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Joint Hurricane Test Bed (JHT)Joint Hurricane Test Bed (JHT) 2005 IHC Update 2005 IHC Update

Joint Hurricane Test Bed (JHT)Joint Hurricane Test Bed (JHT) 2005 IHC Update 2005 IHC Update

USWRP

Dr. Jiann-Gwo JiingDr. Jiann-Gwo JiingJHT DirectorJHT Director

Technical Support Branch Chief, TPC/NHCTechnical Support Branch Chief, TPC/NHC9 March 20059 March 2005

Dr. Jiann-Gwo JiingDr. Jiann-Gwo JiingJHT DirectorJHT Director

Technical Support Branch Chief, TPC/NHCTechnical Support Branch Chief, TPC/NHC9 March 20059 March 2005

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OutlineOutline

1. First Round Projects (FY01-02)2. Second Round Projects (FY03-04)3. Third Round Projects (FY05)4. JHT Website and Outreach Activities

1. First Round Projects (FY01-02)2. Second Round Projects (FY03-04)3. Third Round Projects (FY05)4. JHT Website and Outreach Activities

3New SHIPS model predictors

AMSU intensity and size estimates

GFDL Hurricane Model upgrades

TC rainfall climatology and persistence

(R-CLIPER) model

Probability ofrapid intensification

JHT First Round (FY01-02) ProjectsAccepted in 2003 by TPC and NCEP for Operational Implementation

JHT First Round (FY01-02) ProjectsAccepted in 2003 by TPC and NCEP for Operational Implementation

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Factors Considered in TPC DecisionsFactors Considered in TPC Decisionson Operational Implementationon Operational Implementation

(Applied to decisions on all Round One and Two projects (Applied to decisions on all Round One and Two projects completed to date)completed to date)

Factors Considered in TPC DecisionsFactors Considered in TPC Decisionson Operational Implementationon Operational Implementation

(Applied to decisions on all Round One and Two projects (Applied to decisions on all Round One and Two projects completed to date)completed to date)

• Forecast or Analysis Benefit: expected improvement in operational forecast and/or analysis accuracy

• Efficiency:Efficiency: adherence to forecaster time constraints adherence to forecaster time constraints and ease of use needsand ease of use needs

• Compatibility:Compatibility: IT compatibility with operational IT compatibility with operational hardware, software, data, communications, etc.hardware, software, data, communications, etc.

• Sustainability:Sustainability: availability of resources to operate, availability of resources to operate, upgrade, and/or provide supportupgrade, and/or provide support

• Forecast or Analysis Benefit: expected improvement in operational forecast and/or analysis accuracy

• Efficiency:Efficiency: adherence to forecaster time constraints adherence to forecaster time constraints and ease of use needsand ease of use needs

• Compatibility:Compatibility: IT compatibility with operational IT compatibility with operational hardware, software, data, communications, etc.hardware, software, data, communications, etc.

• Sustainability:Sustainability: availability of resources to operate, availability of resources to operate, upgrade, and/or provide supportupgrade, and/or provide support

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• 15 projects were initially funded late in FY03– 12 two-year and 3 one-year projects

• PIs presented updates at 58th IHC (Mar 2004)• Real-time testing and evaluation during 2004 hurricane season• Three one-year projects concluded (Aug 2004)

– JHT reports to TPC/NHC Director (Nov 2004)– Two projects accepted by TPC/NHC Director for operational implementation

• 12 two-year projects renewed for a second year (FY04 funding)– Testing and evaluation to continue during 2005 hurricane season– Decisions on operational implementation in late 2005

• 15 projects were initially funded late in FY03– 12 two-year and 3 one-year projects

• PIs presented updates at 58th IHC (Mar 2004)• Real-time testing and evaluation during 2004 hurricane season• Three one-year projects concluded (Aug 2004)

– JHT reports to TPC/NHC Director (Nov 2004)– Two projects accepted by TPC/NHC Director for operational implementation

• 12 two-year projects renewed for a second year (FY04 funding)– Testing and evaluation to continue during 2005 hurricane season– Decisions on operational implementation in late 2005

Status of 15 Second Round Projects (FY03-04)

Status of 15 Second Round Projects (FY03-04)

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• Special evening session at AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology (May 2004)

• JHT Announcement of Federal Funding Opportunity (AFFO) published June 2004– Solicited proposals for new, third round projects (FY05 funding)

• Review of full proposals completed January 2005• Final selection and funding to be completed during

March-April 2005• Real-time testing and evaluation during 2005 hurricane

season (and in 2006 for renewed two-year projects)• Decisions in 2006 or 2007 on operational

implementation

• Special evening session at AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology (May 2004)

• JHT Announcement of Federal Funding Opportunity (AFFO) published June 2004– Solicited proposals for new, third round projects (FY05 funding)

• Review of full proposals completed January 2005• Final selection and funding to be completed during

March-April 2005• Real-time testing and evaluation during 2005 hurricane

season (and in 2006 for renewed two-year projects)• Decisions in 2006 or 2007 on operational

implementation

General Timetable for Round Three General Timetable for Round Three Projects (FY05 Funding)Projects (FY05 Funding)

General Timetable for Round Three General Timetable for Round Three Projects (FY05 Funding)Projects (FY05 Funding)

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New Aspects to FY05 Announcement

New Aspects to FY05 Announcement

• Updated TPC and EMC prioritized forecast improvement needs

• Revised proposal review criteria• Explicit listing of criteria used by TPC for decisions

on operational implementation

• Updated TPC and EMC prioritized forecast improvement needs

• Revised proposal review criteria• Explicit listing of criteria used by TPC for decisions

on operational implementation

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FY05 JHT Proposal Review Criteria (Condensed)

FY05 JHT Proposal Review Criteria (Condensed)

• Relevance to program goals (40 pts)Relevance to program goals (40 pts)– Research maturity (10 pts)Research maturity (10 pts)– Priority-to-payoff factors (25 pts)Priority-to-payoff factors (25 pts)– Other agency use (5 pts)Other agency use (5 pts)

• Technical merit (40 pts)Technical merit (40 pts)– Risk-to-payoff factors (10 pts)Risk-to-payoff factors (10 pts)– Testing (10 pts)Testing (10 pts)– Operational usage (10 pts)Operational usage (10 pts)– Technical compatibility (10 pts)Technical compatibility (10 pts)

• Overall qualification of applicants (10 pts)Overall qualification of applicants (10 pts)

• Project costs (10 pts)Project costs (10 pts)

• Relevance to program goals (40 pts)Relevance to program goals (40 pts)– Research maturity (10 pts)Research maturity (10 pts)– Priority-to-payoff factors (25 pts)Priority-to-payoff factors (25 pts)– Other agency use (5 pts)Other agency use (5 pts)

• Technical merit (40 pts)Technical merit (40 pts)– Risk-to-payoff factors (10 pts)Risk-to-payoff factors (10 pts)– Testing (10 pts)Testing (10 pts)– Operational usage (10 pts)Operational usage (10 pts)– Technical compatibility (10 pts)Technical compatibility (10 pts)

• Overall qualification of applicants (10 pts)Overall qualification of applicants (10 pts)

• Project costs (10 pts)Project costs (10 pts)

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FY05 Review ProcessFY05 Review Process

• Preapplications (Letters of Intent) reviewed in Aug 2004– 40 preapplications reviewed– 18 recommended to submit a full proposal

• Full proposals reviewed during Nov 2004 – Jan 2005– 19 proposals reviewed– Proposals independently reviewed and scored by 7 JHT Steering

Committee members based upon review criteria listed in the AFFO

• Preapplications (Letters of Intent) reviewed in Aug 2004– 40 preapplications reviewed– 18 recommended to submit a full proposal

• Full proposals reviewed during Nov 2004 – Jan 2005– 19 proposals reviewed– Proposals independently reviewed and scored by 7 JHT Steering

Committee members based upon review criteria listed in the AFFO

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FY05 Selection ProcessFY05 Selection Process

• Total available funding $1.2 million

• Reviewers’ scores used to produce a rank ordering of the proposals by overall mean total scores– After normalizing by each individual reviewer’s mean total score

• TPC and JHT Directors (and EMC Director for model-related projects) recommend funding top 15 proposals– Rank order unchanged from review scoring results– Funding maximum number of proposals given available funds– Funding approval in progress– Approximate funded work period April 2005-April 2006– Two-year projects initially funded for one year, and will be

reviewed after first year for a second year of funding

• Total available funding $1.2 million

• Reviewers’ scores used to produce a rank ordering of the proposals by overall mean total scores– After normalizing by each individual reviewer’s mean total score

• TPC and JHT Directors (and EMC Director for model-related projects) recommend funding top 15 proposals– Rank order unchanged from review scoring results– Funding maximum number of proposals given available funds– Funding approval in progress– Approximate funded work period April 2005-April 2006– Two-year projects initially funded for one year, and will be

reviewed after first year for a second year of funding

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Primary Area of Focus # of Projects

Improvements to dynamical models (for track, intensity, and precipitation forecasts)

4

Intensity forecast guidance 4

Enhancements to observed data, assimilation 3

Tropical cyclone structure/wind distribution 2

Track forecast guidance 1

Enhancements to operational environment 1

Total 15

Third Round (FY05)Project Focus Areas(Pending Final Funding Approval)

Third Round (FY05)Project Focus Areas(Pending Final Funding Approval)

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2nd Round (FY03) Funding DistributionTotal $1.35 M

2nd Round (FY03) Funding DistributionTotal $1.35 M

NOAA 49%

Private Companies 2%

State and Private Universities 34%

Navy (NPS, NRL) 15%

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3rd Round (FY05) Funding DistributionTotal $1.2M

3rd Round (FY05) Funding DistributionTotal $1.2M

NOAA 39%

Private Companies 9%

State and Private Universities 36%

Navy (NPS, NRL) 16%

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www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/jht

JHT WebsiteJHT Website

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JHT Outreach PresentationsJHT Outreach Presentations

• NWS regional marine and tropical workshops (March-April 2004)• National Hurricane Conference (April 2004)• AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology (May

2004)• NOAA Hurricane Conference (December 2004)• AMS Annual Meeting (January 2005)

• NWS regional marine and tropical workshops (March-April 2004)• National Hurricane Conference (April 2004)• AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology (May

2004)• NOAA Hurricane Conference (December 2004)• AMS Annual Meeting (January 2005)

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AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements

• JHT Steering Committee• Richard Knabb, TPC SOO and JHT Admin. Asst.• Chris Landsea, AOML/HRD and JHT Admin. Asst.• Alison Krautkramer, JHT IT Specialist• JHT principal investigators and other funded

participants• Ward Seguin and John Gaynor (USWRP)• TPC and EMC forecaster and technical points of

contact• TPC/TSB IT staff• TPC/NHC admin staff

• JHT Steering Committee• Richard Knabb, TPC SOO and JHT Admin. Asst.• Chris Landsea, AOML/HRD and JHT Admin. Asst.• Alison Krautkramer, JHT IT Specialist• JHT principal investigators and other funded

participants• Ward Seguin and John Gaynor (USWRP)• TPC and EMC forecaster and technical points of

contact• TPC/TSB IT staff• TPC/NHC admin staff

www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/jht

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Supplemental SlidesSupplemental Slides

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Primary Area of Focus # of Projects

Improvements to dynamical models (for track, intensity, and precipitation forecasts)

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Track forecast guidance algorithms 3

Intensity forecasting algorithms 3

Enhancements to observed data, assimilation 2

Initial intensity estimation 1

Tropical cyclogenesis 1

Rainfall 1

Total 15

Second Round (FY03-04)Project Focus Areas

Second Round (FY03-04)Project Focus Areas

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Input for JHT Project ReportsInput for JHT Project Reportsto the TPC Directorto the TPC Director

Input for JHT Project ReportsInput for JHT Project Reportsto the TPC Directorto the TPC Director

• Project PI final reportProject PI final report• JHT staff members’ assessmentsJHT staff members’ assessments• TPC Point of Contact (POC) feedbackTPC Point of Contact (POC) feedback• JHT IT Facilitator reportJHT IT Facilitator report

– IT transfer statusIT transfer status– Compatibility and support issuesCompatibility and support issues– Estimates of costs to implement and supportEstimates of costs to implement and support– Input from TPC Technical Support Branch ChiefInput from TPC Technical Support Branch Chief

• Project PI final reportProject PI final report• JHT staff members’ assessmentsJHT staff members’ assessments• TPC Point of Contact (POC) feedbackTPC Point of Contact (POC) feedback• JHT IT Facilitator reportJHT IT Facilitator report

– IT transfer statusIT transfer status– Compatibility and support issuesCompatibility and support issues– Estimates of costs to implement and supportEstimates of costs to implement and support– Input from TPC Technical Support Branch ChiefInput from TPC Technical Support Branch Chief

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Status of 10 First Round Projects (FY01-02)

Status of 10 First Round Projects (FY01-02)

• Ten projects were funded in FY01• One was denied second year funding• Six were accepted for operational implementation • Decisions on two projects were deferred until the completion of closely related new projects• One was not accepted for operational implementation at this time

• Ten projects were funded in FY01• One was denied second year funding• Six were accepted for operational implementation • Decisions on two projects were deferred until the completion of closely related new projects• One was not accepted for operational implementation at this time

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JHT Issues (2004)JHT Issues (2004)• Perceptions

– Lack of initial fairness and openness• Addressed by the JHT Federal Register Notices in 2003 and

2005– NOAA laboratories have an unfair advantage over non-NOAA

research institutions• More than half of the funds awarded in FY 03 went to non-

NOAA institutions (even greater non-NOAA funding expected in 2005)

• JHT Steering Committee comprises four non-NOAA members and three NOAA members

• Heavy workload for TPC– 27 projects will be active during at least part of 2005 season

• Intended to be the only year with overlap of two project rounds– Impact on administrative, technical, and operations staff

• TPC and JHT staffs are identifying ways to streamline and delegate work, based on lessons learned from completion of a full first round of projects, and a partial second round

• Perceptions– Lack of initial fairness and openness

• Addressed by the JHT Federal Register Notices in 2003 and 2005

– NOAA laboratories have an unfair advantage over non-NOAA research institutions

• More than half of the funds awarded in FY 03 went to non-NOAA institutions (even greater non-NOAA funding expected in 2005)

• JHT Steering Committee comprises four non-NOAA members and three NOAA members

• Heavy workload for TPC– 27 projects will be active during at least part of 2005 season

• Intended to be the only year with overlap of two project rounds– Impact on administrative, technical, and operations staff

• TPC and JHT staffs are identifying ways to streamline and delegate work, based on lessons learned from completion of a full first round of projects, and a partial second round

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JHT Issues continuedJHT Issues continued

• IT compatibility– Potential lack of resources for operational implementation of

beneficial, cutting-edge techniques• Will seek funding to implement such techniques as needs arise

• Funding cycle and schedule– Lengthy process from announcement of opportunity to dispersal

of funds to non-NOAA participants• NOAA is addressing the grants applications and awards

process– First two rounds asynchronous with hurricane season (would be

highly desirable for projects to not miss a hurricane season)• Earlier release of FY05 announcement of opportunity

• IT compatibility– Potential lack of resources for operational implementation of

beneficial, cutting-edge techniques• Will seek funding to implement such techniques as needs arise

• Funding cycle and schedule– Lengthy process from announcement of opportunity to dispersal

of funds to non-NOAA participants• NOAA is addressing the grants applications and awards

process– First two rounds asynchronous with hurricane season (would be

highly desirable for projects to not miss a hurricane season)• Earlier release of FY05 announcement of opportunity