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Trends in energy for transport — What are the policy implications? Trends and projections of transport energy use and emissions. 14-15 June 2006 Parliament House Canberra. David Cosgrove. BTRE Transport Colloquium Transport Reform, Competition and the Future. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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14-15 June 2006Parliament House
Canberra
Trends in energy for transport —What are the policy implications?
Trends and projections of transport energy use and emissions
BTRE Transport Colloquium Transport Reform, Competition and the Future
David Cosgrove
Transport Energy Trends – Underlying effects
Population increases and demographic effects
Income increases and other economic impacts
Technical innovation or changing technology
Public preferences and behavioural responses
Costs of travel (fuel prices, fares, vehicle prices, congestion etc)
Increasing personal mobility (combined with limited time for daily travel)
Steadily increasing passenger and freight tasks
Steadily increasing transport energy use
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
bill
ion
pa
ss
-km
tra
ve
lled
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
bill
ion
litr
es
fu
el c
on
su
me
d
Total Australian passenger task
National liquid fuel sales
Relationship between per capita travel and per capita income levels
Per capita transport generation
0
5
10
15
20
25
5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0
Per capita income (GDP/population) - thousand dollars
Pe
r c
ap
ita
tra
ns
po
rt t
as
k
(th
ou
sa
nd
pk
m o
r tk
m p
er
pe
rso
n)
Passenger task - pkm per person
Freight task - tkm per person
Modal share of urban transport
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f to
tal u
rban
pas
sen
ger
-kilo
met
res
Cars + LCVs
Rail
Bus
Base-case Projections
Source: BTRE (2005, 2003), BTRE estimates. (LCVs = light commercial vehicles)
Mode share for Non-urban travel
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.919
45
1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
pro
po
rtio
n o
f to
tal p
ass-
km
Car + other
Bus
Rail
Air
Base case projections
Source: BTRE (2005), BTRE estimates
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
19451950
19551960
19651970
19751980
19851990
19952000
20052010
20152020
bil
lio
n p
as
se
ng
er-
kil
om
etr
es
Other
Air
Rail
Bus
Car
Total Australian Passenger task
Base case projections
Source: BTRE (2005), BTRE estimates – for domestic transport. (Other = mostly LCVs + motorcycles)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
bill
ion
ton
ne-
kilo
met
res
Air
Sea
Rail
Road
Total domestic freight task
Source: BTRE (2005, 2006), BTRE estimates
Base case projections
Total motor vehicle travel
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
bil
lio
n k
ilo
met
res
trav
elle
d
Motorcycle
Bus
Articulated
Rigid
LCV
Passenger cars
Source: BTRE (2005, 2003), BTRE estimates
Trends in engine efficiency – New cars
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
L/1
00km
per
GV
M (
ton
nes
)
US light vehicles
Australian light vehicles
Sources: BTRE (2002b), US EPA
Trend in engine power – new light vehicles
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
En
gin
e P
ow
er (
kW)
Source: BTRE (2002b)
Trend in average fuel consumption – New sales
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
Fu
el i
nte
nsi
ty (
L/1
00km
)
Source: BTRE (2002b) – note: all light vehicles, including 4WDs and LCVs
Energy use by Australian domestic transport
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Pe
tajo
ule
s o
f e
ne
rgy
us
e
Coal
Aviationturbine fuel
Avgas
Heavydiesel fuels
Automotivediesel
Ethanol
Natural Gas
LPG
Petrol
Source: BTRE (2005, 2002a) – note: includes coal used for electric rail generation
Liquid fuel use – Domestic and International transport
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
bil
lio
n l
itre
s
Including internationaltransport to and from Australia
Domestic
Source: BTRE (2005, 2002a) – note: does not include military fuel use
Projected trend in Greenhouse Gas Emissions
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
tho
us
an
d t
on
ne
s o
f g
ree
nh
ou
se
ga
s e
mis
sio
ns
Australian domestic civil transport
Total Australian tranport sector - including fuel sales to international carriers andthe military, energy used in fuel refining or conversion, and energy used invehicle manufacture and transport services
Source: BTRE (2005, 2002a) – gigagrams of CO2 equivalent emissions
Total transport sector emissions for Australia – including domestic civil transport, fuel sales to international carriers and the military, energy used in fuel refining or conversion, and energy used in vehicle manufacture and transport services
Trends in noxious urban air emissions
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Ind
ex o
f ve
hic
le e
mis
sio
ns
Particulates
Nitrogen oxides
Carbon monoxide
Hydrocarbons
Source: BTRE (2003), BTRE estimates
NOx
PM
HC
CO
Transport energy trends by mode
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
pet
ajo
ule
s co
nsu
med
Aviation
Marine
Rail
Otherroad
LCVs
Cars
Source: BTRE (2005, 1996) – note: includes Australian fuel sales to international transport
Base case projections
David Cosgrove Trends and projections of transport energy use and emissions
Trends in energy for transport — What are the policy implications?
References and further reading: BTRE (2002a), Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Transport: Australian Trends To 2020, Report 107 BTRE (2002b), Fuel consumption by new passenger vehicles in Australia, Information Sheet 18 BTRE (2005), Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Australian Transport: Base Case Projections To
2020, Report to AGO, August 2005, www.btre.gov.au/docs/monitoringreports/BTRE_AGO_05.pdf
BTRE (2006), Freight Measurement and Modelling in Australia, Report 112 BTE (2000), Urban Congestion - The Implications for Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Information Sheet
16 BTCE (1996), Transport and Greenhouse: Costs and options for reducing emissions, Report 94 Cosgrove, D. & Mitchell, D. (2001), ‘Standardised Time-series for the Australian Road Transport
Task’, Proceedings of the 24th Australasian Transport Research Forum, Hobart 17 April 2001, Tasmanian Department of Infrastructure, Energy and Resources
Cosgrove, D. C. (2003), Urban Pollutant Emissions From Motor Vehicles: Australian Trends To 2020, Final Draft Report for Environment Australia, June 2003; study conducted for the Department of Environment and Heritage, BTRE 2003; www.btre.gov.au/docs/joint_reports/urbanpollutants_draft.aspx
Cosgrove, D.C. & Gargett, D. (1992), ‘The Australian Domestic Transport Task’, Papers of the Australasian Transport Research Forum, vol. 17, part 1