1988-89 cabinet paper 6363

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CABINET IN CONFIDENCE

Copy No

C A B I N E T M I N U T E

Submission

No.

6363

Canberra, Apri l 1989

No. 12416

Aust ra l i an Response

to

the

Greenhouse Effec t and

Related

Climate Change

The

Cabine t agreed

t ha t : -

4

(a) a s t rong commitment i s requi red to address the

greenhouse

i s sue

both na t i ona l l y

and

in te rna t iona l ly ;

(b) a

comprehensive

s t r a t egy

address ing greenhouse

i s sues

be

adopted

compris ing

a co-o rd ina ted core

resea rch program (on reg ional

c l imate model l ing)

plus

a dedica ted

resea rch

grant s

scheme fo r

implementa t ion in

1990-91) and support

for

development

of na t iona l

and

i n t e rna t iona l

responses;

(c) funds be

provided of

1.039

mil l ion

in 1988-89

and

6.752

mil l ion in

1989-90,

with those

amounts to inc lude s t a f f and support cos t s ;

2

This

document is the property of the Australian Government

and

is not to e copied or reproduced


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C BINET IN CON Fl

DENCE

2.

No. 12416 Contd)

2.

d) a Nationa l

Greenhouse

Advisory

Committee be

es tab l i shed

to

provide

exper t advice on

greenhouse

resea rch

i s sues , inc luding

p r io r i t y

areas and objec t ives for fu r the r resea rch ,

and

t h a t the Committee be se rv iced by the Department

of Arts , Sport , the

Environment,

Tourism and

Ter r i to r ie s

DASETT);

e) Commonwealth ac t ion on

nat iona l

greenhouse

i s sues

be

co-ord inated by

an

in te r -agency

committee

cha i red

by the

Department

of the Prime

Minis t e r and

Cabinet ;

f )

the

Prime

Minis ter i s sue

a

press r e l ease along

the l ine s o f t ha t a t Attachment

A

to the

Submission: and

g) appropr ia te re fe rence to the na t i ona l resea rch

a )

program on greenhouse r e l a t ed

c l ima te

and

environment changes

a lso

be made i n

the sc ience

pol icy s ta tement

to

be de l ive r e d i n

May

1989.

The

Cabinet noted t ha t : -

agreement to

sub-paragraph

l c ) above wi l l

requi re addi t iona l

SL

CSIRO 4

in 1988-89 and

approximately 30

in

1989-90 outs ide SL

con t ro l s ) , D SETT

2 in 1988-89 and 10 SL in

1989-90 and the Bureau

of

Meteorology

5

SL in

1989-90), with

de ta i l s

to

be

s e t t l e d

with

the

Min i s t e r

for Finance; and

. . .

/3

This

document is the property

of

the ustralian Government and is not to be copied or

reproduced


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C BINET

IN CON Fl DENCE

3.

No. 12416 Contd)

b) the

Minis ter fo r the Arts

Spor t ,

the

Environment, Tourism and

Ter r i to r ie s

would

repor t

back to

Cabinet before the end of 1989 on

fur ther

ac t ion

requi red

to address

greenhouse

c l imate

change

i s sues inc luding

funding

requirements

fo r 1990-91 and

1991-92.

Secre ta ry

to

Cabinet

This document is

the

property

of

the

ustralian Government and is not to be copied or reproduced

CABINET IN CONFIDE

CE

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Submission No. 63 63_

OR C BINET

Copy No.

Title

Minister

Purpose/Issues

Sensitivity Criticism

Legislation

involved

1

ency:

L..ntical/sign fica

nt

dates

sultation:

Ministers/Depts

consulted

s

there

agreement?

Timing handling of

announcement

Cost

ASL:

AUSTRALIAN RESFONSE

TO THE GREENHOUSE

EFFECT

AND

RELATED CLIMATE

CHANGE

Sena tor the

Hon

Graham Richardson, Minis ter for the

Arts ,

Sport ,

the

Environment,

Tourism

and

Ter r i to r i e s : The

Hon

Barry

Jones ,

MP,

Minis t e r for

Science ,

Customs

and Small

Business : The

Hon Stewart

West,

MP, Minis te r

for

Adminis t ra t ive Services

respond to Cab inet s reques t (Minute No 11674 o f

~ u t 1988) on opt ions

fo r

enhancing

Aus t ra l i an

rch i n to greenhouse

c l imate change

and

t o

e

Aust ra l i a

to

respond

quickly

to poss ib le

s in

the

environment

r e s u l t i ng from inc reas ing

s

of greenhouse gases

in

the

atmosphere .

Prime

Minis te r has

under taken to

provide

dd i t i ona l research funds i f required

(House

of

Represen ta t ives ,

3.11.88) . The

1988

ALP Platform

s t a t e s add i t iona l

research

and po l icy

development i s

requi red .

Greenhouse

re l a t ed

c l imate change i s a

major

global

environmental i s sue . I t is

essen t i a l

t ha t

the

Government has

a

response

s t ra tegy fo r

Aus t ra l i a .

Nil

The c l im a t i c e f f e c t s in the Aust ra l i an

region

must

be

i den t i f i ed now.

We must develop responses and

pro t e c t our i n t e r e s t s i n t e rna t iona l ly .

A-G's ,

DCS H, Defence, DEET,

Finance,

DFAT,

DILGEA,

DPIE,

BM

and C,

DT C, Treasury , ASTEC.

No, see

co-ord ina t ion

comments a t Attachment G

Off ice o f

Government

Information

and Advert i s ing

has

been consul ted . Release of press

s ta tement

by the

Prime Minis ter

along

the l ines of Attachment

A.

DASETT

BOM

CSIRO

Fin Yr

88/89

$1.0 9m

2

4

Fin Yr

89/90

$6.7

52m

10

5

approx

30

) Fin Yr

90/91

Resources

from

199

0/91

onwards

to

be

sub jec t

of a

fu r the r

Cabinet submission

This

document is

the

property o the

ustral ian Government

and is

not

to be

copied

or

reproduced

CABINET I

CONFIDENCE

~

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C A B I N E T I N C O N F I D E N C E

Human

a c t i v i t i e s , espec ia l ly ra te s of popula t ion growth,

burning fos s i l

fue l s ,

agr icu l ture and defores ta t ion a re

l eading

to growing concentra t ions of co

2

and

other

greenhouse

gases

(oxides of ni t rogen, CFCs, methane) in

t he

atmosphere.

There

i s

widespread

(even

i f not

un iver sa l )

s c i e n t i f i c agreement

tha t

t h i s

wil l

cause global warming by

re ta in ing

a

h igher

propor t ion of the

sun ' s heat .

In tu rn , sea

l eve l s wi l l r i s e , pa t te rns of r a in f a l l , storms and cyclones

wil l change ( for more de ta i led

informat ion

see

Attachment B).

2. There is

inc reas ing


concern

about the

greenhouse e f f ec t and

re la ted

cl imate changes. There i s a l so

increas ing dom estic concern. Cabinet recognised t h i s

when

it

reques ted opt ions to enhance Aust ra l ian research . To avoid

1

long term dele ter1ous soc1a

,

econom1c

and

env1ronmental

e f fec t s , Aust ra l ia must:

(a)

a c c e l e r a t e

i t s

research e f fo r t s to unders tand the

impl ica t ions of the

greenhouse

e f fec t

for Aus t ra l i a ' s

c l imate ; and

(b) develop

long

term

s t r a t eg ie s to minimise the damage

caused

by

these changes.

3 . Aust ra l i an

greenhouse

re la ted

research

was surveyed by

the

Department

of the

Arts ,

Spor t , the

Environment, Tourism

and Ter r i to r i e s

DASETT) in

1988.

Some

research i s being

under taken

by the Commonwealth Sc i en t i f i c and

Indus t r i a l

Research Organisa t ion

CSIRO)

and the

Bureau of

Meteorology

BOM).

However,

there is littl

o ther s pe c i f i c

greenhouse

research

(see Attachment C).

Aus t ra l i a ' s research program

must

be

acce le ra t ed

i f

we are to unders tand the e f fec t s of the

greenhouse

phenomenon in

the

southern hemisphere genera l ly and

spec i f i ca l l y on

the

Aust ra l ian

cl imate

and

environment.

4.

In te rna t iona l

ac t ion

on

greenhouse i s sues has recen t ly

become focused

through an In tergovernmenta l

Panel on

Climate

Change

(IPCC),

es tab l i shed j o i n t l y by the World Meteorological

Organisa t ion

WMO) and

the

United Nations

Environment

Programme UNEP) in

1988.

The United

Nations

General

Asse

rrb ly

and

the OECD,

among other i n t e rna t iona l fora , are

a lso

address ing

greenhouse and

c l imate

change mat te rs .

5.

Unless

A us t r a l i a par t i c i pa t e s in

these

de l ibe r a t i ons , we

r i sk

having fo i s ted

upon

us po l i c i e s which wil l

pre jud ice

our

i n t e rna t iona l and

domestic

economic i n t e r e s t s in agr icu l ture ,

CABIN ET 1 N CON

Fl

DENCE

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CABINET IN-CONFIDENCE

fo re s t ry ,

t r a ns por t , energy and manufacturing e t c .

6.

Most i n t e rna t iona l research

i n to

the greenhouse

e f fec t

derives from and

focuses upon the nor thern hemisphere .

Aust ra l ia i s one of

the few

count r ies in the southern

hemisphere capable of

undertaking the necessary

research and

playing a

leading

ro le

in

the development of i n t e rna t iona l

s t r a t egy .

7. Regiona l ly ,

New

Zealand, Japan and the

Republ ic

of Korea

have

expressed i n t e r e s t in col labora t ing with Aust ra l ia on

greenhouse

i ssues .

CONSIDER TION

OF

ISSU S

8. Aust ra l i a must:

a)

develop regional c l imate

models;

b) predic t regional c l imate changes;

c)

i de n t i f y consequent environmental and

socio-economic

impacts;

d) ensure tha t i n t e rna t iona l research t akes in to

account southern hemisphere concerns ;

e)

pa r t i c ipa t e in

in te rna t iona l

research

programs such

as the World Climate Research Frograrnrne and t he

In t e rna t iona l Geosphere-Biosphere

Programme

IGBP);

f )

formulate

pol icy

responses

to

these

changes;

and

g) formulate pol icy

responses

to reduce the bui ld-up

of

greenhouse gases .

We cannot

e f fec t i ve l y

assess greenhouse impacts

or

formulate

po l icy

responses wi thout

a

predic t ive

capac i ty , which

we l ack .

9. Current support

fo r

greenhouse

research i s inadequate:

a) Aus t ra l i an

Research

Council

funding

i s i n su f f i c i en t

fo r

greenhouse

research . The Council cannot fund

non-educat ional

i n s t i t u t i o n s eg

CSIRO

and

BOM);

b)

CSIRO has d iver ted 2m from

o ther projec t s

but

cannot

fur the r rea l loca te appropr ia ted funds without damaging

i t s e f fo r t s in o ther equal ly high p r i o r i t y areas ;

c) OM es tab l i shed

the National

Climate

Centre

from

with in

exis t ing resources in 1983, and has committed

maximum poss ib le e f fo r t to

the

c l imate i s sue s ince

the

es tabl i shment of the World

Climate

Programme

in

1979. BOM's cl imate networks and data banks must

be

upgraded

i f

t i s to

meet

c l imate monitor ing

requirements in the 1990s. I t cannot d ive r t

funds

CABINET-IN-CONFIDENCE

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4

to s t rengthen i t s research;

(d)

othe r Government

research programs

(eg

adminis te red

by

the

Departments o f

Primary Indus t r i e s

and

Energy

and Heal th and

Community

Services) address

greenhouse i s sues

only

i nd i r ec t ly .

10. Furthermore, greenhouse research

must

be

co-ord ina ted

i f

Aust ra l ia

is

to

develop

an

e f fec t i ve s t r a t egy .

STR TEGY

11.

We propose

the fol lowing

research

s t r a t egy se t out a t

Attachment D and

supplemented by Attachments

E

and

F):

(a)

fund an acce le ra t ed program of modell ing of regional

c l imate changes by CSIRO

and

BOM (annual funding o f

3.462m (with 0.405m in

1988/89)

p lus one of f

expendi ture on cap i t a l equipment o f 1.670m); and

(b) es t ab l i sh a Nat iona l Greenhouse Advisory Committee

to provide

exper t s c i e n t i f i c

advice

to

Government

on

greenhouse

i s sues genera l ly

and,

in p a r t i c u l a r ,

advice on

p r io r i t y

areas fo r

fur the r

greenhouse

research bas ic sc ience , impacts and

responses) and

se t

ob jec t ives

fo r a dedica ted

research

gra n t s

scheme,

with a

view

to

having

a

scheme

opera t iona l

in

1990/91. The

Committee

would be

serv iced

by

DASETT.

Annual

admin i s t ra t ive cos t s

of

the

Committee,

inc luding es tabl ishment , s a l a r i e s

and on

cos t s for the s e c r e t a r i a t are

0.086m

in 1988/89 and

0.

634m in 198 9/9 0.

(Funding

from

199

0/91 onwards

w i l l be the sub jec t of a fu r the r submiss ion;

however, i t i s proposed a t t h i s s tage

tha t the

gran t s

scheme

be

1.5m

in

1990/91

r i s i n g

to

3.0m

in

1991/92

with

annual

admin i s t ra t ive cos t s fo r the

Committee and scheme of 0.714m).

This

s t ra tegy i s

designed to

complement

the

sc ience

i n i t i a t i v e s

agreed

to in

Minute No.l2289

of

6

March

1989 and a

Nat iona l

Climate

Program

being

developed by

BOM in

consu l t a t ion with CSIRO and DASETT, and othe rs .

12.

This

wil l

permi t us to develop pol icy

and adminis t ra t ive

i n i t i a t i v e s (funding of 0.148m in

1988/89

and 1.006m in

1989/90

- w i t h ant ic ipa ted

funding

o f 1.006m in

1990/91 and

0.589m in

1991/92)

to address

the

causes

and impacts

of

the

greenhouse

e f f ec t within Aust ra l i a and to

p a r t i c i p a t e


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CABINETsiN CONFIDENCE

e f f e c t ive ly in major

in te rna t iona l

greenhouse a c t i v i t i e s . An

in te r -agency

committee (sponsored

by DASETT

and

BOM and

cha i red by DASETT w i l l co-ordinate

greenhouse i s sues and

ensure

l i a i s on

with

bodies

such

as DPIE and DFAT,

having

important

r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s fo r aspec ts

of

pol icy formula t ion .

Co-operat ion with the Sta t e s w i l l cont inue us ing e x i s t i ng

Commonwealth/State mechanisms

such as

m in i s t e r i a l counci l s .

13.

As t h i s

i s

a

global

problem Aust ra l i a must

r ep resen t

southern

hemisphere

i n t e r e s t s in in te rna t iona l fo ra .

Spec i f i c

funding

is necessary

for

the

WMO/UNEP

IPCC

Aus t ra l i an

input

to be co-ordina ted j o i n t l y

by

OM and DASETT ,

the

UNEP

Climate Impact Stud ies Programme, and

the

IGBP in p a r t i c u l a r

( funding

o f

0.100m

in

1988/89 and 0.280m

in

1989/90

- w i t h

ant ic ipa ted

funding

of

0.250m in

1990/91

and

0.050m in

1991/92) , de ta i l s a t Attachment D.

OPI IONS

14. There are two opt ions:

{a) cont inue the e x i s t i ng low l eve l ,

ad

hoc

approach

to

r esea rch , impact assessment and response development .

In essence , t h i s

ignores

the problem and r e s t s

upon

the assumption t ha t a so lu t ion acceptable

to

Aust ra l i a

w i l l

be

found

i n t e rna t iona l ly .

Such

inac t ion

wil l

be

p o l i t i c a l l y damaging;

or

(b)

implement

the program

ou t l ined

in paragraphs

11-13

above and

de ta i led in

Attachments

D

E and F .

15.

Action

i s requi red now:

(a)

i n t e rna t i ona l l y ,

governments are

recognis ing the

need

for a c o ~ r d i n t e d response.

Heads o f

Government

met in

The

Hague on 11 March.

(The

re su l tan t dec la ra t ion , which Aust ra l ia s igned, c a l l s

for urgent i n t e rna t iona l act ion

to combat

any

fur the r

warming of the atmosphere.) There are two

fu r the r i n t e rna t iona l m in i s t e r ia l meetings l a t e r

t h i s

year .

Aust ra l ia

must

ac t ,

and be seen

to

be

ac t ing ,

with

the same urgency. We must

be

able to

press

our

cons iderable t rade and domest ic i n t e r e s t s

as


ac t ion

proceeds;

(b) as

greenhouse

research develops i n t e rna t iona l ly t he

demand

fo r

spec ia l i s t s

i s

inc reas ing .

Aust ra l i a w i l l

be

unable to compete for

t he i r

se rv ices un les s


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c )

C INET1N CONFIDENCE

greenhouse

research resources a re vas t ly enhanced;

and

p o l i t i c a l l y ,

the

Federa l

Government must

be

seen

to

be

t ak ing dec i s ive and p o s i t i v e ac t ion on greenhouse

i s sues s imi la r to our ac t ion

in implementing

ozone

pro tec t ion

measures ) .

EMPLOYMENT CONSIDERATIONS

16. The program

proposed

w i l l

require

approximately 30

e x t r a

s t a f f

fo r CSIRO outs ide

ASL

c on t ro l s ) , 5 fo r BOM, and 10 fo r

DASETT

(12 from 1990/91) ,

to

be

discussed

with the Minis te r

for Finance.

FINANCIAL CONSIDERATIONS

17.

The

proposed program (to be appropr i a t ed to DASETT w i l l

cos t

1.039m

in

1988/89 and

6.752m

in 1989/90. (Ongoing

funding

from

1990/91 w i l l

be the sub jec t

of a

fu r t h e r cab in e t

submiss ion

- wi th an t i c ipa ted cos t s

of 6.932m

in 1990/91 and

7.815m

in

1991/92.) J::A3tails

of cos t ings a re

summarised in

Attachment D.

COMMUNICATION

18. We

propose

t ha t the Prime

Minis te r

i s sue a media

s ta tement announcing the research i n i t i a t i v e (as

ou t l ined

in

Attachment A as soon

as

poss ib le

a f t e r

the dec i s ion i s taken.

The

s t r a t e g y

ou t l i ne

a t

Attachment

A,

Appendix

1)

pr imar i ly

sugges t s

themes

fo r

responses to

media o r o ther

fol low-up

i nqu i r i e s

and

does not envisage a

major campaign.

A longer

term educa t ion campaign

to

r a i s e community awareness of the

greenhouse

i s sue

and

gain support fo r Government

a c t i v i t i e s

in

the area w i l l be submit ted to the M i n i s t e r i a l Committee on

Government Information and

Advert i s ing

for

approva l . I t i s

envisaged t ha t

such

an educa t iona l campaign

wi l l

include

brochures , school k i t s and s imi la r ma te r i a l . I t

i s

a l s o

l i ke ly to recommend

fu r t h e r greenhouse

conferences .

RECOMMENDATIONS

19.

We

recommend t ha t Cabinet :

(a) agree t h a t a s t rong

commitment

i s

requi red to

address the

greenhouse

i s sue both na t iona l ly and

i n t e rna t iona l ly with

co-ord ina t ing

r e s pons ib i l i t y to

be with the Minis te r

fo r

the Arts , Spor t ,

the

Environment, Tourism and

Ter r i t o r i e s ;

CABINET 1 N CONFl DENCE

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CABINET1IN CONFIDENCE

(b)

agree to a comprehensive s t ra tegy

to

addre ss

greenhouse i s sues compris ing

a co-ordina ted core

research program (on regional c l imate

modell ing)

plus a

dedica ted

research

gran t s scheme

fo r

implementat ion in 1990/91) and support f o r

development of nat ional

and

in te rna t iona l

responses ;

(c)

agree to expending 7.79lrn (which

inc ludes

s t a f f and

suppor t

cos ts )

dur ing

1988/89 and 1989/90:

19 8 8/8 9 1 . 0 39m

1989/90

6.7

52m

(d) note

tha t the

fol lowing add i t iona l

resources wil l

be

r equ i red

in

subsequent years inc luding s t a f f and

suppor t

cos t s ) :

1990/91

1991/92

6.9

3 m

7 .815m

e ) agree to

es tab l i sh ing a Nat iona l Greenhouse

Advisory

Committee

to

provide exper t advice

on

greenhouse

i s sues , inc luding

p r i o r i t y

areas and ob jec t ives fo r

fur the r research ( to

be serv iced by DASETT};

f) agree t ha t Commonwealth

ac t ion on greenhouse i s sues be

co-ord ina ted by an in te r -agency committee sponsored

j o i n t l y

by

DASETT

and

BOM

and

cha i red

by

DASETT;

(g)

note

t ha t

agreement to recommendation (c) w i l l

requ i re add i t iona l ASL (CSIRO 4 in 1988/89 and

approximately 30

in 1989/90 outside ASL con t ro l s ) ,

DASETT 2 in 1988/89

and 10

ASL in 1989/90 and BOM 5

ASL

in

1989/90)

with de ta i l s to

be

se t t l ed with t he

Minis te r

fo r Finance;

(h)

note t ha t the

Minis te r

for the

Arts , Spor t ,

the

Environment , Tourism and Te r r i t o r i e s w i l l r e por t

back to Cabinet

before the

end of 1989 on

fur the r

act ion requi red

to address greenhouse

c l imate change

i s sues , inc luding funding requirements fo r 1990/91

and

1991/92; and

i )

agree to

the Prime

Minis ter i s su ing

a

pres s

re l ease

along

the l ines of Attachment A.

Graham

Richardson

29 March

1989

Barry Jones

29

March 1989

Stewar t West

30 March 1989


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DR FT MEDI

RELEASE

GOVERNMENT

NNOUNCES 7.8 MILLION

GREENHOUSE STR TEGY

Government support

fo r a nat ional research program

on

greenhouse r e l a t e d

c l imate

and environment changes was

announced today

by

the

Prime

Minis ter .

7.8 mil l ion

wi l l

be

provided during 1988/89 and 1989/90

for

r esea rch

and pol icy suppor t . A Nat iona l Greenhouse Advisory

Committee

of up to s ix

exper t s

w i l l

be

appointed to

provide

exper t s c i e n t i f i c

advice to

the

Government on

greenhouse

i s sues . A

key t a sk

for the Nat iona l Greenhouse

Advisory

Committee w i l l be to provide advice on p r i o r i t y areas

f o r

fu r t he r

greenhouse

research

(bas ic s c ience ,

impacts

and

responses) and se t ob jec t ives fo r a

dedicated

research gran t s

scheme, with a view to

the

scheme

ge t t ing

underway in 1990/91.

The

Committee

w i l l a l so promote publ ic unders tanding o f

)

greenhouse i s sues .

The Prime Minis ter

sa id 'The

greenhouse

i s sue

i s one of the

most severe

environmental

c r i s e s fac ing

Aus t ra l i a and t he

world. Research i n to

the greenhouse e f fec t i s c ruc i a l .

Without t Aust ra l i a w i l l not be

able

to

ident i fy

and adapt t o

environmental changes caused

by the

greenhouse

e f f ec t . A

na t iona l greenhouse research

program

i s

pa r t

of t h i s

Government 's commitment

to pro t e c t our

envi ronment .

The

Government

would

prov ide 5.54 mil l ion during

1988/89

and

1989/90 to CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

as

p a r t of the

na t iona l greenhouse

research program.

As p a r t

of

the na t iona l

greenhouse

research

program

the

Government w i l l

suppor t

the World Climate Impact Studies

)

Programme

being

undertaken

by the

United Nat ions

Environment

Programme and w i l l a l so

examine

the d e s i r a b i l i t y of

e s t a b l i s h ing a comprehensive nat ional c l imate

program

l inked

i n to the World Meteorologica l Organisat ion World Climate

Programme

and

the

Second

World

Climate Conference in

1990.

Funds

wi l l a l so

be provided to the

AcadeiT

of Science

to

a s s i s t the In t e rna t iona l Geosphere-Biosphere Program. This

program

s tud ies

the

i n t e rac t i ve

phys ica l , chemical

and

b io log ic a l processes t ha t

regu la te

the t o t a l ea r th

system.

These

i n i t i a t i v e s

w i l l

a s s i s t

A u s t r a l ia s

ac t ive

par t i c i pa t i on

in i n t e rna t iona l work on greenhouse

i s sues , inc luding the

development of po l icy responses to reduce the cont inuing

bu i ld -up

in

the atmosphere of

greenhouse

gases ,

and to

dea l

with the consequences

of poss ib le

c l imate and sea l e v e l

changes .

The Prime Minis te r sa id 'Ongoing

funding

requirements fo r the

greenhouse s t r a t e g y f o r 1990/91 onwards

wil l

be considered

by

the Government l a t e r

t h i s year .

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MEDI STR TEGY OUTLINE

TT CHMENT A

APPENDIX

Because the

media s ta tement de l ibe r a t e ly does not

at tempt to sugges t

the research

program i s a s o lu t ion to the

greenhouse e f f e c t

or to dress up the

program as

a major

s t r a t egy

e i the r

of

which

claims

could

lead

to

media

and

publ ic

c r i t i c i sm) the pr imary

communication s t ra tegy

i s not

to

under take a proac t ive follow-up campaign.

There

wi l l

be media i n t e r e s t and, as

a

r e su l t

t

i s

recommended t ha t when Minis ters respond to reques ts

f o r

i n t e rv iews , ta lk-back

appearances,

e t c , the fol lowing po in t s

be borne in

mind:

1 . The

r esea rch

wi l l be

prac t i ca l and peop le -o r i en ted , eg:

research to pre d ic t

the

l i ke l y cl imate changes

in

pa r t i cu l a r

areas

research

on what the

poss ib le

e f f ec t s of the cl imate

changes

may

be:

what

wi l l

the

e f f ec t s be

on

a gr i c u l tu r e : wi l l

farming areas

need to change

crops / farming

techniques ; how

wi l l

weeds/pes ts

be

a f fec ted ;

wi l l

presen t s to rm water

dra inage

and

dam

systems

cope;

wi l l s o i l eros ion and s a l i n i t y problems

inc rease ;

wi l l coas ta l

eros ion i nc rease .

2.

The

ex ten t

and

e f fec t s of greenhouse cl imate change need

to be more r e l i ab l y pred ic t ed to prevent bad p lann ing .

Knee- jerk

reac t ions

now

based on the

r ecen t

scenar ios

could be very

expensive eg much more s t r i ngen t

bu i ld ing

regu la t ions

for

both r e s iden t i a l and commercial

prope r t i e s ) .

e need to be more

ce r t a i n

exac t ly what

ac t ion i s r equ i red to ensure

money

and e f fo r t are not

wasted.

The

p a r a l l e l

between the

proposed research and

the

value

of Census da ta fo r fu tu re planning could

be

mentioned.

3. The r esea rch i s

not

the f i r s t or only th ing being done

ozone protec t ion

measures

are being

implemented.

4. The r esea rch wi l l con t r ibu te to

the

g loba l body

of

knowledge

on the

sub jec t and wi l l help ensure Aust ra l i an

dimensions

are taken

in to

account when

i n t e rna t i ona l

or

regional organ i sa t ions are cons ider ing

t h e i r

responses to

the

problem.

5.

The t rade and economic

aspects of the

greenhouse

i ssue

should be played

down

as emphasis

on

them

might lead

to

c r i t i c i sm t ha t the Government i s ca te r ing to

sec t i ona l ,

moneymaking

i n t e r e s t s

r a the r

than

protec t ing the qua l i t y

of

l i f e

of

a l l Aust ra l i ans .

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C I N E I N - C O N F I D E M J . .

=

v H M J m T . B

TH GREENHOUSE EFFE T

KEY F CTS

1 . The a tmospher ic concen t r a t ion of seve ra l gases

s

increas ing

f a s t - l eve l s o f carbon dioxide , t he most

impor tan t

greenhouse gas , a re expected to i nc rease

30

percen t n

t he

next

50

yea rs .

2

~ T h e . . . b u i - - l d - u p ofi-greenhouse 'gase

s-coui-d

-ncrea S'e

bhe

0

E a r t h s sur face t empera ture by between 1 .5 and 4.5 C by the

year

2030:

(a) t h i s

w i l l

have a major e f f e c t on cl imate - dur ing

t he l a s5 Ice

Age,

t he E a r t h s t emperature was only

about 5 C colde r than t i s

now;

(b)

n nor thern l a t i t udes , win te r s

w i l l

be

s ho r t e r and

wet t e r ,

summers longer and

dr i e r ;

sub t rop ica l

reg ions

w i l l become

even

dr i e r

than they

are

now;

t r op i ca l ones even wet t e r ;

(c) t hese changes

w i l l

have

subs tan t i a l

bu t

unpred ic tab le

e f f ec t s on ag r i cu l t u r e and na tu r a l

ecosystems;

and

(d) as t he oceans warm

up

and expand, sea

l eve l s w i l l

r i se , l ead ing to severe f looding over low- ly ing

l and.

3 . Climat ic changes of

t h i s type w i l l l ead to l a r ge

reg iona l changes

n

s o i l

mois ture , increased

dese r t i f i c a t i on ,

coas ta l

f looding

and

eros ion, s a l i n i t y

problems,

s torm

damage

and ser ious d i s rup t ion to coas t a l se t t l ement s and a c t i v i t i e s .

) .

These

changes

w i l l

be

subs tan t i a l

and

are

l i ke ly t o

occur

randomly.

There w i l l

be inc reased c l ima te

va r i a b i l i t y

and d i s r up t i on wel l

befo re

2030.

:IMPACTS

5. The changes

w i l l

have major

environmental and

socio-economic impacts

fo r

Aus t r a l i a . Sectors l i k e l y

to

be

a f fec ted

inc lude:

(a) Agr icu l tu re

A

warmer

c l ima te

i s

l i ke ly t o move t he a reas

su i t ab le

fo r

growing

spec i f i c

crops , such as wheat, towards

t he

po l e s . I f s o i l s

in

t hese a reas a re poorer ,

yie lds w i l l

f a l l . Marginal

ag r i cu l t u r e - as pr ac t i s ed , f o r

example,

n

t he

drought-prone Sahel - w i l l probably s u f f e r most

because o f d i f f i c u l t i e s

n

adapt ing to

t he

new

condi t i ons .

Changes

in

ag r i cu l t u r e w i l l , in t u r n , produce

cascade

e f f e c t s

throughout

soc ie ty ,

a l t e r i n g

t he

v i a b i l i t y

o f

farming, _ a g r i c u l t u r a l employment, commodity

pr i ce s ,

and

p a t t e r n s o f

world

t r ade .


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C B M E N T

B

b) Natural

ecosystems

Changes

in

natura l

ecosystems wil l inc lude expansion of

grass l and

and

de s e r t areas with fores ted areas shr inking

and

moving polewards . Problems

such

as s o i l erosion

could become more acute .

c) Urban i n f r a s t ruc tu re

warmer

cl imate might make some

c i t i e s

unbearably hot .

w e t t e r -

o r - d r i : e r - c 1 : i m a t e - w i l l - - a f f e c t - w a t e r - u s e ~ a n d

long- te rm planning,

perhaps

making l a rge

reservoi rs

o r

o the r pro j ec t s use less

long before

t he i r

normal

50-year

l i f e t ime had elapsed .

d) Por t s and c oa s t a l communities

As the oceans expand, sea

l eve l s

wi l l r i s e caus ing

f looding

o f low- lying a reas . While r i che r na t ions

can

a f fo rd

to

pro t ec t themselves

as

the Dutch

have done

for

centur ies)

poorer

na t ions

wil l

have

no

choice

bu t

to

lose

l a rge areas of prec ious l and

to

the sea .

Most o f A u s t r a li a s popula t ion i s l oca ted on o r near t he

coas t . Poss ib le impacts range from extensive commercial

and personal

proper ty

damage, to

dis rupt ion to

shipping ,

t r ade , f i s h ing

and

l o s s

o f

beaches.

e)

Health

Trop ica l d i seases wi l l become more widespread, eg

malar i a and dengue fever , and mor ta l i ty o f the aged in

extreme weather events wi l l

increase .

f)

Energy

In t e rna t i ona l remedial

act ion , eg moves away

from

fo s s i l

fue l usage, could

have

s i gn i f i can t e f f ec t s upon

the

Aus t ra l ian

economy.

6.

Some

o f

the problems

discussed

above

a l ready a f f ec t

many

count r i es .

Global

warming wi l l

exacerbate

them, dis loca t ing

bommunities, dis rupt ing

t rade ,

genera t ing urgent

a i d demands,

and caus ing

i n t e rna t i ona l

t ens ions and conf l i c t s .

7 . Without de t a i l ed resea rch t

wil l

be imposs ible to

formulate responses

to

the

greenhouse

e f f ec t

o r

to

minimise

i t s impact upon

our

environment and economy.

8.

Government planning and

pr iva te decis ion making has long

assumed cl imate s t a b i l i t y .

Western soc i e t i e s

in

pa r t i cu l a r ,

are locked

in to

i ndus t r i a l and

agr i cu l t u ra l p rac t i ces

and

l i f e s ty l e s

which genera te greenhouse gases .

9.

For tuna te ly some

problems

which f low from the greenhouse

e f fec t a re

al ready

under s tudy eg land degradat ion ,

coas ta l

management,

popu la t ion

pressures .

10.

Act ion

i s underway

o r

proposed

i n t e rna t i ona l l y

to :

a) use energy b e t t e r ;

.CABIN ET 1 N CONFl DENCE

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CABIN

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(b) reduce

f o s s i l

fue l use;

(c) encourage r e fo r e s t a t i on and discourage l and

c l ea r i ng ;

(d)

develop

laws

fo r

p ro tec t ion

o f t he

atmosphere ;

(e)

con t ro l

t h e product ion

and use o f ozone

dep le t ing

subs tances .

More

de ta i l ed

---nformatron i-s -conta-in-ed

-in4:he-unteU:-Nati-ons

Environmental Program paper which

fo l lows.

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T T C H M E N T B

CABIN _ .IN CONFIDENC

PPENDIX 1

UNITED NATIONS

ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME

UNEP Environment Brief No 1

the changing

tmos ere

Chemical pollution

is changing

the

structure of the Earth s atmosphere. threatening

t6 alter the climate and expose human populations to higher levels of dangerous

ultraviolet radiation. This publication.

the

first in a series of UNEP briefing

documents. summartzes

what

is

known about

the two

major

effects involved:

the build-up of

greenhouse

gases in the atmosphere. and damage to the ozone layer.

J

Key facts

he

greenhouse

effect

the atmospheric concentration of st>veral gases Is

Increasing

fast ... levels of

carbon

dioxide. the most

Important greenhouse

gas. are ex-pected to Increase

30

percent

In the next

50 years

this

build-up

of gases Is likely to Increase the

Earth s surface temperature by between 1.5 and

4.5

c by the year 2030

this

would be

suffici ent to have a major effect

on

climate

.. .

during the last

Ice Age.

the Earth s

temperature was only about 5 colder than t Is

now

n

northern latitudes. winters would be shorter and

wetter, summers longer and

drier

... sub-tropical

regions might become

even

drier than

they

are

now

and tropical ones even wetter

these changes would

have major

but

unpredictable

effects

on agriculture

and natural eco-systems

as the oceans wanned

up

and

expanded.

sea levels

would

rise

leading

to severe f1oodtng over low-level

land

there

is an urgent need for

International

action to

minimiZe the future greenhouse warming and Its

social effects

he

ozone

layer

chemicals

produced by tndustr1al activity

are

Interfering with

the

way ozone Is

created and broken

down.

threatening

to reduce Its

concentration

in

the

upper

atmosphere

because ozone filters out much of the Sun s

ultraviolet

radiation

. human

populations

may soon

be

exposed to

higher levels of a potentially

dangerous form of radiation

overall ozone levels have not yet fallen -

though

measurements made

during

the Antarctic

spring

reveal

that

levels

there

have dropped

4{)

percent

n

just a few years

scientists

predict

that

tf

chemicals

continue to be

produced

at

current rates,

ozone levels

tn

the

upper

atmosphere will fall by a

few percent durtng

the first

half of

the

next century

this could lead to Increased skin cancer and eye

disease, smaller

crop

and timber

yields.

and damage

to

ocean

ecology

a

convention to

protect

the

ozone layer has

been

signed by many states but has yet to come Into force

...

further

International action Is planned to restr1ct

the production

and

use

of the

most

seriously

Implicated

chemicals

C S I N E ~ Q E N C E

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CABINE siN CONFIDENCE

A'PTACHt-lENT B

APPENDIX 1

The greenhouse problem

The atmosphere

that surround

s

the

Earth

plays

a critical role in

maintaining even

temperatures

on

the Earth s

surface.

Like

the glass

in

a greenhouse . the

atmosphere

absorbs some

of the

long-wave

radiation emitted by the Earth. and

radiates energy back at

the

Earth. If

the atmosphere were not present.

temperatures on

the

Earth

would

be

much

lower than they are

.

But Industrial activity

is

changing

the atmosphere 's

structure

. s

gases

like

carbon

dioxide are

produced

and released into

the

atmosphere. they absorb

more of

the Earth s radiation. and

return

more

of

t

back to the Earth . This

ergy. which

would

otherwise

cape harmlessly

I

nto space.

Is

already Increasing the

Earth s

surface

temperature. though so far

rbon dioxide : more and more

1750-100

-

I

150

I

I

1

40

I

I

/

130

120

I

-

10

T

1800 1900 2000

u) only small

amounts

(about 0 .5 ' C

over the past 120 years).

Carbon d ioxide is the most

i

mportant

of the greenhouse

gases

.

- d is produced

primarily

when

il

fuels

are

burnt to provide

power. Levels

of

ca

rbon

dioxide in

the atmosphere

have already

Increased

by

some

5

percent since

the

Industrial

Re\'olution: they

are

e;>;pected

to increase

by a

further

30

percent

in the next

50 years.

Many

other gases

also have a

greenhouse

effect. These include

mtrous oxide

(laughing

gas).

methane.

ozone

and chem icals

us

ed

in

refrigerat

ion and other industries

called chlorofluorocarbons

(CFCs

for short) . The concentrations

of

these gases in the atmosphere are

much lower

than

that

of

carbon

dioxide

but

they are increasing.

and

many of them

produce

a very strong

greenhouse effect.

Sc

ientists

calculate that

over the next

half

century or

so the

temperature rise

produced

by increasing

concentrations

of carbon dioxide

will be matched by the effect of the

other

greenhouse

gases. The carbon

dioxide effect. in other

words

. will be

doubled.

How much is the temperature

likely

to rise?

By

making

assumpt

i

ons about

how

much

of

each gas

is

likely to

be

released

into

the

atmosphere

.

and

feeding this

Information Into computers that ran

model

the atmosphere s

behaviour.

scientists can

make

rough

es

timates

of what Is liktly to

happtn . Current precllt'

llons

are

that the greenhous

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C B N E ~ I N C O N F I D E N C E

ATTACH1 1ENT B

APPENDIX 1

Ozone: the umbrella against the ultraviolet

The ozone layer: less ozone means more ultraviolet

ultraviolet

absort ed

by ozone

..

.

. .

:/ t

-...

Ozone. a

gas composed

of

three

gen atoms. surrounds

the Earth

, a delicate veil. protecting

the

planet and Its Inhabitants from

the

dlrt>ct

gaze

of the

Sun.

Ozone Is our

umbrella against the ultraviolet.

Were It

not

present In the

atmosphere. ltthallevtls of

ultra\1okt radlallon

from thC

Sun

would

reach

the

Earth s

surface.

Ozone Is

found up

to hC'IJ hts of

about

60

km.

It

Is

most dense 20-25

km up but

evC n htre only om

moltcule In

I 00

000 is ozone. If all

~ o z o n e we're collected at thC

'l h s

surface.

It would form a layer

only about 3 mm

thick.

But because

there is so

little

ofit. and because

its

presence 1s so important.

small

changes m

ozone concentrations

Jd have

dramatic

effects on life

Earth

.

Ozone

IS produC"ed naturally. from

oxygen. high In the atmosphere.

Natural

forces

also break it down.

with the

result that

the gas

is

constantly being created and

destroyed.

The speeds at

which

these reactions oc cur determine

how much ozone there is in

the

atmosphere.

And

these speeds can

be

greatly

influenced by chemicals

in

the

atmosphere which act as

catalysts

in

the

reactiOns.

speeding

them

up 1.1.1thout themselves being

destroyed .

Several chemicals

used

in

or

produced

by industry greatly affect

the

speed at which

ozone

is broken

down.

These include the

chlorofluorocarbons

(CFCs)

which

arc

used as the propellants

tn

aerosols. m

refngeratlon terh

nolocy. as

< ; ' a m - b l o \ ~ 1 1 1 ~

a ~ e n t s

space

----.._ 6 km

~ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - , - - - ,

atmosphere

ozone depleted

~

h1gher levels of ultraviolet

. -

Documents

1988-89 cabinet paper 6363