View
214
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
7/31/2019 1st Quarter 2006 Commentary
1/2
QUARTERLY COMMENTARY FIRST QUARTER 2006
CHAIRMAN THE ONLY CHANGE AT FOMC
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), now
lead by Bernard Bernanke, has stayed the course
charted by his predecessor Alan Greenspan. Despitethe change at the FOMC Chairman position, not
much changed in regards to their view on the
prevailing economy. At the end of March, it raised
rates by % for the 15th (and counting) consecutive
meeting and the longer end of the yield curve largelyignored it for the 15th straight time (see chart). In the
1st
Quarter many closely watched metrics remained
the same. Oil and precious metals
maintained their lofty levels, small
company stocks and international
stocks outperformed their domestic
large company peers, corporate
profits posted double-digit
increases, employment improved
and economic growth continued.
The equity and fixed income
markets have begun to act as if this
environment will continue. The
S&P 500 in the 1st
quarter posted a
return of 4.21% which nearly
matches the return for all of 2005.The bond market has begun to test
the upper end of the yield range it
has maintained since the FOMC began raising rates
in the Spring of 2004. At Nelson Roberts Investment
Advisors, we have maintained our position of being
fully invested within our equity allocations while
keeping the fixed income maturities in our portfolios
short.
CONTENT AS KING
In January the old Viacom spun-off into New
Viacom (tkr: VIA/B) (retaining the cable networksand Paramount) and CBS (tkr: CBS) (CBS network,
TV and radio stations) illustrating the dramatic
changes within the media landscape. Armed with
technologies like the Internet, TiVo, and satellite
radio, people are increasingly consuming media, but
at different times and in new placeson the go and
at their desks, as well as watching TV at home. The
agreement last fall between Apple and Disney to sell
episodes ofDesperate Housewives and other shows
over iTunes to be viewed on the video iPod was a
milestone in the migration of traditional media to
digital distribution devices allowing consumers toview television, films and other content when and
where they choose. There are more than 9 million
Internet blogs, over 5,000 unique podcasts and
uncountable number of vblogs and video clips.
Mobile phones, handhelds (like Apples iPod), and
laptops, are all tools giving the consumer more
control over the content they watch.
While the consumer shift to digital media presents a
challenge to the traditional media business model, we
believe the transition also
represents an opportunity forCBS and Viacomleaders in
both the production and
distribution of TV and cable
programmingto push their
content across new distribution
platforms. With popularprograms and content, they can
now sell pieces of what they do
to numerous places and are in a
position to exploit and leverage
this content and existing media
brands with the Internet, mobiledevices, video games and
interactive TV. Viacom has
launched MTV OverDrive and Comedy Centrals
Motherload, websites that enable users to view and
download content previously available only through
TV programming. As we shift to a subscription-based
world, we expect content rather than distribution
channel will increasingly command the power.
JAPAN
Early in the first quarter, we increased our exposure
to Japan with the addition of an exchange-traded fund
(tkr: EWJ), giving us low cost and diversifiedexposure to leading Japanese companies. A string of
good economic news has helped to support gains in
Japan, whose economy has been shaking off the
remnants of a malaise that persisted through much ofthe 1990s.
In its most recent economic report, the Japanese
government raised its growth outlook and removed
the word gradual from its description of the
7/31/2019 1st Quarter 2006 Commentary
2/2
recovery. Rising wages and improved employment
conditions encouraged consumer spending, fueling
economic expansion. Japan's economy expanded1.1% in the 1st quarter of 2005, followed by growth
of 2.7% in the 2nd
quarter, 2.8% in the 3rd
, and 4.5%
in the 4th. The Bank of Japan decided on March 9 to
end its accommodative monetary policy that hadlasted for five years. Still, interest rates will likely
remain close to zero for some time, to allow for
further growth and
slight inflation. After
the latest labor market
and inflation reports,
the Nikkei closed at
17,059, up more than
40% over the last year.
We believe there is
more to go. The
further broadening of activity across economic
sectors due to growing domestic demand (rather than
being concentrated in the export arena), should lead
to higher corporate profits and growth.
SCARCITY AND SUSTAINABILITY
The dramatic rise in the price of oil has once again
focused politicians, consumers and manufacturersalike on the topic of scarcity. President Bush in his
State of the Union address in January cited Americas
addiction to oil and introduced the Advanced
Energy Initiative, intent on developing alternative
ways of powering our homes and workplaces.
Consumers have long been at the vanguard in the
battle for sustainability. Toyota reported that U.S.
sales of the Toyota Prius rose to 151,000 in 2005.
The Prius has enjoyed phenomenal success despite a
price point that commands a 25%-35% premium over
its comparable non-hybrid counterpart. Whole Foods
Market has seen its revenues more than double in the
last four years by catering to a consumer, again
willing to pay a premium price, in search of a purer
product. Are these examples of consumers willing to
pay a premium price for a sustainable product
anecdotal evidence of a sea change for consumers?Though our research of this theme remains a work in
progress, we thought we would share some of the
ideas we are considering for inclusion in our equity
portfolios.
Hain Celestial (tkr: HAIN) and SunOpta Inc. (tkr:
STKL) are both plays on the growth of the natural
food industry. Despite the success, cited above, of the
retailer Whole Foods, we have been unable to justify
the extremely large premium (Price-to-Earnings of
63) being afforded that stock. Instead, we havemoved down the food chain (in this case quite
literally) and have focused on suppliers whose
products grace the shelves of natural food retailers.
Hain Celestial manufactures products under a numberof brand names, most recognizably, Earths Best and
Terra Chips. SunOpta is even further vertically
integrated and aids in
bringing non-
genetically modified
and organic crops to
market.
MEMC Electronic
Materials (tkr: WFR)
is a play on the
shortage of polysilicon. Used most notably in the
semiconductor industry, polysilicon is also a key
component in Solar Cells. Governments world wide,
including the U.S., are providing incentives for
expanding the use of solar energy.
Televent (tkr: TLVT) is a leading provider of real
time monitoring and control systems. Televent
solutions are critical for the movement and
transportation of energy resources and traffic. Their
exposure to water and wastewater management
applications is particularly intriguing.
Trex (tkr: TWP) and Headwaters (tkr: HW) are
companies with exposure to the construction
industry. Trex is best known for it wood-like decking
products and Headwaters is a manufacturer of
concrete products from a byproduct of coalcombustion.
We mentioned in our last quarter the success in our
investment in the payroll processing industry. A
combination of increasing short-term interest rates
and improved employment numbers provided a
positive landscape for Paychex (tkr: PAYX) and
Automatic Data Processing (tkr: ADP). Though both
solid companies, we are now looking for an exit point
for both names.
We are encouraged by the economic results posted
through the 1st Quarter of 2006. We believe returns in
the equity market, driven by solid corporate profits,
will outpace the returns from a fixed income market
that will reflect inflationary pressure on interest rates.
Index Performance Q1 06 YTD
Dow Jones Industrials 4.24 4.24
Standard & Poors 500 4.21 4.21
EAFE (international stocks) 9.49 9.49
Russell 2000 (small stocks) 13.94 13.94
Lehman Intermediate 0.26 0.26
Lehman Municipal 0.25 0.25
www.nelsonroberts.com