6 Future Trends

8/3/2019 6 Future Trends

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Q1. Give the detailed specifications of

a computer system, capable of running

the multimedia applications.

Ans. Probably one of the most commonupgrades is addition multimedia capability toyour PC. This typically includes adding a CD-ROM drive and sound card to the system.Although you can add one and not the other,it’s unlike you will because today’smultimedia titles make extensive use of sound, and nearly all come on CD rather thandisk. You can buy CD-ROM drives and soundcards separately, or you can opt for amultimedia kit. These multimedia kits include

a CD-ROM drive, sound card and usually aselection titles on CD. Even if you’re notplanning to buy and multimedia titles now orin the future, you still might want to add aCD-ROM drive and sound card. While mostsoftware has traditionally been distributed onfloppy disk, an increasing number of software

publishers are distributing their software onCD. This trend makes sense for thepublishers: CDs are cheaper to mass-producethan floppy disk sets, and the CD enables thepublisher to distribute much larger programsand support materials than would bepractical with a floppy. So, if you want to be

able to continue to upgrade your software



and buy new software, you’ll have to have aCD-ROM drive in your system. With theadvent of voice messaging systems for the

computer and voice e-mail, the sound cardbecomes an important productivity tool inaddition to an add- on for playing games. So,a multimedia upgrade makes sense fornearly any system that lacks multimediacapability. If you’re also considering replacingthe motherboard capability .If you’re also

considering replacing the motherboard,however, take a close look at buying a newsystem instead. You might find that whenyou total all your upgrades, a new system isonly a few hundred dollars more. Unless youcan’t find the combination of CD-ROM driveand sound card that you want, buying amultimedia kit makes sense. All thecomponents, cables, and drivers you needare included in the kit makes sense. Allcomponents, cables, and drivers you needare included in the kit, along with a niceselection of software to get you started.

To display multimediaapplications you need at least 64K colors or32K colors if your adapter supports it. Themost realistic photographs and full motionvideos are achieved with 1 6M colors but 64Kis often quite adequate. For standardbusiness applications, such as word

processing and spread sheets, either 16 or



256 colors will surface. Many online servicesand internet sites require a minimum of 256colors while 64 is even better. What

determines your maximum resolution andcolor depth is the amount of memory on thevideo card often, you can select how muchmemory you want on your video card, suchas 512 K, 1 M, 2M, 4M or more .the extramemory does not speed up your video cardrather it allows your monitor to display more

colors and higher resolutions for 256 colorsdrawn from a palette of 256,000, you needat least 512 K of video memory. At 1024X768 pixels you need at least 1 M. If youcurrently don’t need this ability, bypass theextra memory. The next generations of videocards will probably provide other featuresyou may need .You easily can calculate theminimum amount of memory you will needon your video card :( Maximum horizontalresolution Color depth in bits) /8192minimum Video memory(in K)For example, if you want SVGA resolution(800X600)with

65,536(64K colors),you would multiply thehorizontal resolution (800)by the verticalresolution(600) and the color depth( 16).



SECTION - C ( 10

MARKS )

Q1. Analyze the recent progress in theperipheral and bus system.



Ans. 1/0 buses connect the CPU to all othercomponents, expect RAM. Data are movedon the buses from one component to other,

and data from other components to the CPUand RAM. The 1/0 busses differ from thesystem bus in speed. Their speed will alwaysbe lower than the system bus speed. Overthe years, different I/O busses have beendeveloped. On modern Pentium PC’s you willfind at least two significant buses and one

less significant:

IAS bus: which is an older low speed bus?

PCI bus: Which is new high speed bus?

USB bus: which is a new low speed bus?

I/O buses are really derivatives from thesystem bus. On the system board it ends in acontroller chip, which forms a bridge to thetwo other buses.

Let us compare the two primary I/O buses:

Clearly, there is a vast difference betweenthe capacities of the two buses.

All in all, the buses have a vast centralplacement in the PC’s data exchange.



Actually, all components expect the CPUcommunicate with each other and with RAMvia the different I/O buses.

The physical aspects of the I/O buses

Physically, the 110 bus consists of one ormore tracks on the printed circuit board.

The bus width: The numbers of data tracksdetermine the data transfer capacity. The ISAbus is slow, partly because it only has 16data tracks. The modern PC’s send 32 bits

per clock tick. On the ISA bus, 32 bits mustbe divided in two packages of 16 bits. Thisdelay the data transfer.

Another I/O bus concept is wait states.

Wait states are small pauses. If an ISAadapter cannot keep up with the incomingdata flow, its controller sends wait states tothe CPU. Those are signals to the CPU to “hold on for a sec”. A wait state is wasted

clock tick. The CPU skips a clock tick,, when



not occupied. Thus the old and slow ISAadapter can significantly reduce theoperating speed of a modem computer.

Now that you are armed with the buzzworddefinitions, let’s compare the different bustypes.



construct a basic model for the technicaldevelopment of intelligent functions; andestablish theories of the model. This involves

physiology, psychology and linguistics.Implementation can take advantage of majorhardware advances in very large-scaleintegration.

2 Objectives for Promoting Knowledge

Science(1) Innovations in frontier high

technologies such as aerospace andmedicine, and Knowledge science will be thenucleus of innovation in informationtechnology.

(2) Contribution to societal, economicand cultural advancements

(i) Contribution to societal development

Versatile mass media, machine translationand expert systems will improve lifestyles,international relations, health/educational

services, and aid handicapped.

(ii) Contribution to economic development

Robots and CAD/CAM will upgradeproductivity and quality, and knowledgescience developments will create new

industries.



3 Basic Considerations in PromotingKnowledge Science

(1) Promotion of integrated research anddevelopment

To develop artificial intelligence technologystudies in human cognition and computerscience must be integrated through basic

research on knowledge science drawing onpsychology, physiology, logic, and linguistics.Applications studies should also be carriedout to stimulate basic research anddevelopment.

(2) Promotion of interdisciplinary researchand development

Networks and researcher mobility should beset up to promote interdisciplinary research.

(3) Promotion of long-term research anddevelopment

A long-term strategy should be established toincrease the number of researchers inknowledge science.



(ii) Problems in research and development tobe solved in the future

1) Syntactic analysis

Syntactic analysis is technically complete butnatural language is grammatically imperfectand metaphoric, and account must be takenof the influence of semantics and content.

2) Semantic analysis

There are problems in knowledgerepresentation, numbers, negation,temporality and anaphora.

3) Generation of sentences

Sentences have been generated by filling

slots but more general methods must bedeveloped.

4) Understanding paragraphs

The relation between language processingand the total contextual scene must be

analyzed.

(7) Technologies related to speechrecognition

(i) Present state

Restricted speaker/vocabulary recognizershave been developed for limited applications.



(ii Problems in research anddevelopment to be solved in the future

1) Research and development of technologies related to speech processing

a) Method for discriminating betweenexistence & nonexistence of speech at theacoustic level

It is important to establish measures for thepresence of speech.

3 Present state and future developmentof application systems

(1) Expert systems

(i) Present state

Expert systems in medicine, chemistry anddesign, in the USA and Japan, show thatknowledge science can be used to developeffective decision aids.

(ii) Problems ii research and development to

be solved in the future

1) Relationships with base technologies

a) Technologies related to knowledge

Technologies must be developed for: largeknowledge bases; knowledge representationincorporating time, causes and models; and

inference based on ambiguous knowledge.



Q2. Explain what are the steps to be

taken up to reduce the cost whiledesigning the system.

Ans. Cost-benefit Analysis and Cost-performance Analysis

Cost-performance and cost-benefit analyses

are ways of answering the questions, “Is thisworth doing?” and “How will we knowwhether it was worth it when we’re done?” These tools are methods for assessing thevalue of a project by comparing its costs tomeasures of its performance, or moregenerally to the value of benefits it produces.

The analysis requires accurate cost data, aswell as measures of performance inappropriate units and overall benefits.Cost- performance measurement isnarrower in that it deals only with measuresof performance as the basis forcomparison.

Cost and performance data can beobtained from operational records, directobservation, surveys, or group meetings atwhich those who perform the operationsreport and discuss costs andperformance measures. Both one-time costs

and ongoing costs should be included.



Measure system costs. Working out the costside of cost- benefit analysis requires carefulattention to what cost information is

relevant, what’s available, and how it can beinterpreted and used. Although it can seemlike a straightforward task, a comprehensivecost analysis can be quite complex anddemanding.

White it is not possible to present acomprehensive description of cost analysishere, the basic framework table belowprovides a useful approach and guide forfurther detail work.

Definition of cost. A cost is something of value that is given up or exchanged for aparticular reason. It might be as obvious asthe financial outlay for some new equipmentor as subtle as the extra time it takes asupervisor to explain new procedures to a



staff member. An effective cost analysis takesinto account who is involved in theseexchanges, what they may be giving up

(incurring costs), why they would beexpected to do so, and what theorganizational consequences may be. Aframework for identifying types of costs isuseful in this task, and is shown in the table.It is useful to describe costs in terms of atleast two concerns: the purpose of the cost,

that is, what is the result of the exchange,and the impact of the cost on theorganization’s resources.

In the table, the rowsprovide the places to identify the reasons forincurring the cost. A typical budget contains

standard categories of reasons (or objects)for costs or expenditures. These can be interms of program objectives (as in a programbudget), or in functional terms (such as legalservices, personnel, etc.), or by the specificgoods, services.

Separate direct, indirect

opportunities of costs. The impacts on theorganization can be separated into the threetypes shown in the columns of the tabledirect, indirect, and opportunity costs Directcosts of a new system or integration initiativeare usually the-easiest to identify andanalyze, since they typically are the financialcosts that are part of ordinary budget making



and planning. A carefully worked out anddetailed budget for an integration initiative isa necessary part of the planning and

business case development.However, a budget is not a

complete cost analysis, and may miss part orall of the other kinds of costs. Indirect costsare usually based on estimates or pro-ratingof shared resources, such as portion of infrastructure maintenance and depreciationor overall administration expense. Thesecosts are usually more difficult to identify andanalyze, since the estimates they require areoften based on uncertain assumptions andlimited knowledge of actual impact. But mostorganizations have developed ways of

estimating these costs, and thus they shouldbe part of the cost analysis.

The problem is a bit moredifficult when it comes to opportunity costs,the losses or costs to the organization thatresult from implementing the new systemrather than the alternative uses of those

resources. The judge who spends severalhours learning a new computer system, forexample, instead of reading a law journal hasincurred an opportunity cost. These costs arereal and can be important, but are verydifficult to measure and document.Participants in the development andimplementation of a new system are often



very sensitive to opportunity costs, sincethese affect their day- to-day work. Butthese costs are not part of any formal

accounting system and so may be ignored byplanners and budget makers, often to thedetriment of implementation. At the veryleast, a well- developed business case shouldattempt to identify the possible opportunitycosts involved in an initiative and discussways to ameliorate negative impacts.

Assess risks. The consideration of costsshould include risk assessment. Risks may beinherent in any of the internal or externalfactors that could affect the success of yourproject. These may i such potential risks as

staff and client resistance to change,immaturity of a new technology, personnellimitations, technology failures, and expectedchanges in the technical, political, ormanagement environment.

Define benefits. The performance estimatealso includes a list of the expected benefits of developing the system. Typical benefitcategories include “faster,” “better,” and “cheaper.” So the analysis should describeprecisely how which products or activities will



be better, how much faster they will be, andhow much less they will cost.

Measure performance. The analysis shouldalso include a statement of how each benefitwill be measured to see if it has beenachieved. Some measures will be relativelyeasy to describe in quantitative terms,especially those in the cheaper and faster

categories. Others that we usually think of asqualitative (e.g. “client satisfaction”) canoften be’ translated into measures throughsurveys and interviews. To identify broader,societal benefits, you must think as much aspossible in terms of outcomes and resultsrather than outputs. Outcomes are benefits

in terms of how an agency staff member,business partner, or constituent will havetheir lives changed, rather than how manyhits your World Wide Web page will receive.The benefit is the impact your effort will haveon society rather than the number of clientsserved.

Benefits:

“Bottom line” information. Cost, risk, andperformance analyses produce the necessarybottom line information on which you basethe final decision about whether to go ahead

with your project. The integration project



plans and expectations will have been fine-tuned by developing the other evaluationproducts described in this appendix.

Before a final implementation decision ismade on the project, however, the costs andbenefits need to be anticipated and fullyunderstood by the ultimate decision maker.

Project evaluation. The results of your cost-

benefit and cost performance analyses forman important part of project evaluation. Afterthe project is completed, these measures canbe used to evaluate whether i actuallyachieved its goals within its expected budget.This assessment is an important factor inplanning for future activities.

Some limitations and considerations

Complex environment. A comprehensiveanalysis of your project’s impact may bedifficult to prepare because of the complex

environment in which public sector programsreside, and the many factors that may affectthe intended outcomes of the project.

Hit “cheaper” and “faster,” but forget “better.” Project managers are often more

experienced with cost analyses, and it may



be easier to develop projects that fit into thecheaper and faster categories. While theseare definitely important, many innovative

applications also address the better category.This typically often requires more resource-intensive assessment methods.

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6 Future Trends