2022 TEXAS GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION CONTEST

THE 2022 TEXAS GUBERNATORIAL

ELECTION CONTEST

A STUDY OF TEXAS VOTERS AND TEXAS HISPANIC VOTERS

NOVEMBER 1, 2021

BOARD OF DIRECTORS

Hon. Jason

Villalba Chairman of the

Board

Hon. Hope Andrade

Board Member

Hon. Carlos

Cascos Board Member

Hon. Leticia Van De Putte

Board Member

Regina

Montoya Board Member

Robert A. Estrada

Board Member

Hon. Sarah

Saldaña Board Member

Trey

Newton Board Member

OFFICERS

Hon. Jason

Villalba Chief Executive

Officer

Regina

Montoya President

Trey

Newton Chief Operating

Officer

Dr. Mark

Jones, Ph.D. Chief Information and

Analytics Officer

ABOUT THE TEXAS HISPANIC POLICY FOUNDATION

The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation operates as a nonpartisan, nonprofit 501(c)(3) organization, dedicated and committed to analyzing and exploring the political, economic, social, demographic, and familial attitudes, and behaviors of Texas Hispanics. In collaboration with Rice University and the Baker Institute for Public Policy, the Foundation conducts surveys, polls, research, data collection and analysis concerning the Hispanic population in Texas. You can find more information about the Foundation at www.TxHPF.org.

https://www.txhpf.org/

EXECUTIVESUMMARYThisisthefirstoffourreportsdrawingonasurveyof1,402Texasregisteredvotersconducted between October 14 and 27, 2021. It provides an analysis of voteintentionfortheNovember2022Texasgubernatorialelectionalongwiththevoteintention for theMarch2022Republicanprimaryelections forgovernor, attorneygeneral and agriculture commissioner as well as for theMarch 2022 Democraticprimaryelectionsforlieutenantgovernorandattorneygeneral.Among all registered voters, Republican Greg Abbott is the choice of 43% andDemocrat BetoO’Rourke of 42%,with 12%unsure ofwhom theywould vote forand3%choosingminorpartycandidates.Theresultsremainnearlyidenticalifthepopulationisrestrictedto2020presidentialelectionvoters,withAbbottpreferredby44%andO’Rourkeby43%,with10%unsure and3%supportingminorpartycandidates.AlmosttwiceasmanywhiteTexansintendtovoteforAbbott(58%)thanO’Rourke(30%).Conversely,morethanseventimesasmanyBlackTexansintendtovoteforO’Rourke (76%) than Abbott (10%). Hispanic support is more narrowly divided,with49%favoringO’Rourkeand31%favoringAbbott.HispanicswhoareevangelicalProtestantsaremorelikelytovoteforAbbott(42%)than O'Rourke (37%). Catholic Hispanics and non-religious HispanicsoverwhelminglyfavorO'RourkeoverAbbott(56%to29%and46%to28%)Under the scenario of an independent gubernatorial candidacy by MatthewMcConaughey, among all registered voters, Abbott garners the support of 40%,O’Rourke of 37% andMcConaughey of 9%,with 12%unsure and 2% supportingminorpartycandidates.Amongthosewhocastaballotinthe2020presidentialrace,Abbott is the choice of 41%,O’Rourkeof 39%andMcConaugheyof 9%,with9%unsureand2%supportingminorcandidates.Abbott and O’Rourke have fairly balanced proportions of Texans who have afavorable (49%and44%)andunfavorable (47%and47%)opinionof them,withonly4%and9%notknowingenoughabout themtohaveanopinion. Incontrast,McConaughey’s combined favorable rating of 51% is almost double his combinedunfavorableratingof26%,and,contrarytoAbbottandO’Rourke,one-fourth(23%)ofTexansdon’tknowenoughaboutMcConaugheytohaveanopinionabouthim.In the Republican gubernatorial primary, Greg Abbott’s vote intention among themostlikelyprimaryvotersis64%,withAllenWestat13%,DonHuffinesat5%andChadPratherat3%,with15%unsure.IntheRepublicanattorneygeneralprimary,KenPaxton’svoteintentionamongthemostlikelyprimaryvotersis54%,withGeorgeP.Bushat18%,EvaGuzmanat5%andMattKrauseat1%,with22%unsure.

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THE2022TEXASGUBERNATORIALELECTIONCONTEST:ASTUDYOFTEXASVOTERSANDTEXASHISPANICVOTERS

Thisisthefirstreportoffourdrawingonasurveyof1,402TexasregisteredvotersthattookplacebetweenOctober14andOctober27of2021(confidenceintervalof+/-2.6%).Thesurveyincludedanoversampleof402Hispanicregisteredvoterstoallowforamorefine-grainedanalysisofthisimportantdemographic.Theresponsesare weighted to provide a population that is representative of Texas registeredvoters(formoreinformationonthemethodology,seetheappendix).In this reportwecarryoutadetailedanalysisofvote intention for theNovember2022Texasgubernatorialelection,examiningconventionalscenariosregardingthemost likely Republican and Democratic candidates, but also unconventionalscenarios involving an independent gubernatorial election bid by MatthewMcConaughey.ThereportalsoincludesprojectedvoteintentionfortheMarch2022Republican primary elections for governor, attorney general and agriculturecommissioner as well as for the March 2022 Democratic primary elections forlieutenantgovernorandattorneygeneral.1.SURVEYPOPULATIONThedistributionofthosesurveyedbasedontheirethnic/racialself-identificationis52% white/Anglo, 33% Hispanic/Latino, 12% Black/African American and 3%other. Among the Hispanics surveyed, 87% approve of the use of the term“Hispanic”,81%approveoftheuseoftheterm“Latino”and34%approveoftheuseoftheterm“Latinx”.Thegenderdistributionofthepopulationis53%womenand47%men.Inregardtogenerations,38%ofthepopulationbelongstothecombinedSilentGeneration(bornbetween1928and1945)andBabyBoomers(1946-1964)cohort, 26% to Generation X (1965-1980), 28% to the Millennial (1981-1996)generationand8%toGenerationZ(1997-2003).Thedistributionofthepopulationbasedoneducationalattainmentis:highschooldegreeorless(30%),somecollegeoratwo-yeardegree(31%),andafour-yearorpostgraduatedegree(39%).Finally,36% of the population identifies as Democrat, 33% as Republican and 24% asIndependent,with2%unsureand5%whoidentifywithanotherpoliticalpartyorpoliticalgroup.2.THEGUBERNATORIALELECTIONThissectiondiscussessixdistinctaspectsofthe2020gubernatorialelection.

• First, the overall gubernatorial vote intention is examined under differentscenariosexcludingandincludingMatthewMcConaugheyasagubernatorial

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candidate (in addition to Republican Greg Abbott and Democrat BetoO’Rourke).

• Second,supportforAbbottandO’Rourkeamongdifferentdemographicsub-

groupsisdetailed.

• Third,thestudytakesadvantageofitslargeHispanicoversampletoengageinafine-grainedanalysisofthedifferentialsupportforAbbottandO’Rourkeamong a wide range of Hispanic sub-groups, underscoring the extent towhichthisdemographicishardlymonolithicinitselectoralpreferencesandbehavior.

• Fourth, the distribution of the registered voter population that would

consider voting for and neverwould consider voting for Abbott, O’RourkeandMcConaugheyisprovided.

• Fifth, each one of this trio’s overall levels of favorability among Texas

registeredvotersispresented.

• Sixth, Texans provide their opinions about what they believe MatthewMcConaughey’spartisanorientationtobe.

2.1.VoteIntentionforthe2022GubernatorialElectionIn the survey the respondentswere asked two distinct questions about the 2022gubernatorial election. The first presented the respondents with four potentialcandidatesandtheirpartisanaffiliationandasked, if theelectionwereheldtoday,whichonewouldtheyvotefor.ThefourcandidateswereGregAbbott(Republican),BetoO’Rourke(Democrat),DelilahBarrios(GreenParty),andoneoftwopotentialLibertarian candidates who were each randomly assigned to one-half of therespondents, Dan Behrman (Libertarian) and Andrew Jewell (Libertarian).Respondentsalsohadtheoptionofansweringdon’tknow/unsure.Table1provides the survey results for twopopulations: all registeredvoters andonlythoserespondentswhocastaballotinthe2020presidentialelection.AmongallregisteredvotersAbbottwasthechoiceof43%,O’Rourkeof42%,theLibertariancombination of Behrman and Jewell of 2%, and the Green Party’s Barrios of 1%,with12%unsureofwhomtheywouldvotefor.Theresultsremainnearlyidenticalifthepopulationisrestrictedtothoseindividualswhoreportedhavingcastaballotin the 2020 presidential election, with Abbott the preferred candidate of 44%,O’Rourkeof43%,Behrman/Jewellof2%andBarriosof1%,with10%unsure.

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Table1.The2022GubernatorialVote:Four-CandidateScenarioCandidate(Party) AllRegisteredVoters% 2020ElectionVoters% GregAbbott(R) 43 44BetoO’Rourke(D) 42 43D.Behrman/A.Jewell(L) 2 2DelilahBarrios(G) 1 1Unsure/Don’tKnow 12 10Table 2 explores a less likely five-candidate scenario where in addition to thecandidates examined in Table 1, MatthewMcConaughey runs as an Independent.Underthisscenarioamongallregisteredvoters,Abbottgarnersthesupportof40%,O’Rourkeof37%,McConaugheyof9%,Behrman/Jewellof1%andBarriosof1%,with 12% unsure. Among thosewho cast a ballot in the 2020 presidential race,Abbottisthechoiceof41%,O’Rourkeof39%,McConaugheyof9%,Behrman/Jewellof1%andBarriosof1%,with9%unsure.Table2.The2022GubernatorialVote:Five-CandidateScenarioCandidate(Party) AllRegisteredVoters% 2020ElectionVoters% GregAbbott(R) 40 41BetoO’Rourke(D) 37 39MatthewMcConaughey(I) 9 9D.Behrman/A.Jewell(L) 1 1DelilahBarrios(G) 1 1Unsure/Don’tKnow 12 92.2.Demographics&VoteIntentionforthe2022GubernatorialElectionTable3containsthedistributionofsupportforAbbottandO’Rourke(aswellasforthose voters who are unsure how they would vote) for the more likely 2022scenariocontained inTable1 inwhichMatthewMcConaugheydoesnot launchanindependent gubernatorial bid, with the focus being on the preferences of allregistered voters. Support is examined across the following dimensions:ethnic/racial (white, Hispanic, Black), gender (female, male), generation (BabyBoomer/Silent, Generation X, Millennial, Generation Z), highest educationalattainment (high school or less, some college/2-year degree, 4-yeardegree/postgraduatedegree)andpartisanID(Democrat,Independent,Republican).

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Table 3: Ethnicity/Race, Gender, Generation, Education, Partisan ID & the2022GubernatorialVoteDemographic Sub-Groups Abbott% O’Rourke% Unsure% Ethnicity/Race White 58 30 9 Hispanic 31 49 16 Black 10 76 12 Gender Women 39 47 12 Men 48 36 12 Generation Boomer/Silent 57 35 6 GenerationX 42 41 14 Millennial 31 51 13 GenerationZ 20 45 27 Education HighSchool 42 36 18 2-Yr/Some 42 44 10 4-Yr/PostGrad 44 44 8 PartisanID Democrat 5 88 6 Independent 42 29 22 Republican 86 4 8AlmosttwiceasmanywhiteTexansintendtovoteforAbbott(58%)thanintendtovoteforO’Rourke(30%).Conversely,morethanseventimesasmanyBlackTexansintendtovoteforO’Rourke(76%)thanintendtovoteforAbbott(10%). Hispanicsupportismoreevenlydivided,with49%ofHispanicsfavoringO’Rourkeand31%favoringAbbott.WomenaresignificantlymorelikelytoplantovoteforO’Rourke(47%)thanAbbott(39%), while men are significantly more likely to vote for Abbott (48%) thanO’Rourke(36%).Abbott’svoteintentionisnotablyhigherwithintheBabyBoomer/SilentGenerationcohortthanisO’Rourke’s(57%to35%)whileO’Rourke’svoteintentionisnotablyhigherthanAbbott’samongbothMillennials(51%to31%)andGenerationZ(45%vs. 20%). The two candidates are evenly matched within Generation X whereAbbottenjoysanarrow42%to41%advantageoverO’Rourke.

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The support for each candidate is relatively equal among the three educationalattainment groups, with one modest exception. That exception is that Abbott’s(42%)voteintentionisnotablyhigherthanO’Rourke’s(36%)amongthoseTexanswhosehighestlevelofeducationalattainmentisahighschooldegreeorless.Finally,unsurprisinglygiveneachcandidate’spartisanship,Abbott is farandawaythepreferredcandidateamongRepublicans(86%to4%)whileO’Rourkeisfarandaway the preferred candidate among Democrats (88% to 5%). Abbott enjoys asubstantial lead among Independents (42% to29%), a groupwith amuchhigherproportionofundecidedvoters(22%)thanisfoundamongeitherRepublicans(8%)orDemocrats(6%).2.3. Demographics & Hispanic Vote Intention for the 2022 GubernatorialElectionTable 4 examines the same five demographic groups as Table 3, except focusedexclusively on the Hispanic registered voters (recall that the survey has a largeoversample of Texas Hispanics, thereby allowing for more detailed sub-groupanalysisthanisnormallypossibleinastandardrepresentativesurvey).Table4:Gender,Generation,Education,PartisanID&the2022GubernatorialVoteAmongHispanicsDemographic Sub-Groups Abbott% O’Rourke% Unsure% Gender Female 28 56 13 Male 35 40 20 GenerationI Boomer/Silent 45 47 8 GenerationX 33 46 18 Millennial 23 57 16 GenerationZ 21 36 31 Education HighSchool 34 42 22 2-Yr/Some 28 51 15 4-Yr/PostGrad 29 57 9 PartisanID Democrat 3 87 7 Independent 29 29 34 Republican 82 1 11

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By and large the trends observed in Table 3 are also seen in Table 4 in terms ofsupportbeinggreateror lesser forAbbottandO’Rourkerespectively, simplywiththeadjustmentthatthebaselinesupportforAbbottisloweramongHispanicsthanwithinthegeneralpopulationwhileforO’Rourkeitishigher.Table5extendstheaboveanalysisbyexaminingHispanicvoteintentiondifferencesamong four distinct Hispanic demographic sub-groups. The first is religion:evangelicalProtestant,Catholicandnon-religious.Thesecondislanguageuseinthehome: Spanish dominant, equal use of English and Spanish, more English thanSpanish, and English only. The third is the immigration generation of therespondent: immigrant, first generation, second generation and third generationandbeyond.ThefourthisancestrybasedonthenumberofHispanicgrandparentspossessed by the respondent: three to four Hispanic grandparents or one to twoHispanicgrandparents.Table5:HispanicSub-Groupsandthe2022GubernatorialVote:ImmigrationGeneration,BirthGeneration,LanguageUse,Ancestry,Religion,andEducationDemographic Sub-Groups Abbott% O’Rourke% Unsure% Religion Evangelical-P 42 37 16 Catholic 29 56 13 Non-Religious 28 46 21 Language SpanishDom. 23 56 21 EqualEn.&Sp. 24 57 15 MoreEnglish 40 44 16 EnglishOnly 31 44 24 GenerationII Immigrant 34 49 17 1stGen. 23 52 19 2ndGen. 30 50 17 3rdGen.+ 36 45 16 Ancestry 3-4Hispanic

Grandparents29 52 14

1-2HispanicGrandparents

36 38 22

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OneinfiveoftheHispanicssurveyedisanevangelicalProtestant(20%),nearlyone-half are Catholic (47%), 27% profess no religious identity and 6% identify withsomeotherreligion. HispanicswhoareevangelicalProtestantsaremore likely tointendtovoteforAbbott(42%)thanO’Rourke(37%)whileCatholicHispanicsandnon-religious Hispanics overwhelmingly favor O’Rourke (56% and 46%respectively)overAbbott(29%and28%respectively).One in tenHispanics surveyed (10%) live in a Spanishdominanthousehold, 29%live inahouseholdwherebothEnglishandSpanishare spokenrelativelyequally,34%liveinahouseholdwheremoreEnglishisspokenthanSpanish,and27%livein a householdwhere only English is spoken. O’Rourke possesses amuch largeradvantageoverAbbottamongthosewholiveinhouseholdswhereSpanishiseitherthe dominant language (56% vs. 23%) or where English and Spanish are usedrelativelyequally(57%vs.24%).Conversely,O’Rourke’sadvantageoverAbbottisnotablysmalleramongindividualswithinhouseholdswhereeitherEnglishisusedmorethanSpanish(44%vs.40%)orwhereonlyEnglishisused(44%vs.31%).Slightlymorethanoneinten(12%)oftheHispanicregisteredvoterssurveyedareimmigrants, 17%are first generationAmericans, 24%are secondgeneration, and47% are third generation or beyond. O’Rourke’s advantage over Abbott iscurvilinear, lowest among immigrants (49% vs. 34%) and among those who arethird generation or beyond (45% vs. 36%), and highest among first generation(52%vs.23%)andsecondgeneration(50%vs.30%)Hispanics.Morethantwo-fifthsofHispanicssurveyedhavefourHispanicgrandparents(61%)while another 5% have three Hispanic grandparents, for a total of 66%. Theremaining 34% of respondents have two or fewer Hispanic grandparents. WhileO’RourkeenjoysasubstantiallyhighervoteintentionthanAbbottamongHispanicswithfourorthreeHispanicgrandparents(52%vs.29%),hisadvantageoverAbbottisonly2%(38%vs.36%)among thoseHispanicswith fewer than threeHispanicgrandparents.2.4.CandidatesforWhomTexansWouldConsider&NeverConsiderVotingTherespondentswerequeriedaboutwhethertheywouldconsidervotingfor,neverwouldconsidervotingfor,ordidn’tknowenoughaboutthreehighprofilepotential2022gubernatorialcandidatestohaveanopinioneitherway.Table6providestheproportion of registered voters who would consider voting for, never wouldconsidervotingfor,ordon’tknowenoughaboutthecandidatetosayeitherway.Both Abbott and O’Rourke are well-known quantities to Texas registered voters,withonly6%notknowingenoughaboutAbbotttohaveanopinionandonly8%notknowingenoughaboutO’Rourke. Theproportionof registeredvoterswhowouldconsidervoting forAbbott (49%) isonly slightlygreater than theproportion thatneverwould consider voting for him (45%). The proportion of registered voters

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whowouldconsidervoting forO’Rourke (46%) is identical to theproportion thatneverwouldconsidervotingforhim(46%).IncontrasttothecasesofAbbottandO’Rourke,morethanone-third(36%)oftheseregisteredvotersdidnotknowenoughaboutMcConaugheytobeabletosayiftheyeitherwouldorneverwouldconsidervotingforhiminthe2022gubernatorialrace.Of the 64% with an opinion, 35% indicated they would consider voting forMcConaugheywhile29%indicatedtheyneverwouldconsidervotingforhim.Table 6: Registered Voters Who Would Consider & Never Would ConsiderVotingForThreePotential2022GubernatorialCandidatesWouldVoteFor? Abbott% O’Rourke% McConaughey%WouldConsiderVotingFor

49 46 35

NeverWouldConsiderVotingFor

45 46 29

Don’tKnowEnoughAbout

6 8 36

Table 7 provides the same information as Table 6 for the three potential minorparty gubernatorial candidates: theLibertarianParty’sDanBehrmanandAndrewJewell and the Green Party’s Delilah Barrios. In all three cases the proportion ofregisteredvoterswhodidnotknowenoughaboutthecandidatetohaveanopinioneitherway iseitherslightlyaboveorbelow50%while theproportionwhowouldconsider voting for the candidate at the present time is in a narrow range of 9%(BarriosandBehrman)to11%(Jewell),proportionsthatarestatisticallyequivalent.Table 7: Registered Voters Who Would Consider & Never Would ConsiderVotingForThreePotentialMinorParty2022GubernatorialCandidatesWouldVoteFor? Behrman% Jewell% Barrios%WouldConsiderVotingFor

9 11 9


39 38 42


52 51 49

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2.5.GubernatorialCandidateFavorabilityRatingsTable 8 contains the favorability ratings for the three potential gubernatorialcandidates(Abbott,O’Rourke,McConaughey),atopicthatwillbeexaminedinmuchgreaterdetail foramuch largernumberofpoliticians in the secondreportof thisseries.BothAbbottandO’RourkehavefairlyevenlybalancedproportionsofTexanswho have a combined favorable (49% and 44% respectively) and combinedunfavorable(47%and47%respectively)opinionofthem,withonly4%and9%ofTexans not knowing enough about them to have an opinion. In contrast,McConaughey’s combined favorable rating of 51% is almost double his combinedunfavorable ratingof 26%, and, contrary to the case for thebetter knownAbbottand O’Rourke, almost one in four Texans (23%) doesn’t know enough aboutMcConaugheytohaveanopinion.Table8:FavorabilityRatingoftheThreeGubernatorialCandidatesFavorability Abbott% O’Rourke% McConaughey%VeryFavorable

30 28 19

SomewhatFavorable

19 16 32

SomewhatUnfavorable

9 6 14

VeryUnfavorable

38 41 12

Don’tKnow

4 9 23

2.6.WhatisMatthewMcConaughey’sPartisanOrientation?Texas registered voters were asked about what they consider the partisanorientationofMatthewMcConaugheytobe. Overall,asTable9makesclear,thereexistsawiderangeofopinionregardingMcConaughey’spartisanorientationintheeyesofTexas.Whileoneinfour(23%)registeredvotersdidnotofferanopiniononMcConaughey’spartisanship,themedianrespondentwhodidofferanopinionviewsMcConaughey’s partisanship as “Independent, Lean Democratic”. That said, 28%consider him to be a Republican of conservative (9%), moderate (6%) orindependent (13%)stripe, just as8%considerhim tobea true independent, and41%aDemocratofaliberal(11%),moderate(11%)orindependent(19%)stripe.Democrats and Republicans however tend to view McConaughey’s partisanshipdifferently,witheachpartisansub-grouptendingtoprojecttheirownpartisanshipontohimmorethanthatoftheotherparty. Forexample,58%ofDemocratsviewMcConaugheyassomeflavorofDemocratwhileonly12%viewhimassomeflavorof Republican. And, 49% of Republicans view McConaughey as some flavor of

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Republicanwhileonly28%viewhimassomeflavorofDemocrat.Inasimilarvein,Independents tend to view McConaughey as an Independent, three-quarters ofIndependentswithanopinionplacinghiminonethethreeindependentcategories:(Indpt.,LeanRepublican;TrueIndependent;Indpt.,LeanDemocratic).Table9:WhatisMatthewMcConaughey’sPartisanOrientation?PartisanOrientations

AllRegisteredVoters

Democrats Independents Republicans

ConservativeRepublican

9 1 3 22

ModerateRepublican

6 4 3 13

Indpt.,LeanRepublican

13 7 20 14

TrueIndependent

8 7 17 5

Indpt.,LeanDemocratic

19 21 22 14

ModerateDemocrat

11 22 6 4

LiberalDemocrat

11 15 7 10

Don’tKnow

23 24 22 18

3.The2022RepublicanPartyPrimariesTables10,12,and14containthevote intention for theGOPprimaryelections forgovernor, attorney general and agriculture commissioner of two groups ofRepublican primary voters: those who indicated they were very likely or almostcertain tovote(LikelyPrimaryVoters) in theMarch2022GOPprimaryandthosewho indicated theywere almost certain to vote in theMarch 2022 GOP primary(Most Likely Primary Voters). Tables 11 and 13 provide the proportion of likelyRepublican primary voterswhowould consider and neverwould consider votingforthefourGOPgubernatorialcandidatesandfourGOPattorneygeneralcandidatesrespectively.Table10providesthevoteintentionforthe2022Republicangubernatorialprimary.Amonglikelyprimaryvoters,GregAbbott’svoteintentionis61%,followedbyAllenWestwith13%,DonHuffineswith4%andChadPratherwith3%,alongwith19%who remained unsure. Among the most likely primary voters, Abbott’s voteintentionincreasesto64%,withWestremainingat13%,Huffinesrisingto5%andPratherremainingat3%,withadropintheunsureproportionto15%.

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Table10:VoteIntentionforthe2022RepublicanGubernatorialPrimaryCandidate Likely

PrimaryVoters%MostLikely

PrimaryVoters%GregAbbott 61 64AllenWest 13 13DonHuffines 4 5ChadPrather 3 3Unsure/Don’tKnow 19 15Similar to the case for the general election gubernatorial candidates, the likelyRepublican primary voters were asked if they would consider voting for, neverwould consider voting for, or did not know enough about the four GOPgubernatorialcandidatestobeabletosayeitherway(seeTable11). Almostnineoutoften(85%)oflikelyRepublicanprimaryvotersindicatedtheywouldconsidervotingforAbbottinthe2022GOPgubernatorialprimary,while11%saidtheyneverwouldconsidervotingforhimand4%indicatedtheydidnotknowenoughtohavean opinion either way. Slightly more than one-half (51%) of likely Republicanprimary voters said they would consider voting for West in the 2022 GOPgubernatorialprimary,comparedto12%whoneverwouldconsidervotingforhimand37%whodidn’tknowenoughabouthimtohaveanopinion.Slightlymorethanone-fifth(22%and21%)oflikelyRepublicanprimaryvoterswouldconsidervotingforHuffinesandPratherrespectively,comparedto17%and14%whoneverwouldconsidervotingforthemand61%and65%whodidnotknowenoughaboutthemtohaveanopinion.Table 11: Likely Republican Primary Voters Who Would Consider & NeverConsiderVotingForFourGOP2022GubernatorialCandidatesWouldVoteFor?

Abbott% West% Huffines% Prather%

WouldConsiderVotingFor

85 51 22 21


11 12 17 14


4 37 61 65

Table 12 provides the vote intention for the 2022 Republican attorney generalprimary.Amonglikelyprimaryvoters,KenPaxton’svoteintentionis50%,followedbyGeorgeP.Bushwith17%,EvaGuzmanwith6%andMattKrausewith2%,alongwith25%whoremainedunsure. Among themost likelyprimaryvoters,Paxton’s

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voteintentionincreasesto54%,Bush’svoteintentionrisesto18%,Guzman’sfallsto5%andKrause’sfallsto1%,withadropintheunsureproportionto22%.Table12:VoteIntentionforthe2022RepublicanAttorneyGeneralPrimaryCandidate Likely


PrimaryVoters%KenPaxton 50 54GeorgeP.Bush 17 18EvaGuzman 6 5MattKrause 2 1Unsure/Don’tKnow 25 22The likelyGOPprimary voterswere also asked if theywould consider voting for,neverwouldconsidervotingfor,ordidn’tknowenoughaboutthefourGOPattorneygeneralcandidates tohaveanopinioneitherway(seeTable13). More than two-thirds (69%) indicated they would consider voting for Paxton in the 2022 GOPattorneygeneralprimary, compared to11%whowouldneverconsidervoting forhimand20%whodidn’t knowenough about him tohave anopinion eitherway.More than two-fifths (42%) indicated they would consider voting for Bush,comparedto31%whoneverwouldconsidervotingforBushand27%whodidnotknowenoughabouthim. At thepresent timeanoverwhelmingmajorityof likelyGOP primary voters don’t know enough about either Guzman (64%) or Krause(73%)tobeabletosayiftheywouldorneverwouldconsidervotingforthem.Table 13: Likely Republican Primary Voters Who Would Consider & NeverConsiderVotingForFourGOP2022AttorneyGeneralCandidatesVotingFor? Paxton% Bush% Guzman% Krause%WouldConsiderVotingFor

69 42 19 14


11 31 17 13


20 27 64 73

Table 14 provides the vote intention for the Republican Party agriculturecommissionerrace.Amonglikelyprimaryvoters,SidMiller’svoteintentionis30%,followedbyJamesWhitewith5%andCareyCounsilwith2%,withmorethanthree-fifths (63%) of likely GOP primary voters still unsure. Among the most likelyprimaryvoters,Miller’svoteintentionrisesto34%,whileWhite’sdropsto3%andCounsil’sremainsat2%,withadeclineintheunsureproportionto61%.

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Table14:Vote Intention for the2022RepublicanAgricultureCommissionerPrimaryCandidate Likely


PrimaryVoters%SidMiller 30 34JamesWhite 5 3CareyCounsil 2 2Unsure/Don’tKnow 63 614.THE2022DEMOCRATICPARTYPRIMARIESSimilar to the case for the Republican primaries, the two competitiveDemocraticprimariesforstatewideofficewerealsoexamined.Here,individualswhoindicatedtheywereverylikelyoralmostcertain(LikelyPrimaryVoters)andalmostcertain(MostLikelyPrimaryVoters)tovote intheMarch2022DemocraticprimarywerequeriedontheirpreferencesintheracestocapturetheDemocraticnominationforlieutenantgovernor(Table15)andforattorneygeneral(Table16).Table 15: Vote Intention for the 2022 Democratic Lieutenant GovernorPrimaryCandidate Likely


PrimaryVoters%MikeCollier 26 25MatthewDowd 16 17Unsure/Don’tKnow 58 58Table16:VoteIntentionforthe2022DemocraticAttorneyGeneralPrimaryCandidate Likely


PrimaryVoters%LeeMerritt 20 20JoeJaworski 20 19Unsure/Don’tKnow 60 61Inthe2022Democraticprimaryforlieutenantgovernor,MikeCollierenjoysa10to8percentagepoint leadoverMatthewDowdamong the likelyand themost likelyDemocratic primary voters (26% to 16% and 25% to 17%), but with anoverwhelmingmajorityof these likelyDemocraticprimaryvoters(58%and58%)stillunsureaboutwhomtheywouldvoteforinthisrace.

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In the 2022 Democratic primary for attorney general, the survey results indicatethatLeeMerritt(20%and20%)andJoeJaworski(20%and19%)areinastatisticaldeadheat,withanoverwhelmingmajorityoftheselikelyDemocraticprimaryvoters(60%and61%)stillunsureaboutwhomtheywouldvoteforinthisrace.

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5.METHODOLOGICALAPPENDIXTheTexasHispanicPolicyFoundationconductedanonlinesurveysampleof1,402Texas registered voters between October 14 and 27, 2021, utilizing YouGov datacollection systems and processes. Sample instruments, oversight research andsurvey analysis was conducted by the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation incoordinationwithfacultyfromRiceUniversity.Therespondentswerematchedtoasampling frame on gender, age, race, and education. In addition to the standardsampleof1,000,anoversampleofatotalof402Hispanicrespondentswasincluded.The frame was constructed by stratified sampling from the full 2019 AmericanCommunity Survey (ACS) 1-year samplewith selectionwithin strata byweightedsamplingwithreplacements(usingthepersonweightsonthepublicusefile). Thematchedcaseswereweighted to thesampling frameusingpropensity scores.Thematched cases and the frame were combined and a logistic regression wasestimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age,gender,race/ethnicity,yearsofeducation,andregion.Thepropensityscoresweregrouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratifiedaccordingtothesedeciles.Theweightswerethenpost-stratifiedon2016and2020Presidentialvotechoice,anda four-waystratificationofgender,age (4-categories), race (4-categories), and education (4-categories), to produce the finalweight.

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2022 TEXAS GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION CONTEST