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Variations on Open AccessVariations on Open AccessA study of the financial and nonA study of the financial and non--financial effects of financial effects of alternative business models for scholarly journals alternative business models for scholarly journals
Preliminary results presented 8 November 2004Preliminary results presented 8 November 2004by Kaufmanby Kaufman--Wills Group, LLCWills Group, LLC
KaufmanKaufman--Wills GroupWills Group 22ALPSP/HW/AAAS studyALPSP/HW/AAAS study
Research ObjectivesResearch Objectives
1.1. What impact is open access having on What impact is open access having on scholarly journals’ financial factors?scholarly journals’ financial factors?
2.2. What impact is open access having on What impact is open access having on scholarly journals’ nonscholarly journals’ non--financial factors?financial factors?
KaufmanKaufman--Wills GroupWills Group 33ALPSP/HW/AAAS studyALPSP/HW/AAAS study
MethodsMethods
llWritten questionnaireWritten questionnairell 38 questions38 questionsll emailed to populationemailed to populationll PrePre--testedtested
ll Two populationsTwo populationsll HW open archive journalsHW open archive journalsllN=184N=184
ll Directory of Open Access JournalsDirectory of Open Access JournalsllN=1,151N=1,151
KaufmanKaufman--Wills GroupWills Group 44ALPSP/HW/AAAS studyALPSP/HW/AAAS study
ResponseResponse
ll HW open archiveHW open archivell 184 mailed184 mailedll 68 completed68 completedll 37% response rate37% response rate
ll DOAJDOAJll 1,151 mailed1,151 mailedll 245 completed245 completedll 22% response rate22% response rate
ll Preliminary results:Preliminary results:ll 155 DOAJ (13%)155 DOAJ (13%)ll 37 HW (20%)37 HW (20%)
90%à95% confidence, + or – 5% points
KaufmanKaufman--Wills GroupWills Group 55ALPSP/HW/AAAS studyALPSP/HW/AAAS study
FindingsFindings
FinancialFinancialll Current and future accessCurrent and future accessll Sources of financial Sources of financial
support for journalsupport for journalll % of total each revenue % of total each revenue
type representstype representsll Revenue trends and Revenue trends and
expectationsexpectationsll Surplus or deficitSurplus or deficit
NonNon--financialfinancialll Print formatPrint formatll CopyeditingCopyeditingll Peer reviewPeer reviewll Author servicesAuthor servicesll CopyrightCopyrightll Pre/postPre/post--publishing rightspublishing rightsll Permissions policiesPermissions policies
KaufmanKaufman--Wills GroupWills Group 66ALPSP/HW/AAAS studyALPSP/HW/AAAS study
Journal ProfileJournal ProfileHW open archiveHW open archive
ll 97% soc, 3% u press97% soc, 3% u pressll 60% Euro, 40% NA60% Euro, 40% NAll 97% STM97% STMll 95% orig, 5% review95% orig, 5% reviewll 97% print + online97% print + online
ll Half <1960 printHalf <1960 printll Half <2000 onlineHalf <2000 onlinell 78% online posted w/print; 78% online posted w/print;
13% asap 13% asap ll 11% addl online material11% addl online material
ll >50% at least monthly>50% at least monthlyll Avg # mss sub/yr: 973Avg # mss sub/yr: 973ll Avg # arts pub/yr: 329Avg # arts pub/yr: 329
DOAJDOAJll 46% comml, 17% dept, 16% 46% comml, 17% dept, 16%
soc, 7% indivsoc, 7% indivll 58% Euro, 28% NA, 14% 58% Euro, 28% NA, 14%
ROWROWll 72% STM, 12% SS, 9% 72% STM, 12% SS, 9%
humanitieshumanitiesll 100% original content100% original contentll 74% online only74% online only
ll Half <1990 printHalf <1990 printll Half <2000 onlineHalf <2000 onlinell 69% post articles asap69% post articles asap
ll 10% Q, 90% other, N/A10% Q, 90% other, N/All Avg # mss sub/yr: 108Avg # mss sub/yr: 108ll Avg # arts pub/yr: 46 Avg # arts pub/yr: 46
KaufmanKaufman--Wills GroupWills Group 77ALPSP/HW/AAAS studyALPSP/HW/AAAS study
Online HostingOnline Hosting
HW open archiveHW open archivell Current contentCurrent contentll 100% HW 100% HW
ll Archival contentArchival contentll 60% PMC 60% PMC
DOAJDOAJll Current contentCurrent contentll 71% own service71% own servicell 45% PMC45% PMCll 39% JSTOR39% JSTOR
ll Archival contentArchival contentll 56% other (SciELO)56% other (SciELO)ll 45% PMC45% PMCll 39% INIST39% INIST
KaufmanKaufman--Wills GroupWills Group 88ALPSP/HW/AAAS studyALPSP/HW/AAAS study
Peer ReviewPeer Review
HW open archiveHW open archivell 70% int + ext rev70% int + ext revll 24% ext rev only24% ext rev onlyll 2.5% edit staff only2.5% edit staff onlyll 2.5% no peer review2.5% no peer review
ll 76% 2 reviewers76% 2 reviewersll 16% 3 reviewers16% 3 reviewers
DOAJDOAJll 49% int + ext rev49% int + ext revll 45% ext rev only45% ext rev onlyll 2% edit staff only2% edit staff only
ll 70% 2 reviewers70% 2 reviewersll 21% 3 reviewers21% 3 reviewers
KaufmanKaufman--Wills GroupWills Group 99ALPSP/HW/AAAS studyALPSP/HW/AAAS study
Editing and CopyeditingEditing and Copyediting
HW open archiveHW open archivell 42% content edited42% content editedll 95% copyedited95% copyedited
DOAJDOAJll 44% content edited44% content editedll 55% copyedited55% copyedited
KaufmanKaufman--Wills GroupWills Group 1010ALPSP/HW/AAAS studyALPSP/HW/AAAS study
Author ServicesAuthor ServicesAuthor Services
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1
Services
Res
pons
es
PDF or other electronic format proofs
Online article submission
Online tracking of paper through peer-reviewprocessOnline digital art submission
PDF for posting on Author's web site
Limited/Unlimited e-prints or downloads
Post publication peer review
Online tracking of paper from submissionthrough publicationNone of the above
Other
Author Services - DOAJ Journals
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1
Services
Res
pons
es
PDF or other electronic format proofs
Online article submission
Online tracking of paper through peer-reviewprocessOnline digital art submission
PDF for posting on Author's web site
Limited/Unlimited e-prints or downloads
Post publication peer review
Online tracking of paper from submissionthrough publicationNone of the above
Other
KaufmanKaufman--Wills GroupWills Group 1111ALPSP/HW/AAAS studyALPSP/HW/AAAS study
CopyrightCopyright
HW open archiveHW open archivell 64% request author 64% request author
to grant license to to grant license to publishpublish
ll 30% make copyright 30% make copyright transfer condition of transfer condition of publicationpublication
ll 6% will grant license 6% will grant license if requested by authorif requested by author
DOAJDOAJll 50% request author 50% request author
to grant license to to grant license to publishpublish
ll 23% do not require 23% do not require any formal agreementany formal agreement
ll 16% make copyright 16% make copyright transfer condition of transfer condition of publicationpublication
KaufmanKaufman--Wills GroupWills Group 1212ALPSP/HW/AAAS studyALPSP/HW/AAAS study
Permissions PoliciesPermissions Policies
HW open archiveHW open archivell 89% only with written permission89% only with written permissionll 11% any academic use but no 11% any academic use but no
commercial use w/o permissioncommercial use w/o permission
ll 70% use in author’s institution70% use in author’s institutionll 86% use in author’s 86% use in author’s
presentations or publicationspresentations or publications
ll 70% posting post70% posting post--print to print to author’s web siteauthor’s web site
ll 54% posting pre54% posting pre--print to author’s print to author’s web siteweb site
DOAJDOAJll 10% only with written permission10% only with written permissionll 18% any academic use but no 18% any academic use but no
commercial use w/o permissioncommercial use w/o permissionll 68% all uses if source cited68% all uses if source citedll 10% all uses, no permission 10% all uses, no permission
necessarynecessary
ll 12% use in author’s institution12% use in author’s institutionll 13% use in author’s 13% use in author’s
presentations or publicationspresentations or publications
ll 8% posting post8% posting post--print to author’s print to author’s web siteweb site
KaufmanKaufman--Wills GroupWills Group 1313ALPSP/HW/AAAS studyALPSP/HW/AAAS study
Access to ContentAccess to Content
HW open archiveHW open archivell 95% restrict current 95% restrict current
content; open archivecontent; open archivell OA “influentials”OA “influentials”
ll 68% publisher/68% publisher/publishing oversight publishing oversight
ll 43% librarians43% librariansll 43% OA proponents43% OA proponentsll 35% members35% membersll 30% authors30% authorsll 8% other similar journals8% other similar journals
DOAJDOAJll 95% free on publication95% free on publicationll OA “influentials”OA “influentials”
ll 56% authors56% authorsll 49% publisher (BMC)49% publisher (BMC)ll 16% publications staff16% publications staffll 15% members15% membersll 19% OA proponents19% OA proponentsll 11% institutions11% institutionsll 8% librarians8% librariansll 8% other similar journals8% other similar journals
KaufmanKaufman--Wills GroupWills Group 1414ALPSP/HW/AAAS studyALPSP/HW/AAAS study
Business ModelBusiness Model
HW open archiveHW open archivell 95% require subs for 95% require subs for
current contentcurrent contentll 81% plan to test or 81% plan to test or
adopt different modeladopt different modelll New funding sourcesNew funding sourcesll New financial modelNew financial modelll Original articles freeOriginal articles freell Open access, author Open access, author
pays pays
DOAJDOAJll 95% free content on 95% free content on
publicationpublicationll 49% plan to test or 49% plan to test or
adopt different modeladopt different model
KaufmanKaufman--Wills GroupWills Group 1515ALPSP/HW/AAAS studyALPSP/HW/AAAS study
Funding SourcesFunding Sources
HW open archiveHW open archivell End user End user
ll 87% subscriptions 87% subscriptions ll 62% member dues62% member duesll 57% content licensing57% content licensing
ll Industry Industry ll 92% comml reprints92% comml reprintsll 78% display ads78% display adsll 30% classified ads30% classified ads
ll InIn--kindkindll 35% volunteer35% volunteer
DOAJDOAJll End userEnd user
ll 13% subscriptions13% subscriptionsll 8% member dues8% member dues
ll GrantsGrantsll 39% gifts or fundraising39% gifts or fundraisingll 23% institutional 23% institutional ll 13% private foundation13% private foundation
ll InIn--kindkindll 20% volunteer20% volunteerll 20% in20% in--kind contributionskind contributions
KaufmanKaufman--Wills GroupWills Group 1616ALPSP/HW/AAAS studyALPSP/HW/AAAS study
Revenue Sources as % Revenue Sources as % of Total (preliminary!)of Total (preliminary!)
Revenue Sources - 2004DOAJ Journals
6%
16%
0%
6%
14%
47%
11%
Subscriptions/LicensesGrantsThird-Party LicensesAuthor Fees and ChargesIndustryMember DuesOther
Revenue Sources - 2004Highwire Journals
60%
1%3%
9%
12%2%
13%
Based on mean, which is arithmetic average (add percentages, divide by N.) Journals in each population, when asked to allocate percentages to various revenue sources, reported receiving on average X% of their revenue from Y.
KaufmanKaufman--Wills GroupWills Group 1717ALPSP/HW/AAAS studyALPSP/HW/AAAS study
Author FeesAuthor FeesHW open archiveHW open archive
ll Author fees 9% of total Author fees 9% of total revenuesrevenuesll 91% article reprints91% article reprintsll 83% color charges83% color chargesll 17% page charges17% page chargesll 11% excess page charges11% excess page chargesll 9% ms submission charges9% ms submission charges
ll Sources of author fundsSources of author fundsll 60% don’t know60% don’t knowll 34% research grant34% research grantll 31% foundation grant31% foundation grantll 3% library budget3% library budgetll 29% departmental support29% departmental supportll 25% author’s personal funds25% author’s personal fundsll 9% do not charge authors9% do not charge authors
DOAJDOAJll Author fees 47% of total Author fees 47% of total
revenues (BMC)revenues (BMC)ll 88% page charges88% page chargesll 37% submission charges37% submission chargesll 8% publication charges8% publication chargesll 5% color charges5% color chargesll 4% article reprints4% article reprints
ll Sources of author fundsSources of author fundsll 3% don’t know3% don’t knowll 51% research grant51% research grantll 6% foundation grant6% foundation grantll 41% library budget41% library budgetll 10% departmental support10% departmental supportll 7% author’s personal funds7% author’s personal fundsll 33% do not charge authors33% do not charge authors
KaufmanKaufman--Wills GroupWills Group 1818ALPSP/HW/AAAS studyALPSP/HW/AAAS study
Financial OutlookFinancial OutlookHW open archiveHW open archive
ll 75% surplus75% surplusll 11% breakeven11% breakevenll 14% shortfall14% shortfall
ll 61% trended upward61% trended upwardll 22% stayed flat22% stayed flatll 11% trended downward11% trended downwardll 6% don’t know6% don’t know
ll 25% exceeded revenue 25% exceeded revenue expectationsexpectations
ll 39% met revenue expectations39% met revenue expectationsll 36% below revenue expectations36% below revenue expectations
DOAJDOAJll 5% surplus5% surplusll 32% breakeven32% breakevenll 63% shortfall63% shortfall
ll 64% trended upward64% trended upwardll 19% stayed flat19% stayed flatll 3% trended downward3% trended downwardll 14% don’t know14% don’t know
ll 3% exceeded revenue 3% exceeded revenue expectationsexpectations
ll 87% met revenue expectations87% met revenue expectationsll 10% below revenue 10% below revenue
expectationsexpectations
KaufmanKaufman--Wills GroupWills Group 1919ALPSP/HW/AAAS studyALPSP/HW/AAAS study
Current Business Model ChallengesCurrent Business Model Challenges
HW open archiveHW open archivell “Loss of individual “Loss of individual
subscribers”subscribers”ll “Acceptance of online “Acceptance of online
journals by subscribers”journals by subscribers”ll “Increasing institutional “Increasing institutional
subscriptions”subscriptions”
DOAJDOAJll “This is not a business, “This is not a business,
it’s an effort”it’s an effort”ll “No business model”“No business model”ll “Seeking additional “Seeking additional
funding and donations funding and donations when initial funding runs when initial funding runs out”out”
ll “Increasing usage”“Increasing usage”ll “Acquiring good papers “Acquiring good papers
and reviewers”and reviewers”
KaufmanKaufman--Wills GroupWills Group 2020ALPSP/HW/AAAS studyALPSP/HW/AAAS study
Current business model opportunitiesCurrent business model opportunities
HW open archiveHW open archivell “Reach of journal via search “Reach of journal via search
engines”engines”ll “International subscribers, “International subscribers,
reduce rates to residents”reduce rates to residents”
DOAJDOAJll “Not sure what this “Not sure what this
means…we are a nonprofit means…we are a nonprofit enterprise”enterprise”
ll “Hope to continue to “Hope to continue to provide free access …to provide free access …to benefit society”benefit society”
ll “Full text free of charge “Full text free of charge available to all”available to all”
ll “Hope to win more “Hope to win more readership and listing in readership and listing in libraries and databases”libraries and databases”
ll “Help mankind acquire “Help mankind acquire knowledge”knowledge”
KaufmanKaufman--Wills GroupWills Group 2121ALPSP/HW/AAAS studyALPSP/HW/AAAS study
Impact of OA MovementImpact of OA Movement
HW open archiveHW open archivell “Creates whole new “Creates whole new
dilemma for financing dilemma for financing journals”journals”
ll “Very little NIH research “Very little NIH research published”published”
DOAJDOAJll “Validates what we have “Validates what we have
been trying to do…”been trying to do…”ll “Put pressure on others “Put pressure on others
to make important to make important information on scientific information on scientific progress available to progress available to everyone”everyone”
ll “Raises acceptability, “Raises acceptability, helps hold down prices”helps hold down prices”
ll “None. References will be “None. References will be easier to check.”easier to check.”
KaufmanKaufman--Wills GroupWills Group 2222ALPSP/HW/AAAS studyALPSP/HW/AAAS study
Will OA Journals Prevail?Will OA Journals Prevail?HW open archiveHW open archive
ll “Open access journals will only be “Open access journals will only be prevalent and/or succeed if the prevalent and/or succeed if the financing issue is addressed and financing issue is addressed and solved”solved”
ll “No, doubt successful due to “No, doubt successful due to financial issues”financial issues”
ll “Prevalent perhaps, but I don’t “Prevalent perhaps, but I don’t know if small association know if small association publishers can be successful publishers can be successful without adding higher charges to without adding higher charges to authors”authors”
DOAJDOAJll “Prevalent in some fields and may “Prevalent in some fields and may
be mandated by nature of the be mandated by nature of the funding of the research published”funding of the research published”
ll “I believe that it MAY become “I believe that it MAY become prevalent. So, I don’t want to miss prevalent. So, I don’t want to miss the boat. Its success will depend the boat. Its success will depend on institutional and governmental on institutional and governmental policy”policy”
ll “Yes, eventually”“Yes, eventually”ll “Yes, yes, the model works”“Yes, yes, the model works”ll “Success will not be “Success will not be
complete…most of the famous, complete…most of the famous, high ranking journals will give high ranking journals will give restricted access…”restricted access…”
ll Paid subscriptions are an Paid subscriptions are an “offensive contravention of the “offensive contravention of the opportunities for freedom in opportunities for freedom in knowledge exchange that the knowledge exchange that the Internet should provide”Internet should provide”
KaufmanKaufman--Wills GroupWills Group 2323ALPSP/HW/AAAS studyALPSP/HW/AAAS study
Next StepsNext Steps
ll QuantitativeQuantitativell Survey AAMC society members with journals (N=111)Survey AAMC society members with journals (N=111)ll Finish data entry, analyze frequency tables, prepare Finish data entry, analyze frequency tables, prepare
reportreportll QualitativeQualitativell 30 personal interviews 30 personal interviews àà case reportscase reports
ll HW open archive publishersHW open archive publishersll PLoS and other DOAJ publishersPLoS and other DOAJ publishersll Elsevier and other commercial publishersElsevier and other commercial publishersll University Press, other nonUniversity Press, other non--HW selfHW self--published society published society
journalsjournals
ll TimeframeTimeframell Draft report to sponsors for review by end of yearDraft report to sponsors for review by end of year
KaufmanKaufman--Wills GroupWills Group 2424ALPSP/HW/AAAS studyALPSP/HW/AAAS study
KaufmanKaufman--Wills Group, LLCWills Group, LLC
Cara S. Kaufman, PartnerAlma J. Wills, PartnerFred Fusting, AssociateKaufman-Wills Group, LLC24 Aintree RoadBaltimore, MD 21286410 821 8035 (office)410 821 5460 (mobile)443 269 0283 (e-fax)[email protected]
Selected clients•AAAS/Science•Am Academy Pediatrics•Am Assoc Immunologists•Am Coll Cardiology•Am Coll Radiology•American Psychiatric Assoc•Am Soc Clin Oncology•ASPET•College Am Pathologists•Rockefeller University Press•Intl Anesthesia Res Soc•NEJM•Project Hope/Health Affairs•Am Acad Othopaedic Surg•Am Urological Association•Am Speech Lang Hear Assoc