Jonathan Smoke | Chief Economist, Cox Automotive

TAX SEASON 2020

Source: Cox Automotive Analysis of IRS Data 2

In week 9, cumulative refunds approach 50%; by week 16 refunds are above 90%

2020 TAX REFUNDS SHOULD FOLLOW 2018-2019 PATTERN

CUMULATIVE TAX REFUNDS BY CALENDAR WEEK AND YEAR

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

2018 2019

Source: Cox Automotive 3

Weekly sales peak during peak tax refund season each year

2020 WEEKLY USED SALES SHOULD ALSO LOOK LIKE 2018-2019

USED RETAIL WEEKLY SALES INDEX (100=AVERAGE WEEK FOR YEAR)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

Wee

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k 9

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Wee

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k 50

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k 51

Wee

k 52

Refunds 2018 2019

Source: Manheim 4

A stable start to year, a normal spring bounce, a slightly stronger than normal summer, and a steadier fall expected

2020 WEEKLY PRICE TREND STARTS TO LOOK MORE NORMAL

3-YEAR-OLD MANHEIM MARKET REPORT PRICE TREND AND FORECAST

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52

Ave 2014 -2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Forecast Rev