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www.conferenceboard.ca www.conferenceboard.ca 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference Board of Canada October 2013

2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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Page 1: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

www.conferenceboard.ca www.conferenceboard.ca

2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal

Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada

Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference Board of Canada

October 2013

Page 2: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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• Brief Economic Overview (Quebec/Montréal)

• Recent Tourism Performance (Half-Year & Full Year 2013)

• Projected Tourism Performance (2014 and beyond)

• Methodology/Assumptions/Concerns

• Results

• Aggregate

• Highlight on key international markets

Agenda

Page 3: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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• Real GDP growth will slowly improve and is forecast to

reach 2.2 per cent in 2014 (up from 1.4 in 2013 and 1.0

in 2012).

• The recovery in exports seems finally within reach, as

key sectors experienced much stronger growth recently.

• Household consumption to strengthen in 2014 with

modest job growth and no planned increases in sales

taxes or income taxes.

Quebec Outlook

Page 4: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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4

2013 Real GDP Growth (per cent, basic prices, 2007 $)

5,4%

3,5%

3,2%

1,5%

1,5%

1,4%

1,3%

1,2%

1,1%

0,8%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%

NL

SK

AB

MB

BC

QUE

PEI

ON

NS

NB

Canada = 1.7%

Page 5: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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2014 Real GDP Growth (per cent, basic prices, 2007 $)

3,0%

3,0%

2,9%

2,4%

2,2%

2,2%

2,2%

1,9%

1,0%

0,7%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4%

BC

AB

NS

SK

ON

QUE

MB

NB

PEI

NL

Canada = 2.4%

Page 6: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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Montréal Outlook

• Montréal’s GDP growth is forecast to pick up to 2.1 per cent

in 2014, up from 1.3 per cent in 2013 and 1.1 per cent in

2012.

• Employment is expected to post more modest growth of 0.6

per cent in 2014, down from the 2 per cent growth recorded

this year. This will leave the unemployment rate virtually

unchanged from the 8 per cent recorded this year.

• Retail sales are expected to post modest growth of 3.4 per

cent and 3.9 per cent, respectively, over the next two years.

Page 7: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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Tourism Sector Revenues Growth – Quebec % Change in Tourism Revenues (Jan-June 2013 vs. Jan-June 2012)

2,4%

1,7%

1,5%

2,7%

3,4%

5,6%

2,5%

-1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%

Air Transportation

Other Transportation

Accommodation

Food & Beverage

Recreation & Entertainment

Travel Services

Tourism Sector - Overall

Tourism Sector Revenues (Canada) = 3.0%

Page 8: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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Tourism Sector Revenues Growth - Montréal % Change in Tourism Revenues (Jan-June 2013 vs. Jan-June 2012)

2,4%

2,2%

2,4%

3,0%

1,5%

5,4%

2,5%

-1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%

Air Transportation

Other Transportation

Accommodation

Food & Beverage

Recreation & Entertainment

Travel Services

Tourism Sector - Overall

Tourism Sector Revenues (Canada) = 3.0%

Page 9: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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Tourism Sector Revenues Growth - Québec City % Change in Tourism Revenues (Jan-June 2013 vs. Jan-June 2012)

3,1%

-2,0%

-2,1%

5,0%

3,4%

6,5%

1,7%

-4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

Air Transportation

Other Transportation

Accommodation

Food & Beverage

Recreation & Entertainment

Travel Services

Tourism Sector - Overall

Tourism Sector Revenues (Canada) = 3.0%

Page 10: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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Overnight Visitor Spending (2013) % Change in Tourism Spending (2013 vs. 2012)

T.P.I. (Quebec, Canada) = 2.5%, 2.5%

5,7%

4,4%

2,8% 2,1%

3,9% 3,7%

5,6%

7,1%

5,7%

4,4% 4,3%

0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%

Page 11: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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Overnight Visitor Spending (2013) % Change in Tourism Spending (2013 vs. 2012)

T.P.I. (Quebec City, Montreal) = 2.3%, 2.6%

3,0% 2,9%

4,5%

1,7%

4,9% 5,6%

4,8%

6,4%

3,9% 4,3%

-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%

Page 12: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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Tourism Growth Projections (2013) Overnight province-visits (2013/2012)

3,1%

0,1% 0,5%

-0,1%

0,8% 0,9%

1,7%

3,6%

2,5% 2,1%

1,4%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

Page 13: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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Tourism Growth Projections (2013) Overnight person-visits (2013/2012)

0,5% 0,3%

1,3%

0,2%

2,1% 2,2% 1,6%

3,0%

1,9% 1,4%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

Page 14: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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Tourism Growth – Montréal (2013) Overnight person-visits (2013/2012)

1,3%

1,4%

4,5%

1,7%

0,8%

1,0%

0,9%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%

Overall

Domestic

Business

Pleasure

VFR

US

Overseas

Growth in Room Nights Sold (Tourism Activity) = 1.5%

Page 15: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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Tourism Growth – Québec City (2013) Overnight person-visits (2013/2012)

0,3%

0,2%

-2,3%

0,6%

0,6%

1,4%

-0,6%

-3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2%

Overall

Domestic

Business

Pleasure

VFR

US

Overseas

Growth in Room Nights Sold (Tourism Activity) = - 0.6%

Page 16: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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Approach/Methodology Used to Establish

Forecasts

– Tourism forecast originates from economic drivers

(GDP, disposable income, employment, exchange

rates, prices, etc.)

– Various non-economic factors are also considered

(the role of air capacity, new attractions,

infrastructure or major events, specific travel related

issues/costs and consumer confidence)

Page 17: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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Key Economic Assumptions

– Economic growth is expected to slightly pick up

pace in 2014 (most markets – incl. Quebec)

– Employment growth expected to be slightly stronger

along with disposable income growth (most

markets)

– Canadian dollar (vs. US) to remain fairly stable and

only modest increases in oil prices

– Global economic/financial concerns expected to

ease as recovery gains traction which should boost

consumer confidence

Page 18: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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Other Considerations

– Overall, the appeal of Canadian attractions has not

increased appreciably over the past few years

– There is a lingering perception that Canada’s

tourism product does not offer the same value for

money as other destinations

– Canadians continue to take many more longer

duration vacations (of 6 or more nights) outside of

Canada than in Canada

– Only modest growth in non-stop domestic air

capacity expected for most parts of Canada

Page 19: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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Appeal of Canadian Attractions (per cent of 1,500 Canadian respondents rating each destination as

“highly appealing”)

Iconic attraction April 2013 April 2009 Change

Vancouver 47.5 47.0 0.5

Banff/Jasper National Parks 47.1 51.2 -4.1

Quebec City 40.2 41.2 -1.0

Niagara Falls 38.5 39.1 -0.6

Montreal 36.0 37.5 -1.5

Arctic Cruise 34.8 38.0 -3.2

Whistler/Blackcomb Mountain 33.7 31.2 2.5

Halifax 32.0 32.2 -0.2

Fundy National Park/Hopewell Rocks 30.7 31.6 -0.9

Ottawa/Rideau Canal/Parliament Hill 27.0 31.0 -4.0

Toronto/CN Tower 26.7 22.3 4.4

Montreal International Jazz Festival 24.8 25.8 -1.0

Calgary Stampede 24.2 22.1 2.1

Gros Morne National Park 23.4 24.0 -0.6

Winnipeg 16.3 12.3 4.0

Page 20: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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Difference in the Appeal by Actual Visitors (percentage-point difference in the share of actual visitors rating it as

“highly appealing,” April 2013 survey versus April 2009 survey)

Page 21: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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Perceptions of Canada as a Tourism Destination (per cent of Canadian respondents)

86%

84%

83%

81%

81%

79%

78%

78%

77%

76%

73%

71%

68%

66%

64%

64%

64%

63%

56%

52%

11%

13%

15%

15%

16%

18%

20%

19%

19%

21%

23%

25%

26%

27%

29%

29%

29%

30%

32%

36%

2%

3%

2%

3%

3%

2%

2%

3%

4%

4%

4%

4%

7%

7%

7%

7%

8%

7%

11%

13%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Safe destination for tourists

Range of natural attractions

Overall cleanliness

Range of things to see and do

Friendliness of locals

Good quality of accomodation

Good quality of food and beverage in restaurants

Good quality tourism experiences

Acceptance of other cultures

Range of sporting or recreational activity experiences

Favourable summer weather

Range of cultural tourism experiences

Good value of food and beverage in restaurants

Good quality of transportation services

Range of night life and entertainment experiences

Good value of accomodation

Good quality of the shopping experience

Overall good value for money

Good value of transportation

Good value for shopping

Very High or High Moderate Very Low or Low

Page 22: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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Perceptions of Canada as a Tourism Destination (difference in rating provided by outbound vs. domestic travellers)

-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4%

Range of night life and entertainment…

Acceptance of other cultures

Range of sporting or recreational activity…

Good quality of transportation services

Overall Cleanliness

Safe destination for tourists

Good quality of the shopping experience

Range of natural attractions

Good quality of accomodation

Range of things to see and do

Range of cultural tourism experiences

Good value of transportation

Good quality of food and beverage in restaurants

Good quality tourism experiences

Favourable summer weather

Friendliness of locals

Good value of accomodation

Good value for shopping

Good value of food and beverage in restaurants

Overall good value for money

Page 23: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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Vacation Trips of Six or More Nights Within and Outside Canada in the Past Three Years (Canadian respondents, by region)

Page 24: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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24 Source: BACK Aviation Solutions

Direct Air Capacity – Domestic (Non-stop seat capacity to Quebec and Montréal, 2003-2013)

3 000 000

4 000 000

5 000 000

6 000 000

7 000 000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Province of Quebec Montréal

Page 25: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

101,7 94,7 98,5

94,7

102,8 102,5

74,3 74,1

83,8 77,9 78,4 83,6

88,9 90,7 90,7 90,7

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Consumer Confidence – Canada

Page 26: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

111,3 102,6

98,6 91,1

96,4 103,9

79,0 72,9

88,5 82,1 78,4

83,4 89,8 92,1 92,1 92,1

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Consumer Confidence – Quebec

Page 27: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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Overnight Visitor Spending (2014) % Change in Tourism Spending (2014 vs. 2013)

T.P.I. (Quebec, Canada) = 2.3%, 2.3%

3,5%

6,6%

4,9%

4,2% 4,4% 4,7%

5,6%

4,7%

5,7% 5,1% 4,9%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

Page 28: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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Overnight Visitor Spending (2014) % Change in Tourism Spending (2014 vs. 2013)

T.P.I. (Quebec City, Montreal) = 2.3%, 2.3%

5,5%

4,5% 4,5% 4,7% 5,1%

5,9%

6,8%

5,7% 5,4% 4,9%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

Page 29: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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Tourism Growth Projections (2014) Overnight province-visits (2014/2013)

0,7%

3,6%

2,1%

1,6% 1,8%

2,1%

3,0%

2,2%

3,1% 2,6%

2,2%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

Page 30: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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Tourism Growth Projections (2014) Overnight person-visits (2014/2013)

2,7% 1,9% 2,1% 2,1% 2,5%

3,3% 4,0%

3,1% 2,8% 2,2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

Page 31: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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Tourism Growth – Montréal (2014) Overnight person-visits (2014/2013)

2,1%

2,1%

2,7%

2,1%

0,8%

2,0%

1,9%

0% 1% 2% 3%

Overall

Domestic

Business

Pleasure

VFR

US

Overseas

Growth in Room Nights Sold (Tourism Activity) = 2.0%

Page 32: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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Tourism Growth – Québec City (2014) Overnight person-visits (2014/2013)

1,9%

2,0%

2,1%

2,0%

0,6%

2,6%

0,9%

0% 1% 2% 3%

Overall

Domestic

Business

Pleasure

VFR

US

Overseas

Growth in Room Nights Sold (Tourism Activity) = 1.9%

Page 33: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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33 Sources: Statistics Canada (2011 CITIES), Statistics Canada (2012 ITS), The Conference Board of Canada

Tourism Projections – Montréal (2013-2017) Overnight person-visits

Page 34: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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34 Sources: Statistics Canada (2011 CITIES), Statistics Canada (2012 ITS), The Conference Board of Canada

Tourism Projections – Québec City (2013-2017) Overnight person-visits

Page 35: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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- Longer-term trend has not been in our favour

- Compared with early 2000’s, Americans face relatively high Canadian

dollar, high gas prices and passport requirements for air/land/sea

- Including transportation costs, visiting Canadian cities are not as price

competitive as US cities (however, gap is narrowing slowly)

- American consumer confidence levels still subdued

- Direct air capacity from key U.S. source markets not expected to

expand significantly

U.S. Travel Market Current issues facing travellers to Canada in 2014

Page 36: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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36 Source: Statistics Canada .

Overnight U.S. Residents by Auto (Quebec Entries)

Down 35% since 2002

0

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

1 400 000

1 600 0002

000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

20

10

2011

2012

Page 37: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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37 Source: Statistics Canada .

Overnight U.S. Residents by Air (Quebec Entries)

Still down from 2000 (at a national level, less capacity)

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

700 000

800 000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Page 38: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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38 Source: Statistics Canada .

Overnight U.S. Residents by Other Modes (Quebec Entries)

More than 43% down from 2000

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Page 39: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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39 Source: BACK Aviation Solutions

Direct Air Capacity – US (Non-stop seat capacity to Quebec and Montréal, 2003-2013)

2 000 000

2 100 000

2 200 000

2 300 000

2 400 000

2 500 000

2 600 000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Province of Quebec Montréal

Page 40: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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Consumer Confidence – US (1985=100)

96,6

79,8

96,1 100,3

105,9 103,3

58,0

45,2

54,5 58,1

67,1 75,4

84,6 88,0 89,6 89,6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Page 41: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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41 Sources: Statistics Canada (2012), The Conference Board of Canada

Overnight US travel to Quebec (000’s province-visits)

1 600

1 700

1 800

1 900

2 000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f

0.8% -0.8%

2.0%

2.0%

1.7%

2.5%

0.2% 4.5%

-6.3%

Canada 1.2% growth 2013 (estimate)

Page 42: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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42 Sources: Statistics Canada , The Conference Board of Canada

Overnight US travel to Quebec (% Change in visits over previous year)

2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f

US by Car -1.0% 0.9% 1.2% 0.9% 1.9%

US by Plane 5.1% 3.5% 3.4% 3.2% 3.7%

US by Other -5.0% 3.3% 1.5% 1.3% 2.0%

Total to Quebec 0.8% 2.0% 2.0% 1.7% 2.5%

Page 43: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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43

Overall volumes still recovering from 2009

Many traditional source markets continue to face economic challenges

Emerging markets now facing stronger economic headwinds

Strike by Canadian foreign service officers - lingering effects?

Political unrest – Syria, North Africa

Overseas Travel Market Current issues facing travellers to Canada in 2014

Page 44: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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44 Source: BACK Aviation Solutions

Direct Air Capacity – Overseas (Non-stop seat capacity to Quebec and Montréal, 2003-2013)

1 000 000

1 500 000

2 000 000

2 500 000

3 000 000

3 500 000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Province of Quebec Montréal

Page 45: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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45 Sources: Statistics Canada , The Conference Board of Canada

Overnight Overseas travel to Quebec (000’s province-visits)

800

850

900

950

1 000

1 050

1 100

1 150

1 200

1 250

1 300

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f

-4.1%

4.6%

0.3%

1.6% 2.5%

3.0%

9.5%

-14.8%

5.5%

Canada 1.5% growth 2013 (estimate)

Page 46: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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46 Sources: Statistics Canada , The Conference Board of Canada

Select European Markets to Quebec (% Change in visits over previous year)

2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f

France -2.2% -0.6% 1.2% 2.2% 7.0%

Germany -3.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 3.0%

Italy 0.0% 1.6% 1.5% 2.2% 4.0%

Spain -2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.8%

Switzerland 1.2% 2.4% 2.8% 2.9% 5.0%

UK -2.9% -1.6% -0.2% 0.3% 2.5%

Page 47: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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47 Sources: Statistics Canada , The Conference Board of Canada

Select Other Overseas Markets to Quebec (% change in visits over previous year)

2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f

Australia 1.5% 3.6% 3.7% 3.8% 6.0%

China 15.0% 15.5% 15.3% 15.6% 17.0%

India -2.0% 3.5% 5.5% 5.8% 6.4%

Japan 3.0% -0.9% -1.3% -0.7% 0.0%

Mexico 3.5% 4.1% 4.4% 3.7% 5.0%

South Korea 4.2% 4.1% 3.7% 2.8% 1.7%

Taiwan 8.0% 1.2% 1.3% 0.7% 0.6%

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2014

Overall tourism activity to strengthen compared to 2012 and 2013

Domestic pleasure travel still dominated by shorter getaways, which will

get a boost from consumer confidence and disposable income gains

Longer duration domestic pleasure travel remains under pressure from

outbound intentions and value for money considerations

Weakness from European markets to ease slightly but expect stronger

headwinds from emerging markets

2015 -2017

Growth expected to strengthen (volumes/$), aided by improving

economic factors, confidence and major events

Summary

Page 49: 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal - Tourisme Laval · 2014 Tourism Outlook - Montréal Perspective from The Conference Board of Canada Greg Hermus Associate Director, The Conference

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