13-14 June 2007Old Parliament House

Canberra

Climate change and transportWhat are the main options?

Trends and projections of transport energy use and emissions

7th BTRE Transport Colloquium Policy Challenges for Future Growth

David Cosgrove

Transport Emission Trends – Underlying effects

Population and demographics

Income levels (and other economic impacts)

Technical innovation

Public preferences (and travel choice behaviour)

Costs of travel (fuel prices, fares, vehicle prices, congestion…)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

19451950

19551960

19651970

19751980

19851990

19952000

20052010

20152020

bil

lio

n p

as

se

ng

er-

kil

om

etr

es

Other

Air

Rail

Bus

Car

Total Australian Passenger task

Base case projections

Source: BTRE (2005), BTRE estimates – for domestic transport. Other = mostly Light Commercial Vehicles (non-business use), plus motorcycles and ferries.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

bill

ion

ton

ne-

kilo

met

res

Air

Sea

Rail

Road

Total domestic freight task

Source: BTRE (2005, 2006), BTRE estimates

Base case projections

Australian Urban TravelTotal metropolitan passenger task for Australia

0

50

100

150

200

250

1945

1948

1951

1954

1957

1960

1963

1966

1969

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

2011

2014

2017

2020

Fin. Year

billi

on p

asse

nger

-km

Other

Rail

Bus

Car

Base-case Projections

Source: BTRE (2005, 2007), BTRE estimates.Other = mostly Light Commercial Vehicles (non-business use), plus motorcycles and ferries.

Worsening congestion trends…

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Sydney

Melb

ourn

e

Brisban

e

Adelai

dePer

th

Hobart

Darwin

Canber

ra

Met

ropoli

tan a

vera

ge

Un

it c

ost

s (c

/km

)

2005

2020

Source: BTRE WP71 (2007)

Energy use by Australian domestic transport

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

Pe

tajo

ule

s o

f e

ne

rgy

us

e

Coal

Aviationturbine fuel

Avgas

Heavydiesel fuels

Automotivediesel

Ethanol

Natural Gas

LPG

Petrol

Source: BTRE (2005, 2002a) – note: includes coal used for electric rail generation

Base case projections

Liquid fuel use – Domestic and International transport

Source: BTRE (2005, 2002a) – note: does not include military fuel use

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70b

illio

n li

tres

Indicative total, adding on an assumed 50% of all fuelconsumed by international transport into and out of Australia

Domestic transport

Base case projections

Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Mode

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

gig

agra

ms

CO

2 eq

uiv

Aviation

Marine

Rail

Road

Base Case Projections

Note: Domestic transport; includes emissions from power generation for electric rail

Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Road Vehicles

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

gig

agra

ms

CO

2 eq

uiv

Motorcycles

Buses

Rigid trucks

Articulatedtrucks

LCVs

Passengercars

Base case projections

Sensitivity of projections to oil prices…

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

CO

2 eq

uiv

alen

t em

issi

on

s (G

g)

Low oil price

Revised Base case

High oil price

Note: End-use emission projections – for crude oil prices between about 35 to 90 dollars US per barrel

Reproduced from Fueling Our Transportation Future by John B. Heywood, Scientific American, September 2006

Reproduced fromGreen sky thinking: eight ways to a cleaner flying future

By Bennett Daviss, New Scientist, 22 February 2007

David Cosgrove Trends and projections of transport energy use and emissions

Climate change and transport - What are the main options?

References and further reading: BTRE (2002a), Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Transport: Australian Trends To 2020, Report 107 BTRE (2002b), Fuel consumption by new passenger vehicles in Australia, Information Sheet 18 BTRE (2005), Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Australian Transport: Base Case Projections To

2020, Report to AGO, http://www.btre.gov.au/docs/commissioned/BTRE_AGO_05.pdf BTRE (2007), Estimating urban traffic and congestion cost trends for Australian cities, Working

Paper 71, http://www.btre.gov.au/docs/workingpapers/wp71/wp71.pdf BTRE (2006), Freight Measurement and Modelling in Australia, Report 112 BTE (2000), Urban Congestion - The Implications for Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Information Sheet

16 BTCE (1996), Transport and Greenhouse: Costs and options for reducing emissions, Report 94 Cosgrove, D. & Mitchell, D. (2001), ‘Standardised Time-series for the Australian Road Transport

Task’, Proceedings of the 24th Australasian Transport Research Forum, Hobart 17 April 2001, Tasmanian Department of Infrastructure, Energy and Resources

Cosgrove, D. C. (2003), Urban Pollutant Emissions From Motor Vehicles: Australian Trends To 2020, Final Draft Report for Environment Australia, June 2003; study conducted for the Department of Environment and Heritage, BTRE 2003; www.btre.gov.au/docs/joint_reports/urbanpollutants_draft.aspx