The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC): The Political Economy

Analyzed

By Dr. Sohail Mahmood

The CPEC was initiated in 2015 and was essentially a vast network of roads, rail

links, power plants and other infrastructure connecting western China's Xinjiang

province to Pakistan's southern port of Gwadar. The CPEC was now considered as

a flagship project and the single greatest achievement of the OBOR vision. The

initial investment was $46 billion in CPEC which was then the biggest ever-

foreign direct investment in Pakistan. Later the investment was increased to $54

billion after the inclusion of more projects in CPEC such as investments in

Pakistan Railways and financing of the Karachi Circular Railways project.

Infrastructure and power projects are expected to be completed by 2030. 1 The

total investment today has been increased to $62 billion.2 The CPEC will provide

connectivity with Pakistan and the region beyond through a network of highways,

railways and other connection networks like fiber optics. The road and railway

links are being connected from Kashgar, China, to Khunjrab, Pakistan and will

pass through Gilgit-Baltistan. An eastern route would pass through Punjab and

Sindh and then would reach to Gwadar, its ultimate destination. Similarly, Western

route would pass through Southern KPK and Balochistan. Some of the highways

have been constructed and transportation has also started in these areas. Some

roads are being built to connect with the main routes and some are being repaired.

Work on railways connecting passage from Gwadar to Kashgar is also underway.

Roads and industrial zones are now being built in less developed areas of Pakistan.

The Gwadar port was now functional. It was planned that ultimately CPEC would

integrate the region as which may include India, Afghanistan and Iran. 3 Gwadar

and Karachi on the Arabian Sea are destined to become the regional hubs for

commerce, finance and energy transactions. Iran-Pakistan-China gas pipeline could

soon become a viable option as would a Gwadar-Chabahar corridor. Chabahar port

is in the Sistan-Balochistan province on Iran's southeastern coast and is of great

strategic utility and will give India sea-land access route to Afghanistan bypassing

Pakistan.

The economic landscape of Pakistan was being rapidly transformed. CPEC is a

huge vote of confidence in Pakistan’s economy. The required institutional

structures and frameworks are already in place. These include inter-alia, the

Pakistan-China Free Trade Agreement, the Joint Investment Company and

currency swap arrangements. The Economic Cooperation Organization Summit,

held in Islamabad in March 2017, welcomed CPEC. Participation of Afghanistan

and Iran in CPEC processes and projects would be good for the region. Such

cooperation could also be extended to the Gulf, Central Asia and Africa. The

economic landscape of Pakistan was being rapidly transformed. CPEC was a huge

vote of confidence in Pakistan’s economy. The required institutional structures and

frameworks are already in place. These include inter-alia, the Pakistan-China Free

Trade Agreement, the Joint Investment Company and currency swap arrangements.

The CPEC is an excellent example of mutual benefits that would accrue from the

OBOR. CPEC is also a starting point for building ever expanding circles of win-

win cooperation schemes, stability and peace extending from Pakistan and China

to Eurasia and Africa.

A major chunk of the multibillion-dollar investment, $34 billion, is going into

electricity production and distribution. The project would help Pakistan to have

11,000 MW to overcome its energy shortfall. Currently, the CPEC’s early harvest

projects costing about $16 billion are either completed or are in a near completion

stage. Eleven of these projects are in the energy sector. Over 30% of all CPEC

projects are in Balochistan, Pakistan. Very recently, China has approved

additional financing for infrastructure projects in Pakistan under the CPEC,

taking the investment volume to $62 billion from $55 billion about three months

ago. According to the ruling Nawaz Government, other countries are keen to

become part of CPEC projects.4 The CPEC is particularly important for China.

With access to Pakistani ports, China will be able to expand its market reach and

bring in foreign direct investment to ease the devaluation of the renminbi. The

renminbi’s drop signals China’s hope to increase the amount of low wage jobs

abroad and play it safe on future risks while implementing financial reform.

Though China has become the world’s largest banking system, debt has played a

pivotal role in its growth in recent years . . . Massive investment in infrastructure

will result in greater power of China to influence regional affairs. The CPEC has

become a symbol of Pakistan and China’s deep ties of friendship between the two

nations. Also, CPEC represents China’s attempts to gain influence and access to

the Indian Ocean while providing Chinese industries a stimulus. Pakistan has

proven a willing partner due to its political interests in the region and need for

investment. Pakistan’s Gwadar port was going to become a trade hub for CPEC on

the Indian Ocean rim. China increased investments into CPEC to $57 billion

capped off by Gwadar. 5 To ensure the security of Chinese establishments and

workers in the CPEC projects, the Pakistan Army plans to raise a special security

force of 20,000.

Today, there was a lot of hype about CPEC being a “game changer” in the region.

On April 6, 2017, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif said that the multibillion CPEC

and its related projects symbolized the people centric approach of the two countries

and their resolve for regional connectivity. He lauded the Chinese diplomatic and

materialistic support to Pakistan in its fight against terrorism. The Prime Minister

said the upcoming “Belt and Road Forum” being held in China next month would

provide an excellent opportunity for exploring key areas of connectivity,

infrastructure, trade, finance, people-to-people exchanges and think-tanks

cooperation between Pakistan, China and the entire world community.6 The Prime

Minister said the CPEC will transform the economic dimension of the two

countries' bilateral relationship.

Very recently, the United Kingdom expressed its willingness to join the CPEC.

According to the Minister for Planning, Development and Reforms Ahsan Iqbal,

several other countries in the European Union and Central Asian Republics were

also evincing keen interest in the project. He said that their inclination towards

the project “proves that CPEC was not restricted only to Pakistan and China, but

has a greater regional impact that will promote connectivity in the region and

beyond. Besides improving the image of Pakistan across the world, the Pak-China

project will make the country a manufacturing and commerce hub”.7 Belarus had

also expressed its keenness to join CPEC. President Mamnoon Hussain welcomed

on Tuesday Belarus’ desire to join CPEC project, saying it would expedite the

pace of development in the region.8

There was some muted criticism of the CPEC as it suffered from lack of

transparency. The official website contains just a list of projects but no sufficient

details about them. This paucity of information about CPEC was bewildering, to

say the least. Last year, Shoaib Suddle, a former high-ranking bureaucrat had noted

that the steps taken toward the settlement of route controversy were positive but

more needed to be done so that convergence of views in Pakistan could become

possible in the fulfilment of common objectives and goals. Ashfaque Hassan Khan,

renowned economist, highlighted the need for greater financial transparency and

remarked that financial spread related to CPEC projects needed to be made

publicly available so that CPEC-related changes in the total debt of Pakistan could

be properly studied and correct policy recommendations could be derived to ease

the debt burden.

Pakistan was faced with several multifaceted internal challenges: terrorism,

extremism, domestic violence, poor counterterrorism policy, political paralysis

resulting from the ongoing Panama Supreme Court case, sluggish economy, bad

governance, civil-military power tussles, CPEC dependency, and lingering

insurgency in Balochistan, a fractured state and society, weakened institutions, and

visionless political leadership. Unprecedented corruption in Pakistan's government

institutions had led to corrosion of state institutions. Bad governance was the norm,

not the exception in the country. Politics in Pakistan was now a criminalized

phenomenon and money matters the most. Pakistan had been weakened from

within. It is facing an existential challenge from all sorts of extremist ideologies

ranging from rightist Islamic radicalism to leftist ethnic identities assertions.

Meanwhile, the global war on terror continues to haunt the country. Thus, there are

several significant potential threats to the CPEC. Very recently, Weinbaum, a

much-respected regional scholar, had stated that: 9

This past year was another of muddling through for Pakistan. 2017 promises much

the same. Continuity is suggested as Pakistan again avoids fully confronting its

most challenging problems yet manages to do enough to avoid their becoming

seriously worse. Measures to curb domestic violence undertaken by Pakistan’s

military and civilian government can be expected to fall short of making the hard

choices needed to eliminate ensconced extremist groups. Nor will meaningful

policies address corruption or advance human rights protections. Little will also be

done in 2017 that moves Pakistan toward reforming structural weaknesses in its

sluggish economy. Any pressures to act have been replaced by the belief among

most Pakistanis that China’s promised infusion of more than $50 billion to uplift

the country’s infrastructure will relieve the country of most economic ills. Despite

continuing attempts by political opposition to weaken and delegitimize the Sharif

government, it will probably continue to outmaneuver its political enemies while

also giving Pakistan’s military no reason to intervene.

Pakistan was faced with a lingering insurgency in Balochistan. India supported the

insurgency and this issue was a very real threat to Pakistan. It was also the primary

bone of contention between Pakistan and India. Indian interference in Pakistan’s

affairs was well-documented but due to poor image of the country not believed in

the international circles.

Talat Masood, a retired lieutenant general of the Pakistan Army and a former

federal secretary, in his article aptly titled “Pakistan’s multiple woes”, published on

March 21, 2017 argued that while Pakistan was being unfairly treated by the US

there was also a need for a foremost reappraisal of Pakistan’s domestic and

foreign policies. He maintained that Pakistanis should examine the deeper

problem of bolstering the deficient, undemocratic decision-making structures.

Due to the disinterest towards institutionalized decision-making by Pakistan’s

rulers it was hardly surprising that policy and decision-making of national

importance remained essentially personalized and incoherent. It was this very

flaw that prevented the Government of Pakistan from conducting a true national

strategy. Until and unless there was an institutional decision-making process

Pakistan would continue to have lack of intellectual content the country would

will always be faced with the crisis. Pakistan faced much larger challenges

because of this poor policymaking. The county’s all too willing participation in

the Afghan jihad and impromptu acceptance of playing a pivotal role after 9/11,

without weighing its full consequences, were some examples of this faulty

decision-making. The Kargil adventure nearly pushed nuclear Pakistan into a war

with nuclear India although. One can give many examples where Pakistan had

failed in proper policy formulation and had rationalized these mistakes by

scapegoating the civilian leadership or military for them. It was very unfortunate

that even Pakistan’s civilian leaders rarely follow democratic norms of decision-

making. This provided further leverage to the military to influence decision-

making. Such failings could be largely offset if the government resorted to

involving both cabinet and the parliament in the enunciation and oversight

Pakistan’s significant national policies, as was the norm in the system of

democracy. The primary driver of Pakistan’s international interest was security

which has given significant leverage to the military. This state of affairs got a

great increase during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and had continued to

date. Pakistanis are repeatedly reminded that United States looks at Islamabad

through Indian or Afghan lens. The erroneous view of Pakistan, in which security

remained the main national interest for the United States and other powers, had

increased its political problems. In the past foreign powers had exploited this

fault and had even bypassed the civilian leadership and had directly

communicating with the Army. Despite the enormous sacrifices that the Army

had made in its fight against terror and securing Pakistan’s borders, it was still

criticized by India, the United States, and Afghanistan and other countries. These

powers focused on the Army’s perceived tolerance and relationship with the

Jaish-e-Mohammad, Haqqani network, and Quetta Shura. Their focus had given

India an excuse to employ territory in Afghanistan for deploying TTP and other

dissident elements against Pakistan. In clear contrast, there wasn’t any

disapproval by United States about India’s its brutal repression of the Kashmiri

resistance movement and its policies towards Pakistan. On the contrary, there

were powerful voices in the United States that were coming up with legislation

punishing Pakistan. The reason for this biased approach was obvious. The United

Sates considered India as a strategic partner and the TTP and groups based

operating from Afghanistan weren’t a target. Pakistan can only come out of this

vicious cycle through a major reappraisal of its domestic foreign and policies.10

Hasan Askari Rizvi, a leading Pakistani analyst, had argued that there was a

problem in the country’s very political discourse. He maintained that a respectable

number of political leaders and parliamentarians use non-democratic and un-

parliamentary idiom to address their political adversaries. Others, who may not

indulge in such rude and ill-mannered interaction, are unable or unwilling to stop

their party colleagues from adopting such a disposition that brings a bad name to

democratic institutions and processes. Many factors explained the drop in the

quality of political discourse and the use of offensive language by politicians.11

He further argued that:12

The overall governance pattern negates the principles and spirit of democracy.

Instead of creating viable democratic institutions and processes the focus is on

building personalized political fiefdom. Professionalism, administrative

nonpartisanship and judicious handling of state resources and socio-economic

development are replaced with unconditional loyalty to the chief. All

development work for the people is projected as personal favors of the ruler. As

the distribution of state patronage and development fund are done by the ruler at

the personalized level, there is a race in the political party for showing allegiance

to the chief. One way of proving the loyalty is to praise the chief all the time and

adopt a derogatory disposition towards political adversaries. Such a political

culture is the major obstacle to democratic consolidation. The above statement on

the poverty of democracy in Pakistan is not meant to make a case for discarding

it. The deficiencies in Pakistani democracy are correctable — provided the top

political leaders of the major political parties agree to mend their ways. They

need to work towards implementing the norms of democracy in the management

of day-to-day politics and turn their political parties into self-sustaining political

machines with internal democracy. The culture of sycophancy needs to be

replaced with professionalism and experience. The top leaders must attend the

assembly sessions with greater frequency. They must make sure that the members

attend the sessions regularly, take part in the proceedings and maintain the

decorum inside and outside the house. The sooner they make such a beginning

the better.

While CPEC was viewed as a lifeline for Pakistan, yet three potential obstacles

could yet derail this multifaceted project. Muhammad Daim Fazil, in his article “

“Pakistan: What Stands in CPEC’s Way?” published on February 15, 2016

maintained that:13

A lack of domestic consensus can hinder development in any part of the world, and

CPEC is no exception. When CPEC was initially introduced, every mainstream

political party supported it, including the ruling Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz

(PMLN-N). However, the enthusiasm turned to deep concern when political parties

from economically weak provinces (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Baluchistan) felt

that their province’s reservations about CPEC were not being addressed. …Prime

Minister Nawaz Sharif has already twice chaired an All Parties Conference to

address provincial grievances and has formed a committee to tackle the issues.

Regional parties from KPK (Tehreek-i-Insaf, Jamat Islami & Awami National

Party) and Baluchistan (Baluchistan National Party-Mengal) have also organized

APCs to discuss the provincial concerns. The debate has become so heated that

China has felt it necessary to put out a statement urging parties to overcome their

differences….Pakistan has a troubling history of ruining big projects through

political bickering, and there’s fear that CPEC may meet the same fate….Another

aspect that needs to be given close consideration is the status of Gilgit-Baltistan.

Pakistan’s claim that it has semi-autonomous control over (Azad) Kashmir is

probably not wholly convincing to Chinese authorities…Islamabad is now working

to give Gilgit-Baltistan constitutional status by making it the country’s fifth

province. Giving Gilgit provincial status is a bold step. As stated earlier, the region

is part of the disputed Jammu & Kashmir territory, and thus India also lays claim

to it. Giving it status would require Pakistan to back off a decades-old stance of

plebiscite, and would require a disputed territory resolution through the United

Nations. Moreover, there are concerns that India, which also claims Kashmir as its

integral territory, could also annex it….Gilgit-Baltistan is the gateway to Pakistan

from China, but there is no proposed hydropower scheme, economic zone, or

infrastructure development plan – all of which the region needs. Gilgit-Baltistan is

underdeveloped, lacks legal status, and is not getting its fair share of CPEC

attention, all of which could lead to numerous problems…. The security

atmosphere inside Pakistan poses numerous difficulties for CPEC. Starting from

Kashgar, the project will pass through Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa,

followed by Baluchistan. Unlike Gilgit-Baltistan, the latter two have complex

security challenges, owing to years of militancy and the presence of secessionist

elements…. Separatists have frequently targeted Chinese workers in Baluchistan,

while ruthless assaults on state apparatus continue. Chinese authorities are also

wary of the Uighur militants’ connections with the Afghan Taliban. Islamic

militants in China have expanded the extent of their fight against the government

in recent years, and the perpetrators are believed to have links with terrorist groups

in the northwestern belt of Pakistan. Islamabad doing its best to eliminate anti-

China elements from its territory; however, there is a possibility that Uighur and

Taliban (TTP) militants may join forces to threaten CPEC. China is undoubtedly

aware of these conundrums…Sure, there remain real reasons to be skeptical. Much

of the new construction would be done in the vast, restive Pakistani province of

Baluchistan, where the army is still grappling with an entrenched separatist

insurgency. In the recent past extremist outfits linked to ethnic Uighur

separatists within Xinjiang had training camps in Pakistan's rugged borderlands

with Afghanistan. The Uighurs are a Turkic Muslim minority chafing under

Chinese rule. Given close ties with China, their cause rarely galvanized much

Pakistani support.

The Militancy Issue

Although the number of terrorist incidents has declined lately, the issue of

militancy still threatens Pakistan. Surprisingly, the Nawaz Government does not

even have a counter insurgency strategy of any substance to fight off the terrorist

challenges. Meanwhile, the Pakistan Army was exhausted because of the

prolonged War on Terror. The Islamic radical phenomenon is too deeply

entrenched in Pakistani society and institutions that it cannot be easily eradicated.

The country will face the problem for decades to come. A mushrooming effect

happens when a known Islamic radical entity was ended. Another simply grows in

that space available. The military brass was itself unfocused and unable to tackle

the problem because of its deep and confounding nature. The Army dominated the

country still and was not only responsible for the Pakistan’s defense but also for

the domestic security and its foreign relations. The Army chief clearly calls the

shots in Pakistan. Though General Bajwa has been in command of Army for only

four months he is now clearly dominant of Pakistan’s political landscape. Such is

the institutionalized power of the Pakistan Army. Meanwhile, the Nawaz

government was crippled because of corruption, incapacity and political bickering

with the Opposition. The morale is at its lowest in history.

A real crisis was looming across the horizon in the shape of greater interventions

by India. The Government of Pakistan does not have a foreign policy to speak of. It

only reacts to events by external powers, especially the India. It does not have an

agency like Homeland Security in the US that can become the thrust of the fight

against Islamic terrorism. Meanwhile, the political parties are discredited because

of their actions, the bureaucracy demoralized because of bad governance, society

divided on sectarian, linguistic and ethnic social cleavages. Most importantly, the

youth are losing hope in the Pakistani dream. In fact, the country’s educational

institutions are in a shamble and the youth are frustrated as a result. The fact of the

matter is that Pakistan is in a mess because of repeated military interventions.

However, this does not absolve the civilian leadership of their duty to salvage the

country. The tragedy with Pakistan is that the civilian leadership has been

generally as bad as military rule, if not even worse. The lofty expectations of the

people of the Nawaz government have been now dashed to the ground.

Governance challenges were significant and not enough attention was being

focused on the issue. Rule of law was deficient in Pakistan. The country still

ranked at 106/113 in the WJP Rule of Law Index which needs to be changed

urgently. Rule of law was the fundamental principle of Islam, democracy and

even civilization. 14

Pakistan lacked the resolve to tackle the phenomenon of Islamic extremism and

militancy. Ambivalence, appeasement, pusillanimity and denial have been the

defining features of Pakistan’s national response towards this menace in the past.

There was an urgent need for reform of Pakistan’s education system, especially the

religious seminaries or madrassahs catering for the poorest of the poor. In these

seminaries, the children are educated in theological subjects and are heavily

indoctrinated in the extremist version of religion. According to Karin von Hippel,

an amount of $1 billion has annually been spent on such madrassahs, out of which

75 percent of the contribution comes from abroad, mostly from Saudi Arabia.

As per a report by the Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies, there were six religious

organizations in Pakistan in 1947 that have grown to be 239 by 2002. In 2013, in

pursuance of the UN Resolution 1267, 60 militant organizations were banned. But

they kept carrying out their activities by changing their names. Around 23 banned

organizations are operating as the Punjabi Taliban in Punjab alone. An analysis of

the internet presence of such groups shows that 20 out of 60 of them are active

online. The actions of the Nawaz government were not adequate. Raashid Janjua

had correctly argued that Pakistan must adopt a coherent approach to win this war

where India and its allies who were bent on harming the country. The Islamic

militant narrative needs to be countered. A “reverse takfiri doctrine” through our

religious scholars is needed. : 15

The state needs to wrest back mosques from extremists and convert madrassahs

into public schools that teach “a standardized curriculum in sync with the national

curriculum”.16

The weekly Friday sermons in mosques need to be approved by the

government and all religious discourse on the Internet and in print be regulated and

monitored. “The hitherto laissez faire religious franchises must give way to state-

controlled regulation to choke the flow of funds as well as extremist ideas”.

The Nawaz Government must boldly act and change Pakistan from within.

Pakistan does not have the luxury of time. Let the Nawaz Government act

immediately. The future of Pakistan depends on such rethinking. A frank and open

discussion ion these issues must commence immediately. Remember there are no

sacred cows within Pakistan. Notwithstanding the opinion of the military brass, the

Islamic republic of Pakistan was the only thing sacred for the citizens of the

country and not it’s military. Because of past failures, Pakistan was facing an

existential crisis which emanates from several internal and external factors. The

Nawaz government was largely impaired because of massive corruption,

incapacity and endless and unwarranted political bickering with the PML (N) its

main rival for power. The morale of the people is at its lowest in history. India,

arch foe of Pakistan, smells blood and is going for the kill. It is accusing Pakistan

of supporting terrorism and is bent on destroying its global image as a responsible

military power. Tragically, the Nawaz Government does not have a foreign policy

to speak of. It only reacts to events by external powers, especially the US and

India. The Army calls the shots as far as foreign and defense policies are concerned

and the US is interfering in Pakistan’s internal affairs as never, virtually dictating

our foreign policy now.

It was prudent to realize that Pakistan was not only threatened from outside but is

also threatened from within. Seemingly, the current political and military

leadership now stands discredited and does not have any credibility left. The

tragedy of Pakistan does not stop here. The country’s political parties are also

discredited because of their actions, the bureaucracy demoralized because of bad

governance, and the society itself badly divided on sectarian, linguistic and ethnic

social cleavages. Pakistan is now certainly a mess. The country is now among the

list of top ten failed states in the world. This is ironic because Pakistan also

happens to be one of the strongest military powers in the world today. Pakistan’s

military strength cannot prevent an implosion of sorts like what happened with the

Soviet Union in the late 1980s. The country was now dangerously isolated. It was

only China that has shown some support. The people were feeling hapless and

disillusioned as never. The country was in a mess with no silver lining on the

horizon. The only good thing happening in Pakistan was the rising awareness

thanks to the Information Revolution and the expended media. This awareness

needs to be channelized into a political force of some reckoning. Imran Khan’s

Tehreek-i Insaf had showed some promise but it needed several years to establish

itself as a political party of some reckoning. The politics of elections was a

different creature all together. Therefore, the Tehreek-i Insaf couldn’t be expected

to make a dent in the next general elections. Both the Pakistan Peoples Party has

been vanquished and the ruling PML (N) has lost its steam and suffers from poor

and visionless leadership.

The failure of the Nawaz Government was beyond doubt now. The incumbents’

greatest fault is poor governance, which has sadly become the norm in Pakistan.

Poor service delivery has alienated the masses like never. The Army Chief was

more powerful than ever. Civilian space is becoming more and more restricted by

the day. The Nawaz Government’s performance, being dismal, the Army Chief’s

power was now largely by default. Notwithstanding the Nawaz Government’s

claims, the overall performance is pathetic, to say the least. Much was expected

from the PML-N but disappointment reigned.

Instead of proper planning and bold action against terrorism, delay and

procrastination have become hallmarks of the style of governance by the Nawaz

government. Again, notwithstanding the tall claims made by Prime Minister, the

civilian leadership has been both clueless and without any vision on how to tackle

the various challenges confronting Pakistan. The PML-N has been focused on

infrastructure development only. There is nothing wrong with that but a balanced

approach is sorely missing. Meanwhile, the masses have suffered as economic

growth has not been trickling down to them, as was expected and promised. Maybe

it takes time for a new government to adjust but the poor of this country cannot

wait so long. Desperation and alienation have set in the public as only a tiny

segment of the population has prospered. Previously, General Raheel Sharif, then

army chief, had moved gradually and surely to gain influence in Pakistan. The

mandate of the military has now been extended from security to ending corruption

also. Thus, the National Accountability Bureau (NAB), the federal anti-corruption

agency, has started functioning now. The Rangers have started successfully

cleaning up the criminal-political-mafia terror nexus in Karachi. The once hapless

people of Karachi now allow themselves to feel joy at the turn of events in the city.

The military’s encroachment of civilian ruling space continues to expand

unabatedly. The most powerful man in Pakistan was not the PM but the army

chief. General Bajwa, the new Army Chief, seems honest and means business. He

looks bent on cleaning the country of corruption and terrorism. The general is also

perhaps the most popular man in Pakistan today. However, the greatest challenge

remains. Pakistan is still faced with the existential challenge of terrorism,

extremism, corruption and outright criminality. It is not going to be easy to clean

up the mess that is Pakistan now. Past military actions have also contributed to this

poor state of affairs. Everyone shares blame in the creation of the mess that is

Pakistan today. The Army establishments itself suffers from endemic corruption of

an institutionalized nature and cannot be expected to make any dent in the

country’s sorry state of affairs. Terrorism can only be eliminated through a

comprehensive strategy in which all are on board. This requires commitment,

patience and resolve.

The Army Chief had taken command of the situation in the absence of proper

governance and the nation seemingly had resigned to the eventuality. There was

seemingly no alternate to this state of affairs. Meanwhile, the Nawaz government

is becoming defensive and was clearly unnerved by the sudden turn of events in

the country, especially the Panama leaks scandal and the upcoming Supreme Court

verdict regarding the case.

Today, the greatest challenge for General Bajwa remains to eradicate terrorist

groups from the country. The military cannot do it alone and neither can the

elected PML-N government. It almost seems as if a new dispensation shall be

worked out again with General Bajwa clearly in command and the Nawaz

government following his directives. The chances of a coup d’état are zero since

there is simply no need for it. Given the situation in Pakistan and the region, a

military takeover would prove to be catastrophic and therefore cannot be imagined.

Most importantly, the military brass realizes that military rule is also no solution to

Pakistan’s complex and myriad problems. Maybe a latest version of ‘controlled

democracy’ is in the making. Desperate circumstances require new out-of-the-box

thinking. Pakistanis need to ask themselves what they want as a nation: the rule of

an army strong man or a government that gets its act together and works for the

betterment of the people? Whatever the future dispensation in Pakistan the control

of the Army on the country’s foreign and security policies is ensured. The Army is

too powerful and the political party system too weak to resist, not that they are

even trying to wrestle control back from the Army.

Things have moved on, however. Pakistanis are relatively more educated and

exposed as before. The civil society though comparatively weak as an institution is

growing and finding its feet on the ground. The middle class is gradually growing

and public awareness is increasing. The only saving grace in this very dismal

situation was the growing public awareness of Pakistan’s hour of danger. This

awareness has largely happened because of a strident media. Notwithstanding the

defaults, and there are many, the Pakistani media has done well to make the people

aware of the situation in the country. There is still hope because of this

development alone. A crisis is also an opportunity to change. Gradually a better

political leadership hopefully will emerge to steer the country out of the

governance crisis. Patience was needed. Hopefully, in the long-run Pakistan will

get its act together and becomes a great nation that the nation’s forefathers dreamt

about. Only time will tell. The only saving grace in this very dismal situation is the

growing public awareness of Pakistan’s hour of danger. This awareness has largely

happened because of a strident media. Notwithstanding the defaults, and there are

many, the Pakistani media has done well to make the people aware of the situation

in the country. There is still hope because of this development alone. A crisis is

also an opportunity to change.

The military launched Raddul Fasaad, the new countrywide anti-terrorist

offensive, after a series of deadly bombings across Pakistan in February 2017

which had resulted in the death of over 100 people. This was overall 11th military

operation launched in Pakistan since 2007 when the country adopted a

comprehensive strategy to deal with terrorism. But most of earlier campaigns

were restricted to the tribal regions, Balochistan and Karachi.17

The director general of the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), Maj Gen Asif

Ghafoor, on April 17, 2017 announced that Ehsanullah Ehsan, former

spokesperson of the TTP and a senior leader of the Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, had turned

himself in to Pakistan's security agencies. Ghafoor further said:18

"The people, the state and the institutions of Pakistan have made considerable

progress in the betterment of the country's security situation. We have progressed

to the point that the people who've been planning attacks on Pakistan's soil from

across the border have started to see the error of their ways,"

He further claimed that 15 major operations, over 4,000 intelligence based

operation have been carried out in all parts of the country since launch of

operation. Over 5,000 suspects arrested and 1,859 unregistered Afghan nationals

were arrested during the operations. Further, 4083 weapons and 6, 22,191

ammunitions were recovered, while 108 terrorists have so far been killed during

the operations. The work on fencing along the Pak-Afghan border was continuing

and under the first phase country's border linking its Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

province with Afghanistan will be fenced. In the second, phase, Balochistan's

border with Afghanistan will be fenced. 19

According to South Asia Terrorism Portal statistics, 940 civilians were killed in

2015 in terrorist attacks. In 2016, the toll mounted to 612 lives. As of April 9,

2017, the total killed was 184.20

The attacks may have decreased but the

causalities per attack have risen. An example of this is the attack carried out on

February 16, 2017 in which at least 88 civilians were killed. The suicide bomber

blew himself up inside a historic Sufi shrine in the town of Sehwan in Jamshoro

district of Sindh. This is the worst attack, in terms of civilian fatalities, recorded

in Pakistan since the December 2014 Army Public School attack in Peshawar. 21

.

In just one suicide attack on Lal Shahbaz Qalandar’s shrine on February 16, 2017

had left 90 dead and more than 250 people injured.

Officially the operation sought to eliminate the "residual/latent threat of terrorism",

consolidating the gains made in other military operations, and further ensuring the

security of Pakistan's borders. Hundreds of suspected terrorists have reportedly

either been killed or arrested in raids carried out by security personnel since the

start of the operation.

For the first time, after years of appeasing certain Islamist militant groups for

political and religious reasons, the government has reluctantly agreed to allow the

armed forces to enter Punjab province, authorized with special powers to hunt

down, arrest and shoot suspected militants. Punjab had previously remained

immune from such action by paramilitary forces because the province was the

political stronghold of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his ruling party, the PML-

N. It was also the home of a variety of Islamist groups, including mainstream

religious parties, sectarian movements officially banned for their violent methods,

and anti-India militants who have been accused of a 2008 terrorist siege in

Mumbai.

But the hodgepodge of Islamist movements based in Punjab, although attractive to

many conservative Muslims and in some cases used as proxies in Pakistan’s rivalry

with next-door India, is increasingly seen as part of a larger, collaborative threat by

Islamist extremists to Pakistan’s stability, global stature and democratic way of

life.

After the recent attacks, which rocked the nation and embarrassed its new army

chief, the military embarked on a series of raids and arrests last weekend.

Swooping into suspected militant hideouts and supportive communities, from

Karachi in the south to border tribal areas in the north, the military claimed to have

killed more than 100 terrorism suspects in three days.

But they did not touch Punjab. Even though one of the suicide bombs was

detonated in its provincial capital, and police rounded up and arrested numerous

suspects, the region remained off-limits to military forces. The reason was

essentially political. All the extremist groups based in Punjab have served some

useful purpose to the Sharif government and its control of the province. Some have

delivered votes to the Muslim League, which hopes to see Sharif reelected next

year. Some banned Sunni groups, such as Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, have been tolerated

as anti-Shiite but not anti-government, and some have deflected pressure by

changing their names. Jamaat-ud-Dawah, once known as Lashkar-e-Taiba, has

helped rally citizens to the national cause of liberating the border region of

Kashmir from Indian control. In a rare step to curb the group last month, the Sharif

government placed its leader under house arrest, but it has never tried him on

charges from India that he masterminded the 2008 siege of Mumbai.

Critics have been protesting this flirtation for years, warning that it could

encourage the “Talibanization” of Pakistani society and arguing that despite their

different agendas, the extremist groups share common beliefs, can easily form

alliances of convenience and can be difficult to put back into a box once they

gather strength and support.

The U.S. Military Academy, Gen. John W. Nicholson, commander of U.S. forces

in Afghanistan, noted that 20 of the 98 groups the U.S. government has designated

as terrorists are in the region — “the highest concentration anywhere in the world.

Nicholson said that because these groups exist in a common “medium” — with

large numbers of jobless youths, the presence of criminal activity, and extremist

teachings in some religious seminaries — “it creates kind of a petri dish within

which these different strains of terrorism” can “converge, recruit and morph into

more virulent strains.”

Still, it took a week of high-profile bombings, a surge of public criticism and a

private meeting between the army chief, General Bajwa, and senior officials in

Punjab — where the top elected official is Sharif’s brother Shabbaz — to persuade

the government to acquiesce.22

There was an urgent need to act at the intellectual level and the need to propagate

the liberal version of Islam and counter the Jihad narrative with a message of

peace. This required a great political will and effort which was unlikely to happen

any time soon in Pakistan. Both the Army and the ruling PMLN support Islamic

fundamentalists of various shades and colors for their own reasons. Thus, Islamic

fundamentalism will remain in the country for some time and cannot be uprooted

easily.

Owen Bennett Jones, a British journalist and author of Pakistan: Eye of the Storm,

in his article “Selective Approach” published in Dawn, April 13, 2017 argued that

not all militant groups are being targeted and explains why this occurs. He said: 23

And yet elsewhere in the country some militant outfits remain untouched. There

are three types of groups to consider: those active in Afghanistan, the sectarian

groups and the India-facing outfits. Despite all the impassioned official denials, the

world has little doubt that the Afghan Taliban leadership has sanctuary in Quetta.

Given that foreign affairs adviser Sartaj Aziz said as much it’s difficult to believe

anything else. And there is a reason for this policy. In the minds of some of

Pakistan’s military strategists the protection offered to senior Afghan Taliban

leaders and their families serves Pakistan’s national interest. The international

community, the argument goes, will be unable to get a peace deal Afghanistan

without going through Pakistan. Similarly, the links with India-facing groups are

plain for all to see. The idea that Pakistan can rely can on the indigenous

movement in Kashmir may be gaining ground in some official circles but if Modi

is in power the Pakistani militants are going, at the very least, to be held in reserve.

This leaves the sectarian groups. Even for the most hard-bitten supporter of the

state’s use of jihadi proxies, support or toleration of the sectarian groups is very

hard to understand. The sectarian groups cause huge suffering. They deepen a

potentially disastrous rift in Pakistan society. They are already the subject of

outside interference and financing and thereby undermine Pakistan sovereignty. In

addition, they offer a potential route for the militant Islamic State group to get into

Pakistan society. While many analysts believe IS lacks the infrastructure or

popular support base to become a major force in Pakistan, there is still a risk that

the organization could become established by forming an alliance with anti-Shia

groups such as Lashkar-I-Jhangvi. Despite all these serious considerations the

sectarian groups continue to operate. The most likely explanation — beyond

sectarian prejudices reportedly held by some senior officers — is that these groups

are now so numerous that confronting them head-on would risk something

approaching civil war in the key province of Punjab. There are other reasons to

believe that several types of militant groups active outside the northwest will not

be touched. The civilian government has still failed to adopt a clear position on

militancy. Maulana Abdul Aziz Ghazi, one of the leaders of the Lal Masjid

rebellion, remains in charge of an institution that became a byword for anti-state

violence and which was cleansed of violent elements at a prohibitive cost to human

life. Nor has the government instituted sufficiently thorough reforms to undermine

the militants by providing people with schools, hospital and courts. But the failings

are not by civilians alone. The lack of resolve is also creeping into military

parlance. Increasingly, the military is moving away from saying militancy reflects

internal divisions in Pakistan. Instead, it is taking the much easier and convenient

line of blaming it all on foreigners. Even if such claims are sometimes justified,

they run the risk of become a catch-all explanation that will undermine the clear

thinking needed to take on such a difficult adversary.

Abbas Nasir, “What military ops can’t deliver” published on February 2017 argued

that the current security operations were quite clearly aimed at the Takfiris - those

who kill in the name of Islam and considered even Muslims following a different

interpretation of their faith as justified to be slaughtered. However, such ideology

defies what the vast, peaceful majority Pakistanis profess to be Islam. Taliban

represent this thinking. Will it be enough then when the Takfiri thinking was

defeated? 24

He further stated: 25

To me, a larger battle will be the one to somehow move society to a ‘live and let

live’ state from the current intolerant, even bigoted, environment…. It is

incumbent, then, on those who are elected to step forward and make sure that

Quaid-i-Azam’s plural Pakistan is a reality. Equally, state institutions have to

abandon their surrogate, non-state actors. No military operation can achieve that.

An associated internal challenge to counter-terrorism efforts was purging the

militant and religious-political groups of the Saudi influence, particularly those

currently operating across various borders in south Asia. The war in Syria and the

simmering conflicts in Yemen as well as in Iraq are some of the manifestation of

how the Saudi geo-political agenda drives political narratives in countries such as

Pakistan and Afghanistan. Robert Fisk, a vocal British critic of western duplicity

on Israel and Saudi Arabia, pointed out in The Independent (Nov 17, 2015) the

complete refusal to think about Saudi Arabia’s role “as a purveyor of the most

extreme Wahabi-Sunni form of Islam, in which IS believes, shows how our leaders

still decline to recognize the links between the kingdom and the organization

which struck Paris”.26

Pakistan was a victim of the playing out of an intense Saudi-

Iranian rivalry in the region. Sectarian groups had flourished in Pakistan that had

foreign connections. Foreign wars and conflicts had attracted some Pakistani

nationals also. For example, some Pakistani and afghan Shia were now fighting to

defend the Assad regime in Syria who was a fellow Alawi Shia. Outside factors

compound the terrorism phenomenon in Pakistan.

The lack of a comprehensive counterterrorism strategy and failure of civilian-

military cooperation is causing problem in the fight against terrorism inside

Pakistan. The editorial entitled “Third year of NAP” published in Pakistan Today

on March 19, 2017 claimed that the sudden increase in terrorism seemed to have

died down somewhat, but it could reappear. Undoubtedly Zarb-e-Azb had dealt a

strong blow to Pakistan’s enemies by abolishing its command and control structure

in FATA sending Taliban fleeing the Afghanistan sanctuary. However, there was a

cause militants were still able to evade the security machinery. Several important

points in the NAP have not been taken seriously. Among the most notable is failure

to share information among dozens of intelligence and security agencies and, of

course, the sad state of affairs of madrassa reforms. The prime minister’s too-little-

too-late speeches on the so-called national narrative against terrorism

notwithstanding, the government has done precious little to influence that sea of

Pakistanis that is unable to decide about the merits of the enemy’s so-called jihad.

Not only has the narrative just been missing for so long, but the root of the problem

has never been addressed. It’s not that all madrassas, or even many of them, are

militant-making factories. It’s that even the best intentioned mostly impart a form

of religious education that blurs the practical religious understanding of most

common people. So far, the government has not realized the centrality of this

initiative. Unless regressive education institutions along with deliberate

brainwashing centers are shut down completely, the enemy will always have an

inexhaustible supply of its so called jihadis. Said:27

Nearly after four years of rule the Nawaz government suffered from bad

governance which had become the norm. An editorial aptly entitled “Bad

Governance as the hallmark of PML-N rule” published in Pakistan Today on

March 16, 2017 maintained that it began from the first day and continued till

toady. The arbitrary hike in the sales tax soon after coming to power had to be

withdrawn since it could not have been imposed until Parliament passed the

Finance Bill. Much later, the Supreme Court canceled promotions of senior

officials by a selection board headed by the Prime Minister on grounds of these

conflicting with the prescribed procedure. The Premier being the chief executive of

the country was required to take all major decisions in Cabinet meetings. For three

years, Nawaz Sharif took these decisions himself not caring for the Cabinet till

Supreme Court told the Government that this was unconstitutional. Secretiveness

continues to persist in Government, forcing the Chinese government to intervene to

remove these reservations. Total concentration on big projects which can be

translated into votes at the next elections leads the Nawaz Government to ignore its

constitutional responsibilities. The Supreme Court had to intercede numerous times

to direct the Nawaz Government to correct its path. The Nawaz Government

against its wishes had to be forced into the conduct of the Local Government

elections and the Census. The method in which the Nawaz Government had

managed the circular debt was another example of bad governance and lack of

transparency. The secretive way the debt was paid off soon after the government

came to power and the way it pied up to the dangerous level of Rs 216 billion in

less than six months was no secret. This happened despite the Finance Minister’s

solemn promise that the circular debt would never be permitted to escalate again.

The circular debt had now spilled over the entire fuel supply chain, choking ports,

and refineries and down to transport. Meanwhile, the responsible federal ministries

blamed one another for the crisis. This was yet another example of bad

governance. 28

Pakistan suffered from lack of political will to tackle the country’s mushrooming

seminary problem. The state had failed to initiate education reforms in the public

sector. The galling failures were responsible in a large youth body that was very

poorly educated and badly trained to take up any meaningful jobs in the growing

economy. The entire education sector was in shambles with very few exceptions.

Madrassah education was perhaps the worst of all. It was estimated that a decade

ago, Pakistan had about 25,000 religious seminaries across the country. Now,

however, the number was estimated to be around 35,000. Under a madrassa reform

process that was much earlier approved by the government of Pervez Musharraf,

religious seminaries were required to register and make public their funding

resources. However, beyond the realm of what law demands, it was a bitter reality

that successive governments since Musharraf’s rule have not been able to ensure

that religious seminaries register with the government, let alone making public

their financial records. So far, Pakistan has shut down about 2,327 religious

schools nationwide. Out of these, about 2,300 have been shut down in the province

of Sindh alone while only two have been closed in Punjab. While the actual

number of religious seminaries in Pakistan is in thousands, the closure of 2,300

religious seminaries, whose details remain anonymous, doesn’t reflect in any way a

headed policy action. Earlier this week, the chief of army staff stressed that the

implementation of NAP needs to be expedited jointly by relevant stakeholders.

Such requests by the military have been made before which are an indication that

the civilian leadership’s role, which under NAP also involves early regulation of

religious seminaries, has been deplorable.

The early implementation of madrassa reforms should therefore be a vital

component of any state level strategy that envisions a tolerant and progressive

Pakistan.29

The Nawaz Government must boldly act and change Pakistan from within.

Pakistan does not have the luxury of time. Let the Nawaz Government act

immediately. The future of Pakistan depends on such rethinking. A frank and open

discussion ion these issues must commence immediately. Remember there are no

sacred cows within Pakistan. Notwithstanding the opinion of the military brass, the

Islamic republic of Pakistan was the only thing sacred for the citizens of the

country and not it’s military. Because of past failures, Pakistan was facing an

existential crisis which emanates from several internal and external factors. The

Nawaz government was largely impaired because of massive corruption,

incapacity and endless and unwarranted political bickering with the PML (N) its

main rival for power. The morale of the people is at its lowest in history. India,

arch foe of Pakistan, smells blood and is going for the kill. It is accusing Pakistan

of supporting terrorism and is bent on destroying its global image as a responsible

military power. Tragically, the Nawaz Government does not have a foreign policy

to speak of. It only reacts to events by external powers, especially the US and

India. The Army calls the shots as far as foreign and defense policies are concerned

and the US is interfering in Pakistan’s internal affairs as never, virtually dictating

our foreign policy now.

It was prudent to realize that Pakistan was not only threatened from outside but is

also threatened from within. Seemingly, the current political and military

leadership now stands discredited and does not have any credibility left. The

tragedy of Pakistan does not stop here. The country’s political parties are also

discredited because of their actions, the bureaucracy demoralized because of bad

governance, and the society itself badly divided on sectarian, linguistic and ethnic

social cleavages. Pakistan is now certainly a mess. The country is now among the

list of top ten failed states in the world. This is ironic because Pakistan also

happens to be one of the strongest military powers in the world today. Pakistan’s

military strength cannot prevent an implosion of sorts like what happened with the

Soviet Union in the late 1980s. The country was now dangerously isolated. It was

only China that has shown some support. The people were feeling hapless and

disillusioned as never. The country was in a mess with no silver lining on the

horizon. The only good thing happening in Pakistan was the rising awareness

thanks to the Information Revolution and the expended media. This awareness

needs to be channelized into a political force of some reckoning. Imran Khan’s

Tehreek-i Insaf had showed some promise but it needed several years to establish

itself as a political party of some reckoning. The politics of elections was a

different creature all together. Therefore, the Tehreek-i Insaf couldn’t be expected

to make a dent in the next general elections. Both the Pakistan Peoples Party has

been vanquished and the ruling PML (N) has lost its steam and suffers from poor

and visionless leadership.

The failure of the Nawaz Government was beyond doubt now. The incumbents’

greatest fault is poor governance, which has sadly become the norm in Pakistan.

Poor service delivery has alienated the masses like never. The Army Chief was

more powerful than ever. Civilian space is becoming more and more restricted by

the day. The Nawaz Government’s performance, being dismal, the Army Chief’s

power was now largely by default. Notwithstanding the Nawaz Government’s

claims, the overall performance is pathetic, to say the least. Much was expected

from the PML-N but disappointment reigned.

Instead of proper planning and bold action against terrorism, delay and

procrastination have become hallmarks of the style of governance by the Nawaz

government. Again, notwithstanding the tall claims made by Prime Minister, the

civilian leadership has been both clueless and without any vision on how to tackle

the various challenges confronting Pakistan. The PML-N has been focused on

infrastructure development only. There is nothing wrong with that but a balanced

approach is sorely missing. Meanwhile, the masses have suffered as economic

growth has not been trickling down to them, as was expected and promised. Maybe

it takes time for a new government to adjust but the poor of this country cannot

wait so long. Desperation and alienation have set in the public as only a tiny

segment of the population has prospered. Previously, General Raheel Sharif, then

army chief, had moved gradually and surely to gain influence in Pakistan. The

mandate of the military has now been extended from security to ending corruption

also. Thus, the National Accountability Bureau (NAB), the federal anti-corruption

agency, has started functioning now. The Rangers have started successfully

cleaning up the criminal-political-mafia terror nexus in Karachi. The once hapless

people of Karachi now allow themselves to feel joy at the turn of events in the city.

The military’s encroachment of civilian ruling space continues to expand

unabatedly. The most powerful man in Pakistan was not the PM but the army

chief. General Bajwa, the new Army Chief, seems honest and means business. He

looks bent on cleaning the country of corruption and terrorism. The general is also

perhaps the most popular man in Pakistan today. However, the greatest challenge

remains. Pakistan is still faced with the existential challenge of terrorism,

extremism, corruption and outright criminality. It is not going to be easy to clean

up the mess that is Pakistan now. Past military actions have also contributed to this

poor state of affairs. Everyone shares blame in the creation of the mess that is

Pakistan today. The Army establishments itself suffers from endemic corruption of

an institutionalized nature and cannot be expected to make any dent in the

country’s sorry state of affairs. Terrorism can only be eliminated through a

comprehensive strategy in which all are on board. This requires commitment,

patience and resolve.

Pakistan desires peace in the region which is badly needed for its stability,

progress, and economic development. However, it is hampered from achieving its

desired goals by a corrupted political system and a weak leadership. Bold

leadership is missing in the country. The Army which still calls the shots in foreign

and security policymaking is still myopic in its views and is obsessed with the

enmity of India. Thus, Pakistan was moving closer to China and Russia as its

mortal enemy- India – moved very close to the United States. For the military

establishment in Pakistan ii appeared to be a zero-sum game.

Pakistan must make efforts for peace with its neighbors but is challenged to do so

by its own weak leadership at the helm of state affairs. However, with help from

friends like United States it can make a break through. There are some indications

that the new Trump Administration might be conducive to the idea. Without

resolving the Kashmir lingering dispute peace in the region is impossible. Given

the nature of the region’s history a settlement of the Kashmir dispute is very

difficult but not impossible. It was in every one’s interest that the Global War

against Terrorism be ended immediately as the al Qaeda’s leadership has been

crippled. Osama bin laden and Mullah Omer were long dead. Previously, the US

had accused Pakistan of supporting the Afghan Taliban, especially the Haqqani

group and that of Mullah Omer. Things have changed now and Pakistan wasn’t

supporting the Haqqani group anymore. Previously, the Pakistan army is assisting

some elements of the Afghan Taliban only because they are considered as

strategies assets and future Afghan power holders. Pakistan must negotiate with the

US an end of Indian interference in Baluchistan and most importantly,

independence of Kashmir. Only the US has the prestige and status with India that

can possibly take our two countries towards an eventual solution. Pakistan needs to

convince the US that it would be ready to suspend expansion of its nuclear arsenal

once there is tangible progress towards a viable and permanent solution in

Kashmir.

Pakistan and all neighbors desired regional peace but that was only possible with

the solution to the Kashmir dispute. Nothing else will convince the powerful

Pakistan military establishment to suspend the further development of the nuclear

arsenals. Remember the country with the most rapid expansion of nuclear weapons

is Pakistan. This is indeed ironic because Pakistan is also a country imploding from

within. Pakistan’s nuclear weapons cannot save it from this landslide. Bad

governance and corruption is now endemic in the country. The Pakistan military

leadership must realize that having such a large nuclear establishment is not

helping matters at all. We are facing an unconventional war and nuclear weapons

are of no use here. The primary threat is from within, as rightly acknowledged by

the Army brass recently. Pakistan had suffered from militancy more than any other

country in the world. The Nawaz Government must concentrate on fighting those

Islamic radicals who have established themselves for foreign jihad ventures

thereby acting against the national interests of the Pakistani state. This is not a war

but mainly a counter –terrorism problem much like what India has witnessed in the

last few decades, meaning that it must be taken as basically police operations only.

No massive use of force is necessary here. Plus, the real battle is to win over the

dissatisfied local populace through economic and social development. Only here

can the battle be won. This was not a conventional war but an extraordinary

unconventional conflict which required the Nawaz government to use new

weapons and tactics to fight and win. Pakistan’s leadership had to act smart and

think out of the box. Things are very different than Pakistan’s experiences in

previous wars with India. Islamabad has been soaking up the benefits of its ever-

growing relations with China for decades – arms sales, joint projects both military

and economic, across-the-board diplomatic support, etc. But in recent years, their

relations have been spurred by CPEC.

In conclusion, Pakistan was a mess. It was facing an acute image problem. Today

Pakistan was misunderstood and was therefore being unfairly treated by the United

States and other Western powers for its perceived connections to global terrorism.

It was more complicated state of affairs now. However, there indeed a need for a

foremost reappraisal of Pakistan’s domestic and foreign policies. Pakistan should

strengthen its system of democracy because it was very deficient in countless

ways and not functioning at all. The political paralysis was a result of these

systematic faults. Islamic fundamentalist, poor governance, absence of

democratic norms, intolerance in society, and inertia was the principle cause of

the situation. Lack pf political will to reform both state and society may be the

single biggest reason for the mess: examining the deeper problem of bolstering

the deficient, undemocratic decision-making structures. Due to the disinterest

towards institutionalized decision-making by Pakistan’s rulers it was hardly

surprising that policy and decision-making of national importance remained

essentially personalized and incoherent. It was this very flaw that prevented the

Government of Pakistan from conducting a true national strategy. Until and

unless there was an institutional decision-making process Pakistan would

continue to have lack of intellectual content the country would always be faced

with the crisis. Pakistan faced much larger challenges because of this poor

policymaking. The county’s past was haunting it now. Reckless decisions like the

infamous U-turn of Genera Musharraf after 9/11 where Pakistan became an ally

of the United States without weighing the full consequences of this abrupt

departure of foreign policy. The Army’s continued support of Jihadist entities like

the Jaish-e-Mohammad, Haqqani network, and Quetta Shura. The main reason for

this state of affairs was the personalist nature of rule in Pakistan. The civilian

leaders don’t follow democratic norms of decision-making. This empowered the

Army even more and provided further leverage to it to influence Pakistan’s

decision-making. The Neither the Cabinet nor the Parliament are fulfilling their

given roles assigned to them. Even the Judiciary is very deficient, especially at

the lower levels. The Parliament doesn’t properly fulfill its legislative and

oversight Pakistan, as was the norm in the system of democracy. The Cabinet

doesn’t deliberate as was needed for proper administration of the state

institutions. The notion of national security was primary driver of Pakistan’s

national interest which had given significant leverage to the military. The military

itself had a deficient national security paradigm and a very narrow focus of the

regional situation, let alone the global one. It was obsessed with its enmity with

India, the historic rival. This doesn’t condone Indian actions in any way. The

point was that the military as an institution was necessarily focused on fighting

wars and winning them and not working for peace. The United States and other

Western powers continued to consider Pakistan through Indian or Afghan lens.

The erroneous view of Pakistan, in which security remained the paramount

national interest for the United States and other powers, had exaggerated

increased Pakistan’s domestic political problems. India was now employing

territory in Afghanistan for deploying TTP and other dissident elements against

Pakistan. In clear contrast, to the criticism of Pakistan’s support of some Jihadist

entities that had external focus, there wasn’t any disapproval by United States and

other Western powers regarding India’s its brutal repression of the Kashmiri

independence movement and its policies towards Pakistan. Indian interference in

Pakistan’s internal affairs and support of Baluch insurgents, MQM and TTP was

well-documented but remained ignored by the United States and other Western

powers. On the contrary, there were powerful voices in the United States that

were coming up with legislation punishing Pakistan. The reason for this biased

approach was obvious. The United States had tilted towards India in very

significant manner because of perceived commercial gains and other economic

interests. The two counties had grown remarkably closes in the last few years or

so. The United States now considered India as a strategic partner and the

nefarious role of India in destabilizing Pakistan was conveniently ignored. After

all, the TTP and these ant-Pakistan groups based in Afghanistan and operating

from Afghanistan’s territory weren’t a targeting the United States nor other

Western powers. Hence, a blind eye to their nefarious activities. To expect

Pakistan to turn direction at once was simply expecting too much. This wasn’t

going to happen any time soon. However, a peace deal between India and

Pakistan and a solution to the Kashmir dispute can possibly turn things around in

the desired direction. Here the United States can play a key role.

The CPEC is a game changer and opens trade between the Central Asia and the

Middle East, Africa and Europe. Its major purpose is for China to increase its

trade with these regions by improving and simplifying logistics and

transportation. Currently imports into Europe from China account for about $450

billion which has room to grow in a $7 trillion market. As trade increases along

this corridor, it would be foolish if Pakistan did not develop its own national

strategy to cooperatively capitalize and cash in some of the economic

opportunities presented. The CPEC provides an unprecedented opportunity to

Pakistan as it fulfills its geostrategic potential as the gateway of trade between

Central Asia to the Middle East, Africa and Europe. It is ideally situated to

become the most significant maritime trade hub between the Europe and Asia. A

regional hub provides many opportunities other than logistics and transportation

including legal, financial,

The CPEC is a game-changing opportunity for Pakistan. Global pundits are

looking at the multi-trillion dollar investments being made by China and saying

that its effective utilization is key to the success of this vision. Similarly, for

Pakistan, if we do not evolve a vision of how we use this improved infrastructure

and realignment of global trade in this region for our benefit, and execute on it

effectively we are in danger of being left behind. Indeed, it will be a shame if we

do not rise to the opportunity and fashion national consensus on an inclusive

strategy that leverages this project to propel a major part of our population, and

not just a few families, into the economy of the 21st century.

30

Meanwhile, purposeful and sustainable reform is badly needed in Pakistan.

Pakistan can only come out of this vicious cycle through a major reappraisal of its

domestic foreign and policies. An excellent advice was given in a very recent

editorial in Newsweek Pakistan which had argued:31

Pakistan can yet do more to shift out of its frozen military strategy of hanging its

entire foreign policy on hatred of India. It can break out of its current regional and

global isolation by adopting the posture of its friend China and invite India to join

the trading corridor China is building in the country. It can also revive the snagged

gas pipeline project with Iran by inviting India back into it, also offering it the

trade route India wants to Afghanistan and Central Asia through its territory.

Undoubtedly, Pakistan’s current policy of permanent Indian enmity and conflict

was going nowhere. Pakistan was a security state because of this approach. The

Pakistan military was adamant in confronting and was still supporting some

jihadist elements like the LeT, HQN, and Quetta Shura for its own purposes.

Clearly, a change in direction was required now. Given the complexity of the

regional situation, more robust diplomacy was urgently to get Pakistan out of the

current morass and crisis. However, the Nawaz government wasn’t up to the task

and was failing to protect Pakistan’s vital national interests. Plus, it faced an

immense image problem because of the Panama Papers case pending in the

Supreme Court of Pakistan.

Pakistan was faced with horrendous situation inside the country as rapid population

growth was fueling a massive rural to urban migration, strain on the cities, and

massive environmental degradation. People were suffering from poor environment,

lack of social services and neglect of state institutions to respond to the situation in

any coherent manner. Bad governance was the norm, not the exception in state

institutions. The poverty gap was striking and was widening in many areas of the

country. Pakistan was deficient in governance matters as public services were

inadequate and there was immense poverty in the country. The Human

Development Index (HDI) was extremely low in Pakistan. The HDI was devised

and launched in 1990, and was a statistic which ranked countries into four tiers of

human development based on indicators like life expectancy, education and per

capita income. A higher lifespan, higher level of education and higher GDP per

capita results in a country scoring higher HDI.

Earlier, the 2015 Human Development Report (HDR), by the United Nations

Development Programme (UNDP) declared that with a HDI value of 0.538,

Pakistan ranks 147 out of 188 countries and territories. Pakistan ranks 121st out of

155 countries in terms of its Gender Inequality Index: only 19.3 percent of women

reach secondary education compared to 46.1 percent of men, while female

participation in the labor market is 24.6 percent compared to 82.9 percent for

men.32

Pakistan ranked again at 147 among 188 countries on HDI in 2016 as

released by the UNDP. 33

In a scathing criticism of the country’s state of affairs in social welfare the Dawn

editorial entitled “Human Development” published in Dawn, April 17, 2017

claimed that over the last twenty years most of South Asia has witnessed progress

in human development. More children are in school, people are living longer, and

there is greater access to basic social services. That said, countries such as Pakistan

and Afghanistan rank low on human development indicators because of severe

neglect of public health and education, according to Health in South Asia, a

collection of analyses launched recently in Delhi. Examining rising infant

mortality, vulnerability to infectious diseases and the poor capacity to respond to

outbreaks, this research finds that the level of preparedness is inadequate to protect

public health in South Asia — home to a quarter of the world’s population. The

findings are no secret especially in countries where extreme poverty, child deaths,

stunted development and limited future productivity have hampered progress.

Noting that Afghanistan has the highest fertility rate followed by Pakistan, the

work underscores the need for governments to invest in early childhood years

through quality schooling, nutrition and healthcare. In Pakistan alone, 800,000

children die annually, more than 35pc from malnutrition. Regrettably, even such

grim statistics fail to jolt our government’s conscience. For starters, with the

population growing at the annual rate of almost 2pc, the government must

campaign for smaller families with greater vigor across the country, and invest in

accelerated family planning and female literacy to lower the fertility rate. With its

pulse on economic development policies, the PML-N surely realizes that

investment and sound policies in health, education and good governance are the

only way to create a quality workforce.

It was intolerable that, regionally, Pakistan had the highest rate of infant mortality

when the government was obligated to implement policy changes having signed up

to the SDGs. Moreover, the World Bank had declared that it would name and

shame countries before potential investors for failing to tackle stunting. The death

of children due to hunger and the absence of government action and outrage was a

stain on Pakistan’s collective conscience. There were 400,000 starving children in

Thar and despite international food fortification assistance of over $1m;

malnutrition had deplorably increased in Pakistan.34

Democratic institutions are fragile and need to be strengthened through patient

and sustained efforts. It was a doable, when there was the required political will.

Essentially Pakistan’s overall governance form simply refutes democratic

principles and practices. The personalized political system doesn’t allow the

building of any workable democratic institutions. The prevailing norm of loyalty

to the political leader had superseded the much-needed ethics of professionalism,

merit, proper administration of governed funds, neutral bureaucracy, and focus on

national socio-economic development. The only thing that matters in government

is unconditional loyalty to the political leadership. Thus, the political leadership

dispenses largesse and favors to the public instead of public rights and

entitlements. The social contract has broken and a patronage system has

developed instead. The leadership gets elected to bestow favors to those who got

them to their much-coveted positions. Elections have become a business and were

also getting more and more expensive as the years go on. The whole atmosphere

of governance had been corrupted as money made an enormous impact on

election outcomes. The leadership that came out of the electoral system was

mostly transactional minded. Meaning the elected leadership was only there to

reap hay while the sun shines and pocket as much money as was possible under

the circumstances. Notwithstanding some exceptions, the entire leadership of the

country was now corrupted beyond imagination. Resultantly, new values had

entered the governed system of Pakistan. Sycophancy and timid behavior of the

rulering circles and the bureaucracy that served them had all but destroyed the

integrity of the entire system. Policymaking is on whims and becomes ineffective

as serious deliberations aren’t the norm any more. Mistakes result as the

leadership couldn’t see the whole picture nor get professional advice speaking

truth to power. Even figures are routinely fudged to present a better picture to the

world. This sorry state of affairs was now a reality in Pakistan. How can

Pakistan’s political leadership and military rulers turn the county into a modern

civilized nation with a contemporary system of government? Clearly, Pakistan

society was failing to confront the daunting challenges facing it. How can the state

face these challenges when some sections of it were even supporting Islamic

extremism? How can the Nawaz Government, media, enlightened scholars, and

jurists unite to formulate the path for essential reform in the legal, political and

social spheres? Why wasn’t enough voices of sanity speaking up now in the face of

such cynical manipulation of Islamic sentiment. In any civilization, the rule of law

must be supreme principle, and all state institutions must to guarantee that the

principle exists and not the law of the jungle. It was a stark failure of both the

Pakistani state and society, that the populace negated the belief that all people are

innocent until proven guilty. Finally, questions must also be asked of Pakistan

Army establishment which still considered some preservation of Islamic militancy

as an essential and required element of country’s security policy. Though

continuous military operations were designed to eradicate terrorism, the relentless

flow of Islamic messaging of Jihad and the fear of India had now entered the very

fabric of Pakistani society. The country’s political and military leadership used

Islam to manipulate the people and to legitimize their power. Thus, society was

being radicalized. If critical actions are not taken to finish the appeasement of

Islamic extremism, no National Action Plan or military operation shall be adept to

suppress the threatening forces of Islamic extremism that were now being let loose

across the country. Pakistan had seen an unprecedented surge in Islamic extremism

and fanaticism in the past decade. Islamist groups had constantly targeted religious

minorities in Pakistan to impose their version of strict Islamic law on people.

Pakistan is facing an existential challenge from within by Islamic fundamentalism

which has taken deep roots in the country and cannot be easily uprooted. Given

the weaknesses of the ruling establishment, both military and civilian, it will take

decades to eradicate the menace from Pakistan’s state and society. The anarchy

unleashed by Islamic fundamentalist must be checked in Pakistan before it

engulfs the whole region in further chaos. A lot of deliberations have led to

several initiatives but nothing remarkable has been reached so far. Pakistan

response to terrorism is lacking a comprehensive approach. There was too much

emphasis on Army operations and not enough was done at the critical civil

administration, civil intelligence apparatuses and local policing spheres.

Resultantly, the country will continue to be challenged by terrorism, Islamic

extremism and insurgencies for decades to come. There was no silver lining on

the horizon, so to speak. That was Pakistan’s tragedy.

The country was expected to improve on the economic front thanks to CPEC

imitative but the sheer negligence of the ruling establishment to tackle the issue

of social justice and enlightened Islam will draw it back from reaching its true

potential. The anarchy unleashed by Islamic fundamentalist must be checked in

Pakistan before it engulfs the whole region in further chaos. Much depends on

timely action taken by the ruling establishment of Pakistan to get its own act

together to achieve the true prospects of economic development presented to the

country by the CPEC initiative. Bad governance is still the norm in Pakistan and

not the exception. Badly needed reform measures still await the nation. The

nation is poorer because of its poor leadership, both military and civilian. It is

hoped that a turnaround maybe yet happen as a new civilian leadership replaces

the current lot. Pakistan has enormous potential in its youth but lacks leadership

to make full use of the potential. The leadership is bickering among itself,

complacent and corrupt. Too bad for the country. There was also a bright side to

the country’s dismal picture, however. Pakistan can indeed have a great future,

and be on the road of success and sustainable peace. Pakistanis are the most

resilient nation. Pakistan’s can indeed position itself in the region as a massive

trade corridor that will catapult this country to economic prosperity and a symbol

of geostrategic integration. Pakistan as the regional trade, industrial, and economic

hub will be in a position of strength and the world will endeavor to improve

relations with Pakistan. Pakistan believes in cooperation, instead of competition.

Pakistan is carving out a trajectory of progress for the region by way of economics,

which the world needs to recognize and acknowledge. Pakistan faced an existential

crisis of a daunting magnitude. The primary threat was from within the country.

The time was to go back to the liberal message of Islam and propagate the Sufi

version of it where the principle of Sulh-i Kul or peace with all must become the

new societal paradigm of governance and mutual conduct of communal affairs.

The message of peace and tolerance in the liberal version of Islam must be adopted

by both state and society in Pakistan. Given the sorry state of affairs in Pakistan,

there was little choice in the matter. It was time to act. Bold measures were

needed and enlightened leadership at the helm of affairs in the country.

Much depends on the future leadership of the country not only at the governmental

level but also at the societal level, especially the intellectual level. It was hoped

that Pakistan would indeed make the best of the golden opportunity made available

by the CPEC project and turn around the country towards a path of economic

development, prosperity for all, peace and national security.

Dr. Sohail Mahmood is a faculty member at Oxford Higher Academy, UK and Professor & Board

Member, Department of Political Science, Faculty UniVirtuelle, Methodologica Universitas.

1Salman Siddiqui, "Pakistan will be paying China $90b against CPEC-related projects”, The

Express Tribune, March 12th

, 2017,

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1352995/pakistan-will-paying-china-90b-cpec-related-projects/,

accessed March 12, 2017

and also New Islamabad airport to be named Xi Jinping airport

The Express Tribune, April 1, 2017, https://tribune.com.pk/story/1369701/new-islamabad-

airport-named-xi-jinping-airport/, accessed April 1, 2017

2 Salman Siddiqui, “CPEC investment pushed from $55b to $62b”. Express Tribune, April 12,

2017, https://tribune.com.pk/story/1381733/cpec-investment-pushed-55b-62b/, accessed April

12, 2017

3 Athar Z Abbasi, CPEC: Destiny changer, The Nation, April 12, 2017While

http://nation.com.pk/columns/12-Apr-2017/cpec-destiny-changer, accessed April 12, 2017

4Salman Siddiqui, “ CPEC investment pushed from $55b to $62b”, Express Tribune, April 12,

2017, https://tribune.com.pk/story/1381733/cpec-investment-pushed-55b-62b/, accessed April

12, 2017

5 Pak-Russia Defence Relations by Muhammad Sarmad Zia March 21, 2017 April 1, 2017 CISS

ARTICLE BRIEF Monthly Articles Brief, March – April 2017 Issue, Centre for Intranational

strategic Studies, Islamabad, 18

6 Zahid Chaudhary, “CPEC symbolizes people centric approach of Pak, China: Nawaz”, April 7,

2017, http://pakobserver.net/cpec-symbolizes-people-centric-approach-of-pak-china-nawaz/,

accessed April 11, 2017

7 Pakistan welcomes Britain’s desire to join CPEC, Express Tribune, April 7, 2017,

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1377378/pakistan-welcomes-britains-desire-join-cpec/, accessed

April 8, 2017

8 Belarus keen to join CPEC, delegation tells President Mamnoon, Express Tribune,

Published: April 11, 2017, https://tribune.com.pk/story/1380845/belarus-keen-join-cpec-says-

delegation-meeting-president-mamnoon/, accessed April 16, 2017

9 Marvin G. Weinbaum “Pakistan: Just Getting By”, Special Briefing: The Middle East in the

Year Ahead, Middle east Institute, January 5, 2017, http://www.mei.edu/content/article/special-

briefing-middle-east-year-ahead, accessed March 16, 2017

10

Talat Masood, “Pakistan’s multiple woes”, The Express Tribune, March 21, 2017,

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1361922/pakistans-multiple-woes-2/, accessed March 22,

2017EXPRESS NEWS

11 Hasan Askari Rizvi, “The problem of political discourse”, The Express Tribune, March 21

st,

2017.

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1360860/problem-political-discourse/.essed March 21, 2017

12

Ibid 13

Muhammad Daim Fazil, in his article “Pakistan: What Stands in CPEC’s Way?” The

Diplomat, February 15, 2016, http://thediplomat.com/2016/02/pakistan-what-stands-in-cpecs-

way/ accessed March 12, 2016

14

The Express Tribune, March 30th

, 2017, accessed March 31, 2017. 15

Raashid Wali Janjua, Countering terrorism, The News, March 19, 2017.

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/193211-Countering-terrorism, accessed March 19, 2017

16 Ibid

17 TTP hideout destroyed, huge cache of weapons recovered from FATA: ISPR, Express tribune,

April 16, 2017, https://tribune.com.pk/story/1385119/ttp-hideout-destroyed-huge-cache-

weapons-recovered-fata-ispr/, accessed April 16, 2017 18

Former TTP spokesman Ehsanullah Ehsan has turned himself in: Pak Army, Dawn, April 17,

2017, https://www.dawn.com/news/1327567/former-ttp-spokesman-ehsanullah-ehsan-has-

turned-himself-in-pak-army, accessed April 17, 2017 19

OPERATION RADD-UL-FASAAD TO CONTINUE TILL ELIMINATION OF

TERRORISTS: DG ISPR, RADIO PAKISTAN, APRIL 17, 2017, http://www.radio.gov.pk/17-

Apr-2017/operation-radd-ul-fasaad-to-continue-till-complete-elimination-of-terrorists-dg-ispr,

ACCESSED APRIL 17, 2017 20

See South Asia Terrorism Portal

http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/pakistan/database/casualties.htm, accessed April 14,

2017 21

22

Pamela Constable, “Pakistan army launches first nationwide anti-terrorism operation”,

Washington Post, February 23, 2017 , https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/pakistan-

army-launches-first-nationwide-anti-terrorism-operation/2017/02/23/36765c3e-f9cc-11e6-aa1e-

5f735ee31334_story.html, accessed April 14, 2017 and 9 'hardcore terrorists' killed in shootout

with security personnel in DG Khan: ISPR, DAWN.COM, April 14, 2017,

ttps://www.dawn.com/news/1326928/9-hardcore-terrorists-killed-in-shootout-with-security-

personnel-in-dg-khan-ispr, accessed April 14, 2017, and Hafsa Khaled, “Alter the savage

mindset” The Express Tribune, April 1, 2017. https://tribune.com.pk/story/1370935/alter-

savage-mindset/, accessed April 1, 2017

23 Owen Bennett Jones, “Selective Approach” published in Dawn, April 13, 2017,

https://www.dawn.com/news/1326544/selective-approach, accessed April 14, 2017

24

ABBAS NASIR, "What military ops can’t deliver”, Dawn, February 25, 2017,

https://www.dawn.com/news/1316758/what-military-ops-cant-deliver, accessed April 14, 2017 25

ABBAS NASIR, "What military ops can’t deliver”, Dawn, February 25, 2017,

https://www.dawn.com/news/1316758/what-military-ops-cant-deliver, accessed April 14, 2017 26

Imtiaz Gul, “Pakistan’s Counter-Terrorism in 2016, February 16, 2016 Center for Research &

Security Studies http://crss.pk/story/pakistans-counter-terrorism-in-2016/, accessed March 11,

2016

27 See the editorial “Third year of NAP”, Pakistan Today on March 19, 2017

http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2017/03/19/third-year-of-nap/, accessed March 19,

2017sttated

28 An editorial aptly entitled “Bad Governance as the hallmark of PML-N rule” published in

Pakistan Today on March 16, 2017http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2017/03/16/bad-

governance-as-the-hallmark-of-pml-n-rule/, accessed March 19, 2017 29

Pakistan’s ‘unreformed’ madrassa enterprise”, Pakistan Today, March 1, 2017,

http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2017/03/19/pakistans-unreformed-madrassa-enterprise/,

accessed March 19, 2017

30 The Express Tribune, March 30

th, 2017, , accessed March 31, 2017

31 See editorial “TWEAKS REQUIRED”, MARCH 22, 2017, NEWSWEEK PAKISTAN,

http://newsweekpakistan.com/tweaks-required/, accessed March 22, 2017 32

Pakistan ranked 147th on HDI, UNDP report, The News, January 26, 2016,

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/93753-Pakistan-ranked-147th-on-HDI, accessed April 17,

2017

33 India ranks 131 on Human Development Index, Business Recorder, March 22, 2017,

http://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ians/india-ranks-131-on-human-development-

index-117032200885_1.html, accessed April 17, 2017

34 See EDITORIAL, “Human development”, Dawn, April 17, 2017

https://www.dawn.com/news/1327406/human-development accessed April 17, 2017