Oil & Gas Preliminary Sample Analysis

March 30, 2006

Background Information• TXU ED provided a list of ESI IDs with SIC codes indicating Oil & Gas (8,583)

• These were mapped into LRS sample cells– 421 LRS sample points were identified as Oil & Gas– 15 LRS sample cells identified with significant population counts having no sample

points available– Requestor agreed to fund IDR installation/data collection for ERCOT selected

sample points in those cells (data collected for March – May 2005)

• TXU ED performed field verification on all Oil & Gas sample points

• 7,342 ESI IDs were included in this preliminary analysis covering the March – May time period

• ESI IDs included in analysis based on– Active during the analysis period– Complete NIDR usage available– Profile Group was BUSNODEM, BUSLOLF, BUSMEDLF, BUSHILF– Belong to a cell with LRS interval data available for one or more ESI IDs

• Sample data was scanned to verify that usage patterns were likely to be Oil & Gas (none were considered miss-classified)

Oil & Gas Sample Size by Stratum

Population Size: 7,342

Sample Size: 412

Strata: 76 out of 104

Profile Group

Wzone VoltageStratum

#Sample

SizePopulation

SizeProfile Group Wzone Voltage

Stratum #

Sample Size

Population Size

BUSHILF EAST PRI 1 3 4 BUSMEDLF EAST PRI 55 1 1BUSHILF EAST SEC 2 1 23 BUSMEDLF EAST SEC 56 1 21BUSHILF FWEST PRI 4 44 728 BUSMEDLF FWEST PRI 59 65 914BUSHILF FWEST PRI 5 6 143 BUSMEDLF FWEST PRI 60 18 206BUSHILF FWEST PRI 6 4 46 BUSMEDLF FWEST PRI 61 13 55BUSHILF FWEST SEC 7 1 86 BUSMEDLF FWEST PRI 62 2 2BUSHILF FWEST SEC 8 2 9 BUSMEDLF FWEST SEC 63 2 326BUSHILF NCENT PRI 9 3 53 BUSMEDLF FWEST SEC 64 1 8BUSHILF NCENT SEC 11 1 66 BUSMEDLF FWEST SEC 65 1 3BUSHILF NORTH PRI 13 9 141 BUSMEDLF NCENT PRI 66 9 55BUSHILF NORTH PRI 14 6 39 BUSMEDLF NCENT SEC 67 1 172BUSHILF NORTH PRI 15 5 8 BUSMEDLF NORTH PRI 69 6 113BUSHILF NORTH SEC 16 1 119 BUSMEDLF NORTH PRI 70 8 28BUSHILF WEST PRI 19 3 53 BUSMEDLF NORTH PRI 71 2 7BUSHILF WEST PRI 20 4 11 BUSMEDLF NORTH PRI 72 3 3BUSHILF WEST PRI 21 4 4 BUSMEDLF NORTH SEC 73 1 93BUSHILF WEST PRI 22 2 2 BUSMEDLF WEST PRI 77 6 81BUSHILF WEST SEC 23 1 8 BUSMEDLF WEST PRI 78 5 18

BUSMEDLF WEST PRI 79 4 7BUSLOLF EAST PRI 24 2 2 BUSMEDLF WEST PRI 80 2 3BUSLOLF EAST SEC 25 1 33 BUSMEDLF WEST SEC 81 1 22BUSLOLF FWEST PRI 28 43 653BUSLOLF FWEST PRI 29 15 172 BUSNODEM EAST SEC 83 1 76BUSLOLF FWEST PRI 30 15 52 BUSNODEM FWEST PRI 86 10 10BUSLOLF FWEST PRI 31 2 2 BUSNODEM FWEST SEC 87 1 201BUSLOLF FWEST SEC 32 1 140 BUSNODEM FWEST SEC 88 1 86BUSLOLF FWEST SEC 33 1 31 BUSNODEM FWEST SEC 89 2 83BUSLOLF NCENT PRI 35 5 28 BUSNODEM NCENT PRI 90 1 1BUSLOLF NCENT SEC 37 1 92 BUSNODEM NCENT SEC 91 3 741BUSLOLF NORTH PRI 40 7 71 BUSNODEM NCENT SEC 92 1 185BUSLOLF NORTH PRI 41 5 21 BUSNODEM NCENT SEC 93 2 174BUSLOLF NORTH PRI 42 4 7 BUSNODEM NORTH PRI 94 4 4BUSLOLF NORTH PRI 43 2 2 BUSNODEM NORTH SEC 95 1 196BUSLOLF NORTH SEC 44 1 87 BUSNODEM NORTH SEC 96 1 130BUSLOLF WEST PRI 48 7 35 BUSNODEM NORTH SEC 97 1 146BUSLOLF WEST PRI 49 6 20 BUSNODEM SCENT SEC 98 1 61BUSLOLF WEST PRI 50 5 9 BUSNODEM WEST PRI 101 1 1BUSLOLF WEST PRI 51 3 3 BUSNODEM WEST SEC 102 1 55

BUSNODEM WEST SEC 103 1 28BUSNODEM WEST SEC 104 1 23

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.20

0.22

0.24

0.26

Mar 01 Mar 08 Mar 15 Mar 22 Mar 29 Apr 05 Apr 12 Apr 19 Apr 26 May 03 May 10 May 17 May 24 May 31

Unknow n

Local Time

M arch - June

Example: BUSNODEM ESI ID March 1 – May 31

kWh

Example: BUSNODEM ESI ID March 1 – May 31

Example: BUSLOLF ESI ID March 1 – May 31

Example: BUSLOLF ESI ID March 1 – May 31

kWh

kWh

Example: BUSLOLF ESI ID March 1 – May 31

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

Mar 01 Mar 08 Mar 15 Mar 22 Mar 29 Apr 05 Apr 12 Apr 19 Apr 26 May 03 May 10 May 17 May 24 May 31

Unknow n

Local Time

M arch - June

kWh

Example: BUSMEDLF ESI ID March 1 – May 31

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Mar 01 Mar 08 Mar 15 Mar 22 Mar 29 Apr 05 Apr 12 Apr 19 Apr 26 May 03 May 10 May 17 May 24 May 31

Unknow n

Local Time

M arch - June

kWh

Example: BUSMEDLF ESI ID March 1 – May 31

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

Mar 01 Mar 08 Mar 15 Mar 22 Mar 29 Apr 05 Apr 12 Apr 19 Apr 26 May 03 May 10 May 17 May 24 May 31

Unknow n

Local Time

M arch - June

kWh

Example: BUSMEDLF ESI ID March 1 – May 31

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

Mar 01 Mar 08 Mar 15 Mar 22 Mar 29 Apr 05 Apr 12 Apr 19 Apr 26 May 03 May 10 May 17 May 24 May 31

Unknow n

Local Time

M arch - June

kWh

Example: BUSHILF ESI ID March 1 – May 31

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Mar 01 Mar 08 Mar 15 Mar 22 Mar 29 Apr 05 Apr 12 Apr 19 Apr 26 May 03 May 10 May 17 May 24 May 31

Unknow n

Local Time

M arch - June

kWh

Example: BUSHILF ESI ID March 1 – May 31

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

Mar 01 Mar 08 Mar 15 Mar 22 Mar 29 Apr 05 Apr 12 Apr 19 Apr 26 May 03 May 10 May 17 May 24 May 31

Unknow n

Local Time

M arch - June

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

Tue 01 Wed 02 Thu 03 Fri 04 Sat 05 Sun 06 Mon 07 Tue 08

Unknow n

Local Time

M arch 2005

kWh

kWh

Sum of Oil & Gas Sample Points (Unweighted)March 2005

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

3/1/2005 3/7/2005 3/13/2005 3/19/2005 3/25/2005 3/31/2005

Sam

ple

kW

H

LRS Sample Total

Sum of Oil & Gas Sample Points (Unweighted) vs

Oil & Gas Population Profiled Mean March 2005

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

3/1/2005 3/7/2005 3/13/2005 3/19/2005 3/25/2005 3/31/2005

Sam

ple

kW

H

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Pro

file

d k

Wh

LRS Sample Total Population Profiled Mean

Sum of Oil & Gas Sample Points (Unweighted) vs

Oil & Gas Population Profiled Mean April 2005

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4/1/2005 4/6/2005 4/12/2005 4/18/2005 4/24/2005

Sam

ple

kW

H

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Pro

file

d k

Wh

LRS Sample Total Population Profiled Mean

Sum of Oil & Gas Sample Points (Unweighted) vs

Oil & Gas Population Profiled Mean May 2005

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

5/1/2005 5/7/2005 5/13/2005 5/19/2005 5/25/2005 5/31/2005

Sam

ple

kW

H

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Pro

file

d k

Wh

LRS Sample Total Population Profiled Mean

Oil & Gas Sample Point Sum (Unweighted) vs

Oil & Gas Population Profiled Average Days

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

LRS Sample Total Population Profiled Mean

kWh kWh

Sum of Oil & Gas Sample Points (Unweighted)Daily kWh for March 2005

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Sum of Oil & Gas Sample Points (Unweighted)Daily Load Factor for March 2005

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

Sum of Oil & Gas Sample Points (Unweighted)Daily kWh for April 2005

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Sum of Oil & Gas Sample Points (Unweighted)Daily Load Factor for April 2005

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

Sum of Oil & Gas Sample Points (Unweighted)Daily kWh for May 2005

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Sum of Oil & Gas Sample Points (Unweighted)Daily Load Factor for May2005

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

Next Steps

• Load Research sample extrapolation for the 12-month period (Nov 1, 2004 – Oct 31, 2005)

• Quantify load and load-weighted-average price differences from existing Load Profiles

• Evaluate lack of weather sensitivity … would lead to one profile model for all weather zones

• Evaluate homogeneity across the sample points in terms of load-weighted-average price

• Submit ERCOT report and recommendation regarding approval to PWG (April 2006)