1 S ystems Analysis Laboratory Helsinki University of Technology Effects-Based Operations as a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Problem Jouni Pousi, Kai

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S ystemsAnalysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology

Effects-Based Operations as a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Problem

Jouni Pousi, Kai Virtanen, and Raimo P. Hämäläinen

Systems Analysis LaboratoryHelsinki University of Technology

[email protected], [email protected], [email protected]

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Effects-based operations (EBO) (e.g., Davis, P.K., “Effects-Based Operations: A Grand Challenge for the Analytical Community,” RAND, 2001)– Concept for planning and executing military operations– Systems perspective

- e.g., country, electrical grid, transportation network– Effects: Consequences of actions in a system

- Effects: e.g., change opinion of the populace, isolate a country, disable the electrical grid

- Actions: e.g., launch a missile, jam communications, apply economic sanctions

Introduction

Transparent and tractable way to plan EBO

EBO planning process allowing the application of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA)

Utilization of multi-criteria influence diagrams in the process

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Effects-based operations (EBO)

The term ”EBO” originated during the Gulf War in 1991 Historically military planning focused on actions EBO shifts the focus to effects in a system Military operations aimed for effects prior to EBO

– Inconsistent approaches– Lack of analytical methods– Not called EBO

Practical experiences with EBO led to extensive debate on aspects

Multi-criteria approach not focused on in unclassified literature

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Aspects of EBO Cause effects in a

system– Through actions– Such that higher level

objectives fulfilled Systems in EBO

– Uncertain– Dynamic– High level of

interdependency Multiple effects caused

by even a single actionMCDA is a necessity

when planning EBO!

Effects(e.g., isolatea country)

System(e.g.,

transportationnetwork)

Higher-levelobjectives(e.g., stabilize

a region)

Actions(e.g., bomb railways,jam communications)

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EBO planning process

EffectsActions System

Decision maker (DM)Bestaction

? ?? ?

Goal of the process: Support the decision maker (DM) to find the best action causing the desired effects in the system

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EBO planning process: Step 1/9

Higher-level objectives

Effects

Undesired

InsignificantDesired

Unidentified

Step 1: Identify effects from higher-level objectives

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Higher-level objectives

Step 1: Identify effects from higher-level objectives

Ensure cooperation ofcountry D on issue X

Change popular opinionof country D about

government of country D

Undesired

InsignificantDesired

Unidentified

Effects

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Step 2: Define the system consisting of subsystems and elements

Subsystem

Element

EffectsSystem

Subsystem

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Step 2: Define the system consisting of subsystems and elements

Subsystem

Element

EffectsSystem

Power plant

Power grid

Country D

Subsystem

Civilianpopulation

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EffectsSystem

Subsystemrelated to

effect

Step 3: Identify subsystems related to each desired and undesired effect

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Step 3: Identify subsystems related to each desired and undesired effect

EffectsSystem

Subsystemrelated to

effect

Civilianpopulation

Change popular opinionof country D about

government of country D

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Step 4: Identify feasible actions having an impact on subsystems related to each effect

EffectsSystemActions

Feasibleactions

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Feasibleactions

Bomb electricalpower plants

Powerplant

Step 4: Identify feasible actions having an impact on subsystems related to each effect

Civilianpopulation

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Othereffects

Step 5: Identify other effects caused by the feasible actions

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Othereffects

Undesired effect:InfrastructuredegradationStep 5: Identify other effects caused by the

feasible actions

Bomb electricalpower plants

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Step 6: Choose indicators for all the effects


Indicator

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Step 6: Choose indicators for all the effects


Indicator

PowerplantUndesired effect:

Infrastructuredegradation

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Step 7: Construct criteria for effects from the indicators


CriteriaCriterion

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Step 7: Construct criteria for effects from the indicators


CriteriaCriterion

Reconstruction costs

Undesired effect:Infrastructuredegradation

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Criteria

Step 8: Find efficient actions based on the criteria

Feasibleactions

Efficientactions

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CriteriaStep 9: Select the best action based on DM’s preference information

DM’s preference

information

Bestaction

Multi-criteriaevaluation of

efficient actions

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Summary of EBO planning process

EffectsActions System•Subsystems•Elements•Indicators

Criteria

II. Feasible actionsidentified based on

their impact onthe system

I. Effects connectedwith the system

III. Criteria for effectsconstructed

from indicators

IV. Best action selectedbased on DM’s preference information

Bestaction


efficient actions

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EBO planning process:Interpretation as a multi-criteria decision problem

Structure the decision problem

Assess impact of alternatives

Determine DM’s preferences

Evaluate and compare decision alternatives

Decision analysisEBO planning

Define system and effects

Identify feasible actions and other effects

Choose indicators, construct criteria

Find efficient actions and the best action

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EBO planning process:Interpretation as a multi-criteria decision problem

Structure the decision problem

Assess impact of alternatives

Determine DM’s preferences

Evaluate and compare decision alternatives

Decision analysisEBO planning

Define system and effects

Identify feasible actions and other effects

Choose indicators, construct criteria

Find efficient actions and the best action

MCDA methodscan be appliedfor supportingEBO planning!

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Requirements for methods applied in EBO planning process

System modeling– Interdependencies– Uncertainty – Dynamics

Multi-criteria evaluation of a discrete set of actions– MCDA– Sensitivity analysis

Multi-criteria influence diagrams (MCIDs) - a potential method!

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EBOLATOR Decision support tool for EBO planning

– GeNIe for MCID– Matlab-based GUI

Use of GeNIe– Construction of MCID graphically– Definition of MCID parameters– Calculation of criteria probability

distributions GUI

– Visualization of actions– Evaluation of actions

• Decision rule for criteria (e.g., expected value)

• Direct weighting• Constraints

– Sensitivity analysis with respect to • Weights• Constraints• MCID parameters

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Example missionDefensive mission:Determining aircraft positioning and air combat tactics against air-to-ground attackHigher level objective: Defend the sovereignity of the country

Attack towards civil and military infrastructure– Power plants, electrical substations, water supply, radar sites, anti-air sites

Attacker assumed to conduct two air-to-ground operations

Uncertainties on mission planning– Enemy actions– Weather– System behaviour

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Results of EBO planning process

Effects- Maintain functioning of

civil infrastructure- Maintain functioning of

air defense

Actions- Aircraft positions- Air combat tactics

(729 actions)

SystemInfrastructure

(46 MCID nodes,4404 parameters)

Criteria- Air combat losses

- Functioning of air surveillance- Functioning of power grid

- etc.(10 criteria)


actions

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EBO planning process: Multi-criteria evaluation of actions

The best action according to the authors’ preferences– Protect power plants– Less aggressive air

combat tactics during the second attack operation

Sensitivity analyses for best action– Robust with regards

the weigths and constraints of the criteria

– Can be executed in all weather conditions

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Conclusions Multi-criteria perspective essential in EBO planning

– Previous elaborations could be improved by inclusion of MCDA New EBO planning process utilizing multi-criteria decision

analysis EBOLATOR using influence diagram methodology

– Answers challenges of system modeling– Enables multi-criteria evaluation

- Sensitivity analyses– Large system => Issues on model size and determination of

parameters Future research

– Alternative MCDA methods– Enemy behaviour – game theory– Improved dynamics– Other application areas – medical, marketing

Documents

1 S ystems Analysis Laboratory Helsinki University of Technology Effects-Based Operations as a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Problem Jouni Pousi, Kai