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Welcome to the 2008
NC-CCIM
Triangle Market
Forecast
Triangle
Office Market
Thomas “Skip” Hill, CCIM
Vice President, Raleigh
Highwoods Properties, Inc.
Wall Street vs. Main Street
“What became clear after only a few sessions was a marked difference from the doom and gloom we hear about to what is actually happening at property level. A large number of CEO’s, across all property types
and the world, have not yet seen a significant slowdown or marked decrease in rents or
occupancies. The CEO’s are likely describing what they are seeing and however, the reality is that weaker conditions are likely or the horizon.”
Five Emerging Themes
1. Real estate fundamentals are not yet indicative of current economic uncertainty/weakness (national perspective)
2. Cap rate trajectory is unclear3. Development has shifted from a source of growth to
a source of risk4. Valuations and the impact of financial services
weakness remains uncertain5. Liquidity is king
Highwoods Triangle Division Office Profile
• 5M SF owned, leased and managed• Over 500 tenants• Mixture of Class A/Class B properties• 91.5% HIW occupancy vs. 87.1% Triangle occupancy (as of
12/31/07)• Dispositions 1.2M SF +/- (2004 – present)• Development 900K SF +/- (2004 - present)• Joint venture and wholly-owned facilities• 200 acres land holdings (develop approx. 2M SF of office)• Selectively searching for acquisitions
Skip’s Top Ten ExpectationsTriangle Office Market for 2008
10. New office developments will slow, but not stop11. Demand will slow, but will remain steady12. Triangle will continue to enjoy regional recession “insulation” (not
“immunity”)13. Government and universities to have significant impact on real
estate development14. Rental rates remain flat in 2008 but increase in 2009-201015. Free rent/concessions will continue throughout the year16. New office developers less likely to enter Triangle17. Continued trends for mixed-use/densification18. “Wait and See” year with slow progress for Triangle1. Tar Heels take the Blue Devils in the finals of NCAA
Triangle
Industrial/Flex Market
Ed Brown, CCIM, SIOR
NAI Carolantic Realty
The Triangle Industrial/Flex Market
The Triangle Industrial/Flex Market
Triangle
Retail Market
Vijay Shah, CCIM
Rivercrest Realty Investors
The Triangle Retail Market
PROJECT LOCATION AVAILABLE SF PSF RETAIL TICAM ADDRESS ANCHOR TYPE DEVELOPER NOTESPark West Village
Morrisville Office 300,000 Retail 700,000
Low 30's $5.00 Cary Pkwy and NC 54
(not yet announced)
Mixed Use Casto/1st Carolina
North Hills Expansion
Raleigh 145,000 Retail 275,000 Office
140 Hotel Rooms 400 Residential
Units and 200 CRCC units
low to mid $30's
still being formulated
Six Forks Rd. and 440
not disclosing at this time
Mixed Use Kane Realty 40% Pre Leased Renaissance Raleigh to come
East 54 Chapel Hill 60,000 $29 $4.51 Hwy 54 $ 15 501 Chapel Hill, NC
(not yet announced)
Mixed Use East/West Partners
Buckhorn Village
Chapel Hill 1.1 million early stages
early stages
Interstate 40-85 and Buckhorn Road on the western edge of the county.
Wish list: Ikea and Cabela's Outdoor Furniture
Mall/Power Center and Mixed Use
East/West Partners & Fugo
Plantation Point
Raleigh 391,132 $23 -$25 $3.40 US Hwy 1 and 540
BJ's, Circuit City, Marshalls, Dollar Tree
Retail Cypress Equities Lots of Vacancy
Waverly Place
Cary 170,000 $32-$36 $6.50 Kildaire Farm and Tryon
Whole Foods (55,000 sf)
Mixed use Zapolski & Rudd
Parkside Town Commons
Cary 700,000 Cary/RTP (not yet announced)
Mixed use Kite Development
Fall 09
Broadstone Station
Apex 350,000 Rt 55 and Hwy 1 Super Wal-Mart
Mixed use Kite Development
New Proposed Mixed-Use Centers
The Triangle Retail Market
New Retailers
Retailer Type Location Sq. footage Other
Badcock Furniture Furniture Garner 20,000 sf
Trader Joe's Grocery Chapel Hill, Cary 20,000 sf
Fresh Market Expansion
Grocery Chapel Hill, Cary 18-25,000 sf
Bloom Grocery Raleigh, Wake Forest
38-40,000 sf Similar to Whole Foods, subsidiary of Food Lion
HH Gregg Appliance & Electronics
Raleigh 28-35,000 sf
Martin & Osa Clothing Crabtree Valley Mall - Raleigh
Spin-off of American Eagle
New Restaurants
Fleming's Prime Steakhouse
Crabtree Valley Mall
The Original SoupMan Fast Casual Raleigh and Durham Franchise
McCormick & Schmick's Seafood Crabtree Valley Mall
Bankruptcies
Hollywood Video/ Movie Gallery
Friedman's Jewelers
The Sharper Image
Zales Jewelers
Lillian Vernon
The Triangle Retail Market
Triangle Retail Vacancy Trends
Triangle Retail Supply and Demand Trends
Triangle Average Retail Rents by Submarket
Triangle
Multifamily Market
Jim Scofield, SIOR
JBMRA/Sperry Van Ness International
The Triangle Apartment Market
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
# Units
The Triangle Compared to Other Major Markets
0
50
100
150
200
250
0-99 100-249 250-499 > 500
# UNITS
Property Size Breakdown
0-99
100-249
250-499
> 500
144
109213
1996 & Newer 1980 - 1995 Before 1980
Property Age Breakdown
90,878 Units
Apartment Operations
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
% Communities Offering Concessions # Mos Free
Vacancy by Submarket
Concessions% Annual Rent Growth
$9,600/Unit Average Annual Rent ($800/mo)$3,250/Unit Average Annual Expenses
Vacancy
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
% Communities Offering Concessions # Mos Free
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Triangle Wake Durham Orange
Completions Under Construction Planned
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
Apartment Development
2007 Completions2008 Under Construction & Planned
Completions
Vacancy
Concessions
$469,179,528
$776,115,500
$1,086,648,500
$764,758,106
$326,407,500
$0
$200,000,000
$400,000,000
$600,000,000
$800,000,000
$1,000,000,000
$1,200,000,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 YTD
$80,762 $81,561$75,437
$64,403$66,968
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 YTD
5.42%
5.86%6.54%
5.41% 5.79%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 YTD
Apartment Investments
Total Apartment Sales
$/Unit
Average CAP Rate
National Averages
INVESTMENTS
Salvatore “Sam” DiFranco,
CCIM, SIOR,CEA
The One Source for Commercial Real Estate
Wanted: Value add, income producing, upside potential
with credit tenants, under market rental rates in great locations?
Instead of:Over priced, empty / partially leased, under
performing junk…..
There are not any fire sales for good commercial properties
2007 Record Yearfor Triangle Real Estate
• Office
• Multi Family
• Retail
• Industrial
Total
Increase of 49% over 2006
$ 977M
$ 991M
$ 620M
$ 483M
$ 3,071B
2008 Outlook• Debt market has changed the players• Supply and demand• Buyers’ capacity and sellers’
expectations to reset• Cap rates no longer compressing• 1031 / New administration?• More fundamental and less financial
engineering
Commercial Real Estate Fundamentals Still Healthy
• Credit concerns rooted in the sub-prime residential problems
• Commercial delinquencies < 1%
• Cash and equity buyers will benefit
• Foreign investors (4X) active in US
• Quality, location and operations will dictate value
STOP: Reading the newspapersSTOP: Watching the business newsSTART: Enjoying the resiliency of the
Triangle market and all it has to offer
UNDERSTAND CRE continues to outperform the
stock market and remains an attractive investment vehicle due to its stability and opportunity for diversification
Thank You!