1 Pakistan and Regional Issues. 2 Sequence Pak-Afghan Relations Kashmir Issue China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) Conclusions

1

Pakistan and Regional Issues

2

Sequence

Pak-Afghan Relations

Kashmir Issue

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)

Conclusions

3

Pak-Afghan Relations

4

Historical Dimensions

Pak-Afghan relations date back to August 1947 when

Pakistan became an independent state

Pakistan and Afghanistan have deep rooted relations

due to historical, religious, cultural and ethno-

linguistic connections between the people of the two

countries

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Issues related to Soviet invasion of Afghanistan,

Afghan refugee, Taliban insurgency, border crossings

and Illegal trade especially of weapons and narcotics

have remained areas of concern for both the

countries

Growing Indian influence other than economic

cooperation in Afghanistan, unstable internal security

situation in post NATO withdrawal environment and

challenges to the writ of Afghan government in the

country have negative impact on Pak-Afghan

relations

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The border between Pakistan and Afghanistan (Durand

Line) was established after the 1893 Durand Line

Agreement between Mortimer Durand (Foreign

Secretary to the government of British India) and Amir

Abdur Rahman Khan (Amir of Afghanistan) for fixing the

limit of their respective spheres of influence. The issue

is settled on recognition of Pak-Afghan international

border. However, surfaces sometimes for political

reasons During the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, Pakistan

played an important role alongside the US and extended

facilities to build up Afghan resistance forces for

defeating communist occupation. Consequently Pakistan

continues to host more than 3 million Afghan refugees

on its soil with immense implications


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After Soviet withdrawal, US and international

community lost its interest and left the region without

consolidating governance which resulted in a chaotic

environment Consequently civil war broke out among various

mujahedeen factions which led to Taliban taking over

the capital, Kabul, in 1996. In May 1997, Pakistan became the first country to

accord diplomatic recognition to the Taliban govt

followed by Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates


8

During the period Pakistan supported Afghan govt

with the sole objective of fostering stability in the

country The incident of 9/11 brought the US back to the

region against the Taliban regime in Afghanistan

that was hosting Al-Qaeda leadership. Pakistan once

again became an ally of the US due to its

geographical proximity Post 9/11 period Pak-Afghan relations have not been

very cordial due to instability caused by a variety of

reasons


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Pakistan’s Interest : A Stable, peaceful and

developing Afghanistan

Afghan policy :Non interference

Facilitate : Intra-Afghan dialogue

: Foster friendly relations

Concerns : Afghan territory should not be used

to destabilize Pakistan

Pakistan’s Afghanistan Policy & Imperatives

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Viability of a regional framework: A regional

framework which seeks neutrality and non-interference

from countries in the neighborhood is the way forward

Intra-Afghan Dialogue: The Taliban’s negotiating

behavior and their desired role in post-transition

Afghanistan remains a question mark. Prediction is that

reconciliation talks will be a long-drawn out process

Success of Unity Govt: The unity govt in Afghanistan is

an encouraging development however, it needs support

from regional as well as extra regional stake holders for the

benefit of the people of Afghanistan as well as the region

Key Challenges & Way Forward

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Internal Security Imperatives-Role & Success of

ANSF:

The future of ANSF is uncertain. Many in Kabul

believe that the forces will not be ready to become

the principal custodians of Afghan security by 2016

due to a variety of reasons

The size of the Afghan National Army is

unsustainable and high rate of desertions is a source

of concern

Recent take over of Kunduz by Taliban is a test for

ANSF to show their professional capability

Key Challenges

12

Economic Dimension: The international

community will have to provide required

monetary support for Afghanistan in years to

come to sustain Afghan economy and ANSF

Key Challenges

13

Afghan Refugees. Pakistan has been hosting more

than three million Afghan refugees since the 1980.

Currently, the number of refugees in Pakistan is around

2.7 million, of whom 1.7 million are registered. Pakistan

considers this as a significant contribution towards

sharing the burden of Afghanistan and continues to do

so despite the fact that refugee camps have served as

bases for militant recruitments and criminal activities

Key Challenges – Other Aspects

14

Indian Factor. In the post 9/11 scenario, India

capitalized upon new realities and found favorable

opportunities to establish and develop relations with

Afghanistan at the expense of Pakistan-Afghan

relations. It has pursued proactive diplomacy and has

succeeded in creating pro Indian lobbies in

Afghanistan. They have established numerous

diplomatic missions in the major and strategically

important cities of Afghanistan, which have been

pursuing policy for destabilising Pakistan


15

Border Management. In order to control the spillover

effects and cross-border militancy, Pakistan took the

initiative in installing check posts manned with regular

forces and also proposed border fencing and other

control measure which could not fully materialize. Steps

are required to be taken to regulate the border

management

Joint intelligence Mechanism. Development of an

institutionalized joint mechanism for intelligence sharing

and cooperation to eliminate illegal activities and defeat

militancy and terrorism along the border


16

Kashmir Issue

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Kashmir dispute continue to serve as a critical barrier in normalization of relations between Pakistan and India and to the detriment of greater economic growth and prosperity

Kashmir is indeed a matter of the people’s right to make a choice about their own destiny; and not a territorial dispute between India and Pakistan. International community is party to the pledge. A sustainable solution must, therefore, rest upon acknowledgement of the native people’s primacy and their participation in the peace process

Historical PerspectiveIssues in Brief

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Kashmir holds key to securing peace and harmony in South Asia and beyond. The unresolved dispute runs in tandem with a nuclearized environment. The one-fifth of humanity living in this region, has long awaited a conflict-free setting that would move the wheel of economic growth and bring prosperity

Historical PerspectiveIssues in Brief

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Kashmir dispute remains an unfinished agenda of the

United Nations. In successive resolutions, the

international community had promised the Kashmiri

people their right to decide their future. The

Resolutions have remained unimplemented to date

Kashmiris were promised right of self-determination in

a number of Resolutions of the UN Commission for

India and Pakistan, dated 9th November 1948, 5th

January 1950, 23rd December 1952 and 24th January

1957

Historical PerspectiveUN Resolution: Statements

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In the resolutions adopted in the 1940s, both India

and Pakistan agreed to remove foreign forces from the

State and vowed to allow a plebiscite by which the

Kashmiri people would exercise a free choice to join

either India or Pakistan. However, by the late 1950s

India decided to unilaterally act and annex the State,

declaring it a part of the Indian Union. They refused to

abide by the promises of a plebiscite

Historical PerspectiveUN Resolution: Statements

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In contravention to UN Resolutions the current Indian

position describes the State of Jammu and Kashmir

an integral part of the Indian Union. In their

pronouncements, the dispute if any, relates to the

part of the state held under Pakistani control

Historical PerspectiveIndian Position

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The India Pakistan escalation viz-a-viz Kashmir in 1948 had led upto a UN supervised ceasefire line, which was later on replaced by the LoC as a result of the 1971 war between the two countries. UN Peacekeeping mission titled UNMOGIP was deployed. However India has pushed the policy to deny unhindered access to the mission in pursuit of their duties

Pakistan and India went to war in 1965 and six years later in 1971, each war resulted in a truce and an interim agreement. The first agreement was in Tashkant after the 1965 war and the second in Shimla after 1971, after which LoC was demarcated on ground

Historical PerspectiveImpact of Indo-Pak Wars

1965 & 71

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The LoC was demarcated in part in Laddakh Region in

1984, India exploited the gap in demarcation and

occupied Siachin Glacier, which has persisted since

then as the highest battle field

Historical PerspectiveImpact of Indo-Pak Wars

1965 & 71

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Pakistan under Gen Musharraf made a special

endeavour to break the stalemate, it announced

ceasefire in 2003 and negotiated with the India for

‘an out of box solution’

Gen Musharraf had then offered a four point plan

which laid emphasis on soft borders, self rule,

demilitarization and joint mechanisim. However, the

hardcore of the ruling elite in Delhi, even thwarted

the process

Historical PerspectiveGen Musharraf’s

Formula

25

The current Indian policy remains focused on

integrating all aspects of life and activity in Jammu

and Kashmir with the larger Indian Union

In the process, they desire to undo the special status

of the State in terms of political autonomy as

enshrined in Article 370 of the Indian Constitution

The Indian political elite, in the current phase aims at

trifurcation of the State with a view to dissolving its

legal identity and therefore, eroding its character as

much as it relates to the international disputes

Current Indian PolicyStatus Quo

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The Indian State machinery has made unannounced

moves to transplant population from India to sectors

of the State. This is most pronounced in the Jammu

region of the State

The State laws on permanent residence in Jammu and

Kashmir enacted in 1940s and still protected, do not

allow a non-J&K citizen to acquire property in the

State. The current Indian policy also aims at removing

this legal provision and to open the flood gate for

Indians to settle in the State

Current Indian PolicyDemographic Change

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India has tried to benefit from the international

community’s post 9/11 concerns viz-a-viz terrorism

and thus directed its efforts to brand the National

Liberation Movement as a terrorist manifestation

In response, the Kashmiri political elite have opted for

‘political resistance’ against Indian designs. However,

the Indians have failed to open up a meaningful

dialogue with the Kashmiri people and their policy of

repression and over-militarization of the area

continues to persist

Current Indian PolicyEquating Kashmir freedom Movement with Terrorism

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The Indians have been pursuing, a policy of coercion

along the LoC. The ceasefire that was agreed in 2003

has been violated repeatedly. This makes the life of

Kashmiris along the LoC difficult. Besides loss of life

and damage to property, the situation can lead to

escalation

Current Indian PolicyPolicy of Coercion along LoC

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The UN resolutions provide a sure basis for a

sustainable settlement of the dispute. This way

forward is critically important in view of a recognition

that the dispute relates to human destiny and not a

territory

Pakistan’s Policy and Way Forward

UN Resolutions

30

Pakistan has in the past two decades tried to carry forward the process of dialogue with India through a composite dialogue process

The process that was initiated in 1997 but has not delivered because of the Indian refusal to address the core issues and ensure meaningful progress in all areas of dialogue

In the current scenario, the Indian leadership is not even ready to restart the composite dialogue and instead emphasizes on a unilateral agenda, so the stalemate continues


Composite Dialogue

31

Pakistan has made persistent efforts to end the statements

in relation with India and to engage them in a meaningful

dialogue. The basic premise is to bring one fifth of the

human kind out of the imbroglio and let them move

towards a pathway of stability and economic growth

In the continuing efforts, PM Nawaz Sharif has now

proposed a four point formula to facilitate resumption of

the dialogue process and to inject confidence that may be

required for a headway. In this context, he spoke at the

UNGA to call on the either side to agree to adherence to

the 2003 ceasefire along the LoC in Jammu and Kashmir,

demilitarization of Siachin Glacier (the highest battlefield in

the world), and steps towards troops withdrawal from

Kashmir


32

Unfortunately, India continues with the policy of status

quo, displaying little desire to solve the humanitarian

issue

Ironically a violator of UN Resolutions, it also aspires

to become a member of UNSC


33

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)

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Pakistan and China maintain friendly relations since

their independence in 1947 and 1948 Pakistan was the country which introduced China to

the world and played a key role in facilitating its

relations specially with the west Throughout their history the economic and military

cooperation between the two countries has continued In the domain of infrastructure development,

Karakoram highway is an example to quote In the defence sector, many joint projects have been

undertaken to include; JF-17 Fighter Aircraft, Al-Khalid

Tank joint production, F-22P Frigate

designing and construction etc

Pakistan-China CooperationHistorical Perspective

35

In the economic sector a number of power projects

are being established to address the power shortage

in Pakistan as well as produce sufficient power for the

projects related to China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

initiative Pakistan and China also have cooperated in

development of peaceful nuclear technology which

has manifested in establishment of nuclear power

plants in Pakistan

Pakistan-China CooperationHistorical Perspective

36

In China-Pakistan Economic Corridor initiative, there

are three main dimensions in which development will

take place: Development of infrastructure to include

highways, railways, oil and gas pipelines, laying of

fiber optics networks etc Positive impact on security situations of both

Pakistan and China in that tremendous

development prospects will facilitate

socio-economic uplift of the people of both

the countries Opportunity to enhance people to people contacts,

contributing significantly through cultural

exchanges

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

and its Significance

37

Infrastructure development: Substantial

development needs to be undertaken in installing

power plants for fulfilling the requirement of the

industrial development that will take place as part of

the economic corridor initiative Security dimension – Role of Armed Forces: All

available resources are being utilized by Pakistan

Army which is engaged in combating terrorism in the

tribal areas as well as major cities in the country. The

operation in FATA are in culmination stage which will

lead to political consolidation. The internal security

situation in the country has improved which will be

even better with the installation of local governments

Challenges and Opportunities

38

Governance & Transparency Aspects: For the

economic activity initiatives are being undertaken to

improve governance and transparency at all levels of

business and administration


39

Pakistan’s Role as a Connecting Country:

Pakistan has and will always strive for bringing peace

and stability in the region by focusing on the socio-

economic development aspects. Human security

aspects are under great focus in government planning

processes. A number of initiatives to enhance trade

with the neighbouring countries have been taken of

which Iran-Pakistan (IP) and Turkmenistan,

Afghanistan, Pakistan and India (TAPI) gas pipeline

projects are the examples While taking care of the regional as well as internal

security aspects, Pakistan will continue to play a

positive role in providing connectivity to Central,

South and Western Asian Regions


40

After about a decade and half war like situation in

Afghanistan, Pak-Afghan relations have started to

improve and need to be further strengthened Pakistan has always extended consistent support for

peace and reconciliation in Afghanistan. It remains

committed to work with Afghanistan as well as the

international community for sustainable peace,

stability and development in Afghanistan Pakistan desires a genuine intra-Afghan dispensation

in Kabul that is not hostile and is sensitive to Pakistani

interests

Important Conclusions

41

Prosperity of Afghanistan is linked with Pakistan. CPEC

would not only benefit Pakistan but Afghanistan as

well Reciprocal steps are also expected from Afghan side

for border control and denying third party

intervention There is a need to strengthen Afghan Govt with all its

institutions and especially the security forces to bring

stability and peace within Afghanistan as a long term

measure South Asia presently faces the Kashmir issue which

has become an impediment to peace and stability

and needs resolution in accordance with the UN

resolutions


42

Kashmir represents a case of international neglect of

the widespread human rights violations and over

militarization of the habitat. The UN and related

forums must play a pro-active role to stop these

violations

The CPEC economic corridor initiative will help

transport the resources like minerals, oil and gas in

addition to the finished products, thus contributing to

better economic activities and outcomes for entire

South Asian region


43

Pakistan military launched operation Zarbe-Azb in July

2014 which has significantly weakened the command

& control of terrorists and there are positive

indicators that security situation will improve in days

to come leading to formation of a suitable

environment for economic development


44

Interactive Session

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Pak-Turkey Relations

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Strong bi-lateral, friendly relations

People to people contact and brotherly relations

Space and scope for greater economic cooperation

and collaboration

Historical Perspective

47

Instability in Syria and Impact on Turkey

Refugee crisis

Rise of ISIS

Probabilities of competition between Iran & Saudi

Arabia

Instability in Yemen

Kashmir Issue

Instability in Afghanistan

Contemporary Concerns

48

Dialogue between BILGESAM & NDU

Joint Research for suggesting way forward

Joint Research for consolidating Pakistan – Turkey

Relations

Way Forward

49

Thanks

Documents

1 Pakistan and Regional Issues. 2 Sequence Pak-Afghan Relations Kashmir Issue China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) Conclusions