13615895 Saul Griffith an Engineers Approach to Climate Working Backwards From Where We Want to Be

8/2/2019 13615895 Saul Griffith an Engineers Approach to Climate Working Backwards From Where We Want to Be

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HOW MUCH POWERDO I USE?


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40 apples per secondfrom the ground to the

table = 40 Watts.

Power is measured in Watts (W).1 Watt = 1 Joule / second


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Running this Apple laptop takes 40 Watts.


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Power, in Watts, is like an average.The average amount of energy, in Joules, you use each second.

So now you can add all these things.Yearly things + Monthly things + Daily things = your lifestyle in watts.

The Power of me:Calculating my energy consumption

=

=

7,462 Watts

170 Watts

90 Watts=

If you do something monthly (like your electricity bill), it contributes:

If you do something daily (like drink 1 Energy drink), it contributes:


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Me


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7 000 000 000 People


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0 10 20 30 40 50

5

10

15

20

25

30

1 Qatar2 Iceland3 United Arab Emirates4 Bahrain5 Luxembourg6 Netherlands Antilles7 Kuwait8 Trinidad and Tobago9 Canada

10 United States11 Brunei Darussalam12 Finland13 Norway14 Sweden15 Australia

16 Belgium17 Saudi Arabia18 Singapore19 Gibraltar

20 Netherlands21 Oman22 France23 Russian Federation24 New Zealand25 Korea, Rep26 Czech Rep27 Germany28 Austria29 Japan30 United Kingdom31 Denmark32 Ireland33 Switzerland34 Estonia35 Turkmenistan36 Slovenia37 Slovakia38 Kazakhstan39 Cyprus40 Spain41 Libyan Arab Jamahiriya42 Israel43 Italy44 Ukraine45 Greece46 Belarus47 Lithuania48 South Africa49 Hungary50 Bulgaria

kilowatts

US Average

Global

Average

Per capita power use 2003


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0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 60000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

AveragePerPersonPowerinWatts

Population in Millions.

Asia (excluding middle east)

1450 Watts

Central America & the Carribean

1800 Watts

South America

1580 Watts

Middle-east & North Africa

2300 Watts

Europe

5400 Watts

north america

11400 Watts

Energy Use by Region

Power Watts/person


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0 10 20 30 40 50

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1 UNITED_STATES_OF_AMERICA

2 USSR3 CHINA_MAINLAND

4 GERMANY_COMBINE

5 JAPAN_COMBINE

6 UNITED_KINGDOM

7 YUGOSLAVIA_COMBINE

8 FRANCE_INCLUDING_MONACO

9 INDIA

10 CANADA

11 POLAND

12 RUSSIAN_FEDERATION

13 ITALY_INCLUDING_SAN_MARINO

14 SOUTH_AFRICA15 MEXICO

16 AUSTRALIA

17 CZECHOSLOVAKIA18 BELGIUM19 SPAIN20 BRAZIL21 REPUBLIC_OF_KOREA22 NETHERLANDS23 ISLAMIC_REPUBLIC_OF_IRAN24 SAUDI_ARABIA25 INDONESIA26 ROMANIA27 DEMOCRATIC_PEOPLES_REPUBLIC_OF_KOREA28 ARGENTINA29 VENEZUELA30 TURKEY31 UKRAINE32 TAIWAN

33 AUSTRIA34 SWEDEN35 HUNGARY36 THAILAND37 DENMARK38 ALGERIA39 BULGARIA40 EGYPT41 GREECE42 SWITZERLAND43 NIGERIA44 MALAYSIA45 FINLAND46 UNITED_ARAB_EMIRATES47 KAZAKHSTAN48 IRAQ

49 COLOMBIA50 PAKISTAN

gigametrict

onsofcarbon

Cumulative national CO2

emissions from fossil-fuel burning, ce-ment manufacture, and gas flaring: 1751-2004


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Out of equilibrium

Atmosphereto Ocean2 GtC/year

Carbon toAtmosphere

8 GtC/year


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Atmospheric CO2

concentration.

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

CO

L

evel(p

pm)

Year

Ice Core 20 year AverageLaw Dome Antarctica

Mauna Loa Direct MeasurementHawaii


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Temperature Changes around the worldin the last quarter of the 20th century

Trends in C per decade

-1 -0.8 +0.8-0.6 +0.6-0.4 +0.4-0.2 +0.20 +1


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The aesthetic choice... The design challenge...

??

??

?


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A1B

A1T

A1FI

A2

B1

B2

IS92a

Scenarios

21002000190018001700

-0.5

0.0

-1.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

10% Species Lost

Entire cities and countries lost to sea level

20-50% Species Lost

1-4 Billion people face water shortages

15-40% Species Lost

450ppm

2.0

Climate models:Physics and chemistry-based computer models of planet

TemperatureRise,

degreesCelsius


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TemperatureRise,

degreesCelsius

15-40% Species Lost

10% Species Lost

1-4 Billion people face water shortages


20-50% Species Lost

450ppm

Scenarios:Guesses at humanity's reactions: "business as usual vs. change"

A1B

A1T

A1FI

A2

B1

B2

IS92a

Scenarios

21002000190018001700

-0.5

0.0

-1.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0


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450ppm

A1B

A1T

A1FI

A2

B1

B2

IS92a

Scenarios

21002000190018001700

-0.5

0.0

-1.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

TemperatureRise,

degreesCelsius

10% Species Lost


20-50% Species Lost1-4 Billion people face water shortages

15-40% Species Lost2.0

Impact Studies:Ecosystem, geopolitical, and other impacts, as predicted by climate modelsand scenarios.

90% Coral Reefs Lost

Resource warsIRREVERSIBLE

FEEDBACKS


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650

550

450ppm CO2

(year2000) 368

Preindustrial 280

What if we choose?

+2oC


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2 TW New Photo Voltaic

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100

m100

m100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100

m

100

m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m100m

100m

100m 100m

10

0m

100

m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100 m of solar cells

every second for the next

25 years. 15% efficiency,

good sitting.

1sec

.

PhotoVoltaic


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2 TW New Solar Thermal

50m

50m

50m

50m5

0m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50

m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

5

0m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m50m

50m 50m

50m 50

m

50

m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50

m

25 years50 mof solar thermalmirrors every second for

the next 25 years. 30%

efficiency, well sited.

1sec

.

SolarThermal


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100m Diameter

100m

Diam

eter

100m

Dia

mete

r

100m

Diameter

100mD

iamet

er

100mDiameter

100mDiameter

100mDiameter

100mDiameter

100mD

iameter

12 3MW wind turbines in

great locations every hour.

Or one 100m diameter

turbine every 5 minutes

6min.

2 TW New Wind Wind


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SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI

1

8765432

1615141312109

23222120191817

30292827262524

31

SAT

March

3 TW New Nuclear

1x 3GW Nuclear plant every

week for the next 25 years.

Nuclear


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2 TW Geothermal

SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI

1

8765432

1615141312109

23222120191817

30292827262524

31

SAT

March

3x 100MW

steam turbines

every day for

next 25 years.

Geothermal


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"The Game Plan" slideset release 1.01, March 21 2008 67

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Depression.

OilCrises.

Re

cession.

Sep.1

1.2

001.


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2008

The year of 'peak waste'


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If the average Americanwere to leave home each

morning with a backpackfull of the fuel they need-ed for their day:

Oil = 31 kg, 67 lb.Coal = 29 kg, 63 lb.Gas = 6 kg, 12 lb.

11 400 Watts.


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What about products?


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Also contains per bottle

Plasticizers 43mg

Estrogen 0.12mg

Carcinogenic Dye 0.19mg

Safe daily values not yet established.

Consumption FactsContainer Mass 1.58oz (44.9g)

Components per container 3

Embodied Energy Per Container

Total 4,609,420 Joules

PETE 38.81g 3,962,400 Joules

HDPE 4.83g 497,500 Joules

Cellulosic 1.34g 149,520 Joules

Recycle rate 23%

Landfill rate 43%

Energy recovery rate 16%

Lost to environmental waste 18%

Personal Energy Footprint % Daily Value*Total 4.54%

Transport (avg.estimated) 0.69%

Manufacture 0.46%

Embodied Energy 2.67%

Refrigeration (avg.estimated) 0.71%

* Personal Energy Footprint is based on a recommended 2000

Watt lifestyle.

The average US consumer has a 11400 Watt lifestyle.

! Consuming this product daily is equivalent to increasing your

energy footprint by 90 Watts.


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+ 0.2 x TWy + 0.15 x TWy + 0.11 x TWy

There's a known and reasonably predictable amount of

carbon left to burn:

1 TWy = 1 Terawatt Year = 3.16 x 1019 Joules.

CO2

ppm

= CO2

ppm

future futurecoal oil gas


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1 Joule of fossil energy used produces 4.9x10-21 ppm increase.

How many ppm to replace every gasoline car in the world (1bN) with a

1000kg electric vehicle? = 0.49 ppm

How many ppm for 250 million new green homes? = 8.9 ppm

How many ppm for installing :

5TW solar = 6.1 ppm3TW wind = 0.55 ppm

2TW geothermal = 0.49 ppm

So there is + 19 ppm right there. Scary.

Might be good to ask questions of form:

How many ppm for 6 bN new laptops? = 0.05 ppm

6 bN cellphones? = 0.03 ppm

6 bN 100 Watt lightbulbs burning for 1 year? = 0.2ppm


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13615895 Saul Griffith an Engineers Approach to Climate Working Backwards From Where We Want to Be