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War and Peacein the Middle East

Yisrael (Bob) Aumann

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Based in part on:

“War and Peace”

http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/

economics/laureates/2005/

aumannlecture.pdf

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• “Wars and other conflicts are among the main sources of human misery.”

• Most attempts to bring about peace have been on a piecemeal, case-by-case basis.

• In the world at whole, people have been fighting since the dawn of history; in Palestine, for some 90 years, since 1922.

• Suggestion: First try to understand the root causes: WHY do people go to war?

• Like one studies disease.

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• Peace-making efforts are almost invariably based on “compromise” suggestions to settle the conflict, but not on the decision making process.

• Key Question: How are decisions reached?

• Answer: A rational decision maker advances his interests, based on his information.

• Key concept:

Rationality

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Important Note

Rationality is not “good.” It’s not something to

be advocated. But by and large, people do try

to promote their goals—i.e., to be rational. So

to understand our world—and more important,

to promote our goals—we should understand

the workings of rationality. That’s what game

theory is all about.

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Can war be rational?

Can strikes be rational?

Can suicide bombers be rational?

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Yes – they CAN be!

We take all the ills of the world, and dismiss

them by calling them irrational. If they are

irrational, we can’t address the problem. If

they are rational, once we understand that

they are, we can try to do something about

them.

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What?

We can change the Incentives

Example: TaxesExample: Market EconomiesExample: Redemption of Prisoners

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Incentives for Peace• Concessions?

Munich 1938: “Peace in our time”

• Disarmament?

The Cold War

• The Pax Romana:

“Si vis pacem, para bellum.”

(If you want peace, prepare for war.)

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• Barack Obama: The belief that peace is desirable is rarely enough to achieve it.

-- Nobel Peace Prize Lecture, Oslo, 10 December 2009

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The Middle East

I want Peace

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How do I get it?

• By shouting “peace, peace”?

• By concessions?

• By “gestures”?

• By expelling ten thousand Jews from their homes, as Israel did six years ago?

No, these bring WAR

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The Summer ’05 Expulsion brought

• The War of summer ’06

• The bombardment of southern Israel, and specifically Sderot

• The “Cast Lead” campaign

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Jeremiah 2, 13

רעות עשה עמי: אותי עזבו, מקור מים שתיםכי •חיים, לחצוב להם בארות -- בארות נשברים

אשר לא יכילו המים.

• For my people did two evils: they left me, the source of living waters, to dig for themselves wells – broken wells, that will not hold water.

15 So, how do we get Peace?• We must convince our Arab cousins that we are here to stay.• After the expulsion, that will be very difficult; it will take years.• So, we must be patient. If we want peace now, we will never

get it; if we are willing to wait, our children and grandchildren may have peace.

• We must sit tight; expel NOBODY – not Arabs, not Jews – from their homes.

• Avoid collective measures (like denying electricity).• If necessary, use focused measures (like Obama).• Improve the quality of life – e.g., enable movement and

commerce as free as possible.• Respond to provocations in a predictable way (information).

• Insist on the Oslo agreement provisions calling for education for peace and tolerance (goals).

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Rationality A rational decision maker advances his

interests, based on his information.

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!תודהThank You!