern for retailers in all regions and for all sectors. The second highest scoring concern is ‘prop-erty occupancy costs’, with an average score of 8.02. This issue has maintained its position in the rankings from last year. As was seen last year, regional variations become more preva-lent amongst the other issues, for example ‘multi-channel retailing’ is believed to be less of an issue to CEE retailers than for those from elsewhere. Similarly, it is the CEE retailers who are less concerned with ‘sustainability and becoming carbon neutral’ than Western European retailers – a theme addressed elsewhere. Sustainability is in fact the issue of least concern in general. Eastern European retailers, however, are most concerned about ‘venture capitalists moving in’, with an average score of 6.67, significantly higher than the survey mean of 5.77.

Similar to last year, ‘multi channel retailing’ is of high concern to US companies. In general all regions are now more concerned about this issue than last year, but it is in fact Southern European retailers who regard this with the most concern.

Greatest impact

The retailers were then asked which three of the issues are likely to have the greatest impact on their business. The results largely reflect the findings from the issues that are likely to affect the retailing business in general. The only major difference being ‘sustainability’ and ‘consumers ethical concerns’ will affect their businesses whilst ‘venture capi-

talists moving in’ is viewed as more important than ‘workforce availability’.

Retailers to watch in 2008

The retailers to watch for in 2008 are significantly different from those named last year for 2007. Over 40 different retailers were mentioned. However for the first time, online retailers (no particular ones were named) will be the most eagerly watched in 2008 (table 3). They are followed by Marks & Spencer, which has increased its positioning by two places. Last year Carrefour and Wal-Mart were ranked first and second respec-tively, but this year they have dropped to joint-third companies to watch. IKEA remains in third

place but has been joined by Zara and H&M. Only those retailers mentioned by at least 3% of respondents are listed.When asked the reasons for their opinions, the main overall reasons given were that the named com-panies have ‘strong market posi-tion/share’ and that they are ‘developing/expanding/growing’. The top reason given last year was ‘have been successful/have had a good year’ but this reason is now ranked in sixth place. The second most popular reason given this year was ‘online shop-ping gaining popularity’ and this is in line with online retailers being identified as the main retailers to watch in the coming year.

Best business prospects are in the Central and Eastern European countries.

GRAPH 17 – BEST BUSINESS PROSPECTS FOR RETAILERS IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS

Eastern Europe

Central Europe

Western/Northern Europe

Elsewhere in the world

Southern Europe

39%

36%

30%

21%

12%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

TABLE 3 – RETAILERS TO WATCH 2008

OverallWestern/

NorthernSouthern

Central/

EasternUS

1 Online retailers Online retailers Online retailers Pyatyorochka Wal-Mart

2 Marks & Spencer IKEA Zara Aldi Amazon

Marks & Spencer Gap

3 IKEA Carrefour Tesco Tesco Dolland & Aitchison

Carrefour Tchibo

Wal-Mart Starbucks

Zara Gap

H&M

4 Gap H&M Mango

Tesco

5 Wal-Mart

Zara

Metro

Primark

PH

OT

O:

IMA

GES

ELEC

T/A

LAM

Y<<

TABLE 2 – ISSUES OF CONCERN TO RETAILERS BY REGION

Survey

average

Western/Northern average

Southern

average

Central

average

European

average

US

average

Performance of the economy 8.38 8.4 8.34 7.85 8.75 8.6

Property occupancy costs 8.02 7.97 8.05 8.45 8.08 7.84

Multi-channel retailing 7.38 7.44 7.71 6.85 6 7.56

Workforce availability 6.17 6.18 6.51 5.85 5.42 6.12

Consumers' ethical concerns 5.86 6.09 5.83 5.1 4.5 5.76

Venture capitalists moving in 5.77 5.68 6.2 5.85 6.67 5.16

Sustainability/becoming carbon neutral

4.04 4.12 3.8 3.75 3.33 4.56

RETAIL SPACE EUROPE 2008440

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RETAIL SPACE EUROPE 2008 441

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