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PHILIPPINES ENVIRONMENT MONITOR 2005 21 3. COASTAL AND MARINE RESOURCES UNDER PRESSURE The main pressures affecting Philippine coastal and marine areas are agriculture and forestry activities, urban and industrial development, tourism development, oil and gas exploration, minerals and mining, population growth and fish consumption, and climate change. This chapter explores each of these issues, including their social, political, and economic context. Agriculture and forestry. The early onset of industrial logging in the Philippines— combined with a lack of proper forest management—has resulted in the loss of nearly 80 percent of the Philippines’ original forest cover. In 1990, 10.6 million hectares were classified as forest; by 2005, the total had declined to 7.2 million hectares, or a loss of 3.4 million hectares (FAO 2005). Over the past 15 years, the average annual forest loss was equivalent to almost 227,000 hectares per year. Forest loss combined with poor land management and unsustainable farming practices lead to soil erosion and increased flooding, resulting in higher costs of infrastructure maintenance, as well as higher risks to lives, property, and productivity. Soil erosion reduces light, smothers marine organisms, and prevents the recruitment and recovery of areas that have been silted over. Agricultural runoff is a growing source of pollution in bays and near-shore waters. The surface runoff consists of residues from livestock and poultry, fertilizer and pesticides, and decaying plant matter. Urban and industrial development. Almost all near-shore ecosystems within or near urbanized areas in the Philippines are threatened by organic pollution—that is, nutrients from industrial, commercial, and domestic wastewater carrying organic wastes and fertilizer residue. Nutrients enhance the growth of algae (including those that cause red tides) and bacteria, which in turn reduces light and oxygen, resulting in fish kills. Red tide has become a yearly occurrence in some coastal areas of the country. Sewerage infrastructure is inadequate or nonexistent. Centralized sewerage collection and treatment facilities cover only parts of Metro Manila, while Metro Cebu and Metro Davao have no centralized sewerage systems at all. Many areas have septic tanks that often do not have seepage or leaching devices and are not maintained, thus making them often inefficient and ineffective in reducing nutrient pollution. The expansion of domestic water supply systems in major coastal cities is also increasing the volume of wastewater. Each year, nearly 2.2 million tons of organic pollution are produced by domestic (48 percent), agricultural (37 percent), and industrial (15 percent) sectors (World Bank 2003). The industrial sector accounts for most, if not all, of the toxic and hazardous waste discharged into water bodies, a finding confirmed by studies carried out by the Environmental and Natural Resources Accounting Project (ENRAP). A river plume is often a sign of upland deforestation. The river plume consists of silt and clay. It decreases the water quality by increasing turbidity (cloudiness of water). Photo: Alan White.

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3. Coastal and Marine resourCes under Pressure

The. main. pressures. affecting. Philippine.coastal. and. marine. areas. are. agriculture. and.forestry. activities,. urban. and. industrial.development,. tourism.development,.oil.and.gas.exploration,. minerals. and. mining,. population.growth. and. fish. consumption,. and. climate.change.. This. chapter. explores. each. of. these.issues,. including. their. social,. political,. and.economic.context..

agriculture and forestry.. The. early. onset. of.industrial. logging. in. the. Philippines—.combined. with. a. lack. of. proper. forest.management—has. resulted. in. the. loss. of.nearly. 80. percent. of. the. Philippines’. original.forest. cover.. In. 1990,. 10.6. million. hectares.were. classified. as. forest;. by. 2005,. the. total.had. declined. to. 7.2. million. hectares,. or.a. loss. of. 3.4. million. hectares. (FAO. 2005).. Over.the. past. 15. years,. the. average. annual. forest.loss. was. equivalent. to. almost. 227,000. hectares.per. year.. Forest. loss. combined. with. poor. land.management. and. unsustainable. farming.practices. lead. to. soil. erosion. and. increased.flooding,. resulting. in. higher. costs. of.infrastructure. maintenance,. as. well. as. higher.risks. to. lives,. property,. and. productivity..Soil. erosion. reduces. light,. smothers. marine.organisms,. and. prevents. the. recruitment. and.recovery.of.areas.that.have.been.silted.over..

Agricultural. runoff. is. a. growing. source. of.pollution. in. bays. and. near-shore. waters.. The.surface.runoff.consists.of.residues.from.livestock.and. poultry,. fertilizer. and. pesticides,. and.decaying.plant.matter.

urban and industrial development.. Almost. all.near-shore.ecosystems.within.or.near.urbanized.areas. in. the. Philippines. are. threatened. by.organic. pollution—that. is,. nutrients. from.industrial,.commercial,.and.domestic.wastewater.carrying. organic. wastes. and. fertilizer. residue..nutrients.enhance.the.growth.of.algae.(including.those.that.cause.red.tides).and.bacteria,.which.in.

turn.reduces. light.and.oxygen,.resulting. in. fish.kills..Red.tide.has.become.a.yearly.occurrence.in.some.coastal.areas.of.the.country.

Sewerage. infrastructure. is. inadequate. or.nonexistent.. Centralized. sewerage. collection.and. treatment. facilities. cover. only. parts. of.Metro. Manila,. while. Metro. Cebu. and. Metro.Davao have no centralized sewerage systems.at. all.. Many. areas. have. septic. tanks. that. often.do.not.have.seepage.or.leaching.devices.and.are.not. maintained,. thus. making. them. often.inefficient. and. ineffective. in. reducing. nutrient.pollution.. The. expansion. of. domestic. water.supply. systems. in. major. coastal. cities. is. also.increasing.the.volume.of.wastewater.

Each. year,. nearly. 2.2. million. tons. of. organic.pollution.are.produced.by.domestic.(48.percent),.agricultural. (37. percent),. and. industrial. (15.percent). sectors. (World. Bank. 2003).. The.industrial. sector. accounts. for. most,. if. not. all,.of. the. toxic. and. hazardous. waste. discharged.into. water. bodies,. a. finding. confirmed. by.studies. carried. out. by. the. Environmental. and.natural.Resources.Accounting.Project.(EnRAP)..

A river plume is often a sign of upland deforestation. The river plume consists of silt and clay. It decreases the water quality by increasing turbidity (cloudiness of water). Photo: Alan White.

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The.main.substances.are.mercury.(Hg),.chromium.(Cr),. sulfides,. phenols,. phosphorus. pentoxide,.and.fluoride..

Tourism development.. Coastal. tourism. has.contributed. to. the. pollution. of. coastal. areas..Pollution. from. this. sector. is. usually. lumped.under. the. household. sector,. as. the. generated.waste.is.domestic.

Waste. from. tourism. activities. also. primarily.affects. the. business. itself.. A. concrete. example.of. this. is. Boracay. where,. for. a. time,. the.number.of. tourists.dwindled.as.a.result.of.high.coliform. counts. from. its. beaches.. Most. coastal.resorts. are. still. poorly. planned. in. terms. of.environmental. protection.. The. larger. resorts.have.only.recently.begun.to.implement.stringent.environmental. practices. on. their. properties.(Hütcche.et.al..2002)..In.many.cases,.the.building.

Source: Authors.

Figure 3.1 Typical Impacts of Tourism Activities on the Coastal Zone.

This beach, at the Tambuli Beach Resort on Mactan Island, Cebu, depicts proper setbacks for the resort and an uncluttered beach environment.Photo: Alan White.

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setback.and.waste.management. regulations.are.not. being. followed. and. deterioration. in. beach.quality.quickly.ensues..

Figure.3.1.shows.some.of.the.most.common.impacts.from.tourism.activities.on.the.coastal.zone.

The. potential. environmental. impacts. from.tourism. on. coastal. habitats. are. listed. in.Table.3.1.

Table 3.1 Environmental Impacts from Tourism on Coastal Habitats.Coastal Habitats Environmental Impacts Tourist activities that may cause impacts

Coral reefs • Physical damage to coral reefs and removal of reef organisms beyond sustainable limits

• Increase in freshwater runoff and sediments• Introduction of waterborne pollutants

• Walking or collecting souvenirs on reefs• Overfishing to supply restaurants• Land clearing for construction• Freshwater influx from wastewater pipes from

poorly treated sewage and improper disposal methods

Estuaries/ lagoons • Encroachment• Changes in sedimentation patterns• Changes to the salinity regime• Introduction of waterborne pollutants• Destruction of submerged and fringing

vegetation• Loss of fishery habitat

• Land-filling for buildings• Placement of structures on beach or in coastal

waters• Freshwater runoff• Recreational uses causing runoff,

sedimentation • Harbor maintenance• Site considerations• Land-use modifications, causing increased

runoff, sedimentation, and pollution increases from sewage, wastewater disposal

• Inlet modificationsMangroves • Changes in freshwater runoff, salinity regime

and tidal flow patterns• Excessive siltation• Introduction of pollutants • Conversion of mangrove habitat • Overharvesting of resources

• Wastewater and sewage from construction activities

• Use as a tourist development site• Same as for coral reefs and estuaries/

lagoons

Seagrass beds • Physical alteration• Excessive sedimentation or siltation• Introduction of excessive nutrients or pesticides

• Boat anchoring• Recreational activities• Increasing runoff• Sewage and, wastewater discharge

Salt marshes (tidal flats)

• Degradation of bird habitat or seed fish collection sites

• Obstruction of stormwater runoff

• Discharging wastes• Making physical alterations for tourist uses• Altering tidal flats for development purposes

Barrier beaches, sand dunes and spits

• Erosion• Dune migration

• Sand mining• Use for construction purposes• Disregarding setback regulations and

improper placement of coastal structures• Removal of natural vegetation

Sources: Authors.

oil and gas exploration.. Available. data. show.that. there. are. 83. oil. wells. in. the. offshore. areas.of. the. South. China. Sea. within. the. Philippine.territory—56. wells. in. northern. Palawan,. 20.in. South. Palawan,. and. 7. in. the. Reed. Bank..Commercial. deposits. of. oil. and. gas. have. been.found. in. northwest. Palawan.. West. Linapacan.is. estimated. to. contain. more. than. 100. million.barrels. of. recoverable. crude. oil.. The. Camago-Malampaya. offshore. gas. discovery. is. among.

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the. major. natural. gas. deposits. of. the. country,.estimated. to.contain.2.5. to.3.2. trillion.cubic. feet.of. recoverable. gas. (Balce. and. Pablico. 1997)..This. discovery. of. offshore. commercial. natural.gas. resources. provided. the. impetus. for. the.development.of.the.Philippine.gas.industry.

Other. offshore. gas. deposits. have. been.discovered.in.the.Reed.Bank.and.South.Palawan..DangerousGroundsandSpratlyIslands,whichare. claimed. in. part. by. other. nations. as. well. as.the.Philippines,.share.a.common.geology.as.the.Reed.Band.and.north.Palawan,.suggesting.that.potentially. large. petroleum. reserves. may. also.be.found.in.these.areas.

Another. major. site. for. oil. and. gas. exploration.activities.in.the.last.three.decades.is.the.Western.Sulu.basin..This. is.a.“frontier”. (underexplored).region. with. comparatively. low. drilling. density.(11.wells.within.Philippine.territorial.waters;.10.wells.offshore.Sabah.since.1970)..

The. main. environmental. impacts. of. oil. and.gas. include.operational.wastes,.such.as.drilling.fluids. and. drilling. muds;. drainage;. leaks. from.offshore.pipelines;.and.oil.spills..noise.and.other.kinds. of. disturbance. from. offshore. oil. and. gas.operations.may.also.affect.marine.mammals.

Minerals and mining.. Sand. and. gravel. mining.is. a. common. activity. in. coastal. areas.. In. many.cases,. it. leads. to. increased. coastal. erosion..Land-based. mining. can. cause. significant.environmental. impacts,. many. of. which. are.harmful.to.human.health..Mine.tailings.disposal.has. often. been. indiscriminate.. Some. tailings.have.found.their.way.into.coastal.waters..Improper.impoundment. of. wastes. and. tailings. may. lead.to. disastrous. accidents,. such. as. the. case. of.massive. toxic. spills. from. Marcopper. in.Marinduque.. It. was. estimated. that. the. amount.of. lost. income. due. to. the. accident,. and. from.coastal. fishing. alone,. was. PhP. 9.2. million. in.1996.(Box.3.1).(Bennagen.1998).

Box 3.1 Decades of Mining Destroyedan Island Paradise.

Marcopper began mining copper on Marinduque Island in the Philippines four decades ago. It dumped millions of tons of toxic mining waste into Marinduque’s coastal waters and polluted its rivers. As a result, local inhabitants have lost their health, livelihoods and some even their lives. After a major accident in 1996, the Philippine Government closed down the mine.

Recent field investigations and a scientific survey funded by Oxfam Australia’s Mining Ombudsman revealed that—almost a decade after the mine has been closed—a main river is still polluted from the continuous runoff from the mine and old tailings left behind. The high acid and metal levels in the river are a hazard to humans and aquatic life. Local health is strongly affected by skin diseases, which local people blame on toxic mine waste. Fishermen have lost limbs, which they believe is the result of arsenic contamination. Stomach complaints, dementia, and cancer are also common. Local inhabitants have received little or no rehabilitation of their environment, nor any payment of compensation.

Michael (only legs shown) and Jay. Michael has skin problems, which local people blame on the mine waste pumped into Calancan Bay.Photo: David Sproule/Oxfam Australia.

Source: Adapted from full case study, which is available at: http://www.oxfam.org.au.

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While. the. exploitation. of. land-based. metallic.and. nonmetallic. mineral. deposits. is. a. major.contributor. to. the. country’s. economy,. the.potential.of.mining.marine.mineral.resources. in.Philippine. offshore. areas. has. received. little.attention.. As. technological. advances. in. ocean.mining. develop,. ocean. floor. minerals. will.probably.be.explored.as.possible.alternative.sites.for. future. mineral. exploitation.. Polymetallic.sulfides. and. manganese. deposits. are. among.the. potential. mineral. resources. from. the. ocean.floor.. Based. on. knowledge. of. tectonic.environments. favorable. to. the. formation,.accumulation,. and. preservation. of. polymetallic.sulfides,. the. marginal. basins. around. the.Philippines. are. promising. exploration. grounds.(Yumul 1993). Sulfide deposits contain copper,lead,. zinc,. silver,. gold,. and. possibly. other.alloys.. The. Scarborough. Seamount. Chain.Plateau.offshore.of.northeastern.Luzon,.and.the.Cagayan. de. Sulu. Ridge. in. the. Sulu. Basin,. are.likely. sites. for. these. sulfide. deposits.. For.manganese. nodules,. only. the. West. Philippine.Basin.appears.to.be.a.good.target.site..

The. potential. environmental. impacts. of.marine. mining. include. pollution. from. waste.and. mine. tailings,. increased. water. turbidity.(cloudiness.in.water),.and.debris.and.sediments.that. may. have. an. effect. on. local. marine. life..Removal. of. sand. from. the. sea. floor. can. cause.severe.erosion.and. loss.of.marine.habitat;. such.alterations. may. also. cause. a. change. in. wave.regime. that. could. affect. coastal. erosion.. noise.and.other.kinds.of.disturbances.from.operations.may.also.affect.marine.mammals.

Population growth and fish consumption.. Fishery.exports. were. about. 173,887. MT. in. 1997. and.196,087.MT.in.2004,.valued.at.PhP.16.billion.($327.million). and. PhP. 27. billion. ($543. million).respectively..Over.a.period.of.seven.years,.volume.grew.by.an.average.of.3.percent,.while.the.value.of. fish.exports.grew.on.average.9.percent..Over.

the.same.period,.the.volume.of.imports.decreased.by.an.average.of.5.percent.(Figures.3.2.and.3.3).

During the past two decades, the annual.population. increase. in. the.Philippines.has.been.about. 2.2. percent. per. year.. Fish. consumption.in. the. Philippines. is. about. 28.5. kilograms.per. capita. per. year. (Barut. et. al.. 2004).. The.increased.demand.for.fish.by.a.rapidly.growing.population,. and. increasing. exports. due. to.increasing. fish. prices,. have. substantially.increased. the. pressure. on. marine. fishery.

Sources: BAS: Fisheries Statistics of the Philippines. 1997-2001; 2001-2004.

Figure 3.2 Volume of Exports and Imports of Fish and Fishery Products, 1997–2004 (MT).

Sources: BAS: Fisheries Statistics of the Philippines. 1997-2001; 2001-2004.

Figure 3.3 Value of Exports and Imports of Fish and Fishery Products, 1997–2004 (1´000 PhP).

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resources. over. the. past. two. decades.. Table. 3.2.illustrates. a. projection,. which. assumes. that.average. fish. consumption. continues. to. be. 28.5.kilograms.per.capita.per.year.

Without. any. change. in. fish. consumption. and.no. active. human. population. management.program,. domestic. demand. for. fish. will. reach.3.2. billion. kilograms. (3.2. million. MT). by. 2020,.given. the. projected. population. growth. rate. of.the.country..

If. increased. demand. is. met. solely. by. marine.capture. fisheries,. such. increased. pressure. on.the. fisheries. sector. could. lead. to. an. eventual.collapse.of.fisheries.and.the.fishing.industry.

As. mentioned. in. Chapter. 2,. declining. CPUE.is. an. indication. of. overexploitation.. When. we.compare. the. Philippines. and. five. other.countries. in. the. region. (Figure. 3.4. on. previous.page),. the. result. seems. to. confirm. this. trend,.even. though. comparing. fisheries. indicators.among. countries. is. problematic. because. of.

the. inherent. differences. in. resource. and.technology.characteristics.

Table 3.2 Projected Population and Fish Consumption Levels, 1995–2020.

YEAR Population level (millions)

Fish consumption (million metric tons)

1995 68,4 1,92000 76,5 2,22005 85,2 2,42010 93,9 2,72015 102,8 2,92020 111,6 3,2

Source: Authors.

As.illustrated.in.Figure.3.4,.the.average.increase.in. total. catch. between. 1989. and. 2003. was. 2.9.percent. per. year,. with. the. fasted. increases. in.vietnam.(5.8.percent).and.Indonesia.(4.6.percent).and. the.slowest. in. the.Philippines. (1.6.percent).and.Thailand.(1.percent).

The. relatively. small. increase. in. Philippine.landings. indicates. that. the. fisheries. resource. is.

Source: FAO Fishstats.

Figure 3.4 Total Catch, 1989–2003 (MT).

0

500,000

1,000,0001,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,0004,000,000

4,500,000

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Cat

ch (t

ons)

India Indones ia Malays iaPhilippines Thailand V ietnam

4.5004.0003.5003.0002.5002.0001.5001,0000.500

0

Cat

ch (

x106

tons

)

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

India

Philippines

Indonesia

Thailand

Malaysia

Vietnam

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more. heavily. exploited. than. elsewhere.. An.analysis.of.mullet,.grouper,.and.bream.landings.(the.part.of.the.fish.catch.that.is.brought.ashore).is. particularly. worrying.. Figure. 3.5. illustrates.the. change. in. landings. of. these. fish,. which.represent. important. target. species.over. the. last.three.decades.

Because. marine. capture. fisheries. are. over-exploited,. the. growing. demand. for. fish.will. eventually. have. to. be. met. by. an. increase.in. aquaculture. production.. Costs. to. the.environment,. however,. will. have. to. be. taken.into.account..Environmentally.friendly.aquaculture.is.possible.with.adequate.planning,. investment,.and. consideration. of. potential. impacts. and.mitigation.on.vulnerable.coastal.mangrove.and.reef.ecosystems..

Climate change.. The. Intergovernmental. Panel.on. Climate. Change. (IPCC). has. concluded. that.(a).atmospheric.greenhouse.gases.have.increased;.(b). the.average.surface.temperature.of. the.earth.has. increased. since. 1861. by. about. 0.6. degrees.Celsius;. (c). global. average. sea. level. have. risen.between.0.1.and.0.2.meters;.and.(d). rainfall.has.increased. by. 0.2. to. 0.3. percent. per. decade. over.the.tropical.land.areas..

Potential. impacts. of. climate. change. on. coastal.areas.are.summarized.in.Box.3.2.

The. potential. influence. of. climate. change. and.sea-level. rise. on. Philippine. coastal. areas. and.resources. is. only. now. beginning. to. be. studied..nevertheless,. based. on. measurements. over. the.last. 100. years. and. various. projected. global.scenarios,. fairly. good. inferences. can. be. made.about. the. possible. impact. of. such. changes. on.Philippine.coasts.over.the.next.50.to.100.years.

Temperatures.seem.to.be.rising.slightly.all.over.the. Philippines. and. in. the. surrounding. coastal.waters..The.1990s.were.the.warmest.decade.in.the.last.century,.and.1998.was.the.warmest.year.on.record. in. the. Philippines.. That. year. coincided.with.the.most.extensive.coral.bleaching.episode.ever.observed.on.Philippine.coral.reefs;.about.15.to.20.percent.of.the.country’s. living.corals.were.killed..Average.air.temperature.in.the.Philippines.has.risen.by.about.0.5.degrees.Celsius.since.1980..This. warming. has. been. accompanied. by. a. 6.percent.average.decline.in.annual.rainfall.over.the.last.century..This.drying.occurs.primarily.during.theDecembertoFebruaryseason(WWF1999).

Sea. level. is. monitored. at. Manila. and. Legaspi..Time.series.show.a.small.rise.in.relative.sea.level.

Note: Figure shows average landings between 1970–1975 and 1998–2003; Benchmark is composite, Mullet (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand), Grouper (Indonesia, Malaysia), Bream (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand).

Source: FAO Fishstats.

Figure 3.5 Change in Landings, Philippines vs. Benchmark, 1970-2003.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Mullet Grouper B ream

Chan

ge in

land

ing

quan

tity

(%) P hilippines

B enchmark

The density of fish traps in parts of Manila Bay is a lot higher than the fish remaining.Photo: Alan White.

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before. the. 1960s,. and. a. more. rapid. increase. of.between.20.(Legaspi).and.40.centimeters.(Manila).up.to.the.present.day..Other.measures.of.relative.sea.level,.using.localized.tide.gauges.in.Cebu.and.Jolo,.indicate.a.relative.fall.in.sea.level.at.rates.of.a.few.millimeters.per.year,.but.the.tide.gauge.in.Manila.Bay.again.registers.a.rise. in.relative.sea.level.of.2.centimeters.per.year.between.1963.and.1980..In.the.adjacent.delta.region,.an.average.of.3.centimeters.per.year.was.documented.on.the.basis.of. the.emergence.of.groundwater. in.well.pipes.and.tidal.flooding..Most.of.this.relative.change.in.sea. level. is. due. to. excessive. land. reclamation,.groundwater.withdrawal,.and.possible.subsidence.

Box 3.2 Potential Impacts of Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise on Coastal Systems.

Climate change and a rise in sea-level can have a number of biophysical and related socio-economic impacts on the Philippines. Potential biophysical impacts: • Increased coastal erosion. • Inhibition of primary production processes. • More extensive coastal inundation. • Higher storm-surge flooding. • Landward intrusion of seawater in estuaries

and aquifers. • Changes in surface water quality and

groundwater characteristics. • Changes in the distribution of pathogenic

microorganisms.• Higher sea-surface temperature.

Potential socio-economic impacts:• Increased loss of property and coastal habitats.• Increased flood risk and potential loss of life.• Damage to coastal protection works and other

infrastructure.• Increased disease risk.• Loss of renewable and subsistence resources.• Loss of tourism, recreation, and transportation

functions.• Impacts on agriculture and aquaculture through

decline in soil and water quality.

Source: IPCC Third Assessment Report, 2001.

at.the.monitoring.sites.monitoring,.but.nonetheless.a. small. residual. rise. in. sea. level. along. the.Philippine.coast.remains.that.may.be.due.to.global.change.and.ocean.warming.1.

1. The.IPCC.Third.Assessment.Report.states:.“sea-level.rise.is. regarded.as.one.of. the.more.certain.outcomes.of.global.warming.and.already.is.taking.place..Over.the.past.100.years,.global.sea. level.has.risen.by.an.average.of.1-2.millimeters.per.year,.and.scientists.anticipate.that.this.rate.will.accelerate.during.the.next.few.decades.and.into.the.22nd.century.”

A. relative. rise. in. sea-level,. regardless. of. its.cause,.has.a. real. effect.on. the. coastal. area.as. it.causes. inundation. of. low-lying. areas.. Several.studies. have. shown. the. vulnerability. of. the.Philippine.coasts.to.a.relative.change.in.sea.level.and. erosion. forces. on. beaches.. Most. studies.have. focused. on. the. Manila. Bay. area. because.Manila. lies. in.a. low-lying. flood.plain.and. tidal.swamp. area. that. is. extremely. vulnerable. to.rises. in. sea. level.. Based. on. different. sea. level.projections,. the. amount. of. land. that. would. be.inundated. with. water. along. the. Manila. Bay.shoreline.(See.Table.3.3.).

Manila.is.clearly.vulnerable.to.a.rise.in.sea-level..This.is.made.worse.by.the.subsidence.of.portions.of. the.coastline..The.most.probable.scenario.by.

Manila lies in a low-lying flood plain and tidal swamp area that is extremely vulnerable to rises in sea level.Photo: Ipat Luna.

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2100. of. a. 1-meter. rise. in. sea. level. would. affect.approximately. 2.3. million. people. living. in. the.coastal. area. in. Manila. (based. on. population.projections.for.2025).

Table 3.3 Endangered Area of Land along the Manila Bay Coast in Different Projected Sea-Level

Rise Scenarios for 2100.Sea level rise scenario

(meter)Area to be inundated

(hectares)0.3 20901.0 55552.0 8905

Source: Perez et al. 1999.

The. vulnerability. of. other. coastal. areas. of. the.Philippines.will.depend.on.the.actual.rise.in.sea.level.as.a.result.of.global.changes.in.temperature,.glacial. ice.melting,.and.other. factors,. including.shoreline.topography.and.elevation..Most.major.Philippinecities—suchasDapitan, inLingayenGulf,partsofDavaoCity,andreclaimedportionsof. Cebu. City. among. others—are. situated. on.relatively.low-lying.areas.

Projected.possible. increases. in. storm.frequency.and. strength. due. to. global. warming. will. also.affect. coastal.areas.with. flooding. from.extreme.high. tides,. mud. slides,. and. increased. erosion.rates..Although.data.on.changes.in.storm.patterns.is.still.preliminary,.even.assuming.the.status.quo.it.is.clear.that.higher.tides.combined.with.regular.typhoon-strength. storms. will. yearly. cause.significant. damage. along. the. coasts. that. are.exposed.to.such.storms..Such.damage.can.only.be.mitigated. with. preventive. planning. along.shoreline.areas.and.the.implementation.of.building.and.development.setbacks.along.beaches.and.all.low-lying.shorelines.

Climate.change.would.also.strongly.affect.coral.reefs.through.a.changing.marine.biochemistry..As.the.ocean.warms,.its.capacity.to.dissolve.carbon.dioxide.could.decrease.by.14.to.30.percent,.leading.to. a. decrease. in. biological. carbonate. formation.that.is.essential.for.reef.building.(Hardy.2003).

In. summary,. climate. change. and. sea-level. rise.could.have.major. impacts.on.Philippine.marine.and.coastal.resources..

To. prevent. or. mitigate. these. various. changes.and. impacts,. climate. change. responses. and.measures—such. as. the. implementation. of.setback. regulations,. appropriate. land. planning.in. coastal. areas,. and. the. strengthening. of. coral.reef. management. to. enhance. the. natural.resilience. of. coral. reef. communities—need. to.be. part. of. ICRM. schemes. and. strategies.. In.addition,. more. studies. on. mitigation. and.adaptation. to. climate. change. in. coastal. areas.are.needed.

Aeta mother and her children in Northern Luzon. The Aetas live at the coast part of the year, where they fish and collect shellfish. Climate change will likely have a strong impact on these poor communities, worsening their already tenuous situation.Photo: Finn Danielsen.

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