1st Quarter 2006 Commentary

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    QUARTERLY COMMENTARY FIRST QUARTER 2006

    CHAIRMAN THE ONLY CHANGE AT FOMC

    The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), now

    lead by Bernard Bernanke, has stayed the course

    charted by his predecessor Alan Greenspan. Despitethe change at the FOMC Chairman position, not

    much changed in regards to their view on the

    prevailing economy. At the end of March, it raised

    rates by % for the 15th (and counting) consecutive

    meeting and the longer end of the yield curve largelyignored it for the 15th straight time (see chart). In the

    1st

    Quarter many closely watched metrics remained

    the same. Oil and precious metals

    maintained their lofty levels, small

    company stocks and international

    stocks outperformed their domestic

    large company peers, corporate

    profits posted double-digit

    increases, employment improved

    and economic growth continued.

    The equity and fixed income

    markets have begun to act as if this

    environment will continue. The

    S&P 500 in the 1st

    quarter posted a

    return of 4.21% which nearly

    matches the return for all of 2005.The bond market has begun to test

    the upper end of the yield range it

    has maintained since the FOMC began raising rates

    in the Spring of 2004. At Nelson Roberts Investment

    Advisors, we have maintained our position of being

    fully invested within our equity allocations while

    keeping the fixed income maturities in our portfolios

    short.

    CONTENT AS KING

    In January the old Viacom spun-off into New

    Viacom (tkr: VIA/B) (retaining the cable networksand Paramount) and CBS (tkr: CBS) (CBS network,

    TV and radio stations) illustrating the dramatic

    changes within the media landscape. Armed with

    technologies like the Internet, TiVo, and satellite

    radio, people are increasingly consuming media, but

    at different times and in new placeson the go and

    at their desks, as well as watching TV at home. The

    agreement last fall between Apple and Disney to sell

    episodes ofDesperate Housewives and other shows

    over iTunes to be viewed on the video iPod was a

    milestone in the migration of traditional media to

    digital distribution devices allowing consumers toview television, films and other content when and

    where they choose. There are more than 9 million

    Internet blogs, over 5,000 unique podcasts and

    uncountable number of vblogs and video clips.

    Mobile phones, handhelds (like Apples iPod), and

    laptops, are all tools giving the consumer more

    control over the content they watch.

    While the consumer shift to digital media presents a

    challenge to the traditional media business model, we

    believe the transition also

    represents an opportunity forCBS and Viacomleaders in

    both the production and

    distribution of TV and cable

    programmingto push their

    content across new distribution

    platforms. With popularprograms and content, they can

    now sell pieces of what they do

    to numerous places and are in a

    position to exploit and leverage

    this content and existing media

    brands with the Internet, mobiledevices, video games and

    interactive TV. Viacom has

    launched MTV OverDrive and Comedy Centrals

    Motherload, websites that enable users to view and

    download content previously available only through

    TV programming. As we shift to a subscription-based

    world, we expect content rather than distribution

    channel will increasingly command the power.

    JAPAN

    Early in the first quarter, we increased our exposure

    to Japan with the addition of an exchange-traded fund

    (tkr: EWJ), giving us low cost and diversifiedexposure to leading Japanese companies. A string of

    good economic news has helped to support gains in

    Japan, whose economy has been shaking off the

    remnants of a malaise that persisted through much ofthe 1990s.

    In its most recent economic report, the Japanese

    government raised its growth outlook and removed

    the word gradual from its description of the

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    recovery. Rising wages and improved employment

    conditions encouraged consumer spending, fueling

    economic expansion. Japan's economy expanded1.1% in the 1st quarter of 2005, followed by growth

    of 2.7% in the 2nd

    quarter, 2.8% in the 3rd

    , and 4.5%

    in the 4th. The Bank of Japan decided on March 9 to

    end its accommodative monetary policy that hadlasted for five years. Still, interest rates will likely

    remain close to zero for some time, to allow for

    further growth and

    slight inflation. After

    the latest labor market

    and inflation reports,

    the Nikkei closed at

    17,059, up more than

    40% over the last year.

    We believe there is

    more to go. The

    further broadening of activity across economic

    sectors due to growing domestic demand (rather than

    being concentrated in the export arena), should lead

    to higher corporate profits and growth.

    SCARCITY AND SUSTAINABILITY

    The dramatic rise in the price of oil has once again

    focused politicians, consumers and manufacturersalike on the topic of scarcity. President Bush in his

    State of the Union address in January cited Americas

    addiction to oil and introduced the Advanced

    Energy Initiative, intent on developing alternative

    ways of powering our homes and workplaces.

    Consumers have long been at the vanguard in the

    battle for sustainability. Toyota reported that U.S.

    sales of the Toyota Prius rose to 151,000 in 2005.

    The Prius has enjoyed phenomenal success despite a

    price point that commands a 25%-35% premium over

    its comparable non-hybrid counterpart. Whole Foods

    Market has seen its revenues more than double in the

    last four years by catering to a consumer, again

    willing to pay a premium price, in search of a purer

    product. Are these examples of consumers willing to

    pay a premium price for a sustainable product

    anecdotal evidence of a sea change for consumers?Though our research of this theme remains a work in

    progress, we thought we would share some of the

    ideas we are considering for inclusion in our equity

    portfolios.

    Hain Celestial (tkr: HAIN) and SunOpta Inc. (tkr:

    STKL) are both plays on the growth of the natural

    food industry. Despite the success, cited above, of the

    retailer Whole Foods, we have been unable to justify

    the extremely large premium (Price-to-Earnings of

    63) being afforded that stock. Instead, we havemoved down the food chain (in this case quite

    literally) and have focused on suppliers whose

    products grace the shelves of natural food retailers.

    Hain Celestial manufactures products under a numberof brand names, most recognizably, Earths Best and

    Terra Chips. SunOpta is even further vertically

    integrated and aids in

    bringing non-

    genetically modified

    and organic crops to

    market.

    MEMC Electronic

    Materials (tkr: WFR)

    is a play on the

    shortage of polysilicon. Used most notably in the

    semiconductor industry, polysilicon is also a key

    component in Solar Cells. Governments world wide,

    including the U.S., are providing incentives for

    expanding the use of solar energy.

    Televent (tkr: TLVT) is a leading provider of real

    time monitoring and control systems. Televent

    solutions are critical for the movement and

    transportation of energy resources and traffic. Their

    exposure to water and wastewater management

    applications is particularly intriguing.

    Trex (tkr: TWP) and Headwaters (tkr: HW) are

    companies with exposure to the construction

    industry. Trex is best known for it wood-like decking

    products and Headwaters is a manufacturer of

    concrete products from a byproduct of coalcombustion.

    We mentioned in our last quarter the success in our

    investment in the payroll processing industry. A

    combination of increasing short-term interest rates

    and improved employment numbers provided a

    positive landscape for Paychex (tkr: PAYX) and

    Automatic Data Processing (tkr: ADP). Though both

    solid companies, we are now looking for an exit point

    for both names.

    We are encouraged by the economic results posted

    through the 1st Quarter of 2006. We believe returns in

    the equity market, driven by solid corporate profits,

    will outpace the returns from a fixed income market

    that will reflect inflationary pressure on interest rates.

    Index Performance Q1 06 YTD

    Dow Jones Industrials 4.24 4.24

    Standard & Poors 500 4.21 4.21

    EAFE (international stocks) 9.49 9.49

    Russell 2000 (small stocks) 13.94 13.94

    Lehman Intermediate 0.26 0.26

    Lehman Municipal 0.25 0.25

    www.nelsonroberts.com