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March 19, 2014 | Raleigh, North Carolina 2014 Triangle CCIM Market Forecast

2014 Triangle CCIM Market Forecast

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2014 Triangle CCIM Market Forecast. March 19, 2014 | Raleigh, North Carolina. Outstanding U.S. CRE Debt. Total Commercial and Multifamily = $2.59+ Trillion Banks= $889 Billion (35.1%) CMBS/REMIC’s= $584 Billion (22.7%) GSE’s= $396 Billion (15.8%) - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: 2014  Triangle CCIM Market Forecast

March 19, 2014 | Raleigh, North Carolina2014 Triangle CCIM Market Forecast

Page 2: 2014  Triangle CCIM Market Forecast

Loans are subject to credit approval

Connecting ideas, capital and clients.

Outstanding U.S. CRE DebtTotal Commercial and Multifamily = $2.59+ Trillion Banks = $889 Billion (35.1%)

CMBS/REMIC’s = $584 Billion (22.7%)

GSE’s = $396 Billion (15.8%)

Insurance Cos. = $337 Billion (13.5%)

Other = $384 Billion (12.9%)

Page 3: 2014  Triangle CCIM Market Forecast

Loans are subject to credit approval

Connecting ideas, capital and clients.

CMBS Maturities CMBS maturities 2015 – 2017 = $350+ Billion CMBS multifamily maturities next 5 years

= $75 Billion

= 9,600 + loans

Page 4: 2014  Triangle CCIM Market Forecast

Loans are subject to credit approval

Connecting ideas, capital and clients.

2013 Lending Volume& 2014 Projections

2013 LENDING VOLUME

CMBS $87 Billion

Insurance Companies$58 Billion

Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac $28.7 / $25.9 Billion

FHA$23.89 Billion

2014 VOLUME PROJECTIONS

CMBS$110 Billion to Whatever?

Insurance Companies $62 Billion

Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac$28.7 / $25.9 Billion

FHA$16 to $17 Billion

Page 5: 2014  Triangle CCIM Market Forecast

Loans are subject to credit approval

Connecting ideas, capital and clients.

Property Types Multifamily – most liquid, I/O everywhere, local softness,

national strength Retail – anchored, focused on occupancy costs and

rollover rents\ Office – rollover, costs, rents, appear to be through the

trough Hospitality – get it while it’s hot Warehouse/Industrial, self-storage, single tenant

Page 6: 2014  Triangle CCIM Market Forecast

Loans are subject to credit approval

Connecting ideas, capital and clients.

Capital Markets Update

Rates: 10-Year UST – 1.60%

Spreads 200bps+ for Life Companies, 300bps+ for CMBS

Overall, 3.50% - 5.00%

One Year ago: Rates: 10-Year UST –

2.68% Spreads 125bps –

200bps for Life Companies, 200bps – 250bps for CMBS

Overall, 4.00% - 5.00%

Today:

Page 7: 2014  Triangle CCIM Market Forecast

Loans are subject to credit approval

Connecting ideas, capital and clients.

Capital Markets Update Proceeds: Investor appetite for CRE assets is robust Amortization: I/O for the asking LTV: Stated max of 75%, Mezzanine available to 85% Rate-lock: Life companies, up to one year forward;

CMBS, remains a trade Prepayment: Life companies, YM but willing to deal;

CMBS, Defeasance to maturity

Page 8: 2014  Triangle CCIM Market Forecast

Loans are subject to credit approval

Connecting ideas, capital and clients.

BB&T Real Estate Funding Balance sheet financing, exclusively through

Grandbridge Fixed-rate, non-recourse, life company style All property types, excluding hospitality at this time Terms: 7 – 10 years Amortization: 30 years; I/O available Prepayment: Yield Maintenance for half the term only;

0.50% penalty thereafter