11

Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT)Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT)2009 Update2009 Update

Transition from Research to OperationsTransition from Research to Operations

Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT)Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT)2009 Update2009 Update

Transition from Research to OperationsTransition from Research to Operations

Jiann-Gwo JiingJiann-Gwo JiingChief, Technical Support Branch, NHCChief, Technical Support Branch, NHC

JHT DirectorJHT Director

Jiann-Gwo JiingJiann-Gwo JiingChief, Technical Support Branch, NHCChief, Technical Support Branch, NHC

JHT DirectorJHT DirectorChris Landsea

NHCChris Landsea

NHCShirley Murillo

NOAA/HRDShirley Murillo

NOAA/HRD

63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane ConferenceSt. Petersburg, FL

March 5, 2009

22

OutlineOutlineOutlineOutline

• Summary of JHT projects 2001-2008Summary of JHT projects 2001-2008

• Major 2008-2009 activities at JHT & NHCMajor 2008-2009 activities at JHT & NHC

• Challenges aheadChallenges ahead

• Summary of JHT projects 2001-2008Summary of JHT projects 2001-2008

• Major 2008-2009 activities at JHT & NHCMajor 2008-2009 activities at JHT & NHC

• Challenges aheadChallenges ahead

33

Summary of JHT projects Summary of JHT projects 2001-20082001-2008

Summary of JHT projects Summary of JHT projects 2001-20082001-2008

• 1) 1) Number of projects supported: 50 Number of projects supported: 50 – 41 completed, 30 accepted for operational implementation41 completed, 30 accepted for operational implementation– Number of projects rejected: 5Number of projects rejected: 5– Number of projects completed but pending further investigation Number of projects completed but pending further investigation

(decisions deferred): 5(decisions deferred): 5– Number of projects in process: 9 Number of projects in process: 9

• 2) 2) Implementation Implementation – Number of projects implemented: 26.5Number of projects implemented: 26.5

• Number of numerical modeling related projects implemented Number of numerical modeling related projects implemented by EMC/NCO: 10 by EMC/NCO: 10

• Number of projects implemented by NHC: 16.5 Number of projects implemented by NHC: 16.5 – Number of projects accepted but not yet fully implemented by Number of projects accepted but not yet fully implemented by

NHC: 3.5 NHC: 3.5 Note: Note: • 1) Implementation is defined when a project is completed, accepted, and the technique 1) Implementation is defined when a project is completed, accepted, and the technique

installed on NCEP/NCO or NHC operational systems and runs on operational time frame. installed on NCEP/NCO or NHC operational systems and runs on operational time frame. • Some techniques were “implemented” on JHT platform for testing.Some techniques were “implemented” on JHT platform for testing.

• 1) 1) Number of projects supported: 50 Number of projects supported: 50 – 41 completed, 30 accepted for operational implementation41 completed, 30 accepted for operational implementation– Number of projects rejected: 5Number of projects rejected: 5– Number of projects completed but pending further investigation Number of projects completed but pending further investigation

(decisions deferred): 5(decisions deferred): 5– Number of projects in process: 9 Number of projects in process: 9

• 2) 2) Implementation Implementation – Number of projects implemented: 26.5Number of projects implemented: 26.5

• Number of numerical modeling related projects implemented Number of numerical modeling related projects implemented by EMC/NCO: 10 by EMC/NCO: 10

• Number of projects implemented by NHC: 16.5 Number of projects implemented by NHC: 16.5 – Number of projects accepted but not yet fully implemented by Number of projects accepted but not yet fully implemented by

NHC: 3.5 NHC: 3.5 Note: Note: • 1) Implementation is defined when a project is completed, accepted, and the technique 1) Implementation is defined when a project is completed, accepted, and the technique

installed on NCEP/NCO or NHC operational systems and runs on operational time frame. installed on NCEP/NCO or NHC operational systems and runs on operational time frame. • Some techniques were “implemented” on JHT platform for testing.Some techniques were “implemented” on JHT platform for testing.

44

2008-present Major Activities2008-present Major Activities2008-present Major Activities2008-present Major Activities

• Completion of 15 third round (2005-Completion of 15 third round (2005-2007) projects2007) projects– Completed in August 2007Completed in August 2007– Final evaluation (NHC/EMC POCs & JHT) Final evaluation (NHC/EMC POCs & JHT)

• September-December 2007September-December 2007– Decision on acceptance for implementation (NHC and EMC Decision on acceptance for implementation (NHC and EMC

Directors)Directors)• Decisions made January 2008Decisions made January 2008

– 4 criteria for acceptance4 criteria for acceptance– 12 projects accepted12 projects accepted– 3 projects deferred pending further evaluation3 projects deferred pending further evaluation

– ImplementatonImplementaton• 11 implemented: 4 by EMC/NCO & 7 by NHC11 implemented: 4 by EMC/NCO & 7 by NHC

• Completion of 15 third round (2005-Completion of 15 third round (2005-2007) projects2007) projects– Completed in August 2007Completed in August 2007– Final evaluation (NHC/EMC POCs & JHT) Final evaluation (NHC/EMC POCs & JHT)

• September-December 2007September-December 2007– Decision on acceptance for implementation (NHC and EMC Decision on acceptance for implementation (NHC and EMC

Directors)Directors)• Decisions made January 2008Decisions made January 2008

– 4 criteria for acceptance4 criteria for acceptance– 12 projects accepted12 projects accepted– 3 projects deferred pending further evaluation3 projects deferred pending further evaluation

– ImplementatonImplementaton• 11 implemented: 4 by EMC/NCO & 7 by NHC11 implemented: 4 by EMC/NCO & 7 by NHC

55

2008-present Major Activities2008-present Major Activities2008-present Major Activities2008-present Major Activities

Factors Considered in Decisions on Factors Considered in Decisions on Acceptance/Operational ImplementationAcceptance/Operational Implementation

• Forecast or Analysis Benefit:Forecast or Analysis Benefit: expected improvement in expected improvement in operational forecast and/or analysis accuracyoperational forecast and/or analysis accuracy

• Efficiency:Efficiency: adherence to forecaster time constraints and adherence to forecaster time constraints and ease of use needsease of use needs

• Compatibility:Compatibility: IT compatibility with operational hardware, IT compatibility with operational hardware, software, data, communications, etc.software, data, communications, etc.

• Sustainability:Sustainability: availability of resources to operate, upgrade, availability of resources to operate, upgrade, and/or provide supportand/or provide support

Factors Considered in Decisions on Factors Considered in Decisions on Acceptance/Operational ImplementationAcceptance/Operational Implementation

• Forecast or Analysis Benefit:Forecast or Analysis Benefit: expected improvement in expected improvement in operational forecast and/or analysis accuracyoperational forecast and/or analysis accuracy

• Efficiency:Efficiency: adherence to forecaster time constraints and adherence to forecaster time constraints and ease of use needsease of use needs

• Compatibility:Compatibility: IT compatibility with operational hardware, IT compatibility with operational hardware, software, data, communications, etc.software, data, communications, etc.

• Sustainability:Sustainability: availability of resources to operate, upgrade, availability of resources to operate, upgrade, and/or provide supportand/or provide support

Cont.

66

2008-present Major Activities 2008-present Major Activities 2008-present Major Activities 2008-present Major Activities

Implementation (NHC)Implementation (NHC)• Some relative easySome relative easy• Some very complicatedSome very complicated• NHC contributes NHC contributes ≥ ≥ 0.5 FTE/yr on 0.5 FTE/yr on

implementationimplementation• JHT IT facilitator assists in the processJHT IT facilitator assists in the process

• NCEP/EMC and NCO also contributedNCEP/EMC and NCO also contributed

Implementation (NHC)Implementation (NHC)• Some relative easySome relative easy• Some very complicatedSome very complicated• NHC contributes NHC contributes ≥ ≥ 0.5 FTE/yr on 0.5 FTE/yr on

implementationimplementation• JHT IT facilitator assists in the processJHT IT facilitator assists in the process

• NCEP/EMC and NCO also contributedNCEP/EMC and NCO also contributed

Operational Centers are not funded for this taskOperational Centers are not funded for this task

Cont.

77

Highlights of 3Highlights of 3rdrd Round Implemented Projects Round Implemented ProjectsHighlights of 3Highlights of 3rdrd Round Implemented Projects Round Implemented Projects

Topographic Wind Effects - Miller

HWRF – Tuleya, Powell

VORTRAC – Lee/Bell/Harasti

GFDL – Bender

OLD GFDL (2)NEW GFDL (4)OLD GFS (1)NEW GFS (3)

88

Highlights of 3Highlights of 3rdrd Round Implemented Projects Round Implemented ProjectsHighlights of 3Highlights of 3rdrd Round Implemented Projects Round Implemented Projects

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120

Forecast Time (hr)

Perc

en

t Im

pro

vem

en

t

Atlantic (All Cases)

Atlantic (Near Land)

Corrected Consensus Track Forecasts - Goerss Wind Radii Decay Model - Kaplan

Inclusion of Dropsonde Moisture into GFS – Aberson/Dunion

Revised SHIPS intensity forecast scheme – DeMaria/Knaff

99

Highlights of 3Highlights of 3rdrd Round Implemented Projects Round Implemented ProjectsHighlights of 3Highlights of 3rdrd Round Implemented Projects Round Implemented Projects

Wind Radii Decay Model - KaplanImprovements to ATCF operating system - Sampson

Enhancements to Wind Probability Products – Knaff/DeMaria

SFMR - Carswell/Black

1010

2008-present Major Activities2008-present Major Activities2008-present Major Activities2008-present Major Activities

• Second year funding renewal for 4Second year funding renewal for 4 thth round round projects – April - June 2008projects – April - June 2008

• Testing of 4Testing of 4thth round projects round projects– Collaboration with PICollaboration with PI– ProgrammingProgramming– Establishing data flowEstablishing data flow– Generating output for forecaster use/evaluationGenerating output for forecaster use/evaluation

• Second year funding renewal for 4Second year funding renewal for 4 thth round round projects – April - June 2008projects – April - June 2008

• Testing of 4Testing of 4thth round projects round projects– Collaboration with PICollaboration with PI– ProgrammingProgramming– Establishing data flowEstablishing data flow– Generating output for forecaster use/evaluationGenerating output for forecaster use/evaluation

Cont.

1111

C urrently-funded J HT projec ts mapped onto NHC priorities (AF F O '09)

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

NHC 1 NHC 2 NHC 3 NHC 4 NHC 5 NHC 6 NHC 7 NHC 8 NHC 9 NHC 10 NHC 11 NHC 12 NHC 13 NHC 14

NH C P riority

Man

-yea

rs

1212

C urrently-funded J HT projec ts mapped onto T C res earc h needs

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 A6 B 1 B 2 B 3 B 4 B 5 B 6 B 7 C 1 C 2 C 3

T C R es earc h needs

Man

-yea

rs

B2: Model development/improvementsB3: Physical processes in models on track, intensity and structure, and precipitation B6: Advanced, probabilistic guidance; optimal ensemble construction and configuration; C1: Observing strategies/capabilities C2: Observations to support model diagnostics and verification C3: New and/or improved observational

technologies

1313

2008-present Major Activities2008-present Major Activities2008-present Major Activities2008-present Major Activities

• Preparation for 5Preparation for 5thth round projects round projects 1.1. Draft Federal Funding Opportunity (FFO) (March 08)Draft Federal Funding Opportunity (FFO) (March 08)

• Centers prioritiesCenters priorities

• Evaluation criteriaEvaluation criteria

– FFO published early JulyFFO published early July– SC Review of Pre-applications (September) SC Review of Pre-applications (September) – PIs submitting full proposals (Oct 30)PIs submitting full proposals (Oct 30)– SC Review of full proposals (completed)SC Review of full proposals (completed)

• Preparation for 5Preparation for 5thth round projects round projects 1.1. Draft Federal Funding Opportunity (FFO) (March 08)Draft Federal Funding Opportunity (FFO) (March 08)

• Centers prioritiesCenters priorities

• Evaluation criteriaEvaluation criteria

– FFO published early JulyFFO published early July– SC Review of Pre-applications (September) SC Review of Pre-applications (September) – PIs submitting full proposals (Oct 30)PIs submitting full proposals (Oct 30)– SC Review of full proposals (completed)SC Review of full proposals (completed)

Cont.

1414

Challenges for 2009Challenges for 2009Challenges for 2009Challenges for 2009• Fifth round funding processesFifth round funding processes

– Rank and select proposals for funding (completed)Rank and select proposals for funding (completed)– Work with Grants Office to fund selected projectsWork with Grants Office to fund selected projects– Find Point of contacts among NHC forecasters and support staff Find Point of contacts among NHC forecasters and support staff – Work with PIs to setup timelines for their projectsWork with PIs to setup timelines for their projects

• Test and evaluation (with NHC & EMC)Test and evaluation (with NHC & EMC)– Prepare real-time testing & evaluation for 5Prepare real-time testing & evaluation for 5thth round projects round projects – Set up necessary software code and data flow.Set up necessary software code and data flow.

• Completion of 4Completion of 4thth round projects round projects– Final reports for 4Final reports for 4thth round projects round projects– POC feedbackPOC feedback– JHT final review/reports to NHC DirectorJHT final review/reports to NHC Director

• Implement newly accepted projects (TPC)Implement newly accepted projects (TPC)

• Fifth round funding processesFifth round funding processes– Rank and select proposals for funding (completed)Rank and select proposals for funding (completed)– Work with Grants Office to fund selected projectsWork with Grants Office to fund selected projects– Find Point of contacts among NHC forecasters and support staff Find Point of contacts among NHC forecasters and support staff – Work with PIs to setup timelines for their projectsWork with PIs to setup timelines for their projects

• Test and evaluation (with NHC & EMC)Test and evaluation (with NHC & EMC)– Prepare real-time testing & evaluation for 5Prepare real-time testing & evaluation for 5thth round projects round projects – Set up necessary software code and data flow.Set up necessary software code and data flow.

• Completion of 4Completion of 4thth round projects round projects– Final reports for 4Final reports for 4thth round projects round projects– POC feedbackPOC feedback– JHT final review/reports to NHC DirectorJHT final review/reports to NHC Director

• Implement newly accepted projects (TPC)Implement newly accepted projects (TPC)

1515

AcknowledgementsAcknowledgementsAcknowledgementsAcknowledgements

• JHT Steering CommitteeJHT Steering Committee• Shirley Murillo, JHT Admin. Asst.Shirley Murillo, JHT Admin. Asst.• Chris Landsea, JHT Admin. Asst.Chris Landsea, JHT Admin. Asst.• Jose Salazar, JHT meteorologist/programmerJose Salazar, JHT meteorologist/programmer• NHC and EMC forecaster and points of contactNHC and EMC forecaster and points of contact• NHC/Technical Support Branch staffNHC/Technical Support Branch staff• JHT principal investigators and other funded JHT principal investigators and other funded

participantsparticipants• John Gaynor (USWRP)John Gaynor (USWRP)• NHC admin staffNHC admin staff

• JHT Steering CommitteeJHT Steering Committee• Shirley Murillo, JHT Admin. Asst.Shirley Murillo, JHT Admin. Asst.• Chris Landsea, JHT Admin. Asst.Chris Landsea, JHT Admin. Asst.• Jose Salazar, JHT meteorologist/programmerJose Salazar, JHT meteorologist/programmer• NHC and EMC forecaster and points of contactNHC and EMC forecaster and points of contact• NHC/Technical Support Branch staffNHC/Technical Support Branch staff• JHT principal investigators and other funded JHT principal investigators and other funded

participantsparticipants• John Gaynor (USWRP)John Gaynor (USWRP)• NHC admin staffNHC admin staff

1616

JHT WebsiteJHT WebsiteJHT WebsiteJHT WebsiteGo to www.nhc.noaa.gov

1717

Thank youThank you

1818

Supplemental SlidesSupplemental SlidesSupplemental SlidesSupplemental Slides

1919

4th Round (FY07-08) Recommended 4th Round (FY07-08) Recommended Funding DistributionFunding Distribution

Total $1.04M ($1.5M announced)Total $1.04M ($1.5M announced)

4th Round (FY07-08) Recommended 4th Round (FY07-08) Recommended Funding DistributionFunding Distribution

Total $1.04M ($1.5M announced)Total $1.04M ($1.5M announced)

Private Companies 24%Private Companies 24%

NOAA 20%NOAA 20% State and Private Universities 33%

State and Private Universities 33%

Navy (NPS, NRL) 11%Navy (NPS, NRL) 11%

NASA 12%NASA 12%(0%)

(16%)

(36%)

(9%)

(39%)

2020

LogisticsLogistics• Dedicated physical space in operations, officesDedicated physical space in operations, offices

PersonnelPersonnel• NHC dedicating about 1.5 FTE spread across ~12 peopleNHC dedicating about 1.5 FTE spread across ~12 people

– 0.5 FTE reimbursed by USWRP for quarter-time JHT Director and one 0.5 FTE reimbursed by USWRP for quarter-time JHT Director and one quarter-time JHT administrative assistant quarter-time JHT administrative assistant

– NHC contributing 1.0 FTE, including NHC member on JHT Steering NHC contributing 1.0 FTE, including NHC member on JHT Steering Committee, forecasters, and technical support staffCommittee, forecasters, and technical support staff

• Forecaster and technical points of contact (POC)Forecaster and technical points of contact (POC)• Programming, system administration, and network Programming, system administration, and network

supportsupport• Administrative supportAdministrative support

Computing ResourcesComputing Resources• Network connectivityNetwork connectivity• Operational data flowOperational data flow

LogisticsLogistics• Dedicated physical space in operations, officesDedicated physical space in operations, offices

PersonnelPersonnel• NHC dedicating about 1.5 FTE spread across ~12 peopleNHC dedicating about 1.5 FTE spread across ~12 people

– 0.5 FTE reimbursed by USWRP for quarter-time JHT Director and one 0.5 FTE reimbursed by USWRP for quarter-time JHT Director and one quarter-time JHT administrative assistant quarter-time JHT administrative assistant

– NHC contributing 1.0 FTE, including NHC member on JHT Steering NHC contributing 1.0 FTE, including NHC member on JHT Steering Committee, forecasters, and technical support staffCommittee, forecasters, and technical support staff

• Forecaster and technical points of contact (POC)Forecaster and technical points of contact (POC)• Programming, system administration, and network Programming, system administration, and network

supportsupport• Administrative supportAdministrative support

Computing ResourcesComputing Resources• Network connectivityNetwork connectivity• Operational data flowOperational data flow

NHC Contributions to JHTNHC Contributions to JHTNHC Contributions to JHTNHC Contributions to JHT

2121

JHT InfrastructureJHT InfrastructureJHT InfrastructureJHT InfrastructurePersonnel Personnel • Quarter-time Director (NOAA FTE)Quarter-time Director (NOAA FTE)• 7-member Steering Committee7-member Steering Committee

– Three from NOAA (one TPC), two from DOD, and two from Three from NOAA (one TPC), two from DOD, and two from the academic communitythe academic community

– TPC member serves as co-ChairTPC member serves as co-Chair

• Two quarter-time administrative assistants Two quarter-time administrative assistants (NOAA FTE) (NOAA FTE)

• One IT Facilitator (meteorologist/programmer) One IT Facilitator (meteorologist/programmer)

Computing ResourcesComputing Resources• Server and workstationsServer and workstations• SoftwareSoftware

Personnel Personnel • Quarter-time Director (NOAA FTE)Quarter-time Director (NOAA FTE)• 7-member Steering Committee7-member Steering Committee

– Three from NOAA (one TPC), two from DOD, and two from Three from NOAA (one TPC), two from DOD, and two from the academic communitythe academic community

– TPC member serves as co-ChairTPC member serves as co-Chair

• Two quarter-time administrative assistants Two quarter-time administrative assistants (NOAA FTE) (NOAA FTE)

• One IT Facilitator (meteorologist/programmer) One IT Facilitator (meteorologist/programmer)

Computing ResourcesComputing Resources• Server and workstationsServer and workstations• SoftwareSoftware

2222

TPC/ NHC

Priority1

JTWC Priority1

Operational Need1 Linkage to Research

Needs

1 1

Guidance for tropical cyclone intensity change, with highest priority on the onset, duration, and magnitude of rapid intensification events. Similar guidance is also needed on when rapid over-water weakening (such as had been observed in recent Gulf of Mexico hurricanes) will occur.

A1a-f, B1, B2, B3a-e,

B6, B7

2 2 Improved capability to observe the tropical cyclone and its environment to support forecaster analysis and model initialization.

B1, C1-C3

3 5 Statistically-based real-time guidance on guidance for track, intensity and precipitation (e.g., multi-model consensus approaches), provided to forecasters in probabilistic and other formats.

B5,B6

4 6 Enhancements to the operational environment to increase forecaster efficiency, by expediting analysis, forecast, coordination, and/or communication activities.

C1c

5 7 Additional operational guidance on coastal inundation (e.g., storm surge and waves).

A4, A5, B2, B3, B6

6 8

Improved and extended track guidance. Identification, and then reduction of, the occurrence of guidance and official track outliers, focusing on both large speed errors (e.g., accelerating recurvers and stalling storms) and large direction errors (e.g., loops), and on specific forecast problems, including interactions between upper-level troughs and tropical cyclones, track forecasts near mountainous areas, and extratropical transition.

A2, B1-B3, B5-B6

7 3 Guidance for tropical cyclone genesis that exhibits a high probability of detection and a low false alarm rate, and/or provides probability of genesis.

A3, B1-B3, B5-B7

8 9 Operational analysis of the surface wind field (including maximum sustained winds) in tropical cyclones. This also includes methods for forecasting the wind field over elevated terrain and high-rise buildings.

B1, B2, C1-C3

9 4 Guidance for changes in tropical cyclone size/wind structure and related parameters, including combined sea heights.

A1a-g, B1-B7

10 10 Guidance on the operational utility and relative merits of high-resolution model output compared to lower resolution ensemble model output.

B6, B7

11 11 Guidance for tropical cyclone precipitation amount and distribution. A4, B1-B7

12 12 Improved utility of microwave satellite and radar data in tropical cyclone analysis.

B1, C1c

13 13 Improved techniques for estimating the intensity of tropical cyclones passing over and north of sea-surface temperature gradients (e.g., in the eastern North Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic Gulf Stream).

C1

14 14 Quantitative guidance tools for seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts for the Atlantic and North Pacific basins, using statistical and/or dynamical methodologies.

A6,B2, B6

2323

Primary Area of FocusPrimary Area of Focus # of # of ProjectsProjects

Improvements to dynamical models (for track, Improvements to dynamical models (for track, intensity, and precipitation forecasts)intensity, and precipitation forecasts)

55

Statistical intensity forecast guidanceStatistical intensity forecast guidance 11

Enhancements to observed data, assimilationEnhancements to observed data, assimilation 00

Tropical cyclone structure/wind/wave distributionTropical cyclone structure/wind/wave distribution 22

Track forecast guidanceTrack forecast guidance 11

Enhancements to operational environmentEnhancements to operational environment 11

TotalTotal 1010

2008-present Major Activities2008-present Major Activities 4th Round Project Focus Areas4th Round Project Focus Areas

2008-present Major Activities2008-present Major Activities 4th Round Project Focus Areas4th Round Project Focus Areas

Cont.

2424

Currently-funded JHT projects mapped onto JTWC priorities (AFFO '09)

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

JTWC 1 JTWC 2 JTWC 3 JTWC 4 JTWC 5 JTWC 6 JTWC 7 JTWC 8 JTWC 9 JTWC 10 JTWC 11 JTWC 12 JTWC 13 JTWC 14

JTWC Priority

Man

-yea

rs