2016 10 Agile Scotland

Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201

EVERY CORPSE ON EVEREST WAS ONCE AN EXTREMELY MOTIVATED PERSON, HIGHLY ENGAGED WITH INSPIRED LEADERS

HUMANS ARE NEITHER ANTS NOR DATA PROCESSORS

LEAN AGILE SCOTLAND 2016

Material in this presentation is either Copyright © 2016 Bangor University or Cognitive Edge Pte Ltd.. All Rights Reserved. Protected in part by copyright, patent and trademark and other law

GLADWELLISM THE HARD SELL OF A BIG THEME SUPPORTED BY DUBIOUS, INCOHERENT BUT DRAMATICALLY PRESENTED EVIDENCE (APPLEYARD, NEW STATESMAN 10APR14)

MAGPIE 3.0 A COLLECTION OF BRIGHT SHINY THINGS LOOSELY ASSEMBLED, CONNECTED BY PLATITUDES, DESIGNED SOLELY TO MAKE PEOPLE COMFORTABLE FOR MONEY

FAUX INDUSTRIALISATION TAKING AN ARTISAN PROCESS AND REDUCING IT TO A SIMPLISTIC SHORT TIME FRAME PROCESS BASED ON EXPLICIT SKILLS, MOSTLY LINKED TO ACCREDITATION


“MOSTLY HARMLESS”

PERSPECTIVE VORTICES


THE CYNEFIN CENTRE: NAVIGATING COMPLEXITY IN SOCIAL SYSTEMS

HOW DO WE AVOID THE HYPE AND FALSE PROMISES?

NATURALISING SENSE-MAKING (CYNEFIN FRAMEWORK)

SCIENCE PROVIDES A CONSTRAINT ON WHAT IS POSSIBLE AND

GUIDANCE ON HOW TO ACT AND TEST FOR COHERENCE

CASE BASED INTERPRETATIONS AND PROCESSES

CORRELATION OF FACTORS BASED ON OBSERVATION AND OTHER FORMS OF ENQUIRY, CONTEXT

SPECIFIC CLAIMS

CLASSIC SCIENCE

HYPOTHESIS IS TESTABLE CONTEXT SPECIFIC CLAIMS

PSEUDO-SCIENCE

SIMPLISTIC RECIPES, HYPED UNIVERSAL CLAIMS ETC.

Expl

anat

ion

Pred

ictio

n

Scientific method or ‘engineering’

Observation + hypothesis = method

Scalable at low risk Scale is high risk

ValuableInappropriate


TO THE ABSTRACT & SYMBOLIC …

MAKING SENSE OF THE WORLD IN ORDER TO ACT IN IT



HIGH ABSTRACTION, HUMAN METADATA DESCRIPTIVE NOT EVALUATIVE SOURCE DATA

Acting intuitively, instantly

The situation was analysed

logically

People thought deeply and made decisions based on principles

24 radiologists were asked to perform a familiar lung nodule detection task.

A picture of a gorilla, 48 times larger than the average nodule, was inserted in the last case.

83% of radiologists did not see the gorilla.

Eye-tracking showed that the majority of the those who missed the gorilla looked directly at it

Drew, Vo & Wolfe Psychol Sci. Sep 2013; 24(9): 1848–1853



REAL TIME DECISION SUPPORT AND ANOMALY DETECTION

20 40 60 80 100

020

4060

80

Doing it Right

An

inte

nse

driv

e to

ach

ieve

0 20 40 60 80 100

020

4060

80100

Self Imposed

An

inte

nse

driv

e to

ach

ieve


EXAPTATIONMANAGED SERENDIPITY



FRACTAL INSIGHT & THE SEE-ATTEND-ACT PRINCIPLE

20 40 60 80 100

020

4060

80

Doing it Right

An

inte

nse

driv

e to

ach

ieve

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

2040

6080

100

Over the top stressful

Pre

ssur

e fro

m m

anag

emen

t

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

020

4060

80100


Pre

ssur

e fro

m m

anag

emen

t

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

020

4060

80100


Pre

ssur

e fro

m s

elf

0 20 40 60 80 100

020

4060

80100

Self Imposed

An

inte

nse

driv

e to

ach

ieve

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Freedom too far

Dea

dlin

es to

o fa

r



FRACTAL THINKING

▸ User requirements capture through the day to day frustrations of everyday experience

▸ Measuring attitudes not compliance, lead indicators of dispositionality

▸ Nudge not yank approaches to change

▸ Knowledge/decision mapping to understand reality and contrast with the ‘ideal’

San Francisco Bay salt flats



UNDERSTANDING DECISION MAKING BOTTOM UP & TOP DOWNSenseMaker

What keeps decision makers awake at nights?

P1 P5 P3 P7 P2 P4 P6 P8

KO1KO2KO3KO4KO5KO6KO7KO8KO9

Decision mapping

What knowledge is used?

ASHEN

Compare to Process

Maps

Portfolio of knowledge projects

Map to Cynefin domains

Safe to Fail experiments in parallel

Quick win ordered actions

Synthesis & common

technologies

Feedback & monitoring


ANTHRO-SIMULATION

KOBAYASHI MARU


CARBON IS NOT SILICON, YET ...

TECHNO-FETISHISM



A POST FACT SOCIETY

ALL YOU NEED IN THIS LIFE IS IGNORANCE AND CONFIDENCE, AND THEN SUCCESS IS SURE

Mark Twain

THE EVIL THAT IS IN THE WORLD ALMOST ALWAYS COMES OF IGNORANCE, AND GOOD INTENTIONS MAY DO AS MUCH HARM AS MALEVOLENCE IF THEY LACK UNDERSTANDING.

Albert Camus

IGNORANCE IS THE CURSE OF GOD; KNOWLEDGE IS THE WING WHEREWITH WE FLY TO HEAVEN.

William Shakespeare


“MAN'S ALMOST INFINITE APPETITE FOR DISTRACTIONS”

THE DYSTOPIAN PRESENT

Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201

SOMETIMES YOU NEED TO REINVENT THE WHEEL

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2016 10 Agile Scotland