2001 Water and Watersheds Progress Review | US EPA ARCHIVE ... · Richard C. Lathrop, Kenneth W. Potter, Jean M. Bahr, Kenneth R. Bradbury, Steven R. Greb, James A. LaGro, Jr., Edward

2001 EPA STAR/NSF/USDA Water and Watersheds Progress Review

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Table of Contents

Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii

Section 1. Projects Initiated With Fiscal Year 1999/2000 Support

The Impact of Lawn Care Practices on Aquatic Ecosystems in Suburban Watersheds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3Kevin L. Armbrust, Larry Shuman, Judith Meyer, Marsha Black, Raymond Noblet, Andrew Keeler, Ted Gragson, James B. Williams, Dee West

PULSES—The Importance of Pulsed Physical Events for Watershed Sustainability in Coastal Louisiana . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4John Day, Jaye Cable, Dubravko Justic, Brian Fry, Paul Kemp, Enrique Reyes, Paul Templet, Robert Twilley

Linking Environmental and Social Performance Measurement for Management at National and Watershed Levels: Modeling and Statistical Approaches . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6Scott Farrow, Mitchell Small, Tim Bondelid, Andrew Solow, George Van Houtven, James Sinnott, Martin Schultz

Alternative Urbanization Scenarios for an Agricultural Watershed: Design Criteria, Social Constraints, and Effects on Groundwater and Surface Water Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8Richard C. Lathrop, Kenneth W. Potter, Jean M. Bahr, Kenneth R. Bradbury, Steven R. Greb, James A. LaGro, Jr., Edward B. Nelson, Peter Nowak, Joy B. Zedler

An Integrated GIS Framework for Water Reallocation and Decisionmaking in the Upper Rio Grande Basin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10Olen Paul Matthews, David Brookshire

The Spatial Pattern of Land Use Conversion: Linking Economics, Hydrology, and Ecology To Evaluate the Effects of Alternative Future Growth Scenarios on Stream Ecosystems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11Margaret A. Palmer, Nancy E. Bockstael,Glenn E. Moglen, N. LeRoy Poff, James E. Pizzuto, Cameron Wiegand, Keith Van Ness

Integrating Coral Reef Ecosystem Integrity and Restoration Options With Watershed-Based Activities in the Tropical Pacific Islands and the Societal Costs of Poor Land-Use Practices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13Robert H. Richmond, Michael Hamnett, Eric Wolanski

Identification and Control of Nonpoint Sources of Microbial Pollution in a Coastal Watershed . . . . . . . . . . 15Brett Sanders, Stanley Grant, Alex Horne, Robin Keller, Mark Sobsey

Strategic Renewal of Large Floodplain Rivers: Integrated Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16Richard E. Sparks, Deborah Beal, John B. Braden, Misganaw Demissie, Andrew M. Isserman,Douglas M. Johnston, Jungik Kim, Yanqing Lian, Da-Mi Maeng, Zorica Nedovic-Budic, Daniel Schneider, Diane M. Timlin, David C. White

Watershed-Scale Assessments of E. coli Contamination Implications of Source Identification for Public Policy Debate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17Ronald Turco, S. Brouder, C. Nakatsu, A. Bhunia, J. Frankenberger, J. Harbor, G. Thomas


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Table of Contents (continued)

An Acre an Hour: Documenting the Effects of Urban Sprawl in a Model Watershed Near Philadelphia, Pennsylvania . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18Claire Welty, Susan S. Kilham, Aaron I. Packman, Robert J. Brulle

Section 2. Projects Initiated With Fiscal Year 1998 Support

Development and Testing of a Decision Support System for River Rehabilitation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21J. David Allan, Gloria Helfand, Joan Nassauer

An Integrated Systems Approach to Watershed Restoration With Community Involvement Applied to a Small Rural Watershed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22J. Boll, J.D. Wulfhorst, S. Chen, C.O. Stockle, D.K. McCool, D.C. Brown, D. Feichtinger, A.J. Vitale

Integrating Ecological, Economic, and Social Goals in Restoration Decisionmaking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24John Bolte

Social Impact Assessment of Human Exposure to Mercury Related to Land Use and Physicochemical Settings in the Mobile-Alabama River Basin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25Jean Claude Bonzongo, Eric E. Roden, Milton G. Ward, C. Hobson Bryan, W.B. Lyons, Indrajeet Chaubey

Applying the Patuxent and Gwynns Falls Landscape Models To Designing a Sustainable Balance Between Humans and the Rest of Nature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27Robert Costanza, Alexey Voinov, Roelof Boumans, Tom Maxwell, Ferdinando Villa, Helena Voinov, Joshua Farley

Understanding the Social Context for Ecological Restoration in Multiple-Ownership Watersheds: The Case of the Cache River in Illinois . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28Steven Kraft, Christopher Lant, Jeffrey Beaulieu, Leslie Duram, J.B. Ruhl, David Bennett, Jane Adams, John Nicklow, Tim Loftus

Restoring and Maintaining Riparian Ecosystem Integrity in Arid Watersheds: Meeting the Challenge Through Science and Policy Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30Thomas Maddock, III, Kathryn Baird, Victor Baker, Bonnie Colby, Robert Glennon, Julie Stromberg

Development of an Urban Watershed Rehabilitation Method Using Stakeholder Feedback To Direct Investigation and Restoration Planning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31Marty D. Matlock, Charles D. Samuelson, William H. Neill, Tarla Rai Peterson, Ann L. Kenimer, Guy D. Whitten

Combining Economic and Ecological Indicators To Prioritize Wetlands Restoration Projects Within a Spatial GIS Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32James J. Opaluch, Marisa J. Mazzotta, Peter August, Robert Johnston, Frank Golet

Integrating Science and Technology To Support Stream Naturalization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33Bruce L. Rhoads, David Wilson, Edwin E. Herricks, Marcelo Garcia, Rebecca Wade


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Selection of Wetland Restoration Sites in Rural Watersheds To Improve Water Quality: Integrating Ecological and Economic Approaches . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34Curtis J. Richardson, Randall A. Kramer, Neal E. Flanagan

When Do Stakeholder Negotiations Work? A Multiple Lens Analysis of Watershed Restorations in California and Washington . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35Paul Sabatier, William Leach, Neil Pelkey

Integrating Models of Citizens’ Perceptions, Metal Contaminants, and Wetlands Restoration in an Urbanizing Watershed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36Robert K. Tucker, George S. Hawkins, Peter R. Jaffe, Kerry Kirk Pflugh, Branden B. Johnson

Changes in River-Land Uses and Management: Implications for Salmonid Habitat Restoration in the Lower Cedar River, Washington . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38Robert C. Wissmar, Thomas M. Leschine, Ray Timm, David Fluharty, John Small

Section 3. Projects Initiated With Fiscal Year 1997 Support

Community Values and the Long-Term Ecological Integrity of Rapidly Urbanizing Watersheds . . . . . . . . . 41M. Bruce Beck, A.K. Parker, T.C. Rasmussen, B.C. Patten, K.G. Porter, B.G. Norton, A. Steinemann

Connecting Ecological and Social Systems: Watershed Research Relating Ecosystem Structure and Function to Human Values and Socioeconomic Behaviors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43Gaboury Benoit, S. Kellert, M. Ashton, P. Barten, L. Bennett, D. Skelly, S. Anisfeld

Social and Ecological Transferability of Integrated Ecological Assessment Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45Linda A. Deegan, James Kremer, Thomas Webler

From Landscapes to Waterscapes: An Integrating Framework for Urbanizing Watersheds . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47P. Diplas, E.F. Benfield, D.J. Bosch, W.E. Cox, R. Dymond, D.F. Kibler, V.K. Lohani, S. Mostaghimi, P.S. Nagarkatti, D.J. Orth, L.A. Shabman, K. Stephenson

Conversion of Science Into Management Decisions at Lake Tahoe (CA-NV) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48Charles R. Goldman, John E. Reuter, S. Geoff Schladow, Alan Jassby, M. Levant Kavvas, Alan C. Heyvaert, Theodore J. Swift, Jennifer E. Coker

An Integrated Ecological and Socioeconomic Approach To Evaluating and Reducing Agricultural Impacts on Upper Mississippi River Watersheds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50Prasanna H. Gowda, Roger J. Haro, Ted L. Napier

Nutrient Sources, Transformations, and Budgets at the Watershed Scale in Ipswich River, Massachusetts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51Charles S. Hopkinson, E. Rastetter, J.V. Vallino, M. Williams, R.G. Pontius

Linking Watershed-Scale Indicators of Changes in Atmospheric Depositionto Regional Response Patterns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52J. Kahl, I. Fernandez, J. Rubin, J. Cosby, S. Norton, L. Rustad, D. Mageean, P. Ludwig


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REKA, a New Comprehensive Watershed Management System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54C. Gregory Knight, Jeffrey J. Carmichael, Heejun Chang, Dimitar Dimitrov, Barry M. Evans, James M. Hamlett, Todor N. Hristov, Vania D. Ioncheva, Ivan I. Nikolov, Marieta P. Staneva, Petko S. Varbanov

Coping With Nature: Accepting Risk, Adopting Technology, and Assuming Ignorance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56James McManus, Courtland L. Smith, Jesse Ford, Paul D. Komar, Debbie Colbert, Michael Styllas

Ecological Risks, Stakeholder Values, and River Basins: Testing Management Alternatives for the Illinois River . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57Mark Meo, Baxter Vieux, Blake Pettus, Edward Sankowski, Robert Lynch, Will Focht, Keith Willett, Lowell Caneday

Balancing Risks of Flood Control and Ecological Preservation in Urban Watersheds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59Vladimir Novotny, D. Clark, R. Griffin, A. Bartošová, D. Booth

Impact of Social Systems on Ecology and Hydrology in Urban-Rural Watersheds: Integration for Restoration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60Steward T.A. Pickett, J.M. Grove, L.W. Band, K.T. Belt, G.S. Brush, W.R. Burch, Jr., M.L. Cadenasso, J.M. Carrera, G.T. Fisher, P.M. Groffman, R.V. Pouyat, W.C. Zipperer

Index of Authors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61


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Introduction

The Environmental Protection Agency/National Science Foundation/United States Department of Agriculture(EPA/NSF/USDA) Water and Watersheds competition is one of four special extramural awards competitionssupported by the EPA and the NSF under a partnership for environmental research initiated in 1994. USDA begansponsorship of the program during the 1998 competition.

The Water and Watersheds competition emphasizes interdisciplinary research that adopts a systems approach towater and watershed issues. The goals are to: (1) develop an improved understanding of the natural and anthro-pogenic processes that govern the quantity, quality, and availability of water resources in natural and human-dominated systems; and (2) improve the understanding of the structure, function, and dynamics of terrestrial andaquatic ecosystems within watersheds.

The 1995 Water and Watersheds competition reviewed 656 proposals and made 36 awards. In 1996, the focus wasnarrowed to truly interdisciplinary research, and as a result, the 1996 competition reviewed 249 proposals andmade 12 awards. The announcement was narrowed further in 1997, primarily in response to concerns about thecompetition’s low rate of proposal success. Proposals were required to integrate physical, ecological, and socialscience research. For the first time, investigators were encouraged to adopt a community-based approach. The 1997competition, with an emphasis on urban/suburban research, reviewed 128 proposals and made 13 awards. In 1998,the topical emphasis shifted to watershed restoration, a total of 125 proposals were reviewed, and 14 awards weremade. In 1999/2000, an additional 12 grants were funded.

The abstracts in this volume are organized alphabetically within three sections that correspond to the year of awardand reflect all active grants. The most recent awards (FY 1999/2000) appear in the first section. These projectshave only 1 year of research to report, and consequently, these abstracts indicate goals and plans rather than results.The FY 98 cohort of projects appears next. These abstracts report early findings and describe plans for future years.The projects that were initiated with FY 97 support are in the third section and will report results based on severalyears of research.

Progress reviews, such as this one, will allow investigators to interact with one another and to discuss progress andfindings with program officers and other federal officials interested in the program.

Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this report are those of the investigatorswho participated in the research and in the Progress Review meeting, and are not necessarily those of the EPA,the NSF, or the USDA. For further information on the EPA/NSF/USDA Water and Watersheds competition, pleasecontact the Program Coordinators: Ms. Barbara Levinson, EPA, [email protected]; Dr. Douglas James,NSF, [email protected]; and Dr. Michael O’Neill, USDA, [email protected].

Section 1.

Projects Initiated With Fiscal Year 1999/2000 Support


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The Impact of Lawn Care Practices on Aquatic Ecosystems in Suburban WatershedsKevin L. Armbrust 1, Larry Shuman 1, Judith Meyer 2, Marsha Black 3, Raymond Noblet 4, Andrew Keeler 5, Ted Gragson 6, James B. Williams 7, and Dee West 8

1Department of Crop and Soil Science, University of Georgia, Griffin, GA; 2Institute of Ecology, 3Departmentof Environmental Health Sciences, 4Department of Entomology, 5Department of Agricultural Economics,6Department of Anthropology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA; 7Peachtree City Developmental Services,Peachtree City, GA; 8Alpharetta Environmental Services, Alpharetta, GA

The working hypothesis of this project is thathomeowner beliefs, values, and socioeconomic sta-tus will determine loads and ecological impacts ofturf-care chemicals (pesticides and nutrients) in aquaticecosystems in suburbanized watersheds. The objec-tives of this research project are to: (1) measure theloading to streams and temporal trends in concen-trations of turf-care products and biological indica-tors of stream ecosystem health in creeks receivingstormwater drainage from residential neighborhoodswith different socioeconomic statuses; and (2) com-pare the cultural models of lawn and lawn care heldby “experts” and “homeowners” to determine theirpoints of commonality and divergence, and establishthe nature of variation.

This investigation integrates the physical, eco-logical, and social sciences to understand the impactsof residential lawn care chemicals on aquatic eco-systems at six locations in Metropolitan Atlanta aswell as at two locations on a golf course. A team ofuniversity researchers and community-based streammonitoring programs will monitor pesticide and nutri-ent loads leaving residential neighborhoods and resi-due levels in receiving water and sediment of streams(physical/chemical); monitor aquatic organism pop-ulations and multiple biological indices in thesestreams to determine the impact of lawn care prac-tices (ecological); and work with selected homeown-ers in these neighborhoods to understand their gen-eral beliefs and values of lawns and the lawn carepractices they display to assess the impact “expert”groups have in forming these beliefs (social).

Confirmatory laboratory investigations of bio-logical effects from individual and multiple stressorswill provide added confidence that observed in-stream toxicity can be tracked to a particular chemi-cal or chemicals. The results of this research will becommunicated to interested citizens via research ex-hibits and educational materials produced by com-munity-based environmental protection programs.

During the past summer, the State of Georgiahas experienced one of its worst droughts on record,and extreme water restrictions were placed on the ir-rigation of both golf courses and residential lawns.However, water and sediment samples collected on amonthly basis since July have contained detectableresidues of pesticides and pesticide degradation pro-ducts associated with landscaping as well as nutri-ents at all sites. Effects thus far observed in leaf packdecay rates and mussel biological indices have notbeen found to be different between creeks drainingsuburban areas and reference creeks.

Laboratory testing has indicated that certain in-secticides detected in the streams were more toxic toblack fly larvae and to mussels in mixtures thanwhen added individually. Preliminary data from sur-veys of homeowners have shown that the demogra-phics of the study location are typical of most othercommunities of similar sizes in the Metropolitan At-lanta area.

Due to drought conditions there were few rain-storms, generating virtually no runoff events duringthe periods of highest lawn care chemical use, whichis atypical of what would occur in a normal year.The levels of the pesticides and nutrients detectedwere below any level of concern, and no significanteffects were observed in any organism. Most impactsto leaf-degrading fungi in different streams were at-tributed to leaf pack burial by sediment.

Monthly sampling of water for pesticides andnutrients and sediment for pesticides and metals willcontinue during the coming year, as will additionalfield monitoring experiments with mussels, aquaticinsects, and leaf packs. Additionally, storm eventsampling will occur, and more detailed surveys ofindividual homeowner lawn care practices will beconducted. Select homeowners will be keeping lawncare diaries, and followup surveys will be conductedto assess homeowner lawn care attitudes and prac-tices.


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PULSES—The Importance of Pulsed Physical Events for Watershed Sustainability in Coastal LouisianaJohn Day 1, Jaye Cable 1, Dubravko Justic 1, Brian Fry 1, Paul Kemp 2, Enrique Reyes 1, Paul Templet 3, and Robert Twilley 4

1Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences, 2Center for Coastal, Energy, and EnvironmentalResources, 3Institute for Environmental Studies, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA; 4Department ofBiology, University of Louisiana, Lafayette, LA

Riverine inputs to coastal wetlands, floodplains,and marshes are important to long-term ecological pro-ductivity and development of watershed resources. Inmany cases, levees and dams constructed during thepast 100 years have effectively isolated rivers fromtheir natural connections to adjacent floodplain anddeltaic wetlands. To help revitalize these productivesystems, the ecological restoration of historical river-floodplain connections is being attempted.

The PULSES Project focuses on evaluating theeffects of pulsed river inputs in one such coastal wa-tershed, the Breton Sound Watershed, just south ofNew Orleans. In this area, Mississippi River water isintroduced through gated river diversion structures atthe head of the estuary at Caernarvon, LA. Diversionshave been ongoing for a decade (since 1991) at Caer-narvon, but have received little scientific attention andstudy.

The physical science objectives of this researchproject are to evaluate marsh accretionary responses totwo different levels of river pulsing, 1x (14 m3/s) and13–16x (184–227 m3/s). The diversions will be exper-imentally conducted in 2-week episodes within thewinter/spring operating schedule of the Caernarvonstructure that is controlled by the Louisiana Depart-ment of Natural Resources. Figure 1 shows replicatedhigh flow and low flow diversions scheduled for thewinter and spring of 2001; similar diversions are plan-ned in 2002. In addition to marsh accretion studies,historical down-core studies will evaluate the effects

of the great 1927 flood event (approximately 650xbase flow of 14 m3/s) at this site.

The ecological science objectives are to evaluatemarsh and phytoplankton plant growth responses toriver pulses, and to evaluate marsh nitrogen nutrientremoval via denitrification. Stable isotope studies willassay effects of river pulses on recreational and com-mercial fisheries of this area.

The social science objectives are to make link-ages between the human and natural systems more un-derstandable in three separate modeling efforts: land-scape simulation modeling, multicriteria analysis, andcost/benefit economic analysis.

To document the effects of physical pulsing onthe overall ecosystem dynamics of this area, the ex-perimental treatments of high and low river input di-versions are being used. The research group is takingadvantage of natural storm and tide “pulse treatments.”Human reactions to natural pulsing (flooding) usuallyare negative, and the various planned modeling inter-faces will explore minimizing negative effects whilemaximizing positive effects of natural flood events.

The field program began in the fall of 2000, andsome indication of moderate to high chlorophyll levelshas been found in the fresher bays and lakes in theupper end of the estuary most impacted by the diver-sion. State and federal agencies are monitoring resultsof this project closely for possible management impli-cations. The first main field season began in January2001.



2001 Discharge Schedule

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Date

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ge (m

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Figure 1. Mississippi River inflows (PULSES) at Caernarvon, LA.



Linking Environmental and Social Performance Measurement for Management at National and Watershed Levels: Modeling and Statistical Approaches Scott Farrow 1, Mitchell Small 1, Tim Bondelid 2, Andrew Solow 3, George Van Houtven 2, James Sinnott 2,and Martin Schultz 1

1Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA; 2ResearchTriangle Institute, Research Triangle Park, NC; 3Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA

The goal of this research project is to integratephysical, ecological, and social science models and da-ta to provide an evaluation tool for surface waterquality managers at various levels of spatial aggre-gation. The objectives of the study are to: (1) estimateyear-to-year changes in water quality for conventionalwater quality parameters at the national and watershedlevel by using index numbers, and multivariate andordered mean rates of change; (2) estimate the netbenefits of alternative policies for total maximum dailyloads (TMDLs) trading; (3) estimate the economicbenefits of water quality improvement at the watershedlevel; (4) improve modeling of wet weather events ina policy model; and (5) estimate the link between wa-ter quality pollution abatement and control expendi-tures at the facility level and water quality performanceindicators for the nation and specific regions and wa-tersheds.

Both modeling and statistical approaches arebeing investigated. As a point of departure, the Na-tional Water Pollution Control Assessment Model(NWPCAM) is being used (see Figure 1). With that

model, sensitivity to various input parameters, thelinkage between its output, and other indices of sur-face water quality are being investigated. Econometrictechniques are being applied to facility-specific data.

In the initial partial year of implementation, themajor sources of uncertainty in the model approachhave been characterized, investigation of the weakstatistical links between model-based and state reportsof water quality has begun, and the hypothesis aboutthe crossmedia pollution abatement control costs andthe actions of polluting firms at the local level havebeen econometrically tested.

Although the results are preliminary, they pointthe way to local, state, and regional integrated waterquality assessments that combine environmental andsocial performance measures. Investigation of the be-havioral modeling of state water quality reports andintegration of cost data into the water quality modelalso have begun. With this integration, it is hoped tomove toward evaluation of alternative policies for wa-ter quality management where TMDLs have been de-fined.



* State average values based on Lyon and Farrow Uniform estimate.† Based on unweighted average state water quality estimates from NWPCAM 1.0.

Figure 1. Preliminary water comparison: 305(b) and NWPCAM.



Alternative Urbanization Scenarios for an Agricultural Watershed: Design Criteria, Social Constraints, and Effects on Groundwater and Surface Water SystemsRichard C. Lathrop 1,2, Kenneth W. Potter 2, Jean M. Bahr 2, Kenneth R. Bradbury 2, Steven R. Greb 1, James A. LaGro, Jr. 2, Edward B. Nelson 1, Peter Nowak 2, and Joy B. Zedler 2

1Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, Madison, WI; 2University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI

The urbanization of agricultural landscapes is oc-curring throughout the United States, resulting in thedegradation of aquatic systems. Fundamental changesin watershed hydrology result from the construction ofimpervious surfaces (roofs, streets, sidewalks). As im-pervious surface area expands, runoff peaks and vol-umes increase, and water quality and groundwater lev-els decline. Increased runoff peaks cause channel ero-sion and habitat degradation—increased erosion of soiland associated nutrients causes sedimentation and eu-trophication of lakes and wetlands. The diminishedgroundwater levels desiccate wetlands and lead to areduction in the discharge of high-quality groundwaterto lakes, streams, and springs, and wetland biodiversitydeclines. These impacts of urbanization are exacer-bated in regions where groundwater is pumped fordomestic use and irrigation.

This group will evaluate alternative managementpractices and patterns of urbanization by consideringa range of urban development issues, including stormrunoff, groundwater depletion, wastewater treatment,eutrophication, and wetland degradation. The inter-action among these issues and the social and politicalopportunities for, and constraints on, effective manage-ment also will be addressed. The goal is to fill criticalknowledge gaps and extend (or develop) analytical andmodeling tools that will minimize the hydrologic andecological impacts of urbanization. This new know-ledge and enhanced modeling tools will be applied toa case study of the North Fork of Pheasant Branch nearMadison, WI (see Figure 1).

An abundance of data, several ongoing researchprojects, and a high level of public interest make thisan excellent research site. Comparable land use/watermanagement scenarios for this watershed will be con-structed, including “low-impact development” designs,and their approximate economic costs, social/politicalacceptability, and hydrologic and ecological impactswill be evaluated. Extant groundwater and surface wa-ter models calibrated for the region and structurallymodified by the research group will be used to correct-ly simulate the infiltration practices, thermal pollution,well locations and pumping schedules, and wastewatertreatment options.

Urban impacts on wetlands, especially their bio-diversity, will be examined. Those native species thatcan thrive in constructed urban bioretention wetlandswill be determined. Farmer behaviors needed to reducehigh soil P concentrations in agricultural lands that arelikely to be converted to urban development will beevaluated, and water clarity and algal bloom responsesto scenarios of P loading changes downstream in LakeMendota will be modeled.

Finally, the social and institutional barriers tolow-impact development will be evaluated through in-terviews and focus groups with engineers, planners,homeowners, and other key players. This multidisci-plinary research will allow for recommendations to bemade that should help local governments and citizengroups improve the management and protection ofcritical aquatic resources in rapidly urbanizing land-scapes.



Urban Areas Lakes

Urban Areas Wetlands

P h e a s a n t B r a n c h W a t e r s h e d 0 1 2 K i l o m e t e r s

L a k e M e n d o t a W a t e r s h e d

N

Figure 1. Map of Lake Mendota Watershed, including Pheasant Branch Subwatershed and the Madison metropolitan urbanarea. The enlarged map of Pheasant Branch shows the major downstream wetland and the North Fork Creek area that is still in agricultural land use (not shaded).



An Integrated GIS Framework for Water Reallocation and Decisionmaking in the Upper Rio Grande BasinOlen Paul Matthews 1 and David Brookshire 2

1Department of Geography, 2Department of Economics, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM

Reallocating water is a politically sensitive issuein the Western United States. Changes from agricul-tural uses to urban or environmental uses are occur-ring, but the process tends to polarize competing waterusers, thus creating barriers to reallocation. Other bar-riers are inherent in the appropriation doctrine, andsome barriers exist because of poor data or inadequatescience. These barriers could be more easily overcomeand the process made less political if the impacts ofchange were better known.

The biophysical and behavioral models currentlyused to predict the impacts of change do not accountfor spatial complexity or information uncertainty inways that overcome barriers to reallocation. An inte-grated approach that couples a spatial and temporalframework to biophysical, institutional, and behavioralscience can reduce uncertainty. Process-based geogra-phic information systems (GISs) can fill that role by al-lowing impacts to be assessed more accurately.

A coupled physical, environmental, and humansystem model is being developed in an integrated GISframework to simulate interactions and changes withinthe Rio Grande Watershed, NM. The coupled modelwill operate entirely within a GIS, unlike other modelsthat use a GIS mostly for display. This approach willpermit the evaluation of impacts if any component ofthe model changes as a result of natural or anthropo-genic causes. Because water law and economics willbe integrated with physical and biological components,the coupled model can be used to evaluate the econom-ic consequences of water reallocation and the impactsof different environmental policies. Stakeholders willuse the model to evaluate policy questions.

The project has two components: (1) develop-ment of the GIS model, and (2) stakeholder evaluationof policy options. The modeling framework of thisstudy utilizes a raster-based distributed water balanceapproach in which each raster element represents abucket through which inputs and outputs may be rout-ed. The model utilizes a hierarchical resolution gridscheme based on a quad-tree subdivision of the land-scape. The raster data structure is designed to allow aninfinite number of process specific resolutions on an asneeded basis (i.e., finer cells where detail is required,coarser cells where data limitations preclude the finerscales or where processes operate on coarser scales).

Stakeholders will identify issues and create futurewater use scenarios. The information gained duringthese early stages will be hypothetical to a large extent.A pseudo-real time decision analysis tool will be de-veloped that incorporates real consequences, via mon-etary payoffs, to minimize the potential bias in hypo-thetical responses. Stakeholders will make water usedecisions in an experimental setting. The cumulativeeffects of individual stakeholder decisions will be sim-ulated using a GIS model developed during the first2 years of this research.

The model’s data structure is being developedand stakeholders are identifying the issues. Preliminaryexperiments with stakeholder participation are occur-ring. These are the first steps needed for model devel-opment. The routing mechanism for water movementneeds to be developed, different elements of the modelneed to be linked, the decision analysis tool needs tobe refined, and water use scenarios need to be devel-oped.



The Spatial Pattern of Land Use Conversion: Linking Economics, Hydrology, and Ecology To Evaluate the Effects of Alternative Future Growth Scenarios on Stream EcosystemsMargaret A. Palmer 1, Nancy E. Bockstael 2, Glenn E. Moglen 3, N. LeRoy Poff 4, James E. Pizzuto 5, Cameron Wiegand 6, and Keith Van Ness 6

1Department of Biology, 2Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 3Department of Civil andEnvironmental Engineering, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; 4Department of Biology, ColoradoState University, Ft. Collins, CO; 5Department of Geology, University of Delaware, Newark, DE; 6Departmentof Environmental Protection, Montgomery County, Rockville, MD

Conversion of land to residential use has degrad-ed freshwater ecosystems throughout the United States.This research project is interested in how the timing,rate, and spatial configuration of land conversion in-fluences stream habitat and ecosystem health.

The basic design is to contrast two watershedswith an older development closer to Washington, DC,with two watersheds in the rapidly expanding rural-urban fringe of Montgomery and Howard Counties,MD. This design provides a broad mix of intensity,spatial configuration, and history of land use develop-ment.

By working with these counties, access to exist-ing high-resolution geographic information system(GIS) and biomonitoring databases is maximized.Through collaboration with the Montgomery CountyDepartment of Environmental Protection, the effective-ness of current land use policies and restoration pro-grams in minimizing the ecological consequences ofland use conversion in urbanizing watersheds is beingevaluated.

The project objectives are to: (1) examine, usingpast and current conditions, how the type, timing, andrate of development in conjunction with its spatial con-figuration influence stream hydrology and geomorph-ology, which influence the structure and function ofstream ecosystems; (2) evaluate the effectiveness oflocal government policies in altering the pattern of de-velopment and in mitigating the impact of develop-ment on stream ecosystems; and (3) use empirical andtheoretical models from hydrology, geomorphology,and economics to make and test projections aboutfuture development and its ecological implications,and to compare stream health measures under differentspatial and temporal patterns of development.

To accomplish these objectives, this research isbuilding on recent econometric work aimed at mod-eling and forecasting not only the quantity of land usechange, but also future spatial development patterns.This project will incorporate the temporal dynamics ofland conversion decisions and the details of Montgomery

and Howard Counties’ regulatory instruments thathave been aimed at altering the spatial and temporalcharacteristics of development. This extension to themodeling approach allows for testing the effectivenessof these specific public policy instruments, assessingthe effect of increasingly stringent stormwater man-agement plans on development costs and the amenityvalue of stream-side properties, and forecasting futuredevelopment patterns.

Spatially explicit models are being developed thatpredict, conditional on land use history and pattern, thechange in hydrologic and geomorphic parameters thatinfluence conditions along stream flowpaths in mul-tiple watersheds across an urban-rural gradient (seeFigure 1). These models either are embedded directlywithin the framework of the GIS or are linked to theGIS in a batch-style configuration so as to fully con-sider the spatial and temporal dynamics of the land usechange within the study watersheds.

The flow of information from one discipline toanother likewise is mediated by the common frame-work provided by the GIS, which is critical to provid-ing a meaningful and precise linkage between econom-ic, hydrologic, geomorphic, and ecological quantities.

Ecological and geomorphic data will be collectedover the 3 years of the project at multiple locationswithin the watersheds. These locations are organizedalong a series of nested subwatersheds allowing for theaggregation of data at different spatial scales to followthe natural structure of the drainage network. The in-tent is to determine how land use patterns and historyof development influence local ecological conditions.Specifically, this will allow for an assessment of whetherecological responses occur at thresholds under variouscombinations of extent, spatial configuration, and his-tory of land use configurations.

This research offers a synthesized approach toevaluate the environmental consequences of alternativefuture development scenarios in urbanizing watershedswhere the spatial pattern and tempo of development isa growing public policy issue.



Figure 1. Predicting impacts of land use change in urban/suburban lotic ecosystems by integrating models operating ondifferent spatial-temporal scales.



Integrating Coral Reef Ecosystem Integrity and Restoration Options With Watershed-Based Activities in theTropical Pacific Islands and the Societal Costs of Poor Land-Use PracticesRobert H. Richmond 1, Michael Hamnett 2, and Eric Wolanski 3

1Marine Laboratory, University of Guam, Mangilao, GU; 2Social Sciences Research Institute, University ofHawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; 3Australian Institute of Marine Sciences, Townsville, Queensland, Australia

The objectives of this research are to: (1) charac-terize watershed discharges affecting coastal reefschemically, temporally, and spatially; (2) determine theclasses and concentrations of coastal pollutants that areof greatest concern to coral reef sustainability, and pro-vide quantitative data for revising local and regionalwater quality standards; (3) develop techniques thatcan identify sublethal stress in corals, before outrightmortality occurs; (4) determine if coral reef recoveryand restoration activities are practical following bothanthropogenic and natural disturbances; (5) quantifythe cultural and economic impacts of land-based devel-opments that affect coastal resources, and incorpor-ate this information into the decisionmaking process;(6) develop educational materials for a variety of usersand stakeholders; and (7) develop a set of recommen-dations to prevent damage to coral reef ecosystems,and when such occurs, mitigation measures that maybe undertaken.

These objectives are being met by addressing thefollowing questions: (1) What is being discharged on-to reefs from within selected watersheds? (2) How ef-fective are present mitigation measures in controllingwatershed discharges, and how can these be improvedto provide measurable results? (3) Of the five chem-ically mediated steps essential for successful coral re-production and recruitment, which are most sensitiveto diminished water quality and what are the thresholdlevels? (4) When land-based development occurs, whatare the societal costs when coastal resources are af-fected? What are the parameters to be considered whenattempting to balance economic development and cul-tural preservation on small islands? (5) Are coral reefrestoration activities practical, and if so, under whatcircumstances? (6) How can data from this and otherstudies be presented to stakeholders, as well as tradi-tional and elected leaders to allow for effective envi-ronmental policy development and implementation?

The approach includes performing ecologicalstudies on coral reefs as well as laboratory-based bio-assays; quantifying levels at which sedimentation andselected classes of pollutants become problematic;

studying coastal water characteristics of flow, resi-dence time, and spatial extent of watershed dischargeto determine measures that can be implemented to re-duce negative impacts; quantifying the societal costs toisland communities resulting from watershed and re-lated reef degradation; and testing reef restoration tech-niques coupled with land-based remediation.

Coral fertilization and recruitment bioassays wereperformed during the summer spawning event. Copperwas found to inhibit both fertilization and larval re-cruitment at levels of 100 ppb and below. Watersheddischarge effects, including impacts of reduced coastalsalinity (see Figure 1) and increased substratum coverby algae, also were documented. Techniques for re-cruitment bioassays using metamorphic inducers wererefined and are being tested for precision. Coral culti-vation techniques were refined and applied to pro-ducing additional colonies for bioassays and transplan-tation/reseeding trials.

Current meters were purchased and deployed togather data on coastal circulation patterns and charac-terize the extent of freshwater plumes being dischargedinto reef areas from select watersheds. The first set ofcirculation models was developed. A workshop washeld to set priorities and identify the deliverables thatwould be of most value. The workshop was attendedby 14 resource managers, researchers, educators, andcommunity-based organizational representatives.

This information is being incorporated into theresearch plan, and there will be a followup later thisyear. The “deliverables” are expected to include toolsnecessary for assessing coral reef health, for monitor-ing changes related to human activities, as well as in-formation to guide development and policy in a respon-sible manner.

The next steps are to: (1) begin the assessment ofthe societal costs associated with poor land-use prac-tices; (2) begin work on the educational materials;(3) continue characterization of coastal water qualityduring the dry season, and prepare for sampling duringthe onset of the rainy season; and (4) continue exper-iments on the application of biomarkers in corals.



Figure 1. Effect of altered salinity on fertilization of Acropora surculosa. Control = filtered seawater with salinity of 34.1 o/oo. Statistically significant effects of reduced salinity from control; 15 percent dilution, p value 0.003; 20 percent dilution, p value < 0.0001.



Identification and Control of Nonpoint Sources of Microbial Pollution in a Coastal WatershedBrett Sanders 1, Stanley Grant 1, Alex Horne 3, Robin Keller 2, and Mark Sobsey 4

1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2Graduate School of Management, University ofCalifornia, Irvine, CA; 3Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California,Berkeley, CA; 4School of Public Health, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC

The goals of this project are to: (1) characterizethe spatiotemporal variability of microbial pollution inurban runoff and to identify the association betweenpathogens and indicator organisms; (2) develop a nov-el strategy to control the impact of urban runoff on themicrobial water quality of beaches and coastal wet-lands during nonstorm periods; and (3) develop a mul-tiple-objective decision model to aid stakeholders inselecting strategies to mitigate microbial pollution prob-lems in coastal waters.

A well-defined and controllable system of floodcontrol channels and a constructed marsh in southernCalifornia will be utilized as the test site. The floodcontrol infrastructure includes a network of pump sta-tions with forebays that are engineered to lift runofffrom below sea-level subbasins into tidally influencedflood control channels that drain to the ocean.

A sampling survey of forebay water and channelwater will be undertaken to ascertain the spatiotempo-ral variabilility of pathogens (enteric viruses) and indi-cator microorganisms (Escherichia coli, enterococci,spores of Clostridium perfringens, fecal coliform, andmale-specific and somatic bacteriophage) present inthe watershed to address the goal of ascertaining theassociation between pathogen levels and indicatororganisms both at the inlet to open channel waterways,

and at the outlet where runoff drains to the near-shoreregion. The control approach involves combining bothactive and passive control strategies to mitigate theimpact of urban runoff that is transported by flood con-trol channels, through a constructed wetland, and intoa recreational near-shore area.

Pump station operation schedules that minimizethe impact of urban runoff on coastal water quality willbe determined, and the principal mechanisms responsi-ble for pathogen removal by tidally influenced con-structed wetlands will be identified through a series ofmicrocosm studies.

Stakeholders will be interviewed or surveyed toevaluate preferences towards various objectives as-sociated with active and passive control strategies, anda decisionmaking model will be developed to assessthe efficacy of existing control alternatives and to iden-tify previously unrecognized approaches for water qual-ity control.

Because flood control channels are a ubiquitousfeature of urban watersheds and constructed wetlandshave become an important resource for pollution mit-igation, the primary data, control strategies, and stake-holder information obtained in this study could lead toregional and national strategies for reducing the ad-verse impact of urban runoff on coastal water quality.



Strategic Renewal of Large Floodplain Rivers: Integrated AnalysisRichard E. Sparks 1, Deborah Beal 5, John B. Braden 2, Misganaw Demissie 6, Andrew M. Isserman 2,Douglas M. Johnston 7, Jungik Kim 3, Yanqing Lian 6, Da-Mi Maeng 1, Zorica Nedovic-Budic 3, Daniel Schneider 3,8, Diane M. Timlin 4, and David C. White 2

1Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences, 2Department of Agricultural and ConsumerEconomics, 3Department of Urban and Regional Planning, 4Department of Geography, University of Illinois,Urbana, IL; 5Department of Environmental Studies, Illinois College, Jacksonville, IL; 6Illinois State WaterSurvey, Champaign, IL; 7National Center for Supercomputing Applications, Champaign, IL; 8Illinois StateNatural History Survey, Champaign, IL

This research extends an earlier Water and Wa-tersheds project (96-13562) by refining and linkingecologic, hydrologic, and economic models to supportrestoration planning for a large river floodplain system.A suite of models is being developed to provide in-sights to stakeholders concerning likely impacts of res-toration strategies by simulating essential aspects of alarge floodplain-river ecosystem so that alternative res-toration strategies can be evaluated.

Component models that are being linked include:(1) one- and two-dimensional hydraulic models of theriver, (2) a floodplain forest simulator, (3) a herba-ceous plant simulator, (4) numerous habitat suitabilityindices, and (5) regional economic input/output mod-els. An 80-mile section of the Illinois River serves asthe study site.

Water levels in the river govern the inundationpattern on the floodplains, except where levees preventflooding of lands developed mostly for row crop agri-culture. The inundation pattern determines the vegeta-tion communities, which in turn provide habitat andfood for fish and wildlife.

Restoration involves “de-development,” or con-version of some land from existing agricultural andother commercial uses, to uses such as flood convey-ance, restoration of native plant and animal commu-nities, and outdoor recreation. The impacts of suchconversions on local and regional economies are im-portant political and policy issues.

A second issue is naturalization of the seasonalflood regime. Models indicate that simply removingsome levees will not restore native plant and animalcommunities. Operation of the navigation dams, andother factors now cause excessive, unnatural waterfluctuations during the summer growing season, whichdestroy valuable plant communities.

Policy options include opening the levees andmodifying the operation of the navigation dams toachieve more natural flooding; or alternatively, keep-ing the levees intact and using pumps to create waterregimes in the areas behind the levees that are “ideal”(e.g., for waterfowl). Variations on each of these op-tions (e.g., regulating flooding of land behind leveesusing control structures installed in the levees) havecomplex consequences both in terms of costs and de-gree of restoration of plant and animal communitiesand ecosystem functions.

The connections between the river and its flood-plain, and therefore between the hydrology, ecology,and economic processes, are fundamentally spatial in-teractions. A geographic information system will serveas a data repository, a link between the various models,and a tool for analyzing the effects of alternative man-agement strategies. State-of-the-art visualization toolswill translate the spatially integrated model results intovisual presentations to improve understanding of envi-ronmental processes and facilitate communication withstakeholders.



Watershed-Scale Assessments of E. coli Contamination Implications of Source Identification for Public Policy DebateRonald Turco, S. Brouder, C. Nakatsu, A. Bhunia, J. Frankenberger, J. Harbor, and G. ThomasEnvironmental Sciences and Engineering Institute, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN

In watersheds in Indiana (as in most of the Mid-west), contamination from Escherichia coli exceedswater quality standards in most locations where mon-itoring has been conducted. This study area, in theTippecanoe River Watershed, drains into Lake Shafer.Lake Shafer is a 522-ha water supply in north centralIndiana that has shown significant and repeated highlevels of bacterial contamination as well as some con-tamination from plant nutrients, but fairly low levels ofpesticides. Since 1993, approximately 49 percent ofthe 775 Lake Shafer water samples collected for gen-eral coliform testing have tested over the acceptableU.S. Environmental Protection Agency standard forwhole body contact. The significance of this concernis in the exposure route. Drinking water supplies aretreated (i.e., with chlorine) before coming into contactwith humans. Recreational waters are not treated, andexposure is through whole body contact, includingsome ingestion.

This project has five specific objectives. Objec-tive 1 is to facilitate the use of scientific evidence(generated from other parts of this project) in practicalefforts to improve water quality in Lake Shafer by de-fining the setting for information assessment and pub-lic interaction. Objective 2 is to estimate locations andtypes of fecal sources available to the water supplythrough a pathway analysis, and to describe water flowwithin the two subwatersheds. Objective 3 is to definethe sources of the bacterial pollution by developing acomprehensive identification scheme and database forE. coli strains using a sensitive DNA fingerprintingtechnique (e.g., amplified fragment length polymor-phism). Objective 4 is to fully characterize the role that

land application of manure plays (if any) in facilitatingthe introduction of bacterial populations into surfacewater. Objective 5 is to deliver scientific evidence(generated from other parts of this project) to stake-holders in the watershed as part of the evolving dialogestablished in Objective 1, and to assess how this isused to reach consensus concerning the set of solutionsthe community will adopt as the most cost-effectiveand equitable approaches to addressing the E. coliproblem.

To meet Objectives 1 and 2, the contribution ofE. coli from different land uses along two rivers thatfeed into the lake is being tested by comparingsamples collected at 21 different locations. A newhypothesis on E. coli fate in the landscape is beingdeveloped. To meet Objective 3, more than 1,900environmental “E. coli,” defined as E. coli from knownand unknown environmental sources, have beencollected. These presently are being genetically char-acterized. To meet Objective 4, data from a controlledfield site receiving seasonal applications of manure arebeing collected. From these data, clear evidence hasbeen found indicating that the longevity of E. coli inthe environment may be longer than anticipated.

Integrated within these programs has been a se-ries of community/stakeholder events. A Web site andnewsletters have been developed, and a number of pre-sentations describing the project have been given. Thefinal stages of data analysis for the baseline survey ofenvironmental awareness are underway. As these datasets begin to be used in educational efforts, communityawareness and response to data collected in their wa-tershed will be evaluated.



An Acre an Hour: Documenting the Effects of Urban Sprawl in a Model Watershed Near Philadelphia, PennsylvaniaClaire Welty 1, Susan S. Kilham 1, Aaron I. Packman 2, and Robert J. Brulle 1

1School of Environmental Science, Engineering, and Policy, Drexel University, Philadelphia, PA;2Department of Civil Engineering, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL

The principal objective of this project is to doc-ument the effects of urbanization on the Valley CreekWatershed, which lies in a rapidly developing area ofsuburban Philadelphia, PA. Valley Creek is a tributaryof the Schuylkill River and runs through Valley ForgeNational Historic Park. The watershed lies in the Pied-mont physiographic province and supports a reproduc-ing brown trout population in its limestone-fed stream.In addition to the common effects of development suchas increased surface runoff and sediment loading, thewatershed has experienced point-source pollution prob-lems from Resource Conservation and Recovery Actand Comprehensive Environmental Response, Com-pensation, and Liability Act hazardous waste sites, anddewatering of the aquifer due to quarrying operationsand pumping for a municipal water supply.

A historical review of land use is being conduct-ed in an attempt to quantify the changes in the streamcaused by development during the last 200 years. Spe-cifically, changes in population, building permits, roadmileage, and land use patterns from colonial times tothe present are being examined. After the effects ofprior development in the watershed have been estab-lished, the effect of the continuing urbanization of thearea will be assessed. Because the watershed is ac-tively undergoing urbanization, this research groupwill attempt to directly examine the development-induced geomorphologic changes in the stream overtime. The primary conditions being observed are:stream flows (base and storm flows), channel morph-ology, bed composition, and suspended sediment con-centrations.

The degree and pattern of heterogeneity of hy-draulic conductivity of this fractured rock aquifer willbe quantified at multiple scales from existing hydro-geologic data. The effect of aquifer heterogeneity andthree-dimensional flow pathways on stream-subsurfaceexchange rates and contaminant transport subsequentlywill be evaluated using groundwater flow and transportmodels. This information will be used to assess thechemical loadings to the fish and other biota in the

stream. Stream tracer-injection experiments are beingused to directly assess stream-subsurface exchange inValley Creek and storage of tracer in the hyporheiczone.

Several aspects of the interaction between envi-ronmental quality and the biota in this watershed arebeing investigated. First, sediment distribution data arebeing collected to assess the impacts of changes inchannel characteristics on the community structure ofmacroinvertebrates and fish. Second, polychlorinatedbiphenyl (PCB) levels and supply rates are being com-pared with PCB levels in the organisms from the sameareas. Third, the positioning of species in the food webis being assessed to measure biomagnification via foodweb processes. Fourth, general stress levels in the or-ganisms are being measured—these measurements arebeing related to PCB levels as an independent in-dicator of environmental impacts on organisms. Thisanalysis will allow for the development of a compre-hensive picture of how urbanization-induced changesin the watershed affect invertebrate and fish com-munities.

Political controversies in this watershed have lefta documented historical record of the political strug-gles that develop in the process of urbanization. Themajor development activities that have had an impacton the watershed over time will be identified, and thepolitical decisionmaking associated with these activi-ties will be examined. By examining these politicaldecisions, an understanding of the political forces in-volved in urbanization can be developed.

The social science research is based on the use ofthree social science perspectives: (1) Advocacy Coali-tion Framework, (2) network analysis, and (3) dis-course analysis. These sociological perspectives definean image of watershed politics as the result of the for-mation of different advocacy coalitions, each with aspecific network structure and unique belief system. Acomprehensive historical view of the process of urban-ization, including the influence of social, economic,and political factors will emerge from this research.

Section 2.

Projects Initiated With Fiscal Year 1998 Support



Development and Testing of a Decision Support System for River RehabilitationJ. David Allan, Gloria Helfand, and Joan NassauerSchool of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI

The goal of this research project is to develop aconceptual and quantitative watershed model that willaid in identifying opportunities for the rehabilitationof stream ecosystems that are socially acceptable,ecologically beneficial, and cost effective. Researchis organized around a series of modules, each ofwhich can be linked to a geographic information sys-tem (GIS).

The final product will be an integrated, spa-tially explicit, multiscale model to display informa-tion on land use, land cover, and ecological conditionof tributary streams in a 5,000 km2 agricultural andurbanizing region. Using “build-out” projections oflocal government master plans, as implemented byconventional or alternative innovative landscape sce-narios, the approach is intended to support decision-makers’ capacities to advocate for ecologically ben-eficial landscape change and to anticipate ecologicaleffects of landscape changes that are likely to beproposed for agricultural landscapes.

Module A: Landscape and Hydrological Pro-cesses. The Huron (drainage area 2,320 km2) andRaisin (2,780 km2) Watersheds together comprisemuch of the landscape of southeastern Michigan ex-ternal to Greater Detroit. The Huron has substantialurban land, including small cities and outlying sprawl,while the Raisin has less urban development. TheHuron Basin is less agricultural compared with theRaisin Basin, and it contains more wetland and asimilar amount of forest. Considerable spatial hetero-geneity is observable at the scale of the subcatch-ments associated with headwater streams. Based onapproximately 50 small subcatchments from both wa-tersheds, agricultural land use varied from 2–80 per-cent, with the top quartile more than 60 percent agri-cultural. Urban land use ranged from 0.2–70 percent,with the top quartile more than 20 percent urban.

Comparison of 100-m riparian buffers to totalsubcatchment area reveals overall strong correla-tions. Wetland and grass are overrepresented in buf-fers and forest, agriculture, and urban land uses areunderrepresented, on average. Patch number, not patchsize, appears to underlie differences among sub-catchments in wetland and forest extent.

Module B: Social Acceptability and EconomicFeasibility of Alternative Landscape Scenarios.The premise of this module is that forms of devel-opment and forms of agriculture that are ecologicallybeneficial, and viewed as desirable and affordable by

the public are more likely to be implemented andsustained. Using alternative landscape designs as ex-perimental treatments, suburban and rural southeast-ern Michigan residents’ perceptions of the attractive-ness and prices for alternatives site and subdivisiondesigns were surveyed using traditional pencil-and-paper questionnaires and a Web-based survey.

Survey results will be used to determine wheth-er the more ecologically friendly designs are per-ceived and valued similarly, in which case there isno social cost (there is a social benefit) associatedwith improving ecological quality in the rivers. Ifpeople prefer the less ecologically friendly designs,then this research will calculate how much peoplemight have to be compensated for more protectivedesigns. Survey results also have scale (landownerversus subdivision) implications for planning devel-opment in rural areas.

Results to date indicate that at the subdivisionscale, design treatments characterized by the mostbeneficial ecological function, with less lawn areaand more forest or prairie, were more attractive. Incontrast, at the front yard scale, the most ecologic-ally beneficial designs were not found to be as at-tractive as moderately ecologically beneficial designsor the least ecologically beneficial designs. This scalehierarchy may suggest an ecologically beneficial andsocially acceptable approach to the aggregation ofsmall-scale ecological improvements at the subdivi-sion and watershed scale.

Module C: Ecological Integrity of Stream Eco-systems. One or more field sites on 48 tributarystreams were assessed using biological (fish macro-invertebrates), habitat metrics, and chemistry. Anal-ysis of macroinvertebrate data is not complete. Land-scape metrics (subcatchment land use, buffer landuse, subcatchment geology) alone accounted for ap-proximately 30 percent of the variation in the fish-based index of biotic integrity (IBI). Habitat metricsaccounted for 41–54 percent of variation in the IBI.This analysis is preliminary, using simple combina-tions of variables. Further analyses will use multi-variate approaches to explore the interrelationshipsamong landscape, habitat, and biological measure-ments required to determine the best set of predictiverelationships for model-building.

The project was initiated in June 1999. Work todate has concentrated on module development, withintegration efforts slated for summer of 2001.



An Integrated Systems Approach to Watershed Restoration With Community Involvement Applied to a Small Rural WatershedJ. Boll 1, J.D. Wulfhorst 2, S. Chen 3, C.O. Stockle 3, D.K. McCool 3, D.C. Brown 4, D. Feichtinger 4, and A.J. Vitale 5

1Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, 2Department of Agricultural Economics and RuralSociology, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID; 3Biological Systems Engineering Department, Washington StateUniversity, Pullman, WA; 4Natural Resources Conservation Service, Coeur d’Alene, ID; 5Coeur d’AleneTribe, Fish, and Wildlife Program, Plummer, ID

In watersheds today, it is imperative to develop ascientifically based, integrated watershed restorationprocess with community input. The geographic areabeing studied in this research project is the NorthwestWheat and Range Region in Idaho, Washington, andOregon. The objectives of this project are to: (1) de-velop a geographic information system (GIS)-basedintegrated systems approach for watershed restoration(see Figure 1); (2) adapt the adoption-diffusion modelto identify institutional and attitudinal barriers to theadoption of erosion and water quality control practices;(3) test and improve an existing model for enhancedability to determine critical source areas and to eval-uate management practices and climatic variation inwatersheds; and (4) develop an optimization techniquefor integration with the systems approach, includingsocioeconomic, physical, and ecological aspects. Thestudy watershed is Lake Creek Watershed in the Coeurd’Alene Lake Basin in Idaho/Washington State.

Watershed restoration consists of the selection of“best management practices,” which consider a physi-cal, socioeconomic, and cultural component. Restora-tion efforts in Lake Creek Watershed since 1991 pro-vide data on hydrology, water quality, and ecologicalaspects. Using these data, a hydrology model coupledwith simple crop growth, erosion, and economic mod-els has been developed and tested to determine the costof erosion without the use of control practices.

Current land use conditions are characterized bybluegrass seed production and future conditions by theconversion to winter wheat. This approach is being ex-panded to include the cost of different tillage oper-ations and implementation of control practices. Inter-views were held in the watershed to strengthen thesociological aspects of erosion control. Multiple meet-ings with the Watershed Working Group were heldwhich, among others, consists of the local communityand tribal, state, and federal agencies.

Given the desire to transfer the integrated systemto county-level resource managers, two constraints wereplaced on model development. First, input data arebased on publicly available data sources, and second,the models do not require calibration. Application toLake Creek Watershed shows that using these con-straints provided very reasonable results. The hydrol-ogy model successfully simulated observed stream flowand distribution of runoff-generating areas in the wa-tershed.

Erosion distribution in the watershed determinedusing the empirical Revised Universal Soil Loss Equa-tion (RUSLE), which used a length-slope factor basedon upslope contributing area, agreed reasonably wellwith the distribution of runoff-generating areas. In ad-dition, total erosion amounts appeared to be in agree-ment with observed sediment measured in the stream.The crop growth modeling approach based on actualevapotranspiration and water use efficiency yieldedreasonable, although somewhat low, spatially distri-buted estimates of bluegrass and wheat yields. Yieldreductions after 75 years of soil erosion using the ad-justed topsoil depths were somewhat low, resulting insmall yearly price reductions.

The example application shows the potential ofthe integrated systems approach in yielding very usefulsite-specific information. It is believed that this tooleventually will assist resource managers to identifycritical source areas within a watershed and properlyassign load reductions for individual landowners. Anoptimization procedure is being developed based onthe RUSLE. The objective function is minimizing thetotal cost of restoration of an entire farm in a water-shed, or all the farms in the entire watershed. Integra-tion of an expanded version of the physical-economicsystems approach with the sociological data will fol-low another round of interviews with landowners inthe watershed.



Maintain status or recommendationsMaintain status or recommendations

Physical Science Model(hydrology and water quality)- onsite soil and nutrient loss- offsite soil and nutrient loss

Physical Science Model(hydrology and water quality)- onsite soil and nutrient loss- offsite soil and nutrient loss

Socioeconomic Model- cost of erosion- farm optimization

Socioeconomic Model- cost of erosion- farm optimization

Optimization Scheme- water quality plan

Optimization Scheme- water quality plan

Issystem

acceptable?

Issystem

acceptable?

climateDEM, soils, land use,

current/alternativepractices

Database/GIS

climateDEM, soils, land use,

current/alternativepractices

Database/GIS

Implementation- community involvement

Implementation- community involvement

Resource ManagersResource Managers

Indicators Assessment:Socioeconomic: Ecological:- offsite (urban) - water quality- onsite - habitat- farm income - biol. health

Indicators Assessment:Socioeconomic: Ecological:- offsite (urban) - water quality- onsite - habitat- farm income - biol. health

Yes

No

Figure 1. Schematic representation of the GIS-based integrated systems approach.



Integrating Ecological, Economic, and Social Goals in Restoration DecisionmakingJohn Bolte Bioresource Engineering Department, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR

The integration of ecological, economic, andsocial goals is an important element of watershedrestoration planning and prioritization. It generally isaccepted that for restoration efforts to be successful,each of these goals must be addressed in a mannerthat reflects stakeholder priorities, objectives, andconstraints. Additionally, it is becoming increasinglyapparent that restoration strategies based solely onopportunistic, site-scale activities frequently do notaccomplish watershed-scale goals.

Because watersheds are complex systems in-volving integration of human, hydrologic, and eco-logical processes, it can be difficult to understand theconsequences of particular restoration activities onmeeting restoration goals. Synthesis tools capturingspatially explicit data are needed to couple humanand ecological processes with landscape features toassist in developing effective restoration plans.

The overall goal of this project is to refine andintegrate spatially explicit models of watershed func-tion and economic characterizations of restorationoptions with stakeholder-determined constraints andpriorities. The resulting tool can assist stakeholdersin identifying feasible restoration strategies and eval-uate the ecological and economic effectiveness ofthese strategies at addressing watershed-level ecolo-gical, economic, and social function.

A geographic information system-based multi-objective decision support tool that contains a seriesof rules that relate specific site-based restoration al-ternatives, stakeholder goals, and site-specific land-scape features is being developed to generate fea-sible restoration plans that reflect stakeholder con-cerns. This research group is cooperating with twowatershed councils representing diverse watershedtypes and disturbance levels to evaluate the effec-tiveness and transferability of the methodology be-tween distinct ecological and economic systems. The

analysis framework uses a landscape generator toapply design heuristics that embody ecological, eco-nomic, and social constraints and preferences to al-locate restoration activities to specific sites based onsite features. It then evaluates the resulting landscapeoptions using a series of ecological, social, and eco-nomic watershed-scale models. The utility of the toolfor addressing stakeholder needs and its impact onstakeholder decisionmaking is being explicitly eval-uated using sociological and applied anthropologicalmethods.

Sociological analysis of the stakeholder groupsrepresented in the two watershed councils has beencompleted. Also, the landscape generation tool hasbeen completed, and a collection of approximately400 rules relating the utility of particular restorationstrategies for meeting stakeholder preferences to sitefeatures have been developed. Preliminary resultshave been presented to the watershed councils withpositive results. Stakeholder suggestions currently arebeing incorporated into the analysis framework.

Initial results indicate that using a rule-basedframework for capturing qualitative relationships be-tween restoration strategies, stakeholder objectives,and site features is an effective way of representingthese relationships in a manner that stakeholders canreadily understand. Making restoration recommenda-tions at a site level, distributed across a watershed,allows for the evaluation of the effectiveness of ba-sinwide plans at meeting stakeholder goals. Further,the use of multiobjective methodologies provide astakeholder-accessible method for weighing and bal-ancing competing economic, social, and ecologicalobjectives. It is anticipated that these rules could bereadily adaptable to restoration strategies, other situ-ations, and stakeholder goals. Although it is too soonto evaluate the usage of the tool by the watershedcouncils, the initial response has been very positive.



Social Impact Assessment of Human Exposure to Mercury Related to Land Use and Physicochemical Settings in the Mobile-Alabama River BasinJean Claude Bonzongo 1, Eric E. Roden 2, Milton G. Ward 2, C. Hobson Bryan 3, W.B. Lyons 4, and Indrajeet Chaubey 5

1Department of Environmental and Engineering Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL; 2Departmentof Biological Sciences, 3Department of Geography, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL; 4Byrd PolarResearch Center, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH; 5Department of Biological and AgriculturalEngineering, University of Arkansas, Fayatteville, AR

There four objectives of this research projectare to: (1) determine levels and speciation of mercu-ry (Hg) in water, sediments, and fish from differentaquatic systems in the Mobile-Alabama River Basin(MARB) (see Figure 1); (2) investigate the linkagebetween land-use types or the presence of wetlandsand microbial Hg transformation and bioaccumu-lation; (3) predict Hg levels in fish using recent andhistorical land-use data; and (4) use a participatoryapproach to environmental decisionmaking to ame-liorate conflict, and achieve an effective understand-ing and support for Hg policy.

Water, sediment, and fish (largemouth bass)were collected from 52 sites with different land usesacross the MARB. Recreational tournament fisher-men were utilized for part of the fish collection ef-fort. Water chemistry, Hg levels, and speciation inthese samples are being determined. Following thissurvey, several sites will be selected for more inten-sive sampling and laboratory studies, directed to-ward linking observed trends in fish Hg levels withprocesses-controlling Hg transformation and bioac-cumulation. Next, a database will be developed andused to map Hg concentrations and to determinetheir correlation with biogeochemical and physicalvariables. Lastly, the public will be involved in andinformed of this research to aid in the assessment ofrisk imposed by elevated Hg levels in fish and tohelp formulate possible remedial policies.

Total mercury concentrations in the water sam-ples (0.43–2.23 ng L-1) fall among background levelstypically found in natural waters worldwide. Afteranalyzing the majority of the fish samples, at least

one fish from each major river basin within theMARB was found to have a total Hg concentrationgreater than 0.5 ppm, a level at which limited con-sumption is recommended by some regulatory stan-dards. Mercury concentrations of greater than 1 ppmwere detected in fish samples from three locationsthus far, two of which are categorized as being im-pacted by wetland area. Project personnel have metwith recreational fishermen, municipal groups, andseveral energy industries to exchange ideas and is-sues. These groups have come to appreciate the com-plexity involved in understanding Hg behavior in theenvironment, and they are willing to remain involvedthrough the life of the project.

Preliminary results suggest that while mercuryconcentrations in water samples from all sites are verylow, elevated levels of mercury are found in selectedfish samples across the watershed. The data supportthe idea that wetland abundance may result in higherconcentrations of mercury in fish in those areas. It isanticipated that the mapping and statistical analyseswill be helpful in predicting the potential for Hg ac-cumulation in predatory fish in other similar loca-tions in the Southeast United States, and that theapproach of involving stakeholders throughout theproject will result in positive approaches to develop-ing mercury policy.

After completion of all sample analyses, data-base development, and statistical analyses and map-ping, informed decisions will be made on which sitesto focus for the detailed biogeochemical studies. Thesocial assessment continues by gathering input fromstakeholders and identifying mutual concerns.



Figure 1. The Mobile-Alabama River Basin.



Applying the Patuxent and Gwynns Falls Landscape Models To Designing a Sustainable Balance Between Humans and the Rest of NatureRobert Costanza, Alexey Voinov, Roelof Boumans, Tom Maxwell, Ferdinando Villa, Helena Voinov, and Joshua FarleyInstitute for Ecological Economics, University of Maryland, Solomons, MD

As part of a previous Environmental ProtectionAgency/National Science Foundation-funded project,an integrated, spatially explicit model of the PatuxentWatershed, MD, has been developed (http://iee.umces.edu/PLM). The model is being further developed touse as a tool for whole watershed analysis and resto-ration. This includes development of methods to assessthe ecological health of ecosystems and watersheds,development of preferred future states for the water-sheds using broad stakeholder participation, and devel-opment of dynamic links between the ecological andsocioeconomic sectors of the model. Based on theabove, the degree to which various management poli-cies can restore the ecological health of the Patuxentand Gwynns Falls Watersheds and achieve the pre-ferred future states will be tested.

In the Patuxent Landscape Model (PLM), the wa-tershed is represented as a grid of cells with a process-based ecological model replicated in each of the cells.The ecological model includes modules to simulatelocal and spatially distributed hydrologic fluxes, nu-trient dynamics, plant growth, dead organic matterdecomposition, and so on. These modules were testedand calibrated separately, and then put together withina Spatial Modeling Environment, created by this re-search group, to represent the watershed as a whole.

The model runs are in good agreement with avail-able data. Analyses for numerous scenarios of land-usechange and nutrient loading were performed. Themodel output is compared in the different scenariosexamining nitrogen concentration in the Patuxent Riv-er as an indicator of water quality, changes in the hy-drologic flow, and changes in the net primary pro-ductivity of the landscape, as indicators of ecosystemservices.

The PLM has been calibrated to mimic the hy-drologic flows in the Villa Nova Subwatershed ofGwynns Falls. This research project will be expandedto other subwatersheds and the full watershed as thedata for calibration become available. The humancapital model has been further developed and tested.

Calibrations were successful against data from the U.S.Census Bureau on population dynamics in Baltimorebetween 1790 and 1994.

A stakeholder workshop (Patuxent and GwynnsFalls Watersheds) was held on February 14 at the Uni-versity of Maryland College Park Campus. Breakoutgroups discussed the most appropriate uses of the mod-el, assessed what model scenarios would prove mostuseful to stakeholders, and sought common groundconcerning preferred future states of the Patuxent andGwynns Falls Watersheds as a step towards definingendpoints for restoration efforts. The workshop provedvaluable in developing future directions for modeldevelopment to better meet stakeholder needs, andinitiated the task of defining preferred states for thewatersheds.

To ensure broad stakeholder participation, thisresearch group is working in close collaboration withthe Patuxent River Commission (PRC). A ScenarioDevelopment Working Group has been formed withthe PRC to oversee and coordinate the development ofthe model with the needs of the stakeholders. As anoutcome of this effort, several focus subwatershedshave been identified for case studies and specific ap-plications for restoration projects, such as riparian buf-fer design and stormwater management.

The model has been applied in an optimizationframework to find optimal patterns of land use andfertilizer application in a watershed. The goal functionwas chosen to take into account both economic andecological considerations. The integration of both ofthese indicators makes the approach very promisingfor purposes of valuation of landscapes and watershed.Outreach efforts include maintaining a Web page withall the significant project developments and applica-tions for public participation and dissemination ofresults. The project also became part of an educationaleffort in collaboration with the Calvert Department ofPlanning and Zoning and Calverton School to intro-duce high school students to watershed dynamics andmodeling.



Understanding the Social Context for Ecological Restoration in Multiple-Ownership Watersheds: The Case of the Cache River in IllinoisSteven Kraft 1, Christopher Lant 2, Jeffrey Beaulieu 1, Leslie Duram 2, J.B. Ruhl 3, David Bennett 4, Jane Adams 5, John Nicklow 6, and Tim Loftus 2

1Agribusiness Economics Department, 2Geography Department, 3Law School, 5Department of Anthropology,6Department of Civil Engineering, Southern Illinois University, Carbondale, IL; 4Geography Department,University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS

A conceptual framework that has been developedto help focus this work on the watershed planningprocess. As part of this process, the research teamidentified 30 individuals who were significant playersin the recently completed watershed planning processin the Cache River Watershed. Using an open-endedquestionnaire, indepth interviews of these key infor-mants were conducted. The informants came fromthree main groups: Technical Committee and otheragency personnel, local activists, and Resource Plan-ning Committee members. Interviews were based onquestions relating to the individual, the planning group,and outside influences. Interviews have been tran-scribed and are being analyzed.

Based on the interviews and literature review, aset of preliminary findings have been developed thatwill help to guide the remainder of the research. Asanalysis of the interviews continues and the focusgroup and telephone surveys are developed, it is impor-tant that these initial findings are used as a foundationfor broader investigation within the watershed.

Findings deal with the following topics: (1) theWatershed Plan provides agency legitimacy; (2) thereare divergent views between agency personnel andfarmers regarding the format and substance of the plan-ning meetings; (3) differences in the power base be-tween farmers and environmentalists in the region havedeveloped over time, so that environmentalists rely onthe agencies, while farmers rely on elected officials;and (4) theories of power structure are relevant in theCache and must be illuminated to understand the plan-ning process and its outcomes.

There has been a complete review of both stateand federal laws that impinge on watershed planning.Identifying the legal framework within which water-shed planning takes place in conjunction with the anal-ysis of the indepth interviews and literature review isexpected to shed light on the question of the legitimacyof the planning process and the resulting watershedresource management plan. The question of the legit-imacy of the planning process and the resulting resource

management plan has occupied many of the researchteam meetings during the last year. A review of theliterature indicates that this is a critical question in theplanning process that has not been addressed.

The development and refinement of a spatial de-cision support system (SDSS) has continued through-out this phase of the research. For the SDSS, the re-search team is developing a graphical user interfacethat will facilitate the use of the SDSS with communitymembers who are part of a watershed planning process.The goal is to have an SDSS that will show the eco-nomic and environmental consequences of differentpolicy scenarios designed to enhance environmentalquality. Watershed planners then would be able todevelop a number of “what if” scenarios and see theireconomic consequences as well as the implications forthe watershed’s landscape. To enhance the SDSS, useof genetic algorithms (GAs) is being explored.

The development of the genetic algorithm codeis complete. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) source code has been linked to the geneticalgorithm for the single objective function. This modelwill directly evaluate the optimal land-use distributionto minimize sediment yield. Figure 1 demonstrates asolution convergence to a minimum sediment yieldfrom a hydrologic response unit. This model will di-rectly evaluate the optimal land-use distribution to mini-mize sediment yield.

In light of practical constraints, a database offeasible land-use management alternatives currently isbeing assembled for SWAT that are appropriate for thestudy area. These will be incorporated into the GA-SWAT optimal control model for the singular sedimentobjective. Simultaneously, linkages between the SWATsource code and MINOS (a mathematical program-ming program) are being developed for an economic-related objective. The next phase of work will consistof integrating the sediment and economic model tocreate one multiobjective optimal control model thatinterfaces SWAT and the GA for minimizing sedimentyield and maximizing farming income.



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Figure 1. Solution convergence for a hydrologic response unit.



Restoring and Maintaining Riparian Ecosystem Integrity in Arid Watersheds: Meeting the Challenge Through Science and Policy AnalysisThomas Maddock, III 1, Kathryn Baird 1, Victor Baker 1, Bonnie Colby 2, Robert Glennon 3, and Julie Stromberg 4

1Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, 2Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics,3College of Law, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; 4Department of Plant Biology, Arizona State University,Tempe, AZ

This research project combines expertise from fourdisciplines whose knowledge is critical to restoring andmaintaining rivers in the Southwest: hydrology, ecology,economics, and law. Hydrologic models, a riparian eco-system integrity index, and economic analyses are beingintegrated into a user-friendly decision support system(DSS). Coupled with legal analysis, this integration isdesigned to aid in understanding the impact of develop-ment and in evaluating strategies for maintaining orachieving environmental restoration.

To improve estimates of riparian evapotranspiration(ET), ET measurements were taken in conjunction withclimate, surface water, and groundwater parameters onthe South Fork Kern River Basin. Detailed river eleva-tion profiles and vegetation transects were surveyed. ET(stem flux) measurements are being analyzed in con-junction with the tree structure, hydrologic, and climaticinformation. Joint ET and abiotic measurements eluci-date how abiotic parameters combine with tree physio-logy to determine the amount of water required by ri-parian trees. Community water requirements are scaledup from ET measurements, density and size class in-formation, and coverage estimates from habitat mapsderived from recent aerial photographs. To simulatesurface water and groundwater behavior, the HEC-RASand MODFLOW models are used. Flood flows asso-ciated with riparian recruitment events were determinedfrom tree ring and river gauge data.

To develop an index of biotic integrity (IBI), fieldstudies on two community types in the San Pedro Basinare underway to identify metrics that are sensitive in-dicators of site moisture availability. Research was con-ducted on sites spanning a gradient from wet (perennialstream flow) to dry (ephemeral flow). Vegetation var-iables from three categories were measured: individual

productivity, population abundance and size structure,and community composition. Abundance and composi-tion of terrestrial arthropods also were measured.

Correlation and univariate regression analyses arebeing used to determine the relationship of plant andinsect variables with depth to groundwater, surface flowfrequency, and soil moisture. Multiple regression anal-ysis is used to determine whether the vegetation metricsvary with geomorphology, site elevation, and site hydro-logy. This allows for a determination of whether the IBIwill require stratification by geomorphic reach type and/or site elevation. Threshold values, above or belowwhich vegetation metrics change sharply, or which spe-cific plant associations do not occur, are identified.

An economic model of costs and benefits asso-ciated with restoring riparian areas is being constructed.Economic activities relating to instream and consumptiveuses of water, and estimates of local income related todiffering water uses have been identified. The physicallocation and land ownership patterns along the SouthFork Kern have been documented, giving background tothe region’s history, describing the population centers,providing an economic setting, and outlining both thesurface water and groundwater users. A Kern River Pre-serve visitor’s survey was implemented and will allowfor an estimation of the local economic impacts of visita-tion to the riparian preserve. A parallel study is underwayfor the San Pedro. Both surveys assess visitor economicbenefits from riparian area protection.

California groundwater and surface water law andthe role of the Endangered Species Act (ESA) in man-aging rivers are being studied. A lawsuit filed by TheSouthwest Center for Biological Diversity that chal-lenges, under the ESA, the administration of waterflowfrom Lake Isabella is being examined.



Development of an Urban Watershed Rehabilitation Method UsingStakeholder Feedback To Direct Investigation and Restoration PlanningMarty D. Matlock 1, Charles D. Samuelson 2, William H. Neill 3, Tarla Rai Peterson 4, Ann L. Kenimer 5, and Guy D. Whitten 6

1Department of Agricultural Engineering, 2Department of Psychology, 3Department of Wildlife and FisheriesSciences, 4Department of Speech Communication, 5Department of Agricultural Engineering, 6Department ofPolitical Science, Institute for Science, Technology and Public Policy, George Bush School of Governmentand Public Service, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX

This project has developed and is testing a meth-od for restoring the ecological integrity of urban water-sheds that integrates ecology, engineering, and socialscience. Research is being conducted on two streamsin the San Antonio, TX, metropolitan area. Researchquestions include: (1) Can a risk-based watershedmodel linked with two ecoindicators in a regressiveecological risk assessment for a complex watershedquantify the uncertainty associated with ecosystemrehabilitation? (2) Will stakeholders’ understanding ofnonpoint source pollution issues, ability to use scientif-ic information about watershed management strategies,and communication competence improve as a result ofa collaborative learning (CL) intervention? A water-shed model of ecological risk assessment is being de-veloped. Models of stakeholder knowledge levels andenvironmental attitudes also are being developed.

A watershed model linked with an instream mo-del has been developed to evaluate and optimize eco-system management strategies. CL is being used tostructure and facilitate stakeholder group activitiesamong large, heterogeneous groups affiliated with theSalado and Leon Creek Watersheds in San Antonio.Two integrated ecoindicators are being used to eval-uate and communicate risk to the stakeholder groups.

This risk-based approach is used to shape dis-cussions between stakeholders and scientists in an iter-ative process that results in an informed and stake-holder-driven action plan for watershed rehabilitation.Social dilemma/game-theoretic analysis will be used todevelop models of compliance under different assump-tions about time and other actors’ behavior. A sim-ulation of the interactive effects of human and non-human factors on watershed nutrient levels will bedeveloped.

A public opinion survey was designed to obtaindetailed measures of public opinion on general andspecific environmental issues and on local watershedissues among others, and to identify potential partici-pants in the stakeholder recruitment process. Thesurvey was administered to 1,017 randomly selectedresidents of Bexar County, TX. These data currentlyare being analyzed. The issues of representation and

implementation are being examined (e.g., issues of ef-ficacy, trust, participation, and optimism).

In November 1999, through December 2000, theproject team held monthly meetings with the Saladoand Leon Creek stakeholder groups. Potential partici-pants were identified in a number of ways, includingthe public opinion survey and face-to-face contact withcommunity groups. A snowball technique was used foradditional recruitment. Three surveys—a pretest, fol-lowup, and posttest—were given to each of the stake-holder groups. These survey data allow for direct com-parisons between the large sample telephone survey ofBexar County residents and the stakeholder groupsparticipating in the CL meetings.

The statistical analysis of survey data will be con-ducted during 2001 to assess the effectiveness of theCL program in meeting project objectives. Followupinterviews with stakeholder group members will beconducted in 2001 as well. Data from individual inter-views with stakeholders and CL workshops will beanalyzed to identify critical social processes and com-munication practices.

Field investigations of ecological processes wereinitiated in August 1999. Two sites were selected ontwo streams (one upstream and one downstream) flow-ing through San Antonio. Periphyton response to nu-trient loading (nitrogen and phosphorus) was measuredin situ using the Matlock Periphytometer. The survival,growth, and metabolic capacity of bluegill acclima-tized in ambient stream water also were measured ateach of the sites. The data currently are being anal-yzed, and field investigations will continue in 2001.

Geographic data have been compiled from a vari-ety of sources (U.S. Geological Survey, Texas NaturalResource Conservation Commission [TNRCC], Envi-ronmental Protection Agency, National Aeronauticsand Space Administration) to develop input data filesfor the Better Assessment Science Integration Pointand Nonpoint Sources-Hydrological Simulation Pro-gram-Fortran (BASINS-HSPF) modeling program.Calibrating BASINS-HSPF in Salado and Leon Creekshas been completed in collaboration with the San An-tonio River Authority and TNRCC.



Combining Economic and Ecological Indicators To Prioritize Wetlands Restoration Projects Within a Spatial GIS FrameworkJames J. Opaluch 1, Marisa J. Mazzotta 1, Peter August 2, Robert Johnston 1, and Frank Golet 2

1Department of Environmental and Natural Resource Economics, 2Department of Natural Resources Science,University of Rhode Island, Kingston, RI

Restoration and rehabilitation of damaged or de-graded ecosystems is an important component of manyof today’s environmental and natural resource manage-ment strategies. It not only is important to protect andpreserve watershed ecosystems, but also to restore de-graded components so that the functioning of the entiresystem is maintained or improved. This project focuseson developing methods for setting priorities for wet-lands restoration projects and applying the tool to res-toration of coastal wetlands. The research will addressthree issues related to valuing wetlands: (1) spatialaspects of value, (2) cost-effective methodologies forvaluation, and (3) transferability of methods and val-ues. The research employs a three-phased approach toprovide sequential links from physical wetlands fea-tures, to functions provided by the wetlands, to valuesof those functions, and ultimately, to setting prioritiesfor alternative restoration projects.

Phase I develops the methodology of the study,and provides initial steps in identifying and definingindicators. This phase includes development of theconceptual linkages between indicators, indices, andvaluation methods; linking indicators with benefitstransfer methods; coordinating the approach with datacollection efforts by the Rhode Island Department ofEnvironmental Management; and identifying an initialset of indicators to serve as a starting point for the fieldresearch, included in Phase II.

Phase II develops and implements two surveys—a survey of technical experts, and a survey of the gen-eral public. The survey of technical experts identifies

specific features that contribute to the potential for thewetland to provide important functions. For example,open water and tidal creeks can contribute to a wet-land’s potential for fish and bird habitat. The generalpublic survey elicits public values for important wetlandfunctions.

Phase III uses the methods and data developed inPhases I and II to develop and implement the geo-graphic information system-based tool for identifyingwetland priorities based on indicators of social andeconomic values. It also will test the transferability ofthe method to other sites by applying results to ad-ditional locations in Rhode Island and in another state.

To date, the project has focused on habitat func-tions of wetlands, as they appear to be the principalfunction of Rhode Island coastal wetlands. The re-search group is in the process of completing focusgroup pretests that are critical to development of thepublic survey. Simultaneously, meetings have beenheld with wetland experts to learn about importantwetland issues and to develop a method for elicitingexpert opinion on the linkage between physical fea-tures and habitat quality for the various species groups.

When complete, the approach will provide inputinto prioritizing wetlands restoration programs. Theresearch group is working closely with the state’sinteragency restoration team, which is in the process ofdeveloping tools to prioritize restoration actions. Theresearch project’s efforts have been designed to becomplementary—in particular, to provide public inputthat is needed by the state.



Integrating Science and Technology To Support Stream NaturalizationBruce L. Rhoads, David Wilson, Edwin E. Herricks, Marcelo Garcia, and Rebecca WadeUniversity of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL

Recent initiatives by federal agencies, includingthe Environmental Protection Agency, have supporteda move toward integrated watershed management thatemphasizes community-level decisionmaking based onsound science. The concept of stream naturalization,which seeks to establish sustainable, morphologicallyand hydraulically varied, yet dynamically stable fluvialsystems that are capable of supporting healthy, biolog-ically diverse aquatic ecosystems, is consistent withthis new perspective. Naturalization integrates biolog-ical, physical, and social science within a local deci-sionmaking context over multiple temporal and spatialscales.

This research project seeks to develop an inte-grated scientific and technological framework for streamnaturalization. Empirical and modeling aspects of theresearch are focusing on case studies of stream natural-ization in two small watersheds in the Chicago metro-politan area. These case studies highlight the scientificand technological challenges associated with natural-ized stream-channel designs as well as the vital role ofsocial interaction and community perceptions in thenaturalization process.

The research design combines social analysis,both of community-based environmental visions and ofdecisionmaking about stream naturalization, with a sci-entific/technical analysis aimed at generating a pre-dictive understanding of, and technical basis for, streamnaturalization. The social methodology includes anal-ysis of the historical development of the environmentalvision within each community, and case-study investi-gations of current components of this vision and therole of scientific information in sustaining this vision.Scientific/technical research is developing and integrating

engineering-based modeling of stream dynamics withgeomorphological analysis of stream processes andecological analysis of physical habitat and fish pop-ulation dynamics.

The two study sites for this project are the WestFork of the North Branch of the Chicago River, North-brook, IL, and Poplar Creek, Elgin, IL. Results of thesocial analysis in Northbrook highlight some tensionsassociated with the implementation of the concept ofnaturalization. These tensions stem from the dichoto-my between stakeholder values and desires and “ex-pert” sense of best usage and vision. Naturalizationcenters on the implementation of pool-riffle sequenceswithin a section of the North Branch in downtownNorthbrook. The research team has assisted local deci-sionmakers with project design. The pool-riffle struc-tures are based on ecogeomorphological principles andhave been tested via hydraulic modeling.

Social analysis in Elgin is examining discoursesof environmental resource provision. Current plans callfor a channelized section of Poplar Creek to be re-meandered and its floodplain restored to presettlementconditions. The creek is viewed as a natural resourcefor community use. Social analysis is examining thevalues, ideologies and languages that underlie the pro-vision of this resource.

Geomorphological research has focused on thepattern and movement of large woody debris in thecreek and characterizing the influence of this debris onpatterns of three-dimensional flow and channel erosionand deposition in meander bends. This analysis pro-vides a framework for ecological studies of fish andmacroinvertebrate habitat and for modeling-based as-sessments of stream remeandering.



Selection of Wetland Restoration Sites in Rural Watersheds To Improve Water Quality: Integrating Ecological and Economic ApproachesCurtis J. Richardson, Randall A. Kramer, and Neal E. FlanaganNicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC

The primary objective of this study is to developa procedure for configuring mosaics of restored wet-lands on the landscape to yield the greatest positivecumulative effect on watershed-level water qualitygiven a set of ecological, economic, and political con-straints. This study focuses on the development of adecision support system (DSS) to assist land managersin the site locations of restored wetlands with theobjective of maximizing watershed-level water qualityimprovement.

The DSS will rely upon a water quality modelthat examines the watershed-level water quality impactof restoring wetland areas. An economic model alsowill be included in the DSS, which assesses the will-ingness of landowners to participate in wetland resto-ration programs based on their socioeconomic char-acteristics, various aspects of the program, and otherfactors that affect land-use decisions. Economic datafor use in the DSS were collected through a survey ofroughly 500 landowners/operators in selected areas ofNorth Carolina.

The survey was developed through an extensiveperiod of literature reviews, collecting background in-formation, and conducting focus groups. It used a con-joint analysis methodology to assess the preferences oflandowners for wetland restoration programs with dif-ferent options. Various socioeconomic and land-use in-formation also was collected. Soil, hydrology, and landcover data were used to identify potential wetland res-toration sites.

A classification and regression tree (CART) mod-el was used to relate water quality and watershed char-acteristics at sites monitored by the U.S. GeologicalSurvey National Water Quality Assessment Project. Adynamic nonpoint source water quality model wasused to explore alternative restoration scenarios, and

site-level data at a coastal wetland restoration site wereused to validate the regional simulation models.

Survey administration commenced in November2000, and was completed in January 2001. Survey dataare being analyzed through statistical and econometricmethods to develop a model predicting the partici-pation decisions of landowners/operators. Preliminarysurvey results indicate that landowners generally fa-vored restoration programs that allowed for shorter-term contracts (10–15 years), that allowed them tolease land for undeveloped recreational use, and thatwere administered by state agencies.

The ecological portion of this study examined therelationship between wetlands and water quality atlocal, watershed, and regional spatial scales. Prelim-inary statistical models utilizing both CART and dis-criminant analysis models classified 300 samples intoone of three water quality categories using watershedcharacteristics and hydrologic flux. The model pre-dictions were correct for 80 percent of the sample anal-yses.

The key findings from these studies will be in-strumental in determining which sites have the highestpotential for wetland restoration success in terms ofwater quality improvement on the landscape. Most im-portant are findings concerning the reasons for andwillingness of landowners to participate in programsto convert current agriculture lands into restored wet-lands. After survey data have been analyzed, they willbe integrated into the ecological modeling effort tobuild the DSS. The DSS will combine both biophysicaldata on the water quality impacts of wetland restora-tion and socioeconomic data, such as the willingnessof landowners to participate in various restorationscenarios, relevant demographic information, and theirland-use preferences.



When Do Stakeholder Negotiations Work? A Multiple Lens Analysis of Watershed Restorations in California and WashingtonPaul Sabatier, William Leach, and Neil PelkeyDepartment of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis, CA

This paper reports some preliminary results fromthe Watershed Partnership Project at the University ofCalifornia at Davis. The project uses a database con-sisting of random samples of approximately 60 water-shed partnerships in California and Washington. Ineach case, 3–5 diverse participants are interviewed,mail surveys are sent to all participants and some know-ledgeable outsiders, and relevant documents are coded.This results in about 350 variables per case.

The project seeks to: (1) measure partnership suc-cess on five different dimensions, and then (2) explainvariation in success using three different conceptualframeworks: Transaction Costs Economics, Ostrom’sInstitutional Analysis and Deliberation Framework,and a version of the Advocacy Coalition Frameworkdeveloped by Sabatier and Jenkins-Smith that has beenexpanded to include Alternative Dispute Resolution(Bingham, Carpenter).

Preliminary results from an analysis of 30 casesreveals that development of trust within the partnershipusually is the most important factor explaining mostsuccess measures. It also was found that a certain age(usually around 40 months) is necessary for partnershipsuccess, but that success does not necessarily increasewith age above that threshold.

Members’ satisfaction with the quality and ac-cessibility of technical information also tends to be cor-related with several dimensions of success. Conversely,the size of a partnerships’ budget, whether it has a paidcoordinator, and the extent of belief conflict within thepartnership do not appear to be consistently associatedwith success measures. The findings of this researchproject should, however, be viewed with great cautionuntil the number of cases analyzed can be increased toapproximately 50 (it is hoped to accomplish this by thetime of the Progress Review).



Integrating Models of Citizens’ Perceptions, Metal Contaminants, and Wetlands Restoration in an Urbanizing WatershedRobert K. Tucker 1, George S. Hawkins 1, Peter R. Jaffe 2, Kerry Kirk Pflugh 3, and Branden B. Johnson 3

1Stony Brook-Millstone Watershed Association, Pennington, NJ; 2Princeton University, Princeton, NJ;3Division of Science, Research, and Technology, New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection,Trenton, NJ

The overall goal of this project is to use the scien-tific information from this research to increase publicunderstanding and support for the vital role wetlandsplay in the integrity of watersheds. The approach in-volves scientific investigations of metals interactionsin wetlands, education, and social science assessmentof the outreach efforts. One focus of this research isnonpoint source pollution, particularly toxic metal im-pacts on wetland function and water quality.

The nonpoint contamination is closely related tothe degree of development and intensity of human ac-tivity within the watershed. This has been documentedin a comprehensive assessment and characterization ofone of the subwatersheds, Beden Brook. Data on waterquality, threatened and endangered species, invasivespecies, contaminated sites, land use and management,and area geology and demographics are included.

Research conducted by investigators at PrincetonUniversity will provide detailed information on metalsbehavior in the oxygen-depleted soils of wetlands, par-ticularly as affected by the roots of plants. The Univer-sity has made significant progress with electrochemicaltechniques to measure concentration profiles of elec-tron acceptors and trace metals in pore water and ondeveloping the model to simulate trace metal dynamicsin wetland sediments. Figures 1a, 1b, and 1c illustratethe simulated profiles in wetland sediments of the keyelectron acceptors, their corresponding reduced spe-cies, ammonia, and arsenic. Arsenic is used to illus-trate the effect that the wetland rhizosphere has on thespeciation of a metalloid of concern in the environ-ment.

New Jersey Department of Environmental Protec-tion social scientists have interviewed selected expertson wetlands from federal and state government, aca-demic, consulting, and nonprofit sectors for their at-titudes about wetlands. They also have started con-ducting a survey of citizens on their attitudes about

wetlands. All experts thought preservation of existingwetlands was by far the best management approach,although they differed fiercely on how to prevent wet-lands development.

Information from this research already has playeda key role for local citizens in opposing such environ-mentally harmful projects as a sewer extension into alargely undeveloped and environmentally sensitivearea, and in persuading the Governor of New Jersey tomandate a comprehensive environmental impact studyof a proposed road adjacent to wetlands along the Mill-stone River.

A model stream protection ordinance for areamunicipalities has been drafted, and environmentallyprotective “river friendly” strategies for residents, golfcourses, and other businesses have been developed.Venues for dissemination of information include theNatural Lands Network, which the Stoney Brook-Mill-stone Watershed Association helped organize. TheNetwork meets with 40 local land trusts, environmen-tal commissions, and planning board members.

A Watershed Institute also has been formed toprovide support and assistance to growing watershedassociations—this research group is working with theNew Jersey Council of Watershed Associations tounify these associations and advocate for policies thatprotect water quality and natural resources. On January29–30, 2001, this research group sponsored a seminarat the Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University,for local municipal officials. The seminar was titled“Preserving This Place Called Home,” and included in-formation on wetlands protection.

Next steps include field measurements of metalsand intensive characterization of another of the sub-watersheds, Rocky Brook, in the headwaters area ofthe Millstone River. Additional educational efforts andsurveys of the effectiveness of the educational out-reach will be conducted.



Figure 1a. Figure 1b.

Figure 1c.

Figures 1a, 1b, and 1c. Simulated concentration profiles in wetland sediments. Figure 1a: Electron acceptors; Figure 1b: Reduced species; and Figure 1c: Arsenic. Figure 1c shows the effect of roots on the simulatedarsenic profiles (D = no roots, W = roots that penetrate 8 cm into the sediments, which are the sameconditions as for Figures 1a and 1b).



Changes in River-Land Uses and Management: Implications for Salmonid Habitat Restoration in the Lower Cedar River, WashingtonRobert C. Wissmar 1, Thomas M. Leschine 2, Ray Timm 1, David Fluharty 2, and John Small 3

1School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, 2School of Marine Affairs, University of Washington, Seattle, WA;3King County Department of Natural Resources, Seattle, WA

This joint societal-ecological research project iselucidating how the distribution of human developmentand conflicts affect salmonid habitat restoration effortsin the Lower Cedar River Basin, and what restorationefforts make riverine ecosystems and habitats moreresilient to human influence. Any biodiversity in thesystem is beneficial, even if it is short lived, function-ally. Also, approaches to increasing longevity are es-sential given restoration costs.

The goal is to develop societal-ecological ap-proaches that can be applied to restoration initiativesand conflicts ranging from human actions that alterlocal habitats to growth management policies that in-fluence ecosystem functions at larger geographic scales(e.g., connectivity between habitats, fish migrations).Humans today and historically have modified the river(e.g., flow regulation-diversion and channel-confiningstructures), resulting in unnatural channel forming pro-cesses that homogenize habitats. These actions andother uses have caused the Cedar River and floodplainsto lose habitat biodiversity and to be unavailable to fishand wildlife.

Contemporary and historic changes must be ac-counted for in restoration planning. Conflicts betweenhuman development and salmonid habitat restoration

are very common due to direct competition for landand water resources. Problems arise when restorationof habitats in river channels depend on existing man-dates (Endangered Species Act listings) that conflictwith provisions for reducing impacts of flood hazardson human activities. Other problems arise when resto-ration activities within the basin are based on an op-portunistic model. For instance, where resources areavailable for specific actions (e.g., habitat mitigation),there is a higher likelihood of restoration taking place.Together these issues indicate the need to bring com-prehensive, risk-based approaches to restoration plan-ning.

The research group currently is using a geogra-phic information system-based approach to identifyareas where human influences most compromise thefunctional ability of current and potential restorationsites. Some research questions include: (1) How cancontemporary habitat restoration best compensate forthe heterogeneity that has been lost? (2) How suc-cessful are restoration projects that take advantage ofopportunities offered by other management programs?(3) What approaches provide effective ways of resolv-ing conflicts between human development and salm-onid habitat restoration?

Section 3.

Projects Initiated With Fiscal Year 1997 Support



Community Values and the Long-Term Ecological Integrity of Rapidly Urbanizing WatershedsM. Bruce Beck 1, A.K. Parker 1, T.C. Rasmussen 1, B.C. Patten 2, K.G. Porter 2, B.G. Norton 3, and A. Steinemann 3

1Warnell School of Forest Resources, 2Institute of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA; 3School ofPublic Policy and College of Architecture, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA

This research project seeks to integrate ecologi-cal, hydrological, and social/policy sciences in a studyof a rapidly urbanizing watershed (Lake Lanier, GA),where preservation of long-term ecological integrity isperceived as being at stake. More speifically, the goalsare to: (1) develop a concept of environmental deci-sionmaking in which science-based models are respon-sive to identified community values, as they evolve inboth the short and long term; (2) develop and apply aprocedure for identifying those scientific unknownscrucial to the “reachability” of the community’s de-sired/feared environmental futures; and (3) improveunderstanding of basic aspects of lake ecosystem be-havior, with special reference to the roles of the micro-bial foodweb, sediment-nutrient interactions, and geo-chemistry.

There are six steps involved in the overall pro-cedure of environmental decisionmaking. These stepsideally would be implemented in the following se-quence: (1) elicitation and elaboration of stakeholderconcerns for the future; (2) development of the math-ematical model cast in terms (state variables) compat-ible with these concerns; (3) computational analysis oftarget futures; (4) communication to stakeholders ofplausibility (implausibility) of target futures; (5) iden-tification of key scientific unknowns upon which plau-sibility hinges, and specification of experimental stud-ies designed to reduce these uncertainties; and (6) entryinto a second iteration of the sequence, from (1) adapt-ed in the light of (4). Progress can be reported accord-ing to the logic of this procedure.

Thus, this research group has experimented withtwo instruments (a survey and a participatory “Fore-sight” Workshop) designed to elicit stakeholder hopesand fears for the longer term target futures (step [1]),with varying degrees of success. In general, the surveyrevealed an extremely high concern for the well-beingof Lanier, and a possibly counterintuitively yet greaterconcern for the longer term, as opposed to the shorterterm, future—a form of “reverse time preference.”There clearly was a tendency for respondents to bemost troubled by threats over which they perceivedthey (and their cohorts) had least control. The Fore-sight Workshop appears to have proved to be the moresuccessful instrument in anchoring comunity/stake-holder concerns to the quantitative scales attaching to

the state variables of these models (step [2]). One ofthese, a foodweb model incorporating the microbialloop hypothesis of Pomeroy, has been designed ex-pressly for the purpose of analyzing the reachability ofthe so-derived futures (step [3]).

Another model, the Generalized Lake Lanier Eco-system Model, has been constructed to serve the pur-pose of communicating scientific concepts to a (sci-entifically) lay audience (step [4]), wherein the issue ofquality assurance—given the notion of “models aslanguages”—also can be addressed, as an importantquestion of research in its own right. To identify fromthe foodweb model the key scientific unknowns (step[5]), computational and methodological extensions ofthe so-called Regionalized Sensitivity Analysis havebeen explored, specifically the multivariate procedureof Tree Structured Density Estimation.

On the basis of these computational studies and,more importantly, from intensive field work on man-ipulating a small pond system, this research group hascome to the view that the classical paradigm of Pcycling (see Figure 1) does not apply to the case ofPiedmont impoundments with iron-rich sediments. Inresponse to clearly and strongly expressed stakeholderconcerns (from step [1]), a significant portion of theresearch under step (5) has been devoted to imple-menting field work on the pond system intended toprovide a qualitative conceptual model of the propa-gation and fate of pathogens in a water-watershed sys-tem.

Within the scope of the present project, it seemsunlikely that the features of this conceptual model canbe given more quantitative expression. However, de-velopment and preliminary testing of a biogeochemicalimpoundment model have been completed. This modelcombines fairly detailed accounts of the carbonate-pHand Fe-sediment subsystems with the more conven-tional nutrient (C, N, P)-phytoplankton subsystem toexplore the behavior of the vertical dissolved oxygen(DO) profile and sediment-water interactions of Lanier.In the light of what may have to be a revised view ofP cycling in Piedmont impoundments, this researchgroup is especially interested in understanding thescope for P being cleaved from Fe under substantial,transient, phytoplankton-induced excursions in DO andpH conditions.



Figure 1. The phosphorus cycling program in lakes is based on data from systems in northern temperate regions. Phosphorussorbs to iron-rich sediments from tributaries and runoff to form particulate inorganic phosphorus (PIP). Anoxicrespiration in the hypolimnion of north-temperate lakes creates strongly reducing conditions that liberate dissolvedinorganic phosphorus (DIP) from settling particulates. Hypolimnetic DIP steadily increases during summerstratification as phosphorus is liberated, and is mixed throughout the water column at fall overturn. This paradigmfails to explain phosphorus cycling in Southeastern Piedmont lakes. No increase in DIP is found in the anoxichypolimnion during summer stratification, nor is an increase in DIP observed during fall overturn in SoutheasternPiedmont lakes. It is hypothesized that the conventional paradigm is not appropriate in iron-rich SoutheasternPiedmont systems because: (1) iron-oxide sorption reduces the bioavailability of DIP, and (2) the abundance ofoxidized iron prevents DIP accumulation in the anoxic hypolimnion.



Connecting Ecological and Social Systems:Watershed Research Relating Ecosystem Structureand Function to Human Values and Socioeconomic BehaviorsGaboury Benoit, S. Kellert, M. Ashton, P. Barten, L. Bennett, D. Skelly, and S. AnisfeldYale Environmental Studies, New Haven, CT

The goal of this research project is to elucidateways in which ecological and social systems shapeeach other, and to understand the mechanisms bywhich the structure and function of natural systemsinfluence, and in turn are influenced by, human valuesand socioeconomic behaviors. In the current phase ofthe research, a paired watershed approach was used,involving the collection of original data from 18 sub-watersheds within the basin formed by the three rivers(Qunnipiac, West, Mill) entering New Haven Harbor,CT.

The aggregated area of the subwatersheds studiedtotaled more than 8,000 ha and included the homes of18,000 people. Subwatersheds were selected from trib-utaries of the three major rivers and range in size from113–826 ha and are drained by low-order streams (firstor second). Watersheds were chosen to include a broadrange of human population density, from rural to ur-ban.

Within each subwatershed, teams of researchersmeasured hydrological, chemical, and biological at-tributes (39 variables) of the streams and the surround-ing uplands. Direct observation and responses to sur-veys of individual watershed residents also were usedto quantify the values, beliefs, and behaviors of the hu-man residents of each subwatershed. Human responsesincluded a total of 25 variables collected by direct ob-servation (household quality and neighborhood qualitymeasured on an ordinal scale, number of householdsper hectare), and in the form of two surveys conductedin each subwatershed. Most answers were used to cal-culate a set of 15 indices that previously were devel-oped. Responses from a mail survey in each subwater-shed were used to calculate valuations of water quality,appearance, biological diversity, and the willingness topay for conservation of these values. Finally, previ-ously collected information on land use and land cover(34 mutually exclusive categories) was used withineach subwatershed to quantify landscape patterns.

Principal components analysis (PCA) was used toreduce the dimensionality of each data set. The numberof components was determined using the broken-stickmethod in each case. Canonical correlation analyseswere used to evaluate the null hypothesis that there isno linear relationship between variables within the twomultivariate data sets. Three such tests were conductedto evaluate the relationships between biophysical andsocial data sets (p > 0.05), biophysical and landscapedata sets (p < 0.01), and between social and landscapedata sets (p < 0.01).

PCA results show strong correlations betweenlandscape and biophysical variation and between land-scape and social variation. Thus, these data are con-sistent with the hypothesis that human beliefs, atti-tudes, and values are associated with the structure ofthe landscapes we live in, and in turn, with the compo-sition and functioning of the ecosystems those land-scapes represent. The original conceptual model con-sisted of three components (ecosystem health, humanenvironmental values, and socioeconomic benefits)linked to each other by direct, but unknown, feedbackprocesses.

Results to date suggest a different set of linkages(see Figure 1), with ecosystem health and human envi-ronmental values connected through the intermediaryof landscape structure. Interestingly, these associationsseem not to be strong functions of differences inwealth or education among people living in the subwa-tersheds. Further statistical tests (factor analysis) indi-cated that the relationship between social and biophys-ical variables was manifest in certain subwatershedsmore than others, and this result corroborated elementsof the hypothesized link between human values andecosystem structure and function.

Additional funding is being sought for the nextphase of this research. The plan is to conduct large-scale field experiments to probe causal mechanisms forcorrelations revealed to date.



Ecosystem Health

Biodiversity Biomass Water quality

Hydrologic regulation

Human Environmental Values

Aesthetic Dominionistic Humanistic Naturalistic Negativistic Moralistic Scientific Symbolic

Utilitarian

Landscape Factors Vegetative cover Road network Highways Forested land Waterways Commercial/Industrial Residential Cropland

Figure 1. Results of this project to date suggest that ecosystem health and human environmental values are connected throughthe intermediate of landscape structure.



Social and Ecological Transferability of Integrated Ecological Assessment ModelsLinda A. Deegan 1, James Kremer 2, and Thomas Webler 3

1Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, MA; 2Department of Marine Sciences, University ofConnecticut, Groton, CT; 3Social and Environmental Research Institute, Leverett, MA

The goals and objectives of this research projectare to: (1) create a model of broad generality that linksland-use patterns and nitrogen loading to ecologicallyimportant and socially relevant endpoints of waterquality, eelgrass habitat, and fish diversity and abun-dance; (2) measure estuarine fish habitat and com-munity structure throughout a range of estuaries insoutheastern New England, and develop empirical re-lationships of biotic integrity and habitat quality; and(3) investigate perceptions of ecological models andmodeling science by town planners, with the objectiveof determining the best and most efficient way to en-courage scientifically aware decisions at the crucial,local level of land-use debate.

The team is working to develop an estuarine eco-system response model (Changing Land Use and Es-tuaries [CLUE]) that will aid in understanding howseveral biological and physical factors influence therange of ecological responses to nutrient inputs. Thegoal is to develop a model that is more readily trans-ferred to other systems, and thus amenable to man-agement applications when extensive and expensivescientific studies are unavailable or not feasible. Oneunique aspect of the output is its probabilistic char-acter, an important and usually underemphasized as-pect that planners should understand if they are tomake realistic, scientifically informed decisions. Datato build and test the model derive from studies of waterquality, fish habitat, and community structure in 16 es-tuaries of Buzzards Bay and Cape Cod, MA, sampledfrom 1993–1999, and eight estuaries of south coastalRhode Island and Connecticut.

The social science has focused on three majorcomponents of estuarine science in the community:(1) attitudes and beliefs about ecosystem models amonglocal governmental officials in small towns in southernNew England; (2) performance of a participatory mod-eling tool (MANAGE) as applied in Jamestown, RI, bythe cooperative extension service of the University ofRhode Island; and (3) characterization of views onecosystems models and their application in local deci-sionmaking by modelers and outreach professionals insouthern New England.

In several submitted manuscripts, this researchgroup has documented large, eutrophication-drivenchanges in the fish community and fish habitat struc-ture during the past decade in 24 estuaries of south-eastern Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut.It was shown that the biotic integrity of many of these

estuaries has been severely degraded from historicallevels over a relatively short time interval (1–5 years)(see Figure 1). The estuarine biotic integrity (EBI)index that was developed has been shown to havebroad applicability within the southern New Englandecoregion, and could be a valuable monitoring tool toassess the recovery of ecosystem function after eutro-phication remediation.

Juvenile fish community characteristics and fishabundance in the studied estuaries are strongly influ-enced by the integrity and sustainability of eelgrass(Zostera marina) habitat. Healthy eelgrass beds arenecessary to sustain estuarine carrying capacity andbiodiversity. In those communities bordering estuarieswith extant eelgrass beds, land-use decisions can jeop-ardize the integrity of this essential fish habitat. TheCLUE model of nitrogen loading and ecosystem re-sponse will be a useful land-use planning tool. Im-proved understanding of the use and perceptions ofecological models by planners will facilitate design ofpresentation styles and formats by scientists to pro-mote informed land-use decisionmaking at the locallevel.

Recent results show that the inherent opticalproperties and the contribution of colored dissolved or-ganic matter and nonpigment particles to water clarityalso may be important in controlling estuarine plantand algal production. Previous work has shown veryunsatisfactory relationships between chlorophyll andthe diffuse attenuation coefficient in these coastal wa-ters, and resolution of this issue is a sine qua non forthe modeling effort.

This research group also has found a striking mis-match between local policymakers’ desires for modelsto reveal consequences of development on the scale ofa single building lot and scientists’ admonishments ofusing models to justify decisions at this level. Mod-elers perceive the endpoints local decisionmakers re-quest as improper uses of models.

This research group will integrate the EBI indexinto the CLUE ecosystem response model and test itsusefulness in new estuarine settings. Field data from1998–2000 will be used to formulate the bathymetricand watershed characteristics that force the model, andto display observed estuarine data against which toevaluate model goodness-of-fit in as many as 13 es-tuaries. It is anticipated that the Jamestown, RI, studywill be completed this spring, and analysis of resultswill be written.



Figure 1. Estuarine biotic integrity (EBI) index measurements averaged over sampling sites in Buttermilk Bay (four sites) andWaquoit Bay (five sites), 1988-1999. Dark gray bars indicate years in which eelgrass was present in at least twosites in Buttermilk Bay and three sites in Waquoit Bay. Light gray bars indicate the absence of eelgrass in any sites.



From Landscapes to Waterscapes: An Integrating Framework for Urbanizing WatershedsP. Diplas 1, E.F. Benfield 2, D.J. Bosch 3, W.E. Cox 1, R. Dymond 1, D.F. Kibler 1, V.K. Lohani 4, S. Mostaghimi 5, P.S. Nagarkatti 2, D.J. Orth 6, L.A. Shabman 3, and K. Stephenson 3

1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2Department of Biology, 3Department of Agriculturaland Applied Economics, 4Department of Engineering Fundamentals, 5Department of Biological SystemsEngineering, 6Department of Fisheries and Wildlife Sciences, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and StateUniversity, Blacksburg, VA

Urbanization, farming, and other types of land-use change activities can significantly alter storm hy-drographs and sediment erosion rates within a water-shed. These effects can cause more frequent floodingand increased pollutant loading, which in turn mightresult in the degradation of the physical and biologicalintegrity of streams and other aquatic ecosystems.Regardless of these problems, watershed developmentappears inevitable.

The central issue, therefore, is how to reconciledevelopment with acceptable environmental quality atan affordable price. The overarching goal of this pro-ject is to develop procedures for integrated assessmentof the hydrologic, ecological, and economic conse-quences of alternative landscape scenarios occurringduring the urbanization/suburbanization process.

More specific objectives include: (1) develop-ment of an integrated hydrologic framework for assess-ing the impacts of alternative landscapes on surfaceand subsurface water flows and movement of sedi-ments and pollutants; (2) development of proceduresto predict the response of fish and macroinvertebratecommunities to urbanization-induced changes in waterquantity, water quality, and other biological condi-tions; and (3) identification and assessment of policyand economics consistent with alternative landscapescenarios as well as estimation of the effects of alter-native landscapes on land values and fiscal consequen-ces for local governments. A case study focusing onthe Upper Roanoke River Watershed is employed totest the operation of the integrated framework that cur-rently is under development.

The various components of this research projectare addressed by the following groups: hydrology/hydraulics, biology, economics/policy, and geographicinformation systems/problemsolving environment. Thecomputer models HSPF and MODFLOW are utilizedto determine the changes in the surface and subsurfacerunoff taking place within a subwatershed triggered bya certain amount of development. The first tends torespond more rapidly while the latter, depending on

the local geology, might take many years to reach qua-sisteady-state conditions. It is, therefore, this longertime horizon that needs to be considered when exam-ining the impacts of land-use change.

The output from these models becomes input toRMA-2V, the computer model that was used to sim-ulate the river flow. Usually, a major difference be-tween streams in heavily developed areas compared tothose found in areas of low level of development is interms of channel topography or complexity. Biologistshave identified channel complexity as an importantingredient of stream ecology. New methods have beendevised for modeling the localized flow patterns gen-erated by these topographic features. Spatial metricshave been developed and found to better describe theabundance of stream habitat.

Extensive fish and macroinvertebrate data col-lected from streams representing different size water-sheds indicate that changes in diversity and richness ofspecies are connected with land-use practices. Veg-etation strips along the river significantly reduce theadverse effects of land-use changes within the water-shed. Immunotoxicological tests indicate that fish mayserve as excellent biomarkers for environmental pol-lutants, and therefore may act as warning systems forhuman health hazards.

Four development footprints, which vary fromlow to high density, are used to estimate the effects ofalternative settlement patterns on public service costsand land value estimates, and the concomitant environ-mental consequences. A computer interface that inte-grates hydrological and economic aspects of this studywas developed recently. A Web-based version of thismodel currently is underway. During the remainingpart of the project, the integration of the various com-ponents, as well as issues regarding the interfacesbetween hydraulics and biology, hydrology, and eco-nomics will be examined further. A specific subwater-shed has been selected to apply the entire modelingprocedure for various degrees of urbanization andalternative settlement patterns.



Conversion of Science Into Management Decisions at Lake Tahoe (CA-NV)Charles R. Goldman 1, John E. Reuter 1, S. Geoff Schladow 2, Alan Jassby 1, M. Levant Kavvas 2, Alan C. Heyvaert 1, Theodore J. Swift 1, and Jennifer E. Coker 2

1Department of Environmental Science and Policy, 2Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,University of California, Davis, CA

Deteriorating environmental conditions at LakeTahoe have been documented since the 1960s andinclude loss in transparency of 0.3 m annually, in-creased algal growth at 5 percent per year, changesin biodiversity, increased loading of nutrients andfine sediment, wetland loss, invasion of nonnativebiota, air pollution, and decline in forest health. Datasuggest that if degradation continues, the remarkableclarity of Lake Tahoe will be lost in 30 years. Thisprecipitated the Presidential Forum in 1997, and ne-cessitated a more rapid conversion of basic limnolo-gical studies into management decisions.

To date, long-term data collection and basic re-search have been key to better understanding and man-aging the lake, its surrounding watershed, and airquality. With this grant and related investigations,the primary goal is for science (monitoring, research,and modeling) to assist in the restoration of waterquality and ecosystem health at Lake Tahoe. Reduc-tion in phosphorus and fine-sediment loading is con-sidered critical to reduce the accelerated decline inwater clarity.

The approach can be summarized in a series ofthree questions that need to be understood to achieveeffective management of lake clarity: (1) What arethe sources and relative contributions of nutrientsand fine sediments? (2) How much of a reduction inthis material is needed to attain desired water clarity?(3) How will this reduction be achieved?

A budget has been completed that shows di-rect runoff and atmospheric deposition (AD) as im-portant P sources and highlights the need for addi-tional study. Phosphorus reduction strategies willhave to address multiple sources, including direct run-off, AD, streamflow, and groundwater. The contribu-tion of AD to the N budget clearly dominates. Usingdissolved P to approximate biologically available P

(BAP), the budget shows that BAP is 30-35 percent oftotal P; this is not uncommon. Research to determineP bioavailability and its relation to restoration effortshas been proposed. Sedimentation losses to thebottom of Lake Tahoe are 401.7 MT yr-1 (TN) and52.8 MT yr-1 (TP), and agree with loading estimates.

Watershed mitigation at Lake Tahoe may take15–20 years to complete. Because the lake also has aretention time of decades for nutrients, the direct ef-fect of restoration on lake clarity may not be detectedfor many years. Watershed and lake modeling providestools to overcome this long time lag. To exploremanagement options for loading reduction, a one-dimensional modeling approach has been adopted.The model, DLM, is driven hydrodynamically bydaily inputs of meteorological and streamflow data.Water quality inputs are from streams, surface runoff,groundwater, and atmospheric loading (see Table 1).

The model seeks to predict the distribution ofnutrient concentration, algal concentration, and sus-pended particle concentration. Water clarity, a func-tion of light absorption and scattering, can in turn becalculated from the algal concentration and the sizedistribution and concentration of particles. Intensivedata collection has been initiated to provide suffi-cient calibration and validation data for the opticalpart of the model. Preliminary results from the op-tical component are presented in Figure 1.

Achieving loading reductions requires adaptivemanagement, wherein data are collected to: (1) opti-mize best management practice effectiveness for in-dividual projects, (2) assign project priority based onnutrient/fine sediment sources, (3) provide expecta-tions of a project’s load reduction to be directlycoupled with a clarity model, (4) facilitate timelychanges to project design, and (5) assess success/fail-ure.



Table 1. Summary of loading estimates to Lake Tahoe expressed as metric tons per year.

Total N Total P Dissolved P

Atmospheric deposition 234 (56%) 12.4 (26%) 5.6 (37%)

Stream loading 82 (20%) 13.3 (28%) 2.4 (16%)

Direct runoff 42 (10%) 15.5 (33%) 3 (29%)

Groundwater 60 (14%) 4 (9%) 4 (27%)

Shoreline erosion 1 (<1%) 1.6 (3%) No Data

Total 419 46.8 15.0

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Secc

hi D

epth

Pre

dict

ed, m

35302520151050Secchi Depth Observed, m

Figure 1. Preliminary comparison of predicted Secchi depth transparency to actual field measurements over a wide range of observed values.



An Integrated Ecological and Socioeconomic Approach To Evaluatingand Reducing Agricultural Impacts on Upper Mississippi River WatershedsPrasanna H. Gowda 1, Roger J. Haro 1, and Ted L. Napier 2

1Department of Biology, University of Wisconsin, La Crosse, WI; 2School of Natural Resources, Ohio StateUniversity, Columbus, OH

The objectives of this project are to: (1) use aspatial-process model to predict agricultural dischargesfrom two watersheds in the Upper Mississippi RiverBasin; (2) use the model to evaluate potential waterquality benefits associated with the adoption of alter-native management strategies on these watersheds;(3) develop regional-scale predictive models of eco-system “health,” biodiversity, and sustainability byrelating information on biota and ecosystem functionalprocesses to current and potential landscape compo-sition and structure; and (4) identify factors that affectadoption of conservation production systems amongland owner-operators in the two watersheds. The Low-er Minnesota River Watershed in eastern Minnesotaand the Maquoketa River Watershed in northeasternIowa are being studied. The study recently was ex-tended to include the Big Darby Creek Watershed incentral Ohio for a socioeconomic survey of farm own-ers-operators.

Calibration of the ADAPT model, was performedfor six tributaries of the Lower Minnesota River Wa-tershed. Statistical evaluation of the modeling resultsindicates that model performance is best for subwater-sheds dominated by agricultural land use. Pollutantloadings from the remaining ungauged watershedswere estimated using the calibrated ADAPT model.For this purpose, subwatersheds in the Lower Minneso-ta River Watershed were grouped into four regions:(1) southeastern, (2) western, (3) north-central, and(4) northeastern.

Four alternative agricultural management prac-tices were developed considering developments in theLower Minnesota River Watershed in consultationwith local experts, and evaluated. They were: (1) in-creased adoption of conservation tillage, (2) conversionof crop land to pasture, (3) varying N-fertilizer appli-cation rates, and (4) increased subsurface tile drainage.Of the simulated scenarios, greatest reductions in ni-trate-N loads (up to 7%) were observed in southeasternand western regions of the watershed when N-fertilizerapplication rates were decreased by 20 percent. Croplands in these regions typically are poorly drained. Amajor portion of the land is equipped with subsurfacetile drainage systems. Model results indicate that a75 percent increase in adoption of conservation tillagecan reduce average annual sediment loads by up to an

additional 57 percent. Increased adoption of conserva-tion tillage also is predicted to increase nitrate-N los-ses. The impact of conservation tillage on nitrate-Nlosses offsets reduced losses of nitrate-N due to re-duction in N-fertilizer application rates.

Relationships between landscape and stream hab-itat characteristics and benthic macroinvertebrate com-munity compositions in study watersheds were eval-uated using macroinvertebrate data collected in 1998.Soil erosion potential was estimated for key landscapefeatures using the University Soil Loss Equation. In theMaquoketa River Watershed, stream habitats were ofrelatively low quality and were highly variable acrosssites. Benthic macroinvertebrate-index of biologicalintegrity (BM-IBI) scores were strongly related tostream habitat variables, but were not related to soilerosion potential.

In the Lower Minnesota River Watershed, streamhabitats were of relatively higher quality and wereevenly distributed across sites. BM-IBI scores were notrelated to individual habitat variables, but had a strongrelationship to soil erosion potential. In both studywatersheds, BM-IBI scores increased with increasedrates of soil permeability and conservation tillage;however, percent of row crop agriculture or forestedland had no effect on BM-IBI scores.

Data collected by a socioeconomic survey of landowner-operators were analyzed and compared. Studyfindings revealed that farmers in all of the study wa-tersheds had adopted some form of soil and water con-servation production practices; however, they contin-ued to use production practices that could negate thepositive environmental benefits of the conservationpractices employed at the time of the data collection.Many farmers reported that they did not expect totransfer their farm operations to their children.

At present, this research group is operating on a1-year no-cost extension. Efforts will concentrate on:(1) modeling the Maquoketa River Watershed for wa-ter quality, and developing and evaluating variousalternative management practices; (2) processing, tax-onomic identification, and analysis of the macroinver-tebrate samples collected in 1999; and (3) developingmanuscripts for publication in peer-reviewed journalsand presenting research findings at water resources-related professional conferences.



Nutrient Sources, Transformations, and Budgets at the Watershed Scale in Ipswich River, MassachusettsCharles S. Hopkinson 1, E. Rastetter 1, J.V. Vallino 1, M. Williams 1, and R.G. Pontius 2 1Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, MA; 2Clark University, Worcester, MA

Patterns of land-use change, nutrient and waterexport from land, riverine processing and retention ofnutrients, and the overall mass balance for nutrients inthe Ipswich River Watershed are being studied andmodeled. There have been major changes in land coverand land use since European settlement. For example,agricultural land has decreased by more than 70 per-cent, and urban land now comprises about 32 percentof the total cover.

Land-use change is modeled based on spatialphysical factors, legal constraints, and extrapolationsof quantities of change. Maps of suitability for defor-estation are calibrated with maps of real change be-tween 1971 and 1985 by using multicriteria analysis.The maps of 1971 and 1985 also serve as the basis toextrapolate the quantity of predicted future deforest-ation. The extrapolated quantities and calibrated suit-ability maps predict the location of deforestation from1985–1991. The predicted deforestation maps are val-idated with the map of real forest area of 1991. To pre-dict land-use change into the future, a validated sim-ulation method is used to sketch various scenarios.

The relation between land use and nutrient exportis being evaluated in two ways. At the finest temporalscale, flow-integrated sampling is used in first-orderstreams draining 1–1.5 km2 catchments with homoge-neous land cover: forest, urban, or agricultural. At thebroadest spatial scale, seasonal sampling of 60–80 first-order streams draining 1–1.5 km2 catchments of vary-ing land use is employed. All phosphorus fractions andammonium generally are not related to land use andare present in low concentrations. NO3

- concentrationscan exceed 100 M and are strongly related to thefractional cover in urban and agriculture uses. Dis-solved organic nitrogen and carbon (DON and DOC)are related to the relative amount of wetlands within acatchment, but only during late summer and fall. Totaldissolved nitrogen typically is most related to frac-tional urban and agricultural land uses.

The land-use change model has been coupledwith the land-use/nutrient relationships to evaluatehow stream nutrient loading might increase in the fu-ture with and without laws restricting development.For every decade in the two land-use change scenarios,an empirical nitrate loading relationship is applied toseveral hundred subcatchments. The results are timeseries of spatially distributed surfaces of nitrate load-ing, with corresponding transects of potential nitrateconcentrations for the Ipswich River Stream Network.Simulation results for realistic development scenarios

indicate a doubling in nitrate delivery to the Plum Is-land Sound Estuary from 1991–2101.

The changing landscape and associated socio-economic activities, together with a changing climate,are having a major impact on the watershed hydrology.Precipitation has increased at a rate of 3 mm/year since1933, while streamflow has remained relatively con-stant, even after correcting for increased net diver-sions. The long-term water budget indicates an in-crease in evapotranspiration. The analyses show thatduring the period of 1949–1998, the effect of a chang-ing climate on evapotranspiration is stronger than theeffect of a changing land use. Future water budgetsalso have been predicted using global climate modeloutput and output from the land-use change model. Atthe anticipated rate of urban expansion and climatechange, the Ipswich River Basin will experience seri-ous problems in allocating its water resources withinthe next 100 years. The research group is working withthe Massachusetts Executive Office of EnvironmentalAffairs, the Department of Environmental Protection,the Ipswich River Watershed Association, and the U.S.Geological Survey to develop sound, sustainable wa-tershed management plans for the watershed.

The Hydrologic Simulation Program-Fortran(HSPF) hydrologic and nutrient processing model is be-ing used to examine spatial aspects of nutrient sources,sinks, and export to the coastal zone. An extensive da-tabase has been developed on in-stream nutrient con-centrations that, when coupled to the HSPF model,allows for the identification of critical habitats in theIpswich River Watershed where nutrient retention andprocessing are strongest. First-order streams drainingurban land covers and extensive riverine wetlands arethe primary sites where nutrients (N) are retained.

Finally, a whole watershed budget of nitrogen in-puts, losses, and export has been constructed. Nutrientmass balance indicates that of about 500–1,000 Mt Ninput to the watershed annually, about 64–82 percentis retained on land and 8–16 percent is retained in theriver. In addition to substantial N losses during down-stream transfer, there also are changes in the compo-sition. Inorganic components comprise 58 percent oftotal N in first-order streams, while DON and particu-late N comprise 61 percent of total N at the river mouth.With a predicted doubling of nitrogen inputs to first-order streams over the next 100 years, there is concernabout the uptake capacity of the river system andwhether nutrient loading to the productive Plum IslandEstuarine System will increase concomitantly.



Linking Watershed-Scale Indicators of Changes in Atmospheric Deposition to Regional Response PatternsJ. Kahl 1, I. Fernandez 2, J. Rubin 3, J. Cosby 4, S. Norton 5, L. Rustad 2, 7, D. Mageean 3, and P. Ludwig 6

1Water Research Institute, 2Department of Plant, Soil and Environmental Studies, 3Margaret Chase SmithCenter for Public Policy, 5Department of Geological Sciences, University of Maine, Orono, ME; 4Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; 6International Paper,Inc., Bucksport, ME; 7U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Durham, NH

This research group is determining the patternsand indicators of response of a specific ecosystem re-sponse to experimental watershed acidification. Amajor goal is to scale this knowledge to the regionallevel to determine the extent of acidification and N-saturation in a sensitive subpopulation of high eleva-tion lakes. Concurrently, the Tracking and AnalysisFramework (TAF) model used in the Adirondacks un-der the National Acid Precipitation Program (NAPAP)is being recalibrated to examine the effects of aciddeposition on Maine’s high elevation lakes.

The project activities are hierarchical from site-specific to regional. First, the indicators of and modelpredictions for acidification and N saturation havebeen examined in the whole-watershed N enrichmentexperiment at the Bear Brook Watershed (BBWM),ME. This site is in its 11th year of experimental treat-ment with dry ammonium sulfate. From new and on-going data collection on soils, stream chemistry, andforest growth, the indicators of response at this site arebeing assessed (see Figure 1).

Second, the site-intensive information is beingscaled to the region using data from High ElevationLakes in Maine (HELM) and their watersheds. Theiracidification status is similar to lakes in the Adiron-dacks. The potential for parallel relationships betweensoils and surface water in HELM and BBWM is beingtested.

Third, the HELM data are being used to recal-ibrate the aquatic effects submodel within the TAF topredict changes in acid neutralization capacity, pH,aluminum, and calcium using the Model of Acidifi-cation of Groundwater in Catchments (MODEL). Thepossible effects of increases and decreases in N and Son lake chemistry and the viability of HELM fish pop-ulations are demonstrated.

The whole-watershed experiment at BBWM hasresulted in increases in S and N flux of 2x and 20x,respectively. The process of acidification has alteredbase cation flux and ratios, resulting in a depletion ofCa relative to Mg in streamwater, which is inferred toreflect changes in watershed soils. HELM lakewaterCa is positively and significantly correlated with soilCa saturation. Aluminum concentrations are inverselycorrelated with soil Ca saturation. Nitrate concentra-tions remain high in these lakes in contrast to the re-gional trend, confirming the acidified condition ofthese lakes, but without significant correlations withmeasured watershed N properties.

This information will be used by the Environ-mental Protection Agency to meet the Congressionalmandate of determining the effectiveness of the CleanAir Act Amendments on influencing these trends. Site-specific data from BBWM scaled to the regionalHELM population also will provide a template for therecognition and understanding of possible N saturation,base cation depletion, and indicators of ecosystem re-covery. The recalibration of the TAF for Maine’s highelevation lakes advances the science of integrated nat-ural and social science research by providing the abilityto contrast the effects of acidification in Maine’s lakeswith those of the Adirondacks.

The project is in the final stages of data analysis.The relationships between soil chemistry in the twowatersheds at BBWM and in the HELM lakes arebeing analyzed. The soils data will be related to surfacewater chemistry to develop indicators of response.Deliverables will include papers on the indicators ofrecovery in natural systems, the controls of N chem-istry in high elevation lakes, the experimental responseat BBWM, and the application of the TAF to Maine10 years after the NAPAP.



1980s

ANC

Sulfa

te F

ract

ion

1990s

High Elevation Lakes

1980s

ANC

Sulfa

te F

ract

ion

1990s

High Elevation Lakes

Figure 1. The sulfate fraction is the ratio of sulfate to total anions. The decline in this ratio, especially the loss of the highratios, is an indicator of recovery in these lakes despite the lack of increase in alkalinity (ANC).



REKA, a New Comprehensive Watershed Management SystemC. Gregory Knight 1,2,3, Jeffrey J. Carmichael 2,7, Heejun Chang 1,2, Dimitar Dimitrov 5, Barry M. Evans 3, James M. Hamlett 3,5,6, Todor N . Hristov 5, Vania D. Ioncheva 5, Ivan I. Nikolov 5, Marieta P. Staneva 2,4, and Petko S. Varbanov 5

1Department of Geography, 2Center for Integrated Regional Assessment, 3Environmental Resources ResearchInstitute, 4Penn State Altoona, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; 5Institute of WaterProblems, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria; 6University of Architecture, Civil Engineering andGeodesy, Sofia, Bulgaria; 7University of British Columbia, Vanvcouver, BC, Canada

River Environmental Knowledge and Assess-ment (REKA) is a spatial water quality assessmentsystem designed to answer two questions: (1) If pol-lution control is invested in at one place, where andto what degree will stream quality goals be achieved?and (2) To attain certain quality standards for a givenreach (or reaches) of the basin, what alternative strat-egies could be implemented under various probabil-istic levels of stream flow resulting from climaticvariability and with input from the local community?REKA was developed in the context of the YantraRiver Basin (see Figure 1) in Bulgaria (reka = “riv-er” in Bulgarian) as a transferable geographic infor-mation system (GIS)-based tool to link process anddecision models related to water quality in a compre-hensive framework. The project is a collaboration be-tween the Institute of Water Problems in the Bulgar-ian Academy of Sciences and the EnvironmentalResource Research Institute and the Center for Inte-grated Regional Assessment at the Pennsylvania StateUniversity.

REKA has three subcomponents (see Figure 2).Basin Impacts of Simulated Transport from RuralAreas (BISTRA; bistra = “clean” in Bulgarian) usesa new articulation of the Generalized WatershedLoading Function in the ArcView GIS program. Thiscomponent calculates river loads of nutrients (N, P)and sediments based on weather, soil, topography, andland use, including both nonpoint and point sourcesof pollution.

Validation and Optimization for Decision Anal-ysis (VODA; voda = “water” in Bulgarian) is a sub-stantial revision of the STREAMPLAN model of theInternational Institute of Applied Systems Analysis.This component uses a reduced-form process modelto derive stream hydraulics and pollutant transport

and processing. REKA delivers loadings and watervolume data to VODA by stream reach. VODA thencomputes flows, pollutant concentration, and loads byreaches.

In VODA, the user has several model designchoices. VODA can be used to generate a scenariobased on current conditions (e.g., for calibration andvalidation) or to simulate the water quality impactsof proposed treatment facilities or discharge regula-tions. Alternatively, VODA can calculate financiallyoptimal strategies to achieve water quality improve-ment goals or to meet specified standards for all orsome of the stream reaches. Decision choices includealternative allocations of reservoir water for dilution(with lost value from alternative uses); temporary orpermanent closing of polluting entities; and capitaland operational costs of pollution pretreatment andtreatment.

VODA also provides for input of alternativeweather conditions, based on the validation period ora typical wet, average, or dry year. It also is possibleto input temperature and precipitation change scenar-ios derived from global climate change models. Typ-ically, simulations will be framed in terms of low-flow months during relatively dry years.

The numerical results of VODA’s simulationand optimization then are passed back to ArcViewfor presentation of Protection Location and ActionNetwork (PLAN; the same meaning in Bulgarian asin English). PLAN provides maps of water qualitystatus and tabular information on goal achievement,cost, and decision variables that entered into the so-lution. Dissemination of the model includes a CD inpreparation that will have the full model structure fora simple, heuristic river basin, as well as selectedscenarios derived for the Yantra Basin itself.



R E K A

River Environmental Knowledge and Assessment

A Spatial Water Quality Assessment System

B I S T R A V O D A

Basin Impacts of Simulated Validation and Optimization Transport from Rural Areas for Decision Analysis

P L A N

Figure 1. The Yantra River Basin, a Danube sub-basin in Bulgaria.

Figure 2. REKA, a spatial water quality assessment system.



Coping With Nature: Accepting Risk, Adopting Technology, and Assuming IgnoranceJames McManus 1, Courtland L. Smith 2, Jesse Ford 3, Paul D. Komar 4, Debbie Colbert 4, and Michael Styllas 4

1Large Lakes Observatory, University of Minnesota, Duluth, MN; 2Department of Anthropology, 3Departmentof Fisheries and Wildlife, 4College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR

The National Research Council (NRC) recom-mends evaluating incentive-based approaches to envi-ronmental regulation to replace command-and-controlmeasures. The NRC further recommends the use ofcomparative examples that combine natural scientificstudy with risk assessment and benefit-cost analysis.

Landowners in the Tillamook Basin, OR, have150 years of adapting to natural processes that poserisks of flooding, tidal currents, wind and wave action,fire, disease, earthquake, and tsunami. In addition, landuses have contributed to water quality problems thataffect the ecology of Tillamook Bay, particularly oys-ter growing and fishing.

This group’s research on sediments, water chem-istry, ecosystem health, and social science has identi-fied a number of situations in which landowners makerisk-benefit calculations. The results of these calcula-tions include building the dairy industry and a majorcommercial area in the flood plain. Another is plan-ning a destination tourist resort on a sand spit breachedby ocean waves. In trying to explain these decisions, itwas found that landowners conducted their own risk-benefit calculations, employed technology to minimizerisk, and accepted higher risk because of ignorance.

Why do many landowners make decisions thatappear to go against natural processes? One hypothesisis that they are ignorant of the effects of natural pro-cesses. A second hypothesis is that they think tech-nology can overcome the forces of nature. A third hy-pothesis is that they make a risk-benefit calculation.Data support each of these hypotheses, but risk-benefitcalculations explain more than the others.

These hypotheses were tested in a number of sit-uations in the Tillamook Basin. For example, historicalevidence shows a pattern of learning about the effectsof natural processes, the use of technology to minimize

risk, and most of all, calculated risktaking. Learningbegan in the 1850s, when the first settlers broughtdairy cattle to the area. The dairy industry persists be-cause of risk calculations made by dairy owners aboutrelative economic impacts of water quality problemsand the probability of floods wiping out their herds.

The dairy industry is the biggest contributor offecal coliform to the Bay, which is closed to oysterharvest approximately 100 days per year. Agriculturepersists because the risk of major reductions in fecalcoliform levels is far greater than the oyster harvestand fishing benefits. Further, much of the science as tocauses and processes still is uncertain. The other majornatural threat to agriculture is flooding. Here, the effortis to make modifications in the basin to move flood-waters out as quickly as possible and keep the numberof milkings missed to fewer than six. More than sixmissed milkings results in the loss of productive cows.

Examination of other decisions about forest, ur-ban, and recreation land use suggests that reduction ofignorance, technological innovation, and risk-benefitcalculations all affect land-use decisions. The risk-ben-efit calculation typically is the one hypothesis that ex-plains most about landowner decisionmaking. Theseexamples of risk-benefit analysis by local landownersresponding to market incentives show that people willtake risks against natural hazards. They often are ig-norant of risk probabilities, and these are not well com-municated in the community.

The risk assessments are not quantitative. Land-owners seek technology believing they can armorthemselves against risks. Because of ignorance and be-lief in the benefits of technology, the risk-benefit cal-culation is often wrong in the short term, but the col-lective result over the long term is local adaptation tothe occurrence of natural processes.



Ecological Risks, Stakeholder Values, and River Basins: Testing Management Alternatives for the Illinois RiverMark Meo 1, Baxter Vieux 2, Blake Pettus 3, Edward Sankowski 4, Robert Lynch 5, Will Focht 6, Keith Willett 7, and Lowell Caneday 8

1Science and Public Policy Program, 2College of Engineering, 3College of Architecture, 4College of Arts andSciences, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; 5College of Public Health, University of Oklahoma HealthSciences Center, Oklahoma City, OK; 6College of Arts and Sciences, 7College of Business Administration,8College of Education, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK

The objective of this research project is to iden-tify and compare different environmental and socialvalues held by stakeholders in Oklahoma’s IllinoisRiver Watershed, and to test a management protocolthat is technically effective, economically efficient,and socially and politically acceptable. In the firstphase of the project, baseline technical, economic, andsociopolitical assessments were conducted that serveas the basis for subsequent interactive visualizationworkshops with policymakers and stakeholders to de-fine alternative management policies that meet thethree criteria for acceptance.

In the second phase, alternative policy assess-ments are being modeled and prepared to help water-shed stakeholders attain consensus about alternativeland and water uses. In the final phase of the project,the project’s acceptability will be determined througha telephone survey of watershed stakeholders.

The technical analysis involves a geographic in-formation system (GIS)-based modeling of watershedhydrology and nutrient flows, and ecological risk char-acterization of selected species. Distributed parameterhydrologic modeling has been used to relate land-usealternatives to impacts on water quality. Simulationsuse digital representations of rainfall, soils, topogra-phy, and land use in GIS format. To date, the projectteam has collected water quality data (see Figure 1)over the period for which the distributed runoff non-point pollution (DRIP) model is run; developed modeldata sets derived from GIS maps of soils, land use, top-ography, and radar estimates of rainfall; assembledGIS maps that depict population density, roads/trans-portation, and political boundaries; and completed thevisualization of the digital elevation models and waterquality simulations using the AVS software. The ob-jective of the ecological risk effort has been to identifyat-risk ecological communities that: (1) rely on avail-able data, (2) enable quantification of visually com-municable risk measures, (3) are relevant to groups ofstakeholders, and (4) are responsive to alternative man-agement strategies.

Accomplishments include the collection of datafrom sites on 24 tributaries within the river basin over

the past several years to monitor the influence of landuse on receiving waters, and a comprehensive surveyof all agency databases and the calculation of com-munity integrity indices for fish, periphyton, and ben-thic macroinvertebrates. The economic assessment hasbeen focused on the development of databases andmodeling structures that capture the most significanteconomic activities in the watershed.

Regional impact of these activities is estimatedthrough the use of the IMPLAN input-output model,which enables the calculation of the economic impactof individual expenditures on total gross output, em-ployment, employee compensation, property income,value added, and indirect business taxes. In addition,the role of poultry production in the regional environ-ment and economy has been analyzed by incorporatingpoultry feeding and production decisions for disposalof waste litter. The sociopolitical assessment has beenundertaken and completed through a series of joint ac-tivities that were based on stakeholder interviews ineach of eight study regions identified for the water-shed. Concurrent activities included 150 in-personinterviews, 60 mental modeling interviews, and 120 Qmethodological interviews.

Computer visualization is being used as a deci-sion support tool to facilitate stakeholder understand-ing and as an aid for negotiating alternative land andwater use policies. The visualization team has focusedon: (1) developing a graphic infrastructure for organ-izing research data; (2) collecting data on the back-ground, history, and visual character of the watershedand converting this into digital format; (3) developingdigital standards required to compile the work of thedifferent research teams; (4) developing an effectiveapproach to graphically compiling, rendering, and ani-mating multiple large-format DEM data; and (5) crea-ting color-relief imagery from high-resolution DEMdata. This work has been completed.

Future technical activities will focus on charac-terizing policy options with the developed DRIP andIMPLAN models and presenting them in a visual for-mat for use in a planned sequence of stakeholder andpolicymaker negotiation workshops.



Figure 1. Illinois River water testing stations.



Balancing Risks of Flood Controland Ecological Preservation in Urban WatershedsVladimir Novotny, D. Clark, R. Griffin, A. Bartošová, and D. BoothInstitute for Urban Environmental Risk Management, Marquette University, Milwaukee, WI

This study employs an interdisciplinary approachto investigate community support for watershed man-agement initiatives. Watershed professionals often ad-dress two consequences of urbanization. First, urbangrowth frequently exacerbates downstream floodingproblems (magnitude, frequency, spatial scope) due toincreased storm runoff. Second, urbanization also in-creases ecological risks as less tolerant species disap-pear due to loss of wetlands and diminished waterquality. When assessing policy alternatives, watershedprofessionals must determine community support forflood control objectives vis á vis ecological risk reduc-tion.

This research has the following specific objec-tives: (1) develop statistical flow, loading, and waterquality models for flood risk assessment; (2) developecological risk assessment procedures to estimate eco-logical consequences of urbanization; (3) simulateflooding/ecological risk assessment for urbanizationscenarios; (4) adapt a contingent valuation approach tospatially assess individual willingness to pay (WTP)from flood control and water quality improvementswithin urban watersheds; (5) examine the impact ofdrivers (spatial, demographic, attitudinal) of statedWTP for flood/ecological risk reduction; (6) determinetemporal stability of WTP for flood/ecological risk re-duction; and (7) derive communitywide benefit/costestimates for watershed management alternatives.

A hydrologic model of flooding risk within aMilwaukee watershed was developed. The modifiedmethodology uses data from an existing hydraulicmodel to delineate floodplain based on the flow of aspecified recurrence interval. Regression analysis tiesthe flow to depth and floodplain width. Results thenare incorporated into a geographic information systemsoftware package, permitting more precise evaluation

of existing flood risks within the watershed. This meth-odology also allows flood risk changes from urban-ization to be computed.

A model of ecological risk also has been devel-oped. The information on habitat suitability and eco-logical risk due to chemical contamination is beinganalyzed with respect to overall biotic integrity of fishand macroinvertebrates. A habitat index has been usedto assess the effect of habitat on an index of bioticintegrity (IBI). All sites investigated show a decreasein IBI greater than the decrease in habitat index, or thelevel of habitat impairment, would indicate. Thisshows significant chemical impairment of water bod-ies. A simple software package was developed to facil-itate calculation of ecological risks from hypotheticalchemical contamination.

A telephone survey was developed, and the firstof two waves was conducted in fall 1999/spring 2000on 999 randomly selected adult residents of two Mil-waukee watersheds. Respondents were provided witha description of a hypothetical referendum for a water-shed project based on the hydrologic models. Theystated their annual WTP for the next 20 years. Prelim-inary findings suggest that: (1) WTP is independent ofthe project scope (i.e., projects with more risk re-duction are not more highly valued); (2) there is a re-lationship between WTP and sociodemographic char-acteristics of the respondent; (3) WTP is influenced bylocation within the watershed (e.g., upstream/down-stream); and (4) attitudinal factors related to subjectivenorms and overall belief structures appear to influenceWTP.

The stability of responses will be reviewed afterthe second survey wave. Benefit estimates will be com-puted for each watershed and compared with expectedcosts.



Impact of Social Systems on Ecology and Hydrology in Urban-Rural Watersheds: Integration for Restoration Steward T.A. Pickett 1, J.M. Grove 2, L.W. Band 3, K.T. Belt 4, G.S. Brush 5, W.R. Burch, Jr. 6, M.L. Cadenasso 1, J.M. Carrera 7, G.T. Fisher 8, P.M. Groffman 1, R.V. Pouyat 4, and W.C. Zipperer 4

1Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, NY; 2U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Burlington,VT; 3University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC; 4U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service,Syracuse, NY; 5Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD; 6Yale University, New Haven, CT; 7Parks andPeople Foundation, Baltimore, MD; 8U.S. Geological Survey, Baltimore, MD

This collaborative project, representing hydrol-ogists, social scientists, plant ecologists, engineers,landscape ecologists, and outreach specialists, seeks todevelop novel hydro-ecological models that integratekey social drivers of watershed function at variousscales in Metropolitan Baltimore. In addition, it issought to interact with stakeholders, managers, anddecisionmakers to improve and test the utility of themodel in the real world.

The project focuses on the 17,000-ha GwynnsFalls Watershed that extends from the suburban fringeto the densely built residential, and ultimately, indus-trial areas at the mouth of the stream. U.S. GeologicalSurvey gauging stations, which are located at con-trasting reaches of the stream, in representative butcontrasting subcatchments of the stream, and in a ref-erence forested watershed, provide the substrate formodel development. The project is integrated by thepatch dynamics approach, the human ecosystem frame-work, and hydrological models that take into accounthuman and social capital as well as the more tradition-al inputs of built and natural capital.

The model is being developed to allow dynamicfeedbacks between the four major realms of capital.The research project brings together specific data such

as microclimate, soils and slope form, riparian and up-land vegetation, social-ecological spatial patch pattern,and social structure and processes.

Testing the models will use, in part, paleoeco-logical and historical data on infrastructure, land cover,human population, and social indicators. Projectionswill be based on contrasting land-use and economicscenarios. The models have an explicit spatial com-ponent that allows the role of biogeophysical and so-cial heterogeneity on watershed function to be as-sessed.

The insights provided by recent additions to theknowledge base include: (1) the failure of land-usemodels to routinely include human decisionmaking;(2) the role of social heterogeneity in increasing eco-logical heterogeneity in the metropolis; (3) unexpectedlocations of environmental hazards in the watershed;(4) improved water quality downstream in the urban-suburban watershed, with expected low impairment inthe forested reference watershed; (5) increased compo-sitional and spatial heterogeneity in urban vegetatedplots; and (6) promising utility of software being de-veloped to support the integrated hydro-ecologicalmodels. Close interactions with the Patuxent Land-scape Model is a feature of the project.



Index of Authors

Allan, J.D., 21Armbrust, K.L., 3 Beck, M.B., 41Benoit, G., 43Boll, J., 22Bolte, J., 24Bonzongo, J.C., 25Costanza, R., 27Day, J., 4Deegan, L.A., 45Diplas, P., 47Farrow, S., 6Goldman, C.R., 48Gowda, P.H., 50Hopkinson, C.S., 51Kahl, J., 52Knight, C.G., 54Kraft, S., 28Lathrop, R.C., 8

Maddock, T., 30Matlock, M.D., 31Matthews, O.P., 10McManus, J., 56Meo, M., 57Novotny, V., 59Opaluch, J.J., 32Palmer, M.A., 11Pickett, S.T.A., 60Rhoads, B.L., 33Richardson, C.J., 34Richmond, R.H., 13Sabatier, P., 35Sanders, B., 15Sparks, R.E., 16Tucker, R.K., 36Turco, R., 17Welty, C., 18Wissmar, R.C., 38

Documents

2001 Water and Watersheds Progress Review | US EPA ARCHIVE ... · Richard C. Lathrop, Kenneth W. Potter, Jean M. Bahr, Kenneth R. Bradbury, Steven R. Greb, James A. LaGro, Jr., Edward