2011 08 23 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report

8/4/2019 2011 08 23 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report

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MIG BANK Forex Broker 14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel Switzerland

Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 [email protected] www.migbank.com

WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH

M

S-TERMMULTI-DAY

L-TERMMULTI-WEEK

STRATEGY/POSITION

ENTRYLEVEL

OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP

EUR/USD Await directional trade setup into 1.4060 or 1.4580.GBP/USD Await fresh signal.USD/JPY Buy stop 3 77.20 80.20/81.50/83.30 75.90USD/CHF Await signal. Possibly looking to buy lower.USD/CAD Await buy trade setup above 0.9810.AUD/USD Await new sell trade setup below 1.0310.GBP/JPY Sell limit 3 127.35 126.35/125.00/123.00 128.35EUR/JPY Await fresh signal. Look to sell higher.EUR/GBP SHORT 3 0.8720 0.8680/0.8610/0.8500 (Entered on 19/08/2011) 0.8760EUR/CHF Possibly looking to buy lower.GOLD LONG 3 1869 1920/2100/2400 (Entered on 19/08/2011) 1852SILVER Await trade setup.

DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT23 August, 2011

Ron William, CMT, MSTA

Bijoy Kar, CFA

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit w ill be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry

point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in mor e profit. All orders are valid until the next report is

published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.
http://www.migbank.com/mailto:[email protected]://www.migbank.com/http://www.migbank.com/mailto:[email protected]://www.migbank.com/


2/15

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EURUSD remains bearish under resistance at 1.4420/1.4580.

EUR/USD remains bearish, despite the recent sharp reactionary bouncewhich eventually stalled around resistance at 1.4420 (pivot zone). This

confirms yet another bearish signal, weighed down by additional failed

breakouts (see red arrows) from this major Bermuda triangle pattern,

which has proved costly to most investors and traders.

We prefer to open a trade setup once this pattern triggers a meaningfuldirectional breakout into either 1.4160 or 1.4580 (on a closing basis).

Our bearish view remains in play while the downtrend (from May 04th)holds. A resumption lower will target 1.3962 (200-DMA), where a large

amount of die-hard trend followers will be watching closely for repeat

support or a big squeeze lower toward our initial objectives at 1.3770 and

1.3410. Only a close above 1.4580 will lead to a reassessment of this view.

Inversely, the US dollar index is maintaining consolidation above keysupport at 73.50-73.00. We expect this level to hold (as the last point of

defence), helping launch a rebound back into 80.00 over the multi-

week/month horizon. COT liquidity readings are currently neutral and must

return back to our upside t rigger level of 15000 net long contracts.

SPECIAL REPORT :EUR/USD A Fall From Grace ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410.Please select link: REPORT VIDEO

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Awaiting Directional Trade Setup into 1.4160 or 1.4580.

EUR/USD

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

EUR/USD

EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

US Dollar Index daily and weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EURUSD's BERMUDA TRIANGLE

REVERSALPATTERN

AT 200 DMA(1.3962)

PIVOT ZONE

TREND2 YEARS(1.3880)

FAILEDBREAKOUTS

REVERSALPATTERNS

+

-

STILLUNWINDING!

US$ INDEX(Weekly)(4 YEARS)

TD EXHAUSTIONBUY SIGNAL

+27% +19%

TRIGGER(15000)

COT LIQUIDITY

KEYSUPPORT

(73.50)

13

US DOLLAR INDEX(Daily 2 years)

9

200-DMA(76.54)

TDEXHAUSTIONBUY SIGNALS
http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedmailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdf


3/15

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A re-test of 1.6747 remains possible near-term.

GBP/USD found support at 1.6111 and has since pushed back over the1.6476/78 ceiling, reaching 1.6618 thus far, next targeting a return to

1.6747.

Short-term structure remains positive and we continue to be biasedtowards a return to 1.6747 while above 1.6421. Below this level will

weaken our shorter-term bullish stance.

However due to structure present since 1.6111, we would expect anypotential break over 1.6747 to be minimal, with resistance expected close

to 1.6800.

We also view the recent break down to 1.6421 as the first signs of abreakdown in structure, so remain wary of aggressively following

momentum at these levels, keeping our options open for possible signs of

exhaustion too.

Failure to remain above 1.6093 (200-day MA) will warn of a fresh relapsetowards 1.5781, in the longer-term.


Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

GBP/USD

GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

GBP/USD weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]


4/15

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Potential BUY signal after NEW Record Low.

USD/JPY has developed a potential DeMark exhaustion buy signal, afterlast week's new post WWII record low which was carved out at 75.95. The

reversal signal is also taking place following the second post intervention

retracement (PIR II) in 2011, which is holding around multi-day support

near 76.30-25.

We remain bullish in the medium/long-term, watching for a sustained moveabove our initial upside trigger level at 77.00-77.20. This would initiate our

buy trade setup, offering a resumption of the preferred new structural bull-

cycle into the all-important psychological level at 80.00, near 80.24 (post

BOJ intervention II high).

Keep in mind that such a scenario would help reactivate the longer-termmonthly DeMark exhaustion signal, with TD Risk lines still holding at 79.83

and 76.79. Remember, only a sustained weekly close below here and 76.25

will lead to a reassessment of our view.


Buy stop 3 at 77.20, Obj: 80.20/81.50/83.30, Stop:75.90


USD/JPY

USD/JPY daily and weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

WAVE 5

83.30

USD/JPY(Daily 1 YEAR)

EARTHQUAKESHOCK!

POST INTERVENTIONRETRACEMENT (PIR I)

POSTG7

MOVEHIGH

82.00

PIR II

80.24

POSTBOJ

MOVEHIGH

TDEXHAUSTIONBUYSIGNAL AFTER

NEW POST WWII LOW(75.95)

MONTHLY TDEXHAUSTIONBUYSIGNAL

USD/JPY Weekly(2007 2011)

ENDINGDIAGONAL

PATTERNBREAKOUT

TARGET(88-85)

13


5/15

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Tight consolidation continues. Pullback sought.

USD/CHF when viewed from a weekly perspective has the appearance of apossible false break lower. With this in mind, we continue to favour the

formation of a higher low versus 0.7071 for a further recovery leg higher.

However, we are inclined to wait for a pullback before committing to longpositioning, expecting a breakout from the recent tight hourly

consolidation between 0.7770 and 0.8017, with a bias to the downside.

We also remain of the view that the current region may potentially offermedium-term scope for USD/CHF long positioning.

However, we are also wary of issues in the Eurozone periphery which havebeen responsible for the extreme pricing we see now. We await the

appropriate short-term set up, keeping an eye on periphery government

bond yields.


Await signal. Possibly looking to buy lower.

USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


USD/CHFUSD/CHF

USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


6/15

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Unwinding beneath 1.0000.

USD/CADs accelerated recovery is finally unwinding, having reached thatall-important 1.0000 parity level.

However, expect to see further unwinding into near-term support at0.9751 and 0.9670, before a resumption higher. We are watching for a

renewed buy trade setup, favouring a major upsurge into 1.0210 plus.

Elsewhere, EUR/CAD is still also unwinding from overbought condition,having recently accelerated above its 200-day MA. Key resistance at

1.4379 (June swing high) is likely to hold.

CHF/CAD is consolidating after its sharp decline from extremelyoverbought conditions, having triggered a bearish reversal pattern. Key

support can be found at 1.2260 (17th Aug swing low), then 1.1880 and

1.1240.


Await Buy Trade Setup Above 0.9810.Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

USD/CAD

USD/CAD daily and weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD/CAD(Weekly )

BULLISHREVERSAL

PATTERNEXTENDS

HIGHER

USD/CAD(Daily)

MAJOR LOW(0.9446)

200-DMA(0.9808)

MAJOR RESISTANCE

EUR/CAD(Daily)

50%(1.3466)

200-DMA(1.3676)

61.8%(1.3379)

REVERSALPATTERN

CHF/CAD (Daily)

200-dMA(1.0932)


7/15

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Sharp decline unwinds from 1.0000 (parity).

AUD/USDs sharp decline is unwinding after reaching key level at 1.0000(parity). We are watching for new sell trade setup into this bounce.

The current oversold bounce is likely to hold for a few sessions and wewould look to sell into this for a resumption back into 1.0000 and 0.9706.

Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains weak against the New Zealand dollar.The pair is still locked within its new bear cycle structure while it holds

beneath its 200-day MA. Key support can be found at 1.2320.

The Aussie dollar is unwinding against the Japanese yen, following itssharp pattern breakout which extended beneath key support at 80.42

(61.8% Fib). The move adds to current risk aversion in the global financial

community.


Await New Sell Trade Setup below 1.0310.

AUD/USD


AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

AUD/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

AUD/USD (Daily 1 YEAR)

TD RISK(1.0935)

TD RISK(1.1102)

TDEXHAUSTIONSELLSIGNALS

200-DMA(1.0305)

200-DMACAPSBEARMKT

AUD/NZD(Daily)

KEY SUPPORT1.2319 / 1.2100

13

38.2%(84.09)

61.8%

(80.42)

50%(82.25)

AUD/JPY(Daily)

TD EXHAUSTIONSELL SIGNAL

BREAKOUTADDS TO

RISKAVERSION

200-DMA(84.04)


8/15

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Lower high sought for fresh weakness.

GBP/JPY remains close to the 127.00 level, so we maintain our originalscenario of a lower high in the 127.35 region for now, with the expectation

of an eventual final leg lower in the fall from 130.85, following the BOJ

intervention earlier in the month.

The weekly timeframe continues to contain price within a falling channel,also maintaining our downside bias. However, we expect strong support

to manifest between 118.85 and 122.36, should the pair weaken to those

levels.

Focusing on the shorter-term timeframe, we see scope for a return to therecent low at 123.31 ahead of a potential recovery higher.

Longer-term we remain biased to a return to the region near 190.00,although any attempt at long positioning needs to be driven by evidence

in the short-term that is suggestive of extended gains in the hourlydaily

timeframe at the very least. A break back under 118.85 is required to

change this longer-term bias.


Sell limit 3 at 127.35, Objs: 126.35/125.00/123.00, Stop: 128.35

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


9/15

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Hourly consolidation continues.

EUR/JPY continues to be contained by a falling daily channel. A returntowards 108.03 and then 106.61 is favoured over coming sessions.

We have seen a test of the 200 day moving average (currently at 113.73),which has thus far been met by supply, with a relapse back below the

trading range of the last few weeks reaching 108.03 so far.

Infact, while under 114.18 we continue to expect a return to 106.61initially, ahead of a return to 105.44.

We await the formation of short-term structure to assist us in tradedirection. In particular a breakout is sought from the recent consolidation

that has evolved. We look to sell higher.


Await fresh signal. Look to sell higher.

EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/JPYEUR/JPYEUR/JPYEUR/JPY


10/15

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Return towards 0.8643 favoured.

EUR/GBP has made an initial attempt at pushing under 0.8643, reaching0.8654 thus far. We view a break under 0.8643 as likely triggering a fresh

bout of weakness.

Given that the recovery from 0.8643 to 0.8886 has now been unwound,beyond the 61.8% retrace, we now see an increased probability of an

eventual break under 0.8643.

With this in mind we expect a lower high to form close to current levels,with scope then for a fresh extension lower.

We also note that a push under 0.8643 will begin to break down thepositive structure seen since 0.8285, warning of a longer-term return to

0.8068.

Failure to stay below 0.8760 will warn of a larger corrective phase higherfrom the key low at 0.8643, with potential then for a return to 0.8886

before fresh weakness.


Short 3 at 0.8720, Objs: 0.8680/0.8610/0.8500. Stop: 0.8760

EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBPEUR/GBP



11/15

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Consolidation continues.

EUR/CHF has left a possible false break lower out of a falling channel. Weawait a push over 1.1892 to confirm this formation.

We have noted on previous reports the link between movements inEUR/CHF and the yield on Eurozone periphery yields. We continue to

monitor the yields on Italian and Spanish 10 year government bonds.

Short-term structure has been consolidating over the last six trading days.A break lower would be favoured, in line with our view in USD/CHF.

However, a higher low is currently expected to form ahead of 1.0075 for a

fresh recovery leg higher.

Alternatively if price action hints at signs of exhaustion, we may betempted to trade with the larger trend and sell into what we initially expect

to be a corrective swing lower.

In the meantime, price remains confined in a tight hourly range. Strongersignals from short-term structure are awaited ahead of trade positioning.

S-T TREND L-T TREND

Possibly looking to buy lower.

EUR/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/CHF

EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP



12/15

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Gold unwinds amidst overbought signals.

Gold is unwinding once again from renewed overbought signals, havingrecently carved out its fresh record high at 1913.50. As previously stated, a

sustained confirmation above these new levels will offer extensions into the

all-important 2000.00 level. We remain long, with an aggressive trailing

stop-loss in place.

Mild unwinding in gold can also be seen against key currencies (includingFX majors; EUR, GBP, CHF and commodity-driven AUD & ZAR).

In terms of the big picture, we continue to encourage strong risk-management, as prices extend the surge above its 12-year trend-channel.

The unsustainable parabolic move also maintains a unique long-term

DeMark exhaustion signal, which coincides with an important peak cycle

on Gold.

The bearish risk for Gold is still weighed by the CMEs recent hike inmargins, which often occurs during major highs (akin to Silvers crash in

April). Watch support at 1720.00 and 1640.40. A break warns of a sharper

reversal lower through the previous psychological level at 1600.00.


LONG 3: 1869, Obj: 1920/2100/2400, Stop: 1852

GOLD

Gold daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


TRENDCHANNEL(12 YEARS)

RISKZONE

I

II

III

GOLD Weekly LOG Chart (1999-2011)

GOLD RESUMES ACROSS KEY FX RATES

GOLD in USD

GOLD in EUR

GOLD in CHF

GOLD in AUD

GOLD in ZAR

BREAKOUT!

GOLD Daily (April 2010-2011)

10 consecutiveHigher Closes

KEY LEVEL

1934-35

BIG 2000!


13/15

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Relief-rally unwinds from our target zone at 43.8480.

Silver's relief-rally is unwinding lower, in line with Gold's latest rise, aftertesting our target zone at 43.8477-80. Only a sustained close above here

will offer further gains into 45.6650, where we believe some further

unwinding may occur.

Near-term support can be found at 38.2100 (20th July low). A break herewould trigger downside risk into 34.8096 (200-dMA).

Key macro support exists at 26.9600 (50% Fib-1999 bull market) and wouldstill mean that silvers long-term uptrend remains intact.

We also continue to watch silvers relative performance against gold, whichis currently unwinding (already up 37%), from extreme oversold conditions.


Awaiting Trade Setup.

SILVER

Spot Silver daily, weekly, Bloomberg Finance LP


BULLMARKETFROM

1999

Silver Monthly (since 1980)

13

38.2%(32.3135)

50%(26.9150)

61.8%(21.5165)

Silver HITS 1980 Spike High! TD EXHAUSTIONSELL SIGNALS

OVER 30YEAR BASE

UNWINDING 37%FROMOVERSOLD TERRITORY

Gold/Silver Ratio

37%13 YEAR LEVEL

Silver

(Daily)

13

200 DMA(34.1853)

TARGET II


14/15

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Limitation of liability

MIG BANK disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind,

including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.

Material Interests

MIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have

or have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.

Copyright

All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or

distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1

unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be

moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective

(PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All

orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is

sent between reports.

No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or

recommendation, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect

any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever.

The information published and opinions expressed are provided by

MIG BANK for personal use and for informational purposes only and

are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK makes no

representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and

opinions expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In

particular, nothing contained constitutes financial, legal, tax or other

advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be made

solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a

qualified expert before making any investment decision.

All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to bereliable but they have no guarantees that this is the case. Therefore,

whilst every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate and

complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.

DISC

LAIMER

LEGALTERMS


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www.migbank.comRon WilliamTechnical [email protected]

MIG [email protected]

14, rte des Gouttes dOrCH-2008 NeuchtelTel.+41 32 722 81 00

Bjioy KarTechnical [email protected]

CONTACT

Howard FriendChief Market [email protected]
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.migbank.com/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.migbank.com/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]

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2011 08 23 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report