Upload
others
View
8
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
2006 Preliminary Results Presentation 22nd March 2007
Page 2 | 22nd March 2007
Forward looking statements
This presentation may contain forward-looking statements and information that both represents management's current expectations or beliefs concerning future events and are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties.
A number of factors could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied by
these forward-looking statements.
Page 3 | 22nd March 2007
Agenda
Results Highlights Simon Lockett
Financial Results Tony Durrant
Regional Update Robin Allan & Neil Hawkings
Look Ahead Simon Lockett
Page 4 | 22nd March 2007
Results Highlights
Page 5 | 22nd March 2007
Highlights
• Dua and Blackbird in Vietnam; Lembu Peteng, Macan Tutul and Lukah in Indonesia
• Current drilling in India & Guinea Bissau
• Operated drilling successes in Indonesia & Vietnam
• Signed MOU for gas sales in North Sumatra
• Significant progress on West Natuna gas• Resolution of partner issues on Ratna• Initiated sale process for Mauritania
• 25% increase in reserves and resources
• Tangible progress towards our medium term target of 50,000 boepd
• Further definition on development projects across all regions
• 3 acquisitions adding low cost barrels
• 270 bcf net certified gas in North Sumatra Block A
• Adding 5,000 bopd UK Scott production• New opportunities with Middle East JV
• Real progress in commercial discussions
Page 6 | 22nd March 2007
Financial highlights
• Profit after tax
• Operating cashflow
• Operating costs
• Balance sheet
Up 75% to $67.6 million (2005 - $38.6 million)
Up 102% to $244.8 million (2005 - $121.2 million)
Net cash of $40.9 million (2005 – net debt of $26.2 million)
Stable at $6.0 per barrel (2005 - $5.9 per barrel)
Page 7 | 22nd March 2007
Production and income statement
Working Interest Production (mboepd)Entitlement Interest Production (mboepd)Realised oil price ($/bbl)Realised gas price ($/mcf)
Sales and other operating revenuesCost of salesExploration/New BusinessGeneral and administration costsOperating profit Financial ItemsProfit before taxationTaxationProfit after taxLoss for the period from assets held for saleProfit for the period
Prepared in accordance with IFRS
12 months to31 Dec 2005
33.328.7
48.383.82
$m359
(176)(38)(20)126(1)
125(86)
39-
39
Highlights12 months to31 Dec 2006
33.028.9
64.905.11
$m359
(127)(37)(17)179(6)
173(87)
86(18)
68
Chinguetti revenues excluded
Favourable resolution of prior provisionsMauritania defined as asset for sale
Underlying field operating costs stable at $6.0/bbl
Close to Brent average of $65.40/bblStrong Singapore gas prices
• Maintained policy of hedging after tax barrels with average floor around $40
• Net movement in mark to market valuation over the year of $1.9 million
100.00
Dated Brent Oil($/bbl)
80.00
60.00
20.0003 04 08 10 12
40.00
05 06 07 09 11
Commodity Priceand Forward CurveAverage CapAverage Floor
Page 8 | 22nd March 2007
Cashflow
Net cash flow from operationsNet interest TaxationOperating cash flowCapital expenditurePre licence exploration costsNet share issues/(purchases)Other movementsMovement in net cash
Opening net cash/(debt)Closing net cash/(debt)
12 months to31 Dec 2005
$m
12 months to31 Dec 2006
$m
361-
(116)245
(154)(22)
1(3)67
(26)41
208-
(87)121
(133)(17)(20)
4(45)
19(26)
2006 2005
Development
Exploration 51
82Acquisitions -17
154
90
47
133
Undrawn facility of $275 million
Operating Cashflow Capex
Pakistan
North Sea 43
26West Africa 2522
245
45
91
154
Asia 6087
Estimated regional split
Page 9 | 22nd March 2007
Financial outlook
• Production expected to be 36,000-40,000 boepd for 2007
• Exploration spend will increase in 2007– Current estimate around $100m– After-tax cost will be around $70m
• Planned development spending currently estimated at $110 million
120
Exploration cash expenditure before and after taxUS Dollars (millions)
100
80
60
20
02004 2006
Gross expenditureExpenditure after tax and recoveries
2005 2007
40
Page 10 | 22nd March 2007
North Sea Strategy• Deliver material reserve additions through organic growth in Norway
• Maximise returns from current UK production assets with a focus on incremental projects
• Pursue acquisitions of additional equity in core areas
North Sea – returning to growth
25000
North Sea Production Profile(boepd)
20000
15000
10000
5000
02004 2006 2008 2009 2011
2004 Interim Results Forecast2004-6 Actuals and Current Forecast
2005 2007 2010
Page 11 | 22nd March 2007
Scott acquisition
• Pre-emption notice issued on Hess’ sale of part of Scott interest
• Premier share to increase from 1.79% to 21.83%• Additional 12.7 mmboe net to Premier for $60m• Increased 2007 production of 5,000 boepd
Page 12 | 22nd March 2007
• Premier 50% share(operator Pertra)
• Brent equivalent field abandoned by Total in 2001, awarded to Premier in 2005
• Operator’s reserves estimate is 62 mmbbl (35 to 70 mmbbls)
• Two development concepts being carried forward
– Jack-up drilling and production unit (leased)
– Subsea tie-back to Jotun• Final concept selection decision
planned for September • POD submission targeting
year end
Frøy
Page 13 | 22nd March 2007
Bream
Bream
• “Most sought after” blocks in the APA 2006 round• Undeveloped Brent equivalent oil field discovered in
1971, awarded to Premier in 2007• Awarded 40% and Operatorship of Bream Exploration
– 1 Firm well • Awarded 20% of Bream Appraisal (BG Operator)
– 1 Firm and 1 contingent well– POD submission in 2 years
• Could be developed as a tieback to the Yme field– POD was submitted in January 2007
PL407 Bream Appraisal
PL406 Bream Exploration
Yme Field Re-development
Bream
Page 14 | 22nd March 2007
2006 APA Round Awards
• Five blocks awarded
• First Operatorship for Premier Norway
• Bream discovery to be appraised
UKCS 24th Round Awards
• 1524a & 15/25f
2005 APA Round Awards
• 4 non-operated exploration licences awarded
• Working-up prospects for drilling
• Rig consortia discussions
North Sea exploration update
Page 15 | 22nd March 2007
PL359 – Merckx lead
• Paleocene sandstones laponto the edge of the Utsira High.
• Oil shows in down-dip16/4-1 well
• Risk analysis is being undertaken before deciding whether to commit to a well.
North Sea exploration update
Paleocene sandstone pinchout
Page 16 | 22nd March 2007
UK exploration - Peveril
Blocks 39/2, 39/7• Premier share 30%• Premier carried for well • 40mmbbl prospect in Fife (Upper Jurassic)
sandstones• Close to Fife infrastructure• Drilling April 2007
Peveril Prospect
Fife Field
Fergus Field
Outline ofPeveril
Prospect
Sealing Fault-locallydeveloped sands not
charged on eastern side
4 Way Dip closureat Base Cretaceous
Subcrop/Erosion/Pinchoutof Fife Sandstones defined
by subcrop of sealingTriassic Smith Bank
Formation shales against Lower Cretaceous shales
Page 17 | 22nd March 2007
Middle East & Pakistan Strategy• Grow high return Pakistan business through development and acquisition
• Replenish Pakistan exploration portfolio, focusing on High Impact acreage
• Develop relationships to access new opportunities – (EIIC Joint Venture)
Middle East & PakistanEnhancing the Pakistan gas business
20000
Pakistan Production Graph(boepd)
18000
16000
14000
12000
100002007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Page 18 | 22nd March 2007
Pakistan - Qadirpur Deep
Qadirpur• Discovered gas in a Lower
Cretaceous structure at ~4500m, with potential stratigraphic upside.
• The well has been suspended for testing later in 2007
Page 19 | 22nd March 2007
Qadirpur (4.75%)• Further plant expansion proceeding• Qadirpur Deep drilled awaiting testing
Zamzama (9.37%)• Phase 2 project progressing to plan• Additional 150 mmscfd - first gas in 2H
2007 • Potential Upside Reserves identified
Bhit/Badhra (6.0%)• GSA signed for additional sales• Additional gas targeted December 2007• Enlarging Badhra licence areaKadanwari (15.79%)• Development drilling proceeding
Pakistan – field updates
Page 20 | 22nd March 2007
Pakistan – Anne-1
Anne-1 EW• Targeting 300 mmbbl in Oligocene-Miocene sandstones
• Deep water: 1300m• Drilling June/July 2007
Page 21 | 22nd March 2007
West Africa Strategy• High Impact Exploration-led growth• Maximise value from existing discoveries• Generate a portfolio of new exploration
opportunities
West Africa – high impact exploration
Congo
Congo
Guinea Bissau
Guinea Bissau
Country
April 2007190Eirozes
285
260
70
Gross Unrisked Mean Potential (mmboe)
2008/9
2008
Drilling
Anticipated Spud
Frida
Ida
Espinafre
Prospect
Page 22 | 22nd March 2007
Mauritania update
• New well (Chinguetti-18) is now flowing
• Chinguetti-14 has been worked over• Plans progressing for Phase 2B
production wells in Q4 this year
• Tiof continues to make progress• High resolution seismic acquisition
in Q2
• Operator has started work on Banda gas commercialisation
• At 8.12% equity, unlikely to generate high impact exploration opportunities going forward
Page 23 | 22nd March 2007
Guinea Bissau
Esperanca (Block 4A and 5A) – 30.5% • Targeting cretaceous sandstones• Espinafre-1 currently drilling (70 MMBO)• Eirozes-1 to follow:190 MMBO mean, 360
MMBO upside• Block farmed-out to Delek Feb ’07 (subject to
Government ratification)
Page 24 | 22nd March 2007
North
Eirozes Prospect:mean reserves 190 million barrels
TopAlbianSand
Salt
South
Guinea Bissau high impact wells
Espinafre Prospect:mean reserves 70 million barrels
North
Salt
South
TopAlbianSand
Page 25 | 22nd March 2007
Marine IX Block (Premier 58.5%)• Significant reserve potential • 3D reprocessing and interpretation in
2007• Two large prospects – Frida and Ida• Exploration well 2008/9
Congo – Block Marine IX
Kitina150 mmbbls
Moho110 mmbbls
N’Kossa280 mmbbls
Frida Prospect
Ida Prospect
Frida Miocene Channel
Page 26 | 22nd March 2007
Frida Prospect 150 mmbo Kitina Field (Total)
Congo – Block Marine IX – Frida prospect
Page 27 | 22nd March 2007
Congo – Block Marine IX – Frida and Ida prospects
Frida Structure
Ida Structure
Page 28 | 22nd March 2007
Asia Strategy• Fully exploit the West Natuna potential
• Build a new core area in North Sumatra
• Develop the Nam Con Son Basin
• Access further high impact exploration
• Build on selected E&P projects in India
Asia – Building on our Natuna Sea position
Page 29 | 22nd March 2007
Asia success
Vietnam Block 12 37.5% - Duaand Blackbird discoveries
Tuna licence award - 65%
Vietnam Block 7&8/97 – optionexercised for 45% interest
Kakap 18.75% - Lukah discovery
Natuna SeaBlock A 28.67% - Macan Tutul-1,
Lembu Peteng-1, discoveries
North SumatraBlock A – acquisition
of 41.67% interest
Significant progress onWest Natuna gas sales
Buton licenceaward - 30%
Page 30 | 22nd March 2007
India – Ratna
• All partners are now in agreement and ready to sign the PSC and the associated documentation
• Being progressed through the ministries concerned• Premier’s reserves estimate is around 80 mmstb but
further upside exists• Premier is Operator with a 10% carried interest
Page 31 | 22nd March 2007
India – Cachar Block
Cachar, 14.5% (Operator)• Masimpur-3 (2 Tcf), spudded 21 Jan 2007• Hailakandi-1 & Kanchanpur-1 follow-up
wells, each with high potential
Hailakandi Prospect
Kanchanpur Prospect
MasimpurProspect
Page 32 | 22nd March 2007
Masimpur-3 drilling curve
Seismic line POC-03-12
Masimpur Anticline
• The Masimpur structure has defeated previous attempts to drill the Renjiformation target
• The rig is located off the crest, and the well is being drilled directionally to avoid high pressures seen in earlier wells
Page 33 | 22nd March 2007
North Sumatra Block A
• Acquired 41.67% in two acquisitions from ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips at a cost of $53m
• Medco have now assumed Operatorship
• Initial focus will be the development of the Alur Siwahgas field
• Followed by exploration activities and re-development studies on old oil fields
Page 34 | 22nd March 2007
Alur Siwah Development
• Initial gas development of three fields to an already built local fertiliser plant.
– D& M 2P certified gas reserves– Alur Siwah – 556 bcf– Alur Rambong – 76 bcf– Julu Rayeu – 34 bcf
• Outline Development– 120 mmscf/d offtake rate (including
20% CO2)– New gas processing facility– First production in 2010
• Gas sales MOU recently signed
Alur Siwah – 9 Well
Page 35 | 22nd March 2007
• Gas from Alur Siwah to be sold to fertiliser plants
• The Bata Raya Field could be developed either into the Arun LNG Plant or the Fertiliser plant
• Further gas to be discovered through exploration and quickly developed
• The old oil fields to be redeveloped with horizontal drilling technology
• The giant Kuala Langsa Field Gas to be developed and gas sold to the Arun LNG plant
• The reject CO2 stream could be used for EOR in the old oil fields
North Sumatra Block A – long term vision
Page 36 | 22nd March 2007
West Natuna Block A – Gas Sales Update
• Gas sales planned under two contracts
– Singapore petrochemical complex• ExxonMobil and other end users• HSFO indexed price
– Domestic power generation• Sale to PLN for Batam• Domestic pricing
• First gas in 2010 – Possibility of some supplies in
2009
Page 37 | 22nd March 2007
West Natuna – long term vision
Page 38 | 22nd March 2007
West Natuna drilling programme – 2007
Lembu Peteng-2 (Appraisal)
Ibu Lembu
Pancing
Kakak Lembu
Gajah Sumatera
2 development wells
Tenggiling
Tupai
Contingent Wells
Firm Wells
Page 39 | 22nd March 2007
Ibu Lembu-1
Lembu Trend• A new oil and gas trend within tie-
back distance to existing infrastructure
Lembu Peteng-1
Lembu Peteng discovery
West Natuna – Lembu trend
Page 40 | 22nd March 2007
Gajah Puteri-2
Gajah Sumatera-1
plus ST
Gajah Puteri-1
West Natuna - Gajah Sumatera Prospect
Gajah Sumatera
Gajah Sumatera• Potential extension to the Gajah
Puteri Field
Page 41 | 22nd March 2007
Buton 30%• Awarded 28 February 2007• Operator Japex• 2007 WP:
– Environmental Impact Assessment– Geological Field Survey– 265km 2D seismic (late ‘07)– Exploration well 2009
Buton Block
Indonesia licence award – Buton (Sulawesi)
Page 42 | 22nd March 2007
Large anticlines are seen at surface; there are likely to be structural traps at depth
U D
Oil seeps
Buton: Lead C Satellite Interpretation
Lead C Anticline
Tp-Q
Tp-Q
Sampolakosa-1S
Page 43 | 22nd March 2007
Natuna Sea – Tuna Block
Seismic Line showing Direct Hydrocarbon Indicators
Tuna Block Leads
Tuna 65%, Operator• Awarded 2 March 2007 (3 yrs)• Adjacent to Vietnam Block 7 & 8/97 • On trend with Dua and Blackbird
discoveries• Potential 40-100 MMBO prospects
Page 44 | 22nd March 2007
Vietnam Block 12 – discoveries and prospects
BlackbirdSuccessful exploration, 3D April 2007
FalconFollow-up to Blackbird
Dua FieldSuccessfully appraised
JayNear field exploration to Dua
QuitBig structure
Page 45 | 22nd March 2007
Vietnam Block 12 - Discoveries and Prospects
10 km
Falcon Blackbird
Quit
Dua
Peacock
Base Tertiary Depth Map
Page 46 | 22nd March 2007
Dua / Blackbird update
• Reservoir and Facilities Development studies are underway • 3D seismic on Blackbird in 2Q 2007 to reduce volumetric uncertainty• Concept selection scheduled for Q3 - Project sanction in Q2 2008• Likely to be an FPSO• Two wellhead platforms• Jack-up drilling rig• First production in 2010• 80 mmbbl of oil reserves• Gas options under review
Page 47 | 22nd March 2007
Block 12 – Falcon prospect
Falcon – Top Middle DuaSands Depth Structure
Top ThongTop Intra Middle DuaTop MD1Near Top MD5Top MD6Top Cau
A
A’
A’
Falcon
Falcon A
Falcon Prospect – max closingContour 2990mSS
Falcon Prospect• 2007: 3D seismic programme• Exploration well in 2007/8
Page 48 | 22nd March 2007
Peacock Prospect Top Middle Dua Sands
Depth Map
Peacock Prospect• 2007: 3D seismic programme• Exploration well in 2008
Peacock
Peacock Prospect
Peacock Prospect
Vietnam Block 12 – Peacock prospect
Page 49 | 22nd March 2007
Vietnam – Blocks 7 & 8/97
Block 7 & 8/97Premier 45%
• Force Majeure lifted in November 2006
• Adjacent to Block 12 (success in 2006) and newly awarded Tuna Block in Indonesia
• Numerous prospects and leads identified on seismic
• First well to be drilled in 2008/9
Page 50 | 22nd March 2007
Vietnam – Blocks 7 & 8/97
EW
Blue Marlin Prospect
Page 51 | 22nd March 2007
Red Grouper Prospect
Block 7 & 8/97 – Red Grouper Prospect
Page 52 | 22nd March 2007
Vietnam Block 12 – long term vision
• Repeat the successful model from West Natuna Block A
• Start with an FPSO based oil development
• Follow up with gas offtakethrough a shared pipeline to power generation
• Continue to integrate exploration successes
• Potential synergies with Block 7 & 8/97 and Tuna Block in Indonesia
Page 53 | 22nd March 2007
Corporate Strategy• Deliver value through a growth focused
independent upstream E&P business• Production growth through
development projects• Focused high impact exploration• Pursuit of acquisitions which are
complementary to existing assets and knowledge base
Medium Term Targets• Targeting production growth to
50,000 bopd• 4 high impact wells per annum within
disciplined spend
Corporate strategy
Page 54 | 22nd March 2007
Reserve additions
• West Natuna• North Sumatra
Block A• Blackbird/Dua• Frøy• Pakistan
100
Reserves/Resources(mmboe)
Opening Production Resourceadditions
Proforma0
50
200
150
250
Closing
300
350Resources movementBooked reserves movementResourcesBooked reserves
232
302
Scott
165164152
289
Page 55 | 22nd March 2007
Development schedule
WNBA GSA-2
Ratna
Blackbird / Dua
NSBA–Alur Siwah
Frøy
Pakistan
2007 2008 2009 2010
ProjectInitiation
ConceptSelection
ProjectSanction
FirstProduction
Study Design ExecuteOperated
Non-operated
Page 56 | 22nd March 2007
5 Year production
Production Profile(boepd)
2006
60000
0
80000
2007 2008 2009 2011
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
(NB: Only includes discovered hydrocarbons (no exploration success assumed or acquisitions))
New projectsBooked reserves
70000
2010
Production Profile by Region(boepd)
2006
60000
0
80000
2007 2008 2009 2011
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
70000
West AfricaAsiaM/East & PakistanNorth Sea
2010
Page 57 | 22nd March 2007
Development capex
Future Field Capex by Region($ million)
0
300
250
200
150
100
50
West AfricaAsiaM. East & PakistanNorth Sea
Future Field Capex($ million)
0
300
250
200
150
100
50
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
New projectsBooked reserves
Page 58 | 22nd March 2007
Exploration – the next 12 months
Contingent wells
North SeaUK : 39/7 Peveril
M/East & PakistanEgypt : NW Gemsa Gemsa WellPakistan : Indus Anne-1
West AfricaGuinea Bissau : Esperanca Espinafre-1
Eirozes-1Gabon : Themis Themis-1
AsiaIndonesia : Natuna A PSC Ibu Lembu-1
Gajah Sumatera-2Lembu Peteng-2TenggilingKakak Lembu-1
Kakap Pancing-1Vietnam : 12E & 12W Falcon-1 Philippines : Ragay Gulf Monte CristoIndia : Cachar Masimpur-3
Hailakandi-1Kanchanpur-1
JUN JUL AUG SEPAPR MAY OCT NOV DEC FEB2007MAR
High impact wellsFirm wells
2008JAN
Timing depends on rig availability
Page 59 | 22nd March 2007
12 months ahead
• Progress development sanctions
• High impact exploration in Guinea Bissau, India, UK, Pakistan
• Focus exploration efforts on 2008/9; Vietnam, Congo and follow-ups
• Complementary acquisitions to existing Businesses
Page 60 | 22nd March 2007www.premier-oil.com 22nd March 2007