1 September 2011 Airport Traffic Estimation Presentation for Karaikal Airports Private Limited Airport Traffic Estimation Presentation for Karaikal Airports

1

September 2011

Airport Traffic Estimation Presentationfor

Karaikal Airports Private Limited

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http://www.nagapattinam.tn.nic.in/%20poombuhar.html

2

This document does not carry any right of publication or disclosure to any other party. The information in this document has been compiled by Feedback Infrastructure Services Pvt. Ltd. (Feedback) based on various public domain sources, primary surveys and interviews and Feedback’s proprietary research.

This document is incomplete without reference to, and should be viewed solely in conjunction with, the oral briefing provided by Feedback. Neither this presentation nor any of its contents may be used for any other purpose without the prior written consent of Feedback

3

Agenda

Introduction to the project

Passenger Traffic Potential Estimation

Passenger Traffic Projection

Cargo Traffic Projection

AnnexureA: Econometric Top Down ApproachB: Econometric Bottom Up ApproachC: Econometric Traffic Segmentation Approach

4

Agenda






5

The proposed airport is located near city of Karaikal

The proposed airport site is located between the villages of Ponbethy, Puthakudy, & Varitchakudy in Nedungadu Commune

The airport aims to serve the traffic coming to religious and tourist locations near Karaikal town

Chennai, Madurai & Trichy are the three nearby airports serving the region at present

KARAIKAL

6

The proposed airport targets a small catchment area with very high travel rate

Catchment area of the airport would include

Parangipettai in North, Point Calimere in South, & Kumbakonam, Needamangalam, Alangudi, & Tippirajapuram in East

The catchment area spreads to approx.

80 km in North, 70 km in South, &56 km in East

Primary hinterlandSecondary hinterland

LEGEND:

KARAIKAL

7

Key traffic centres within the catchment area

S. No Location Type of location Distance from Karaikal*

1 Thirunallar Temple Religious 6 km

2 Thirukaddayur Religious 22 km

3 Nagapattinam Religious / Tourism 21 km

4 Chidambaram Temple Religious 64 km

5 Velankanni Church Religious 31 km

6 Nagore Dargah Religious 14 km

7 Mayiladuthurai Religious 39 km

8 Thiruvarur Religious 42 km

9 ONGC Field, Kuthalam Industrial 49 km

10 Marg port Industrial 12 km

11 Point Calimere Sanctuary Tourism 70 km

12 Poompuhar Religious / Tourism 25 km

13 Tranquebar Beach Tourism 14 km

* Distances from Karaikal city centre

8

Agenda






9

Identification of top incom e

segm ents for m ode shift

analysis

Calculation of route w ise

m ode shift probabilities

based on econom etric

analysis of m ode shift

survey data

Application of probabilities

on O D data to find potentia l

traffi c

Identification of top income

segments for mode shift

analysis

Calculation of route wise

mode shift probabilities

based on econometric

analysis of mode shift

survey data

Application of probabilities

on OD data to find potential

traffic

Approach to traffic potential estimation

Defining total passenger traffic in the region using all

modes of transport and on all traffic routes (OD)

Estimation of potential traffic

for the airport from base trafficTOP DOW N APPROACH

Consolidation of a ir traffi c of a ll a irports in the region

Finding corre lation of a ir traffi c w ith re levant

m acroeconom ic variables and se lecting the ones w ith

h igh im pact on traffi c

Projecting future traffi c in re lation to the se lected

variables

TOP DOWN APPROACH

Consolidation of air traffic of all airports in the region

Finding correlation of air traffic with relevant

macroeconomic variables and selecting the ones with

high impact on traffic

Projecting future traffic in relation to the selected

variables

PASSENGER SEGM ENTATION APPROACH

Segm enting total traffi c into local residents, NRI

travellers, & dom estic / fore ign tourists & finding the

segm ent sizes

Estim ate annual traffi c & prepare route & m ode w ise O D

m atrix based on econom etric surveys done at various

locations

PASSENGER SEGMENTATION APPROACH

Segmenting total traffic into local residents, NRI

travellers, & domestic / foreign tourists & finding the

segment sizes

Estimate annual traffic & prepare route & mode wise OD

matrix based on econometric surveys done at various

locations

BOTTOM UP APPROACH

O D & CVC studies / secondary data for key ra il / road

locations

M apping route & transport m ode w ise annual passenger

traffi c in the region

BOTTOM UP APPROACH

OD & CVC studies / secondary data for key rail / road

locations

Mapping route & transport mode wise annual passenger

traffic in the region

Realizable TrafficPotential TrafficBase Traffic Mapping

Projection of likely

traffic at the airportFinding the corre lation of

a irport traffi c share w ith

m acroeconom ic variables

Estim ating the share &

traffi c potentia l of Karaikal

a irport

Finding the correlation of

airport traffic share with

macroeconomic variables

Estimating the share &

traffic potential of Karaikal

airport

Com parison of

potentia l traffi c

num bers from the

three approaches

Selection of

potentia l traffi c

num bers based on

level of detail,

existing air traffi c

and experience

Route w ise analysis

to establish the

like ly traffi c on each

route

Realistic traffi c

estim ates for the

airport

Comparison of

potential traffic

numbers from the

three approaches

Selection of

potential traffic

numbers based on

level of detail,

existing air traffic

and experience

Route wise analysis

to establish the

likely traffic on each

route

Realistic traffic

estimates for the

airport

10

1. Top Down ApproachPotential 3.35 Lac annual passengers or 918 / day in Yr 2014-15

Yr 1 Cargo Traffic (tons)Yr 1 Passenger Traffic (‘000)

- 500

1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000

3,047

226 335

4,009

4,894

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

Passenger Traffic Projection (‘000)

Scenario 1 Low Scenario 2 Moderate Scenario 3 High -

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

178 190 203

140 145 150

318 335 352

Passenger Domestic Passenger InternationalPassenger Total


500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

834 927 1,019

4,247 4,266 4,285

Cargo International Cargo Domestic Details

11

2. Bottom Up ApproachPotential 4.08 Lac annual passengers or 1,118 / day in Yr 2014-15

Yr 1 Passenger Traffic (‘000)


12.38%

22.33%

12.64%7.37%

2.99%

10.46%

5.11%

14.86%

4.99%6.87%

Origin wise traffic contribution

ChennaiCoimbatoreTrichyMaduraiCochinTrivandrumHyderabadBangaloreMumbaiDelhi

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500 4,041

322 725

3,533

Optimistic Scenario Base Scenario

Optimistic Case Base Case - 50

100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

232 223 195 185

427 408

Road Traffic Rail Traffic Total TrafficDetails

12

3. Traveler Segmentation ApproachPotential 4.16 Lac annual passengers or 1140 / day in Yr 2014-15

Yr 1 Passenger Traffic (‘000)


Segment wise Traffic Distribution

Details

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

3,431

4,120 Traffic (Base) Traffic (Optimistic)

Base Case Optimistic Case - 50

100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

52 55 74 78

291 306

416 438

NRI Local PopulationTourist Traffic Total

12%

18%

21%4%

41%

3%

NRILocal ResidentsVelankanniNagoreThirunallarThirukadaiyur

13

Through comparison of outputs of the three approaches, passenger segmentation approach selected as the indicator of potential traffic

Projected traffic through passenger segmentation approach lies between the other two approaches and is a more realistic assessment of the potential traffic for the AirportIn the initial years, the projected traffic lies above the other two approaches and then comes back to central position due to high GDP correlation in the top down approachThis approach is more granular, considers traffic on individual O-D pairs after taking into account passenger preferences and dynamics

- 500

1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 3,818

3,533

3,431

Top Down Bottom Up Passenger Categorization

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

2014

-15

2015

-16

2016

-17

2017

-18

2018

-19

2019

-20

2020

-21

- 50

100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700

226

329

664

Top DownBottom UpPassenger Categorization

14

Agenda






15

Potential v/s Realizable Traffic – Base year 2011-12

Traveler Type Potential Traffic

After Trichy traffic adjustment

Realization factor

Realizable Traffic

Local residents 69,980 35,476 70% 24,833

NRI Travelers 51,737 51,737 75% 38,803

Velankanni 88,236 87,914 70% 61,540

Nagore 17,126 10,937 70% 7,656

Thirunallar 171,929 166,493 70% 116,545

Thirukadaiyur 13,354 13,354 70% 9,348

Pondicherry Traffic 416,012 3,650 100% 3,650

Total 412,362 365,911 262,375

Trichy TrafficAdjustment

Trichy is at distance of 150 km from Karaikal (3.5 hrs by Road and Rail) Due to short distance, taking a flight is infeasible in terms of time and cost factors i.e. time saved does not justify extra cost of flight hence any potential air traffic between Trichy and Karaikal is considered irrelevant

Realization Factor

Realization factor is based on current air traffic & regional understandingThis factor has been included based on the premise that the airport would not be able to achieve 100% of potential traffic because

It will take some time in changing the spend patterns of target passengersIn the initial years aeroplanes wont be available for all routes

16

Traffic ProjectionAirport expected to be operational by 2014-15, with expected 2.59 Lac passenger expected (Base Case)

While projecting traffic, we have assumed two scenarios – Base Case Growth rate and the Optimistic Case Growth RateBase Case Growth Rate = TN GDP Growth RateOptimistic Case Growth Rate = Puducherry Growth Rate

BASE CASE TRAFFIC OPTIMISTIC CASE TRAFFIC

CAGR = 8.08% CAGR = 8.50%

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

262 494

729

1,075

1,580

2,164

2,901

Base Traffic (000 passengers)

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

287 546

827

1,230

1,807

2,475

3,317

Optimistic Traffic (000 passengers)

17

Origin-Destination of first year air traffic (2014-15)Chennai and Coimbatore contribute ~41% of all traffic

Traffic Origin

Total NRI TrafficLocal

ResidentsVelankann

iNagore

Thirunallar

Thirukadaiyur

Chennai 50,085 - 6,872 8,652 3,158 22,055 9,348

Coimbatore 63,752 - 3,975 10,234 455 49,088 -

Madurai 24,630 - 9,081 2,174 3,610 9,765 -

Cochin 17,299 - 563 13,269 - 3,467 -

Trivandrum 8,070 - 1,083 4,239 - 2,749 -

Hyderabad 12,917 - 142 3,326 - 9,450 -

Bangalore 32,006 - 2,201 9,834 - 19,971 -

Mumbai 2,545 - 66 2,047 432 - -

Delhi 255 - 255 - - - -

Calcutta 2,492 - - 2,492 - - -

Goa 295 - 28 267 - - -

Pondicherry 3,650 - - -

Colombo 518 - - 518 - - -

Dubai 6,697 6,467 - 230 - - -

France 806 - - 806 - - -

Germany 1,612 - - 1,612 - - -

Holland 58 - - 58 - - -

Malaysia 14,719 12,934 - 1,784 - - -

Kabul 284 - 284 - - - -

Singapore 13,218 12,934 284 - - - -

Kuwait 6,467 6,467 - - - - -

Total 262,374 38,803 28,483 61,540 7,655 116,545 9,348

18

First year (2014-15) traffic characteristics (1/2)

262,374Traffic share highly skewed in favour of Tamil Nadu destinations hence majority traffic within TN itselfDirect traffic to other destinations limited in initial stages due to less traffic to those destinationsMore than 90% international traffic to South East Asia and Middle EastTraffic comprises largely of NRIs i.e. labour migrations and movements to these regions from Tamil Nadu, which currently use Trichy and Chennai Airport

217996; 83%

44378; 17%

Domestic PassengersInternational Passengers

Domestic vs. International

International Passenger Distribution

27937; 63%

13164; 30%

3277; 7%

South East AsiaMiddle EastRest of World

Domestic Passenger Distribution

142117; 65%

70292; 32%

5587; 3%

Within Tamil NaduOther Southern RegionsRest of India

19

First year (2014-15) traffic characteristics (2/2)

Year wise Weekly Aircraft movement Aircraft type wise

Aircraft operations dominated by ATR type aircraft due to lesser passenger traffic and movement to various destinations

38803; 15%

28483; 11%

61540; 23%

7655; 3%

116545; 44%

9348; 4%

NRILocal ResidentsVelankanniNagoreThirunallar Thirukadaiyur

Passenger Categories

2014-15 2025-26 2035-36 2045-460

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1440

84

0

3862 70 82

10 4 0 01234

52

136

028

106

154

60

128

228

372

Private JetATRCat B (90)Cat C (180)Cat D (220)Total

20

Weekly Aircraft Movement – Projections route wiseOperations will start with 74 weekly flights in year 2014-15 going up to 158 weekly flights in year 2024-25

2014-2015 2024-2025 Category Category

Private Jet (6)

ATR (80)

B Cat (90)

C Cat (180)

C Cat (220)

Private Jet (6)

ATR (80)

B Cat (90)

C Cat (180)

C Cat (220)

Chennai 10 4 14 2 8

Coimbatore 10 4 14 6 8Madurai 8 14 2Cochin 8 10 2 2TrivandrumHyderabad 2 2 2Bangalore 2 4 8 4 4MumbaiDelhiCalcuttaGoaPondicherry 14 36ColomboDubai 4 4 4FranceGermanyHollandMalaysiaKabulSingapore 6 10KuwaitTOTAL 14 38 10 12 0 36 62 4 30 26

21

Operations expected to expand from 158 weekly flights in year 2024-25 going up to 360 weekly flights in year 2044-45

2034-2035 2044-2045 Category Category

Private Jet (6)

ATR (80)

B Cat (90)

C Cat (180)

C Cat (220)

Private Jet (6)

ATR (80)

B Cat (90)

C Cat (180)

C Cat (220)

Chennai 14 6 28 14 28 28

Coimbatore 14 10 28 14 28 38Madurai 14 6 6 14 12 14Cochin 14 6 6 14 14 14TrivandrumHyderabad 6 4 8 8Bangalore 14 10 8 14 4 28MumbaiDelhiCalcuttaGoaPondicherry 78 12ColomboDubai 2 8 10FranceGermanyHollandMalaysia 2 8 8 10KabulSingapore 8 8 8Kuwait 10TOTAL 78 70 0 48 104 0 82 0 130 148

22

Agenda






23

Cargo ProjectionsCargo traffic is expected to be 4266 tonnes in year 1 going up to 13,229 tonnes in year 31

Dom

esti

c +

In

tern

ati

on

al

Carg

o (

in t

on

nes)

Domestic Cargo International Cargo -

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 4,247

834

4,266

927

4,285

1,019

Low ScenarioModerate ScenarioHigh Scenario

Expected Cargo Traffic 2014-15

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

11,795

13,229

4,266

13,706 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

24

Chennai being a developed region will continue to hold a lion’s share of the Cargo traffic supported by a high GDP growth in Tamil Nadu

Chennai holds more than 70% of total air cargo market in TN; Due to the high GDP growth rate and a well developed Air cargo facility, Chennai will dominate the air cargo market in the region in future

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100% CARGO Vs GDP Past trends in the Air Cargo market indicate a significant relationship of Air Cargo growth with GDP growthA high elasticity (1.194) of domestic air cargo growth v/s GDP growth means higher the GDP higher the cargo traffic growth rate

Cargo= (1.5226*GDP of Service Area2) - 0.0243

2011

-12

2013

-14

2015

-16

2017

-18

2019

-20

2021

-22

2023

-24

2025

-26

2027

-28

2029

-30

2031

-32

2033

-34

2035

-36

2037

-38

2039

-40

2041

-42

2043

-44

2045

-46

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

Expected GDP Share of Chennai

Expected GDP Share of Karaikal

Expected GDP Share of Karaikal v/s Chennai

25

Thank You!

26

Agenda






Back

27

Karaikal and Tamil

Nadu GDPAssumptions

Assumptions

The objective at this stage is to identify the relationship between regional income and its impact on Air Traffic growth in Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry and Karaikal regions

Air Traffic v/s GDP Correlation

Past trends of GDP and traffic growth correlation are expected to continue in futureIdentified correlation between air traffic share and GDP share in the region is expected to hold in future

KARAIKAL GDP ASSUMPTIONSPondicherry UT GDP growth elasticity to Indian national GDP growth rate has been assumed at 1.2 in order to have realistic GDP growth rate expectations for Karaikal, instead of 1.34 as determined from correlationGrowth elasticity expected to come down gradually to 1, at par with India GDP growthThe optimistic and pessimistic Karaikal GDP growth rates are expected to be 5% higher and lower respectively than realistic GDP growth rate

TAMIL NADU GDP ASSUMPTIONSTamil Nadu GDP growth elasticity is expected to come down gradually over 20 years from 2011 to reach India GDP growth by 2030-31 and thereafter stay at India GDP growth levels

Other Assumptions

No other Airport is expected to come in either Tamil Nadu or Pudducherry till 2045-46 in the region

Back

28

Approach

Collection of Macro Economic Data

Developing Demand Forecasting Model

Application of Data to Model to determine

total traffic

Macro economic data was

collected

This data formed the basis for

further analysis

The correlation model, modified as

a time series econometric model,

has been used for forecasting the

aviation demands in this study

Correlation between traffic and

GDP

Karaikal GDP Estimation

Estimating passenger/cargo

growth

Determining airport wise traffic

share

Year on yea GDP data for India,

Tamil Nadu, & metro regions of

Chennai, Coimbatore, Madurai &

Tiruchirapalli

Population data of these regions

GDP of the districts

Population of the districts

Passenger and Cargo Traffic

Year on yea GDP data for India,

Tamil Nadu, & metro regions of

Chennai, Coimbatore, Madurai &

Tiruchirapalli

Population data of these regions

GDP of the districts

Population of the districts

Passenger and Cargo Traffic

Elasticity of aviation demand in

Tamil Nadu region is estimated

Using forecasted TN GDP growth

rates, aviation growth rates of

the region is obtained for future

years.

Subsequently, future aviation

demands are obtained for the

region

Elasticity of aviation demand in

Tamil Nadu region is estimated

Using forecasted TN GDP growth

rates, aviation growth rates of

the region is obtained for future

years.

Subsequently, future aviation

demands are obtained for the

region

Regression analysis with GDP

data to determine the correlation

of traffic to GDP growth

Identify trends for the passenger

and cargo traffic

Airport wise traffic share

correlated with GDP share of the

representative region & traffic

shares determined

Regression analysis with GDP

data to determine the correlation

of traffic to GDP growth

Identify trends for the passenger

and cargo traffic

Airport wise traffic share

correlated with GDP share of the

representative region & traffic

shares determined

Using this approach, we determine how Karaikal Airport is expected to benefit from the growth and increasing income levels in the Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry region. We

determine the air traffic as Back

29

Expected Traffic in the first year of operations (2014-15)


500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

834 927 1,019

4,247 4,266 4,285

Cargo International Cargo Domestic

Cargo Traffic (tonnes)


50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

178 190 203

140 145 150

318 335 352

Passenger Domestic Passenger InternationalPassenger Total

Passenger Traffic (‘000)

MARKET SHARE OF KARAIKAL v/s TN AIRPORTS FOR 2014-15 (Moderate Scenario)

Passengers Cargo

Airport Domestic International

Domestic

International

Chennai 81.54% 83.18% 85.75% 99.10%

Madurai + Trichy + Coimbatore

17.35% 14.85% 11.47% 0.70%

Karaikal 1.11% 1.97% 2.78% 0.20%

A total passenger of 335,000 or 918 passengers per day means approximately 10-12 flights (assuming mostly ATR) in the first year of operation (2014-15). Projected traffic growth is

as followsBack

30

Airport expected to be operational by 2014-15, when footfall expected to be 335,000 (Base Case) and 352,000 (Optimistic)

While projecting traffic, we have assumed 3 scenarios – Pessimistic Scenario, Base Case Scenario and Optimistic ScenarioPessimistic Case Growth Rate = 0.95 x Base Case Growth Rate Base Case Growth Rate = India GDP Growth Rate x Karaikal GDP Growth Rate ElasticityOptimistic Case Growth Rate = 1.05 x Base Case Growth Rate

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

2014

-15

2015

-16

2016

-17

2017

-18

2018

-19

2019

-20

2020

-21

2021

-22

2022

-23

2023

-24

2024

-25

2025

-26

2026

-27

2027

-28

2028

-29

2029

-30

2030

-31

2031

-32

2032

-33

2033

-34

2034

-35

2035

-36

2036

-37

2037

-38

2038

-39

2039

-40

2040

-41

2041

-42

2042

-43

2043

-44

2044

-45

2045

-46

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

335

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

Dom

esti

c +

In

tern

ati

on

al

Passen

gers

(in

00

0s) 4,00

9

Back

31

Agenda






Back

32

Approach to annual traffic estimation in the catchment area & OD matrix preparation

List of 19 Railway junctions identified in and around Karaikal

Base road traffic estimationBase rail traffic estimation

Passenger data for 9 availableExtrapolate to 19 junctions in proportion to population

Data from sample surveys conducted at 6 railway stations were used to prepare the OD map for the region

Total annual traffic mapped out along all key routes

Total reservation traffic = 630,535

CVC studies conducted at 5 key nodes acting as the outlets of the catchment area of the airport

Sample projected for annual traffic including factors for high weekend traffic and seasonal peaks

Each region mapped to one airport as its primary, secondary or tertiary hinterland Share of air traffic at 100%, 50% and 33% if the region falls within the primary, secondary or tertiary hinterland respectively of Airport

Total Road passenger traffic = 3,908,014

The objective of the above exercise is to estimate the total passenger traffic in the region. Since there is no airport in the region (in and around Karaikal), passengers travel either by

road or rail. Back

33

Methodology

OD matrix is refined by clubbing origin & destination regions according to the nearest airport

Grid showing expected total traffic between 11 Airport regions

Traffic to and fro Karaikal filtered & 18 pairs to/from Karaikal identified

Probable travelers by air based on time and cost evaluation of Rail v/s Air Transport

OD matrix is refined by clubbing origin & destination regions according to the nearest airport

Grid showing expected total traffic between 11 Airport regions

Traffic to and fro Karaikal filtered & 16 pairs to/from Karaikal identified

Probable travelers by air based on time and cost evaluation of Rail v/s Air Transport

This approach gives us the total expected passengers expected to shift from rail and road to Air transport via Karaikal Airport to various origins. The expected traffic is explained as

Estimation of likely mode shifts from Road

Estimation of likely mode shifts from Rail

Total reservation traffic = 630,535 Total Road passenger traffic = 3,908,014

Back

34

Potential Passenger Traffic in the first year (2014-15)

ROAD CONTRIBUTION RAIL CONTRIBUTION

184,675 223,099407,774

EXPECTED MODAL SHIFT

Origin Rail Road

Chennai 2,566 46,386

Coimbatore 49,350 42,331

Trichy - 49,779

Madurai 6,249 23,257

Cochin 12,756 -

Trivandrum 37,570 6,475

Hyderabad 21,280 439

Bangalore 15,429 44,240

Mumbai 16,461 4,425

Delhi 23,014 5,768

Total 184,675 223,099

407,774 or 1,117 passengers/day with 12 aircraft operations per day

12.00%

22.48%

12.21%

7.24%3.13%

10.80%

5.33%

14.63%

5.12%

7.06%

ChennaiCoimbatoreTrichyMaduraiCochinTrivandrumHyderabadBangaloreMumbaiDelhi

ORIGIN WISE TRAFFIC CONTRIBUTION

Back

35

Airport expected to be operational by 2014-15; footfall potential expected to be 407,774 (Base Case) and 426,867 (Optimistic Case)


CAGR = 7.30%

CAGR = 7.70%

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

408 602

888 1,310

1,925

2,637

3,533

Base Traffic Growth

Base Traffic Growth(000s passengers)

- 500

1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500

427 662

1,006 1,498

2,201

3,015

4,041

Optimistic Traffic Growth

Optimistic Traffic Growth(000s passengers)

Back

36

Agenda






Back

37

Assumptions

NRI traffic assumptions

Projections were made based on traveler segments namely, NRI, Local Residents and Tourists. Analysis of conversion of tourists to airport was done tourist location wise

Local residents traffic assumptions

Tourist traffic assumptions

10 districts in and around Karaikal with population (2011) considered

Only 6 districts considered relevant for NRI population using Karaikal Airport

Survey results are representative of the whole population

Every visiting NRI would undertake two way journeyRealization factor at 75% of potential travelers

10 districts in and around Karaikal with population (2011) considered

Only 6 districts assumed relevant for local popn.

High income population 3% of total Survey results representative of the whole population

Probability of local population using Air travel follows similar pattern as tourists. Realization factor – 70%

Survey results are representative of the whole population

Relevant high income tourists assumed at 5% of total tourists

Traffic for Thirukadaiyur assumed to originate from Chennai mainly

Realization factor – 70% of potential travelers.

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Methodology

Local Population Survey including NRI

Tourist Survey Assumptions

Extrapolation of Survey Results to the whole populationAirport wise travel OD matrix preparation

O-D Matrix showing pair wise (Airport regions) passengers both local and foreign travelers using all modes of transport

O-D Matrix adjusted for probability of passengers shifting to Air travelProbability of shifting = _____________Utility derived from air travel_____________

Sum of current utility and derived utility for air travel Determination of potential passengers traveling by Air

Potential passengers adjusted for realization factor (category wise)

Projected Passengers for 1st year of operations

This approach gives us category wise and origin wise total expected passengers expected to travel to/from Karaikal Airport. The expected traffic is represented as

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Projected Passenger TrafficIn the first year of operations the potential traffic is 416,012 in the base case and 438,298 in the optimistic case


- 500

1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000

416 614 906

1,336

1,963

2,689

3,603

Base Traffic

Base Traffic (000s passengers)

- 500

1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500

438 678

1,027 1,527

2,244

3,075

4,120

Optimistic Traffic

Optimistic Traffic (000s passengers)

CAGR = 7.33% CAGR = 7.74%

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Expected Current Passenger Traffic in 2014-15 (1/2)

416,012

Domestic Passenger Distribution (‘000)

The expected passenger traffic for first year of operation is of 416,012 or 1140 passengers/day. Projected traffic growth is as follows

Traffic share highly skewed in favour of Tamil Nadu destinations hence majority traffic within Tamil Nadu itself

Direct traffic to other destinations limited in initial stages due to less traffic to those destinations

Domestic vs. International (‘000)

Passenger Category Distribution (‘000)

51.7367596639052; 12%

73.6299127736392;

18%

88.236714412627;

21%

17.1251963794172; 4%

171.929403961808;

41%

13.3542594338542; 3%

NRI

Local Travelers

Velankanni

Nagore

Thirunallar

Thirukadaiyur

356.31; 86%

59.702; 14%

Domestic Passengers

International Passengers

247.912; 70%

100.418; 28%

7.981; 2%

Within Tamil Nadu

Other Southern Regions

Rest of India

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O-D wise Potential Traffic

2011-12 2014-15Traffic Origin

NRI Traffic

Local Population Traffic

Tourist Traffic

NRI Traffic

Local Population Traffic

Tourist Traffic

Chennai - 7,759 48,794 - 9,817 61,733Coimbatore - 4,489 67.497 - 5,679 85,395

Trichy - 27,272 9,444 - 34,504 11,948Madurai - 10,254 17,558 - 12,973 22,214Cochin - 636 18,897 - 805 23,908

Trivandrum - 1,222 7,890 - 1,547 9,983Hyderabad - 160 14,426 - 202 18,251Bangalore - 2,485 33,655 - 3,144 42,579Mumbai - 75 2,799 - 95 3,541

Delhi - 288 - - 364 -

Calcutta - - 2,813 - - 3,559Goa - 32 301 - 41 381

Pondicherry - 2885 - - 3,650

Colombo - - 585 - - 740Dubai 6,816 - 260 8,623 - 329France - 910 - - 1,151

Germany - 1,820 - - 2,302Holland - 65 - - 82Malaysia 13,631 - 2,015 17,246 - 2,549

Kabul 321 - - 406Singapore 13,631 321 - 17,246 406

Kuwait 6,816 - - 8,623 -

Total 40,893 58,198 229,729 51,737 73,630 290,646

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Documents

1 September 2011 Airport Traffic Estimation Presentation for Karaikal Airports Private Limited Airport Traffic Estimation Presentation for Karaikal Airports